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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Going With the Flow: Using a Particle Dispersion Model to Reveal Links Between Ocean Ecosystems and Marine Aerosols

Marine biogenic particle contributions to atmospheric aerosol concentrations are not well understood though they are important for determining cloud optical and cloud nucleating properties. Here we examine the relationship between marine aerosol measurements with satellite and model fields of ocean biology and meteorological variables during the North Atlantic Aerosols and Marine Ecosystems Study (NAAMES). NAAMES consisted of four field campaigns between November 2015 and April 2018 that aligned with the four major phases of the annual phytoplankton bloom cycle. The FLEXPART Lagrangian particle dispersion model is used to connect these variables spatiotemporally to ship-based aerosol. We find that correlations between some aerosol measurements with satellite measured and modelled variables increase with increasing trajectory length. This indicates biological and meteorological processes over the air mass history are influential to measured particle properties. For example, results show organic aerosol mass is driven by biogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions from photosynthesis by phytoplankton stocks during advection into the region. In contrast, primary marine aerosol (PMA) concentrations showed better correlations to variables weighted with shorter air mass residence times, which reflects their localized origin as primary emissions. Evidence also suggest variability in PMA concentrations likely play an important role in VOC emission removal. The removal of VOCs lessen their impact on particle number and mass concentrations. The sensitivity of marine aerosols to the main ecosystem-atmosphere drivers and its dependence on air mass history are to be further discussed.

Kevin J Sanchez↗
NASA NTRS1978

Effluent monitoring of the December 10, 1974, Titan 3-E launch at Air Force Eastern Test Range, Florida

Surface and airborne field measurements of the cloud behavior and effluent dispersion from a solid rocket motor launch vehicle are presented. The measurements were obtained as part of a continuing launch vehicle effluent monitoring program to obtain experimental field measurements in order to evaluate a model used to predict launch vehicle environmental impact. Results show that the model tends to overpredict effluent levels.

Wornom, D. E.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reduced Order Model to Predict Dispersion of Flammable Refrigerant into a Space

As the HVAC&R industry mobilizes to deploy more low-GWP refrigerants, relevant standards are being continually reviewed and updated. Those include the general safety standards ISO 5149 and ASHRAE 15, and the equipment standards IEC and UL. The standards systematically set the allowable maximum amount of refrigerant that should be used in different equipment types and different applications. To do so, they rely on predictions of how a leaked refrigerant mass will disperse into a space. Dispersion characteristics, such as total flammable volume and its residence time, determine the risk associated with the presence of the flammable refrigerant. The standards have included provisions for the use of flammable refrigerants for approximately two decades. They relied on limited analytical analyses and test cases in their development. Dispersion of a refrigerant into a space is complex. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) are the most accurate in predicting a given problem. However, CFD is computationally expensive and requires specialized expertise and resources and is not suitable for use by standards development working group as prediction tool. This paper presents the development of a reduced order model (ROM) that predicts the key dispersion characteristics relevant to the dispersion of a leaked refrigerant into a space for any combination of input variables. The inputs are the refrigerant release height, the total released refrigerant mass and its release flow rate, the refrigerant molecular weight, the ventilation flow rate, the floor area and height of the space, recirculation air flow rate, and the tightness of the space. The outputs are histograms of volume fraction of the room in prescribed concentration bins and the total mass of the refrigerant in each bin normalized by the total refrigerant charge at 13 prescribed simulation time stamps between 1 and 900 seconds. The ROM is constructed from a set of CFD simulations with carefully chosen combinations of input parameters. The selection if done using a multidimensional sparse grid which is a generalization of the classical tensor approach but offers additional flexibility and thus can be more carefully tuned towards a specific model. The tuning is done to improve the accuracy, measured in the difference between the output values of the ROM and the CFD model, while minimizing the computational cost, measured in number of CFD simulations which is orders of magnitude more expensive than the processing the training data.

Edwards, Dean↗
DOE OSTI2020

Computational Methods to Accelerate Development of Corrosion Resistant Coatings for Industrial Gas Turbines

Oxidation resistant overlay coatings protect the underlying superalloy component in industrial gas turbines from oxidation attack. Rate of depletion of the Al-rich β-phase in the bond coat governs the lifetime of these coatings. The applicability of a computational method in accelerating the development of corrosion resistant coatings and significantly reducing the extensive experimental effort to predict coating lifetimes and microstructural changes in three-coated Ni-based superalloys for real operational durations (20–40 kh) was undertaken in the present study. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX), and electron microprobe analysis (EPMA) were employed to characterize MCrAlY-coated superalloy substrates (1483, 247 and X4) after exposure at 900 °C in air + 10% H 2 O for up to 20,000 h. The model predicted the longest coating lifetime for the coating on X4 substrate. Precipitation of γ' in the coatings was correctly predicted for all three coating systems. Additionally, the model was able to predict the formation of topologically close packed (TCP)-phases in the investigated coating systems.

Pillai, Rishi R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Simulation and Optimization of Vacuum Swing Adsorption Units for Spacesuit Carbon Dioxide and Humidity Control

Controlling carbon dioxide (CO2) and humidity levels in a spacesuit is critical to ensuring both the safety and comfort of an astronaut during extra-vehicular activity (EVA). Traditionally, this has been accomplished utilizing either non-regenerative lithium hydroxide (LiOH) or regenerative but heavy metal oxide (MetOx) canisters which pose a significant weight burden. Although such technology enables air revitalization, the volume requirements to store the waste canisters as well as the mass to transport multiple units become prohibitive as mission durations increase. Consequently, motivation exists toward developing a fully regenerative technology for spacesuit environmental control. The application of solid amine materials with vacuum swing adsorption technology has shown the capacity to control CO2 while concomitantly managing humidity levels through a fully regenerative cycle eliminating constraints imposed with the traditional technologies. Prototype air revitalization units employing this technology have been fabricated in both a rectangular and cylindrical geometry. Experimental results for these test articles have been collected and are described herein. In order to accelerate the developmental efforts, an axially-dispersed plug flow model with an accompanying energy balance has been established and correlated with the experimental data. The experimental and simulation results display good agreement for a variety of flow rates (110-170 ALM), replicated metabolic challenges (100-590 Watts), and atmosphere pressures under consideration for the spacesuit (248 and 760 mm Hg). The testing and model results lend insight into the operational capabilities of these devices as well as the influence the geometry of the device has on performance. In addition, variable metabolic profiles were imposed on the test articles in order to assess the ability of the technology to transition to new metabolic conditions. The advent of the model provides the capacity to apply computer-aided engineering practices to support the ongoing efforts to optimize and mature this technology for future application to space exploration.

Swickrath, Michael J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learned Force Field Modeling of Metal Organic Frameworks for CO2 Direct Air Capture

Direct air capture (DAC) is a method for removing CO2 directly from air. Metal organic frameworks (MOFs) have been studied as DAC sorbent materials because of their structural and chemical diversity. Thermodynamic calculations using classical force fields are often used to evaluate MOFs for their performance in separations such as CO2 capture. Machine-learned force fields (MLFFs) can use machine learning to form quantitative relationships between a material’s chemical structure and the forces and energies predicted by more accurate quantum mechanical calculations, such as dispersion-corrected density functional theory (DFT). These descriptions of forces and energies can be used to improve the accuracy of adsorption calculations. In this work, classical models were used to pre-screen MOFs for CO2 capture. DFT calculations were then used to examine the adsorption mechanism. Next, MLFF models were developed for MOFs to achieve DFT-level accuracy for the forces and energies associated with MOF flexibility and CO2 adsorption. These methods were parametrized based on thousands of DFT calculations of CO2 in flexible MOFs and used to predict MOF structural properties as well as CO2 adsorption properties.

Findley, John↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Phenomenological Thermal Spray Wall Interaction Modeling Framework Applied to a High Temperature Ignition Assistant Device

Airborne compression ignition engines must operate with reliable ignition systems to achieve proper ignition at every cycle, particularly at high altitudes. Glow-plug-based ignition-assistant (IA) devices can provide the necessary energy to preheat the fuel and ensure ignitability of the fuel-air mixture. Ignitability of liquid sprays can be facilitated via direct impingement onto the hot IA surface, however this comes with adverse effects on the IA durability. Therefore, optimizing an IA’s design requires detailed understanding of the physics of fuel spray impingement of superheated surfaces. While spray impingement on relatively low wall temperatures has been extensively studied and appropriate numerical models have been proposed through the years, fundamental understanding of high-speed liquid spray impingement on superheated walls is still elusive. This work aims to formulate a phenomenological thermal spray-wall interaction framework for modeling the film-boiling-induced heat transfer, atomization, and dispersion of fuel spray droplets impinging onto a superheated IA device. A qualitative comparison of the new phenomenological model is performed against optical experiments from the literature of an F-24 fuel spray injected onto an IA device located 12 mm away from the injector tip. The temperature of the IA was set at 1400 K. The fuel injection pressure was 400 bar, while the ambient gas pressure and temperature were 30 bar and 800 K, respectively. The performance of the phenomenological model is evaluated in comparison with two other state-of-art models from the literature. A qualitative analysis of the different spray and fuel-air mixture characteristics is performed to outline the differences in the predictions offered by the new phenomenological model and the two state-of-art spray-wall interaction models.

droplet dispersion↗
DOE OSTI2020

The mechanisms and seasonal differences of the impact of aerosols on daytime surface urban heat island effect

The urban heat island intensity (UHII) is the temperature difference between urban areas and their rural surroundings. It is commonly attributed to changes in the underlying surface structure caused by urbanization. Air pollution caused by aerosol particles can affect the UHII through changing (1) the surface energy balance by the aerosol radiative effect (ARE) and (2) planetary-boundary-layer (PBL) stability and airflow intensity by modifying thermodynamic structure, which is referred to as the aerosol dynamic effect (ADE). By analyzing satellite data and ground-based observations collected from 2001 to 2010 at 35 cities in China and using the WRF-Chem model, we find that the impact of aerosols on UHII differs considerably: reducing the UHII in summer but increasing the UHII in winter. This seasonal contrast is proposed to be caused by the different strengths of the ARE and ADE between summer and winter. In summer, the ARE on UHII is dominant over the ADE, cooling down surface temperature more strongly in urban areas than in rural areas because of much higher aerosol loading, and offsets the urban heating, therefore weakening UHII. In winter, however, the ADE is more dominant, because aerosols stabilize the PBL more in the polluted condition, weakening the near-surface heat transport over urban areas in both vertical and horizontal directions. This means that the heat accumulated in urban areas is dispersed less effectively, and thus the UHII is enhanced. These findings shed new light on the impact of the interaction between urbanization-induced surface changes and air pollution on urban climate.urban areas and their rural surroundings. It is commonly attributed to changes in the underlying surface structure caused by urbanization. Air pollution caused by aerosol particles can affect the UHII through changing (1) the surface energy balance by the aerosol radiative effect (ARE) and (2) planetary-boundary-layer (PBL) stability and airflow intensity by modifying thermodynamic structure, which is referred to as the aerosol dynamic effect (ADE). By analyzing satellite data and ground-based observations collected from 2001 to 2010 at 35 cities in China and using the WRF-Chem model, we find that the impact of aerosols on UHII differs considerably: reducing the UHII in summer but increasing the UHII in winter. This seasonal contrast is proposed to be caused by the different strengths of the ARE and ADE between summer and winter. In summer, the ARE on UHII is dominant over the ADE, cooling down surface temperature more strongly in urban areas than in rural areas because of much higher aerosol loading, and offsets the urban heating, therefore weakening UHII. In winter, however, the ADE is more dominant, because aerosols stabilize the PBL more in the polluted condition, weakening the near-surface heat transport over urban areas in both vertical and horizontal directions. This means that the heat accumulated in urban areas is dispersed less effectively, and thus the UHII is enhanced. These findings shed new light on the impact of the interaction between urbanization-induced surface changes and air pollution on urban climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

NETL Mobile Emissions Laboratory

This presentation was given (virtually) at the workshop on Atmospheric Chemistry and Dispersion Modelling of Non-CO2 Emissions from Carbon Capture at the National Carbon Capture Center on November 21, 2024. The presentation describes capabilities of NETL's new mobile emissions laboratory trailer.

air emissions↗
DOE OSTI2020

AniMACCS User Guide

AniMACCS is a utility code in the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS) software suite that allows for certain MACCS output information to be visually displayed and overlaid onto a geospatial map background. AniMACCS was developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. MACCS is designed to calculate health and economic consequences following a release of radioactive material in the atmosphere. MACCS accomplishes this by modeling the atmospheric dispersion, deposition, and consequences of the release, which depend on several factors including the source term, weather, population, economic, and land-use characteristics of the impacted geographical area. From these inputs, MACCS determines the characteristics of the plume, as well as ground and air concentrations as a function of time and radionuclide.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine-Learned Force Field Modeling of Metal Organic Frameworks for CO2 Direct Air Capture

To cope with legacy greenhouse gas emissions and to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is funding efforts to develop direct air capture (DAC), a method for removing CO2 directly from air. Metal organic frameworks (MOFs) have been studied as DAC sorbent materials because of their structural and chemical diversity. Thermodynamic calculations using classical force fields are often used to screen MOFs for their performance in separations such as CO2 capture. Machine-learned force fields (MLFFs) can use machine learning to form quantitative relationships between a material’s chemical structure and the forces and energies predicted by more accurate quantum mechanical calculations, such as dispersion-corrected density functional theory (DFT). These descriptions of forces and energies can be used to improve the accuracy of adsorption calculations. In this work, MLFF models were developed for MOFs to achieve DFT-level accuracy for the forces and energies associated with MOF flexibility and CO2 adsorption. These methods were parametrized based on thousands of DFT calculations of CO2 in flexible MOFs and used to predict MOF structural properties as well as CO2 adsorption properties.

Findley, John↗
DOE OSTI2021

Numerical Investigation of Enhanced Dehumidification Processes By Using Dielectrophoresis Principles in Moist Airflows

Dispersed particle-laden flows are encountered in many building and industrial applications, such as flow in a fluidized bed, hydrocarbon transportation in pipelines, and the fouling of air-cooled heat exchangers (Kuruneru et al., 2016; Ray et al., 2019; Wang et al., 2019). Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) models have been developed in recent years to depict particle-fluid and particle-particle interactions in laminar or turbulent flows with increasing accuracy and stability. One particular particle-laden system of interest for moisture control is electrically-enhanced condensation in air and water droplet flows. Electrically-enhanced condensation consists of the use of highly charged water droplets injected in the moist air. The droplets become electric seeds that attract polar water vapor molecules to their surfaces and promote condensation. The nucleation and growth of the charged droplets deplete the vapor phase near a droplet, which is compensated for by the dielectrophoresis flow and diffusion. Dielectrophoresis flow involves surrounding vapor at a distance of about 10 to 100 nm for droplets charged by an electrospray compared to ~2 nm for a single electron charge in a droplet. As the vapor molecules collapse on the surface of the droplets, their initial electrical charge decreases with time due to the neutralization of the ions. While the physics of this phenomena is well known, engineering models for predicting the condensation rates are not available. This work computationally investigates dehumidification of moist airflow in a converging rectangular duct. The objective is to develop an engineering model that predicts water vapor condensation by employing dielectrophoresis principles. We construct a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model of the duct with electrically-enhanced condensation. The model is implemented in the open-source software OpenFOAM. We utilize the Multi-Phase Particle-In-Cell (MP-PIC) method coupled with a Population Balance Equation (PBE) approach to simulate the particle-laden system. This methodology is an Eulerian-Lagrangian approach used to simulate the droplets' behavior in the humid air. The MP-PIC approach (Andrews and O'Rourke, 1996) mitigates the computational cost by parceling several fundamental particles with similar properties (such as types, sizes, and temperature) into one computational particle. Thus, the billions of particles can be substituted by millions of computational particles without significant loss of information. The PBE was considered with the Lagrangian frame to combine the particle distribution function used in MP-PIC (Kim et al., 2020). This approach preserves mass and energy conservation between the phases in the Eulerian and Lagrangian structures. The PBE in this procedure was directly linked to the discrete parcels, making the simulation of the particle distribution computationally efficient and robust. The MP-PIC-PBE approach used in the present work was applied to the dehumidification of air. Water droplets were injected in the air stream and forced to grow according to experimentally derived correlation. The experiments were conducted on a converging duct with the same geometry and boundary conditions used to build the CFD model. This approach enabled us to approximate the effect of dielectrophoresis phenomena on the droplet and air interface. This presentation will discuss the details of the new CFD model built for the duct, the implementation of the model in OpenFOAM CFD programming language, and the experimental validation of the newly developed model. The results revealed a moderate yet measurable increase in droplet diameter due to water vapor condensation at the vapor-liquid interface of the electrically charged droplets' surface. The seed water droplet particles grew in size by capturing the water vapor in the surrounding air. The OpenFOAM model predicted reductions of humidity in the air from 5 to 10 percent.

Yel Mahi, Maliha↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of regional transport of PM2.5 during severe atmospheric pollution episodes in the western Yangtze River Delta, China

During winter 2018, the 16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province, Western Yangtze River Delta region, China had very high PM2.5 concentrations and prolonged pollution days. The impact of regional transport in the formation, accumulation, as well as dispersion of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in Anhui Province was very significant. This study quantified and analyzed the vertical transport of PM2.5 in three major cities (Hefei, Fuyang, and Suzhou) of Anhui Province in January and July 2018 using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The results of the inter-regional transport of PM2.5 revealed the dominant transport pathways for the three cities. The flux mainly flowed into Fuyang from Henan (2.23 and 1.42 kt/day in January and July, respectively) and Bozhou (1.96 and 1.21 kt/day in January and July, respectively), while the main flux from Fuyang flowed into Henan (-2.15 kt/day) and Lu'an (-1.91 kt/day) in January and Henan (-0.34 kt/day) and Bozhou (-0.29 kt/day) in July. In addition, the dominant transport pathways and the heights at which they occurred were identified: the northwest-southeast and northeast-south pathways in both winter and summer at both lower (?300 m) and higher (=300 m) levels for Fuyang; the northwest-south and northeast-southwest pathways in winter (at both lower and upper levels) and northwest-east and northeast-southwest pathways in summer at lower and upper levels for Hefei; and the northwest-southeast and northeast-south pathways in both winter (from 50 m up to the top level) and summer (between 100 and 300 m) for Suzhou. Furthermore, the intensities of daily PM2.5 transport fluxes in Fuyang during the atmospheric pollution episode (APE1) were stronger than the monthly average. These results show that joint emission controls across multiple cities along the identified pathways are urgently needed to reduce winter episodes.

Sulaymon, Ishaq D.↗
NASA NTRS1988

One-level modeling for diagnosing surface winds over complex terrain. II - Applicability to short-range forecasting

The Alpert and Getenio (1988) modification of the Mass and Dempsey (1985) one-level sigma-surface model was used to study four synoptic events that included two winter cases (a Cyprus low and a Siberian high) and two summer cases. Results of statistical verification showed that the model is not only capable of diagnosing many details of surface mesoscale flow, but might also be useful for various applications which require operative short-range prediction of the diurnal changes of high-resolution surface flow over complex terrain, for example, in locating wildland fires, determining the dispersion of air pollutants, and predicting changes in wind energy or of surface wind for low-level air flights.

Alpert, P.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Seismic properties of the crust and uppermost mantle of North America

Seismic refraction profiles for the North American continent were compiled. The crustal models compiled data on the upper mantle seismic velocity (P sub n), the crustal thickness (H sub c) and the average seismic velocity of the crystalline crust (V sub p). Compressional wave parameters were compared with shear wave data derived from surface wave dispersion models and indicate an average value for Poisson's ratio of 0.252 for the crust and of 0.273 for the uppermost mantle. Contour maps illustrate lateral variations in crustal thickness, upper mantle velocity and average seismic velocity of the crystalline crust. The distribution of seismic parameters are compared with a smoothed free air anomaly map of North America and indicate that a complidated mechanism of isostatic compensation exists for the North American continent. Several features on the seismic contour maps also correlate with regional magnetic anomalies.

Braile, L. W.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Mixing by barotropic instability in a nonlinear model

A global, nonlinear, equivalent barotropic model is used to study the isentropic mixing of passive tracers by barotropic instability. Basic states are analytical zonal-mean jets representative of the zonal-mean flow in the upper stratosphere, where the observed 4-day wave is thought to be a result of barotropic, and possibly baroclinic, instability. As is known from previous studies, the phase speed and growth rate of the unstable waves is fairly sensitive to the shape of the zonal-mean jet; and the dominant wave mode at saturation is not necessarily the fastest growing mode; but the unstable modes share many features of the observed 4-day wave. Lagrangian trajectories computed from model winds are used to characterize the mixing by the flow. For profiles with both midlatitude and polar modes, mixing is stronger in midlatitude than inside the vortex; but there is little exchange of air across the vortex boundary. There is a minimum in the Lyapunov exponents of the flow and the particle dispersion at the jet maximum. For profiles with only polar unstable modes, there is weak mixing inside the vortex, no mixing outside the vortex, and no exchange of air across the vortex boundary. These results support the theoretical arguments that, whether wave disturbances are generated by local instability or propagate from other regions, the mixing properties of the total flow are determined by the locations of the wave critical lines and that strong gradients of potential vorticity are very resistant to mixing.

Bowman, Kenneth P.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Impacts of Estimated Plume Rise on PM 2.5 Exceedance Prediction During Extreme Wildfire Events: A Comparison of Three Schemes (Briggs, Freitas, and Sofiev)

Plume height plays a vital role in wildfire smoke dispersion and the subsequent effects on air quality and human health. In this study, we assess the impact of different plume rise schemes on predicting the dispersion of wildfire air pollution and the exceedances of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) during the 2020 western United States wildfire season. Three widely used plume rise schemes (Briggs, 1969; Freitas et al., 2007; Sofiev et al., 2012) are compared within the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling framework. The plume heights simulated by these schemes are comparable to the aerosol height observed by the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO). The performance of the simulations with these schemes varies by fire case and weather conditions. On average, simulations with higher plume injection heights predict lower aerosol optical depth (AOD) and surface PM 2.5 concentrations near the source region but higher AOD and PM 2.5 in downwind regions due to the faster spread of the smoke plume once ejected. The 2-month mean AOD difference caused by different plume rise schemes is approximately 20 %–30 % near the source regions and 5 %–10 % in the downwind regions. Thick smoke blocks sunlight and suppresses photochemical reactions in areas with high AOD. The surface PM 2.5 difference reaches 70 % on the West Coast of the USA, and the difference is lower than 15 % in the downwind regions. Moreover, the plume injection height affects pollution exceedance (>35 µg m−3) predictions. Higher plume heights generally produce larger downwind PM 2.5 exceedance areas. The PM 2.5 exceedance areas predicted by the three schemes largely overlap, suggesting that all schemes perform similarly during large wildfire events when the predicted concentrations are well above the exceedance threshold. At the edges of the smoke plumes, however, there are noticeable differences in the PM 2.5 concentration and predicted PM 2.5 exceedance region. For the whole period of study, the difference in the total number of exceedance days could be as large as 20 d in northern California and 4 d in the downwind regions. This disagreement among the PM 2.5 exceedance forecasts may affect key decision-making regarding early warning of extreme air pollution episodes at local levels during large wildfire events.

Yunyao Li↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physical Controls on the Hydrology of Perennially Ice-Covered Lakes, Taylor Valley, Antarctica (1996–2013)

The McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, are a polar desert populated with numerous closed-watershed, perennially ice-covered lakes primarily fed by glacial melt. Lake levels have varied by as much as 8 m since 1972 and are currently rising after a decade of decreasing. Precipitation falls as snow, so lake hydrology is dominated by energy available to melt glacier ice and to sublimate lake ice. To understand the energy and hydrologic controls on lake level changes and to explain the variability between neighboring lakes, only a few kilometers apart, we model the hydrology for the three largest lakes in Taylor Valley. Here, we apply a physically based hydrological model that includes a surface energy balance model to estimate glacial melt and lake sublimation to constrain mass fluxes to and from the lakes. Results show that lake levels are very sensitive to small changes in glacier albedo, air temperature, and wind speed. We were able to balance the hydrologic budget in two watersheds using meltwater inflow and sublimation loss from the ice-covered lake alone. A third watershed, closest to the coast, required additional inflow beyond model uncertainties. We hypothesize a shallow groundwater system within the active layer, fed by dispersed snow patches, contributes 23% of the inflow to this watershed. The lakes are out of equilibrium with the current climate. If the climate of our study period (1996–2013) persists into the future, the lakes will reach equilibrium starting in 2300, with levels 2–17 m higher, depending on the lake, relative to the 2020 level.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗