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DOE OSTI2021

Mining and Validating Social Media Data for COVID-19–Related Human Behaviors Between January and July 2020: Infodemiology Study

Background: Health authorities can minimize the impact of an emergent infectious disease outbreak through effective and timely risk communication, which can build trust and adherence to subsequent behavioral messaging. Monitoring the psychological impacts of an outbreak, as well as public adherence to such messaging, is also important for minimizing long-term effects of an outbreak. Objective: We used social media data from Twitter to identify human behaviors relevant to COVID-19 transmission, as well as the perceived impacts of COVID-19 on individuals, as a first step toward real-time monitoring of public perceptions to inform public health communications. Methods: We developed a coding schema for 6 categories and 11 subcategories, which included both a wide number of behaviors as well codes focused on the impacts of the pandemic (eg, economic and mental health impacts). We used this to develop training data and develop supervised learning classifiers for classes with sufficient labels. Classifiers that performed adequately were applied to our remaining corpus, and temporal and geospatial trends were assessed. We compared the classified patterns to ground truth mobility data and actual COVID-19 confirmed cases to assess the signal achieved here. Results: We applied our labeling schema to approximately 7200 tweets. The worst-performing classifiers had F1 scores of only 0.18 to 0.28 when trying to identify tweets about monitoring symptoms and testing. Classifiers about social distancing, however, were much stronger, with F1 scores of 0.64 to 0.66. We applied the social distancing classifiers to over 228 million tweets. We showed temporal patterns consistent with real-world events, and we showed correlations of up to –0.5 between social distancing signals on Twitter and ground truth mobility throughout the United States. Conclusions: Behaviors discussed on Twitter are exceptionally varied. Twitter can provide useful information for parameterizing models that incorporate human behavior, as well as for informing public health communication strategies by describing awareness of and compliance with suggested behaviors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

COVID-19 Biomarkers and Advanced Sensing Technologies for Point-of-Care (POC) Diagnosis

COVID-19, also known as SARS-CoV-2 is a novel, respiratory virus currently plaguing humanity. Genetically, at its core, it is a single-strand positive-sense RNA virus. It is a beta-type Coronavirus and is distinct in its structure and binding mechanism compared to other types of coronaviruses. Testing for the virus remains a challenge due to the small market available for at-home detection. Currently, there are three main types of tests for biomarker detection: viral, antigen and antibody. Reverse Transcription-Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) remains the gold standard for viral testing. However, the lack of quantitative detection and turnaround time for results are drawbacks. This manuscript focuses on recent advances in COVID-19 detection that have lower limits of detection and faster response times than RT-PCR testing. The advancements in sensing platforms have amplified the detection levels and provided real-time results for SARS-CoV-2 spike protein detection with limits as low as 1 fg/mL in the Graphene Field Effect Transistor (FET) sensor. Additionally, using multiple biomarkers, detection levels can achieve a specificity and sensitivity level comparable to that of PCR testing. Proper biomarker selection coupled with nano sensing detection platforms are key in the widespread use of Point of Care (POC) diagnosis in COVID-19 detection.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

U.S. Commercial Building Stock Analysis of COVID-19 Mitigation Strategies: Preprint

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the importance of improving building indoor air quality to reduce occupants’ chances of contracting airborne illness. The ASHRAE Epidemic Task Force (ASHRAE-ETF) released several COVID-19 mitigation strategies at the onset of the pandemic. This study explores four of those recommendations for reducing transmission of COVID-19 inside buildings: (1) 100% outdoor air ventilation, (2) MERV-13 or better filters, (3) demand control ventilation removal, and (4) HVAC flushing mode. These recommendations were simulated and assessed using ComStock, a model of the U.S. commercial building stock. The study showed the 100% outdoor air ventilation recommendation had the largest impact on energy consumption, noncoincident peak demand, and thermostat violations. Removing demand control ventilation had the smallest national aggregate impact, installing MERV-13 filters led to slight increases in energy use and peak demand, and HVAC outdoor air flushing led to modest energy use and peak demand increases.

building energy modelling↗

DOE OSTI2021

Resilience of electric utilities during the COVID-19 pandemic in the framework of the CIGRE definition of Power System Resilience

Resilience is a vital concept in engineering, business, and natural sciences, and is a measure of the ability of an entity to withstand High Impact Low Probability (HILP) events. During the COVID-19 pandemic, which started in late 2019/early 2020, power system utilities around the globe have responded in effective and efficient ways to enhance the resilience of their organisations, both in terms of real-time operations and prudent management of its infrastructure, in order to continue their mandate in providing reliable supply to meet customer demands. Here, this paper presents the CIGRE definition for power system resilience, established by the C4.47 Working Group in 2018, and demonstrates the application of resilience-oriented thinking within the electrical sector. The response and recovery efforts are described, with respect to the key actionable measures integral to the power system resilience definition, taken before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. A practical conceptual framework is also presented for thinking about resilience in terms of three key components of resilience strategies: organisational, infrastructure and operational resilience. The paper also discusses the different strategies adopted in response to COVID-19, based on the C4.47 members’ experiences during the pandemic. Finally, a case study is presented, which proves the effectiveness of a set of response measures, using graph theory and the characteristics of the staff-asset interactions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Adoption of delivery services in light of the COVID pandemic: Who and how long?

A significant growth in demand for online shopping in light of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID) crisis has received attention from transportation practitioners, policy-makers, and researchers. However, an important question arises in this increase in online shopping and resulting deliveries: How long will this last? Very little is known whether this popularity would last a long time. Here, to address this question, the authors conducted a survey of 915 individuals residing in the U.S. and classified them into the four distinctive consumer types (i.e., the prior adopter, temporary adopter and permanent new adopter, and non-adopter) depending on their usage of delivery services before, during, and after (expected) the COVID crisis. This research aims to gain behavioral insight by exploring the differences between the four consumer types and investigating factors affecting the initial adoption and continuance intention of using delivery services. The descriptive analysis revealed that there are clear differences not only between the four types of consumers but also between the four product types (i.e., grocery, food, home goods, and other packages) considered in the survey. The models found that factors affecting the initial adoption and continuance intention are different from the previous studies conducted before the COVID pandemic. Implications for planning and policymaking are also discussed.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Resilient NdFeB magnet recycling under the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic: Stochastic programming and Benders decomposition

Neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets are the most powerful magnets per unit volume sold in the commercial market. Despite the increasing demand for clean energy applications such as electric vehicles and wind turbines, disruptive events including the COVID-19 pandemic have caused significant uncertainties in the supply and demand for NdFeB magnets. Therefore, this study aims to alleviate the risk of supply shortage for NdFeB magnets and the containing critical materials, rare-earth elements (REEs), through the development of a resilient reverse supply chain and logistics network design. We develop scenarios to model the unique impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the proposed business, incorporating both disruption intensity and recovery rate. We formulate a chance-constrained two-stage stochastic programming model to maximize the profit while guaranteeing the network resiliency against disruption risks. To solve the problem in large-scale instances, we develop an efficient Benders decomposition algorithm that reduces the computational time by 98.5% on average compared to the default CPLEX algorithm. When applied to the United States, the model suggests the optimal facility locations, processing capacities, inventory levels, and material flows for NdFeB magnet recyclers that could meet 99.7% of the demand. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to incorporate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic to design a resilient NdFeB magnet recycling supply chain and logistics network, leveraging risk-averse stochastic programming.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

COVID-19: Effects of Environmental Conditions on the Propagation of Respiratory Droplets

As coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to spread, a detailed understanding on the transmission mechanisms is of paramount importance. The disease transmits mainly through respiratory droplets and aerosol. Although models for the evaporation and trajectory of respiratory droplets have been developed, how the environment impacts the transmission of COVID-19 is still unclear. In this study, we investigate the propagation of respiratory droplets and aerosol particles generated by speech under a wide range of temperatures (0–40 °C) and relative humidity (0–92%) conditions. We show that droplets can travel three times farther in low-temperature and high-humidity environment, whereas the number of aerosol particles increases in high-temperature and low-humidity environments. The results also underscore the importance of proper ventilation, as droplets and aerosol spread significantly farther in airstreams. This study contributes to the understanding of the environmental impact on COVID-19 transmission.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Human Mobility to Parks Under the COVID-19 Pandemic and Wildfire Seasons in the Western and Central United States

In 2020, people's health suffered a great crisis under the dual effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the extensive, severe wildfires in the western and central United States. Parks, including city, national, and cultural parks, offer a unique opportunity for people to maintain their recreation behaviors following the social distancing protocols during the pandemic. However, massive forest wildfires in western and central US, producing harmful toxic gases and smoke, pose significant threats to human health and affect their recreation behaviors and mobility to parks. In this study, we employed the geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) Models to investigate how COVID-19 and wildfires jointly shaped human mobility to parks, regarding the number of visits per capita, dwell time, and travel distance to parks, during June - September 2020. We detected strong correlations between visitations and COVID-19 incidence in southern Montana, western Wyoming, Colorado, and Utah before August. However, the pattern was weakened over time, indicating the decreasing trend of the degree of concern regarding the pandemic. Moreover, more park visits and lower dwell time were found in parks further away from wildfires and less air pollution in Washington, Oregon, California, Colorado, and New Mexico, during the wildfire season, suggesting the potential avoidance of wildfires when visiting parks. This study provides important insights on people's responses in recreation and social behaviors when facing multiple severe crises that impact their health and wellbeing, which could support the preparation and mitigation of the health impacts from future pandemics and natural hazards.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Widespread Wildfires Over the Western United States in 2020 Linked to Emissions Reductions During COVID-19

Widespread wildfires struck western United States in 2020, directly damaging properties and threatening human lives. Meanwhile, the COVID-19 pandemic rapidly spread across the globe in 2020, which disrupted human activities and resulted in substantial reductions in anthropogenic emissions. Here, we investigate the effects of the emissions reductions of aerosols, precursors, and greenhouse gases during the pandemic on wildfire weather conditions in 2020 over western United States by using an earth system model together with observational data. We show that the COVID-19 emissions reductions in model experiments increased surface air temperature and decreased precipitation and relative humidity due to a weakened moisture transport, which explains 10-40% of the observed increase in the risk of wildfires over western United States in 2020. In conclusion, this study suggests that COVID-19-related abrupt emissions reductions have an unexpected influence on wildfires, highlighting a different but important role of human activities in affecting wildfire risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The COVID-19 High-Performance Computing Consortium

In March of 2020, recognizing the potential of High Performance Computing (HPC) to accelerate understanding and the pace of scientific discovery in the fight to stop COVID-19, the HPC community assembled the largest collection of worldwide HPC resources to enable COVID-19 researchers worldwide to advance their critical efforts. Amazingly, the COVID-19 HPC Consortium was formed within one week through the joint effort of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the National Science Foundation (NSF), and IBM to create a unique public–private partnership between government, industry, and academic leaders. This article is the Consortium's story–how the Consortium was created, its founding members, what it provides, how it works, and its accomplishments. We will reflect on the lessons learned from the creation and operation of the Consortium and describe how the features of the Consortium could be sustained as a National Strategic Computing Reserve to ensure the nation is prepared for future crises.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Excess deaths reveal unequal impact of COVID-19 in Ecuador

Latin America has struggled to control the transmission of COVID-19. Comparison of excess death (ED) rates during the pandemic reveals that Ecuador is among the highest impacted countries. In this analysis, we update our previous findings with the most complete all-cause mortality records available for 2020, disaggregated by sex, age, ethnicity and geography. Our study shows that in 2020, Ecuador had a 64% ED rate (95% CI 63% to 65%) or 64% more deaths than expected. Men had a higher ED rate, 75% (95% CI 73% to 76%), than women’s 51% (95% CI 49% to 52%), and this pattern of higher EDs for men than women held for most age groups. The only exception was the 20–29 age group, where women had 19% more deaths, compared to 10% more deaths for men, but that difference is not statistically significant. The analysis provides striking evidence of the lack of COVID-19 diagnostic testing in Ecuador: the confirmed COVID-19 deaths in 2020 accounted for only 21% of total EDs. Our significant finding is that indigenous populations, who typically account for about 5% of the deaths, show almost four times the ED rate of the majority mestizo group. Indigenous women in each age group have higher ED rates than the general population and, in ages between 20 and 49 years, they have higher ED rates than indigenous men. Indigenous women in the age group 20–29 years had an ED rate of 141%, which is commensurate to the ED rate of indigenous women older than 40 years.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Higher education responses to COVID-19 in the United States: Evidence for the impacts of university policy

With a dataset of testing and case counts from over 1,400 institutions of higher education (IHEs) in the United States, we analyze the number of infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 in the counties surrounding these IHEs during the Fall 2020 semester (August to December, 2020). We find that counties with IHEs that remained primarily online experienced fewer cases and deaths during the Fall 2020 semester; whereas before and after the semester, these two groups had almost identical COVID-19 incidence. Additionally, we see fewer cases and deaths in counties with IHEs that reported conducting any on-campus testing compared to those that reported none. To perform these two comparisons, we used a matching procedure designed to create well-balanced groups of counties that are aligned as much as possible along age, race, income, population, and urban/rural categories—demographic variables that have been shown to be correlated with COVID-19 outcomes. We conclude with a case study of IHEs in Massachusetts—a state with especially high detail in our dataset—which further highlights the importance of IHE-affiliated testing for the broader community. The results in this work suggest that campus testing can itself be thought of as a mitigation policy and that allocating additional resources to IHEs to support efforts to regularly test students and staff would be beneficial to mitigating the spread of COVID-19 in a pre-vaccine environment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi-dimensional resilience: A quantitative exploration of disease outcomes and economic, political, and social resilience to the COVID-19 pandemic in six countries

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted a need for better understanding of countries’ vulnerability and resilience to not only pandemics but also disasters, climate change, and other systemic shocks. A comprehensive characterization of vulnerability can inform efforts to improve infrastructure and guide disaster response in the future. In this paper, we propose a data-driven framework for studying countries’ vulnerability and resilience to incident disasters across multiple dimensions of society. To illustrate this methodology, we leverage the rich data landscape surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic to characterize observed resilience for several countries (USA, Brazil, India, Sweden, New Zealand, and Israel) as measured by pandemic impacts across a variety of social, economic, and political domains. We also assess how observed responses and outcomes (i.e., resilience) of the COVID-19 pandemic are associated with pre-pandemic characteristics or vulnerabilities, including (1) prior risk for adverse pandemic outcomes due to population density and age and (2) the systems in place prior to the pandemic that may impact the ability to respond to the crisis, including health infrastructure and economic capacity. Our work demonstrates the importance of viewing vulnerability and resilience in a multi-dimensional way, where a country’s resources and outcomes related to vulnerability and resilience can differ dramatically across economic, political, and social domains. This work also highlights key gaps in our current understanding about vulnerability and resilience and a need for data-driven, context-specific assessments of disaster vulnerability in the future.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Novel use of Direct Simulation Monte-Carlo to Model Dynamics of COVID-19 Pandemic Spread

In this report, we evaluate a novel method for modeling the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. In this new approach we leverage methods and algorithms developed for fully-kinetic plasma physics simulations using Particle-In-Cell (PIC) Direct Simulation Monte-Carlo (DSMC) models. This approach then leverages Sandia-unique simulation capabilities, and High-Performance Computer (HPC) resources and expertise in particle-particle interactions using stochastic processes. Our hypothesis is that this approach would provide a more efficient platform with assumptions based on physical data that would then enable the user to assess the impact of mitigation strategies and forecast different phases of infection. This work addresses key scientific questions related to the assumptions this new approach must make to model the interactions of people using algorithms typically used for modeling particle interactions in physics codes (kinetic plasma, gas dynamics). The model developed uses rational/physical inputs while also providing critical insight; the results could serve as inputs to, or alternatives for, existing models. The model work presented was developed over a four-week time frame, thus far showing promising results and many ways in which this model/approach could be improved. This work is aimed at providing a proof-of-concept for this new pandemic modeling approach, which could have an immediate impact on the COVID-19 pandemic modeling, while laying a basis to model future pandemic scenarios in a manner that is timely and efficient. Additionally, this new approach provides new visualization tools to help epidemiologists comprehend and articulate the spread of this and other pandemics as well as a more general tool to determine key parameters needed in order to better predict pandemic modeling in the future. In the report we describe our model for pandemic modeling, apply this model to COVID-19 data for New York City (NYC), assess model sensitivities to different inputs and parameters and , finally, propagate the model forward under different conditions to assess the effects of mitigation and associated timing. Finally, our approach will help understand the role of asymptomatic cases, and could be extended to elucidate the role of recovered individuals in the second round of the infection, which is currently being ignored.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Pre-Symptomatic COVID Screening

Temperature checks for fever are extensively used for preliminary COVID screenings but are ineffective during the incubation stage of infection when a person is asymptotic. Researchers at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control concluded that approximately 75% of passengers infected with COVID-19 and traveling from affected Chinese cities would not be detected by early screening. Core body temperature is normally kept within a narrow range and has the smallest relative standard deviation of all vital signs. Heat in the body is prioritized around internal organs at the expense of the periphery by controlling blood flow. In fact, blood flow to the skin may vary by a factor of 100 depending on thermal conditions. This adaptation causes rapid temperature fluctuations in different skin regions from changes in cardiac output, metabolism, and likely cytokine diffusion during inflammation that would not be seen in average core body temperature. Current IR and thermal scanners used for temperature checks are not necessarily reflective of core body temperatures and require cautious interpretation as they frequently result in false positive and false negative diagnosis. Hand held thermometers measure average skin temperatures and can get readings that differ from core body temperature by as much as 7°. Rather than focusing on a core body temperature threshold assessment we believe that variability of temperature patterns using a novel wearable transdermal microneedle sensor will be more sensitive to infections in the incubation stage and propose to develop a wearable transdermal temperature sensor using established Sandia microneedle technology for pre-symptomatic COVID screening that can additionally be used to monitor disease progression at later stages.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Online Interactive Platform for COVID-19 Literature Visual Analytics: Platform Development Study

Background Papers on COVID-19 are being published at a high rate and concern many different topics. Innovative tools are needed to aid researchers to find patterns in this vast amount of literature to identify subsets of interest in an automated fashion. Objective We present a new online software resource with a friendly user interface that allows users to query and interact with visual representations of relationships between publications. Methods We publicly released an application called PLATIPUS (Publication Literature Analysis and Text Interaction Platform for User Studies) that allows researchers to interact with literature supplied by COVIDScholar via a visual analytics platform. This tool contains standard filtering capabilities based on authors, journals, high-level categories, and various research-specific details via natural language processing and dozens of customizable visualizations that dynamically update from a researcher’s query. Results PLATIPUS is available online and currently links to over 100,000 publications and is still growing. This application has the potential to transform how COVID-19 researchers use public literature to enable their research. Conclusions The PLATIPUS application provides the end user with a variety of ways to search, filter, and visualize over 100,00 COVID-19 publications.</:p>

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Resilience Lessons From the Southeast United States Woody Pellet Supply Chain Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic†

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) instigated a pandemic that impacted economies, employment, and shipping worldwide. This paper reviews how one international supply chain performed and identifies lessons that may be helpful to improve future resilience. Economic and employment data through November 2020 are used to review the effects of COVID-19 on operations of the bioenergy supply chain in the southeastern United States (SE United States) that utilizes wood fiber to fabricate pellets. Conditions associated with the production of pellets in the SE United States changed with the outbreak of COVID-19. Federal and state government programs and classification of workers in this sector as “essential” during the pandemic helped maintain the woody pellet supply chain and other industries during a period of general shut down in 2020. The availability of personal protective equipment, long-term supply contracts, and established safety cultures are among the factors that enhance supply chain resilience while limited availability of skilled workers, inadequate stakeholder engagement, and dependence on external policies are among factors that reduce resilience. The analysis concludes with recommendations for the SE pellet supply chain, and other biomass supply chains, to improve their resilience to future disturbances. When best practices are implemented, SE United States biomass offers opportunities to contribute to post-pandemic economic recovery while incentivizing better forest resource management.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

COVID-19 trends at the University of Tennessee: predictive insights from raw sewage SARS-CoV-2 detection and evaluation and PMMoV as an indicator for human waste

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has become a valuable tool for monitoring the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 on university campuses. However, concerns about effectiveness of raw sewage as a COVID-19 early warning system still exist, and it’s not clear how useful normalization by simultaneous comparison of Pepper Mild Mottle Virus (PMMoV) is in addressing variations resulting from fecal discharge dilution. This study aims to contribute insights into these aspects by conducting an academic-year field trial at the student residences on the University of Tennessee, Knoxville campus, raw sewage. This was done to investigate the correlations between SARS-CoV-2 RNA load, both with and without PMMoV normalization, and various parameters, including active COVID-19 cases, self-isolations, and their combination among all student residents. Significant positive correlations between SARS-CoV-2 RNA load a week prior, during the monitoring week, and the subsequent week with active cases. Despite these correlations, normalization by PMMoV does not enhance these associations. These findings suggest the potential utility of SARS-CoV-2 RNA load as an early warning indicator and provide valuable insights into the application and limitations of WBE for COVID-19 surveillance specifically within the context of raw sewage on university campuses.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗