Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Building energy prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Integrated Dynamic Facade Control with an Agent-based Architecture for Commercial Buildings

Dynamic façades have significant technical potential to minimize heating, cooling, and lighting energy use and peak electric demand in the perimeter zone of commercial buildings, but the performance of these systems is reliant on being able to balance complex trade-offs between solar control, daylight admission, comfort, and view over the life of the installation. As the context for controllable energy-efficiency technologies grows more complex with the increased use of intermittent renewable energy resources on the grid, it has become increasingly important to look ahead towards more advanced approaches to integrated systems control in order to achieve optimum life-cycle performance at a lower cost. This study examines the feasibility of a model predictive control system for low-cost autonomous dynamic façades. A system architecture designed around lightweight, simple agents is proposed. The architecture accommodates whole building and grid level demands through its modular, hierarchical approach. Automatically-generated models for computing window heat gains, daylight illuminance, and discomfort glare are described. The open source Modelica and JModelica software tools were used to determine the optimum state of control given inputs of window heat gains and lighting loads for a 24-hour optimization horizon. Penalty functions for glare and view/ daylight quality were implemented as constraints. The control system was tested on a low-power controller (1.4 GHz single core with 2 GB of RAM) to evaluate feasibility. The target platform is a low-cost ($35/unit) embedded controller with 1.2 GHz dual-core cpu and 1 GB of RAM. Configuration and commissioning of the curtainwall unit was designed to be largely plug and play with minimal inputs required by the manufacturer through a web-based user interface. An example application was used to demonstrate optimal control of a three-zone electrochromic window for a south-facing zone. The overall approach was deemed to be promising. Further engineering is required to enable scalable, turnkey solutions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Parallelized POD-based suboptimal economic model predictive control of a state-constrained Boussinesq approximation

Motivated by an energy efficient building application, we want to optimize a quadratic cost functional subject to the Boussinesq approximation of the Navier-Stokes equations and to bilateral state and control constraints. Since the computation of such an optimal solution is numerically costly, we design an efficient strategy to compute a sub-optimal (but applicationally acceptable) solution with significantly reduced computational effort. We employ an economic Model Predictive Control (MPC) strategy to obtain a feedback control. The MPC sub-problems are based on a linear-quadratic optimal control problem subjected to mixed control and state constraints and a convection-diffusion equation, reduced with proper orthogonal decomposition. Finally, to solve each sub-problem, we apply a primal-dual active set strategy. The method can be fully parallelized, which enables the solution of large problems with real-world parameters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

State-of-the-art on research and applications of machine learning in the building life cycle

Fueled by big data, powerful and affordable computing resources, and advanced algorithms, machine learning has been explored and applied to buildings research for the past decades and has demonstrated its potential to enhance building performance. This study systematically surveyed how machine learning has been applied at different stages of building life cycle. By conducting a literature search on the Web of Knowledge platform, we found 9579 papers in this field and selected 153 papers for an in-depth review. The number of published papers is increasing year by year, with a focus on building design, operation, and control. However, no study was found using machine learning in building commissioning. There are successful pilot studies on fault detection and diagnosis of HVAC equipment and systems, load prediction, energy baseline estimate, load shape clustering, occupancy prediction, and learning occupant behaviors and energy use patterns. None of the existing studies were adopted broadly by the building industry, due to common challenges including (1) lack of large scale labeled data to train and validate the model, (2) lack of model transferability, which limits a model trained with one data-rich building to be used in another building with limited data, (3) lack of strong justification of costs and benefits of deploying machine learning, and (4) the performance might not be reliable and robust for the stated goals, as the method might work for some buildings but could not be generalized to others. Finally, findings from the study can inform future machine learning research to improve occupant comfort, energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and resilience of buildings, as well as to inspire young researchers in the field to explore multidisciplinary approaches that integrate building science, computing science, data science, and social science.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigating the effects of local environment on nitrogen vacancies in high-entropy metal nitrides

High-entropy metal nitrides are an important material class in a variety of applications, and the role of nitrogen vacancies is of great importance for understanding their stability and mechanical properties. Here, we study six different high-entropy nitrides with eight different metal species to build a predictive model of the nitrogen-vacancy formation energy. We construct sets of supercells that maximize the number of unique nitrogen environments for a given chemistry, and then use density-functional theory to calculate the energy density for all nitrogen sites, and the vacancy formation energies for the highest, lowest, and a median subset based on the energy densities. The energy density of nitrogen sites correlates with the vacancy formation energies, for binary, ternary, and high-entropy nitrides. A linear regression model predicts the vacancy formation energies using only the nearest-neighbor composition; across our eight metals, we find the largest vacancy formation energies next to Hf, then Zr, Ti, V, Cr, Ta, Nb, and the lowest near Mo. Additionally, we see that binary nitride data show qualitatively similar vacancy formation energy trends for high-entropy nitrides; however, the binary data alone are insufficient to predict the complex nitride behavior. Our model is both predictive and easily interpretable, and correlates with experimental data.

DeSilva, Charith R. [Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-C↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Modeling and Optimization of Building Energy Consumption: a Case Study

Installing sensors and Building Automation Systems (BAS) allows controlling the facility operations while generating data that can be analyzed for model development. This work focuses on data-driven modeling of the building to optimize energy consumption. The City of Orlando aims to reduce its energy consumption so, they provided us access to their BAS for data and studying the operation of its facilities. We selected a mid-size pilot building to conduct data analysis and modeling. We develop an Application Programming Interface (API) to login to the servers and scrape data. The scraped data contains features ranging from environmental conditions to equipment activity. This dataset is a time series so, it's handled in accordance and analyzed to investigate patterns and relations between data points that help choose parameters for predictive models for building and equipment. Finally, the models are optimized to reduce the energy consumption of the facility.

Grover, Divas↗
DOE OSTI2023

PANDEMIC: Occupancy driven predictive ventilation control to minimize energy consumption and infection risk

During the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic, governments around the world have formulated policies requiring ventilation systems to operate at a higher outdoor fresh air flow rate for a sufficient time, which has led to a sharp increase in building energy consumption. Therefore, it is necessary to identify an energy-efficient ventilation strategy to reduce the risk of infection. In this study, we developed an occupant-number-based model predictive control (OBMPC) algorithm for building ventilation systems. First, we collected the occupancy and Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system (HVAC) data from March to July 2021. Then, four different models (Auto regression moving average-based multilayer perceptron (ARMA_MLP), Recurrent neural networks (RNN), Long short-term memory networks (LSTM), and Nonhomogeneous Markov with change points detection (NH_Markov)) were used to predict the number of room occupants from 15 min to 24 h ahead with an interval output. We found that each model could predict the number of occupants with 85% accuracy using a one-person offset. Furthermore, the accuracy of 15 min of the ahead prediction could reach 95% with a one-person offset, but none of them could track abrupt changes. The occupancy prediction results were used to calculate the ventilation demand using the Wells-Riley equation, and the upper bound can maintain an infection risk lower than 2% for 93% of the day. This OBMPC model could reduce the coil load by 52.44% and shift the peak load by 3 h up to 5 kW compared with 24 × 7 h full outdoor air (OA) system when people wear masks in the space. The occupancy prediction uncertainty could cause a 9% to 26% difference in demand ventilation, a 0.3°C to 2.4°C difference in zone temperature, a 28.5% to 44.5% difference in outdoor airflow rate, and a 10.7% to 28.2% difference in coil load.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

An approach for fast and accurate simulation of phase change material based thermal energy storage in buildings

Latent heat thermal energy storage (LHTES) has significant potential for mitigating peak electricity demand and enabling load shifting in buildings. Phase Change Material embedded heat exchangers (PCM-HX) can significantly improve energy demand management due to high storage capacity. However, PCM-HX evaluation typically depends on computationally expensive fully transient simulations, posing significant challenges for scalable system- and building-level energy assessments across different climates and system architectures. This paper presents a generalized, accurate, and computationally efficient methodology for simulating building energy systems integrated with LHTES. The PCM-HX transient performance is represented by performance maps generated using a Generalized Resistance-Capacitance Model (GRCM) that enables accurate predictions of arbitrary PCM-HXs at low computational cost. The feasibility of the proposed approach was verified using a case study considering a dual-mode heat pump-thermal energy storage (HP-TES) system simulated in Modelica with Spawn of EnergyPlus™ for a DOE prototype small office building in two locations: Tampa, FL, and International Falls, MN. The PCM-HX performance maps provided accurate predictions of PCM-HX transient behavior, with mean absolute percentage deviations within 2–4% compared to GRCM while also achieving at least 1800× reduction in computational time. Moreover, the HP-TES system achieved energy savings of up to 17.4% in Tampa, FL, and 62.2% in International Falls, MN, demonstrating the broader applicability of the proposed methodology across different climate zones. This work highlights the importance of robust PCM-HX models in enabling accurate and computationally efficient building-level simulations and enabling future research opportunities for investigating optimized HP-TES designs and advanced control strategies for grid-interactive buildings.

Modelica↗
DOE OSTI2022

Home energy management under realistic and uncertain conditions: A comparison of heuristic, deterministic, and stochastic control methods

We report home energy management systems (HEMS) have been shown to reduce energy bills and to provide grid services including peak demand reduction and demand flexibility. However, uncertainty in residential energy systems is a significant issue and can reduce the benefits of a HEMS to the homeowner or grid operator. Sources of uncertainty include weather forecasts, predictions of energy-related occupant activities (e.g., hot water draws), and parameter estimation for the building envelope and energy-consuming equipment. This paper tackles the problem of uncertainty by developing a framework that simulates HEMS in uncertain conditions and evaluates the performance of multiple control strategies. A linear, reduced-order residential building model for model predictive control applications is derived and compared to a full-order model. Stochastic model predictive control is shown to perform better than deterministic and heuristic methods when considering realistic forecasts with uncertainty. The framework can evaluate the performance of HEMS in real-world applications, which can help de-risk HEMS deployment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Surrogate model evaluation and building energy benchmarking for commercial buildings

Building energy consumption benchmarking involves challenges associated with various energy patterns for different building types; heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system types; and climates. Given significant variation in energy use patterns, accurate prediction of long-term energy use using surrogate models remains challenging. Multiple linear regression (MLR) is commonly used for building energy benchmarking because of its simple structure; however, it lacks accuracy compared to other black-box models. Although many studies have compared surrogate models and offer guidance on model selection based on metrics, they do not provide detailed analysis on improving the surrogate model accuracy. In this paper, we implement a surrogate model using polynomial ridge regression (i.e., MLR with interaction terms combined with ridge regularization) for small office and retail strip mall buildings across six HVAC system types and all climate zones, for electricity and natural gas in baseline and proposed scenarios. A simulation workflow is developed using OpenStudio TM /EnergyPlus TM to generate simulation data using measures over a wide range of efficiency inputs. Enhancements based on statistical insights are used for improving the model accuracy using filters, input transformations, and change points. Surrogate models achieved average coefficient of variation of the root mean squared error (CVRMSE) values of 2.17, 1.06, 2.05, and 3.26 for proposed electricity, proposed natural gas, baseline electricity, and baseline natural gas, respectively, with enhancements reducing CVRMSE by an average of 14.9% across all combinations. We provide model interpretation via Shapley additive explanations to determine which input variables most influence energy consumption and provide supportive arguments for enhancements.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2011

Downscaling NASA Climatological Data to Produce Detailed Climate Zone Maps

The design of energy efficient sustainable buildings is heavily dependent on accurate long-term and near real-time local weather data. To varying degrees the current meteorological networks over the globe have been used to provide these data albeit often from sites far removed from the desired location. The national need is for access to weather and solar resource data accurate enough to use to develop preliminary building designs within a short proposal time limit, usually within 60 days. The NASA Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project was established by NASA to provide industry friendly access to globally distributed solar and meteorological data. As a result, the POWER web site (power.larc.nasa.gov) now provides global information on many renewable energy parameters and several buildings-related items but at a relatively coarse resolution. This paper describes a method of downscaling NASA atmospheric assimilation model results to higher resolution and maps those parameters to produce building climate zone maps using estimates of temperature and precipitation. The distribution of climate zones for North America with an emphasis on the Pacific Northwest for just one year shows very good correspondence to the currently defined distribution. The method has the potential to provide a consistent procedure for deriving climate zone information on a global basis that can be assessed for variability and updated more regularly.

Chandler, William S.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep-Learning-Based Multi-Timescale Load Forecasting in Buildings: Opportunities and Challenges from Research to Deployment

Electricity load forecasting for buildings and campuses is becoming increasingly important as the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) grows. Efficient operation and dispatch of DERs require reasonably accurate predictions of future energy consumption in order to conduct near-real-time optimized dispatch of on-site generation and storage assets. Electric utilities have traditionally performed load forecasting for load pockets spanning large geographic areas, and therefore, forecasting has not been a common practice by buildings and campus operators. Given the growing trends of research and prototyping in the grid-interactive efficient buildings domain, characteristics beyond simple algorithm forecast accuracy are important in determining the algorithm's true utility for smart buildings. Other characteristics include the overall design of the deployed architecture and the operational efficiency of the forecasting system. In this work, we present a deep-learning-based load forecasting system that predicts the building load at 1-hour intervals for 18 hours in the future. We also discuss challenges associated with the real-time deployment of such systems as well as the research opportunities presented by a fully functional forecasting system that has been developed within the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Intelligent Campus program.

building load forecasting↗
DOE OSTI2023

Control of Behind-the-Meter Resources for Enhancing the Resilience of Residential Buildings

There is increased concern about the impacts of frequent power outages, caused primarily by extreme weather conditions. With increasing behind-the-meter resources such as solar photovoltaics (PV), battery energy storage, and controllable loads, these resources - if properly coordinated - can meet critical loads even during an outage. Resilience building controls can coordinate and operate these resources to enhance the resiliency of buildings supporting critical loads for longer duration. In this paper, we present two resilience building controls: rule-based control and model predictive control (MPC). We simulated various scenarios considering different locations, seasons, outage types, and times of outages to evaluate the performance of resilience controls. The results show that MPC-based control can enhance resilience up to 65% compared to rule-based control. Similarly, PV self-consumption and occupant thermal comfort both increase during outages with MPC-based control.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Wave Prediction using X-Band Radar (Final Summary Report)

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is the best controls framework available to wave energy today. It allows for the maximization of energy yield from a WEC system while respecting various constraints and losses in the system. This type of constrained optimization is a critical capability for the techno-economic optimization of WEC devices and is difficult to do effectively with causal controls frameworks. MPC requires a future prediction of wave excitation forces, requiring wave prediction on a future time horizon of up to 30 seconds. The future horizon required is highly dependent on the WEC and PTO type available. To our knowledge no-one has been able to implement MPC on a WEC device at sea, due to the fact that phase-resolved wave-prediction is not a capability that has been sufficiently developed to date. The key objectives of this project are focused on developing “industry-ready” wave prediction technology building blocks that can be applied to a wide range of different wave energy conversion topologies. Our collaborative work with device developers has demonstrated that the level of improvement attainable for any particular device is heavily dependent on the device and PTO topology chosen. The range of annual average power capture improvements is on the order of 10% to over 100%. However, the important aspect is that we can get within about 10% of theoretical upper limits even when considering errors in the wave prediction and more importantly, we can optimize performance while respecting various constraints such as motion amplitude or peak structural loads. The combination of improved performance while limiting structural loads has a net effect of reducing the levelized cost of energy from these emerging technologies and allows us to design control laws that meet an economic optimum. Efforts under a previous project on controls has focused on developing a set of wave-prediction algorithms that work by leveraging a network of wave sensing measurement buoys that are equipped with real-time telemetry. The present work is focusing primarily on using X-band radar to measure the wave-field around the WEC to predict the future excitation forces on the structure and combining the measurements of these different sources to create improvements in the wave-prediction accuracy.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

Practical challenges of model predictive control (MPC) for grid interactive small and medium commercial buildings

To the urgent call for mitigating climate change, substantial initiatives have been undertaken to deploy grid-interactive heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) controls, such as model predictive control (MPC) for buildings. These efforts typically aim to curtail peak energy demand, shift load and enhance overall energy efficiency. With the recent development of low-cost MPC technologies that don’t require extensive instrumentation or manual modeling, small and medium commercial buildings (SMCBs), which rarely utilize advanced HVAC control systems, have become candidates for grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs). However, despite the potential benefits and maturity of the technology itself, several practical challenges remain in real-world implementation. In this paper, we share the practical challenges that we have encountered in implementing and testing three types of MPC solutions (ON/OFF unit, dualfuel, and VRF systems) on multiple SMCB sites. We describe the MPC deployment process and discuss the lessons learned. The site selection, eligibility, and retrofit availability (e.g., utility price structure, thermostat communications, etc.) are the main discussion points at the beginning of the project. Also, the modeling automation and the best practices for interacting with endusers and handling erroneous situations are presented for successful operations.

woo Ham, Sang↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven modeling of dynamic occupant thermostat override behavior for demand response applications

Buildings consume nearly 40% of global energy and produce similar emissions. Whiletechnological advances address efficiency, occupant behavior causes energy use variations up to 300% between identical buildings. This gap between predicted and actual building performance impacts building design, operations, and grid demand management programs. Through analyses of smart thermostat data from 1,400 single-occupant homes, the researchdemonstrates that occupants respond to 8°F thermostat setpoint changes within a median of 15 minutes, while 2°F changes trigger responses within a median of 30 minutes. This highlights an understudied temporal relationship between thermostat setbacks and response time of occupant behaviors. Models of such behavior dynamics are required to incorporate occupant impacts into building performance simulation. A key contribution of this dissertation is the Thermal Frustration Theory (TFT), which positsthat thermal discomfort driven behaviors are caused by the time-accumulation of discomfort, not simply a temperature deviation threshold or a delay from an initiating event. Using a dataset of 634 thermostats, each with 25+ manual setpoint changes, a comparative analysis of TFT and comfort zone and a delayed response theories demonstrated that personalized TFT models better predict when manual setpoint change occur. This was measured by the area under the curve statistical measure (AUC); all three models perform similarly by a Matthews Correlation Coefficient measure. Higher AUC performance is especially important for modeling occupant behavior in demand response programs where false negatives of rare occupant interactions could adversely affect grid stability. EnergyPlus based simulations were conducted with TFT-derived occupant models, demonstrating the ability to identify parameters of known TFT models from only data observable with smart thermostats, even under the presence of noise from routine overrides. Overall, the dissertation highlights that thermostat interactions are neither static,instantaneous, nor driven solely by the environment. Instead, temporal accumulation of discomfort and routine-based behavior play important roles. The methodology and results offer a pathway towards more accurate modeling of human-building interactions for policy assessment, building design, and demand response programs.

Sharma, Kunind [Northeastern University] (ORCID:00↗
DOE OSTI2022

SolarPlus-Optimizer v0.1

With the falling costs of solar arrays and battery storage and reduced reliability of the grid due to natural disasters, small-scale local generation and storage resources are beginning to proliferate. However, very few software options exist for integrated control of building loads, batteries and other distributed energy resources. The available software solutions on the market can force customers to adopt one particular ecosystem of products, thus limiting consumer choice, and are often incapable of operating independently of the grid during blackouts. In this software package, we present the "Solar+ Optimizer" (SPO), a control platform that provides demand flexibility, resiliency and reduced utility bills, built using open-source software. SPO employs Model Predictive Control (MPC) to produce real time optimal control strategies for the building loads and the distributed energy resources on site. SPO is designed to be vendor-agnostic, protocol-independent and resilient to loss of wide-area network connectivity. The software was evaluated in a real convenience store in northern California with on-site solar generation, battery storage and control of HVAC and commercial refrigeration loads. Preliminary tests showed price responsiveness of the building and cost savings of more than 10% in energy costs alone.

Prakash, AnandKrishnan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Hydronic Heating for Comfort and Performance in Multifamily Housing

Inefficient control settings in multifamily boilers often lead to substantial energy and cost penalties. To address this, a Fault Detection and Diagnostic (FDD) tool was developed to automate data analysis and identify operational faults such as suboptimal outdoor temperature sensor placement, misconfigured outdoor air reset (OAR) curves, excess boiler cycling, and domestic hot water (DHW) setpoint errors. By comparing pre- and post-implementation periods and applying engineering models, the tool quantifies energy savings and reduces manual analysis time by over 90%. Testing on over 100 monitored sites and a targeted subset of 12 buildings showed an average 11% energy savings from remote optimization; further validation across 19 OAR curve changes confirmed the tool’s accuracy, predicting actual savings within ±5% for most cases. Simple payback can be under three years for many multifamily buildings, though rising hardware, labor, and fuel costs create uncertainties, and decarbonization goals increasingly shift focus to electrification. The FDD tool remains invaluable for optimizing existing boilers, enhancing future electrification measures, and adapting to new technologies by refining building load estimates. In doing so, it supports both near-term efficiency and long-term transitions to low-carbon alternatives, ensuring buildings achieve substantial cost and energy benefits throughout their system lifecycles.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗