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The Radio luminosity Function of Radio-Loud Quasars from the 7C Redshift Survey

We present a complete sample of 24 radio-loud quasars (RLQs) from the new 7C Redshift Survey. Every quasar with a low-frequency (151 MHz) radio flux-density S(sub 151) > 0.5 Jy in two regions of the sky covering 0.013 sr is included; 23 of these have sufficient extended flux to meet the selection criteria, 18 of these have steep radio spectra (hereafter denoted as SSQs). The key advantage of this sample over most samples of RLQs is the lack of an optical magnitude limit. By combining the 7C and 3CRR samples, we have investigated the properties of RLQs as a function of redshift z and radio luminosity L(sub 151). We derive the radio luminosity function (RLF) of RLQs and find that the data are well fitted by a single power-law with slope alpha(sub 1) = 1.9 +/- 0.1 (for H(sub 0) = 50 km/s.Mpc, OMEGA(sub M) = 1, OMEGA(sub DELTA) = 0). We find that there must be a break in the RLQ RLF at log(sub 10)(L(sub 151)/W Hz.sr) approximately < or = 27, in order for the models to be consistent with the 7C and 6C source counts. The z-dependence of the RLF follows a one-tailed gaussian which peaks at z = 1.7 +/- 0.2. We find no evidence for a decline in the co-moving space density of RLQs at higher redshifts. A positive correlation between the radio and optical luminosities of SSQs is observed, confirming a result of Serjeant. We are able to rule out this correlation being due to selection effects or biases in our combined sample. The radio-optical correlation and best-fit model RLF enable us to estimate the distribution of optical magnitudes of quasars in samples selected at low radio frequencies, We con- clude that for samples with S(sub 151) approximately < or = 1 Jy one must use optical data significantly deeper than the POSS-I limit (R approximately equal 20), in order to avoid severe incompleteness.

Willott, Chris J.↗

Cosmic-ray gradients from Pioneer-10 and Pioneer-11

The paper reports Pioneer 10 and 11 observations of the variation with heliocentric distance of the intensity of cosmic-ray protons, alpha particles, and high-Z nuclei with kinetic energies of at least 480 MeV/nucleon as well as cosmic-ray electrons with energies exceeding 6 MeV. The observations were with three-channel Cerenkov counters at distances between 1.02 and 4.66 AU while the spacecraft traveled from earth to Jupiter. During the 4.5-month observation period, all the counting rates rose steadily, except when they were modified by solar events, Forbush decreases, and Jovian electron events. Two methods are employed to determine the cosmic-ray integral intensity gradient for the observation period from simultaneous data obtained by the two spacecraft; effects of solar particles, Forbush decreases, and Jovian electrons are eliminated in various ways. A radial gradient of 0.15 + or - 2.3% per AU is determined, which is considered to be consistent with zero. Theoretical gradients are computed, and the observed values are found to be an order of magnitude below the expected values. Several reasons for the discrepancy are suggested.

Axford, W. I.↗

Nuclear emulsion measurements of the dose contribution from tissue disintegration stars on the Apollo-Soyuz mission

A total of 996 disintegration stars were prong-counted in two 100 micron llford K.2 emulsions from the dosimeter of the Docking Pilot on Apollo-Soyuz. The change of slope of the distribution at a prong number of about 6 or 7 indicates 219 stars as originating in gelatin. Applying the QF values set forth in official regulations to the energy spectra of the proton and a alpha prongs of the gelatin stars leads to a tissue star dose of 7.8 millirad or 45 millirem. The quoted values do not include the dose contribution from star-produced neutrons since neutrons do not leave visible prongs in emulsion. Nuclear theory, in good agreement with measurements of galactic radiation in the earth's atmosphere, indicates that the dose equivalent from neutrons is about equal to the one from all ionizing secondaries of stars. Application of this proposition to the star prong spectrum found on Apollo-Soyuz would set the total tissue star dose for the mission at approximately 90 millirem.

Schaefer, H. J.↗

Application of Neutron Multiplicity Counting Experiments to Optimal Cross-Section Adjustments

This paper presents the first application of model calibration to neutron multiplicity counting (NMC) experiments for cross-section optimization that is informed by adjoint-based sensitivity analysis (SA) and first-order uncertainty quantification (UQ). We summarize previous work on SA applied to NMC and describe notable modifications and additions. We give the procedure for first-order UQ and Bayesian-inference-based parameter estimation (PE). We then discuss model calibration applied to NMC of a 4.5-kg sphere of weapons-grade, alpha-phase plutonium metal (the BeRP ball) with the nPod neutron multiplicity counter. For the BeRP ball in bare and polyethylene-reflected configurations, we discuss the sensitivity of the first- and second-moment detector responses (i.e., first and second moments of the NMC distribution, respectively) to the cross sections. We describe the sources of uncertainty in the measured and simulated responses. Specifically, uncertainty in the measured responses is due to both random and systematic sources. Uncertainty in the simulated responses is due to the cross-section covariances. We describe in detail the adjustment to the cross sections and cross-section covariances due to the optimization. Due to the contribution of systematic uncertainties to the measured response uncertainties, the adjustment to the cross sections is similar in trend but larger in magnitude compared to that recommended by previous work. We compare the measured responses to responses simulated with nominal and optimized cross sections, demonstrating that the best-estimate cross sections produce simulations of NMC experiments that are more accurate with reduced uncertainty.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The Spitzer Survey of Interstellar Clouds in the Gould Belt. VI. The Auriga-California Molecular Cloud Observed with IRAC and MIPS

We present observations of the Auriga-California Molecular Cloud (AMC) at 3.6, 4.5, 5.8, 8.0, 24, 70 and 160 micrometers observed with the IRAC and MIPS detectors as part of the Spitzer Gould Belt Legacy Survey. The total mapped areas are 2.5 deg(exp 2) with IRAC and 10.47 deg2 with MIPS. This giant molecular cloud is one of two in the nearby Gould Belt of star-forming regions, the other being the Orion A Molecular Cloud (OMC). We compare source counts, colors and magnitudes in our observed region to a subset of the SWIRE data that was processed through our pipeline. Using color-magnitude and color-color diagrams, we find evidence for a substantial population of 166 young stellar objects (YSOs) in the cloud, many of which were previously unknown. Most of this population is concentrated around the LkH(alpha) 101 cluster and the filament extending from it. We present a quantitative description of the degree of clustering and discuss the fraction of YSOs in the region with disks relative to an estimate of the diskless YSO population. Although the AMC is similar in mass, size and distance to the OMC, it is forming about 15 - 20 times fewer stars.

Orion A Molecular Cloud (OMC)↗

Plant Hosts Modify Belowground Microbial Community Response to Extreme Drought

Drought stress negatively impacts microbial activity, yet the magnitude of stress responses is likely dependent on a diversity of belowground interactions. Populus trichocarpa individuals and no-plant bulk soils were exposed to extended drought (~0.03% gravimetric water content [GWC] after 12 days), rewet, and a 12-day “recovery” period to determine the effects of plant presence in mediating soil microbiome stability to water stress. Plant metabolomic analyses indicated that drought exposure increased host investment in C and N metabolic pathways (amino acids, fatty acids, phenolic glycosides) regardless of recovery. Several metabolites positively correlated with root-associated microbial alpha-diversity, but not those of soil communities. Soil bacterial community composition shifted with P. trichocarpa presence and with drought relative to irrigated controls, whereas soil fungal composition shifted only with plant presence. However, root fungal communities strongly shifted with drought, whereas root bacterial communities changed to a lesser degree. The proportion of bacterial water-stress opportunistic operational taxonomic units (OTUs) (enriched counts in drought) was high (~11%) at the end of drying phases and maintained after rewet and recovery phases in bulk soils, but it declined over time in soils with plants present. For root fungi, opportunistic OTUs were high at the end of recovery in drought treatments (~17% abundance), although relatively not responsive in soils, particularly planted soils (<0.5% abundance for sensitive or opportunistic). These data indicate that plants modulate soil and root-associated microbial drought responses via tight plant-microbe linkages during extreme drought scenarios, but trajectories after extreme drought vary with plant habitat and microbial functional groups.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Use of Compton suppression gamma ray spectrometry to determine 239 Pu

We report 239 Pu has been characterized by gamma-ray spectroscopy for a level higher than the usual environmental ones typically needing alpha spectrometry, ICP-MS or TIMS. The higher activities typically have applications in reprocessing, safeguards verification, and nuclear forensics. For activities of hundreds of Bq/g, it is possible to use gamma ray spectrometry for 239 Pu characterization. A soil reference standard of 185 Bq/g (75 ng/g) was measured on a 79% efficient HPGe with a digital Compton suppression system. The ratios of the counting statistics for suppressed and unsuppressed uncertainties for various 239 Pu photopeaks were determined. The effects of self-attenuation on the low energy gamma rays were evaluated, and it was determined that Compton suppression was an effective characterization method of 239 Pu after accounting for self-attenuation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Determination of the Far-Infrared Cosmic Background Using COBE/DIRBE and WHAM Data

Determination of the cosmic infrared background (CIB) at far infrared wavelengths using COBE/DIRBE data is limited by the accuracy to which foreground interplanetary and Galactic dust emission can be modeled and subtracted. Previous determinations of the far infrared CIB (e.g., Hauser et al. 1998) were based on the detection of residual isotropic emission in skymaps from which the emission from interplanetary dust and the neutral interstellar medium were removed. In this paper we use the Wisconsin H(alpha) Mapper (WHAM) Northern Sky Survey as a tracer of the ionized medium to examine the effect of this foreground component on determination of the CIB. We decompose the DIRBE far infrared data for five high Galactic latitude regions into HI- and H(alpha)- correlated components and a residual component. Eased on FUSE H2 absorption line observations, the contribution of a11 H2-correlated component is expected to he negligible. We find the H(alpha)-correlated component to be consistent with zero for each region, and we find that addition of an H(alpha)-correlated component in modeling the foreground emission has negligible effect on derived CIB results. Our CIB detections and 2(sigma) upper limits are essentially the same as those derived by Hauser et al. and are given by (nu)I(sub nu)(nW/sq m/sr) < 75, < 32, 25+/-8, and 13+/-3 at gamma = 60, 100, 140, and 240 microns, respectively. Our residuals have not been subjected to a detailed anisotropy test, so our CIB results do not supersede those of Hauser et al. Mie derive upper limits on the 100 micron emissivity of the ionized medium that are typically about 40% of the 100 micron emissivity of the neutral atomic medium. This low value may be caused in part by a lower dust-to-gas mass ratio in the ionized medium than in the neutral medium, and in part by a shortcoming of using H(alpha) intensity as a tracer of far infrared emission. If H(alpha) is not a reliable tracer, our analysis would underestimate the emissivity of the ionized medium, and both our analysis and the Hauser et al. analysis may slightly overestimate the CIB. We estimate the possible effect for the CIB to be only about 5%, which is much smaller than the quoted uncertainties. From a comparison of the Hauser et al. CIB results with the integrated galaxy brightness from Spitzer source counts, we obtain 2(sigma) upper limits on a possible diffuse CIB component that are 26 nW/sq m/sr at 140 microns and 8.5 nW/sq m/sr at 240 microns.

Odegard, N.↗

System for generating timing and control signals

A system capable of generating every possible data frame subperiod and delayed subperiod of a data frame of length of M clock pulse intervals (CPIs) comprised of parallel modulo-m sub i counters is presented. Each m sub i is a prime power divisor of M and a cascade of alpha sub i identical modulo-p sub i counters. The modulo-p sub i counters are feedback shift registers which cycle through p sub i distinct states. Every possible nontrivial data frame subperiod and delayed subperiod is derived and a specific CPI in the data frame is detected. The number of clock pulses required to bring every modulo-p sub i counter to a respective designated state or count is determined by the Chinese remainder theorem. This corresponds to the solution of simultaneous congruences over relatively prime moduli.

Perlman, M.↗

Hypergravity-Induced Changes in Hematological and Lymphocyte Function Parameters in a Mouse Model

The purpose of this study was to quantify hypergravity-induced changes in hematological and lymphocyte characteristics. Mice were subjected to 1, 2, and 3G and euthanized on days 1 , 4, 7, 10, and 21. The data show that increased gravitational force resulted in persistent hypothermia. Red blood cell (RBC) counts, hematocrit, and hemoglobin were reduced by day 21, whereas hemoglobin and RBC volume were low at most times of measurement. A transient increase was noted in platelet numbers in the 3G group. Fluctuations in spontaneous blastogenesis of lymphocytes were dependent upon centrifugation time and not gravity. Changes in splenocyte responses to T and B cell mitogens due to gravity were also noted. Cytokine production was primarily affected during the first week; IL-2, IL-4 and TNF-alpha were increased, whereas IFN-gamma was decreased. These findings indicate that altered gravity can influence both hematological and functional variables that may translate into serious health consequences.

Gridley, Daila S.↗

The stellar content of LH 9 and 10 (N11) in the LMC - A case for sequential star formation

The young OB associations Lucke-Hodge 9 and 10 are studied with UBV photometry that is independent of reddening to determine the IMF directly from star counts. The temperature and reddening of the stars are determined which, in conjunction with the spectroscopic classification of the earliest stars, is employed to place the stellar groups on the theoretical H-R diagram. Observations are also presented of the highly compact H II region/knot N11A and the multiple system HD 32228, and LH 9 and 10 are compared. The Lyman ionizing flux calculated at 4.9-7.2 x 10 exp 50/s agrees well with flux required to generate the H-alpha luminosity of the H II region. LH 10 has a much flatter slope, a higher ratio of higher-mass to lower-mass stars, and greater reddening than LH 9, and LH 10 contains all of the O stars earlier than O6. It is concluded that LH 9 is older than LH 10 and probably contributed to the initiation of star formation in LH 10.

Parker, Joel WM.↗

Computational Component Build-Up for the X-57 Distributed Electric Propulsion Aircraft

A computational study of the wing for the distributed electric propulsion X-57 Maxwell airplane configuration at cruise and takeoff/landing conditions was completed. Three unstructured-mesh, Navier-Stokes computational fluid dynamics methods, FUN3D, USM3D and Kestrel, were used to predict the performance buildup of components to the full X-57 configuration. The goal of the X-57 wing and distributed electric propulsion system design was to meet or exceed the required lift coefficient of 3.95 for a stall speed of 58 knots. The X-57 Maxwell airplane was designed with a small, high aspect ratio cruise wing that was designed for a high cruise lift coefficient of 0.75 at a cruise speed of 150 knots and altitude of 8,000 ft, with an angle of attack of approximately 0deg. The computational data indicates that the X-57 full aircraft drag would meet the cruise drag goal with a 25 count drag margin. The cruise configuration maximum lift coefficient is 2.07 and without including the stabilator is 1.86 at an angle of attack of 14 deg, predicted with the USM3D flow solver using the Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model. The maximum lift coefficient for the high-lift wing (with the 30deg flap deflection) without the stabilator contribution is 2.60 at an angle of attack of 13 deg. For high-lift blowing conditions with 13.7 hp/prop, the maximum lift coefficient excluding the stabilator is 4.426 at (alpha) = 13 deg. Therefore, the lift augmentation from the high-lift propellers is 1.7 and the total lift augmentation from the high-lift system (30 deg flap deflection and the high-lift blowing) is 2.38. The drag for the high-lift wing with 30 deg flap deflection is much higher than the cruise wing configuration, but the high-lift system is used only during a small portion of the flight envelope. The pitching moment is relatively constant for both blown and unblown conditions when the stabilator is excluded. Modeling the full geometry has indicated some adverse effects from the fuselage on the wing and stabilator. At high angles of attack, the solutions with the USM3D flow solver using the Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model indicates large flow separation on the wing upper surface between the two high-lift nacelles near the fuselage, and also a reduction in sectional lift on the stabilator in the first 50 percent of the stabilator semispan. However, the large flow separation near the fuselage is mostly eliminated in the solutions predicted with two codes, USM3D and Kestrel, using Hybrid Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes/Large Eddy Simulation turbulence models.

Deere, Karen A.↗

Seed surface sanitization and persistence of E.coli through different tissues of ‘Red Robin’ Tomato (Solanum lycopersicum cv. Red Robin)

Seed surface sanitization via chemical processes removes/reduces microbes from the external surfaces of the seed and thereby could have an impact on the plants’ health or productivity. To determine the impact of seed surface sanitization on the plants’ microbiome, sanitized and unsanitized seeds from ‘Red Robin’ Tomato (Solanumlycopersicum cv. Red Robin) were exposed to Escherichia coli (E. coli) and grown in a controlled environment growth chamber simulating environmental conditions aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Plants were harvested at four intervals, days 11, 33,42 and 76 post-germination. Changes in the microbial communities of leaf, stem, root, and fruit because of E. coli exposure and the persistence of E. coli itself were investigated using aerobic plate count (APC), qPCR and 16S rRNA sequencing. It was determined that E. coli persisted for longer periods of time in plants from sanitized versus unsanitized seeds and was identified in root tissue more frequently than in leaf or stem tissue. E. coli was not detected in fruits raised from either sanitized or unsanitized seeds. The 16S rRNA sequencing showed dynamic changes in the abundance of members of the phylum Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Actinobacteria, and Firmicutes in all tissue types studied. We observed minimal or no changes in the alpha diversity of leaf stem and fruit tissue with time, or between sanitized and unsanitized seeds. Roots showed significant differences in alpha diversity with time and seed sanitization status. Beta-diversity showed that time had more of an influence on all samples versus the E. coli treatment. Members of phyla Proteobacteria and Bacteroidetes were found to be differentially abundant across leaf, stem and root tissue. Our results indicated that the seed surface sanitization, although a requirement for sending seeds to space, might influence the developing microbiome. This research was funded by NASA’s Space Life and Physical Sciences Research and Applications.

Anirudha R Dixit↗

Lunar-surface UV Photometric Investigation of Exospheres (LUPINE): Thermal Modeling of Payload in a Relevant Daylit Environment

Direct upward remote sensing of the moon’s exosphere from a surface vantage can address production of water-related lunar volatiles as well as their exospheric loss, ballistic transport, and ultimate adsorption in permanently shadowed regions (PSRs). Far UV (FUV) dayside measurements of atomic oxygen, liberated from regolith by energetic solar protons and micrometeorite impact, can provide critical insight into the endogenic lunar water cycle by constraining total column density [O] at site of production. A notional Lunar-surface UV Photometric Investigation of Exospheres (LUPINE) instrument is designed to exploit solar-pumped atomic oxygen fluorescence at 130.4-nm, in a manner similar to the Apollo 17 UV Spectrometer (UVS) experiment [Fastie 1973; Feldman and Morrison, 1991] and the LRO Lyman-alpha Mapping Project (LAMP) spectrograph [Cook et al., 2013], by implementing a zenith-directed FUV photometer from the lunar surface at low (± 10°) selenographic latitude during the lunar day. Atomic oxygen production from solar energetic particle impact sources is thought to maximize in near solar noon [Sarantos et al., 2012], and the lander-embedded zenith-directed LUPINE photometer, in contrast to UVS and LAMP twilight measurements from orbit, can potentially capture the full column abundance of lunar regolith liberated oxygen. Herein we describe adaptation of FUV reflective optics, pulse-counting electronics, and scattered-light-suppression technologies developed for LEO FUV photometry for the challenging thermal environment of the daylit lunar surface. Preliminary thermal modeling and TVAC measurements of heritage FUV photometer components suggests that, if allowed to shed ~8W of waste heat into the bus of a reference Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) lander, the LUPINE photometer will be kept sufficiently cool to limit dark current to less than 20 counts/s. This level of dark signal enables an OI 130.4-nm 3-sigma detection threshold of ~1 mR for assumed 2-hour integrations.

Lunar UV Photometer↗

Delay Line Detectors for the UVCS and Sumer Instruments on the SOHO Satellite

Microchannel plate based detectors with cross delay line image readout have been rapidly implemented for the SUMER and UVCS instruments aboard the Solar Orbiting Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission to be launched in July 1995. In October 1993 a fast track program to build and characterize detectors and detector control electronics was initiated. We present the detector system design for the SOHO UVCS and SUMER detector programs, and results from the detector test program. Two deliverable detectors have been built at this point, a demonstration model for UVCS, and the flight Ly alpha detector for UVCS, both of which are to be delivered in the next few weeks. Test results have also been obtained with one other demonstration detector system. The detector format is 26mm x 9mm, with 1024 x 360 digitized pixels, using a low resistance Z stack of microchannel plates (MCP's) and a multilayer cross delay line anode (XDL). This configuration provides gains of approximately 2 x 10(exp 7) with good pulse height distributions (less than 50% FWHM) under uniform flood illumination, and background levels typical for this configuration (approximately 0.6 event cm (exp -2)sec(exp -1)). Local counting rates up to about 400 events/pixel/sec have been achieved with no degradation of the MCP gain. The detector and event encoding electronics achieves about 25 millimeter FVHM with good linearity (plus or minus approximately 1 pixel) and is stable to high global counting rates (greater than 4 x 10(exp 5) events sec(exp -1)). Flat field images are dominated by MCP fixed pattern noise and are stable, but the MCP multifiber modulation usually expected is uncharacteristically absent. The detector and electronics have also successfully passed both thermal vacuum and vibration tests.

Seigmund, O. H. W.↗

Spectral evolution of gamma-ray bursts

BATSE's Spectral Detectors provide a series of high resolution spectra over the duration of a gamma-ray burst; fits to these spectra show the evolution of the continuum as the burst progresses. The burst continuum can usually be fit by the spectral form AE sup alpha exp(-E/kT) from around 25 keV to more than 3 MeV, with varying trends in the value and evolution of the spectral parameters. As a result of limited statistics for E greater than 1 - 2 MeV in the individual spectra, a high energy power law is not required. Only long duration strong bursts can be studied by fitting a series of spectra, and therefore our conclusions concern only this class of burst. The bursts we analyzed tend to be characterized by a hard-to-soft trend both for individual intensity spikes and for the burst as a whole: the hardness leads the count rate in spectra which resolve the temporal variations, while the hardness of successive spikes decreases. We also summarize the performance of the Spectral Detectors and the development of analysis tools to date.

Band, D.↗

Project 57 Air Monitoring Report: (Jan 1 - Dec 31 2018)

During the late 1950s, the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) (now the U.S. Department of Energy [DOE]) conducted a series of safety experiments to determine if a nuclear device subjected to a large conventional explosives detonation would result in a nuclear yield. The AEC obtained temporary use of a large portion of western Emigrant Valley from the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) for one of these experiments: Project 57. Following the Project 57 safety experiment, the AEC fenced the contaminated area and returned control of the surrounding land to the DOD. Emigrant Valley is part of the Nevada Test and Training Range (NTTR). For safety and security reasons, access to the NTTR is controlled using both physical (i.e., fences) and administrative (e.g., signs and postings) controls. Therefore, the public cannot access the Project 57 site and there are no known human receptors that routinely access the site. Project 57 was detonated on April 24, 1957, in Emigrant Valley approximately 13 mi (21 km) northeast of the north end of Yucca Flat. This test was undertaken to develop: (1) a means of estimating immediate distribution and long-term redistribution of plutonium dispersed during a nonnuclear detonation; (2) biomedical evaluation techniques for use in likely plutonium-laden environments; (3) methods of decontaminating ground areas, pavements, and building materials; and (4) alpha survey instruments and field monitoring procedures to promptly estimate contaminant deposition. Although the test did not result in the fission of nuclear materials, it did disseminate plutonium across the ground surface. Various radiological surveys have been performed in the area since Project 57 was conducted. The AEC delineated the area containing radioactive material based on radioactivity surveys performed shortly after the test was conducted. A designated Contamination Area (CA), marked by a fence, was established later. The distribution of americium-241 (Am-241) in the area was determined again in a 1997 flyover, which showed Am-241 ranging from as much as 70,000 counts per second (cps) at ground zero to background (<70 cps). This survey also documented Am-241 radioactivity on the ground surface beyond the east side CA fence at levels of up to 150 cps. In 2007, the DOE expanded the CA by posting “Contamination Area” signs 200 ft to 400 ft (60 m to 120 m) beyond the original fence, which formed a new CA boundary.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The luminosity function of quasars

We propose a new evolutionary model for the optical luminosity function of quasars. Our analytical model is derived from fits to the empirical luminosity function estimated by Hartwick and Schade and Warren, Hewett, and Osmer on the basis of more than 1200 quasars over the range of redshifts 0 approximately less than z approximately less than 4.5. We find that the evolution of quasars over this entire redshift range can be well fitted by a Gaussian distribution, while the shape of the luminosity function can be well fitted by either a double power law or an exponential L(exp 1/4) law. The predicted number counts of quasars, as a function of either apparent magnitude or redshift, are fully consistent with the observed ones. Our model indicates that the evolution of quasars reaches its maximum at z approximately = 2.8 and declines at higher redshifts. An extrapolation of the evolution to z approximately greater than 4.5 implies that quasars may have started their cosmic fireworks at z(sub f) approximately = 5.2-5.5. Forthcoming surveys of quasars at these redshifts will be critical to constrain the epoch of quasar formation. All the results we derived are based on observed quasars and are therefore subject to the bias of obscuration by dust in damped Ly alpha systems. Future surveys of these absorption systems at z approximately greater than 3 will also be important if the formation epoch of quasars is to be known unambiguously.

Pei, Yichuan C.↗