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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Calibration and Rapid-Adoption Forecasting Techniques

CRAFT (Calibration and Rapid-Adoption Forecasting Techniques) CRAFT is a Python-based project for processing, analyzing, and modeling atmospheric or environmental data. It uses machine learning techniques, specifically Random Forest Regression, to create emulators for various environmental variables such as gross primary production and soil water content. It then uses these emulators to robustly test the parameter space of mechanistic models to provide posterior estimations of the free parameters.

Robins, Zachary↗
DOE OSTI2024

How Could Future Climate Conditions Reshape a Devastating Lake‐Effect Snow Storm?

Abstract Lake‐effect snow (LES) storms, characterized by heavy convective precipitation downwind of large lakes, pose significant coastal hazards with severe socioeconomic consequences in vulnerable areas. In this study, we investigate how devastating LES storms could evolve in the future by employing a storyline approach, using the LES storm that occurred over Buffalo, New York, in November 2022 as an example. Using a Pseudo‐Global Warming method with a fully three‐dimensional two‐way coupled lake‐land‐atmosphere modeling system at a cloud‐resolving 4 km resolution, we show a 14% increase in storm precipitation under the end‐century warming. This increase in precipitation is accompanied by a transition in the precipitation form from predominantly snowfall to nearly equal parts snowfall and rainfall. Through additional simulations with isolated atmospheric and lake warming, we discerned that the warmer lake contributes to increased storm precipitation through enhanced evaporation while the warmer atmosphere contributes to the increase in the storm's rainfall, at the expense of snowfall. More importantly, this shift from snowfall to rainfall was found to nearly double the area experiencing another winter hazard, Rain‐on‐Snow. Our study provides a plausible future storyline for the Buffalo LES storm, focusing on understanding the intricate interplay between atmospheric and lake warming in shaping the future dynamics of LES storms. It emphasizes the importance of accurately capturing the changing lake‐atmosphere dynamics during LES storms under future warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced climate reproducibility testing with false discovery rate correction

Simulating the Earth's climate is an important and complex problem, thus climate models are similarly complex, comprised of millions of lines of code. In order to appropriately utilize the latest computational and software infrastructure advancements in Earth system models running on modern hybrid computing architectures to improve their performance, precision, accuracy, or all three; it is important to ensure that model simulations are repeatable and robust. This introduces the need for establishing statistical or non-bit-for-bit reproducibility, since bit-for-bit reproducibility may not always be achievable. Here, we propose a short-simulation ensemble-based test for an atmosphere model to evaluate the null hypothesis that modified model results are statistically equivalent to that of the original model. We implement this test in version 2 of the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The test evaluates a standard set of output variables across the two simulation ensembles and uses a false discovery rate correction to account for multiple testing. The false positive rates of the test are examined using re-sampling techniques on large simulation ensembles and are found to be lower than the currently implemented bootstrapping-based testing approach in E3SM. We also evaluate the statistical power of the test using perturbed simulation ensemble suites, each with a progressively larger magnitude of change to a tuning parameter. The new test is generally found to exhibit more statistical power than the current approach, being able to detect smaller changes in parameter values with higher confidence.

Kelleher, Michael E. [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Clouds in GFDL's AM4.0 With Different Microphysical Parameterizations Using the Satellite Simulator Package COSP

We evaluate cloud simulations using satellite simulators against multiple observational data sets. These simulators have been run within the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Atmosphere Model version 4.0 (AM4.0), as well as an alternative configuration where a fully two‐moment Morrison‐Gettelman cloud microphysical parameterization with prognostic precipitation (MG2) is applied, denoted as AM4‐MG2. The modeled cloud spatial distributions, vertical profiles, phase partitioning, cloud‐to‐precipitation transitions, and radiative effects compare reasonably well with satellite observations. Model biases include the under‐prediction of total and low‐level clouds, especially optically thin/intermediate clouds with cloud optical depth of less than 23, but the over‐prediction of thick clouds, indicating “too few, too bright” biases. These biases counteract each other, and give rise to reasonable estimates of cloud radiative effects. The underestimate of low‐level clouds is associated with too early and too frequent drizzle/precipitation formation. The precipitation bias is improved in AM4‐MG2, where the autoconversion scheme initiates the precipitation more realistically. There also exist discrepancies between models and observations for midlevel and high‐level clouds. Additional biases include the underestimate of liquid cloud fraction and the overestimate of ice cloud fraction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparing ICME simulations with scaled laboratory experiment

In stellar physics and astrophysics, numerical simulations and laboratory experiments are often compared to observational data to support their representation of the real world. However, there is also merit in comparing numerical simulations to properly scaled experiments, especially when the experiment and the simulation are both emulating the solar phenomena. Confirming the credibility of scaled experiments and their scaling with well-validated models is important to expand our knowledge of the associated physical phenomena. This is significant because experiments and simulations can be performed frequently, whereas observations may be limited by location, field of view, and missing data. In this work, we use the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model, a well-validated magnetohydrodynamic model, to simulate an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) and compare it to an experiment which provides a scaled analog to a physical ICME. The experiment was performed on the Big Red Ball facility and scaled using dimensionless parameters such as plasma β and magnetosonic Mach number to reproduce the main structure of an ICME. We compare the model-simulated temperature, density, and magnetic field to those from the experiment, as well as the scaling parameters used in the experiment, to those calculated from the simulation. This comparison is performed to further justify the scaling arguments made by the experiment. Additionally, the comparison would lead to the development of stronger scaling arguments for future experiments.

Bryant, K. [University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Lake Huron Enhances Snowfall Downwind of Lake Erie: A Modeling Study of the 2010 New Year’s Lake Effect Snowfall Event

In the Northeast and Great Lakes regions of the United States, the influence of multiple lakes on the overlying air can greatly affect lake-effect snowfall over downwind communities. To assess the impact of Lake Huron on snowfall downwind of Lake Erie, we simulated a lake-effect snow event which occurred from 1 to 6 January 2010 using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). We found that the presence of Lake Huron enhances snowfall downwind of Lake Erie by almost 20% and leads to much heavier local snowfall totals than when Lake Huron is not present. This increase in snowfall is due to a lake-to-lake (L2L) convective band, as secondary circulations associated with lake-effect convection form over Lake Huron and persist overland between the lakes before reintensifying over Lake Erie. As these secondary circulations move over Lake Erie, lifting within the upward branch of the circulations accelerates the development of convection within the L2L band. Surface fluxes and convection over Lake Huron deepen the boundary layer, promoting deeper vertical development of this L2L band over Lake Erie. However, although this boundary layer modification strengthens the L2L band, we found that it actually reduced lake-effect snowfall produced by wind-parallel bands (WPB) in other parts of the lake. This indicates that boundary layer modification from upstream lakes may impact L2L bands differently than WPB which are not connected to upstream secondary circulations.

Lake effects↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using Machine Learning to Generate a GISS ModelE Calibrated Physics Ensemble (CPE)

A neural network (NN) surrogate of the NASA GISS ModelE atmosphere (version E3) is trained on a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) spanning 45 physics parameters and 36 outputs. The NN is leveraged in a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Bayesian parameter inference framework to generate a second posterior constrained ensemble coined a “calibrated physics ensemble,” or CPE. The CPE members are characterized by diverse parameter combinations and are, by definition, close to top-of-atmosphere radiative balance, and must broadly agree with numerous hydrologic, energy cycle and radiative forcing metrics simultaneously. Global observations of numerous cloud, environment, and radiation properties (provided by global satellite products) are crucial for CPE generation. The inference framework explicitly accounts for discrepancies (or biases) in satellite products during CPE generation. We demonstrate that product discrepancies strongly impact calibration of important model parameter settings (e.g., convective plume entrainment rates; fall speed for cloud ice). Structural improvements new to E3 are retained across CPE members (e.g., stratocumulus simulation). Notably, the framework improved the simulation of shallow cumulus and Amazon rainfall while not degrading radiation fields, an upgrade that neither default parameters nor Latin Hypercube parameter searching achieved. Analyses of the initial PPE suggested several parameters were unimportant for output variation. However, many “unimportant” parameters were needed for CPE generation, a result that brings to the forefront how parameter importance should be determined in PPEs. From the CPE, two diverse 45-dimensional parameter configurations are retained to generate radiatively-balanced, auto-tuned atmospheres that were used in two E3 submissions to CMIP6.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

2025 Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Annual Report

ARM is a multi-laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science user facility and a key contributor to atmospheric research efforts. For more than 30 years, ARM has supported the DOE and Office of Science missions by providing atmospheric observations to enable scientific discovery, transform our understanding of the atmosphere, and evaluate and improve the accuracy of atmospheric models. ARM’s cutting-edge capabilities for scientists include continuously operating ground-based observatories, aerial observation platforms, and high performance computing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Environmental Conditions Affecting Global Mesoscale Convective System Occurrence

Abstract The ERA5 environments of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), tracked from satellite observations, are assessed over a 20-yr period. The use of a large set of MCS tracks allows us to robustly test the sensitivity of the results to factors such as region, latitude, and diurnal cycle. We aim to provide novel information on environments of observed MCSs for assessments of global atmospheric models and to improve their ability to simulate MCSs. Statistical analysis of all tracked MCSs is performed in two complementary ways. First, we investigate the environments when an MCS has occurred at different spatial scales before and after MCS formation. Several environmental variables are found to show marked changes before MCS initiation, particularly over land. The vertically integrated moisture flux convergence shows a robust signal across different regions and when considering MCS initiation diurnal cycle. We also found spatial scale dependence of the environments between 200 and 500 km, providing new evidence of a natural length scale for use with MCS parameterization. In the second analysis, the likelihood of MCS occurrence for given environmental conditions is evaluated, by considering all environments and determining the probability of being in an MCS core or shield region. These are compared to analogous non-MCS environments, allowing discrimination between conditions suitable for MCS and non-MCS occurrence. Three environmental variables are found to be useful predictors of MCS occurrence: total column water vapor, midlevel relative humidity, and total column moisture flux convergence. Such relations could be used as trigger conditions for the parameterization of MCSs, thereby strengthening the dependence of the MCS scheme on the environment. Significance Statement Large storm systems called mesoscale convective systems form across Earth. These are collections of thunderstorms, with associated high-level clouds that produce substantial, lighter rainfall and modulate Earth’s energy balance. They produce hazardous weather conditions, such as floods and high winds, and are responsible for a high percentage of rainfall in many regions globally. We investigate the environmental conditions under which they form, so that we can understand the spatial extent of the environment which is important for their formation, and also where and when the effects of these storms might be felt. The novel information generated here should help improve the representation of these storms in weather and climate models, improving the prediction of rainfall, thunderclouds, and high-level clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Aircraft in-situ measurements from SOCRATES constrain the anthropogenic perturbations of cloud droplet number

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) in warm clouds alter reflected shortwave radiation by influencing cloud microphysical and macrophysical properties. The variable of state controlling ACI is the cloud droplet number concentration (N d ). Here, we examine the perturbations in N d due to anthropogenic aerosols (ΔN d, PD-PI ) using a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in the sixth Community Atmosphere Model (CAM6). Surrogate models are created for the CAM6 PPE outputs and are used to generate 1 million model variants of CAM6 by sampling 45 sources of parameter uncertainty. The range of uncertain physical parameters related to ACI are constrained with observations of aerosol and cloud properties from SOCRATES. The likely range of uncertain parameters and the associated range of ΔN d, PD-PI are more strongly constrained with observations of N d relative to observations of cloud condensation nuclei. We conduct sensitivity tests of how constraints on ΔN d, PD-PI are affected by systematic uncertainties in observations and our limitations in our surrogate models created for CAM6 PPE outputs. Based on this, we provide guidance on the impact of reducing systematic uncertainty in airborne microphysical observations and in surrogate models.

Song, Ci [Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United St↗
DOE OSTI2026

Investigating the Impacts of Aqueous-Phase Processing on Organic Aerosol Chemical Climatology Using ARM and ASR Observations

This project improved understanding of how atmospheric aerosol particles form and evolve, with a focus on the role of water-driven (aqueous-phase) chemical reactions in the atmosphere. These processes occur in clouds, fog, and humid air and can significantly change the composition and properties of airborne particles, known as aerosols, which influence air quality and climate. By combining field measurements, laboratory experiments, and advanced analytical techniques, the project identified key chemical signatures that allow scientists to distinguish particles formed through aqueous processes from those formed in the gas phase. Observations from multiple environments, including wildfire smoke, urban regions, and cloud-influenced areas, show that aqueous chemistry is an important pathway for particle formation and aging. The project also developed new measurement approaches using uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) to capture how aerosol composition varies with altitude, providing critical insights into how particles interact with clouds. In addition, new data analysis frameworks were created to better interpret long-term aerosol measurements and improve characterization of particle sources and transformations. These results have been integrated into a global database of aerosol measurements and used to support atmospheric modeling efforts. Overall, the project provides important tools and knowledge to improve predictions of how aerosols affect climate and air quality, particularly through their interactions with radiation and clouds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Relative Importance of Forced and Unforced Temperature Patterns in Driving the Time Variation of Low-Cloud Feedback

Abstract Atmospheric models forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) suggest a trend toward a more-stabilizing cloud feedback in recent decades, partly due to the surface cooling trend in the eastern Pacific (EP) and the warming trend in the western Pacific (WP). Here, we show model evidence that the low-cloud feedback has contributions from both forced and unforced feedback components and that its time variation arises in large part through changes in the relative importance of the two over time, rather than through variations in forced or unforced feedbacks themselves. Initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) suggest that the SST patterns are dominated by unforced variations for 30-yr windows ending prior to the 1980s. In general, unforced SSTs are representative of an ENSO-like pattern, which corresponds to weak low-level stability in the tropics and less-stabilizing low-cloud feedback. Since the 1980s, the forced signals have become stronger, outweighing the unforced signals for the 30-yr windows ending after the 2010s. Forced SSTs are characterized by relatively uniform warming with an enhancement in the WP, corresponding to a more-stabilizing low-cloud feedback in most cases. The time-evolving SST pattern due to this increasing importance of forced signals is the dominant contributor to the recent stabilizing shift of low-cloud feedback in the LEs. Using single-forcing LEs, we further find that if only greenhouse gases evolve with time, the transition to the domination of forced signals occurs 10–20 years earlier compared to the LEs with full forcings, which can be understood through the compensating effect between aerosols and greenhouse gases.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extratropical Cloud Feedback Constrained by Cloud Sources and Sinks in Cyclones

Constraining cloud feedback in global climate models (GCMs) using observations is important for establishing accurate predictions of future climate. Uncertainty in shortwave cloud feedback (SW FB ) dominates uncertainty in total cloud feedback. Recent studies show a shift toward more positive extratropical SW FB in the latest generations of GCMs leading to the emergence of very high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this study, we use precipitation efficiency and albedo susceptibility to constrain liquid water path (LWP) response to warming and SW FB in the Southern Ocean (SO; 50°–80°S). We analyze precipitation in extratropical cyclones (ECs) to learn about extratropical condensed water sink processes, combined with observations of clouds and moisture convergence, and use the analysis to better understand and constrain SW FB . We utilize a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6), to provide a constraint on SW FB based on observations from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and Multisensor Advanced Climatology of LWP (MAC-LWP). We apply Gaussian process regression to emulate the model response to all parameters perturbed in the PPE. Confronting the emulator output with observations provides a new estimated response of Earth to global warming. Furthermore, our new estimates of SO LWP reduce the PPE range by 66%–72%, which results in a shortwave cloud radiative effect estimated range that is 27%–34% less than the PPE range. Observations suggest a more positive SO SW FB than the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), and consequently do not reject the high climate sensitivity GCMs emerging from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6).

Atmosphere↗
DOE OSTI2024

Secondary organic aerosols derived from intermediate-volatility n-alkanes adopt low-viscous phase state

Abstract. Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) derived from n-alkanes, as emitted from vehicles and volatile chemical products, is a major component of anthropogenic particulate matter, yet the chemical composition and phase state are poorly understood and thus poorly constrained in aerosol models. Here we provide a comprehensive analysis of n-alkane SOA by explicit gas-phase chemistry modeling, machine learning, and laboratory experiments to show that n-alkane SOA adopts low-viscous semi-solid or liquid states. Our study underlines the complex interplay of molecular composition and SOA viscosity: n-alkane SOA with a higher carbon number mostly consists of less functionalized first-generation products with lower viscosity, while the SOA with a lower carbon number contains more functionalized multigenerational products with higher viscosity. This study opens up a new avenue for analysis of SOA processes, and the results indicate few kinetic limitations of mass accommodation in SOA formation, supporting the application of equilibrium partitioning for simulating n-alkane SOA formation in large-scale atmospheric models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Methods to Evaluate Subcolumn Profiles Based on Two-Point Diagnostics

In atmospheric models, stochastic generation of subgrid-scale profiles or “subcolumns” has been used for a variety of purposes. Such subcolumns can be generated from subgrid probability density functions (PDFs) at different vertical levels, when such PDFs are available. To do so, the generator needs to decide how strongly points should be correlated in the vertical, that is, how much the values should be overlapped. This is sometimes called “PDF overlap.” To assess vertical correlation in a simplified, observable setting, here the vertical correlation of vertical velocity in subcloud layers is examined. Doppler lidar is used to evaluate the vertical profiles of vertical velocity produced by a large-eddy simulation (LES) model and the Subgrid Importance Latin Hypercube Sampler (SILHS) subcolumn generator. In order to diagnose unrealistic features in subcolumn profiles, various statistical diagnostics are examined here, including the bivariate PDF of vertical velocity at two separated points (i.e., altitudes), the two-point velocity correlation, the integral correlation length, the PDF of two-point velocity differences, and the skewness and kurtosis of two-point velocity differences. The profiles produced by LES match lidar well, except that they are too smooth at small scales. The profiles produced by SILHS exhibit sharp jumps from updraft to downdraft that are not observed in the lidar data. To reduce the generation of these unrealistically sharp jumps, the SILHS sampling method is revised. The diagnostics confirm that the revised sampling method reduces the overprediction of sharp jumps.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-resolution lidar observations of sedimentation-induced size sorting of droplets near a laboratory cloud top

Cloud optical properties and precipitation, which are crucial to weather and climate, are strongly influenced by cloud microphysical properties that are still poorly understood. Here, we develop a high-resolution time-correlated single-photon-counting lidar and apply it to observe cloud microphysical properties at one-centimeter range resolution in a convection chamber under well-controlled conditions. Together with concurrent in-situ measurements and theoretical analysis, our lidar observations indicate that although turbulent mixing tends to homogenize the cloud in the bulk region, entrainment and sedimentation cause inhomogeneities in droplet concentrations near the cloud top. Specifically, the topmost region is directly affected by entrainment, and lidar profiles show clear evidence of entrained air and detrained cloud filament. The transition region below exhibits vertical size sorting of cloud droplets caused by sedimentation. Our results suggest that using a single sedimentation velocity for all cloud droplets, as is done in many atmospheric models, overlooks key physics relevant to the microphysical structure near the cloud top. In conclusion, our conceptual model used to describe these measurements can serve as a step toward improving the current modeling of processes in the cloud top region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying Moisture Sources of Arctic Atmospheric Rivers During the Recent Historical Period

Atmospheric rivers (ARs), filaments of intense atmospheric moisture transport, play a significant role in delivering moisture poleward into the Arctic and triggering weather extremes. Although previous studies have focused on large‐scale circulations driving these events, this study investigates ARs through attributing their moisture sources using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) with moisture‐tagging capability. Examining ARs in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic separately revealed distinct contributions from remote versus local, and ocean versus land, moisture sources. Unlike non‐AR events, Arctic ARs primarily draw moisture from their respective ocean basins in lower‐latitude regions during the cold season, and shift to land sources in the warm season. Cold‐season ARs in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors source 73.2% and 85.3% of their moisture from their respective ocean basins at lower latitudes, however warm‐season contributions decrease to 41.3% and 29.4%. In contrast, mid‐ and high‐latitude continents combined contribute 40.1% and 51.3% in the warm season. Trajectory clustering analysis shows that AR moisture sources depend on both their genesis regions and transport pathways. In recent decades, the Arctic has experienced a moistening trend in both the cold and warm seasons. Our results suggest that local and remote sources equally drive the observed cold‐season moistening, whereas remote sources predominantly drive the warm‐season moistening. A better understanding of Arctic AR moisture sources under current climate conditions provides valuable insights into their potential future changes amid the projected heterogeneous northern hemispheric warming.

Arctic↗
DOE OSTI2026

A low-latitude, high-elevation 10Be production-rate calibration from the Rwenzori Mountains, Uganda

Cosmogenic nuclide surface-exposure dating has become a key tool in geomorphology. Robust application of the technique relies on determination of local nuclide production rates using independently dated calibration sites. However, there are few existing calibration sites in certain regions, particularly in low-latitude, high-elevation regions where cosmogenic nuclide production is theoretically more sensitive to changes in Earth's magnetic field and atmospheric conditions. We present a new cosmogenic beryllium-10 (10Be) production-rate calibration from the equatorial Rwenzori Mountains in Uganda. The calibration is based on radiocarbon dating of basal lake sediments (∼21.3 kyr BP) from Lake Mahoma (2900 m asl) and measured 10Be concentrations from boulders on the crest of a moraine which dams the lake. Our results indicate a time-integrated 10Be production rate of 15.83 ± 0.81 at/g/yr at Lake Mahoma. We then use these calibration data and two public online calculators to calculate ages for moraines in a separate Rwenzori valley for which there exists a minimum-limiting radiocarbon age constraint (∼12 kyr BP) on surficial glacial sediments. This enables us to assess the performance of different parameters used to scale production rates spatially and temporally (e.g., scaling frameworks, geomagnetic field reconstructions, atmospheric models) for surface-exposure age calculation in the region. Our results highlight the sensitivity of low-latitude cosmogenic nuclide surface-exposure ages to discrete calculation parameters, such as scaling framework or reconstructions of Earth's magnetic field, and the utility of determining production rates at sites where limiting age data exists for other nearby landforms.

Anderson, N [Dartmouth College]↗