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At least 109 records · Page 6

Geoid and topography for infinite Prandtl number convection in a spherical shell

Geoid anomalies and surface and lower-boundary topographies are calculated for numerically generated thermal convection for an infinite Prandtl number, Boussinesq, axisymmetric spherical fluid shell with constant gravity and viscosity, for heating both entirely from below and entirely from within. Convection solutions are obtained for Rayleigh numbers Ra up to 20 times the critical Ra in heating from below and 27 times critical for heating from within. Geoid parallels surface undulations, and boundary deformation generally increases with increasing cell wavelength. Dimensionless geoid and topography in heating from below are about 5 times greater than in heating from within. Values for heating from within correlate more closely with geophysical data than values from heating from below, suggesting a predominance of internal heating in the mantle. The study emphasizes that dynamically induced topography and geoid are sensitive to the mode of heating in the earth's mantle.

Bercovici, D.↗

GEOS S2S-2_1 File Specification: GMAO Seasonal and Sub-Seasonal Forecast Output

The NASA GMAO seasonal (9 months) and subseasonal (45 days) forecasts are produced with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model and Data Assimilation System Version S2S-2_1. The new system replaces version S2S-1.0 described in Borovikov et al (2017), and includes upgrades to many components of the system. The atmospheric model includes an upgrade from a pre-MERRA-2 version running on a latitude-longitude grid at approx. 1 degree resolution to a current version running on a cubed sphere grid at approximately 1/2 degree resolution. The important developments are related to the dynamical core (Putman et al., 2011), the moist physics (''two-moment microphysics'' of Barahona et al., 2014) and the cryosphere (Cullather et al., 2014). As in the previous GMAO S2S system, the land model is that of Koster et al (2000). GMAO S2S-2_1 now includes the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART, Colarco et al., 2010) single moment interactive aerosol model that includes predictive aerosols including dust, sea salt and several species of carbon and sulfate. The previous version of GMAO S2S specified aerosol amounts from climatology, which were used to inform the atmospheric radiation only. The ocean model includes an upgrade from MOM4 to MOM5 (Griffies 2012), and continues to be run on the tripolar grid at approximately 1/2 degree resolution in the tropics with 40 vertical levels. As in S2S-1.0, the sea ice model is from the Los Alamos Sea Ice model (CICE4, Hunke and Lipscomb 2010). The Ocean Data Assimilation System (ODAS) has been upgraded from the one described in Borovikov et al., 2017 to one that uses a modified version of the Penny, 2014 Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF), and now assimilates along-track altimetry. The ODAS also does a nudging to MERRA-2 SST and sea ice boundary conditions. The atmospheric data assimilation fields used to constrain the atmosphere in the ODAS have been upgraded from MERRA to a MERRA-2 like system. The system is initialized using a MERRA-2-like atmospheric reanalysis (Gelaro et al. 2017) and the GMAO S2S-2_1 ocean analysis. Additional ensemble members for forecasts are produced with initial states at 5-day intervals, with additional members based on perturbations of the atmospheric and ocean states. Both subseasonal and seasonal forecasts are submitted to the National MultiModel Ensemble (NMME) project, and are part of the US/Canada multimodel seasonal forecasts (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/). A large suite of retrospective forecasts (''hindcasts'') have been completed, and contribute to the calculation of the model's baseline climatology and drift, anomalies from which are the basis of the seasonal forecasts.

Seasonal Forecast↗

Linear Anomaly in Welded 2219-T87 Aluminum Alloy

Study of causes and significance of two types of linear anomalies sometimes appearing in radiographs of welds described in preliminary report. Manifested as light or dark linear features parallel to weld line in radiograph of weld. Contains diagrams and descriptions of phenomena occurring during welding process. Includes microdensitometer traces from x-radiographs of actual welds and from computer simulations based calculation of x-ray transmission through assumed weld structures. Concludes anomalies not unique to 2219-T87 aluminum alloy.

Jemian, Wartan A.↗

Characterizing the 2019-2021 Drought in La Plata River Basin With GLDAS and SMAP

Study region The La Plata River Basin (LPRB) is an area of interest, as there was a significant drought event from 2019 to 2021. With the LPRB being the second largest river basin in South America, this drought affected all aspects of life for over 100 million people who inhabit this area. Study focus In this study, we utilized satellite and model datasets to examine spatial and temporal variability of hydrological anomalies throughout the basin before and during the drought event. These variable anomalies, such as precipitation and groundwater, are derived from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Additionally, the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) observations were used in the spatial and temporal analysis of the drought. The water loss was calculated using the Mann-Kendall test to assess the changes in anomalies for the terrestrial water storage throughout the basin and subbasins. New hydrological insights for the region The main insight from this study is the agreement of the GLDAS anomalies with the SMAP data throughout the drought. The variable anomalies all decreased and showed alignment with the downscaled 1 km SMAP which shows alignment with the trends from in-situ observations. It was also found that the Upper Parana subbasin lost the most water over the drought period. These products improve understanding of the spatial variability within the entire basin and facilitate understanding of droughts and resources to assist in the future management of water resources.

La Plata Basin↗

Oceanwide gravity anomalies from Geos-3, Seasat and Geosat altimeter data

Three kinds of satellite altimeter data have been combined, along with 5 x 5 arcmin bathymetric data, to calculate a 0.125 deg ocean wide gridded set of 2.3 x 10 exp 6 free-air gravity anomalies. The procedure used was least squares collocation that yields the predicted anomaly and standard deviation. The value of including the bathymetric data was shown in a test around the Dowd Seamount where the root mean square (rms) difference between ship gravity measurements decreased from +/- 40 mgal to +/- 20 mgal when the bathymetry was included. Comparisons between the predicted anomalies and ship gravity data is described in three cases. In the Banda Sea the rms differences were +/- 20 mgal for two lines. In the South Atlantic rms differences over lines of 2000 km in length were +/- 7 mgal. For cruise data in the Antarctica region the discrepancies were +/- 12 mgal. Comparisons of anomalies derived from the Geosat geodetic mission data by Marks and McAdoo (1992) with ship dta gave differences of +/- 6 mgal showing the value of the much denser Geosat geodetic mission altimeter data.

Rapp, Richard H.↗

A global magnetic anomaly map

A subset of POGO satellite magnetometer data has been formed that is suitable for analysis of crustal magnetic anomalies. Using a thirteenth order field model, fit to these data, magnetic residuals have been calculated over the world to latitude limits of plus 50 deg. These residuals averaged over one degree latitude-longitude blocks represent a detailed global magnetic anomaly map derived solely from satellite data. Preliminary analysis of the map indicates that the anomalies are real and of geological origin.

Regan, R. D.↗

Comparison of theoretical and observed 3.55 cm wavelength brightness temperature maps of the full moon

In the present paper, a map of the moon's 3.33-cm thermal emission, constructed from observation data, is compared with a map calculated from a detailed model for regolith properties. In an 'observed minus predicted' difference map, two distinct anomalies, each approximately 2 K warmer than their surroundings, are detected. The anomalies are smaller in areal extent than the maria in which they are located (Tranquillitatis and Imbrium). A preliminary analysis, based on calculations of the effects of model parameters on observed brightness temperature, indicates that the two 'hotspots' can be explained by postulating that they are regions possessing a 30 to 40 percent higher than moon-average opacity and that their profile of physical temperature with depth is not necessarily anomalous. On a global scale, a pattern of 'maria warmer than highlands' is presented which exhibits a brightness temperature contrast of approximately 5 K.

Keihm, S. J.↗

Grain motions in the solar nebula

Isotopic analyses of meteorites suggest the possibility that some interaction between supernova ejecta and grains occurred in the solar nebula. In particular, the dynamics of grain motions in the solar nebula can explain the observed mixing of nucleosynthetic components. The effect of a shock wave on the motions of grains is examined. On the basis of calculations, it is estimated that if grains carried the isotopic anomalies investigated by Lee, Papanastassoiu, and Wasserburg (1978), then those grains could be no bigger than 0.0002 cm in size. A scenario is suggested in which the sluggishness of grains provides a natural way to concentrate and mix the nucleosynthetic components carried by grains in the ejecta and in the solar nebula.

Margolis, S. H.↗

Method for Real-Time Model Based Structural Anomaly Detection

A system and methods for real-time model based vehicle structural anomaly detection are disclosed. A real-time measurement corresponding to a location on a vehicle structure during an operation of the vehicle is received, and the real-time measurement is compared to expected operation data for the location to provide a modeling error signal. A statistical significance of the modeling error signal to provide an error significance is calculated, and a persistence of the error significance is determined. A structural anomaly is indicated, if the persistence exceeds a persistence threshold value.

Smith, Timothy A.↗

Developing a Remotely Sensed Drought Monitoring Indicator for Morocco

Drought is one of the most serious climatic and natural disasters inflicting serious impacts on the socio-economy of Morocco, which is characterized both by low-average annual rainfall and high irregularity in the spatial distribution and timing of precipitation across the country. This work aims to develop a comprehensive and integrated method for drought monitoring based on remote sensing techniques. The main input parameters are derived monthly from satellite data at the national scale and are then combined to generate a composite drought index presenting different severity classes of drought. The input parameters are: Standardized Precipitation Index calculated from satellite-based precipitation data since 1981 (CHIRPS), anomalies in the day-night difference of Land Surface Temperature as a proxy for soil moisture, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index anomalies from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and Evapotranspiration anomalies from surface energy balance modeling. All of these satellite-based indices are being used to monitor vegetation condition, rainfall and land surface temperature. The weighted combination of these input parameters into one composite indicator takes into account the importance of the rainfall-based parameter (SPI). The composite drought index maps were generated during the growing seasons going back to 2003. These maps have been compared to both the historical, in situ precipitation data across Morocco and with the historical yield data across different provinces with information being available since 2000. The maps are disseminated monthly to several main stakeholders' groups including the Ministry of Agriculture and Department of Water in Morocco.

Drought monitoring↗

Global Monitoring of Precipitation on Monthly and Shorter Time Scales Utilizing Low-Orbit and Geosynchronous Satellite Observations

A satellite-based system to monitor global precipitation on monthly and shorter time scales is described. The monitoring system is based primarily on the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) global, monthly, 2.5 degree by 2.5 degree latitude-longitude product which utilizes precipitation estimates from low-orbit microwave sensors (SSM/I) and geosynchronous IR sensors and raingauge information over land. The low-orbit microwave estimates are used to adjust or correct the geosynchronous IR estimates, thereby maximizing the utility of the more physically-based microwave estimates and the finer time sampling of the geosynchronous observations. Information from raingauges is blended into the analyses over land. This globally complete, monthly product is available from January 1986 to the present, with an extension back to January 1979 underway using non-SSM/I data. The monthly GPCP merged data product described in the previous paragraph is available a few (2-4) months after the end of the month. An analysis based solely on low-orbit microwave (SSM/1) data and the Goddard Profiling (GPROF) algorithm is used to bring the global monitoring up to real time. Anomalies from climatological means are produced from both the GPCP and GPROF fields to monitor the evolution of global precipitation, including the calculation of ENSO precipitation indices for real-time (five- day running means) climate monitoring and comparison with previous ENSO anomalies. The long-term climatology of the global precipitation field and the time and space variations thereof will be discussed, including the variations associated with the 1997- 1998 ENSO. The GPCP fields will also be compared to analyses based on the recently launched Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM). On an even shorter time scale, a new daily, 1 degree x 1 degree latitude-longitude global analysis has been developed starting in January 1997 utilizing low-orbit microwave and geosynchronous IR information using a similar method as is used to produce the monthly GPCP product. Retaining the overall small bias of the monthly product the daily product will allow greater utilization in the hydrology and other science communities.

Adler, Robert↗

Isotopic anomalies and proton irradiation in the early solar system

Nuclear cross sections relevant to the various isotopic-abundance anomalies found in solar-system objects are evaluated in an attempt to set constraints on the hypothesized mechanism of irradiation of forming planetesimals by energetic protons from the young sun. A power-law proton spectrum is adopted, attention is restricted to proton energies less than about 20 MeV, and average cross sections are calculated for several reactions that might be expected to lead to the observed anomalies. The following specific anomalies are examined in detail: Al-26, Na-22, Xe-126, I-129, Kr-80, V-50, Nb-92, La-138, Ta-180, Hg-196, K-40, Ar-36, O-17, O-18, N-15, C-13, Li, Be, and B. It is suggested that the picture of presolar-grain carriers accounts for the facts more naturally than do irradiation models.

Clayton, D. D.↗

Use of an expert system data analysis manager for space shuttle main engine test evaluation

The ability to articulate, collect, and automate the application of the expertise needed for the analysis of space shuttle main engine (SSME) test data would be of great benefit to NASA liquid rocket engine experts. This paper describes a project whose goal is to build a rule-based expert system which incorporates such expertise. Experiential expertise, collected directly from the experts currently involved in SSME data analysis, is used to build a rule base to identify engine anomalies similar to those analyzed previously. Additionally, an alternate method of expertise capture is being explored. This method would generate rules inductively based on calculations made using a theoretical model of the SSME's operation. The latter rules would be capable of diagnosing anomalies which may not have appeared before, but whose effects can be predicted by the theoretical model.

Abernethy, Ken↗

On the dynamics of droughts in northeast Brazil - Observations, theory and numerical experiments with a general circulation model

The establishment of a thermally direct local circulation which has its ascending branch at about 10 deg N and its descending branch over northeast Brazil and the adjoining oceanic region is proposed as a possible mechanism for the occurrence of severe droughts over this Brazilian region. The driving for this anomalous circulation is provided by enhanced moist convection due to the effect of warmer sea surface anomalies over the northern tropical Atlantic and cooling associated with colder sea surface temperature anomalies in the southern tropical Atlantic. A simple primitive equation model is used to calculate the frictionally-controlled and thermally-driven circulation due to a prescribed heating function in a resting atmosphere, and a series of numerical experiments are carried out to test the sensitivity of the Goddard Laboratory's model to prescribed sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropical Atlantic.

Moura, A. D.↗

Approximate angular distribution and spectra for geomagnetically trapped protons in low-earth orbit

The highly anisotropic nature of the radiation in the low-earth orbit has been ignored for most spacecraft shielding calculations made to date because the standard environmental models describe the omnidirectional flux only, because the varying attitude of the spacecraft in the environment is assumed to average out the effect and because of the added complexity of the calculation. The Space Station is planned to be stabilized with respect to the velocity vector and local vertical. Thus it will pass through the South Atlantic Anomaly where most of the radiation flux is encountered in much the same attitude on each pass. Any calculation including a complex shielding geometry should thus consider the angular distributuon of the incident radiation. An approximate trapped proton angular distribution is presented which includes both the 'pan caked' distribution relative to the magnetic field direction and the east-west effect which is energy dependent. This distribution is then used with a planar shielding geometry to obtain an estimate of the effect of the anisotropy on radiation dose rates in spacecraft.

Watts, J. W.↗

Planetary circulations in the presence of transient and self-induced heating

The research program focuses on large-scale circulations and their interaction with the global convective pattern. An 11-year record of global cloud imagery and contemporaneous fields of motion and temperature have been used to investigate organized convection and coherent variability of the tropical circulation operating on intraseasonal time scales. This study provides a detailed portrait of tropical variability associated with the so-called Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). It reveals the nature, geographical distribution, and seasonality of discrete convective signal, which is a measure of feedback between the circulation and the convective pattern. That discrete spectral behavior has been evaluated in light of natural variability of the ITCZ associated with climatological convection. A composite signature of the MJO, based on cross-covariance statistics of cloud cover, motion, and temperature, has been constructed to characterize the lifecycle of the disturbance in terms of these properties. The composite behavior has also been used to investigate the influence the MJO exerts on the zonal-mean circulation and the involvement of the MJO in transfers of momentum between the atmosphere and the solid Earth. The aforementioned observational studies have led to the production of two animations. One reveals the convective signal in band-pass filtered OLR and compares it to climatological convection. The other is a 3-dimensional visualization of the composite lifecycle of the MJO. With a clear picture of the MJO in hand, feedback between the circulation and the convective pattern can be diagnosed meaningfully in numerical simulations. This process is being explored in calculations with the linearized primitive equations on the sphere in the presence of realistic stability and shear. The numerical framework represents climatological convection as a space-time stochastic process and wave-induced convection in terms of the vertically-integrated moisture flux convergence. In these calculations, frictional convergence near the equator emerges as a key to feedback between the circulation and the convective pattern. At low latitudes, nearly geostrophic balance in the boundary layer gives way to frictional balance. This shifts the wave-induced convection into phase with the temperature anomaly and allows the attending heating to feed back positively onto the circulation. The calculations successfully reproduce the salient features of the MJO. They are being used to understand the growth and decay phases of the composite lifecycle and the conditions that favor amplification of the MJO.

Salby, Murry L.↗

The seasonal response of the Held-Suarez climate model to prescribed ocean temperature anomalies. I - Results of decadal integrations

Anomalies in ocean surface temperature have been identified as possible causes of variations in the climate of particular seasons or as a source of interannual climatic variability, and attempts have been made to forecast seasonal climate by using ocean temperatures as predictor variables. However, the seasonal atmospheric response to ocean temperature anomalies has not yet been systematically investigated with nonlinear models. The present investigation is concerned with ten-year integrations involving a model of intermediate complexity, the Held-Suarez climate model. The calculations have been performed to investigate the changes in seasonal climate which result from a fixed anomaly imposed on a seasonally varying, global ocean temperature field. Part I of the paper provides a report on the results of these decadal integrations. Attention is given to model properties, the experimental design, and the anomaly experiments.

Phillips, T. J.↗

Effect of anomalous transport coefficients on the thermal structure of the storm time auroral ionosphere

By analyzing an observed storm time auroral electron temperature profile it is shown that anomalous transport effects strongly influence the thermal structure of the disturbed auroral ionosphere. Such anomalous transport effects are a consequence of plasma turbulence, the existence of which has been established by a large number of observations in the auroral ionosphere. The electron and composite ion energy equations are solved with anomalous electron thermal conductivity and parallel electrical resistivity coefficients. The solutions are parameterized with respect to a phenomenological altitude-dependent anomaly coefficient A and are compared with an observed storm time electron temperature profile above Chatanika. The calculated temperature profile for the classical case (A = 1) disagrees considerably with the measured profile over most of the altitude range up to 450 km. It is shown that an anomaly coefficient with a sharp peak of the order of 10,000 centered around the F2 peak is consistent with observations.

Fontheim, E. G.↗