Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Anthropogenic impacts”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Increased Asian Sulfate Aerosol Emissions Remarkably Enhance Sahel Summer Precipitation

Observational evidence shows that Sahel summer precipitation has experienced a considerable increase since the 1980s, coinciding with significant diverging trends of increased sulfate emissions in Asia and decreased emissions in Europe (dipole pattern of aerosols between Asia and Europe). The decrease in European sulfate aerosols has substantial effects on the Sahel summer precipitation increase, but the corresponding effect of increased Asian sulfate is unknown. Multi-model simulations in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) show, compared to decreased European aerosols, that increased Asian aerosols similarly enhance the Sahel summer precipitation but with different large-scale atmospheric circulation changes. Further analysis of the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations under historical attribution and various emission scenarios reinforces the results about the climate impacts of anthropogenic aerosols and suggests that in future scenarios with strong international cooperation and rapid climate mitigations (SSP2-45), the Sahel drought will be intensified likely due to the decline in Asian aerosol emissions. Our results suggest that Asian anthropogenic aerosols are likely a non-negligible driver of the recent recovery in Sahel precipitation amounts

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Soft x-ray spectroscopy of ammonium sulfate aerosols at varied pH conditions

Aqueous aerosols are useful model systems for understanding the physical chemistry that takes place in the Earth’s atmosphere, as well as the chemistry of other solar system objects. Ammonium sulfate aerosols are impacted by anthropogenic sources such as farming and shipping and are understood to be important seeds of cloud nucleation in the atmosphere, affecting climate. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and near edge x-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy were used in tandem to probe the surface and bulk properties of aqueous (NH 4 ) 2 SO 4 , respectively. Aerosolized solutions of (NH 4 ) 2 SO 4 , some altered with NaOH to modify pH, were introduced via an aerodynamic lens to a velocity map imaging instrument for detection. The results show that as pH and sodium cation concentration increase, sulfate anion and ammonia become more prevalent at the surface, and the aerosol surface appears to become drier. However, most of the aerosol remains aqueous, with ion concentrations insensitive to the addition of NaOH. Density functional theory calculations were also performed to probe the coordination environment at the aerosol surfaces to understand the underlying phenomena. Finally, the changes seen on the surface of the aerosol underscore the importance of pH in regulating the structure and chemical properties of atmospherically relevant aerosols.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Increased frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past half-century

We demonstrate a tripling in the frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past halfcentury, coinciding with the rise in persistent boreal summer weather extremes. This increase aligns with changes in the underlying climate conditions favoring these events, including amplified Arctic warming and land-sea thermal contrast. We also observe increased prevalence of resonant amplification events following the mature phase of strong El Niño events, suggesting that such events may precondition the mean state conditions in ways that favor large-scale quasi-stationary wave patterns and quasi-resonant wave amplification. Since the impact of anthropogenic warming on quasi-resonant amplification is not well captured by current-generation climate models, it is likely that models are underpredicting the potential increase, indicating even greater risk of persistent extreme summer weather events with ongoing warming.

Arctic amplification↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mixing and dilution controls on marine CO 2 removal using alkalinity enhancement

Marine CO 2 removal (CDR) using enhanced-alkalinity seawater discharge was simulated in the estuarine waters of the Salish Sea, Washington, US. The high-alkalinity seawater would be generated using bipolar membrane electrodialysis technology to remove acid and the alkaline stream returned to the sea. Response of the receiving waters was evaluated using a shoreline resolving hydrodynamic model with biogeochemistry, and carbonate chemistry. Two sites, and two deployment scales, each with enhanced TA of 2997 mmol m -3 and a pH of 9 were simulated. The effects on air-sea CO 2 flux and pH in the near-field as well as over the larger estuary wide domain were assessed. The large-scale deployment (addition of 164 Mmoles TA yr -1 ) in a small embayment (Sequim Bay, 12.5 km 2 ) resulted in removal of 2066 T of CO 2 (45% of total simulated) at rate of 3756 mmol m -2 yr -1 , higher than the 63 mmol m -2 yr -1 required globally to remove 1.0 GT CO 2 yr -1 . It also reduced acidity in the bay, ΔpH ≈ +0.1 pH units, an amount comparable to the historic impacts of anthropogenic acidification in the Salish Sea. The mixing and dilution of added TA with distance from the source results in reduced CDR rates such that comparable amount 2176 T CO 2 yr -1 was removed over >1000 fold larger area of the rest of the model domain. There is the potential for more removal occurring beyond the region modeled. The CDR from reduction of outgassing between October and May accounts for as much as 90% of total CDR simulated. Of the total, only 375 T CO 2 yr -1 (8%) was from the open shelf portion of the model domain. With shallow depths limiting vertical mixing, nearshore estuarine waters may provide a more rapid removal of CO 2 using alkalinity enhancement relative to deeper oceanic sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Time series methods for the analysis of soundscapes and other cyclical ecological data

Biodiversity monitoring has entered an era of ‘big data’, exemplified by a near-continuous collection of sounds, images, chemical and other signals from organisms in diverse ecosystems. Such data streams have the potential to help identify new threats, assess the effectiveness of conservation interventions, as well as generate new ecological insights. However, appropriate analytical methods are often still missing, particularly with respect to characterizing cyclical temporal patterns. Here, we present a framework for characterizing and analysing ecological responses that represent nonstationary, complex temporal patterns and demonstrate the value of using Fourier transforms to decorrelate continuous data points. In our example, we use a framework based on three approaches (spectral analysis, magnitude squared coherence, and principal component analysis) to characterize differences in tropical forest soundscapes within and across sites and seasons in Gabon. By reconstructing the underlying, cyclic behaviour of the soundscape for each site, we show how one can identify circadian patterns in acoustic activity. Soundscapes in the dry season had a complex diel cycle, requiring multiple harmonics to represent daily variation, while in the wet season there was less variance attributable to the daily cyclic patterns. Our framework can be applied to most continuous, or near-continuous ecological data collected at a fine temporal resolution, allowing ecologists to explore patterns of temporal autocorrelation at multiple levels for biologically meaningful trends. Such methods will become indispensable as biological big data are used to understand the impact of anthropogenic pressures on biodiversity and to inform efforts to mitigate them.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Short-term exposure to elevated suspended sediment increases oxygen uptake of gilled larval Eastern Hellbender ( Cryptobranchus alleganiensis ) salamanders

Freshwater ecosystems are increasingly impacted by anthropogenic elevated levels of suspended sediment that may negatively affect aquatic organisms, including salamanders. Although increasing fine sediment in streams has been suggested as a reason for population declines, to date no study has empirically assessed the effect of suspended sediment on gilled larval Eastern Hellbenders (Cryptobranchus alleganiensis (Sonnini de Manoncourt and Latreille, 1801)), a critical life-history stage and a species of conservation concern. We used custom respirometers to elucidate effects of suspended sediments on larval Eastern Hellbender oxygen uptake in trials conducted in situ in Georgia (USA) streams. Mean oxygen uptake increased and was significantly higher in trials when larval salamanders were exposed to suspended sediment (mean = 5.06 mg O 2 /L for 800 mg/L of sediment treatment vs. 2.25 mg O 2 /L for 0.00 mg/L of sediment control). This may indicate elevated physiological stress in response to short-term exposure to suspended sediments. Qualitatively, individuals in both groups exhibited rocking behavior in response to low oxygen (hypoxia), albeit at different frequencies (sediment exposure = 7.6 rocks/min and control = 2.1 rocks/min). Larval salamanders may be able to temporarily compensate for low oxygen through increased rocking behavior when high suspended sediment loads are present, with future respirometry research needed.

hypoxia↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Succession of Cloud, Precipitation, Aerosol and Air Quality Field Experiments in the Coastal Urban Environment

The interactions and feedbacks among clouds, aerosols, pollutants, and the thermodynamic and kinematic environment remains an area of active research with important implications for our understanding of climate, weather and air quality. These linkages are further complicated in coastal and urban environments where local circulations and anthropogenic influences impact each of these components and their interactions. Within this context, fundamental questions regarding the lifecycle of convective clouds, aerosols and pollutants have brought together a diverse, integrated, and interagency collaboration of scientists to collect and analyze measurements, in the Houston, Texas, area, from the summer of 2021 through the summer of 2022, with subsequent modeling studies to address these important research objectives. Herein, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Facility and Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Program, the National Science Foundation’s (NSF) Physical and Dynamic Meteorology Program, the National Aeronautic and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Tropospheric Composition Research and Health and Air Quality Applied Sciences Programs and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) are collaborating on a joint set of field campaigns to study the interactions of cloud, aerosol, and pollutants within the coastal, urban environment. In the Houston area, onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico and the associated sea breeze circulation generates numerous isolated convective cells, particularly in the summer months, that interact with a variety of urban and industrial emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Background Magnetic Fields at Marine Energy Sites: Challenges and Recommendations

Unknowns around the environmental effects of marine renewable energy have slowed the deployment of this emerging technology worldwide. Established testing methods are necessary to safely permit and develop marine energy devices. Magnetic fields are one potential cause of environmental effects and are created when electricity is generated and transmitted to shore. Further, the existing variation of the background magnetic field at sites that may be developed for marine energy is largely unknown, making it difficult to assess how much additional stress or impact the anthropogenic magnetic field may have. This study investigates two instruments for their ability to characterize the background magnetic fields at a potential marine energy site in Sequim Bay, WA. Based on this evaluation, this study recommends an Overhauser magnetomer for assessing the background magnetic field and demonstrates the use of this sensor at a potential marine energy site.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impacts of cloud microphysics parameterizations on simulated aerosol–cloud interactions for deep convective clouds over Houston

Aerosol–cloud interactions remain largely uncertain with respect to predicting their impacts on weather and climate. Cloud microphysics parameterization is one of the factors leading to large uncertainty. Here, we investigate the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on the convective intensity and precipitation of a thunderstorm occurring on 19 June 2013 over Houston with the Chemistry version of Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF-Chem) using the Morrison two-moment bulk scheme and spectral bin microphysics (SBM) scheme. We find that the SBM predicts a deep convective cloud that shows better agreement with observations in terms of reflectivity and precipitation compared with the Morrison bulk scheme that has been used in many weather and climate models. With the SBM scheme, we see a significant invigoration effect on convective intensity and precipitation by anthropogenic aerosols, mainly through enhanced condensation latent heating. Such an effect is absent with the Morrison two-moment bulk microphysics, mainly because the saturation adjustment approach for droplet condensation and evaporation calculation limits the enhancement by aerosols in (1) condensation latent heat by removing the dependence of condensation on droplets and aerosols and (2) ice-related processes because the approach leads to stronger warm rain and weaker ice processes than the explicit supersaturation approach.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

National CO 2 budgets (2015–2020) inferred from atmospheric CO 2 observations in support of the global stocktake

Accurate accounting of emissions and removals of CO 2 is critical for the planning and verification of emission reduction targets in support of the Paris Agreement. Here, we present a pilot dataset of country-specific net carbon exchange (NCE; fossil plus terrestrial ecosystem fluxes) and terrestrial carbon stock changes aimed at informing countries' carbon budgets. These estimates are based on “top-down” NCE outputs from the v10 Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) modeling intercomparison project (MIP), wherein an ensemble of inverse modeling groups conducted standardized experiments assimilating OCO-2 column-averaged dry-air mole fraction (X CO 2 ) retrievals (ACOS v10), in situ CO 2 measurements or combinations of these data. The v10 OCO-2 MIP NCE estimates are combined with “bottom-up” estimates of fossil fuel emissions and lateral carbon fluxes to estimate changes in terrestrial carbon stocks, which are impacted by anthropogenic and natural drivers. These flux and stock change estimates are reported annually (2015–2020) as both a global 1° x 1° gridded dataset and a country-level dataset and are available for download from the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites' (CEOS) website. Across the v10 OCO-2 MIP experiments, we obtain increases in the ensemble median terrestrial carbon stocks of 3.29–4.58 Pg CO2 yr -1 (0.90–1.25 Pg C yr -1 ). This is a result of broad increases in terrestrial carbon stocks across the northern extratropics, while the tropics generally have stock losses but with considerable regional variability and differences between v10 OCO-2 MIP experiments. We discuss the state of the science for tracking emissions and removals using top-down methods, including current limitations and future developments towards top-down monitoring and verification systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of the ParFlow–CLM CONUS 1.0 integrated hydrologic model: evaluation of hyper-resolution water balance components across the contiguous United States

Abstract. Recent advancements in computational efficiency and Earth system modeling have awarded hydrologists with increasingly high-resolution models of terrestrial hydrology, which are paramount to understanding and predicting complex fluxes of moisture and energy. Continental-scale hydrologic simulations are, in particular, of interest to the hydrologic community for numerous societal, scientific, and operational benefits. The coupled hydrology–land surface model ParFlow–CLM configured over the continental United States (PFCONUS) has been employed in previous literature to study scale-dependent connections between water table depth, topography, recharge, and evapotranspiration, as well as to explore impacts of anthropogenic aquifer depletion to the water and energy balance. These studies have allowed for an unprecedented process-based understanding of the continental water cycle at high resolution. Here, we provide the most comprehensive evaluation of PFCONUS version 1.0 (PFCONUSv1) performance to date by comparing numerous modeled water balance components with thousands of in situ observations and several remote sensing products and using a range of statistical performance metrics for evaluation. PFCONUSv1 comparisons with these datasets are a promising indicator of model fidelity and ability to reproduce the continental-scale water balance at high resolution. Areas for improvement are identified, such as a positive streamflow bias at gauges in the eastern Great Plains, a shallow water table bias over many areas of the model domain, and low bias in seasonal total water storage amplitude, especially for the Ohio, Missouri, and Arkansas River basins. We discuss several potential sources for model bias and suggest that minimizing error in topographic processing and meteorological forcing would considerably improve model performance. Results here provide a benchmark and guidance for further PFCONUS model development, and they highlight the importance of concurrently evaluating all hydrologic components and fluxes to provide a multivariate, holistic validation of the complete modeled water balance.

O'Neill, Mary M. F. (ORCID:0000000221455165)↗
DOE OSTI2020

An effective survey method for studying volant species activity and behavior at tall structures

The effects of anthropogenic modification of air space on wildlife, particularly volant species, is not fully understood. Thus, it is essential to understand wildlife-interactions with tall structures to implement effective mitigation strategies. Yet, we are currently lacking standard protocols for visual surveys of wildlife behavior at such heights. Our study sought to determine an effective, repeatable method using readily available night vision and thermal technology to survey wildlife at tall structures. Using bats as the taxonomic group of interest, we (1) created a key to identify bats and their behavior, (2) compared the effectiveness of 2 different technologies, and (3) assessed optimal equipment placement to visually capture bat activity and behavior in proximity to wind turbine towers. For the latter, we tested thermal cameras at four distances from the base of the tower. The results of our study revealed that thermal cameras captured ∼34% more flying animals than night vision at a 2 m distance. However, due to the heat signature of the turbine towers themselves, it was challenging to identify behaviors and interactions that occurred in close proximity to the towers. In contrast, it was difficult to identify bats approaching the towers using night vision, yet we were able to clearly observe interactions with the towers themselves. With regards to equipment placement, we visually captured more bats with the thermal cameras placed 2 m from the tower base compared to farther distances. From our findings, we recommend that when using either thermal or night vision technology at tall structures, they be placed 2 m from the base to effectively observe interactions along the length of these structures. In addition, we further recommend that consideration be given to the use of these two technology types together to effectively conduct such surveys. If these survey techniques are incorporated into standard protocols, future surveys at a variety of tall structures are likely to become comparable and repeatable, thereby more effectively informing any mitigation strategies that may be required.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1984

Water and the photochemistry of the troposphere

A discussion is presented concerning the role of water in its liquid and gaseous states in the chemistry and photochemistry of the earth's troposphere, with attention to the formation of the hydroxyl radical, oxidation chains involving the gases methane, carbon monoxide and ammonia, the atmospheric chemistry of the sulfur, hydrogen, halogen and nitrogen species, and the function of lightning as a source of tropospheric species. The phenomena of 'rainout', 'washout', and the aqueous chemistry of cloud an rain droplets and of water-covered aerosols, are noted. A section is devoted to the past and anticipated impact of anthropogenic activities on the chemistry and composition of the earth's atmosphere.

Levine, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Our Changing Planet: The FY 1993 US Global Change Research Program. A report by the Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences, a supplement to the US President's fiscal year 1993 budget

The U.S. Global Change Reasearch Program (USGCRP) was established as a Presidential initiative in the FY-1990 Budget to help develop sound national and international policies related to global environmental issues, particularly global climate change. The USGCRP is implemented through a priority-driven scientific research agenda that is designed to be integrated, comprehensive, and multidisciplinary. It is designed explicitly to address scientific uncertainties in such areas as climate change, ozone depletion, changes in terrestrial and marine productivity, global water and energy cycles, sea level changes, the impact of global changes on human health and activities, and the impact of anthropogenic activities on the Earth system. The USGCRP addresses three parallel but interconnected streams of activity: documenting global change (observations); enhancing understanding of key processes (process research); and predicting global and regional environmental change (integrated modeling and prediction).

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1995

Compendium of NASA data base for the Global Tropospheric Experiment's Pacific Exploratory Mission West-A (PEM West-A)

This compendium describes aircraft data that are available from NASA's Pacific Exploratory Mission West-A (PEM West-A). PEM West is a component of the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry's (IGAC) East Asia/North Pacific Regional Study (APARE) project. The PEM- West program encompassed two expeditions to study contrasting meteorological regimes in the Pacific. Objectives of PEM West are to investigate the atmospheric chemistry of ozone over the northwest Pacific -- natural budgets and the impact of anthropogenic sources; and to investigate sulfur chemistry -- continental versus marine sulfur sources. PEM West-A was conducted in September 1991 during which the predominance of tropospheric air is from the mid-Pacific (marine) regions, but (at times) is modified/mixed with Asian continental outflow. PEM West-B was conducted during February 1994, a period characterized by maximum continental outflow. PEM-B data (not included) will become public domain during the Summer of 1995. PEM West-A flight experiments were based at Japan, Hong Kong, and Guam. This document provides a representation of NASA DC-8 aircraft data that are available from NASA Langley's Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC), which include numerous data such as meteorological observations, modeling products, results from surface studies, satellite observations, and sonde releases.

Gregory, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Barium Nitrate Raman Laser Development for Remote Sensing of Ozone

In order to understand the impact of anthropogenic emissions upon the earth's environment, scientists require remote sensing techniques which are capable of providing range-resolved measurements of clouds, aerosols, and the concentrations of several chemical constituents of the atmosphere. The differential absorption lidar (DIAL) technique is a very promising method to measure concentration profiles of chemical species such as ozone and water vapor as well as detect the presence of aerosols and clouds. If a suitable DIAL system could be deployed in space, it would provide a global data set of tremendous value. Such systems, however, need to be compact, reliable, and very efficient. In order to measure atmospheric gases with the DIAL technique, the laser transmitter must generate suitable on-line and off-line wavelength pulse pairs. The on-line pulse is resonant with an absorption feature of the species of interest. The off-line pulse is tuned so that it encounters significantly less absorption. The relative backscattered power for the two pulses enables the range-resolved concentration to be computed. Preliminary experiments at NASA LaRC suggested that the solid state Raman shifting material, Ba(NO3)2, could be utilized to produce these pulse pairs. A Raman oscillator pumped at 532 nm by a frequency-doubled Nd:YAG laser can create first Stokes laser output at 563 nm and second Stokes output at 599 nm. With frequency doublers, UV output at 281 nm and 299 nm can be subsequently obtained. This all-solid state system has the potential to be very efficient, compact, and reliable. Raman shifting in Ba(NO3)2, has previously been performed in both the visible and the infrared. The first Raman oscillator in the visible region was investigated in 1986 with the configurations of plane-plane and unstable telescopic resonators. However, most of the recent research has focused on the development of infrared sources for eye-safe lidar applications.

McCray, Christopher L.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Shortwave Radiative Fluxes, Solar-Beam Transmissions, and Aerosol Properties: TARFOX and ACE-2 Find More Absorption from Flux Radiometry than from Other Measurements

The Tropospheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing Observational Experiment (TARFOX) and the Second Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-2) made simultaneous measurements of shortwave radiative fluxes, solar-beam transmissions, and the aerosols affecting those fluxes and transmissions. Besides the measured fluxes and transmissions, other obtained properties include aerosol scattering and absorption measured in situ at the surface and aloft; aerosol single scattering albedo retrieved from skylight radiances; and aerosol complex refractive index derived by combining profiles of backscatter, extinction, and size distribution. These measurements of North Atlantic boundary layer aerosols impacted by anthropogenic pollution revealed the following characteristic results: (1) Better agreement among different types of remote measurements of aerosols (e.g., optical depth, extinction, and backscattering from sunphotometers, satellites, and lidars) than between remote and in situ measurements; 2) More extinction derived from transmission measurements than from in situ measurements; (3) Larger aerosol absorption inferred from flux radiometry than from other measurements. When the measured relationships between downwelling flux and optical depth (or beam transmission) are used to derive best-fit single scattering albedos for the polluted boundary layer aerosol, both TARFOX and ACE-2 yield midvisible values of 0.90 +/- 0.04. The other techniques give larger single scattering albedos (i.e. less absorption) for the polluted boundary layer, with a typical result of 0.95 +/- 0.04. Although the flux-based results have the virtue of describing the column aerosol unperturbed by sampling, they are subject to questions about representativeness and other uncertainties (e.g., unknown gas absorption). Current uncertainties in aerosol single scattering albedo are large in terms of climate effects. They also have an important influence on aerosol optical depths retrieved from satellite radiances. More tests are needed of the consistency among different methods and of the effects of changing humidity on aerosol.

Russell, Philip B.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Future Climate Impacts of Direct Radiative Forcing Anthropogenic Aerosols, Tropospheric Ozone, and Long-lived Greenhouse Gases

Long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the most important driver of climate change over the next century. Aerosols and tropospheric ozone (O3) are expected to induce significant perturbations to the GHG-forced climate. To distinguish the equilibrium climate responses to changes in direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG between present day and year 2100, four 80-year equilibrium climates are simulated using a unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 110. Concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, primary organic (POA) carbon, secondary organic (SOA) carbon, black carbon (BC) aerosols, and tropospheric ozone for present day and year 2100 are obtained a priori by coupled chemistry-aerosol GCM simulations, with emissions of aerosols, ozone, and precursors based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A2. Changing anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG from present day to year 2100 is predicted to perturb the global annual mean radiative forcing by +0.18 (considering aerosol direct effects only), +0.65, and +6.54 W m(sup -2) at the tropopause, and to induce an equilibrium global annual mean surface temperature change of +0.14, +0.32, and +5.31 K, respectively, with the largest temperature response occurring at northern high latitudes. Anthropogenic aerosols, through their direct effect, are predicted to alter the Hadley circulation owing to an increasing interhemispheric temperature gradient, leading to changes in tropical precipitation. When changes in both aerosols and tropospheric ozone are considered, the predicted patterns of change in global circulation and the hydrological cycle are similar to those induced by aerosols alone. GHG-induced climate changes, such as amplified warming over high latitudes, weakened Hadley circulation, and increasing precipitation over the Tropics and high latitudes, are consistent with predictions of a number of previous GCM studies. Finally, direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols is predicted to induce strong regional cooling over East and South Asia. Wintertime rainfall over southeastern China and the Indian subcontinent is predicted to decrease because of the increased atmospheric stability and decreased surface evaporation, while the geographic distribution of precipitation is also predicted to be altered as a result of aerosol-induced changes in wind flow.

Chen, Wei-Ting↗