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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Analytics-at-scale of Sensor Data for Digital Monitoring in Nuclear Plants (3 rd Annual Report)

Nuclear power plants collect and store large volumes of heterogeneous data from various components and systems. With recent advances in machine learning (ML) techniques, these data can be leveraged to develop diagnostic and short-term forecasting models to better predict future equipment condition. Maintenance operations can then be planned in advance whenever degraded performance is predicted, thus resulting in fewer unplanned outages and the optimization of maintenance activities. This enables lower maintenance costs and improves the overall economics of nuclear power. This report primarily focuses on developing a short-term forecasting process that leverages a feature selection process to distill large volumes of heterogeneous data and predict specific equipment parameters. A variety of feature selection methods, including Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and variance inflation factor (VIF), were used to select the optimal features as inputs for three ML methods: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). Each combination of model and input features was used to predict a pump bearing temperature both 1 and 24 hours in advance, based on actual plant system data. The optimal inputs for the LSTM and SVR were selected using the SHAP values, while the optimal input for the RF consisted solely of the response variable itself. Each model produced similar 1-hour-ahead predictions, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of roughly 0.006. For the 24-hour-ahead predictions, differences could be seen between LSTM, SVR, and RF, as reflected by model performances of 0.036 ± 0.014, 0.0026 ± 0, and 0.063 ± 0.004 RMSE, respectively. As big data and continuous online monitoring become more widely available, the proposed feature selection process can be used for many applications beyond the prediction of process parameters within nuclear infrastructure. This report summarizes the Fiscal Year 2021 research progress encompassing the (1) data cleaning and feature selection necessary for ML applications; (2) development of short-term forecasting models to predict future plant process parameters for both single and multiple time steps ahead; and (3) validation of the feature selection methods and short-term forecasting models given new data from different systems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of Short-Term Forecasting Models Using Plant Asset Data and Feature Selection

Nuclear power plants collect and store large volumes of heterogeneous data from various components and systems. With recent advances in machine learning (ML) techniques, these data can be leveraged to develop diagnostic and short-term forecasting models to better predict future equipment condition. Maintenance operations can then be planned in advance whenever degraded performance is predicted, thus resulting in fewer unplanned outages and the optimization of maintenance activities. This enables lower maintenance costs and improves the overall economics of nuclear power. This paper focuses on developing a short-term forecasting process that leverages a feature selection process to distill large volumes of heterogeneous data and predict specific equipment parameters. A variety of feature selection methods, including Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and variance inflation factor (VIF), were used to select the optimal features as inputs for three ML methods: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). Each combination of model and input features was used to predict a pump bearing temperature both 1 and 24 hours in advance, based on actual plant system data. The optimal inputs for the LSTM and SVR were selected using the SHAP values, while the optimal input for the RF consisted solely of the response variable itself. Each model produced similar 1-hour-ahead predictions, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of roughly 0.006. For the 24-hour-ahead predictions, differences could be seen between LSTM, SVR, and RF, as reflected by model performances of 0.036 +- 0.014, 0.0026 +- 0, and 0.063 +- 0.004 RMSE, respectively. As big data and continuous online monitoring become more widely available, the proposed feature selection process can be used for many applications beyond the prediction of process parameters within nuclear infrastructure.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predictive Data-driven Platform for Subsurface Energy Production

Subsurface energy activities such as unconventional resource recovery, enhanced geothermal energy systems, and geologic carbon storage require fast and reliable methods to account for complex, multiphysical processes in heterogeneous fractured and porous media. Although reservoir simulation is considered the industry standard for simulating these subsurface systems with injection and/or extraction operations, reservoir simulation requires spatio-temporal “Big Data” into the simulation model, which is typically a major challenge during model development and computational phase. In this work, we developed and applied various deep neural network-based approaches to (1) process multiscale image segmentation, (2) generate ensemble members of drainage networks, flow channels, and porous media using deep convolutional generative adversarial network, (3) construct multiple hybrid neural networks such as convolutional LSTM and convolutional neural network-LSTM to develop fast and accurate reduced order models for shale gas extraction, and (4) physics-informed neural network and deep Q-learning for flow and energy production. We hypothesized that physicsbased machine learning/deep learning can overcome the shortcomings of traditional machine learning methods where data-driven models have faltered beyond the data and physical conditions used for training and validation. We improved and developed novel approaches to demonstrate that physics-based ML can allow us to incorporate physical constraints (e.g., scientific domain knowledge) into ML framework. Outcomes of this project will be readily applicable for many energy and national security problems that are particularly defined by multiscale features and network systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Time resolved surface photovoltage measurements using a big data capture approach to KPFM

Optoelectronic behavior in materials such as organic/inorganic hybrid perovskites depend on a complex interplay between fast (electronic) and slower (ionic) processes. These processes are thought to be influenced by structural inhomogeneities (e.g. interfaces and grain boundaries) bringing forward the necessity for development of techniques capable of correlating nanostructure and photo-transport behavior. While Kelvin probe force microscopy (KPFM) is ideally suited to map surface potentials on relevant length scales, it lacks sufficient temporal resolution to extract the meaningful system dynamics. Here, we develop a time resolved surface photovoltage (SPV) measurement based on full information capture of the photodetector stream during open loop KPFM operation. G-Mode, or G-KPFM allows quantification of SPV with microsecond temporal and nanoscale spatial resolution. Using this technique, we observe concurrent spatial and fast temporal variations in the SPV generated across a methylammonium lead bromide (MAPbBr3) thin film, a possible indicator relating microstructure with heterogenous photo-transport behavior. Here, we further demonstrate the advantage of adopting big data analytics including unsupervised clustering methods to quickly discern spatial variability in the information rich SPV dataset. Beyond G-KPFM, such clustering methods will be useful for interpretation of the multidimensional datasets arising from the growing number of time resolved KPFM approaches now available.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2017

Time and Measurement Days

Questions in data analysis involving the concepts of time and measurement are often pushed into the background or reserved for a philosophical discussion. Some examples are: a) Is causality a consequence of the laws of physics, or can the arrow of time be reversed? b) Can we determine the arrow of time of an event? c) Do we need the continuum hypothesis for the underlying function in any measurement process? d) Can we say anything about the analyticity of the underlying process of an event? e) Would it be valid to model a non-analytical process as function of time? f) What are the implications of all these questions for classical Fourier techniques? However, in the age of big data gathered either from space missions supplying ultra-precise long time series, or e.g. LIGO data from the ground, the moment to bring these questions to the foreground seems arrived. The limitations of our understanding of some fundamental processes is emphasized by the lack of solution for problems open for more than 2 decades, such as the non-detection of solar g-modes, or the modal identification of main sequence stellar pulsators like delta Scuti stars. Flicker noise or 1/f noise, for example, attributed in solar-like stars to granulation, is analyzed mostly only to apply noise reduction techniques, neither considering the classical problem of 1/f noise that was introduced a 100 years ago, nor taking into account ergodic or non-ergodic solutions that make inapplicable spectral analysis techniques in practice. This topic was discussed by Nicholas W. Watkins during the ITISE meeting held in Granada in 2016. There he presented preliminary results of his research on Mandelbrot's related work. We reproduce here his quotation of Mandelbrot (1999) "There is a sharp contrast between a highly anomalous ("non-white") noise that proceeds in ordinary clock time and a noise whose principal anomaly is that it is restricted to fractal time", suggesting a connection with the above proposed topics that could be phrased as the following additional questions:a) Is self-organized criticality (SOC) frequent in astrophysical phenomena? b) Could all fractals in nature be considered stochastic? c) Could we establish mathematical/physical relationships between chaotic and fractal behaviors in time series? d) Could the differences between fractals and chaos in terms of analyticity be used to understand the residuals of the fitting of stellar light curves? In this meeting we would like to approximate these problems from a holistic and multidisciplinary perspective, taking into account not only technical issues but also the deeper implications. In particular the concept of connectivity (introduced in Pascual-Granado et al. A&A, 2015) could be used to implement, within the framework of ARMA processes, an "arrow of time" (see attached document), and so studying the possible implications in the concept of time as envisaged by Watkins.

data analysis↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Effect of New Ozone Cross Sections Applied to SBUV and TOMS Retrievals

The ozone cross sections as measured by Bass and Paur have been used for processing of SBUV and TOMS data since 1986. While these cross sections were a big improvement over those previously available, there were known minor problems with accuracy for wavelengths longward of 330 nm and with the temperature dependance. Today's requirements to separate stratospheric ozone from tropospheric ozone and for the derivation of minor species such as BrO and N02 place stringent new requirements on the accuracy needed. The ozone cross section measurements of Brion, Daumont, and Malicet (BDM) are being considered for use in UV-based ozone retrievals. They have much better resolution, an extended wavelength range, and a more consistent temperature dependance. Tests show that BDM retrievals exhibit lower retrieval residuals in the satellite data; i.e., they explain our measured atmospheric radiances more accurately. Total column ozone retrieved by the TOMS instruments is about 1.5% higher than before. Ozone profiles retrieved from SBUV using the new cross sections are lower in the upper stratosphere and higher in the lower stratosphere and troposphere.

McPeters, Richard D.↗
DOE OSTI2020

On‐site surrogates for large‐scale calibration

Abstract Motivated by a computer model calibration problem from the oil and gas industry, involving the design of a honeycomb seal, we develop a new Bayesian methodology to cope with limitations in the canonical apparatus stemming from several factors. We propose a new strategy of on‐site design and surrogate modeling for a computer simulator acting on a high‐dimensional input space that, although relatively speedy, is prone to numerical instabilities, missing data, and nonstationary dynamics. Our aim is to strike a balance between data‐faithful modeling and computational tractability in a calibration framework—tailoring the computer model to a limited field experiment. Situating our on‐site surrogates within the canonical calibration apparatus requires updates to that framework. We describe a novel yet intuitive Bayesian setup that carefully decomposes otherwise prohibitively large matrices by exploiting the sparse blockwise structure. Empirical illustrations demonstrate that this approach performs well on toy data and our motivating honeycomb example.

Huang, Jiangeng↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using machine learning and artificial intelligence to improve model-data integrated earth system model predictions of water and carbon cycle extremes

The research proposed here focuses on improving the predictive power of the land component of earth system models (ESMs) using (1) model-data fusion enabled by machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI), (2) predictive modeling through the combination of ML, AI, and big-data (comprising both model output and observations), and (3) insight of ESM structure and process mechanisms gleaned from complex data using ML and AI.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Findings on Subtask 3.1 - Bakken Rich Gas Enhanced Oil Recovery Project

Total in-place oil for the Bakken petroleum system (BPS) (which includes the Bakken and Three Forks Formations) has been estimated to be 600 billion barrels (bbl). However, BPS wells have decline rates as high as 85% over the first 3 years of their lives, and primary recovery factors typically range from 3% to 10% of original oil in place. Given the low initial recovery rates, even small incremental productivity improvements could dramatically increase technically recoverable oil in the BPS. One potential solution is enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using gas injection, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) or hydrocarbon (HC) gases. While commonly used in conventional reservoirs, CO2 EOR in unconventional tight oil reservoirs has been limited to pilot tests. EOR using rich gas (mixture of methane, ethane, and propane) has also been employed in numerous pilots in several unconventional plays and has recently been successfully applied in the Eagle Ford play. If successful, large-scale gas-based EOR in the BPS could dramatically increase oil productivity and recovery factors and extend the life of the play for decades. While CO2 may be a technically suitable working fluid for EOR in the BPS, supplies are limited and costs for using CO2 in EOR pilots are prohibitively high. Meanwhile, produced gas flaring has presented challenges for BPS operators in North Dakota. Analysis conducted by the North Dakota Pipeline Authority indicates that the current gas-gathering infrastructure in North Dakota is insufficient to accommodate all of the associated gas that is produced from the BPS. The geographically isolated location of North Dakota relative to large natural gas markets, combined with suppressed natural gas prices, has made it economically challenging for industry to invest capital in expanding gas-gathering infrastructure in the state. These circumstances led to a research program conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) in partnership with Liberty Resources Management Company LLC (LR) to examine the potential to use rich gas injection for EOR and mitigate flaring. A rich gas EOR pilot test was designed and executed by LR at its Stomping Horse development area in Williams County, North Dakota. From July 2018 through May 2019, a total of 160 million standard cubic feet (MMscf) of rich produced gas was injected into the BPS using five different wells in a sequential injection strategy. LR’s Leon–Gohrick drill spacing unit (DSU) was used as the test site. Regulatory oversight was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC). Technical support was provided by the EERC through a series of laboratory, modeling, and field-based activities, and additional post-pilot research activities incorporated learnings from the test, developed new laboratory data, improved fracture modeling methods, and developed machine learning and big data analytics. The results from the Stomping Horse rich gas EOR pilot activities indicate that developing an effective, economical EOR approach for the BPS will require more field tests. Another key lesson learned from the Stomping Horse tests is that detailed pre- and posttest data on reservoir conditions and fluids production are essential. Robust reservoir characterization provides information that is crucial to creating realistic geomodels and conducting valid dynamic simulations of potential EOR scenarios. A detailed understanding of the completions and production history of offset wells is also necessary for valid test result interpretations. This knowledge is essential to designing the operational parameters of injectivity tests and interpreting the results. A conformance control strategy is also essential to success. Laboratory-based examinations of rich gas interactions with reservoir fluids and rocks were conducted, with an emphasis on determining the ability to mobilize oil in the tight reservoir rocks and shales of the BPS. Injection fluid composition was shown to have a positive impact on reducing reservoir oil minimum miscibility pressure (MMP), reducing interfacial tension (IFT), and altering wettability. IFT and contact angle measurements demonstrated that wettability can be altered in the presence of rich gas, suggesting the potential to improve oil recovery. Iterative modeling of surface infrastructure and reservoir performance using data generated by the various project activities was conducted. A geologic model of the Stomping Horse area was built; history-matched oil, gas, and water production was used in simulations of various EOR scenarios. Early programmatic modeling results were used to support LR’s design and operation of the EOR pilot and to provide insight regarding optimization of future commercial-scale BPS EOR design and operations. Post-pilot modeling focused on alternative methods of understanding complex fracture networks and accelerating simulation time. These led to improved simulation run times and provide excellent history-matching results. Several of these iterative models were used as the bases for developing algorithms into machine learning and big data analytics. History matching in reservoir simulation is time-consuming and computer processing-intensive. Machine learning algorithms were created, and an automated history-matching tool was developed. A large set of synthetic reservoir simulations were created to generate well responses (oil, gas, and water production, well bottomhole pressure [BHP], and tracer or propane breakthrough) for a set of EOR operating parameters that included offset well status (open or closed), injectate (rich gas or propane), injection rate, and injection well BHP. A user interface was developed to provide real-time visualization. Machine learning-based models were developed to provide rapid forecasting of well performance given a set of user-defined EOR operating parameters. These predictive models allow the user to modify the offset well status, injection rate, and injection well BHP and rapidly forecast future production performance. The combination of real-time visualization tools with real-time forecasting tools provides a framework for real-time control—operational changes that the EOR site operator can enact (e.g., changing gas injection rates) to affect the observed performance and potentially improve the EOR outcome. There is great reason to be optimistic about the future of EOR in the Bakken. The results of the laboratory studies suggest significant potential for high rates of oil mobilization using produced field gas injection under the right conditions. The results of the lab studies, combined with rigorous statistical analysis of well production data and associated modeling efforts, confirm the notion that fluid mobility within the reservoir is controlled by fractures. As more knowledge is gained about the nature and distribution of fracture networks in the Bakken, the industry will be in a better position to predict and, ultimately, influence fluid mobility. New field tests are necessary to develop a more complete understanding of those conditions. Thoughtful and creatively engineered field tests within a well-characterized geologic setting will yield the fundamental knowledge needed to take Bakken oil production to the next level. This subtask was cofunded through the EERC–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission’s Oil and Gas Research Program and Computer Modelling Group.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Special Issue: Geostatistics and Machine Learning

Abstract Recent years have seen a steady growth in the number of papers that apply machine learning methods to problems in the earth sciences. Although they have different origins, machine learning and geostatistics share concepts and methods. For example, the kriging formalism can be cast in the machine learning framework of Gaussian process regression. Machine learning, with its focus on algorithms and ability to seek, identify, and exploit hidden structures in big data sets, is providing new tools for exploration and prediction in the earth sciences. Geostatistics, on the other hand, offers interpretable models of spatial (and spatiotemporal) dependence. This special issue on Geostatistics and Machine Learning aims to investigate applications of machine learning methods as well as hybrid approaches combining machine learning and geostatistics which advance our understanding and predictive ability of spatial processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Coordinated resource allocation to plant growth–defense tradeoffs

Summary Plant resource allocation patterns often reveal tradeoffs that favor growth (G) over defense (D), or vice versa. Ecologists most often explain G–D tradeoffs through principles of economic optimality, in which negative trait correlations are attributed to the reconciliation of fitness costs. Recently, researchers in molecular biology have developed ‘big data’ resources including multi‐omic (e.g. transcriptomic, proteomic and metabolomic) studies that describe the cellular processes controlling gene expression in model species. In this synthesis, we bridge ecological theory with discoveries in multi‐omics biology to better understand how selection has shaped the mechanisms of G–D tradeoffs. Multi‐omic studies reveal strategically coordinated patterns in resource allocation that are enabled by phytohormone crosstalk and transcriptional signal cascades. Coordinated resource allocation justifies the framework of optimality theory, while providing mechanistic insight into the feedbacks and control hubs that calibrate G–D tradeoff commitments. We use the existing literature to describe the coordinated resource allocation hypothesis (CoRAH) that accounts for balanced cellular controls during the expression of G–D tradeoffs, while sustaining stored resource pools to buffer the impacts of future stresses. The integrative mechanisms of the CoRAH unify the supply‐ and demand‐side perspectives of previous G–D tradeoff theories.

Monson, Russell K.↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Prognostics and Health Management Framework for Wind

Operation and maintenance costs are a major driver for levelized cost of energy of wind power plants and can be reduced through optimized operation and maintenance practices accomplishable by various prognostics and health management (PHM) technologies. In recent years, the wind industry has become more open to adopting PHM solutions, especially those focusing on diagnostics. However, prognostics activities are, in general, still at the research and development stage. On the other hand, the industry has a request to estimate a component's remaining useful life (RUL) when it has faulted, and this is a key output of prognostics. Systematically presenting PHM technologies to the wind industry by highlighting the RUL prediction need potentially helps speed up its acceptance and provides more benefits from PHM to the industry. In this paper, we introduce a PHM for wind framework. It highlights specifics unique to wind turbines and features integration of data and physics domain information and models. The output of the framework focuses on RUL prediction. To demonstrate its application, a data domain method for wind turbine gearbox fault diagnostics is presented. It uses supervisory control and data acquisition system time series data, normalizes gearbox temperature measurements with reference to environmental temperature and turbine power, and leverages big data analytics and machine-learning techniques to make the model scalable and the diagnostics process automatic. Another physics-domain modeling method for RUL prediction of wind turbine gearbox high-speed-stage bearings failed by axial cracks is also discussed. Bearing axial cracking has been shown to be the prevalent wind turbine gearbox failure mode experienced in the field and is different from rolling contact fatigue, which is targeted during the bearing design stage. The method uses probability of failure as a component reliability assessment and RUL prediction metric, which can be expanded to other drivetrain components or failure modes. The presented PHM for wind framework is generic and applicable to both land-based and offshore wind turbines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Ultrafast processing of pixel detector data with machine learning frameworks

Modern photon science performed at high repetition rate free-electron laser (FEL) facilities and beyond relies on 2D pixel detectors operating at increasing frequencies (towards 100 kHz at LCLS-II) and producing rapidly increasing amounts of data (towards TB/s). This data must be rapidly stored for offline analysis and summarized in real time for online feedback to the scientists. While at LCLS all raw data has been stored, at LCLS-II this would lead to a prohibitive cost; instead, enabling real time processing of pixel detector data (dark, gain, common mode, background, charge summing, subpixel position, photon counting, data summarization) allows reducing the size and cost of online processing, offline processing and storage by orders of magnitude while preserving full photon information. This could be achieved by taking advantage of the compressibility of sparse data typical for LCLS-II applications. Faced with a similar big data challenge a decade ago, computer vision stimulated revolutionary advances in machine learning hardware and software. We investigated if these developments are useful in the field of data processing for high speed pixel detectors and found that typical deep learning models and autoencoder architectures failed to yield useful noise reduction while preserving full photon information, presumably because of the very different statistics and feature sets in computer vision and radiation imaging. However, the raw performance of modern frameworks like Tensorflow inspired us to redesign in Tensorflow mathematically equivalent versions of the state-of-the-art, “classical” algorithms used at LCLS. The novel Tensorflow models resulted in elegant, compact and hardware agnostic code, gaining 1 to 2 orders of magnitude faster processing on an inexpensive consumer GPU, reducing by 3 orders of magnitude the projected cost of online analysis and compression without photon loss at LCLS-II. The novel Tensorflow models also enabled ongoing development of a pipelined hardware system expected to yield an additional 3 to 4 orders of magnitude speedup, necessary for meeting the data acquisition and storage requirements at LCLS-II, potentially enabling acquiring every single FEL pulse at full speed. Computer vision a decade ago was dominated by hand-crafted filters; their structure inspired the deep learning revolution resulting in modern deep convolutional networks; similarly, our novel Tensorflow filters provide inspiration for designing future deep learning models for ultrafast and efficient processing and classification of pixel detector images at FEL facilities.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Automatic detection of cataclysmic variables from SDSS images

Abstract Investigating rare and new objects have always been an important direction in astronomy. Cataclysmic variables (CVs) are ideal and natural celestial bodies for studying the accretion process of semi-detached binaries with accretion processes. However, the sample size of CVs must increase because a lager gap exists between the observational and the theoretical expanding CVs. Astronomy has entered the big data era and can provide massive images containing CV candidates. CVs as a type of faint celestial objects, are highly challenging to be identified directly from images using automatic manners. Deep learning has rapidly developed in intelligent image processing and has been widely applied in some astronomical fields with excellent detection results. YOLOX, as the latest YOLO framework, is advantageous in detecting small and dark targets. This work proposes an improved YOLOX-based framework according to the characteristics of CVs and Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) photometric images to train and verify the model to realise CV detection. We use the Convolutional Block Attention Module to increase the number of output features with the feature extraction network and adjust the feature fusion network to obtain fused features. Accordingly, the loss function is modified. Experimental results demonstrate that the improved model produces satisfactory results, with average accuracy (mean average Precision at 0.5) of 92.0%, Precision of 92.9%, Recall of 94.3%, and $F1-score$ of 93.6% on the test set. The proposed method can efficiently achieve the identification of CVs in test samples and search for CV candidates in unlabeled images. The image data vastly outnumber the spectra in the SDSS-released data. With supplementary follow-up observations or spectra, the proposed model can help astronomers in seeking and detecting CVs in a new manner to ensure that a more extensive CV catalog can be built. The proposed model may also be applied to the detection of other kinds of celestial objects.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
NASA NTRS1981

LANDSAT demonstration/application and GIS integration in south central Alaska

Automated geographic information systems were developed for two sites in Southcentral Alaska to serve as tests for both the process of integrating classified LANDSAT data into a comprehensive environmental data base and the process of using automated information in land capability/suitability analysis and environmental planning. The Big Lake test site, located approximately 20 miles north of the City of Anchorage, comprises an area of approximately 150 square miles. The Anchorage Hillside test site, lying approximately 5 miles southeast of the central part of the city, extends over an area of some 25 square miles. Map construction and content is described.

Burns, A. W.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gaussian Process Regression for Aggregate Baseline Load Forecasting

Demand response (DR) is one of the most effective ways to maintain the reliability and improve the flexibility of power systems. Accurate forecasts of baseline loads are essential for DR programs. In the era of big data, machine learning-based approaches present a unique opportunity for baseline load forecasting. Thus, this paper presents a machine learning-based approach using a relatively less explored algorithm, Gaussian process regression (GPR), to forecast aggregate baseline loads. As such, a dataset was generated using a set of EnergyPlus simulations. Using the generated dataset, a GPR-based forecasting model was developed. In addition, support vector regression (SVR)-, artificial neural network (ANN)-, and averaging-based models were developed as baseline models for comparison. These models were compared in terms of accuracy, simplicity, and integrity. The prediction performance of the models showed that the GPR-based model is more accurate and reliable than the others. Such high performance shows the potential of the GPR in baseline load forecasting. GPR, therefore, can be used for DR applications.

Amasyali, Kadir↗
DOE OSTI2020

Methods and Experiences for Developing Abstractions for Data-intensive, Scientific Applications

Developing software for scientific applications that require the integration of diverse types of computing, instruments, and data present challenges that are distinct from commercial software. These applications require scale, and the need to integrate various programming and computational models with evolving and heterogeneous infrastructure. Pervasive and effective abstractions for distributed infrastructures are thus critical; however, the process of developing abstractions for scientific applications and infrastructures is not well understood. While theory-based approaches for system development are suited for well-defined, closed environments, they have severe limitations for designing abstractions for scientific systems and applications. The design science research (DSR) method provides the basis for designing practical systems that can handle real-world complexities at all levels. In contrast to theory-centric approaches, DSR emphasizes both practical relevance and knowledge creation by building and rigorously evaluating all artifacts. In this work, we show how DSR provides a well-defined framework for developing abstractions and middleware systems for distributed systems. Specifically, we address the critical problem of distributed resource management on heterogeneous infrastructure over a dynamic range of scales, a challenge that currently limits many scientific applications. We use the pilot-abstraction, a widely used resource management abstraction for high-performance, high throughput, big data, and streaming applications, as a case study for evaluating the DSR activities. For this purpose, we analyze the research process and artifacts produced during the design and evaluation of the pilot-abstraction. We find DSR provides a concise framework for iteratively designing and evaluating systems. Finally, we capture our experiences and formulate different lessons learned.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗