Recurrent neural networks for short-term and long-term prediction of geothermal reservoirs
Accurate prediction of geothermal reservoir responses to alternative energy production scenarios is critical for optimizing the development of the underlying resources. While the conventional physics-based models offer a comprehensive prediction tool, data-driven models provide an efficient alternative to build fit-for-purpose predictive models by extracting and using the statistical patterns in the collected data to make predictions. The recurrent neural network (RNN) is a data-driven model that is commonly applied to predict time series sequences. This paper presents a variant of RNN that also utilizes the efficiency of convolutional neural networks (CNN) for the prediction of energy production from geothermal reservoirs. Specifically, a CNN–RNN architecture is developed that takes historical well controls as input (features) and their corresponding production response data as output (labels) to learn an input-output mapping that can predict the future well production responses/performance for any given future well control inputs. The model is paired with a labeling scheme to handle real field disturbances that create data gaps. In addition to the model structure, we introduce a thorough workflow for applying the model, which includes data pre-processing, feature selection, as well as different training strategies for short-term and long-term prediction. Finally, the performance and accuracy of the model are evaluated by applying it to multiple datasets, including a field reservoir model.