Search NASASearch

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Capacity Expansion Model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6

Investigating the effects of cooperative transmission expansion planning on grid performance during heat waves with varying spatial scales

There is growing recognition of the advantages of interregional transmission capacity to decarbonize electricity grids. A less explored benefit is potential performance improvements during extreme weather events. This study examines the impacts of cooperative transmission expansion planning using an advanced modeling chain to simulate power grid operations of the United States Western Interconnection in 2019 and 2059 under different levels of collaboration between transmission planning regions. Two historical heat waves in 2019 with varying geographical coverage are replayed under future climate change in 2059 to assess the transmission cooperation benefits during grid stress. The results show that cooperative transmission planning yields the best outcomes in terms of reducing wholesale electricity prices and minimizing energy outages both for the whole interconnection and individual transmission planning regions. Compared to individual planning, cooperative planning reduces wholesale electricity prices by 64.3 % and interconnection-wide total costs (transmission investments + grid operations) by 34.6 % in 2059. It also helps decrease greenhouse gas emissions by increasing renewable energy utilization. However, the benefits of cooperation diminish during the widespread heat wave when all regions face extreme electricity demand due to higher space cooling needs. Despite this, cooperative transmission planning remains advantageous, particularly for California Independent System Operator with significant diurnal solar generation capacity. This study suggests that cooperation in transmission planning is crucial for reducing costs and increasing reliability both during normal periods and extreme weather events. It highlights the importance of optimizing the strategic investments to mitigate challenges posed by wider-scale extreme weather events of the future.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Mechanical and thermal properties of planetologically important ices

Two squences of ice composition were proposed for the icy satellites: a dense nebula model and a solar nebula model. Careful modeling of the structure, composition, and thermal history of satellites composed of these various ices requires quantitative information on the density, compressibility, thermal expansion, heat capacity, and thermal conductivity. Equations of state were fitted to the density data of the molecular ices. The unusual thermal and mechanical properties of the molecular and binary ices suggest a larger range of phenomena than previously anticipated, sufficiently complex perhaps to account for many of the unusual geologic phenomena found on the icy satellites.

Croft, Steven K.

A theoretical model for sheath dynamics in the two-plasma mode of a cylindrical filament discharge

We present a refined understanding of cylindrical plasma-facing emitter cathodes by examining the limitations of the conventional space charge limited model, which overlooks ion trapping dynamics within the virtual cathode. While conventional theory distinguishes between temperature-limited and space charge limited regimes based on electron current constraints, our findings reveal that trapped ions can form a quasi-neutral “second plasma,” expanding upstream and interacting with the primary plasma. In cylindrical and other non-planar geometries, an expanding trapped-ions layer produces current enhancement by converting more of the emitted electron flux to passing flux. The current enhancement leads to a complex coupling between the trapped-ions plasma and upstream plasma through ionizing collisions in the upstream region and charge exchange collisions in the virtual cathode. The coupling results in mutual density enhancement and at the same time, antagonistic expansion dynamics between the two plasma layers. The process is understood using a new “aid-compete” model. Numerical solutions, validated against simulations, reveal the model's capacity to predict system evolution and complex discharge behaviors, albeit with qualitative approximations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Property Measurements of LiF-NaF-KF Molten Salts Doped with Corrosion Products and Oxygen

Measurements of thermophysical properties of molten salts are needed for modeling and simulation activities that support the development of molten salt reactor (MSR) technologies. Properties of interest including transition temperatures, phase behavior, heat capacity, density, volumetric thermal expansion, surface tension, viscosity, thermal diffusivity, thermal conductivity, and vapor pressure are being performed at Argonne. Results of these property measurements are suitable for use in evaluating reactor performance during startup and the early operating life of the reactor. Ingressions of oxygen and moisture into the fuel salt are expected to occur at different times during the operating life of the reactor due to system leaks, maintenance, and refueling activities. The presence of these environmental contaminants induces corrosion of structural materials. The introduction of corrosion-derived species, oxygen and moisture is expected to affect the physical and chemical properties of the salt and operation of the reactor. Previous work performed at Argonne evaluated the effects of fission product dopants on the thermal properties of eutectic LiF-NaF-KF (FLiNaK). Properties of FLiNaK are commonly used to represent those of fluoride-bearing fuel salts. Metallic corrosion products such as chromium and nickel ions together with dissolved oxygen are expected to affect system redox differently than the accumulation of fission products. Work summarized in this report was performed to measure the effects of corrosion products and dissolved oxygen on the phase transitions, and specific heat capacity of FLiNaK. Thermophysical property measurements were made using four salts that were prepared by doping aliquots of a eutectic mixture of FLiNaK with surrogate corrosion products. Controlled additions of CrF 3 and NiF 2 were used as surrogates for corrosion product contamination anticipated during extended reactor operations in which fuel salt is in contact with steel reactor components. Controlled additions of UF 4 from two sources containing known amounts of UO 2 at different concentrations were used to represent oxygen contamination. The phase transitions and specific heat capacities of the four salts were measured by using differential scanning calorimetry. Measurements were made at temperatures spanning the range of 500−900 °C, which is the expected operating range of MSRs. Measured property values were compared to values measured previously with eutectic FLiNaK without dopants. Differences between property values measured for the doped and non-doped salts were compared with the uncertainties of the measurements to determine the significance of the effect of corrosion products and oxygen on salt properties.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

VIC-Global Parameter Dataset Sensitivity with the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model: Evaluating the importance of dynamic land surface parameters when using the VIC-Global parameter dataset

Accurate prediction of runoff is essential to water resources management, flood risk assessment, and ecosystem protection. However, many hydrological models still have relatively substantial limitations when representing the influence of land use and land cover (LULC) on runoff generation and routing. Changes in LULC, such as deforestation, urban expansion, agricultural intensification, and wetland loss, have been shown to alter the water balance at the land surface through fundamental hydrologic processes (e.g., interception, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and soil storage). However, it remains an open question what the exact magnitude and timing of these impacts are for the spatial and temporal scales commonly used in engineering applications. In this analysis we focus on one aspect of recent LULC change for assessing human impacts, which is urbanization. Specifically we seek to determine the impacts of urbanization on the magnitude and timing of surface runoff and baseflow in HUC-12 basins in Clark County, Nevada which has experienced rapid urbanization. We use the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model with a widely used off-the-shelf dataset of land surface parameters, VIC-Global, both of which have been commonly used in the past for water and energy balance modeling for large scale hydrologic studies. We examine two scenarios where the first scenario removes all urbanized land cover and parameterizes those areas of the basins as barren or open shrubland. The second scenario tests the opposite case where all areas of the basins are classified as urban regardless of their present classification. The results from the VIC model show there is a low sensitivity for daily surface runoff between scenarios. The daily baseflow values indicate similar low sensitivity to the classification change during specific periods, but then have substantial differences during other period when large precipitation events are occurring. This is likely due to the assumed parameter values for the urban land cover classification made by the VIC-Global dataset. Using a static land cover parameterization is reasonable for large domain hydrology models that are being used for near-term planning horizons (<30 years). However, longer planning horizons where feedbacks between the atmosphere and land surface are important, especially in transient climate situations, considerations for how to update land surface parameters should be incorporated.

42 ENGINEERING

Identifying Robust Decarbonization Pathways for the Western U.S. Electric Power System Under Deep Climate Uncertainty

Climate change threatens the resource adequacy of future power systems. Existing research and practice lack frameworks for identifying decarbonization pathways that are robust to climate-related uncertainty. We create such an analytical framework, then use it to assess the robustness of alternative pathways to achieving 60% emissions reductions from 2022 levels by 2040 for the Western U.S. power system. Our framework integrates power system planning and resource adequacy models with 100 climate realizations from a large climate ensemble. Climate realizations drive electricity demand; thermal plant availability; and wind, solar, and hydropower generation. Among five initial decarbonization pathways, all exhibit modest to significant resource adequacy failures under climate realizations in 2040, but certain pathways experience significantly less resource adequacy failures at little additional cost relative to other pathways. By identifying and planning for an extreme climate realization that drives the largest resource adequacy failures across our pathways, we produce a new decarbonization pathway that has no resource adequacy failures under any climate realizations. This new pathway is roughly 5% more expensive than other pathways due to greater capacity investment, and shifts investment from wind to solar and natural gas generators. Our analysis suggests modest increases in investment costs can add significant robustness against climate change in decarbonizing power systems. Our framework can help power system planners adapt to climate change by stress testing future plans to potential climate realizations, and offers a unique bridge between energy system and climate modeling.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Molecular Dynamics of ULTEM 9085 for 3D Manufacturing: Spectra, Thermodynamic Properties, and Shear Viscosity.

We present results of a molecular dynamic analysis of welding at the polymer-polymer interface. The analysis is performed for polyetherimide/ polycarbonate polymer blends. The work is motivated by the applications to 3D manufacturing in space. In the first part of the report, we discuss bulk and spectral characteristics of the amorphous polymer blends. The vibrational and infra-red spectra obtained using auto-correlation functions calculations in molecular dynamics are compared with the experimental spectra. The mechanical and thermal properties of the samples including heat capacity, bulk modulus, and thermal expansion coefficients are estimated and compared with experimental values. In the second part of the report, we discuss the result of molecular dynamical modeling of shear viscosity in a fully atomistic model of amorphous polymer blends with flat interface. The key result of the research is the demonstration of shear thinning behavior of the shear viscosity as a function of shear rate which is in good agreement with experimental data.

Luchinsky, Dmitry G.

Stresses, strains, and surface pressures in the lung caused by its weight.

In an effort to understand how the lung is deformed by its own weight, we have analyzed the distribution of regional expansion, stresses, and surface pressures in a theoretical elastic lung-shaped model using the technique of finite elements. In the upright position, the parenchyma was most expanded at the apex and least at the base. Stresses in both the vertical and lateral directions were maximal at the apex. As the lung was inflated from very low volumes to total lung capacity, parenchymal expansion and stress at the apex first decreased, then increased. This behavior can be explained by the increasing rigidity of the expanded lung which enabled it to resist distortion by its own weight. At functional residual capacity, the stress at the apex was near its minimum. The differences in intrapleural pressure down the lung were volume dependent, increasing at very low volumes. In the inverted lung, the regional differences in stress, strain, and surface pressures were less marked because of the shape of the chest.

West, J. B.

Assessment of uranium nitride interatomic potentials

Uranium mononitride (UN) is a promising nuclear fuel due to its high fissile density, high thermal conductivity, and suitability for reprocessing. In this study, two uranium nitride interatomic potentials are assessed: Tseplyaev and Starikov's angular-dependent potential and Kocevski et al.'s embedded atom model potential. Predictions of the thermophysical and elastic properties of UN, UN 2 , and α- and β-U 2 N 3 computed using both potentials are assessed and compared to available experimental data. Notably, the Tseplyaev potential performs better with the energetic aspects of UN, e.g., specific heat capacity and point defect formation energies, whereas the Kocevski potential performs better with the structural aspects of UN, e.g., thermal expansion as well as with the elastic properties. The reasons why the Kocevski potential underestimates the UN specific heat are explained by examining the UN phonon properties modeled using both potentials. The Kocevski potential shows better identification of the mechanical stability ranges of UN, UN 2 , and α- and β-U 2 N 3 , reasonably predicting the melting point of UN and predicting stable structures for UN 2 and α- and β-U 2 N 3 . On the other hand, the Tseplyaev potential predicts a premature phase change of both UN and UN 2 and cannot stabilize α- nor β-U 2 N 3 . However, the Kocevski potential cannot predict a stable α-U phase and is thus not suitable for the calculation of formation energies for non-stoichiometric point defects.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Technology Impact and Resource Assessment of Existing and Planned U.S. Biofuel Production: Life Cycle Water Consumption, Water Stress, Land Use, and Criteria Air Pollutants

Biofuels have the potential to strengthen the U.S. energy supply, enhance energy security, and promote economic development. As the United States continues to expand biofuel production, quantifying resource requirements and location-specific constraints is crucial for planning, siting, and technology development to support long-term viability. Accordingly, this work assesses the life cycle resource consumption (water consumption, and land use), water stress and criteria air pollutants associated with expanded U.S. biofuel production over the 2020–2035 period, based on producers’ plans. We perform a bottom-up technology impact assessment and resource assessment by integrating facility-level production statistics with Argonne’s Research and Development (R&D) GREET model and county-level water-stress characterization factors from Available Water Remaining for the United States (AWARE-US) model. Results suggest that by 2035, biofuels could meaningfully contribute to U.S. energy demand, driven primarily by first-generation and waste-based feedstocks with plans for substantial capacity expansion, although cellulosic and e-fuel technologies remain limited. However, growth must be managed to minimize impacts on water resources and land use. These impacts vary by fuel type and facility location, specifically, projected expansion increases water consumption and can elevate water-stress impacts in certain regions like Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Idaho, California and North Texas. Direct land use also increases overall, particularly for first-generation feedstocks such as corn and soybeans. These findings underscore the need for continued technological improvements and innovative strategies to manage resource demands as the industry scales and to support complementary deployment within the evolving U.S. energy system.

09 BIOMASS FUELS

Learning from Arctic Microgrids: Cost and Resiliency Projections for Renewable Energy Expansion with Hydrogen and Battery Storage

Electricity in rural Alaska is provided by more than 200 standalone microgrid systems powered predominantly by diesel generators. Incorporating renewable energy generation and storage to these systems can reduce their reliance on costly imported fuel and improve sustainability; however, uncertainty remains about optimal grid architectures to minimize cost, including how and when to incorporate long-duration energy storage. This study implements a novel, multi-pronged approach to assess the techno-economic feasibility of future energy pathways in the community of Kotzebue, which has already successfully deployed solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, and battery storage systems. Using real community load, resource, and generation data, we develop a series of comparison models using the HOMER Pro software tool to evaluate microgrid architectures to meet over 90% of the annual community electricity demand with renewable generation, considering both battery and hydrogen energy storage. We find that near-term planned capacity expansions in the community could enable over 50% renewable generation and reduce the total cost of energy. Additional build-outs to reach 75% renewable generation are shown to be competitive with current costs, but further capacity expansion is not currently economical. We additionally include a cost sensitivity analysis and a storage capacity sizing assessment that suggest hydrogen storage may be economically viable if battery costs increase, but large-scale seasonal storage via hydrogen is currently unlikely to be cost-effective nor practical for the region considered. While these findings are based on data and community priorities in Kotzebue, we expect this approach to be relevant to many communities in the Arctic and Sub-Arctic regions working to improve energy reliability, sustainability, and security.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

Modeling Reversible Volume Change in Automotive Battery Cells with Porous Silicon Oxide-Graphite Composite Anodes

Automotive battery manufacturers are working to improve the individual cell and overall pack design by increasing durability, performance, and range, while reducing cost, and active material volume change is a key aspect that needs to be considered during this design process. Recently, silicon oxide-graphite composite anodes are being explored to increase total anode capacity while maintaining a tolerable amount of cell level reversible volume expansion due to the relatively lower reversible volume change of the silicon oxide compared to pure battery grade or metallurgical grade silicon. To predict the blended anode response and contribution to the overall cell volume change, we integrated the mechanical behavior of the individual active materials with the multi-species, multi-reaction model to predict the state-of-lithiation of the active materials in the cell at a given potential. The resulting simulations illustrate the tradeoff in volume change between the silicon oxide and the graphite during cell operation. This type of modeling approach will allow designers to virtually consider the impact of cell level and pack level design changes on overall system mechanical performance for automotive and grid storage applications, namely that relatively small addition of silicon containing materials can drive a significant increase in the volume change at the cell level, as demonstrated by the 5 wt% addition of silicon oxide accounting for half of the overall volume change in the cell.

Garrick, Taylor R. (ORCID:0000000322518129)

Fluid and electrolyte homeostasis in space - A primate model to look at mechanisms

To elucidate the physiological mechanisms involved in the cardiovascular and renal responses to spaceflight, a ground-based primate model has been developed which uses lower body positive pressure (LBPP) to simulate the chronic central vascular expansion associated with weightlessnes. Four male squirrel monkeys with chronically implanted arterial and venous catheters and the capacity for continuous urine collection were subjected to LBPP for 4 days. Onset of LBPP resulted in an immediate diuresis, natriuresis and kaliuresis and a significant fall in plasma aldosterone and potassium levels. By day 2 the level of natriuresis had decreased by half, while potassium excretion and plasma aldosterone values had returned to control levels despite the persistence of a significantly reduced plasma potassium concentration. It is concluded that the low plasma potassium level appears not to stimulate a compensatory fall in plasma aldosterone because of the simultaneous presence of body volume contraction acting to raise aldosterone levels.

Moore-Ede, M. C.

Machine Learning Approaches for Rare-Earth Silicate Environmental Barrier Coating Thermochemical and Thermomechanical Property Predictions

Environmental barrier coatings (EBCs) are a necessary enabling technology for the transition from superalloys to silicon carbide (SiC) ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) in gas turbine engines for increased efficiency and decreased fuel costs. SiC-based CMCs are prone to oxidation-based degradation in the engine hot section, and rare-earth (RE) silicates are promising candidates for EBCs due to their close thermal expansion match to the composite substrate and oxidation resistance. However, the design of EBCs is hindered by the large chemical space of candidate materials and the difficulty in obtaining material properties for engineering optimization. This is especially difficult as research continues into mixed-cation or “high-entropy” RE silicates. First-principles computational methods such as density functional theory (DFT) are highly effective at calculating material properties to guide coating design but are limited by their computational cost. Atomistic simulations have the potential to both accelerate property calculations and expand the properties able to be calculated due to their lower computational compared to DFT. However, they require interatomic potentials (IAPs) specific to the material system of interest, and, to our knowledge, there are no suitable IAPs for RE silicates. Machine learning (ML) is a promising technique to accelerate material property predictions indirectly by generating IAPs for atomistic simulations or via direct prediction. In this work, we present two ML approaches to accelerate the calculation of RE silicate properties relevant to EBC design: 1) a ML-derived interatomic potential (IAP) for atomistic simulations of yttrium disilicate (Y2Si2O7) from DFT training data, and 2) a neural network (NN) model to directly predict thermochemical properties of RE silicates and oxides directly from easily obtainable unit cell parameters. Classical MD simulations using the IAP yield lattice properties and bond lengths in good agreement with both DFT and experimental results from x-ray diffraction. Thermodynamic properties calculated using the finite-displacement phonon method and quasi-harmonic approximation were orders of magnitude faster than DFT with good agreement to the DFT results. The IAP was also used to calculate properties such as coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) that require large simulation supercells and are therefore difficult with DFT. The IAP correctly predicted the anisotropic nature of the CTE in three different phases of Y2Si2O7. The NN model predicts constant pressure heat capacity, Cp, orders of magnitude faster than DFT calculations, which can enable its use as a surrogate model for multiscale simulations. The two methods presented in this work demonstrate the utility of ML for accelerating the prediction of RE silicate properties, which can in turn accelerate EBC design and optimization.

machine learning

Observations of Methane and Ethylene Diffusion Flames Stabilized Around a Blowing Porous Sphere Under Microgravity Conditions

This paper presents the experimental and theoretical results for expanding methane and ethylene diffusion flames in microgravity. A small porous sphere made from a low-density and low-heat-capacity insulating material was used to uniformly supply fuel at a constant rate to the expanding diffusion flame. A theoretical model which includes soot and gas radiation is formulated but only the problem pertaining to the transient expansion of the flame is solved by assuming constant pressure infinitely fast one-step ideal gas reaction and unity Lewis number. This is a first step toward quantifying the effect of soot and gas radiation on these flames. The theoretically calculated expansion rate is in good agreement with the experimental results. Both experimental and theoretical results show that as the flame radius increases, the flame expansion process becomes diffusion controlled and the flame radius grows as gamma t. Theoretical calculations also show that for a constant fuel mass injection rate a quasi-steady state is developed in the region surrounded by the flame and the mass flow rate at any location inside this region equals the mass injection rate.

Atreya, Arvind

The role of moisture in MgCl 2 salt: A multiscale approach to TES performance

This study presents a comprehensive multiscale analysis to evaluate the influence of moisture on the thermal performance of thermal energy storage systems using magnesium chloride (MgCl 2 ) as the phase-changing material. The system uses graphite foam with 90% relative density to enhance thermal conductivity. The analysis includes thermal conductivity calculations and specific heat capacity for different hydrate phases of MgCl 2 : Anhydrous, Mono, Di, Tetra, and Hexa. These properties were evaluated for the first time using the phonon density of states from Density Functional Theory simulations. Results showed that thermal conductivity decreased, while specific heat capacity increased by a factor of two as the phase changed from anhydrous to hexahydrate. Meso-scale models were created to account for the anisotropy of graphite foam and property variations of the MgCl 2 hydrate phases. Asymptotic Expansion homogenization simulations determined the anisotropic thermal conductivity for all phases. This unique methodology improved simulation accuracy, which matched experimental data for anhydrous MgCl 2 . A parametric study examined various operating conditions and their effect on TES performance. It revealed that higher charging temperatures did not enhance exergy efficiency, but increased discharge mass flow rates improved it due to better heat transfer. Thermal performance evaluated by the exergy efficiency remained consistent across hydrate systems under the tested conditions. Furthermore, the study suggests that this uniformity is linked to missing key data, particularly latent heat and melting point for different hydrates. Overall, it highlights the importance of multiscale effects and accurate material properties in designing and optimizing TES systems.

Molten salt degradation

Global Carbon Cycle and Climate Feedbacks in the NASA GISS ModelE2.1

We present results from the NASA GISS ModelE2.1‐G‐CC Earth System Model with coupled climate‐carbon cycle simulations that were submitted to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) Coupled Climate‐Carbon Cycle MIP (C4MIP). Atmospheric CO2 concentration and carbon budgets for the land and ocean in the historical simulations were generally consistent with observations. Low simulated atmospheric CO2 concentrations during 1850‐1950 were due to excess uptake from prescribed land cover change, which erroneously replaced arid shrublands with higher biomass crops, and assumed high 2004 LAI values in vegetated lands throughout the historical simulation. At the end of the historical period, slightly higher simulated CO2 than observed resulted from the land being an insufficient net carbon sink, despite the net effect of CO2 fertilization and warming‐induced increases to leaf photosynthetic capacity. The global ocean carbon uptake agreed well with the observations with the largest discrepancies in the low latitudes. Future climate projection at 2091‐2100 agreed with CMIP5 models in the northward shift, of temperate deciduous forest climate and expansion across Eurasia along 60 °N latitude, and dramatic regional biome shifts from drying and warming in continental Europe. Carbon feedback parameters were largely similar to the CMIP5 model ensemble. For our model, the variation of land feedback parameters within the uncertainty arises from the fertilization feedback being less sensitive due to lack of increased vegetation growth, and the comparably more negative ocean carbon‐climate feedback is due to the large slowdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation.

Carbon cycle