Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Arctic change”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6

Impacts of the Variability of Ice Types on the Decline of the Arctic Perennial Sea Ice Cover

The observed rapid decline in the Arctic perennial ice cover is one of the most remarkable signal of change in the Arctic region. Updated data now show an even higher rate of decline of 9.8% per decade than the previous report of 8.9% per decade mainly because of abnormally low values in the last 4 years. To gain insights into this decline, the variability of the second year ice, which is the relatively thin component of the perennial ice cover, and other ice types is studied. The perennial ice cover in the 1990s was observed to be highly variable which might have led to higher production of second year ice and may in part explain the observed ice thinning during the period and triggered further decline. The passive microwave signature of second year ice is also studied and results show that while the signature is different from that of the older multiyear ice, it is surprisingly more similar to that of first year ice. This in part explains why previous estimates of the area of multiyear ice during the winter period are considerably lower than the area of the perennial ice cover during the preceding summer. Four distinct clusters representing radiometrically different types have been identified using multi-channel cluster analysis of passive microwave data. Data from two of these clusters, postulated to come from second year and older multiyear ice regions are also shown to have average thicknesses of 2.4 and 4.1 m, respectively, indicating that the passive microwave data may contain some ice thickness information that can be utilized for mass balance studies. The yearly anomaly maps indicate high gains of first year ice cover in the Arctic during the last decade which means higher production of second year ice and fraction of this type in the declining perennial ice cover. While not the only cause, the rapid decline in the perennial ice cover is in part caused by the increasing fractional component of the thinner second year ice cover that is very vulnerable to total melt due to warming in the Arctic, especially in spring.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗

Arctic Research NASA's Cryospheric Sciences Program

Much of NASA's Arctic Research is run through its Cryospheric Sciences Program. Arctic research efforts to date have focused primarily on investigations of the mass balance of the largest Arctic land-ice masses and the mechanisms that control it, interactions among sea ice, polar oceans, and the polar atmosphere, atmospheric processes in the polar regions, energy exchanges in the Arctic. All of these efforts have been focused on characterizing, understanding, and predicting, changes in the Arctic. NASA's unique vantage from space provides an important perspective for the study of these large scale processes, while detailed process information is obtained through targeted in situ field and airborne campaigns and models. An overview of NASA investigations in the Arctic will be presented demonstrating how the synthesis of space-based technology, and these complementary components have advanced our understanding of physical processes in the Arctic.

Waleed, Abdalati↗

Arctic Amplification: Process Drivers and Sources of Uncertainty

Arctic amplification (AA) is a coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean process. This understanding has evolved from the early concept of AA, as a consequence of snow ice line progressions, through more than a century of research that has clarified the relevant processes and driving mechanisms of AA. The predictions made by early modeling studies, namely the fall/winter maximum, bottom-heavy structure, the prominence of surface albedo feedback, and the importance of stable stratification have withstood the scrutiny of multi-decadal observations and more complex models. Yet, the uncertainty in Arctic climate projections is larger than in any other region of the planet, making the assessment of high-impact, near-term regional changes difficult or impossible. Reducing this large spread in Arctic climate projections requires a quantitative process understanding. This presentation synthesizes current knowledge of AA and describes a set of recommendations to guide future research. It briefly reviews the history of AA science, summarizes observed Arctic changes, discusses modeling approaches and feedback diagnostics, and assesses the current understanding of the most relevant feedbacks to AA. These sections culminate in a conceptual model of the fundamental physical mechanisms causing AA and a collection of recommendations to accelerate progress towards reduced uncertainty in Arctic climate projections. Our conceptual model highlights the need to account for local feedback and remote process interactions within the context of the annual cycle to constrain projected AA.

Patrick C Taylor↗

Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Energy Budget of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

The annual energy budget of the Arctic Ocean is characterized by a net heat loss at the air-sea interface that is balanced by oceanic heat transport into the Arctic. The energy loss at the air-sea interface is due to the combined effects of radiative, sensible, and latent heat fluxes. The inflow of heat by the ocean can be divided into two components: the transport of water masses of different temperatures between the Arctic and the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the export of sea ice, primarily through Fram Strait. Two 150-year simulations (1950-2099) of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. One is a control simulation for the present climate with constant 1950 atmospheric composition, and the other is a transient experiment with observed GHGs from 1950 to 1990 and 0.5% annual compounded increases of CO2 after 1990. For the present climate the model agrees well with observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere, atmospheric advective energy transport into the Arctic, and surface air temperature. It also simulates the seasonal cycle and summer increase of cloud cover and the seasonal cycle of sea-ice cover. In addition, the changes in high-latitude surface air temperature and sea-ice cover in the GHG experiment are consistent with observed changes during the last 40 and 20 years, respectively. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that even though the net annual incident solar radiation at the surface decreases by 4.6 W(per square meters) (because of greater cloud cover and increased cloud optical depth), the absorbed solar radiation increases by 2.8 W(per square meters) (because of less sea ice). Increased cloud cover and warmer air also cause increased downward thermal radiation at the surface so that the net radiation into the ocean increases by 5.0 Wm-2. The annual increase in radiation into the ocean, however, is compensated by larger increases in sensible and latent heat fluxes out of the ocean. Although the net energy loss from the ocean surface increases by 0.8 W (per square meters), this is less than the interannual variability, and the increase may not indicate a long-term trend. The seasonal cycle of heat fluxes is significantly enhanced. The downward surface heat flux increases in summer (maximum 2 of 19 W per square meters or 23% in June) while the upward heat flux increases in winter (maximum of 16 W per square meters or 28% in November). The increased downward flux in summer is due to a combination of increases in absorbed solar and thermal radiation and smaller losses of sensible and latent heat. The increased heat loss in winter is due to increased sensible and latent heat fluxes, which in turn are due to reduced sea-ice cover. On the other hand, the seasonal cycle of surface air temperature is damped, as there is a large increase in winter temperature but little change in summer.

Miller, James R.↗

On the Increasing Importance of Air-Sea Exchanges in a Thawing Arctic: A Review

Forty years ago, climate scientists predicted the Arctic to be on of Earth’s most sensitive climate regions and thus extremely vulnerable to increased CO2. The rapid and unprecedented changes observed in the Arctic confirm this prediction, which has consequences that ripple through the global climate system. Especially significant, sea ice loss is altering the exchange of mass, energy, and momentum between the atmosphere and Arctic Ocean. A thick, extensive, and multiyear ice cover has historically limited such exchanges, however, the summertime Arctic Ocean is expected to be nearly ice‐free within 15 years increasing the potential for air‐sea exchange. Changes in surface turbulent fluxes can alter the Arctic surface energy budget, sea ice, clouds, boundary layer temperature and humidity, and atmospheric and oceanic circulations. This paper reviews current knowledge of surface turbulent fluxes across the Arctic Ocean and the known effects on climate. We conclude that Arctic air‐sea energy exchanges are becoming an increasingly consequential factor driving Arctic climate. Arctic Ocean surface turbulent energy exchanges are not smooth and steady but rather irregular and episodic, considering this nature of air‐sea energy exchanges is essential for improving Arctic climate projections. New field data focusing on the episodic nature of air‐sea exchange will accelerate our understanding of Arctic climate change.

Taylor, Patrick C.↗

Cross-Scale and Cross-Interface Processes and Arctic Amplification

The Arctic is a dynamic region, demonstrated by its remarkable internal variability and rapid response to anthropogenic climate change over the last 40 years. Actionable predictions and projections hold significant value for managing both natural and human systems. The value of these model outputs only grows in a warmer, less icy Arctic. However, substantial gaps exist in our understanding of cross-scale and cross-interface (air-sea ice-ocean) interactions that limit our predictive capabilities. Studies dating back at least 40 years provide evidence that the evolution of the Arctic climate system is sensitive to these cross-scale and cross-interface interactions. This presentation summarizes our understanding of cross-scale and cross-interface interactions relevant to the Arctic’s response to anthropogenic climate change—Arctic Amplification. The presentation emphasizes the influence of surface-type dependent turbulent flux exchanges of heat and moisture, the rectification of episodic atmospheric heat transport events on time-averaged changes, local and remote feedback interactions, and cross-seasonal energy transfers. The presentation concludes with a summary of knowledge gaps and discusses potential pathways for accelerating our understanding of the Arctic climate system.

Patrick C. Taylor↗

The Importance of Cross-Scale and Cross-Interface Processes on Arctic Amplification

The Arctic is a dynamic region, demonstrated by its remarkable internal variability and rapid response to anthropogenic climate change over the last >40 years. Actionable predictions and projections hold significant value for managing both natural and human systems. The value of these model outputs only grows in a warmer, less icy Arctic. However, substantial gaps exist in our understanding of cross-scale and cross-interface (air-sea ice-ocean) interactions that limit our predictive capabilities. Studies dating back at least 40 years provide evidence that the evolution of the Arctic climate system is sensitive to these cross-scale and cross-interface interactions. This presentation summarizes our understanding of cross-scale and cross-interface interactions relevant to the Arctic’s response to anthropogenic climate change—Arctic Amplification. The presentation emphasizes the influence of surface-type dependent turbulent flux exchanges of heat and moisture, the rectification of episodic atmospheric heat transport events on time-averaged changes, local and remote feedback interactions, and cross-seasonal energy transfers. The presentation concludes with a summary of knowledge gaps and discusses potential pathways for accelerating our understanding of the Arctic climate system.

Patrick C Taylor↗

Cross-Scale and Cross-Interface Processes and Arctic Amplification

The Arctic is a dynamic region, demonstrated by its remarkable internal variability and rapid response to anthropogenic climate change over the last >40 years. Actionable predictions and projections hold significant value for managing both natural and human systems. The value of these model outputs only grows in a warmer, less icy Arctic. However, substantial gaps exist in our understanding of cross-scale and cross-interface (air-sea ice-ocean) interactions that limit our predictive capabilities. Studies dating back at least 40 years provide evidence that the evolution of the Arctic climate system is sensitive to these cross-scale and cross-interface interactions. This presentation summarizes our understanding of cross-scale and cross-interface interactions relevant to the Arctic’s response to anthropogenic climate change—Arctic Amplification. The presentation emphasizes the influence of surface-type dependent turbulent flux exchanges of heat and moisture, the rectification of episodic atmospheric heat transport events on time-averaged changes, local and remote feedback interactions, and cross-seasonal energy transfers. The presentation concludes with a summary of knowledge gaps and discusses potential pathways for accelerating our understanding of the Arctic climate system.

Patrick C. Taylor↗

(abstract) Examining Sea Ice SAR Signatures in the Arctic

This research examines the seasonal changes of the sea ice cover in the Arctic Basin as it responds to atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Monitoring this process provides a means of determining the onset and extent of the annual seasonal stages, which is thought to be an indicator for detecting climate change in the polar regions. Much of the response of sea ice to seasonal conditions results in changes in the phase of water (both in the ice and snow cover), surface roughness, and internal properties such as air bubbles. Imagery from SAR has proven to be an important tool for revealing these changes since radar backscatter is affected by both surface roughness and dielectric properties of water and salt. The major ice types and ice features may have unique SAR backscatter signatures because of the inherent variations in surface roughness, salinity, and internal properties in each category.

change surface roughness dielectric properties↗

Implications of Arctic Sea Ice Decline for the Earth System

Arctic sea ice decline has led to an amplification of surface warming and is projected to continue to decline from anthropogenic forcing, although the exact timing of ice-free summers is uncertain owing to large natural variability. Sea ice reductions affect surface heating patterns and the atmospheric pressure distribution, which may alter midlatitude extreme weather patterns. Increased light penetration and nutrient availability during spring from earlier ice breakup enhances primary production in the Arctic Ocean and its adjacent shelf seas. Ice-obligate marine mammals may be losers, whereas seasonally migrant species may be winners from rapid sea ice decline. Tundra greening is occurring across most of the Arctic, driven primarily by warming temperatures, and is displaying complex spatial patterns that are likely tied to other factors. Sea ice changes are affecting greenhouse gas exchanges as well as halogen chemistry in the Arctic. This review highlights the heterogeneous nature of Arctic change, which is vital for researchers to better understand.

Decline↗

Intercomparison of Snow Depth Retrievals over Arctic Sea Ice from Radar Data Acquired by Operation IceBridge

Since 2009, the ultra-wideband snow radar on Operation IceBridge (OIB; a NASA airborne mission to survey the polar ice covers) has acquired data in annual campaigns conducted during the Arctic and Antarctic springs. Progressive improvements in radar hardware and data processing methodologies have led to improved data quality for subsequent retrieval of snow depth. Existing retrieval algorithms differ in the way the air-snow (a-s) and snow-ice (s-i) interfaces are detected and localized in the radar returns and in how the system limitations are addressed (e.g., noise, resolution). In 2014, the Snow Thickness On Sea Ice Working Group (STOSIWG) was formed and tasked with investigating how radar data quality affects snow depth retrievals and how retrievals from the various algorithms differ. The goal is to understand the limitations of the estimates and to produce a well-documented, long-term record that can be used for understanding broader changes in the Arctic climate system. Here, we assess five retrieval algorithms by comparisons with field measurements from two groundbased campaigns, including the BRomine, Ozone, and Mercury EXperiment (BROMEX) at Barrow, Alaska; a field program by Environment and Climate Change Canada at Eureka, Nunavut; and available climatology and snowfall from ERA-Interim (ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Re-Analysis) reanalysis. The aim is to examine available algorithms and to use the assessment results to inform the development of future approaches. We present results from these assessments and highlight key considerations for the production of a long-term, calibrated geophysical record of springtime snow thickness over Arctic sea ice.

Operation IceBridge↗

Exploring the Arctic Ocean With Sailing Robots

The Arctic Ocean is changing rapidly as the planet warms, but studying it presents challenges: it’s a remote area that is often covered by sea ice. As CHELLE GENTEMANN, MARISOL GARCÍA-REYES and JORGE VAZQUEZ-CUERVO explain, using autonomous solar-powered sailing robots is a safe, reliable and climate-friendly way to collect the data we need.

Arctic↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-23246-DND

The Arctic Radiation-IceBridge Sea and Ice Experiment (ARISE) was conducted from Fairbanks, Alaska during the September transition in the Beaufort-Chukchi Seas. Fifteen missions were flown with a NASA C-130 to characterize clouds, sea-ice, and associated radiative properties over a wide range of conditions. The advanced instrumentation payload included broadband and spectral radiometers, in-situ cloud probes, a laser altimeter and digital camera system. The flight profiles were tightly coordinated with multiple intersecting satellite overpasses allowing for a thorough evaluation of the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) satellite climate data products. Thus, a rich dataset was acquired to help better understand cloud radiative effects as sea-ice conditions are changing due to arctic warming. The mission also acquired measurements to supplement the ongoing Operation Icebridge campaign. An overview of the mission operations, preliminary results, and a description of the datasets now available to the scientific community, will be presented.

William L Smith, Jr↗

The Open-Ocean Sensible Heat Flux and Its Significance for Arctic Boundary Layer Mixing During Early Fall

The increasing ice-free area during late summer has transformed the Arctic to a climate system with more dynamic boundary layer (BL) clouds and seasonal sea ice growth. The open-ocean sensible heat flux, a crucial mechanism of excessive ocean heat loss to the atmosphere during the fall freeze season, is speculated to play an important role in the recently observed cloud cover increase and BL instability. However, lack of observations and understanding of the resilience of the proposed mechanisms, especially in relation to meteorological and interannual variability, has left a poorly constrained BL parameterization scheme in Arctic climate models. In this study, we use multiyear Japanese cruise-ship observations from RV Mirai over the open Arctic Ocean to characterize the surface sensible heat flux (SSHF) during early fall and investigate its contribution to BL turbulence. It is found that mixing by SSHF is favored during episodes of high surface wind speed and is also influenced by the prevailing cloud regime. The deepest BLs and maximum ocean-atmosphere temperature difference are observed during cold air advection (associated with the stratocumulus regime), yet, contrary to previous speculation, the efficiency of sensible heat exchange is low. On the other hand, the SSHF contributes significantly to BL mixing during the uplift (low pressure) followed by the highly stable (stratus) regime. Overall, it can explain 10 of the open ocean BL height variability, whereas cloud-driven (moisture and radiative) mechanisms appear to be the other dominant source of convective turbulence. Nevertheless, there is strong interannual variability in the relationship between the SSHF and the BL height which can be intensified by the changing occurrence of Arctic climate patterns, such as positive surface wind speed anomalies and more frequent conditions of uplift. This study highlights the need for comprehensive BL observations like the RV Mirai for better understanding and predicting the dynamic nature of the Arctic climate.

boundary layer↗

Landsat Derived Bathymetry of Lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plan of Northern Alaska

The Pleistocene sand sea on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of northern Alaska is underlain by anancient sand dune field, a geological feature that affects regional lake characteristics. Many of these lakes, whichcover approximately 20 % of the Pleistocene sand sea, are relatively deep (up to 25 m). In addition to the nat-ural importance of ACP sand sea lakes for water storage, energy balance, and ecological habitat, the need forwinter water for industrial development and exploration activities makes lakes in this region a valuable resource.However, ACP sand sea lakes have received little prior study. Here, we collect in situ bathymetric data to test12 model variants for predicting sand sea lake depth based on analysis of Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager(OLI) images. Lake depth gradients were measured at 17 lakes in midsummer 2017 using a Humminbird 798ciHD SI Combo automatic sonar system. The field-measured data points were compared to red–green–blue (RGB)bands of a Landsat-8 OLI image acquired on 8 August 2016 to select and calibrate the most accurate spectral-depth model for each study lake and map bathymetry. Exponential functions using a simple band ratio (withbands selected based on lake turbidity and bed substrate) yielded the most successful model variants. For eachlake, the most accurate model explained 81.8 % of the variation in depth, on average. Modeled lake bathymetrieswere integrated with remotely sensed lake surface area to quantify lake water storage volumes, which rangedfrom 1.056×10−3to 57.416×10−3km3. Due to variations in depth maxima, substrate, and turbidity betweenlakes, a regional model is currently infeasible, rendering necessary the acquisition of additional in situ datawith which to develop a regional model solution. Estimating lake water volumes using remote sensing will fa-cilitate better management of expanding development activities and serve as a baseline by which to evaluatefuture responses to ongoing and rapid climate change in the Arctic. All sonar depth data and modeled lakebathymetry rasters can be freely accessed at https://doi.org/10.18739/A2SN01440 (Simpson and Arp, 2018) andhttps://doi.org/10.18739/A2HT2GC6G (Simpson, 2019), respectively.

Claire E Simpson↗

Wildfire Adaptation in the Russian Arctic: A Systematic Policy Review

A scientific consensus acknowledges that climate change has increased wildfire activity in the Russian Arctic, a trend projected to continue in response to further warming. Regional governments across Russia have started to design and develop adaptation policies and plans (i.e. outputs) to this end. Our comprehensive understanding on the state of wildfire adaptation in policy is limited. In this article we systematically review policies and plans developed to adapt to wildfires in the Russian Arctic. Using systematic approaches, we identify 12 wildfire adaptation outputs adopted between 2008 and 2020. Our findings indicate that wildfire adaptation outputs are aimed at reducing the risk of wildfires and improve wildland fire response, implemented through legislative and regulatory mechanisms, developed at the regional level, adopted in response to national mandates, and mainstreamed into existing forest management policies. Although there is evidence of wildfire adaptation planning occurring in the Russian Arctic, we find that the nature and extent of wildfire adaptation outputs are not sufficient to address the seriousness and severity of climate change, with key shortcomings found in relation to the scientific, human, and management characteristics. We argue that expanding the profile of climate change research in the Russian Arctic and improving the dialogue among researchers, local and Indigenous peoples, and decision-makers are critical for providing useful recommendations for policy makers to accelerate wildfire adaptation in the Russian Arctic.

Wildfire↗