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DOE OSTI2024

Computationally efficient and error aware surrogate construction for numerical solutions of subsurface flow through porous media

Limiting the injection rate to restrict the pressure below a threshold at a critical location can be an important goal of simulations that model the subsurface pressure between injection and extraction wells. The pressure is approximated by the solution of Darcy’s partial differential equation for a given permeability field. The subsurface permeability is modeled as a random field since it is known only up to statistical properties. This induces uncertainty in the computed pressure. Solving the partial differential equation for an ensemble of random permeability simulations enables estimating a probability distribution for the pressure at the critical location. These simulations are computationally expensive, and practitioners often need rapid online guidance for real-time pressure management. An ensemble of numerical partial differential equation solutions is used to construct a Gaussian process regression model that can quickly predict the pressure at the critical location as a function of the extraction rate and permeability realization. The Gaussian process surrogate analyzes the ensemble of numerical pressure solutions at the critical location as noisy observations of the true pressure solution, enabling robust inference using the conditional Gaussian process distribution. Our first novel contribution is to identify a sampling methodology for the random environment and matching kernel technology for which fitting the Gaussian process regression model scales as O ( n log n ) instead of the typical O ( n 3 ) rate in the number of samples n used to fit the surrogate. The surrogate model allows almost instantaneous predictions for the pressure at the critical location as a function of the extraction rate and permeability realization. Our second contribution is a novel algorithm to calibrate the uncertainty in the surrogate model to the discrepancy between the true pressure solution of Darcy’s equation and the numerical solution. Finally, although our method is derived for building a surrogate for the solution of Darcy’s equation with a random permeability field, the framework broadly applies to solutions of other partial differential equations with random coefficients.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Monte Carlo Dropout Uncertainty Quantification of Long Short-Term Memory Autoencoder Anomaly Detection in a Liquid Sodium Cold Trap

Advanced high-temperature fluid reactors, such as sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs) and molten salt–cooled reactors (MSCRs), require coolant purification systems to prevent fluid contamination and local freezing that can lead to plugging. Liquid sodium purification can be achieved with a cold trap, where the sodium temperature is reduced to a near-freezing point to precipitate out impurities. Automation of monitoring of the cold trap performance with machine learning algorithms can aid in early detection of incipient anomalies. An efficient approach to loss-of-coolant–type anomaly detection in a cold trap monitored with more than two dozen thermal-hydraulic sensors consists of a long short-term memory (LSTM) autoencoder. This work develops the uncertainty quantification of the LSTM autoencoder performance for cold trap anomaly detection using the Monte Carlo (MC) dropout method. The MC dropout methodology creates a distribution of sister distributions that all slightly differ from each other because of random neurons being turned off for testing. The variances of the sister network distributions are used to make an uncertainty interval. Our analysis shows that the uncertainty in the autoencoder performance is largest near the peak of the anomaly signal. Using the MC dropout method, we investigate the uncertainty in the anomaly detection with missing sensor inputs. This capability allows the reactor operator to evaluate resilience of the anomaly detection system and to make informed decisions about continuity of operation in the event of sensor failure.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Forecasting of Generators Startups and Shutdowns in the MISO System Based on Random Forest

Solving security constrained unit commitment (SCUC) problems to plan an economical generation schedule for day-head electricity market has been an important research topic in recent years. Mixed integer programming method (MIP), the-state-of-art approach for solving SCUC problem, is known computationally hard when the number of binary status variables is large. In this paper, a machine learning-based algorithm - random forest (RF), was applied to forecast the startups (SU) and shutdowns (SD) hours of generators, based on historical hourly system condition observations in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) system. The main purpose is to reduce the number of binary status variables, by fixing the SU/SD hours to a narrow range of high confidence. This would significantly reduce the size of the decision space, and therefore speed up SCUC solutions with reduced uncertainty.

Lin, Xinming↗

DOE OSTI2015

Phase transitions of macromolecular microsphere composite hydrogels based on the stochastic Cahn–Hilliard equation

We use the stochastic Cahn–Hilliard equation to simulate the phase transitions of the macromolecular microsphere composite (MMC) hydrogels under a random disturbance. Based on the Flory–Huggins lattice model and the Boltzmann entropy theorem, we develop a reticular free energy suit for the network structure of MMC hydrogels. Taking the random factor into account, with the time-dependent Ginzburg-Landau (TDGL) mesoscopic simulation method, we set up a stochastic Cahn–Hilliard equation, designated herein as the MMC-TDGL equation. The stochastic term in the equation is constructed appropriately to satisfy the fluctuation-dissipation theorem and is discretized on a spatial grid for the simulation. A semi-implicit difference scheme is adopted to numerically solve the MMC-TDGL equation. Some numerical experiments are performed with different parameters. The results are consistent with the physical phenomenon, which verifies the good simulation of the stochastic term.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2016

Stochastic behavior of nanoscale dielectric wall buckling

The random buckling patterns of nanoscale dielectric walls are analyzed using a nonlinear multi-scale stochastic method that combines experimental measurements with simulations. The dielectric walls, approximately 200 nm tall and 20 nm wide, consist of compliant, low dielectric constant (low-k) fins capped with stiff, compressively stressed TiN lines that provide the driving force for buckling. The deflections of the buckled lines exhibit sinusoidal pseudoperiodicity with amplitude fluctuation and phase decorrelation arising from stochastic variations in wall geometry, properties, and stress state at length scales shorter than the characteristic deflection wavelength of about 1000 nm. The buckling patterns are analyzed and modeled at two length scales: a longer scale (up to 5000 nm) that treats randomness as a longer-scale measurable quantity, and a shorter-scale (down to 20 nm) that treats buckling as a deterministic phenomenon. Statistical simulation is used to join the two length scales. Through this approach, the buckling model is validated and material properties and stress states are inferred. In particular, the stress state of TiN lines in three different systems is determined, along with the elastic moduli of low-k fins and the amplitudes of the small-scale random fluctuations in wall properties—all in the as-processed state. The important case of stochastic effects giving rise to buckling in a deterministically sub-critical buckling state is demonstrated. The nonlinear multiscale stochastic analysis provides guidance for design of low-k structures with acceptable buckling behavior and serves as a template for how randomness that is common to nanoscale phenomena might be measured and analyzed in other contexts.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2015

Improved Sampling Algorithms in the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Toolkit

The RISMC approach is developing advanced set of methodologies and algorithms in order to perform Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRAs). In contrast to classical PRA methods, which are based on Event-Tree and Fault-Tree methods, the RISMC approach largely employs system simulator codes applied to stochastic analysis tools. The basic idea is to randomly perturb (by employing sampling algorithms) timing and sequencing of events and internal parameters of the system codes (i.e., uncertain parameters) in order to estimate stochastic parameters such as core damage probability. This approach applied to complex systems such as nuclear power plants requires to perform a series of computationally expensive simulation runs given a large set of uncertain parameters. These types of analysis are affected by two issues. Firstly, the space of the possible solutions (a.k.a., the issue space or the response surface) can be sampled only very sparsely, and this precludes the ability to fully analyze the impact of uncertainties on the system dynamics. Secondly, large amounts of data are generated and tools to generate knowledge from such data sets are not yet available. This report focuses on the first issue and in particular employs novel methods that optimize the information generated by the sampling process by sampling unexplored and risk-significant regions of the issue space: adaptive (smart) sampling algorithms. They infer system response from surrogate models constructed from existing samples and predict the most relevant location of the next sample. It is therefore possible to understand features of the issue space with a small number of carefully selected samples. In this report, we will present how it is possible to perform adaptive sampling using the RISMC toolkit and highlight the advantages compared to more classical sampling approaches such Monte-Carlo. We will employ RAVEN to perform such statistical analyses using both analytical cases but also another RISMC code: RELAP-7.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Noise Is Not Error: Detecting Parametric Heterogeneity Between Epidemiologic Time Series

Mathematical models play a central role in epidemiology. For example, models unify heterogeneous data into a single framework, suggest experimental designs, and generate hypotheses. Traditional methods based on deterministic assumptions, such as ordinary differential equations (ODE), have been successful in those scenarios. However, noise caused by random variations rather than true differences is an intrinsic feature of the cellular/molecular/social world. Time series data from patients (in the case of clinical science) or number of infections (in the case of epidemics) can vary due to both intrinsic differences or incidental fluctuations. The use of traditional fitting methods for ODEs applied to noisy problems implies that deviation from some trend can only be due to error or parametric heterogeneity, that is noise can be wrongly classified as parametric heterogeneity. This leads to unstable predictions and potentially misguided policies or research programs. In this paper, we quantify the ability of ODEs under different hypotheses (fixed or random effects) to capture individual differences in the underlying data. We explore a simple (exactly solvable) example displaying an initial exponential growth by comparing state-of-the-art stochastic fitting and traditional least squares approximations. We also provide a potential approach for determining the limitations and risks of traditional fitting methodologies. Finally, we discuss the implications of our results for the interpretation of data from the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in Africa.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A survey of unsupervised learning methods for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification in black-box-type problems

Constructing surrogate models for uncertainty quantification (UQ) on complex partial differential equations (PDEs) having inherently high-dimensional O(10 n ), n ≥ 2, stochastic inputs (e.g., forcing terms, boundary conditions, initial conditions) poses tremendous challenges. The “curse of dimensionality” can be addressed with suitable unsupervised learning techniques used as a pre-processing tool to encode inputs onto lower-dimensional subspaces while retaining its structural information and meaningful properties. In this work, we review and investigate thirteen dimension reduction methods including linear and nonlinear, spectral, blind source separation, convex and non-convex methods and utilize the resulting embeddings to construct a mapping to quantities of interest via polynomial chaos expansions (PCE). Here, we refer to the general proposed approach as manifold PCE (m-PCE), where manifold corresponds to the latent space resulting from any of the studied dimension reduction methods. To investigate the capabilities and limitations of these methods we conduct numerical tests for three physics-based systems (treated as black-boxes) having high-dimensional stochastic inputs of varying complexity modeled as both Gaussian and non-Gaussian random fields to investigate the effect of the intrinsic dimensionality of input data. We demonstrate both the advantages and limitations of the unsupervised learning methods and we conclude that a suitable m-PCE model provides a cost-effective approach compared to alternative algorithms proposed in the literature, including recently proposed expensive deep neural network-based surrogates and can be readily applied for high-dimensional UQ in stochastic PDEs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Determination of grain boundary mobility during recrystallization by statistical evaluation of electron backscatter diffraction measurements

One of the key aspects influencing microstructural design pathways in metallic systems is grain boundary motion. The present work introduces a method by means of which direct measurement of grain boundary mobility vs. misorientation dependence is made possible. The technique utilizes datasets acquired by means of serial electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) measurements. The experimental EBSD measurements are collectively analyzed, whereby datasets were used to obtain grain boundary mobility and grain aspect ratio with respect to grain boundary misorientation. The proposed method is further validated using cellular automata (CA) simulations. Single crystal aluminium was cold rolled and scratched in order to nucleate random orientations. Subsequent annealing at 300 °C resulted in grains growing, in the direction normal to the scratch, into a single deformed orientation. Growth selection was observed, wherein the boundaries with misorientations close to Σ7 CSL orientation relationship (38° 〈111〉) migrated considerably faster. The obtained boundary mobility distribution exhibited a non-monotonic behavior with a maximum corresponding to misorientation of 38° ± 2° about 〈111〉 axes ± 4°, which was 10–100 times higher than the mobility values of random high angle boundaries. Correlation with the grain aspect ratio values indicated a strong growth anisotropy displayed by the fast growing grains. The observations have been discussed in terms of the influence of grain boundary character on grain boundary motion during recrystallization. - Highlights: • Statistical microstructure method to measure grain boundary mobility during recrystallization • Method implementation independent of material or crystal structure • Mobility of the Σ7 boundaries in 5N Al was calculated as 4.7 × 10{sup –8} m{sup 4}/J ⋅ s. • Pronounced growth selection in the recrystallizing nuclei in Al • Boundary mobility values during recrystallization 2–3 orders of magnitude larger vis-à-vis curvature driven motion.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-G-IeP4-03: Cone Beam X-Ray Luminescence Computed Tomography Based On Generalized Gaussian Markov Random Field

Purpose: Cone beam X-ray luminescence computed tomography (CB-XLCT), which aims to achieve molecular and functional imaging by X-rays, has recently been proposed as a new imaging modality. However, the inverse problem of CB-XLCT is seriously ill-conditioned, hindering us to achieve good image quality. In this work, a novel reconstruction method based on Bayesian theory is proposed to tackle this problem Methods: Bayesian theory provides a natural framework for utilizing various kinds of available prior information to improve the reconstruction image quality. A generalized Gaussian Markov random field (GGMRF) model is proposed here to construct the prior model of the Bayesian theory. The most important feature of GGMRF model is the adjustable shape parameter p, which can be continuously adjusted from 1 to 2. The reconstruction image tends to have more edge-preserving property when p is slide to 1, while having more noise tolerance property when p is slide to 2, just like the behavior of L1 and L2 regularization methods, respectively. The proposed method provides a flexible regularization framework to adapt to a wide range of applications. Results: Numerical simulations were implemented to test the performance of the proposed method. The Digimouse atlas were employed to construct a three-dimensional mouse model, and two small cylinders were placed inside to serve as the targets. Reconstruction results show that the proposed method tends to obtain better spatial resolution with a smaller shape parameter, while better signal-to-noise image with a larger shape parameter. Quantitative indexes, contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) and full-width at half-maximum (FWHM), were used to assess the performance of the proposed method, and confirmed its effectiveness in CB-XLCT reconstruction. Conclusion: A novel reconstruction method for CB-XLCT is proposed based on GGMRF model, which enables an adjustable performance tradeoff between L1 and L2 regularization methods. Numerical simulations were conducted to demonstrate its performance.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Universality for 1d Random Band Matrices: Sigma-Model Approximation

The paper continues the development of the rigorous supersymmetric transfer matrix approach to the random band matrices started in (J Stat Phys 164:1233–1260, 2016; Commun Math Phys 351:1009–1044, 2017). We consider random Hermitian block band matrices consisting of W×W random Gaussian blocks (parametrized by j,k∈Λ=[1,n]{sup d}∩ℤ{sup d}) with a fixed entry’s variance J{sub jk}=δ{sub j,k}W{sup −1}+βΔ{sub j,k}W{sup −2}, β>0 in each block. Taking the limit W→∞ with fixed n and β, we derive the sigma-model approximation of the second correlation function similar to Efetov’s one. Then, considering the limit β,n→∞, we prove that in the dimension d=1 the behaviour of the sigma-model approximation in the bulk of the spectrum, as β≫n, is determined by the classical Wigner–Dyson statistics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dimension-adaptive machine learning-based quantum state reconstruction

Here, we introduce an approach for performing quantum state reconstruction on systems of n qubits using a machine learning-based reconstruction system trained exclusively on m qubits, where m ≥ n. This approach removes the necessity of exactly matching the dimensionality of a system under consideration with the dimension of a model used for training. We demonstrate our technique by performing quantum state reconstruction on randomly sampled systems of one, two, and three qubits using machine learning-based methods trained exclusively on systems containing at least one additional qubit. The reconstruction time required for machine learning-based methods scales significantly more favorably than the training time; hence this technique can offer an overall saving of resources by leveraging a single neural network for dimension-variable state reconstruction, obviating the need to train dedicated machine learning systems for each Hilbert space.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2015

Assessment of National Practice for Palliative Radiation Therapy for Bone Metastases Suggests Marked Underutilization of Single-Fraction Regimens in the United States

Purpose: To characterize temporal trends in the application of various bone metastasis fractionations within the United States during the past decade, using the National Cancer Data Base; the primary aim was to determine whether clinical practice in the United States has changed over time to reflect the published randomized evidence and the growing movement for value-based treatment decisions. Patients and Methods: The National Cancer Data Base was used to identify patients treated to osseous metastases from breast, prostate, and lung cancer. Utilization of single-fraction versus multiple-fraction radiation therapy was compared according to demographic, disease-related, and health care system details. Results: We included 24,992 patients treated during the period 2005-2011 for bone metastases. Among patients treated to non-spinal/vertebral sites (n=9011), 4.7% received 8 Gy in 1 fraction, whereas 95.3% received multiple-fraction treatment. Over time the proportion of patients receiving a single fraction of 8 Gy increased (from 3.4% in 2005 to 7.5% in 2011). Numerous independent predictors of single-fraction treatment were identified, including older age, farther travel distance for treatment, academic treatment facility, and non-private health insurance (P<.05). Conclusions: Single-fraction palliative radiation therapy regimens are significantly underutilized in current practice in the United States. Further efforts are needed to address this issue, such that evidence-based and cost-conscious care becomes more commonplace.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2015

Predicting Overall Survival After Stereotactic Ablative Radiation Therapy in Early-Stage Lung Cancer: Development and External Validation of the Amsterdam Prognostic Model

Purpose: A prognostic model for 5-year overall survival (OS), consisting of recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) and a nomogram, was developed for patients with early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (ES-NSCLC) treated with stereotactic ablative radiation therapy (SABR). Methods and Materials: A primary dataset of 703 ES-NSCLC SABR patients was randomly divided into a training (67%) and an internal validation (33%) dataset. In the former group, 21 unique parameters consisting of patient, treatment, and tumor factors were entered into an RPA model to predict OS. Univariate and multivariate models were constructed for RPA-selected factors to evaluate their relationship with OS. A nomogram for OS was constructed based on factors significant in multivariate modeling and validated with calibration plots. Both the RPA and the nomogram were externally validated in independent surgical (n=193) and SABR (n=543) datasets. Results: RPA identified 2 distinct risk classes based on tumor diameter, age, World Health Organization performance status (PS) and Charlson comorbidity index. This RPA had moderate discrimination in SABR datasets (c-index range: 0.52-0.60) but was of limited value in the surgical validation cohort. The nomogram predicting OS included smoking history in addition to RPA-identified factors. In contrast to RPA, validation of the nomogram performed well in internal validation (r{sup 2}=0.97) and external SABR (r{sup 2}=0.79) and surgical cohorts (r{sup 2}=0.91). Conclusions: The Amsterdam prognostic model is the first externally validated prognostication tool for OS in ES-NSCLC treated with SABR available to individualize patient decision making. The nomogram retained strong performance across surgical and SABR external validation datasets. RPA performance was poor in surgical patients, suggesting that 2 different distinct patient populations are being treated with these 2 effective modalities.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2022

AI and extreme scale computing to learn and infer the physics of higher order gravitational wave modes of quasi-circular, spinning, non-precessing black hole mergers

We use artificial intelligence (AI) to learn and infer the physics of higher order gravitational wave modes of quasi-circular, spinning, non precessing binary black hole mergers. We trained AI models using 14 million waveforms, produced with the surrogate model NRHybSur3dq8, that include modes up to $\ell$ ≤ 4 and (5,5), except for (4,0) and (4,1), that describe binaries with mass-ratios $\textit{q}$ ≤ 8, individual spins $s^z_{\{1,2\}} \in$[–0.8,0.8], and inclination angle $θ \in$ [0,π]. Our probabilistic AI surrogates can accurately constrain the mass-ratio, individual spins, effective spin, and inclination angle of numerical relativity waveforms that describe such signal manifold. We compared the predictions of our AI models with Gaussian process regression, random forest, k-nearest neighbors, and linear regression, and with traditional Bayesian inference methods through the PyCBC Inference toolkit, finding that AI outperforms all these approaches in terms of accuracy, and are between three to four orders of magnitude faster than traditional Bayesian inference methods. Our AI surrogates were trained within 3.4 hours using distributed training on 1,536 NVIDIA V100 GPUs in the Summit supercomputer.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Improvised Field Expedient Method for Renal Replacement Therapy in a Porcine Model of Acute Kidney Injury

ABSTRACT Objective: Dialysis patients may not have access to conventional renal replacement therapy (RRT) following disasters. We hypothesized that improvised renal replacement therapy (ImpRRT) would be comparable to continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) in a porcine acute kidney injury model. Methods: Following bilateral nephrectomies and 2 hours of caudal aortic occlusion, 12 pigs were randomized to 4 hours of ImpRRT or CRRT. In the ImpRRT group, blood was circulated through a dialysis filter using a rapid infuser to collect the ultrafiltrate. Improvised replacement fluid, made with stock solutions, was infused pre-pump. In the CRRT group, commercial replacement fluid was used. During RRT, animals received isotonic crystalloids and norepinephrine. Results: There were no differences in serum creatinine, calcium, magnesium, or phosphorus concentrations. While there was a difference between groups in serum potassium concentration over time ( P < 0.001), significance was lost in pairwise comparison at specific time points. Replacement fluids or ultrafiltrate flows did not differ between groups. There were no differences in lactate concentration, isotonic crystalloid requirement, or norepinephrine doses. No difference was found in electrolyte concentrations between the commercial and improvised replacement solutions. Conclusion: The ImpRRT system achieved similar performance to CRRT and may represent a potential option for temporary RRT following disasters.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗

DOE OSTI2015

The AMoRE: Search for neutrinoless double beta decay of {sup 100}Mo

The AMoRE (Advanced Mo-based Rare process Experiment) collaboration is using calcium molybdate ({sup dep48}Ca {sup 100}MoO{sub 4}) crystals enriched in {sup 100}Mo and depleted in {sup 48}Ca to search for neutrinoless double-beta decay (DBD) of {sup 100}Mo using at the underground laboratory in Korea. Metallic magnetic calorimeters operating a milliKelvin temperatures are used as temperature sensors to measure heat and light signals from the crystals. The simultaneous and fast detection capabilities for both phonons and photons, and their excellent energy resolution provide powerful methods for identifying DBD signals and rejecting background events, which are mainly due to random coincidences between two uncorrelated two-neutrino-double-beta decays of {sup 100}Mo. The AMoRE-Pilot experiment that is currently underway uses a 1.5 kg, five-element array of {sup dep48}Ca {sup 100}MoO{sub 4} crystals. The ultimate goal is a ∼200 kg array of crystals and a half-life sensitivity of order 10{sup 26} years, which will access the inverted hierarchy region for effective Majorana neutrino masses, i.e., 0.02 to 0.05 eV. In this talk, we present recent progress on the development of low-background calcium molybdate detectors and results from room- and milli-Kelvin temperatures. Sensitivities based on GEANT4 simulations that incorporate measured background are reported.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cross-correlation spectra in interacting quantum dot systems

Two-color spin-noise spectroscopy of interacting electron spins in singly charged semiconductor quantum dots provides information on the interquantum dot interactions. We investigate the spin cross-correlation function in a quantum dot ensemble employing a modified semiclassical approach. Spin-correlation functions are calculated using a Hamilton quaternion approach that maintains local quantum mechanical properties of the spins. This method takes into account the effects of the nuclear-electric quadrupolar interactions, the randomness of the coupling constants, and the variation of the electron g factor on the spin-noise power spectra. We demonstrate that the quantum dot ensemble can be mapped on an effective two-quantum dot problem and discuss how the characteristic length scale of the interdot interaction modifies the low-frequency cross-correlation spectrum. Here, we argue that details on the interaction strength distribution can be extracted from the cross-correlation spectrum when applying a longitudinal or a transversal external magnetic field.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗