Using social simulations to train, test and evaluate ML models for social prediction.
Abstract not provided.
Lakkaraju, Kiran↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Using Social Simulations to Train, Test, and Evaluate Models for Social Prediction.
Abstract not provided.
Lakkaraju, Kiran↗
LA100 Equity Strategies. Chapter 7: Housing Weatherization and Resilience
The LA100 Equity Strategies project integrates community guidance with robust research, modeling, and analysis to identify strategy options that can increase equitable outcomes in Los Angeles' clean energy transition. This chapter focuses on housing weatherization and access to cooling as means to achieve more equitable resilience to heat waves during unplanned power outages. Specifically, NREL used weather, housing, and socioeconomic data to characterize LA's residential building stock. We?developed a residential building stock model to simulate the energy use of 50,000 dwellings representing the diversity of housing types, appliances, climate zones, and household incomes across Los Angeles. We then simulated and evaluated the impacts of 10 building envelope and cooling upgrades on indoor temperature - a main cause of heat-induced health risks-over a 4-day power outage during a heat wave. We examined occupant exposure to extreme heat and how heat exposure changes with each upgrade across income, tenure (renter/owner status), building type, and disadvantaged community (DAC) status. We also examined upgrade costs and utility bills. Based on the results of our analysis and community guidance, we identified building envelope upgrades and cooling strategies that could save lives and maintain safe home temperatures for LA's low-income households in the event of a planned or unplanned power outage during a summer heat wave. Research was guided by input from the community engagement process, and associated equity strategies are presented in alignment with that guidance.
building envelope↗
Assessing Nutrient and Carbon Responses to Agricultural Conservation Practices in Two Midwest Watersheds
The United States is undertaking efforts to transition to a low-carbon economy in response to the heightened impacts of climate change, which are largely attributed to decades of carbon-intensive development. A concerted effort by the energy sector to achieve net-zero carbon emissions is aimed at strategically reducing the carbon footprint of the energy supply chain, particularly in the production of feedstocks for biofuels. The production of biofuels relies heavily on land use and management practices in biomass cultivation. Among other factors, soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a crucial role in the biofuel carbon cycle, impacting land productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and water quality. The process of carbon drawdown during plant growth and storage helps to mitigate the release of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into the atmosphere. Another key parameter is the release of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) — a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential 273 times that of CO 2 — from soil. While prioritizing low-carbon production, sustainable bioenergy also necessitates improved water quality and ecosystem services. Agricultural conservation practices can contribute to enhanced soil health and reduce nutrient and sediment loss into streams. However, studies that explore the broader impact of these practices on soil carbon storage and N 2 O emissions at a watershed scale are limited. Specifically, our understanding of how low-carbon feedstock production and management affect nutrient cycle dynamics is incomplete. This study assesses watershed responses to land management practices in two agriculturally dominant watersheds: the Raccoon River watershed and the Southfork of Iowa River watershed. The study focuses on carbon and nutrient dynamics, characterizing spatial and temporal variations in SOC, N 2 O, and nutrient loadings to examine the relationship between nutrient and carbon responses and agricultural conservation practices. The study employs the newly developed Soil Water Analysis Tool for Carbon (SWAT-C) model, calibrated using 20 years’ of climate and water monitoring data, to simulate and evaluate two agricultural conservation practices: no-till and crop residue harvest with cover crop planting. We compared the calibrated SWAT-C model with a historical baseline model, which allowed us to analyze various aspects of the watershed, including stream flow, suspended sediments, nitrogen, phosphorus, organic carbon, SOC at different depths, and N 2 O emissions from topsoil. Our SWAT-C modeling results indicate that, compared with results from the historical baseline model, no-till practices are positively correlated with SOC accumulation, reduced N 2 O emissions, and decreased soil loss. We also observed no change or slightly increased nitrogen and phosphorus loss to water bodies in the watersheds compared with the baseline. Conversely, crop residue harvest with cover crop planting improved water quality by reducing nutrient and soil losses but also increased N 2 O emissions. This SWAT-C modeling study establishes the groundwork for further smaller-scale and/or sub-basin-level assessments of nitrogen, phosphorus, and carbon cycles. It provides valuable science-based insights to inform policy decisions — particularly in the context of transitioning to biofuel feedstock production in these watersheds — by addressing concerns about nutrient exports to local water bodies and, ultimately, the Mississippi River.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Communication-Constrained Robust Control and Learning of Grid-Connected
The electric grid of things (EGoT) promises great potential for innovative grid services by tapping into vast load flexibility. However, the unique characteristics of EGoT, being a part of the cyber-physical electric power system, present both opportunities and challenges, especially concerning supply-demand balancing, stability, and communication constraints. Traditionally, centralized control was employed to ensure balance and stability in power systems. However, with the massive influx of EGoT devices, new strategies are needed to efficiently coordinate and control these distributed devices for optimal grid operations. While some studies have explored efficiency and economic models, there remains a gap in ensuring reliability under everyday operations and resilience during extreme conditions. Addressing this gap, this project develops the technology for an Energy Service Interface (ESI) that includes novel pricing, control, learning, and distributed optimization algorithms, which will enable utilities to recruit EGoT assets for crucial grid services such as load flexibility, voltage regulation, and situation-awareness. The key novelty of the proposed technology is the careful distribution of learning and control functions across utility and EGoT asset owners such that provably efficient and resilient grid operations are attained while respecting communication and information-exchange constraints. Specifically, the project team develops machine-learning enhanced load modeling methods to allow EGoT asset owners to learn their load capability and flexibility, and develops pricing-based and decentralized learning-based control so that asset owners can coordinate to meet system-wide demand-supply balance and reliability goals. For extreme situations involving high-impact, low-probability catastrophic events (termed the “black-sky” events), the team also develops (1) a “Feeder-Operating Center-on-a-Laptop” (FOCAL) software that can assist utility personnel in leveraging EGoT assets to accelerate the service recovery of damaged feeders, and (2) distributed optimization algorithms that can coordinate the operation points of EGoT devices under severe communication constraints. The proposed technology has been extensively tested and evaluated through simulations and on a testbed. In summary, as we transition into a more interconnected and digital power grid era, our project’s findings and developments offer a pivotal step toward guaranteeing both efficiency and resilience in the face of both everyday operations and rare “black-sky” events.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Carbon Capture through Membranes - Leveraging Multiphysics Modeling, Dimensional Analysis and Machine Learning to Scale up and Optimize Devices and Processes for Decarbonization
We study the separation performance using membrane modules through dimensional analysis (DA). We formulate the main process equations to identify relevant dimensionless numbers inherent in the physics. In particular, we identify that the critical step in the separation process is mass transfer through the selective layer. Remarkably, the dimensionless feed flow (DFfeed) emerges as a crucial factor in describing this process. Not only does DFfeed directly appear in the governing equations, but it also holds a physical significance associated with the time scales for the mass transfer across the feed side and through the selective layer. Regarding the output performance variables, we consider the recovery, stage cut, productivity and purity. In this context, we profit from experimental data and CFD simulations to evaluate the separation performance of the modules when varying the input flowrate, the scale of the module, and the CO2 permeance. These datasets enable us to establish correlations between performance metrics and the dimensionless feed flow (DFfeed). Using simple power functions of DFfeed, we obtain R2 coefficients exceeding 0.99, indicating the accuracy of the correlations built in the present work. In the future, we wish to use DA to understand key transport mechanisms, predict and control module performance, and challenge the universality of these findings by testing various gas separations across different membrane modules beyond our case study.
Pedrozo, Hector A.↗
Modeling and Scaling up of Membrane Modules Leveraging Dimensional Analysis
In the current analysis, we study the separation performance using membrane modules through dimensional analysis (DA). We formulate the main process equations to identify relevant dimensionless numbers inherent in the physics. In particular, we identify that the critical step in the separation process is mass transfer through the selective layer. Remarkably, the dimensionless feed flow (DFfeed) emerges as a crucial factor in describing this process. Not only does DFfeed directly appear in the governing equations, but it also holds a physical significance associated with the time scales for the mass transfer across the feed side and through the selective layer. Regarding the output performance variables, we consider the recovery, stage cut, productivity and purity. In this context, we profit from experimental data and CFD simulations to evaluate the separation performance of the modules when varying the input flowrate, the scale of the module, and the CO2 permeance. These datasets enable us to establish correlations between performance metrics and the dimensionless feed flow. Using simple power functions of DFfeed, we obtain R2 coefficients exceeding 0.99, indicating the accuracy of the correlations built in the present work. In the future, we wish to use DA to understand key transport mechanisms, predict and control module performance, and challenge the universality of these findings by testing various gas separations across different membrane modules beyond our case study.
Pedrozo, Hector A.↗
03.02.02.45: Energy Efficiency Improvement Approaches in Ice Related Processes
The primary objective of this project was to facilitate the dislocation of the interfacial ice layer by employing advanced materials and ultrasonic vibration to reduce ice adhesion strength. This work employed two technical approaches that were thoroughly investigated and previously reported. The effectiveness of these approaches, both individually and in combination, has been quantified, demonstrating notable energy savings. The projected payback period for these enhancements is approximately 2.2 years or less, contingent upon specific energy costs. Furthermore, these advancements hold significant promise for reducing carbon emissions across various equipment scales. This study particularly focused on the ultrasonic deicing technique for diverse structures, utilizing numerical simulations to evaluate performance and potential benefits.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Rational sub-nanometer manipulation of polymer morphology for efficient chemical separations
The ability to control polymer morphology on the sub-nanometer length scale has broad implications for chemical separations. To achieve such control on easily processable systems, this proposal focuses on the synthesis and characterization of polymers containing appended labile moieties that are easily detached by thermolysis or UV irradiation deep within the glassy state. Once liberated, these moieties can diffuse from the polymer matrix as gaseous products, leaving behind templated pathways for selective diffusion and sorption of small molecules. With a specific target of creating polymeric membrane materials with unprecedented diffusion and (ad)sorption characteristics for chemical separations, synthesis of new materials will be complemented with advanced metrologies, simulations, and evaluation of thermodynamic and transport theory.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Technology Case Study: Economic, Sustainability, and Deployment Considerations for Sustainable Aviation Fuels Produced via Lignocellulosic Sugar Catalysis
This report presents a technology case study reflecting one exemplary representative pathway for the conversion of lignocellulosic sugars to sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) via aqueous phase reforming (APR) catalysis, considered within a broader integrated biorefinery framework based on biochemical processing operations. While far from the only option for converting sugars to SAF, this pathway was selected as a case study here based on its relatively high technology maturity and simplistic processing approach (avoiding complex separations or other equipment scalability challenges), coupled with the potential for high fuel yields and favorable costs/carbon intensities with opportunities for further near-term optimization. The report considers key process integration and engineering design considerations for a modeled hypothetical, nth-plant commercial biorefinery, reflecting a number of processing options and parameters envisioned to be achievable as future goals. Resultant outputs from Aspen Plus process simulations are evaluated through techno-economic and life cycle analyses (TEA and LCA), including implications for marginal cost of CO2 abatement and inclusion of currently-applicable policy incentives. Moving beyond base case configurations, a number of alternative scenarios are also evaluated for their ability to further improve economics, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and marginal cost of abatement, highlighting a path to achieve deep decarbonization goals of more than 70% GHG reduction for SAF (with the potential to reach net-negative carbon intensities in some cases) under reasonable fuel production costs. The report also highlights future opportunities and gaps for further research on this technology pathway.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Optical Fiber H2 Sensor Operating in Harsh Environments of Subsurface H2 Storage Reservoirs
Monitoring hydrogen concentration in the subsurface storage reservoirs is vital to ensure the integrity and safety of the storage facilities. An optical fiber hydrogen sensor consisting of a palladium-based sensing layer and a protective polymer layer was developed and evaluated in simulated subsurface hydrogen storage conditions. The developed optical fiber hydrogen sensor has demonstrated successful sensing performance at ~80 °C, ~1,000 psi, and ~100% RH. In addition, the sensor was exposed to real subsurface microbial samples in the harsh environments to monitor microbially induced changes in hydrogen concentration. The sensor has shown stable H2 sensing responses in the replicated underground hydrogen storage conditions without deterioration or loss of H2 sensitivity in the presence of biological samples.
filter layer↗
Feature Based Qualification of 17-4PH Stainless Steel to Evaluate Location-Specific Variability in Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing
Qualifying large-scale metal additive manufacturing (M-AM) technologies such as wire arc additive manufacturing (WAAM) can be challenging. This is especially significant in precipitation hardened martensitic stainless steels like SS 17-4PH, where thermal histories induce location-specific microstructural variability and property anisotropy. The Department of Defense (DOD) and the United States Army Combat Capabilities Development Command Ground Vehicle Systems Center (GVSC) Ground Vehicle Materials Engineering (GVME) aim to build robust and qualified large-scale M-AM workflows that could reduce the time and cost through quick and informed evaluation, testing, and development of feedstock, processes, and parts. The report presents the findings from the collaborative efforts between Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and the U.S. Army GVSC GVME. The aim of this project was to develop a geometric feature-based qualification framework for WAAM of SS 17-4PH components. This report outlines selection methodology of representative build geometries, optimization of WAAM process parameters, in-situ monitoring, microstructure-property evaluation, thermal simulations, as well as data visualization techniques incorporated in this project. The results from this project demonstrate a clear understanding of thermal history dependent phase evolution and consequent location-specific property variations in WAAM of SS 17-4PH. These results in conjunction with the data-driven methodologies used in this project are expected to reduce qualification timelines, improve predictability, and accelerate the development of reliable feature-based qualification strategies for part production via large-scale M-AM technologies.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Fast Adaptive Neural Control of Resonant Extraction at Fermilab
We present the development of a machine learning (ML) based regulation system for third-order resonant beam extraction in the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab. Classical and ML-based controllers have been optimized using semi-analytic simulations and evaluated in terms of regulation performance and training efficiency. We compare several controller architectures and discuss the integration of neural control into an adaptive framework. We also present progress on surrogate models that predict the controller response given a spill intensity and controller action history. To enable real-time deployment, we report progress on implementing low-latency, edge-based inference suitable for hardware-constrained environments. Our results demonstrate the feasibility and advantages of ML-based control in managing complex, time-varying physical systems, with broader implications for accelerator operations and other domains requiring fast, adaptive regulation.
Berlioz, Jose Rene [Fermilab]↗
Simulating Locally Recorded Earthquakes to Evaluate the Rock Valley Geologic Framework Model
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
On the connection between least squares, regularization, and classical shadows
Classical shadows (CS) offer a resource-efficient means to estimate quantum observables, circumventing the need for exhaustive state tomography. Here, we clarify and explore the connection between CS techniques and least squares (LS) and regularized least squares (RLS) methods commonly used in machine learning and data analysis. By formal identification of LS and RLS ``shadows'' completely analogous to those in CS---namely, point estimators calculated from the empirical frequencies of single measurements---we show that both RLS and CS can be viewed as regularizers for the underdetermined regime, replacing the pseudoinverse with invertible alternatives. Through numerical simulations, we evaluate RLS and CS from three distinct angles: the tradeoff in bias and variance, mismatch between the expected and actual measurement distributions, and the interplay between the number of measurements and number of shots per measurement. Compared to CS, RLS attains lower variance at the expense of bias, is robust to distribution mismatch, and is more sensitive to the number of shots for a fixed number of state copies---differences that can be understood from the distinct approaches taken to regularization. Conceptually, our integration of LS, RLS, and CS under a unifying ``shadow'' umbrella aids in advancing the overall picture of CS techniques, while practically our results highlight the tradeoffs intrinsic to these measurement approaches, illuminating the circumstances under which either RLS or CS would be preferred, such as unverified randomness for the former or unbiased estimation for the latter.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Review of Reactive Power Dispatch Strategies for Loss Minimization in a DFIG-based Wind Farm
This study reviews and compares the performance of reactive power dispatch strategies for the loss minimization of Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG)-based Wind Farms (WFs). Twelve possible combinations of three WF level reactive power dispatch strategies and four Wind Turbine (WT) level reactive power control strategies are investigated. All of the combined strategies are formulated based on the comprehensive loss models of WFs, including the loss models of DFIGs, converters, filters, transformers, and cables of the collection system. Optimization problems are solved by a Modified Particle Swarm Optimization (MPSO) algorithm. The effectiveness of these strategies is evaluated by simulations on a carefully designed WF under a series of cases with different wind speeds and reactive power requirements of the WF. The wind speed at each WT inside the WF is calculated using the Jensen wake model. The results show that the best reactive power dispatch strategy for loss minimization comes when the WF level strategy and WT level control are coordinated and the losses from each device in the WF are considered in the objective.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
A Comprehensive Analysis of Energy and Daylighting Impact of Window Shading Systems and Control Strategies on Commercial Buildings in the United States
Commercial buildings consume approximately 1.9 EJ of energy in the United States, 50% of which is for heating, cooling, and lighting applications. It is estimated that windows contribute up to 34% of the energy used for heating and cooling. However, window retrofits are not often undertaken to increase energy efficiency because of the high cost and disruptive nature of window installation. Highly efficient window technologies would also need shading devices for glare prevention and visual comfort. An automated window shading system with an appropriate control strategy is a technology that can reduce energy demand, maintain occupant comfort, and enhance the aesthetics and privacy of the built environment. However, the benefits of the automated shades currently used by the shading industry are not well studied. The topic merits an analysis that will help building owners, designers and engineers, and utilities make informed decisions using knowledge of the impact of this technology on energy consumption, peak demand, daylighting, and occupant comfort. This study uses integrated daylight and whole-building energy simulation to evaluate the performance of various control strategies that the shading industry uses in commercial office buildings. The analysis was performed for three different vintages of medium office buildings at six different locations in United States. The results obtained show the control strategies enabled cooling energy savings of up to 40% using exterior shading, and lighting energy savings of up to 25%. The control strategies described can help building engineers and researchers explore different control methods used to control shading in actual buildings but rarely discussed in the literature. This information will give researchers the opportunity to investigate potential improvements in current technologies and their performance.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Dynamic Control of Sodium Cold Trap Purification Temperature Using LSTM System Identification
This study investigates the dynamic regulation of the sodium cold trap purification temperature at Argonne National Laboratory’s liquid sodium test facility, employing long short-term memory (LSTM) system identification techniques. The investigation introduces an innovative hybrid approach by integrating model predictive control (MPC) based on first principles dynamic models with a multi-step time–frequency LSTM model in predicting the temperature profiles of a sodium cold trap purification system. The long short-term memory–model predictive controller (LSTM-MPC) model employs a sliding window scheme to gather training samples for multi-step prediction, leveraging historical data to construct predictive models that capture the non-linearities of the complex system dynamics without explicitly modeling the underlying physical processes. The performance of the LSTM-MPC and MPC were evaluated through simulation experiments, where both models were assessed on their capacity to maintain the cold trap temperature within predefined set-points while minimizing deviations and overshoots. Results obtained show how the data-driven LSTM-MPC model demonstrates stability and adaptability. In contrast, the traditional MPC model exhibits irregularities, particularly evident as overshoots around set-point limits, which can potentially compromise its effectiveness over long prediction time intervals. The findings obtained offer valuable insights into integrating data-driven techniques for enhancing real-time monitoring systems.
LSTM-MPC↗