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DOE OSTI2025

Biophysical model of eelgrass and water quality in Coos Bay, OR shows greater mitigation potential for ocean acidification than hypoxia

Seagrass beds provide important ecosystem services and are valued, in part, for their potential to mediate stressors such as ocean acidification and hypoxia (OAH) for sensitive species. However, the susceptibility of seagrasses to anthropogenic impacts and recent declines motivate the need to better understand the drivers of seagrass and the water quality consequences that occur with variation in seagrass abundance. To meet this need, we leveraged existing monitoring data (water quality and seagrass), hydrodynamic circulation model, and biogeochemical model framework with seagrass submodel, to produce a biophysical model of Coos Bay estuary, Oregon, U.S. The model includes biogeochemical processes involving water quality, plankton, seagrass, and sediment-water interactions. Ecosystem models like this are useful for evaluating complex estuarine systems because they allow us to extend our understanding of system dynamics beyond existing observations and perform experiments to identify the processes driving observed patterns. We used the biophysical model of Coos Bay to evaluate the dynamics of water quality and native eelgrass (Zostera marina) under three eelgrass abundance scenarios (zero eelgrass, current extent, and maximum observed extent) to elucidate the relationship between eelgrass and OAH. Including eelgrass in the Coos Bay model produced results that more closely resembled water quality observations - dissolved oxygen (DO) and pH were more dynamic in simulations with eelgrass, often having both higher highs and lower lows. While there were some areas of the estuary where DO improved with the addition of eelgrass to the model there was overall a small net increase in harmful DO conditions (based on a salmon physiological threshold). In contrast, ocean acidification conditions, pH and calcium carbonate saturation state for aragonite (Ω), were improved (based on oyster requirements) with the addition of eelgrass - although the magnitude of improvement differed seasonally and spatially. Our new model represents a useful tool - one which accounts for and controls the relevant physical and biogeochemical processes - to evaluate conditions that confer resilience or enhance vulnerability to OAH in an important Pacific Northwest coastal estuary and results can inform the OAH-related dynamics occurring in other eastern boundary current estuaries.

FVCOM-ICM↗

NASA NTRS2021

Importance of Quantifying the Full-depth Carbon Reservoir of Jamaica Bay Salt Marshes, New York

Constraining uncertainty in the global carbon cycle requires valid assessment of both surface and stored carbon in marine and coastal ecosystems (Blue Carbon) as well as terrestrial carbon (forests, peatlands, and soils) [Pendleton et al., 2012]. Quantifying the global carbon stock of coastal salt marshes, potentially the most efficient carbon-burying ecosystems in the world per area, is a key area of further research in both of these fields Pendleton et al., 2012. One of the largest challenges is that despite the fact that salt marshes often sequester carbon several meters deep, nearly all estimates of salt marsh carbon stocks consider only the upper 1 m of sediment (Windham-Myers et al., 2015) [54]. This is particularly concerning because coastal wetlands are increasingly at risk due to climate change, sea level rise, and anthropogenic disturbance and destruction (Deegan et al., 2012) [15]. Using full-depth measurements from marsh cores, we estimate the carbon stock of five salt marshes in the highly urbanized estuary of Jamaica Bay, New York and argue that partial-depth measurements can underestimate carbon stocks. These estimates use calculated carbon content and probe depth data of these marshes collected between 2000 and 2019, applying this data across the full area of the marsh obtained from satellite imagery. Carbon density measurements are then multiplied by the full-depth volume of the marshes to create an estimate of total carbon stock. In addition to calculating present-day estimates, we compare our carbon stock estimates to historical Jamaica Bay imagery to calculate historical carbon stocks and carbon loss. The carbon stock estimates presented here show a 95% carbon stock loss between 1885 and 2019 in Jamaica Bay and highlight the severe underestimation of carbon stocks without full-depth calculations. These findings have important implications for disappearing salt marshes with regard to the global carbon cycle and the incorporation of belowground carbon into global climate models. The findings are increasingly relevant for advocacy efforts aiming to conserve these marshes with sea level rise.

Tidal wetlands↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayes_Opt-SWMM: A Gaussian process-based Bayesian optimization tool for real-time flood modeling with SWMM

Real-time flood model plays a pivotal role in averting urban flood damage, particularly when there is minimal lead time for preparatory measures. However, urban flood modeling in real-time often contends with inherent uncertainties arising from input data uncertainty and parameter ambiguities. Here this study introduces a real-time calibration (RTC) tool called Bayes_Opt-SWMM, specifically tailored for real-time urban flood modeling and uncertainty optimization. This tool leverages the Gaussian process-based Bayesian optimization algorithm and interfaces seamlessly with the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM). It integrates real-time model forcing data and flood monitoring collected through sensors and gauges which are strategically placed within critical locations of urban drainage systems. Our approach hinges on the Surrogate Model based Uncertainty Optimization (SMUO) concept, providing an avenue for enhancing real-time flood modeling. Bayes_Opt-SWMM runs the optimization process using a surrogate model called Gaussian Process emulator with two inference methods: (1) the Gaussian Process (GP) model and (2) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm in GP model (GP_MCMC). Furthermore, three acquisition functions, namely Expected Improvement (EI), Maximum Probability of Improvement (MPI), and Lower Confidence Bound (LCB), facilitate optimal parameter fitting within the surrogate models. The efficiency of GP-based surrogate models in learning SWMM model parameters, leads to an improved uncertainty quantification and accelerated real-time flood modeling in urban areas. Overall, Bayes_Opt-SWMM emerges as a cost-effective and valuable tool for real-time flood modeling and monitoring, with significant potential for managing intelligent storm water systems in urban environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A non-commutative Bayes' theorem

Using a diagrammatic reformulation of Bayes' theorem, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of Bayesian inference in the setting of finite-dimensional C* -algebras. In other words, we prove an analogue of Bayes' theorem in the joint classical and quantum context. Our analogue is justified by recent advances in categorical probability theory, which have provided an abstract formulation of the classical Bayes' theorem. In the process, we further develop non-commutative almost everywhere equivalence and illustrate its important role in non-commutative Bayesian inversion. The construction of such Bayesian inverses, when they exist, involves solving a positive semidefinite matrix completion problem for the Choi matrix. This gives a solution to the open problem of constructing Bayesian inversion for completely positive unital maps acting on density matrices that do not have full support. In conclusion, we illustrate how the procedure works for several examples relevant to quantum information theory.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimization of the JUNO liquid scintillator composition using a Daya Bay antineutrino detector

To maximize the light yield of the liquid scintillator (LS) for the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO), a 20 t LS sample was produced in a pilot plant at Daya Bay. The optical properties of the new LS in various compositions were studied by replacing the gadolinium-loaded LS in one antineutrino detector. The concentrations of the fluor, PPO, and the wavelength shifter, bis-MSB, were increased in 12 steps from 0.5 g/L and 0.01 mg/L to 4 g/L and 13 mg/L, respectively. The numbers of total detected photoelectrons suggest that, with the optically purified solvent, the bis-MSB concentration does not need to be more than 4 mg/L. In order to bridge the one order of magnitude in the detector size difference between Daya Bay and JUNO, the Daya Bay data were used to tune the parameters of a newly developed optical model. Then, the model and tuned parameters were used in the JUNO simulation. Overall, this enabled to determine the optimal composition for the JUNO LS: purified solvent LAB with 2.5 g/L PPO, and 1 to 4 mg/L bis-MSB.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

On the mechanism of soot nucleation. II. E-bridge formation at the PAH bay

A recently proposed mechanism of soot nucleation based upon the formation of a rotationally-activated dimer in the collision of an aromatic molecule and a radical leading to a stable, doubly-bonded E-bridge between them, rooted in the existence of a five-membered ring on the molecule edge, has been further investigated with a focus on the 5-6 E-bridge forming in the reaction of a PAH cyclopenta group with a bay site of another PAH. As a prototype reaction of this kind, we examined the reaction between 4-phenanthrenyl and acenaphthylene and, to project these results to larger aromatic structures, we also explored the size effect of the E-bridge forming reactions by computing the 1-naphthyl + acenaphthylene system and comparing these results with the prior results for pyrenyl + acepyrene. The two systems have been studied through high-level G3(MP2,CC)//B3LYP/6-311G(d,p) ab initio calculations of their potential energy surfaces combined with the RRKM/Master Equation calculations of reaction rate constants. With PAH monomers of similar sizes involved, the formation of E-bridge structures at the bay radical sites appeared to be faster and lead to increased nucleation rates as compared to the zigzag-forming ones. Furthermore, a model combining both the bay and zigzag rotationally-induced formation of E-bridges successfully reaches the level of nucleation fluxes comparable to those of the irreversible pyrene dimerization, thus affirming the rotationally-activated dimerization as a feasible mechanism for soot particle nucleation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of Electron Antineutrino Oscillation Amplitude and Frequency via Neutron Capture on Hydrogen at Daya Bay

This Letter reports the first measurement of the oscillation amplitude and frequency of reactor antineutrinos at Daya Bay via neutron capture on hydrogen using 1958 days of data. With over 3.6 million signal candidates, an optimized candidate selection, improved treatment of backgrounds and efficiencies, refined energy calibration, and an energy response model for the capture-on-hydrogen sensitive region, the relative ν ¯ e rates and energy spectra variation among the near and far detectors gives sin 2 2 θ 13 = 0.075 9 − 0.0049 + 0.0050 and Δ m 32 2 = ( 2.7 2 − 0.15 + 0.14 ) × 10 − 3 eV 2 assuming the normal neutrino mass ordering, and Δ m 32 2 = ( − 2.8 3 − 0.14 + 0.15 ) × 10 − 3 eV 2 for the inverted neutrino mass ordering. This estimate of sin 2 2 θ 13 is consistent with and essentially independent from the one obtained using the capture-on-gadolinium sample at Daya Bay. The combination of these two results yields sin 2 2 θ 13 = 0.0833 ± 0.0022 , which represents an 8% relative improvement in precision regarding the Daya Bay full 3158-day capture-on-gadolinium result. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comprehensive Measurement of the Reactor Antineutrino Spectrum and Flux at Daya Bay

This Letter reports the precise measurement of the reactor antineutrino spectrum and flux based on the full dataset of 4.7 ×10 6 inverse-beta-decay candidates collected at Daya Bay near detectors. Expressed in terms of the inverse-beta-decay yield per fission, the antineutrino spectra from all reactor fissile isotopes and the specific 235 U and 239 Pu isotopes are measured with 1.3%, 3%, and 8% uncertainties, respectively, near the 3 MeV spectrum peak in reconstructed energy, reaching the best precision in the world. The total antineutrino flux and isotopic 235 U and 239 Pu fluxes are precisely measured to be 5.84 ± 0.07, 6.16 ± 0.12, and 4.16 ± 0.21 in units of 10 −43 cm 2 /fission. These measurements are compared with the Huber-Mueller model, the reevaluated conversion model based on the Kurchatov Institute measurement, and the latest summation model (SM2023). Furthermore, the Daya Bay flux shows good consistency with the Kurchatov Institute and SM2023 models but disagrees with the Huber-Mueller model. The Daya Bay spectrum, however, disagrees with all model predictions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

TRACER Perspectives on Gulf-Breeze and Bay-Breeze Circulations and Coastal Convection

Abstract This study explores gulf-breeze circulations (GBCs) and bay-breeze circulations (BBCs) in Houston–Galveston, investigating their characteristics, large-scale weather influences, and impacts on surface properties, boundary layer updrafts, and convective clouds. The results are derived from a combination of datasets, including satellite observations, ground-based measurements, and reanalysis datasets, using machine learning, changepoint detection method, and Lagrangian cell tracking. We find that anticyclonic synoptic patterns during the summer months (June–September) favor GBC/BBC formation and the associated convective cloud development, representing 74% of cases. The main Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) site located close to the Galveston Bay is influenced by both GBC and BBC, with nearly half of the cases showing evident BBC features. The site experiences early frontal passages ranging from 1040 to 1630 local time (LT), with 1300 LT being the most frequent. These fronts are stronger than those observed at the ancillary site which is located further inland from the Galveston Bay, including larger changes in surface temperature, moisture, and wind speed. Furthermore, these fronts trigger boundary layer updrafts, likely promoting isolated convective precipitating cores that are short lived (average convective lifetime of 63 min) and slow moving (average propagation speed of 5 m s −1 ), primarily within 20–40 km from the coast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

1965 Bay Area Transportation Study Commission Travel Survey

The Bay Area Transportation Study (BATS) Commission collected data from 30,686 Bay Area households using a face-to-face, in-home survey for a regional travel study to better understand their transportation needs and preferences. These households represented about 2.1% of the 1,387,000 Bay Area households in 1965. All household members around five years old were asked to record their travel for one assigned travel day. Data from this survey were used in efforts to develop travel demand models from the mid-1960s to the late 1970s.

1Hz data↗

DOE OSTI2024

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-UC1 LTAR UCB (Upper Chesapeake Bay) EC1

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-UC1 LTAR UCB (Upper Chesapeake Bay) EC1. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-UC1 LTAR UCB (Upper Chesapeake Bay) EC1 produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Upper Chesapeake Bay farm is privately owned. The farming that took place was performed by the Farm Owner. The ground is rolling terrain, next to wooded areas, private resdiences and other large fields maintained by private land owners. At the time of this collection period, the site housed another Eddy Covariance System and a two Phenocams. Crop has been continuous corn with plans to rotate to alfalfa grass mixture.

Goslee, Sarah↗

DOE OSTI2024

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-UC2 LTAR UCB (Upper Chesapeake Bay) EC2

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-UC2 LTAR UCB (Upper Chesapeake Bay) EC2. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-UC2 LTAR UCB (Upper Chesapeake Bay) EC2 produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Upper Chesapeake Bay farm is privately owned. The farming that took place was performed by the Farm Owner. The ground is rolling terrain, next to wooded areas, private resdiences and other large fields maintained by private land owners. At the time of this collection period, the site housed another Eddy Covariance System and a two Phenocams. Crop has been continuous corn with plans to rotate to alfalfa grass mixture.

Goslee, Sarah↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sequim Bay Underwater UXO Prototype Demonstration Site: Field Operations Summary, 2020

This report provides a summary of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL’s) activities to initiate Phase II development of the Sequim Bay Underwater UXO Prototype demonstration site (MR-2735) in 2020. Testbed development and field operations were conducted by PNNL’s Coastal and Marine Research Laboratory (MCRL) in support of the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) and Environmental Security Technology Certification Program (ESTCP) underwater Munitions Response (MR) program. A series of standardized underwater unexploded ordnance (UXO) demonstration sites (“testbeds”) are being developed by SERDP/ESTCP to test, evaluate, and demonstrate technologies that can detect, geolocate, and classify proud and buried munitions in 0–35 m water depths. As a prototype demonstration site, Sequim Bay is a semi-enclosed marine waterbody containing sand and mud sediments with minimal clutter in 5–30 m water depths. MCRL is located at the entrance to Sequim Bay, where it provides operational, logistical, and facilities support for testbed activities.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2021

Storm Water Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP) for the Limited Area, Multi-Purpose (LAMP) High Bay Laboratory

Kier + Wright, as Qualified SWPPP Developer (QSD), puts forth this Storm Water Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP) for the Limited Area, Multi-Purpose (LAMP) High Bay Laboratory facility (Project) located at Sandia National Laboratories, 7011 East Avenue, CA. The property is owned by the U.S. Department of Energy, and managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC. The project proposes converting an asphalt parking lot into a new high bay machine shop building and a low bay office building. Per the California State Water Resources Control Board’s (California State Water Board) Construction General Permit (CGP), a SWPPP is required when 1 acre or more of land is disturbed. The project site area of 1.6 acres exceeds the minimum acreage threshold of 1 acre and therefore requires SWPPP implementation. QSD has determined the sediment risk for this project, based on soil type at the site and starting and ending dates of construction, to be low (Section 3.4.1 and Appendix B). Receiving water for this project is the Arroyo Seco. QSD has determined the Arroyo Seco to be a high-risk receiving water because it has the three beneficial uses of “spawn”, “cold”, and “migratory” (Sections 3.3 and 3.4.2 and Appendix B). QSD has determined the overall risk level for the site to be Risk Level 2, based on a combination of low sediment risk and high receiving water risk (Appendix B). As such, QSD has delineated a variety of Best Management Practices (BMPs) to be employed during project construction to reduce or eliminate pollutants in stormwater runoff or any other discharges from the Project site. In addition to site-specific BMPs, this SWPPP report provides instruction for on site monitoring. Electronic copies of required documentation such as inspection reports, REAPs, annual report documentation, etc. shall be submitted to NTESS Sandia Delegated Representative via Newforma.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1972

Chesapeake Bay study

The objectives and scope of the Chesapeake Bay study are discussed. The physical, chemical, biological, political, and social phenomena of concern to the Chesapeake Bay area are included in the study. The construction of a model of the bay which will provide a means of accurately studying the interaction of the ecological factors is described. The application of the study by management organizations for development, enhancement, conservation, preservation, and restoration of the resources is examined.

Love, W. J.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Detection of turbidity dynamics in Tampa Bay, Florida using multispectral imagery from ERTS-1

In 1970, Congress authorized the deepening of the Tampa Bay channel (Rivers and Harbors Act of 1970) from 34 to 44 feet. In order to determine the effects of this deepening on circulation, water quality, and biota, during and after the construction, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Tampa Port Authority, has collected data and developed a digital simulation model of the bay. In addition to data collected using conventional tools, use is being made of data collected from ERTS-1. Return beam vidicon (RBV) multispectral data were collected, while a shell dredging barge was operating in the bay, and used for turbidity recognition and unique spectral signatures representative of type and amount of material in suspension. A three-dimensional concept of the dynamics of the plume was achieved by superimposing the parts of the plume recognized in each RBV band. This provides a background for automatic computer processing of ERTS data and three-dimensional modeling of turbidity plumes.

Coker, A. E.↗

NASA NTRS1974

The use of color infrared aerial photography in determining salt marsh vegetation and delimiting man-made structures of Lynnhaven Bay, Virginia

Color infrared aerial photography was found to be superior to color aerial photography in an ecological study of Lynnhaven Bay, Virginia. The research was divided into three phases: (1) Determination of the feasibility of correlating color infrared aerial photography with saline wetland species composition and zonation patterns, (2) determination of the accuracy of the aerial interpretation and problems related to the aerial method used; and (3) comparison of developed with undeveloped areas along Lynnhaven Bay's shoreline. Wetland species composition and plant community zonation bands were compared with aerial infrared photography and resulted in a high degree of correlation. Problems existed with changing physical conditions; time of day, aircraft angle and sun angle, making it necessary to use several different characteristics in wetland species identification. The main characteristics used were known zonation patterns, textural signatures and color tones. Lynnhaven Bay's shoreline was 61.5 percent developed.

Holman, R. E., III↗

NASA NTRS1974

On the robustness of a Bayes estimate

This paper examines the robustness of a Bayes estimator with respect to the assigned prior distribution. A Bayesian analysis for a stochastic scale parameter of a Weibull failure model is summarized in which the natural conjugate is assigned as the prior distribution of the random parameter. The sensitivity analysis is carried out by the Monte Carlo method in which, although an inverted gamma is the assigned prior, realizations are generated using distribution functions of varying shape. For several distributional forms and even for some fixed values of the parameter, simulated mean squared errors of Bayes and minimum variance unbiased estimators are determined and compared. Results indicate that the Bayes estimator remains squared-error superior and appears to be largely robust to the form of the assigned prior distribution.

Canavos, G. C.↗