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BERT-based Topic Modeling and Information Retrieval to Support Fishbone Diagramming for Safe Integration of Unmanned Aircraft Systems in Wildfire Response

Recent concepts for emerging wildfire response operations have included unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) due to their increasing accessibility and capabilities. To integrate UAS into wildfire response safely, researchers have studied the use of large repositories of historic incident reports to improve the scope of root cause analysis. Recent work has emphasized applying state-of-the-art natural language processing techniques to extract useful information from these repositories. However, it has not yet been studied how these results can be interpreted and integrated into the systems engineering process. In this work, we propose a process in which Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT)-based topic modeling and information retrieval are applied to a relevant set of documents in order to support the development of a fishbone diagram in a semiautomated process. High-level themes in the document set are identified using topic modeling, which are then refined and interpreted by a human analyst. Then, the themes are used to guide a finer search using information retrieval, which returns specific incident reports of relevance. This provides traceability to specific incidents as well as broader categorizations that comprise the fishbone branches. We apply the proposed process to relevant documents from NASA’s Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS). The proposed process is widely applicable when relevant documents are available, and the results from this study will be useful to identifying potential causes of wildfire response UAS incidents.

hazard analysis↗

NASA's aviation safety research and technology program

Aviation safety is challenged by the practical necessity of compromising inherent factors of design, environment, and operation. If accidents are to be avoided these factors must be controlled to a degree not often required by other transport modes. The operational problems which challenge safety seem to occur most often in the interfaces within and between the design, the environment, and operations where mismatches occur due to ignorance or lack of sufficient understanding of these interactions. Under this report the following topics are summarized: (1) The nature of operating problems, (2) NASA aviation safety research, (3) clear air turbulence characterization and prediction, (4) CAT detection, (5) Measurement of Atmospheric Turbulence (MAT) Program, (6) Lightning, (7) Thunderstorm gust fronts, (8) Aircraft ground operating problems, (9) Aircraft fire technology, (10) Crashworthiness research, (11) Aircraft wake vortex hazard research, and (12) Aviation safety reporting system.

Fichtl, G. H.↗

Analysis of eighty-four commercial aviation incidents - Implications for a resource management approach to crew training

A resource management approach to aircrew performance is defined and utilized in structuring an analysis of 84 exemplary incidents from the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System. The distribution of enabling and associated (evolutionary) and recovery factors between and within five analytic categories suggests that resource management training be concentrated on: (1) interpersonal communications, with air traffic control information of major concern; (2) task management, mainly setting priorities and appropriately allocating tasks under varying workload levels; and (3) planning, coordination, and decisionmaking concerned with preventing and recovering from potentially unsafe situations in certain aircraft maneuvers.

Murphy, M. R.↗

A review of in-flight emergencies in the ASRS data base

A series of 154 in-flight emergencies as reported to the Aviation Safety Reporting System are described. The various types of emergencies are examined and an attempt is made to determine the human errors and other factors associated with each incident, as well as the measures taken to resolve the emergency. It is concluded that nearly one half of those emergencies reported were related to failure or malfunction of aircraft subsystems. Of all the emergencies, nearly one quarter were associated with power plant failure. Other frequently encountered emergency types are associated with operation in instrument meteorological conditions without appropriate clearance or qualification, and with low fuel state situations. Human error is prominently featured in many of the incidents, appearing in the actions of pilots and air traffic controllers.

Porter, R. F.↗

An investigation of reports of Controlled Flight Toward Terrain (CFTT)

Some 258 reports from more than 23,000 documents in the files of the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) were found to be to the hazard of flight into terrain with no prior awareness by the crew of impending disaster. Examination of the reports indicate that human error was a casual factor in 64% of the incidents in which some threat of terrain conflict was experienced. Approximately two-thirds of the human errors were attributed to controllers, the most common discrepancy being a radar vector below the Minimum Vector Altitude (MVA). Errors by pilots were of a much diverse nature and include a few instances of gross deviations from their assigned altitudes. The ground proximity warning system and the minimum safe altitude warning equipment were the initial recovery factor in some 18 serious incidents and were apparently the sole warning in six reported instances which otherwise would most probably have ended in disaster.

Porter, R. F.↗

Operational problems experienced by single pilots in instrument meteorological conditions

The development and implementation of a search strategy to extract pertinent reports from the Aviation Safety Reporting System-2 (ASRS-2) database are described. For any particular occurence to be pertinent to the study, it must have satisfied the following conditions: the aircraft must be of the type usually flown by a single pilot; operation on an IFR flight plan in instrument meteorological conditions; pilot experienced an operational problem. The occurances consist of reports by the pilot about his own performance, by the pilot about the system performance, or by an air traffic controller about a pilot's performance.

Weislogel, S.↗

A summary and integration of research concerning single pilot IFR operational problems

A review of seven research studies pertaining to Single Pilot IFR (SPIFR) operations was performed. Two studies were based on questionnaire surveys; two based on National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) reports; two were based on Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) incident reports, and one report used event analysis and statistics to forecast problems. The results obtained in each study were extracted and integrated. Results were synthesized and key issues pertaining to SPIFR operations problems were identified. The research that was recommended by the studies and that addressed the key issues is catalogued for each key issue.

Chapman, G. C.↗

A summary and integration of research concerning single pilot IFR operational problems

A review of seven research studies pertaining to Single Pilot IFR (SPIFR) operations was performed. Two studies were based on questionnaire surveys, two were based on National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) reports, two were based on Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) incident reports, and one report used event analysis and statistics to forecast problems. The results obtained in each study were extracted and integrated. Results were synthesized and key issues pertaining to SPIFR operations problems were identified. The research that was recommended by the studies and that addressed the key issues is cataloged for each key issue.

Chapman, G. C.↗

Fatigue, pilot deviations and time of day

The relationships between pilot fatigue, pilot deviations, reported incidents, and time of day are examined. A sample of 200 Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) reports were analyzed from 1985 and 200 reports from 1987, plus 100 reports from late 1987 and early 1988 that were selected because of possible association with fatigue. The FAA pilot deviation data and incident data were analyzed in relation to denominator data that summarized the hourly operations (landings and takeoffs of scheduled flights) at major U.S. airports. Using as numerators FAA data on pilot deviations and incidents reported to the FAA, the rates by time of day were calculated. Pilot age was also analyzed in relation to the time of day, phase of flight, and type of incident.

Baker, Susan P.↗

Multi-media authoring - Instruction and training of air traffic controllers based on ASRS incident reports

This paper discusses the use of computer-assisted instructions and flight simulations to enhance procedural and perceptual motor task training. Attention is called to the fact that incorporating the accident and incident data contained in reports filed with the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) would be a valuable training tool which the learner could apply for other situations. The need to segment the events is emphasized; this would make it possible to modify events in order to suit the needs of the training environment. Methods were developed for designing meaningful scenario development on runway incursions on the basis of analysis of ASRS reports. It is noted that, while the development of interactive training tools using the ASRS and other data bases holds much promise, the design and production of interactive video programs and laser disks are very expensive. It is suggested that this problem may be overcome by sharing the costs of production to develop a library of materials available to a broad range of users.

Armstrong, Herbert B.↗

The automatic human

An overview is presented of the growth and role of automation in civil aircraft operations for both cockpit management and ground control. NASA has initiated a research program centered on furthering automation and developing a consistent and rational philosophy of human centered aircraft and air traffic control automation. Introduction of the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) has proved successful in bringing together pilots and ground controllers to report incidents of operational anomalies that can then be analyzed, leading to corrective action to prevent similar reoccurrences. Attention is given to the growing trend of extensive automation in the cockpit that appears to be leading to a diminution of management control of the aircraft by the decreasing number of flight crew members. A majority of reports indicate that there is a serious mismatch between new aircraft capabilities and ATC procedures, which were designed for older aircraft. ASRS has also kept research oriented toward real problems and community needs.

Billings, Charles↗

Who or what saved the day? A comparison of traditional and glass cockpits

This study examined incidents reported to NASAs Aviation Safety Reporting System from a different perspective: rather than focusing on the factors contributing to or causing incidents, this study concentrated on who and what (subsystems and information) enabled the recovery from an anomaly. Incident reports describing altitude deviations were classified as to cockpit type (glass or traditional), flight phase, agent restoring safety, and cockpit subsystems providing specific information that helped restore safety. The data revealed and quantified the agents, information, and factors that 'saved the day'. The flight crews used many sources of information to detect the altitude deviations: altimeter, outside scene, altitude alert, kinesthesia, attitude and communications monitoring. In the glass cockpits the crews also used the map display and autothrottles to detect deviations from assigned altitudes. There was an interaction between the person detecting the anomaly (controller/flight crew) and the type of cockpit. Glass cockpit flight crews detect proportionally more deviations than their counterparts in traditional cockpits, while controllers tend to detect more deviations involving traditional cockpits. There was no effect of cockpit position (captain/first officer). A model that details the flow of altitude information between air traffic control, flight crews, and cockpit subsystems, was developed and validated. This model identifies strengths and weaknesses in the flow of altitude information within the current ground/air system.

Degani, Asaf↗

A taxonomy of decision problems on the flight deck

Examining cases of real crews making decisions in full-mission simulators or through Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) reports shows that there are many different types of decisions that crews must make. Features of the situation determine the type of decision that must be made. The paper identifies six types of decisions that require different types of cognitive work and are also subject to different types of error or failure. These different requirements, along with descriptions of effective crew strategies, can serve as a basis for developing training practices and for evaluating crews.

Orasanu, Judith M.↗

Initial exploration of the ASRS database

We applied a standard classification algorithm to a subset of NASA/FAA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) database. The subset concerned incidents of aircraft altitude deviations. We are exploring the database to address questions such as: Are there 'natural' classes into which the data will fall? How would these classes correspond to recognizable events or situations? Beyond addressing these we want the data to determine directions for further study. We conducted experiments on different data subsections and analyzed diagnostics such as 'message length reduction'; these characterize the classification in terms of its significance and information content. The classification effort was successful in revealing relationships in the data that were in consonance with other studies of the data and expert opinion.

Kraft, Richard↗

Airport ramp safety and crew performance issues

This study examined 182 ramp operations incident reports from the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) database, to determine which factors influence ramp operation incidents. It was found that incidents occurred more often during aircraft arrival operations than during departure operations; incidents occurred most often at the gate stop area, less so at the gate entry/exit areas, and least on the ramp fringe areas; and reporters cited fewer incidents when more ground crew were present. The authors offer suggestions for both airline management and flight crews to reduce the rate of ramp incidents.

Chamberlin, Roy↗

What ASRS incident data tell about flight crew performance during aircraft malfunctions

This research examined 230 reports in NASA's Aviation Safety Reporting System's (ASRS) database to develop a better understanding of factors that can affect flight crew performance when crew are faced with inflight aircraft malfunctions. Each report was placed into one of two categories, based on severity of the malfunction. Report analysis was then conducted to extract information regarding crew procedural issues, crew communications and situational awareness. A comparison of these crew factors across malfunction type was then performed. This comparison revealed a significant difference in ways that crews dealt with serious malfunctions compared to less serious malfunctions. The authors offer recommendations toward improving crew performance when faced with inflight aircraft malfunctions.

Sumwalt, Robert L.↗

A Practical Guide to Interpretation of Large Collections of Incident Narratives Using the QUORUM Method

Analysis of incident reports plays an important role in aviation safety. Typically, a narrative description, written by a participant, is a central part of an incident report. Because there are so many reports, and the narratives contain so much detail, it can be difficult to efficiently and effectively recognize patterns among them. Recognizing and addressing recurring problems, however, is vital to continuing safety in commercial aviation operations. A practical way to interpret large collections of incident narratives is to apply the QUORUM method of text analysis, modeling, and relevance ranking. In this paper, QUORUM text analysis and modeling are surveyed, and QUORUM relevance ranking is described in detail with many examples. The examples are based on several large collections of reports from the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) database, and a collection of news stories describing the disaster of TWA Flight 800, the Boeing 747 which exploded in mid- air and crashed near Long Island, New York, on July 17, 1996. Reader familiarity with this disaster should make the relevance-ranking examples more understandable. The ASRS examples illustrate the practical application of QUORUM relevance ranking.

McGreevy, Michael W.↗

Rating the Relevance of QUORUM-Selected ASRS Incident Narratives to a "Controlled Flight into Terrain" Accident

An exploratory study was conducted to identify commercial aviation incidents that are relevant to a "controlled flight into terrain" (CFIT) accident using a NASA-developed text processing method. The QUORUM method was used to rate 67820 incident narratives, virtually all of the narratives in the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) database, according to their relevance to two official reports on the crash of American Airlines Flight 965 near Cali, Colombia in December 1995. For comparison with QUORUM's ratings, three experienced ASRS analysts read the reports of the crash and independently rated the relevance of the 100 narratives that were most highly rated by QUORUM, as well as 100 narratives randomly selected from the database. Eighty-four of 100 QUORUM-selected narratives were rated as relevant to the Cali accident by one or more of the analysts. The relevant incidents involved a variety of factors, including, over-reliance on automation, confusion and changes during descent/approach, terrain avoidance, and operations in foreign airspace. In addition, the QUORUM collection of incidents was found to be significantly more relevant than the random collection.

McGreevy, Michael W.↗