Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Battery life prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6

Battery calendar aging and machine learning

Batteries continue to attract immense attention due to the critical need for new energy technologies that can help humankind transition to a net-zero future. To meet global goals for implementation of new batteries, the research community needs to more coherently consider how to go about the process of innovation, development, and validation of new technologies. Current practices for bringing a new battery technology from the benchtop to deployment can be very time consuming and complex, given that batteries can have distinct aging pathways based on both how they are cycled and their storage conditions. In nearly all use cases, batteries experience periods of active cycling and also extended periods of rest. Thus, calendar time often occurs when a battery is close to fully charged. Currently, the combined cycle and calendar life aspects receive inconsistent attention during most stages of research and development. For batteries to fulfill the critical role envisioned to meet global energy demands, greater uniformity in practice is needed to alleviate potential delays caused by the inconsistent acquisition of aging data. In this study, we present our thoughts and recommendations on the need to further advance commonality and availability of calendar aging data for emerging high-energy and long-duration batteries. While there is a broad need to adopt best practices for both calendar and cycle life assessment, a push to greater uniformity in approach and reporting is sorely needed to allow calendar life predictions to harness many of the advances that have recently been seen for cycle life prediction using machine learning (ML) and other techniques.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Adaptive Algebraic Derivative Estimation for Battery Electric Buses Energy Consumption Forecasting

The limited service life of onboard batteries for EVs is a challenge, underscoring the need for real-time battery usage prediction. This paper proposes an adaptive Algebraic Derivative Estimation (ADE) approach for forecasting the energy consumption of battery electric buses. By dynamically adjusting the sliding window length, the adaptive ADE retains the fixed-length ADE’s key advantage—namely, operating online without reliance on extensive historical datasets—while substantially bolstering forecast accuracy by actively trading estimation bias off estimation variance. Comparative experiments against both the conventional ADE with a fixed length and a representative machine learning algorithm, XGBoost, were conducted, with performance evaluated via root mean square error, mean absolute error, and the coefficient of determination. The results demonstrate that the proposed approach significantly outperforms baseline methods.

Cui, Tianyang [The University of Texas at Dallas]↗

Closed-loop optimization of fast-charging protocols for batteries with machine learning

Simultaneously optimizing many design parameters in time-consuming experiments causes bottlenecks in a broad range of scientific and engineering disciplines. One such example is process and control optimization for lithium-ion batteries during materials selection, cell manufacturing and operation. A typical objective is to maximize battery lifetime; however, conducting even a single experiment to evaluate lifetime can take months to years. Furthermore, both large parameter spaces and high sampling variability necessitate a large number of experiments. As such, the key challenge is to reduce both the number and the duration of the experiments required. Here we develop and demonstrate a machine learning methodology to efficiently optimize a parameter space specifying the current and voltage profiles of six-step, ten-minute fast-charging protocols for maximizing battery cycle life, which can alleviate range anxiety for electric-vehicle users. We combine two key elements to reduce the optimization cost: an early-prediction model, which reduces the time per experiment by predicting the final cycle life using data from the first few cycles, and a Bayesian optimization algorithm, which reduces the number of experiments by balancing exploration and exploitation to efficiently probe the parameter space of charging protocols. Using this methodology, we rapidly identify high-cycle-life charging protocols among 224 candidates in 16 days (compared with over 500 days using exhaustive search without early prediction), and subsequently validate the accuracy and efficiency of our optimization approach. Our closed-loop methodology automatically incorporates feedback from past experiments to inform future decisions and can be generalized to other applications in battery design and, more broadly, other scientific domains that involve time-intensive experiments and multi-dimensional design spaces.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Lithium-Ion Batteries for Aerospace Applications

This presentation reviews: (1) the goals and objectives, (2) the NASA and Airforce requirements, (3) the potential near term missions, (4) management approach, (5) the technical approach and (6) the program road map. The objectives of the program include: (1) develop high specific energy and long life lithium ion cells and smart batteries for aerospace and defense applications, (2) establish domestic production sources, and to demonstrate technological readiness for various missions. The management approach is to encourage the teaming of universities, R&D organizations, and battery manufacturing companies, to build on existing commercial and government technology, and to develop two sources for manufacturing cells and batteries. The technological approach includes: (1) develop advanced electrode materials and electrolytes to achieve improved low temperature performance and long cycle life, (2) optimize cell design to improve specific energy, cycle life and safety, (3) establish manufacturing processes to ensure predictable performance, (4) establish manufacturing processes to ensure predictable performance, (5) develop aerospace lithium ion cells in various AH sizes and voltages, (6) develop electronics for smart battery management, (7) develop a performance database required for various applications, and (8) demonstrate technology readiness for the various missions. Charts which review the requirements for the Li-ion battery development program are presented.

Surampudi, S.↗

Gas-Phase Composition as a Predictive Metric for Calendar Life Behavior of Next-Generation Silicon Anodes

The expansion of renewable technologies and electrification of the transportation sector is driving increased demand for next-generation battery materials that provide higher power and energy density with superior cycling and calendar life stability. Silicon (Si) has a theoretical capacity nearly 10x that of graphite, and is therefore a promising anode material candidate to meet these rigorous performance demands. While leading Si anode battery demonstrations are approaching target metrics for cycle life, a series of complex and interrelated modes of reactivity lead to reduced calendar life and therefore challenge practical adoption of these materials. Deconvoluting the degradation processes that impact Si calendar life is critical to informing the rational and accelerated design of improved Si materials. In the present work, we employ novel sampling techniques and GC-MS-FID characterization to measure gas-phase composition during initial Si cycling, which we tie to selective mechanisms of Si passivation. We utilize a tiered analysis approach to identify and quantify the gas-phase reaction products associated with three advanced Si material candidates under practical operating conditions. Ex situ analysis of Si powders (pure chemical reactivity) is coupled with nondestructive in situ sampling of Si electrodes in a practical pouch-cell format (coupled chemical and electrochemical reactivity). We link the observed gas-phase species evolution to electrochemical behavior and measured calendar life of the three Si materials. Further, we evaluate the voltage-resolved evolution of gas-phase species for one such Si nanomaterial, where nonmonotonic gas generation implies competition between passivating reaction pathways. The measured gas-phase compositional data serves as a critical input for our advanced electrochemical SEI models to identify favorable vs unfavorable reaction pathways to stabilize Si. In addition to bolstering a fundamental understanding of Si reactivity, the present approach informs specific and quantifiable gas-phase metrics tied to calendar life improvements in Si, which can streamline and accelerate the process of next-generation material development.

DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION,ENERGY STORAGE↗

In-Time Safety Assessment & Risk Prediction for Unmanned Aerial Systems

One of the critical challenges in emerging autonomous systems is timely mitigation of hazards encountered during operation which may not be known or accounted for at the time of design. Efficient execution of unmanned systems therefore demands a paradigm shift from scheduled periodic maintenance to predictive risk analysis that includes condition-based-monitoring, real-time reliability assessment and hazard mitigation. Particularly, the state-of-health parameters needs to be computed at the component level, unit level as well as the integrated system level. While in the former two levels, the physics of health propagation may be based on underlying electro-mechanical properties, system level prognostics often relies on data-driven models. Further, uncertainty from model, measurements and input sources should be accurately quantified to generate meaningful prediction results that can be fed into reliable decision making processes. Finally, the expected risk and time to failure has to be computed based on the current state-of-health of the overall system. This talk presents a conceptual design of such an in-time safety assurance approach for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) operating at low altitudes near and over populated areas. Typical in-flight hazard incidents include unplanned detour, proximity to obstacles, mid-flight component faults, limited battery life and poor quality of GPS measurements. Safety assessment therefore comprises trajectory generation and re-plan, battery RUL computation, distributed fault diagnostics and uncertainty management of predicted trajectory based on GPS measurement noise. The entire monitoring framework will be demonstrated on simulated as well as real UAV flight experiments conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center. This tutorial will therefore guide the audience through a step-by-step tracking of an autonomous system with focus on in-time risk prediction in the presence of unforeseen hazards and uncertain environment.

diagnostics↗

Heat of Mixing During Fast Charge/Discharge of a Li-Ion Cell: A Study on NMC523 Cathode

Predicting temperature rise accurately during fast charge/discharge of a Li-ion cell is essential to avoid thermal runaway and extend battery life. While modeling the temperature rise, it is necessary to model the heat generation correctly. Heat of mixing, one of the four main sources of heat generation in a Li-ion battery, has often been considered insignificant and therefore excluded from modeling. When included, it is modeled using the expression from a Taylor expansion approximation. In this work, we have shown the conditions when including the heat of mixing becomes important and quantified the error associated with using the Taylor expansion, especially under high charge/discharge conditions. Consequently, we carry out the calculation of the rate of enthalpy change and the heat generation rate from the most fundamental equation for the rate of the total enthalpy change without simplifying assumptions or approximations. The heat generation rate calculated doing so naturally includes irreversible, reversible and mixing heat. We then exclusively separate out the heat of mixing by subtracting the rate of enthalpy change by reaction from the rate of the total enthalpy change. Results show that the contribution of heat of mixing in the total heat generated increases with the charge/discharge rate and is as large as 23% for a 6 C discharge. This result suggests that while modeling heat generation for fast charge/discharge, it is necessary to include the heat of mixing and avoid calculating it using the Taylor expansion approximation.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Performance Testing of Yardney Li-Ion Cells and Batteries in Support of JPL's 2009 Mars Science Laboratory Mission

In 2009, JPL is planning to launch an unmanned rover mission to the planet Mars. This mission, referred to as the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), will involve the use of a rover that is much larger than the previously developed Spirit and Opportunity Rovers for the 2003 Mars Exploration Rover (MER) mission, that are currently still in operation on the surface of the planet after more than three years. Part of the reason that the MER rovers have operated so successfully, far exceeding the required mission duration of 90 sols, is that they possess robust Li-ion batteries, manufactured by Yardney Technical Products, which have demonstrated excellent life characteristics. Given the excellent performance characteristics displayed, similar lithium-ion batteries have been projected to successfully meet the mission requirements of the up-coming MSL mission. Although comparable in many facets, such as being required to operate over a wide temperature range (-20 to 40 C), the MSL mission has more demanding performance requirements compared to the MER mission, including much longer mission duration (approx. 687 sols vs. 90 sols), higher power capability, and the need to withstand higher temperature excursions. In addition, due to the larger rover size, the MSL mission necessitates the use of a much larger battery to meet the energy, life, and power requirements. In order to determine the viability of meeting these requirements, a number of performance verification tests were performed on 10 Ah Yardney lithium-ion cells (MER design) under MSL-relevant conditions, including mission surface operation simulation testing. In addition, the performance of on-going ground life testing of 10 Ah MER cells and 8-cell batteries will be discussed in the context of capacity loss and impedance growth predictions.

MSL Rover↗

In-Time UAV Flight-Trajectory Estimation and Tracking Using Bayesian Filters

Rapid increase of UAV operation in the next decade in areas of on-demand delivery, medical transportation services, law enforcement, traffic surveillance and several others pose potential risks to the low altitude airspace above densely populated areas. Safety assessment of airspace demands the need for a novel UAV traffic management (UTM) framework for regulation and tracking of the vehicles. Particularly for low-altitude UAV operations, quality of GPS measurements feeding into the UAV is often compromised by loss of communication link caused by presence of trees or tall buildings in proximity to the UAV flight path. Inaccurate GPS locations may yield to unreliable monitoring and inaccurate prognosis of remaining battery life and other safety metrics which rely on future expected trajectory of the UAV. This work therefore proposes a generalized monitoring and prediction methodology for autonomous UAVs using in-time GPS measurements. Firstly, a typical 4D smooth trajectory generation technique from a series of waypoint locations with associated expected times-of-arrival based on B-spline curves is presented. Initial uncertainty in the vehicle's expected cruise velocity is quantified to compute confidence intervals along the entire flight trajectory using error interval propagation approach. Further, the generated planned trajectory is considered as the prior knowledge which is updated during its flight with incoming GPS measurements in order to estimate its current location and corresponding kinematic profiles. Estimation of position is denoted in dicrete state-space representation such that position at a future time step is derived from position and velocity at current time step and expected velocity at the future time step. A linear Bayesian filtering algorithm is employed to efficiently refine position estimation from noisy GPS measurements and update the confidence intervals. Further, a dynamic re-planning strategy is implemented to incorporate unexpected detour or delay scenarios. Finally, critical challenges related to uncertainty quantification in trajectory prognosis for autonomous vehicles are identified, and potential solutions are discussed at the end of the paper. The entire monitoring framework is demonstrated on real UAV flight experiments conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center.

Banerjee, Portia↗

Lithium-Ion Battery Life Model with Electrode Cracking and Early-Life Break-in Processes

This paper develops a physically justified reduced-order capacity fade model from accelerated calendar- and cycle-aging data for 32 lithium-ion (Li-ion) graphite/nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) cells. The large data set reveals temperature-, charge C-rate-, depth-of-discharge-, and state of charge (SOC)-dependent degradation patterns that would be unobserved in a smaller test matrix. Model structure is informed by incremental capacity analysis that shows loss of lithium inventory and cathode-material loss as the dominant capacity fade mechanisms. The model includes terms attributable to solid-electrolyte interface (SEI) growth, electrode cracking, cycling-driven acceleration of SEI growth, and "break-in" mechanisms that slightly decrease or increase available Li inventory early in life. The study explores what mathematical couplings of these mechanisms best describe calendar aging, cycle aging, and mixed calendar/cycle aging. Various approaches are discussed for extracting relevant stress factors from complex cycling profiles to predict lifetime during real-world battery loads using models trained on constant-current laboratory test results. The complexity of the present human-driven model identification process motivates future work in machine learning to more widely search and statistically discern the optimal model that correctly extrapolates capacity fade based on physical knowledge.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Non-destructive electrochemical diagnosis of failure mechanisms in aqueous zinc batteries

The early detection of secondary reactions that affect the life and performance of zinc manganese oxide batteries requires a shift from conventional time-consuming and often destructive procedures to rapid lifetime-predictive techniques. In this work, an electrochemical approach is employed to elucidate independent signatures for four common types of failure mechanisms in zinc manganese dioxide (Zn||MnO2) batteries—namely, the loss of zinc inventory, the loss of active material at the cathode, electrolyte depletion, and increased cell impedance. Our findings, specific to coin cell configurations, reveal that each induced failure mechanism can be distinctively modeled and identified based on responses from the rest voltage and columbic-efficiency data for prompt detection. For instance, electrolyte depletion response manifests a distinctive abrupt (>80 %) decrease in columbic efficiency (CE) and charge-rest voltage (Vc) while the discharge-rest voltage remained constant at ~1.3 V. Furthermore, electrolyte rejuvenation of the cell increased the CE to >95 % and restored Vc from ~0.3 to >1.7 V. Recovery experiments and reference performance tests demonstrated consistency between electrochemical descriptors and their associated failure mechanisms. Further, the outcomes of this work provide valuable insights and data models for some of the dominant failure mechanisms present in zinc manganese battery chemistries, which are beneficial to accelerated early-lifetime diagnosis and advancement of Zn batteries development.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Optical Structural Health Monitoring Device

This non-destructive, optical fatigue detection and monitoring system relies on a small and unobtrusive light-scattering sensor that is installed on a component at the beginning of its life in order to periodically scan the component in situ. The method involves using a laser beam to scan the surface of the monitored component. The device scans a laser spot over a metal surface to which it is attached. As the laser beam scans the surface, disruptions in the surface cause increases in scattered light intensity. As the disruptions in the surface grow, they will cause the light to scatter more. Over time, the scattering intensities over the scanned line can be compared to detect changes in the metal surface to find cracks, crack precursors, or corrosion. This periodic monitoring of the surface can be used to indicate the degree of fatigue damage on a component and allow one to predict the remaining life and/or incipient mechanical failure of the monitored component. This wireless, compact device can operate for long periods under its own battery power and could one day use harvested power. The prototype device uses the popular open-source TinyOS operating system on an off-the-shelf Mica2 sensor mote, which allows wireless command and control through dynamically reconfigurable multi-node sensor networks. The small size and long life of this device could make it possible for the nodes to be installed and left in place over the course of years, and with wireless communication, data can be extracted from the nodes by operators without physical access to the devices. While a prototype has been demonstrated at the time of this reporting, further work is required in the system s development to take this technology into the field, especially to improve its power management and ruggedness. It should be possible to reduce the size and sensitivity as well. Establishment of better prognostic methods based on these data is also needed. The increase of surface roughness with fatigue is closely connected to the microstructure of the metal, and ongoing research is seeking to connect this observed evidence of the fatigue state with microstructural theories of fatigue evolution to allow more accurate prognosis of remaining component life. Plans are also being discussed for flight testing, perhaps on NASA s SOFIA platform.

Buckner, Benjamin D.↗

Evaluation program for secondary spacecraft cells: Cycle life test

The service life and storage stability for several storage batteries were determined. The batteries included silver-zinc batteries, nickel-cadmium batteries, and silver-cadmium batteries. The cell performance characteristics and limitations are to be used by spacecraft power systems planners and designers. A statistical analysis of the life cycle prediction and cause of failure versus test conditions is presented.

Harkness, J. D.↗

Hubble Space Telescope six-battery nickel-cadmium mission simulation test

A simulation test of the six-battery nickel-cadmium mission to determine battery life and electrical power system (EPS) performance characteristics for the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) program, is described. The basic HST power system requirements are to provide power generation, energy storage, and EPS control and distribution for 2.5 years with the nickel-cadmium (NiCd) batteries at an end of life solar array of 2 years. Mission simulation life testing begain in April of 1986, and the batteries have completed their 2.5 year mission requirement. Conditions as close as practical to the actual predicted mission profiles were used. These included solar array degradation, load variations, beta angle changes, temperature changes (with excursions to 10 C), battery reconditioning, safemode simulations, and off-normal roll activities. Discounting system cycling interruptions caused by hardware, software, human error, and periodic updates and revisions, the HST EPS breadboard hardware operated continuously for 30 months and demonstrated the power system's ability to meet the HST requirement.

Jackson, Lorna G.↗

Accelerated battery-life testing - A concept

Test program, employing empirical, statistical and physical methods, determines service life and failure probabilities of electrochemical cells and batteries, and is applicable to testing mechanical, electrical, and chemical devices. Data obtained aids long-term performance prediction of battery or cell.

Mccallum, J.↗

Life capability of the silver electrode in alkaline electrochemical cells

Estimates of silver electrode degradation rates were made by comparing the recently measured capacities with the reported early life capacities. Chemical analyses were carried out to determine the extent of silver loss from the electrode and its distribution throughout the cell components. The results established that the silver electrode is very stable when stored at reduced temperatures in the range of 0 to -51 C, in which it exhibits a permanent degradation in capacity of 0.5%/year. The results also indicated that the silver electrode is not quite as stable when operated and stored at room temperature, where it exhibits permanent degradation in the range of 3% to 14%/year. These results were employed in predicting the life capability of the proposed new Ag-H2 cell and also in assessing the merits of employing silver electrodes in long-life probe batteries.

Frank, H. A.↗

Modelling a nickel-cadmium battery as a heterogeneous device

A common failure mode for nickel-cadmium batteries involves a nonuniform degradation of the performance of individual cells. This behavior is manifested as a divergence in voltage during cyclic operation. An empirically based performance model is presented which simulates a battery composed of heterogeneous cells. Battery performance is studied as a function of the distribution of cell performance characteristics. The technique has successfully predicted cell voltage divergence behavior observed during cycle life testing. It is noted that this work enhances understanding of life-test results and may improve life-test design and data analysis.

Glueck, Peter R.↗

Developing Deep Learning Models for System Remaining Useful Life Predictions: Application to Aircraft Engines

Prognostics and health management (PHM) is an important part of ensuring reliable operations of complex safety- critical systems. System-level remaining useful life (RUL) estimation is a much more complex problem than making estimations at the component level, and system-level RUL methodologies remain sparse in the literature. Model-based approaches have traditionally worked in the past for components such as capacitors, MOSFETs, batteries, or hard-drives (to name a few examples), but developing high fidelity dynamics models of cyber physical systems that can be used to study the effects of multiple degrading components in the system remains a challenging task. Some initial work on model-based System RUL predictions was demonstrated in Khorasgani, et al [1], but, to generalize the system-level prognostics problem, we have to resort to pure data driven and hybrid approaches. In this work, we propose an end-to-end data- driven framework for developing deep learning models to predict remaining useful life of cyber physical systems operating under unknown faulty conditions. The raw data is organized with a data schema that improves the model development process and down stream data analysis tasks. Due to the unknown faulty conditions, the raw sensor data is transformed into signals that expose the underlying degradation processes, which are then used for model development. Bayesian Optimization is used to tune the model parameters prior to training and validation. We show that this approach results in accurate predictions within 3 cycles to end of life (EOL). We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by applying it to the N-CMAPSS turbofan engine dataset recently released by NASA, which includes high fidelity degradation modeling, real world operating conditions, and a large set of fault operating modes.

Prognostics↗