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DOE OSTI2024

U.S. Average Corn Ethanol Production Baseline for 45Q Life Cycle Analysis Version 1.0 (2018-2022)

U.S. Average Benchmark life cycle inventory documentation for ethanol production for calendar years 2018 - 2022. The documentation includes a technical report describing data sources and statistical methods used and an Excel file showing calculations. The calculations performed are used in the 45Q benchmark json-ld dataset, compatible with the NETL CO2U LCA Guidance Toolkit. Summary impact results will be included in the NETL CO2U LCA Documentation Spreadsheet within the Toolkit. To access the model referenced in the report, please visit https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=55ab21f1-9238-4b63-9a7a-ae1a4cfa7b05.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Widespread underestimation of rain-induced soil carbon emissions from global drylands

Dryland carbon fluxes, particularly those driven by ecosystem respiration, are highly sensitive to water availability and rain pulses. However, the magnitude of rain-induced carbon emissions remains unclear globally. Here we quantify the impact of rain-pulse events on the carbon balance of global drylands and characterize their spatiotemporal controls. Using eddy-covariance observations of carbon, water and energy fluxes from 34 dryland sites worldwide, we produce an inventory of over 1,800 manually identified rain-induced CO2 pulse events. Based on this inventory, a machine learning algorithm is developed to automatically detect rain-induced CO2 pulse events. Our findings show that existing partitioning methods underestimate ecosystem respiration and photosynthesis by up to 30% during rain-pulse events, which annually contribute 16.9 ± 2.8% of ecosystem respiration and 9.6 ± 2.2% of net ecosystem productivity. We show that the carbon loss intensity correlates most strongly with annual productivity, aridity and soil pH. Finally, we identify a universal decay rate of rain-induced CO2 pulses and use it to bias-correct respiration estimates. Our research highlights the importance of rain-induced carbon emissions for the carbon balance of global drylands and suggests that ecosystem models may largely underrepresent the influence of rain pulses on the carbon cycle of drylands.

Nguyen, Ngoc B↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing fire emissions inventories for acute health effects studies: integrating high spatial and temporal resolution data

Daily fire progression information is crucial for public health studies that examine the relationship between population-level smoke exposures and subsequent health events. Issues with remote sensing used in fire emissions inventories (FEI) lead to the possibility of missed exposures that impact the results of acute health effects studies. This paper provides a method for improving an FEI dataset with readily available information to create a more robust dataset with daily fire progression. High temporal and spatial resolution burned area information from two FEI products are combined into a single dataset, and a linear regression model fills gaps in daily fire progression. The combined dataset provides up to 71% more PM 2.5 emissions, 69% more burned area, and 367% more fire days per year than using a single source of burned area information. The FEI combination method results in improved FEI information with no gaps in daily fire emissions estimates. The combined dataset provides a functional improvement to FEI data that can be achieved with currently available data.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

DOE OSTI2024

U.S. Average Nitrogen Fertilizer Production Baseline Documentation For 45Q Life Cycle Analysis: Version 1.0 (2018-2022)

U.S. Average Benchmark life cycle inventory documentation for nitrogenous fertilizer production for calendar years 2018 - 2022. The documentation includes a technical report describing data sources and statistical methods used and an Excel file showing calculations. The calculations performed are used in the 45Q benchmark json-ld dataset, compatible with the NETL CO2U LCA Guidance Toolkit. Summary impact results will be included in the NETL CO2U LCA Documentation Spreadsheet within the Toolkit. https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=7c0db05a-231e-40a5-b5fd-112a7c001834

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

U.S. Average Market Carbon Dioxide Production Baseline Documentation For 45Q Life Cycle Analysis: Version 1.0 (2018-2022)

U.S. Average Benchmark life cycle inventory documentation for market carbon dioxide production for calendar years 2018 - 2022. The documentation includes a technical report describing data sources and statistical methods used and an Excel file showing calculations. The calculations performed are used in the 45Q benchmark json-ld dataset, compatible with the NETL CO2U LCA Guidance Toolkit. Summary impact results will be included in the NETL CO2U LCA Documentation Spreadsheet within the Toolkit. To access the model referenced in the report, please visit https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=21915ba8-d2cf-43ea-b9b2-1d76363a46a7

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of a Combined Raffinate Waste Stream for Mo-99 Production

Niowave, Inc., based in Lansing, Michigan, intends to produce Mo-99 from the fission of low enriched uranium (LEU) targets. In FY20, SRNL was tasked to provide technical assistance in identifying the primary waste raffinate present in Niowave’s commercial scale system and evaluating methods for disposal. Due to limited information on Niowave’s complete flowsheet and isotope recovery plans, a combined raffinate stream including the entire radionuclide inventory from the irradiated fuel was used for this evaluation. Results of the evaluation indicated the majority of the waste generated can be expected to be Class A; however radioisotopes such as Pu-239, Cs-137, Sr-90, and some of the shorter lived (< 5 year half-life) may challenge Niowave’s ability to meet the waste acceptance criteria for land burial. With appropriate waste management strategies, it is probable that Niowave’s waste could meet Class C requirements for all constituents, with the possible exception of Pu-239. More detailed information of Niowave’s processes are needed to form a more accurate understanding required to execute and effective, economic, and feasible waste management strategy.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

Computationally-Aided Design of a Small-Scale Radioactive Waste Glass Melter

To provide mission support to the Hanford Waste Immobilization and Treatment Plant for the vitrification of legacy nuclear tank waste, a reduced-scale vitrification pilot system is being designed to process simulated and actual radioactive tank wastes. The tank waste will be separated into high-level waste (HLW) and low-activity waste (LAW) fractions, where the majority by mass (~90%) is LAW and by activity (>95%) is HLW. The first tank waste to be processed at the WTP will be LAW. Since Hanford tank waste and the resultant melter feed compositions are known to vary widely, pilot-scale operations are essential to identify potential problems, provide needed data, confirm assumptions, and determine impacts to full-scale melters and off-gas systems from these different feeds. In addition, the reduced-scale melter system must be capable of quickly providing results to operations without the typically high costs of radioactive operations and provide an engineering platform in close proximity to local operations staff. The objective is to produce similar process conditions to those encountered in the full-scale LAW melters and minimize the volume of radioactive waste necessary for the evaluations. To this end, melter design features are being explored to increase production without significantly increasing surface area, melter glass volumes or compromising data quality. In support of these objectives, a set of computational fluid dynamic models have been developed to provide insight into the flow patterns within these small melters and evaluate design features to increase production without significantly increasing glass inventory. Computed velocities were evaluated at the interface between the cold cap and the molten glass pool and within the bulk glass pool. A method was developed to correlate results to an estimated melt rate and down-select design features that produce the highest gains.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

Computationally-Aided Design of a Small-Scale Radioactive Waste Glass Melter

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Life cycle assessment of utilizing freshly cut urban wood: A case study

Large amounts of urban wood resources are generated through tree removals in urban areas. Therefore, there is a growing interest to improve the environmental performance of the urban wood supply chain by quantifying the environmental impacts of creating high-value products from urban tree removals to enhance its utilization. By surveying existing urban wood utilization operations for primary data in two major cities: Baltimore, Maryland, and Milwaukee, Wisconsin, a new life cycle inventory (LCI) dataset per m 3 of dry urban hardwood lumber and live edge slabs was created. Incorporating the new LCI data into life cycle assessment method, the total global warming (GW) impact of converting urban trees to kiln-dried lumber was estimated to be 122 kg CO 2 eq and 336 kg CO 2 eq per m 3 of lumber produced for Baltimore and Milwaukee, respectively. In both cases, the total environmental impact of the product was dominated by the conversion of urban trees to kiln dried lumber at the sawmill processing stage. Using scenario analysis for the source of heat generation used in kiln (force) drying wood, substituting wood fuel from coproducts for natural gas in a boiler for Milwaukee resulted in a substantial reduction in fossil-derived GW impact. Urban and traditional hardwood lumber production follow similar GW impact trajectories over their life-cycle stages with the lumber processing stage having the highest environmental impacts for both. Finally, increasing the overall lumber yield and decreasing kiln (force) drying would substantially improve the environmental performance of urban hardwood lumber and help make it comparable to traditional lumber.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Extending the Nuclide Inventory Validation Basis for High-Burnup Fuel with New Radiochemical Assay Data

Efforts are underway at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to improve the nuclide inventory validation basis for spent nuclear fuel at high burnups. Recently conducted radiochemical assay experiments provided new measurement data for nine samples of fuel irradiated in a pressurized water reactor, with estimated sample burnups in the 30 to 70 GWd/t range. This type of destructive assay data is essential for validating computational methods, tools, and nuclear data applied in nuclear safety analyses and for improving our understanding of the bias and uncertainty in code predictions. The measurement data include key actinides and fission products that span a gamut of needs and interests for nuclear science and engineering applications in criticality safety, reactor physics, nuclide inventory, decay heat, and radiation shielding. The SCALE 6.3 code system with ENDF/B-VII.1 cross-section libraries was used to simulate the irradiation histories of the measured fuel samples. The calculated nuclide concentrations are compared to corresponding measurement data. The significance of the comparisons is discussed, emphasizing how the addition of the new measurement data fills gaps in the validation basis at high burnups and contributes to the decrease in bias and uncertainty for predicted nuclide concentrations. The discussion addresses the effect of the sample burnup used in the simulation—which is based on reactor operator records or on calibration to measured data for burnup indicator fission products—on the validation results.

Nuclide inventory↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-fidelity Pebble Bed Reactor Depletion Based on Pebble Tracking Transport in Griffin

The pebble tracking transport (PTT) method is a high-fidelity, heterogeneous deterministic transport technique for pebble bed reactor analysis. It discretizes the broad-group neutron transport equation in space and angle with the discontinuous finite element and the discrete ordinates method, and utilizes various solving techniques, including mesh sweeping and diffusion acceleration, to provide pebble- wise reaction rates. This work presents the extension of the PTT method to enable fuel depletion capability in the Griffin code. We discuss the implementation details of the PTT-based high-fidelity depletion where isotope inventory of all individual pebbles is tracked through pre-determined pebble flow paths in the core. The implementation is verified with a generic pebble bed reactor model. Some preliminary equilibrium core results are included. Future works are also discussed.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Exploring the potential of using L-Band InSAR for the mapping of flooded vegetation in tropical wetlands

Wetlands play a critical role in global water and carbon cycles, yet monitoring their water extent remains difficult, particularly beneath dense vegetation. SAR-based techniques such as backscatter thresholding are limited by complex scattering mechanisms, while fully polarimetric SAR (PolSAR) data capable of detecting doublebounce scattering remain scarce. To address these challenges, this study evaluates the potential of Interferometric SAR (InSAR) for mapping water surfaces beneath vegetation, termed flooded vegetation, using the Atrato floodplain in Colombia as a case study. We develop an automated workflow combining InSAR fringe detection with local phase homogeneity analysis and random sampling of processing parameters to generate probabilistic flooded vegetation maps. Applied to ALOS PALSAR-1 L-band image pairs from 2007–2011, the workflow captures seasonal fluctuations in flooded extent ranging from 500 to 1,500 km2. Compared to other L-band SAR inundation products, the InSAR-based maps identify broader flooded areas, with ~70% agreement in pairwise comparisons. Around 84% of detections align with existing wetland inventories and seasonal changes correspond with regional hydrological indicators, including terrestrial water storage anomalies and water gauge measurements. PolSAR analysis shows that InSAR complements backscatter-based methods by detecting inundation in areas with weak double-bounce signals. These findings suggest that combining InSAR with backscatter-based methods can improve detection of flooded vegetation, which is especially relevant for the upcoming NISAR mission that will offer frequent global L-band observations.

Coastal inundation↗

DOE OSTI2024

LiAISON (Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models) [SWR-24-01]

We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE)7. We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Under baseline projections (i.e., no decarbonization goals), neither process reaches parity with the incumbent technology across several environmental metrics. Under the decarbonization scenarios, the underlying sectoral shifts result in declining impacts over time, compared to 2020 levels, except for metal depletion levels, which increase. The background shifts postulate a heavily decarbonized economy and energy system, which help technologies reach parity with SMR between 2040-2050 (RCP2.6) and 2030-2040 (RCP1.9) for global warming. Despite declines across several other metrics over time, neither PtH2 technology break even with SMR by 2100 besides for global warming. Scientific publication available here: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/acs.est.2c04246

Ghosh, Tapajyoti↗

DOE OSTI2021

Task 12 Sustainability - Methodological Guidelines on Net Energy Analysis of Photovoltaic Electricity (2nd Edition)

Net Energy Analysis (NEA) is a structured, comprehensive method of quantifying the extent to which a given energy source is able to provide a net energy gain (i.e., an energy surplus) to the end user, after accounting for all the energy losses occurring along the chain of processes that are required to exploit it (i.e., for its extraction, processing and transformation into a usable energy carrier, and delivery to the end user), as well as for all the additional energy 'investments' that are required in order to carry out the same chain of processes. However, this general framework leaves the individual practitioner with a range of choices that can affect the results and thus, the conclusions of a NEA study. The current IEA PVPS guidelines were developed to provide guidance on assuring consistency, balance, and quality to enhance the credibility and reliability of the results from photovoltaic (PV) NEAs. The guidelines represent a consensus among the authors - PV NEA experts in North America and Europe - for assumptions made on PV performance, process inputs and outputs, methods of analysis, and reporting of the results. Guidance is given on photovoltaic-specific parameters used as inputs in NEA and on choices and assumptions in inventory data analysis and on implementation of modelling approaches. A consistent approach towards system modelling, the functional unit, the system boundaries and allocation aspects enhance the credibility of PV electricity NEA studies and enables balanced NEA-based comparisons. Specifically, "apples-to-oranges" comparisons of different energy carriers (e.g., fuels vs. electricity) are not methodologically sound and are to be avoided in all cases; also, any comparison across renewable and non-renewable electricity generation technologies must clearly point out the intrinsically short-term nature of the NEA viewpoint, which does not capture the long-term sustainability implications of renewable vs. non-renewable primary energy harvesting and use: non-renewable primary energy resources are depleted and finally exhausted (irrespective of the size of the EROI), while renewable primary energy resources are not. This document provides an in-depth discussion of a common metric of NEA, namely the energy return on investment (EROI), and how this is to be interpreted vis-a-vis the deceptively similar-sounding metrics in the field of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA): cumulative energy demand (CED) and non-renewable cumulative energy demand (nr-CED) per unit output. Specifically, a number of key differences are highlighted between these metrics as applied to electricity production systems, which are listed in Table S-1.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Initial Testing of a Small Gamma Detector (GR1+) for Detection of Holdup in HEPA Filters

Measuring and assessing holdup is a key component of proper inventorying of a Material Balance Area (MBA). The Nuclear Material Control and Accountability (NMC&A) group at the Savannah River Site is responsible for ensuring that the methods used to determine holdup in the MBAs are valid for the conditions of that MBA. Holdup can be contained inside processing equipment or inside ventilation systems that that pulls air out of the glovebox through HEPA filters and stainless steel piping.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Prospective Impact Analysis of Novel Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 Degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics. The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Additionally we compare our results by linking two other prospective models with LiAISON - GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) and ReEDS (Regional Energy Deployment System) to analyze the effect of changing background scenarios using varying predictions in life cycle analysis.

decarbonizing↗

DOE OSTI2024

Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics. The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Under baseline projections (i.e., no decarbonization goals), neither process reaches parity with the incumbent technology across several environmental metrics. Under the decarbonization scenarios, the underlying sectoral shifts result in declining impacts over time, compared to 2020 levels, except for metal depletion levels, which increase. The background shifts postulate a heavily decarbonized economy and energy system, which help technologies reach parity with SMR between 2040-2050 (RCP2.6) and 2030-2040 (RCP1.9) for global warming. Despite declines across several other metrics over time, neither PtH2 technology break even with SMR by 2100 besides for global warming.

decarbonizing↗

DOE OSTI2024

Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 degrees C or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Under baseline projections (i.e., no decarbonization goals), neither process reaches parity with the incumbent technology across several environmental metrics. Under the decarbonization scenarios, the underlying sectoral shifts result in declining impacts over time, compared to 2020 levels, except for metal depletion levels, which increase. The background shifts postulate a heavily decarbonized economy and energy system, which help technologies reach parity with SMR between 2040-2050 (RCP2.6) and 2030-2040 (RCP1.9) for global warming. Despite declines across several other metrics over time, neither PtH2 technology break even with SMR by 2100 besides for global warming.

decarbonizing↗