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DOE OSTI2025

Verifying infectious disease scenario planning for geographically diverse populations

In the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, the literature saw a spike in publications for epidemic models, and a renewed interest in capturing contact networks and geographic movement of populations. There remains a general lack of consensus in the modeling community around best practices for spatiotemporal epi-modeling, specifically as it pertains to the infection rate formulation and the underlying contact or mixing model. We mathematically verify several common modeling assumptions in the literature, to prove when certain choices can provide consistent results across different geographic resolutions, population densities and patterns, and mixing assumptions. The most common infection rate formulation, a computationally low cost per capita infection rate assumption, fails the consistency tests for heterogeneous populations and gravity-weighting assumptions. Future modeling efforts in spatiotemporal disease modeling should be wary of this limitation, particularly when working with more heterogeneous or sparse populations. Our results provide guidance for testing that a model preserves desirable properties even when model inputs mask potential problems due to symmetry or homogeneity. We also provide a recipe for performing this type of verification, strengthening decision support tools.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Computational Study on the Effect of Thermal Boundary Conditions and Axial Aspect Ratio on Catalytic Oxidative Coupling of Methane

Packed-bed reactor models with a large reactor-diameter-to-particle-diameter ratio (N > 10) are commonly used in catalysis research. Their use is underpinned by strong simplifying assumptions including unidirectional plug flow, negligible radial gradients, small axial diffusion, and isothermal operation. However, the complex exothermic–endothermic nature of reactions like oxidative coupling of methane (OCM) coupled with heat transfer from the catalyst surface and convective heat losses from the reactor wall provides an interesting case study to evaluate packed-bed assumptions and understand axial and radial temperature variations that may impact conversion and selectivity. This computational study investigates the effect of thermal boundary conditions on catalyst performance in laboratory OCM reactors (N = ~13) through computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation. Further, the 1-D model typically used for modeling plug flow reactors assumes negligible radial temperature and species concentration gradients. This assumption is evaluated for OCM reactors over a range of geometric axial aspect ratios, defined as the reactor length divided by the diameter, comparing the 1-D with 3-D CFD results. 1-D model predictions of catalyst performance start to deviate from the 3-D model predictions as the axial aspect ratio decreases, specifically as diameter increases at constant length. In the work, the 1-D model assumption is only found to be valid for axial aspect ratios higher than 1.6, a result considered to be relevant for all exothermic catalytic reactors.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2019

Photochemical Aging Alters Secondary Organic Aerosol Partitioning Behavior

Organic aerosol is the largest fraction of the atmospheric non-refractory aerosol mass and has a significant impact on climate, visibility, and human health. A significant portion of organic aerosol is secondary organic aerosol (SOA), which forms when volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are oxidized and the reaction products partition to the particle phase. SOA formation and aging have been described using semi-volatile partitioning theory, and a typical assumption invoked is that gas-particle partitioning rapidly reaches equilibrium. However, several studies have called into question whether traditional equilibrium assumptions are valid, either due to particle-phase diffusion limitations, particle-phase reactions, or liquid/liquid phase separation and immiscibility of organic phases. Here, we investigate the ability of partitioning theory to describe laboratory SOA formation experiments using SOA mass and yield as the evaluation metric. We conduct two types of experiments; co-condensation experiments in which isoprene and a-pinene are simultaneously oxidized to form SOA, and sequential condensation experiments in which fresh isoprene SOA is exposed to aged, pre-existing isoprene- or a-pinene-derived SOA particles. In the co-condensation experiments, partitioning theory successfully predicted the time-dependent SOA concentrations without invoking diffusion limitations or organic phase separation. However, in the sequential condensation experiments, yield analysis showed that fresh isoprene SOA did not partition into either the aged a-pinene or aged isoprene SOA particles over the 4 hour experimental timescale, even at relative humidity as high as 85%. This study shows that common assumptions regarding SOA gas-particle partitioning are accurate for fresh SOA, but that these assumptions break down after SOA has been photochemically aged for modest amounts of time (~1 day). These results have important consequences for modeling SOA formation and may help to resolve some seemingly divergent conclusions regarding diffusion limitations that exist in the literature.

Secondary Organic Aerosol (SOA), gas/particle part↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cloud Condensation Nuclei Closure Study Using Airborne Measurements Over the Southern Great Plains

Abstract Airborne measurements of non‐refractory bulk aerosol chemical composition, aerosol size distributions, and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) were conducted onboard a research aircraft during the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols and Land Ecosystems field campaign in the spring and summer of 2016. A CCN closure study for the entire campaign period was performed where measured CCN concentrations at 0.24% and 0.46% supersaturation were compared with the predicted CCN concentrations calculated using κ ‐Köhler theory, three different assumptions of aerosol mixing state, and various assumptions about hygroscopicity, density, and the insoluble fraction of organic particles. We found that the Closure Ratio (CR), calculated as the ratio of predicted to measured CCN concentrations, was equal to one under two different aerosol mixing state assumptions: (a) all particles are composed of 100% organic particles, and (b) particles are externally mixed and composed of pure sulfates, nitrates, and organic particles assuming hygroscopicity values for organic particles ( ) between 0.04 and 0.17. The use of internal mixing state assumption often led to overprediction of CCN concentrations but the agreement within ±20% with the measured CCN concentrations was observed under certain closure permutations. A similar agreement, that is, within ±20%, was also observed using permuted parameters concerning density (1 and 1.5 g cm −3 ) and an insoluble fraction (0% and 20%) of organic particles. These findings may provide constraints on to predict CCN concentrations at a remote continental Southern Great Plains site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improved Representations of Longwave Surface Emissivity to Reduce Surface and Atmospheric Heating Biases in Earth System Models

Abstract Many Earth system models (ESMs) approximate surface emissivity as a broadband constant. This approximation reduces the computational burden, yet omits the spectral structure of emissivity and atmospheric absorption. Neglecting spectral variation in surface emission introduces biases in longwave (LW) atmospheric fluxes and heating. Biases are strongest over surfaces with strongly varying emissivity and minimal atmospheric opacity. We examine these biases over water, ice, and snow surfaces. We partition spectral emissivity into the 16 spectral bands utilized by a single‐column atmospheric radiative transfer model (RRTMG_LW) commonly used in ESMs. We quantify flux and heating biases introduced by broadband assumptions relative to the spectrally resolved case for standard atmospheric profiles over each surface type. Current assumptions tend to overestimate upwelling surface fluxes; for example, the greybody assumption overestimates flux by 1.6 W/m 2 (0.52%) at the bottom of a mid‐latitude winter atmosphere over ice, and by 2.33 (1.0%) at the top of atmosphere. The blackbody assumption tends to artificially cool Earth's surface, stabilizing the lower troposphere. Interestingly, the optimal broadband emissivity can deviate from the Planck‐weighted mean by up to 3% depending on surface type and atmospheric profile. We investigate bias sensitivity to surface temperature, cloud water path, and atmospheric water vapor. Bias is most sensitive to water vapor content, and least sensitive to cloud water path. Lastly, we show that a modified greybody method with updated broadband values can reduce total surface flux bias up to 1.69 , comparable to a five‐band approach and at a fraction of the computational cost.

Manzo, L. [Department of Earth System Science Univ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease

Probabilistic forecasts play an indispensable role in answering questions about the spread of newly emerged pathogens. However, uncertainties about the epidemiology of emerging pathogens can make it difficult to choose among alternative model structures and assumptions. To assess the potential for uncertainties about emerging pathogens to affect forecasts of their spread, we evaluated the performance 16 forecasting models in the context of the 2015-2016 Zika epidemic in Colombia. Each model featured a different combination of assumptions about human mobility, spatiotemporal variation in transmission potential, and the number of virus introductions. We found that which model assumptions had the most ensemble weight changed through time. We additionally identified a trade-off whereby some individual models outperformed ensemble models early in the epidemic, but on average the ensembles outperformed all individual models. Our results suggest that multiple models spanning uncertainty across alternative assumptions are necessary to obtain robust forecasts for emerging infectious diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reducing experimental uncertainty in the calculation of cavity swelling in a transmission electron microscope through crystallographically aided void volume tracking

Accurate measurement of cavity swelling in a transmission electron microscope is essential to define material performance under irradiation, and the conventionally applied spherical assumption for the calculation of cavity volumes in irradiated materials can result in errors ranging between a 25% underestimation and 72% overestimation of volume purely based on the assumption of shape. This assumption is undeniably expedient for calculation but does not sufficiently account for the 3D nature of polyhedral cavities and their shape projection in the transmission electron microscope, and therefore presents too large of an associated uncertainty in swelling determination for faceted cavities. This uncertainty has been defined for many common cavity shapes in FCC and BCC crystal systems, and has been tabulated across the cubic fundamental region. A revised methodology for crystallographically aided void volume tracking, or CAVV-T, is presented and demonstrated on a specimen of neutron irradiated Ni. In-depth discussion on the application of this technique is provided along with resources to allow for conversion between the spherical assumption and this revised method. This work seeks to increase experimental confidence in the characterization and quantification of critical aspects of irradiation damage in materials by applying a crystallographically-resolved approach for cavity swelling calculation.

Haag IV, James V. [Pacific Northwest National Labo↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spatial profiles of photon chemical potential in near-field thermophotovoltaic cells

Emitted photons stemming from the radiative recombination of electron–hole pairs carry chemical potential in radiative energy converters. This luminescent effect can substantially alter the local net photogeneration in near-field thermophotovoltaic cells. Several assumptions involving the luminescent effect are commonly made in modeling photovoltaic devices; in particular, the photon chemical potential is assumed to be zero or a constant prescribed by the bias voltage. The significance of photon chemical potential depends upon the emitter temperature, the semiconductor properties, and the injection level. Hence, these assumptions are questionable in near-field thermophotovoltaic devices with nanoscale separation distances between the emitter and the cell. In the present work, an iterative solver that combines fluctuational electrodynamics with the drift-diffusion model is developed to tackle the coupled photon and charge transport problem, enabling the determination of the spatial profile of photon chemical potential beyond the detailed balance approach. Here, the difference between the results obtained by allowing the photon chemical potential to vary spatially and by assuming a constant value demonstrates the limitations of the conventional approaches. This study is critically important for performance evaluation of near-field thermophotovoltaic systems with nanoscale vacuum gaps.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2021

The implications of uncertain renewable resource potentials for global wind and solar electricity projections

Studies exploring long-term energy system transitions rely on resource cost-supply curves derived from estimates of renewable energy (RE) potentials to generate wind and solar power projections. However, estimates of RE potentials are characterized by large uncertainties stemming from methodological assumptions that vary across studies, including factors such as the suitability of land and the performance and configuration of technology. Based on a synthesis of modeling approaches and parameter values used in prior studies, we explore the implications of these uncertain assumptions for onshore wind and solar photovoltaic electricity generation projections globally using the Global Change Analysis Model. We show that variability in parametric assumptions related to land use (e.g. land suitability) are responsible for the most substantial uncertainty in both wind and solar generation projections. Additionally, assumptions about the average turbine installation density and turbine technology are responsible for substantial uncertainty in wind generation projections. Under scenarios that account for climate impacts on wind and solar energy, we find that these parametric uncertainties are far more significant than those emerging from differences in climate models and scenarios in a global assessment, but uncertainty surrounding climate impacts (across models and scenarios) have significant effects regionally, especially for wind. Our analysis suggests the need for studies focusing on long-term energy system transitions to account for this uncertainty.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ansatz-Free Hamiltonian Learning with Heisenberg-Limited Scaling

Learning the unknown interactions that govern a quantum system is crucial for quantum information processing, device benchmarking, and quantum sensing. The problem, known as Hamiltonian learning, is well understood under the assumption that interactions are local, but this assumption may not hold for arbitrary Hamiltonians. Previous methods all require high-order inverse polynomial dependency with precision, unable to surpass the standard quantum limit and reach the gold-standard Heisenberg-limited scaling. Whether Heisenberg-limited Hamiltonian learning is possible without prior assumptions about the interaction structures, a challenge we term ansatz-free Hamiltonian learning , remains an open question. In this work, we present a quantum algorithm to learn arbitrary sparse Hamiltonians without any structure constraints using only black-box queries of the system’s real-time evolution and minimal digital controls to attain Heisenberg-limited scaling in estimation error. Our method is also resilient to state-preparation-and-measurement errors, enhancing its practical feasibility. We numerically demonstrate our ansatz-free protocol for learning physical Hamiltonians and validating analog quantum simulations, benchmarking our performance against the state-of-the-art Heisenberg-limited learning approach. Moreover, we establish a fundamental trade-off between total evolution time and quantum control on learning arbitrary interactions, revealing the intrinsic interplay between controllability and total evolution-time complexity for any learning algorithm. These results pave the way for further exploration into Heisenberg-limited Hamiltonian learning in complex quantum systems under minimal assumptions, potentially enabling new benchmarking and verification protocols.

machine learning↗

DOE OSTI2022

Disaster risk and artificial intelligence: A framework to characterize conceptual synergies and future opportunities

Artificial intelligence (AI) methods have revolutionized and redefined the landscape of data analysis in business, healthcare, and technology. These methods have innovated the applied mathematics, computer science, and engineering fields and are showing considerable potential for risk science, especially in the disaster risk domain. The disaster risk field has yet to define itself as a necessary application domain for AI implementation by defining how to responsibly balance AI and disaster risk. (1) How is AI being used for disaster risk applications; and how are these applications addressing the principles and assumptions of risk science, (2) What are the benefits of AI being used for risk applications; and what are the benefits of applying risk principles and assumptions for AI-based applications, (3) What are the synergies between AI and risk science applications, and (4) What are the characteristics of effective use of fundamental risk principles and assumptions for AI-based applications? This study develops and disseminates an online survey questionnaire that leverages expertise from risk and AI professionals to identify the most important characteristics related to AI and risk, then presents a framework for gauging how AI and disaster risk can be balanced. This study is the first to develop a classification system for applying risk principles for AI-based applications. This classification contributes to understanding of AI and risk by exploring how AI can be used to manage risk, how AI methods introduce new or additional risk, and whether fundamental risk principles and assumptions are sufficient for AI-based applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

CA-ResidueRetentionAssumptionsBT16-BaseCase

As part of the Billion Ton resource assessment projections created in 2016 (see https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2016/12/f34/2016_billion_ton_report_12.2.16_0.pdf, DOI: 10.2172/1435342) -henceforth "BT16", this dataset was used as an assumption to limit the availability of residues under a "base-case" scenario (BC1). Crop residues that had this assumption applied include corn stover, cereal (wheat, oats, and barley) straws, and sorghum stubble. What is the purpose of the data set? Why were the data collected? Per request for use in subsequent research, we have summarized assumptions for California only and selected years (2020, 2030, 2040) that were used in the BT16's base-case projections for agricultural residues and have provided details by tillage class that limited residue availability for harvest (dry tons of residues that must remain). Note: '10' is a high number that assures that no residue harvested could occur. Note: Tillage classification assumptions are also of importance: a low flexibility was applied, allowing a moderate deviation from a baseline situation (using historic CTIC data on tillage type used in counties for each crop). A moderate flexibility, allows farmers to put land into another tillage type (no till, conservation till, and reduced till) where a higher net present value was calculated. This dataset includes all allowable tillage types by crop, but each tillage type may not have occurred in BT16 simulations.

Davis, Maggie↗

DOE OSTI2022

Generalized Lapse Rate Formulas for Use in Entraining CAPE Calculations

Abstract Common assumptions in temperature lapse rate formulas for lifted air parcels include neglecting mixing, hydrostatic balance, the removal of all condensate once it forms (pseudoadiabatic), and/or the retention of all condensate within the parcel (adiabatic). These formulas are commonly derived from the conservation of entropy, which leads to errors when nonequilibrium mixed-phase condensate is present. To evaluate these assumptions, a new general lapse rate formula is derived from an expression for energy conservation, rather than entropy conservation. This new formula incorporates mixing of the parcel with its surroundings, relaxes the hydrostatic assumption, allows for nonequilibrium mixed-phase condensate, and can be formulated for pseudoadiabatic or adiabatic ascent. The new formula is shown to exactly conserve entropy for reversible ascent. Predictions by the new formula are compared to that of older and less general formulas. The errors in previous formulas arise from the assumption of hydrostatic balance, which results in considerable warm biases due to the neglect of the energy sink from buoyancy. Predictions of ascent with entrainment using the new formula are then compared to parcel properties along trajectories in large eddy simulations. Simulated parcel properties are better predicted by the formula using a diluted analogy to adiabatic ascent, wherein condensate is diluted at the same rate as other parcel properties, than by the diluted analogy to pseudoadiabatic ascent, wherein all condensate is removed. These results suggest that CAPE should be computed with adiabatic, rather than pseudoadiabatic, parcel ascent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Conformal geometry from entanglement

In a physical system with conformal symmetry, observables depend on cross-ratios, measures of distance invariant under global conformal transformations (conformal geometry for short). We identify a quantum information-theoretic mechanism by which the conformal geometry emerges at the gapless edge of a 2+1D quantum many-body system with a bulk energy gap. We introduce a novel pair of information-theoretic quantities (\mathfrak{c}_{\textrm{tot}}, \eta) ( 𝔠 tot , η ) that can be defined locally on the edge from the wavefunction of the many-body system, without prior knowledge of any distance measure. We posit that, for a topological groundstate, the quantity \mathfrak{c}_{\textrm{tot}} 𝔠 tot is stationary under arbitrary variations of the quantum state, and study the logical consequences. We show that stationarity, modulo an entanglement-based assumption about the bulk, implies (i) \mathfrak{c}_{\textrm{tot}} 𝔠 tot is a non-negative constant that can be interpreted as the total central charge of the edge theory. (ii) \eta η is a cross-ratio, obeying the full set of mathematical consistency rules, which further indicates the existence of a distance measure of the edge with global conformal invariance. Thus, the conformal geometry emerges from a simple assumption on groundstate entanglement. We show that stationarity of \mathfrak{c}_{\textrm{tot}} 𝔠 tot is equivalent to a vector fixed-point equation involving \eta η , making our assumption locally checkable. We also derive similar results for 1+1D systems under a suitable set of assumptions.

Kim, Isaac H.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Second Target Station High-Fidelity Target Activation Comparison

The development of the Second Target Station (STS) target system at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is well underway. The target system at STS consists of a rotating target disk that contains 21 segments of tungsten clad in tantalum clad in steel. A key aspect of the design of the target system is to account for the delayed heating and material damage caused by the delayed dose from decaying radionuclides. These radionuclides are a product of either spallation reactions or transmutation of the nuclei in the target system. These radionuclides build up in the target system components over the lifetime of the facility, and the radiation that is emitted can deposit energy in the components causing significant component heating and material damage. Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) Version 6.2 transports the various particle species and calculates the spallation products and neutron fluxes throughout the target system. These spallation products and neutron fluxes along with the material definition of each component are relayed to the CINDER2008 transmutation code to calculate the radionuclide inventories and the corresponding decay gamma emission spectra. MCNP6.2 coupled with CINDER2008 is the computational method-of-choice for the analysis discussed in the following sections of this report. The analysis focuses on validating major assumptions in calculating the radionuclide inventory in the STS target system: all of the target segments are fresh, unirradiated material when the protons are incident on the segment, the average of the 21 segments of the target is sufficient to represent a single segment, and that averaging the proton pulse structure over time does not significantly affect the radionuclide inventory. The position-averaged, high-fidelity, and single-tally computational methods are used to validate the assumptions and provide a point of comparison to evaluate how the assumptions impact the radionuclide inventories. A more detailed explanation of the three computational methods is provided in Section 2. The position-averaged and single-tally methods are less computationally expensive when compared with the high-fidelity method where 54,000 individual calculations are needed to calculate 1 hr of STS operation. Section 3 details the comparison of the three methods to show that the assumptions made in the position-averaged method do not significantly impact the radionuclide inventory after 1 hr of operation. The discussions and results in this report are for 1 hr of operation. Due to the computational cost associated with calculating the transmutation and activation using the high-fidelity method, only 1 hr of operation has been calculated. The discrepancies observed after 1 hr of operation are not extrapolated out to longer operational times, and this report does not address how the discrepancies between the computational methods may manifest for longer operational periods.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Enhanced Geothermal Shot Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Office

In 2021, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) began the Energy Earthshots initiatives to accelerate breakthroughs of reliable clean energy solutions within the next 10 years. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was asked by the DOE Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) to provide analysis for developing Energy Earthshot targets for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), human-made underground reservoirs that extract thermal energy from the earth for electricity generation and/or heating applications. The Enhanced Geothermal Shot analysis is based on the technology assumptions in the 2019 GTO report GeoVision: Harnessing the Heat Beneath Our Feet. For Earthshot, we updated some of the technology cost and performance assumptions based on recent technology advances and updated the EGS resource potential to include more detailed analysis. We used the updated EGS supply cost curves to forecast the amount of geothermal electricity generation that could be deployed in the US by 2050 using a capacity expansion model. The results were used to develop a cost target for EGS. On September 8th, 2022, the Enhanced Geothermal Shot was announced. Its target - reduce the cost of EGS by 90%, to $45 per megawatt hour by 2035. This paper summarizes the cost and resource assumptions used in the Enhanced Geothermal Shot. It describes the assumptions used in the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model to forecast geothermal deployment and discusses the results.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies: Process Modeling Design Parameters

The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) conducts systems analysis studies that require a large number of inputs, from ambient conditions to parameters for Aspen Plus ® (Aspen) process blocks. The sheer number of assumptions required makes it impractical to document all of them in each issued report. The purpose of the Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies (QGESS) is to document the assumptions most commonly used in system analysis studies and the basis for those assumptions. In order to develop the systems analysis models presented in various NETL reports, significant vendor data have been obtained, and these data enhance the model outputs. Much of the vendor data obtained are considered proprietary and not suitable for public release or attribution to a specific vendor. As such, several sub-systems common in NETL reports and their process parameter data are not reported in this document to protect proprietary vendor information. The values and ranges of values presented in this report represent assumptions that have been made in previous studies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Time Dependent Reactor and Sensor Physics on Core Power Synthesis

Online synthesis of the power distribution is critical in the operation and control of nuclear power reactors to ensure that the core is operating within safety margins, and to provide essential knowledge associated with the burnup of the fuel. In light water reactors (LWRs), power synthesis is achieved by using some a priori knowledge of the state of the reactor core and updating based on the signals coming from in-core sensors—namely, self-powered neutron detectors (SPNDs). This report aims to study the effects of fuel burnup and sensor degradation on the ability to accurately synthesize the power distribution in a LWR. Several modeling tools were used to simulate power synthesis based on the responses of SPNDs, with emitters made out of Rh or V. A representative pressurized water reactor low-enriched uranium (LEU) core was modeled using the Polaris/Purdue Advanced Reactor Core Simulator (PARCS) approach. The Monte Carlo N-Particle Transport 6 (MCNP6) code was used, as well, to calculate response functions between different segments of fuel to individual SPNDs; this is a crucial parameter for power synthesis. The Oak Ridge Isotope GENeration (ORIGEN) package in the Standardized Computer Analyses for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) code was used to model the time-dependent isotopic transmutation in the SPND emitters. All these data were fed into a custom code that enacted the point-based iterative (PBI) method to simulate power synthesis. Developmental work was also performed on high-fidelity SPND models in the GEometry ANd Tracking 4 (Geant4) code, which enables higher-accuracy modeling of the current responses from SPNDs. In this work, five sets of time-dependent power synthesis test cases were conducted. In these test cases, systematic changes in the input conditions enabled an analysis of the effect of (1) slightly inaccurate a priori power distribution assumptions with respect to fuel burnup, (2) highly inaccurate a priori assumptions with respect to fuel burnup (such that burnup is not included in the a priori assumed distribution), and (3) differences between Rh and V SPNDs in terms of downstream consequences of the transmutation in the emitters. The authors discovered that one may permissibly have slightly inaccurate a priori assumptions of the fuel burnup (such that the level of burnup may be slightly under- or over-approximated by the accumulated burnup in approximately 9.3 full power days), but to not account for burnup at all in the a priori assumption leads to severe levels of error, approaching 25% at maximum. The authors also discovered that V SPNDs are extraordinarily robust in the low-enriched uranium fuel cycle considered in this modeling work, whereas Rh SPNDs undergo significant transmutation that can result in large errors in the synthesized power distribution.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗