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Above-ground net primary productivity in regenerating seasonally dry tropical forest: Contributions of rainfall, forest age and soil

Identifying factors controlling forest productivity is critical to understanding forest-climate change feedbacks, modelling vegetation dynamics and carbon finance schemes. However, little research has focused on productivity in regenerating tropical forests which are expanding in their fraction of global area have an order of magnitude larger carbon uptake rates relative to older forest. Here We examined above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP) and its components (wood production and litterfall) over 10 years in forest plots that vary in successional age, soil characteristics and species composition using band dendrometers and litterfall traps in regenerating seasonally dry tropical forests in northwestern Costa Rica. We show that the components of ANPP are differentially driven by age and annual rainfall and that local soil variation is important. Total ANPP was explained by a combination of age, annual rainfall and soil variation. Wood production comprised 35% of ANPP on average across sites and years, and was explained by annual rainfall but not forest age. Conversely, litterfall increased with forest age and soil fertility yet was not affected by annual rainfall. In this region, edaphic variability is highly correlated with plant community composition. Thus, variation in ecosystem processes explained by soil may also be partially explained by species composition. These results suggest that future changes in annual rainfall can alter the secondary forest carbon sink, but this effect will be buffered by the litterfall flux which varies little among years. In determining the long-term strength of the secondary forest carbon sink, both rainfall and forest age will be critical variables to track. We also conclude that detailed understanding of local site variation in soils and plant community may be required to accurately predict the impact of changing rainfall on forest carbon uptake. Synthesis. We show that in seasonally dry tropical forest, annual rainfall has a positive relationship with the growth of above-ground woody tissues of trees and that droughts lead to significant reductions in above-ground productivity. These results provide evidence for climate change—carbon cycle feedbacks in the seasonal tropics and highlight the value of longitudinal data on forest regeneration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Maps of growing season gross primary production and net ecosystem exchange for Council Road Mile Marker 71, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, [2017-2023]

This data archive is in support of the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) publication "Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape", by Murphy et al. (2025a). Murphy et al. (2025a) evaluated whether incorporating observed Arctic vegetation heterogeneity into ELM, the land model of the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), improved simulations of tundra carbon cycling. The associated model archive can be found at Murphy et al. (2025b). The study focused on the spatial patterns and net landscape-level growing season productivity and carbon uptake. As part of this evaluation, observationally derived maps of average growing season (June–August) net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary production (GPP) were developed for the same domain. These maps, which form the dataset described here, integrate eddy covariance flux tower, remote sensing, and vegetation community data to provide spatially explicit benchmarks for model evaluation. The maps provide spatially explicit estimates of average growing season NEE and GPP across 13 tundra vegetation communities within the study domain. By combining flux tower observations with Airborne Visible-Infrared Imaging Spectrometer-Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) hyperspectral imagery and drone-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), these maps capture the heterogeneity of carbon fluxes associated with different Arctic vegetation types. While they represent average seasonal conditions rather than interannual variability, the maps provide a unique dataset for evaluating model performance, comparing vegetation community contributions to landscape-scale carbon cycling, and supporting regional analyses of Arctic carbon dynamics. This data archive contains 5 m resolution maps of vegetation communities, vegetation community average growing season GPP, and vegetation community average growing season NEE (three *.tif files), a User’s Guide (*pdf file), and Table 1 of the User’s Guide displaying vegetation community coverage and average growing season NEE and GPP values (*.csv file).

Murphy, Bailey [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000203995221)↗

A Quantum Annealing Computer Team Addresses Climate Change Predictability

The near confluence of the successful launch of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory2 on July 2, 2014 and the acceptance on August 20, 2015 by Google, NASA Ames Research Center and USRA of a 1152 qubit D-Wave 2X Quantum Annealing Computer (QAC), offered an exceptional opportunity to explore the potential of this technology to address the scientific prediction of global annual carbon uptake by land surface processes. At UMBC,we have collected and processed 20 months of global Level 2 light CO2 data as well as fluorescence data. In addition we have collected ARM data at 2sites in the US and Ameriflux data at more than 20 stations. J. Dorband has developed and implemented a multi-hidden layer Boltzmann Machine (BM) algorithm on the QAC. Employing the BM, we are calculating CO2 fluxes by training collocated OCO-2 level 2 CO2 data with ARM ground station tower data to infer to infer measured CO2 flux data. We generate CO2 fluxes with a regression analysis using these BM derived weights on the level 2 CO2 data for three Ameriflux sites distinct from the ARM stations. P. Gentine has negotiated for the access of K34 Ameriflux data in the Amazon and is applying a neural net to infer the CO2 fluxes. N. Talik validated the accuracy of the BM performance on the QAC against a restricted BM implementation on the IBM Softlayer Cloud with the Nvidia co-processors utilizing the same data sets. G. Nearing and K. Harrison have extended the GSFC LIS model with the NCAR Noah photosynthetic parameterization and have run a 10 year global prediction of the net ecosystem exchange. C. Pellisier is preparing a BM implementation of the Kalman filter data assimilation of CO2 fluxes. At UMBC, R. Prouty is conducting OSSE experiments with the LISNoah model on the IBM iDataPlex to simulate the impact of CO2 fluxes to improve the prediction of global annual carbon uptake. J. LeMoigne and D. Simpson have developed a neural net image registration system that will be used for MODIS ENVI and will be converted to a BM algorithm implementation on the QAC. The first integer adder has been implemented on the D-Wave 2X by A. Shehab that will perform HAAR wavelets for image compression of MODIS scenes. Finally, based on the next generations of QACs, we are preparing a 5-year performance road map on the scalability of the current QAC algorithms.

Science Data Processing↗

Radiocarbon analysis as a method for verifying atmospheric CO 2 uptake during carbon mineralization

Sequestration of atmospheric CO 2 is required to constrain the warming of Earth’s climate. Carbon mineralization refers to the precipitation of carbonate minerals by reaction of CO 2 and Mg- and Ca-rich rocks; if the source of the CO 2 is atmospheric and the precipitated carbonate is protected from subsequent dissolution, this process at sufficient scale may be able to reliably draw down atmospheric greenhouse gas levels. Such reactions occur passively in ultramafic settings and previous work has demonstrated that they actively draw down local CO 2 (g) concentrations. However, a method for unambiguously attributing the sequestered carbon solid product to atmospheric sources is still lacking. Here, we test if radiocarbon can be used to verify that the carbon being incorporated into carbonate minerals during carbon mineralization is atmospheric in origin. Additionally, samples from recently exposed ultramafic sites are analyzed and the results demonstrate the utility of this technique for verifying true atmospheric carbon reduction.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Nitrogen availability and summer drought, but not N:P imbalance, drive carbon use efficiency of a Mediterranean tree-grass ecosystem

All ecosystems contain both sources and sinks for atmospheric carbon (C). A change in their balance of net and gross ecosystem carbon uptake, ecosystem-scale carbon use efficiency (CUE ECO ), is a change in their ability to buffer climate change. However, anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition is increasing N availability, potentially shifting terrestrial ecosystem stoichiometry towards phosphorus (P) limitation. Depending on how gross primary production (GPP, plants alone) and ecosystem respiration (R ECO , plants and heterotrophs) are limited by N, P or associated changes in other biogeochemical cycles, CUE ECO may change. Seasonally, CUE ECO also varies as the multiple processes that control GPP and respiration and their limitations shift in time. We worked in a Mediterranean tree-grass ecosystem (locally called ‘dehesa’) characterized by mild, wet winters and summer droughts. We examined CUE ECO from eddy covariance fluxes over 6 years under control, +N and + NP fertilized treatments on three timescales: annual, seasonal (determined by vegetation phenological phases) and 14-day aggregations. Finer aggregation allowed consideration of responses to specific patterns in vegetation activity and meteorological conditions. We predicted that CUE ECO should be increased by wetter conditions, and successively by N and NP fertilization. Milder and wetter years with proportionally longer growing seasons increased CUE ECO , as did N fertilization, regardless of whether P was added. Using a generalized additive model, whole ecosystem phenological status and water deficit indicators, which both varied with treatment, were the main determinants of 14-day differences in CUE ECO . The direction of water effects depended on the timescale considered and occurred alongside treatment-dependent water depletion. Overall, future regional trends of longer dry summers may push these systems towards lower CUE ECO .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Advancing Satellite-Constrained Modeled Air-Sea CO 2 Fluxes With a Focus on the Strength of the Southern Ocean Carbon Sink

Challenge and Motivation: The ocean plays a critical role in mitigating climate change by removing approximately a quarter of annual anthropogenic CO 2 emissions from the atmosphere. Model-based estimates point to the Southern Ocean as a key marine region, responsible for approximately 40 % of the anthropogenic carbon uptake by the global ocean. However, the contemporary strength of the Southern Ocean carbon sink has recently come into question. On the one hand, airborne-based observations of atmospheric CO 2 gradients indicate that the Southern Ocean represents a strong net sink of atmospheric CO 2 , consistent in magnitude with atmospheric inversion estimates and surface-ocean partial pressure of CO 2 (pCO 2 )-based products. On the other hand, estimates of pCO 2 based on in situ pH measurements taken by biogeochemical profiling floats yield strong wintertime outgassing fluxes that greatly reduce the Southern Ocean’s annually integrated CO 2 uptake. This uncertainty in the strength of the Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux and its role in the global carbon cycle hinders our ability to constrain global carbon fluxes, one of the major goals of NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS). Opportunity: The NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) produces near-global pCO 2 and air-sea CO 2 flux estimates that are currently included into the NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) models in support of the CMS effort to monitor global carbon fluxes. The NOBM assimilates ocean color data to improve the representation of biogeochemical fluxes and overcome spatial and temporal gaps in the space-based retrievals. Here, we propose to advance the satellite-constrained flux estimates by investigating the uncertainties in the Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux produced by the NOBM, and assess the value that remote sensing ocean color data can have in providing improved estimates of carbon fluxes in the ocean. Our proposed work includes the delivery of refined in situ float-based carbon fluxes to serve as a constraint on the model-based estimates. Taking advantage of the model’s integration of satellite ocean color data to represent multiple phytoplankton groups, we propose to deliver maps of biogenic carbon export specific to each modeled phytoplankton type and investigate the role of ecological plankton complexity in regulating marine carbon uptake and export. Goals: (a) Delivery of seasonally-adjusted float-based Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 fluxes: We will produce updated and improved float-based air-sea CO 2 fluxes that will serve as a bias-reduced float-based constraint to evaluate our model-based estimates of the NOBM. (b) Investigation of uncertainties in Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux from the NOBM: Modeled air-sea carbon fluxes will be evaluated against the updated float product as well as ship- and airborne-based data to identify uncertainties and potential model deficiencies. (c) Delivery of model-based carbon export partitioning by phytoplankton functional types (PFTs): We will produce depth-resolved maps of particulate organic export production integrated for all phytoplankton groups and allocated to each individual PFT in the model. The expected significance of this goal is to quantify the role that the functional-oriented diversity in phytoplankton groups represented in the NOBM plays in regulating air-sea CO 2 fluxes in the Southern Ocean.

Lionel A. Arteaga↗

Global patterns of terrestrial nitrogen and phosphorus limitation

Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) limitation constrains the magnitude of terrestrial carbon uptake in response to elevated carbon dioxide and climate change. However, global maps of nutrient limitation are still lacking. Here we examined global N and P limitation using the ratio of site-averaged leaf N and P resorption efficiencies of the dominant species across 171 sites. We evaluated our predictions using a global database of N- and P-limitation experiments based on nutrient additions at 106 and 53 sites, respectively. Globally, we found a shift from relative P to N limitation for both higher latitudes and precipitation seasonality and lower mean annual temperature, temperature seasonality, mean annual precipitation and soil clay fraction. Excluding cropland, urban and glacial areas, we estimate that 18% of the natural terrestrial land area is significantly limited by N, whereas 43% is relatively P limited. The remaining 39% of the natural terrestrial land area could be co-limited by N and P or weakly limited by either nutrient alone. This work provides both a new framework for testing nutrient limitation and a benchmark of N and P limitation for models to constrain predictions of the terrestrial carbon sink.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Future of the North American Carbon Cycle: Chapter - 19

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, primarily due to fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, are expected to continue to drive changes in both climate and the terrestrial and ocean carbon cycles. Over the past two-to-three decades, there has been considerable effort to understand how terrestrial and oceanic systems behave (in response to rising atmospheric CO2 and changing climate conditions), quantify the dynamics of system responses to environmental change, and project how the ocean and terrestrial carbon cycle will interact with, and influence, future atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate. In this presentation, we will summarize key findings related to projected changes to the North American carbon cycle and drivers and associated consequences of these changes, as reported in Chapter 19 of the Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-2). The findings not only capture projections of emissions from fossil fuel and changes in land cover and land use, but also highlight the decline in future carbon uptake capacity of North American carbon reservoirs and soil carbon losses from the Northern high-latitudes. Such a discussion of future carbon cycle changes is new in SOCCR-2, yet timely. It underlines the progress made since the release of the First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-1) in 2007 in identifying the vulnerability of key carbon pools and their co-evolution with changing climatic conditions. We will also discuss key knowledge gaps and outline a set of future research priorities, including both monitoring and modeling activities, that are necessary to improve projections of future changes to the North American carbon cycle and associated adaptation and resource-management decisions.

North America↗

The cryptoendolithic microbial environment in the Ross Desert of Antarctica: light in the photosynthetically active region

The vertical zonation of the Antarctic cryptoendolithic community appears to form in response to the light regime in the habitat. However, because of the structure of the habitat, the light regime is difficult to study directly. Therefore, a mathematical model of the light regime was constructed, which was used to estimate the total photon flux in different zones of the community. Maximum fluxes range from about 150 micrometers photons m-2 s-1 at the upper boundary of the community to about 0.1 micrometer photons m-2 s-1. Estimates of the annual productivity in the community indicate that the lowest zone of the community is light limited, with the maximal annual carbon uptake equivalent to less than the carbon content of one algal (Hemichloris) cell.

NASA Discipline Number 52-30↗

Quantifying Northern High Latitude Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) Using Carbonyl Sulfide (OCS)

The northern high latitude (NHL, 40°N to 90°N) is where the second peak region of gross primary productivity (GPP) other than the tropics. The summer NHL GPP is about 80% of the tropical peak, but both regions are still highly uncertain. Carbonyl sulfide (OCS) provides an important proxy for photosynthetic carbon uptake. Here we optimize the OCS plant uptake fluxes across the NHL by fitting atmospheric concentration simulation with the GEOS-CHEM global transport model to the aircraft profiles acquired over Alaska during NASA's Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (2012–2015). We use the empirical biome-specific linear relationship between OCS plant uptake flux and GPP to derive the six plant uptake OCS fluxes from different GPP data. Such GPP-based fluxes are used to drive the concentration simulations. We evaluate the simulations against the independent observations at two ground sites of Alaska. The optimized OCS fluxes suggest the NHL plant uptake OCS flux of -247 Gg S year -1 , about 25% stronger than the ensemble mean of the six GPP-based OCS fluxes. GPP-based OCS fluxes systematically underestimate the peak growing season across the NHL, while a subset of models predict early start of season in Alaska, consistent with previous studies of net ecosystem exchange. The OCS optimized GPP of 34 PgC yr -1 for NHL is also about 25% more than the ensembles mean from six GPP data. Further work is needed to fully understand the environmental and biotic drivers and quantify their rate of photosynthetic carbon uptake in Arctic ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Linking groundwater variability to ecosystem carbon and water use efficiencies across India

Carbon use efficiency (CUE) and water use efficiency (WUE) are important indicators of ecosystem health, reflecting the balance between carbon uptake and allocation, and the relationship between carbon assimilation and water loss. Although India shows large spatiotemporal variation in water table depth (WTD), and increasing groundwater stress, the influence of WTD on ecosystem functioning remains underexplored. This study uses satellite-based, modeled, and in-situ datasets to (1) quantify variations in CUE and WUE under shallow (SWTD) and deep (DWTD) WTD conditions across six homogeneous meteorological regions (HMRs), (2) evaluate temporal roles of gross primary productivity (GPP), net primary productivity (NPP), and evapotranspiration (ET) in driving these efficiencies, and (3) examine temporal responses to WTD shifts. SWTD regions generally showed 12 to 18 % higher GPP, 10 to 15 % higher NPP, and 10 to 20 % higher ET than DWTD zones, especially in semi-arid croplands and forests, leading to 8 to 12 % higher CUE and WUE. However, in humid and heavily irrigated regions such as northeastern and hilly India, CUE was up to 10 % higher in DWTD zones, possibly due to reduced respiration and better soil aeration compared to SWTD areas affected by waterlogging. During the Kharif (wet) season, DWTD croplands in humid zones had higher efficiencies, while in the Rabi (dry) season, SWTD croplands in northern India benefited from irrigation and cooler temperatures. These results highlight strong influence of WTD on carbon and water use processes and support the need for region-specific groundwater strategies.

Carbon use efficiency↗

Sampling the ENSO response to tropical volcanic eruptions in the GISS-E2-1 model: physical & biogeochemical ocean effects

Despite observational evidence that an El-Niño is likely to follow tropical volcanic eruptions (Predybaylo et al, 2017), modelling studies have so far reached no consensus on either the sign or physical mechanism of El Niño response to volcanism (Khodri et al, 2017) . A previous modelling study found that following the Pinatubo eruption, the tropical Pacific developed El Niño-like conditions that triggered a decrease in the upwelling of DIC and increased carbon uptake (Eddebbar et al., 2019). However, the carbon cycle response to volcanisms as it depends on ENSO phase remains unclear. Here we perform thirty ensemble control simulations using the GISS-E2-1-G model to sample the pre-industrial control ENSO cycle and thirty more to superimpose a Pinatubo-like volcanic eruption. We find that the model tends to favor the development of a weak El-Niño following the volcanic eruption only in the case of a volcano that erupts at the start of a neutral ENSO phase. In response to the weak El-Niño, some anomalies have the same sign as those that develop from a strong El-Niño, such as weaker winds, shallower mixed layer depths, less direct but more diffuse radiation at the surface of the ocean, less nitrate, and lower primary productivity. However, other anomalies show the opposite sign as those from a strong El-Niño, such as more precipitation, less surface DIC, and less surface ocean pCO 2 . In contrast to the neutral phase, the volcanic response during positive ENSO and negative ENSO phases are swamped by the model’s internal variability.

ENSO↗

Functional plasticity of HCO 3 – uptake and CO 2 fixation in Cupriavidus necator H16

Despite its prominence, the ability to engineer Cupriavidus necator H16 for inorganic carbon uptake and fixation is underexplored. We tested the roles of endogenous and heterologous genes on C. necator inorganic carbon metabolism. Deletion of β-carbonic anhydrase can had the most deleterious effect on C. necator autotrophic growth. Replacement of this native uptake system with several classes of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) transporters from Cyanobacteria and chemolithoautotrophic bacteria recovered autotrophic growth and supported higher cell densities compared to wild-type (WT) C. necator in batch culture. Strains expressing Halothiobacillus neopolitanus DAB2 (hnDAB2) and diverse rubisco homologs grew in CO 2 similarly to the wild-type strain. Our experiments suggest that the primary role of carbonic anhydrase during autotrophic growth is to support anaplerotic metabolism, and an array of DIC transporters can complement this function. This work demonstrates flexibility in HCO 3 - uptake and CO 2 fixation in C. necator, providing new pathways for CO 2 -based biomanufacturing.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Observations of Ocean Primary Productivity Using MODIS

Measuring the magnitude and variability of oceanic net primary productivity (NPP) represents a key advancement toward our understanding of the dynamics of marine ecosystems and the role of the ocean in the global carbon cycle. MODIS observations make two new contributions in addition to continuing the bio-optical time series begun with Orbview-2's SeaWiFS sensor. First, MODIS provides weekly estimates of global ocean net primary productivity on weekly and annual time periods, and annual empirical estimates of carbon export production. Second, MODIS provides additional insight into the spatial and temporal variations in photosynthetic efficiency through the direct measurements of solar-stimulated chlorophyll fluorescence. The two different weekly productivity indexes (first developed by Behrenfeld & Falkowski and by Yoder, Ryan and Howard) are used to derive daily productivity as a function of chlorophyll biomass, incident daily surface irradiance, temperature, euphotic depth, and mixed layer depth. Comparisons between these two estimates using both SeaWiFS and MODIS data show significant model differences in spatial distribution after allowance for the different integration depths. Both estimates are strongly dependence on the accuracy of the chlorophyll determination. In addition, an empirical approach is taken on annual scales to estimate global NPP and export production. Estimates of solar stimulated fluorescence efficiency from chlorophyll have been shown to be inversely related to photosynthetic efficiency by Abbott and co-workers. MODIS provides the first global estimates of oceanic chlorophyll fluorescence, providing an important proof of concept. MODIS observations are revealing spatial patterns of fluorescence efficiency which show expected variations with phytoplankton photo-physiological parameters as measured during in-situ surveys. This has opened the way for research into utilizing this information to improve our understanding of oceanic NPP variability. Deriving the ocean bio-optical properties places severe demands on instrument performance (especially band to band precision) and atmospheric correction. Improvements in MODIS instrument characterization and calibration over the first 16 mission months have greatly improved the accuracy of the chlorophyll input fields and FLH, and therefore the estimates of NPP and fluorescence efficiency. Annual estimates now show the oceanic NPP accounts for 40-50% of the global total NPP, with significant interannual variations related to large scale ocean processes. Spatial variations in ocean NPP, and exported production, have significant effects on exchange of CO2 between the ocean and atmosphere. Further work is underway to improve both the primary productivity model functions, and to refine our understanding of the relationships between fluorescence efficiency and NPP estimates. We expect that the MODIS instruments will prove extremely useful in assessing the time dependencies of oceanic carbon uptake and effects of iron enrichment, within the global carbon cycle.

Esaias, Wayne E.↗

Where old meets new: An ecosystem study of methanogenesis in a reflooded agricultural peatland

Reflooding formerly drained peatlands has been proposed as a means to reduce losses of organic matter and sequester soil carbon for climate change mitigation, but a renewal of high methane emissions has been reported for these ecosystems, offsetting mitigation potential. Our ability to interpret observed methane fluxes in reflooded peatlands and make predictions about future flux trends is limited due to a lack of detailed studies of methanogenic processes. In this study we investigate methanogenesis in a reflooded agricultural peatland in the Sacramento Delta, California. Furthermore, we use the stable-and radio-carbon isotopic signatures of wetland sediment methane, ecosystem-scale eddy covariance flux observations, and laboratory incubation experiments, to identify which carbon sources and methanogenic production pathways fuel methanogenesis and how these processes are affected by vegetation and seasonality. We found that the old peat contribution to annual methane emissions was large (~30%) compared to intact wetlands, indicating a biogeochemical legacy of drainage. However, fresh carbon and the acetoclastic pathway still accounted for the majority of methanogenesis throughout the year. Although temperature sensitivities for bulk peat methanogenesis were similar between open-water (Q 10 = 2.1) and vegetated (Q 10 = 2.3) soils, methane production from both fresh and old carbon sources showed pronounced seasonality in vegetated zones. We conclude that high methane emissions in restored wetlands constitute a biogeochemical trade-off with contemporary carbon uptake, given that methane efflux is fueled primarily by fresh carbon inputs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Local carbon reserves are insufficient for phloem terpene induction during drought in Pinus edulis in response to bark beetle–associated fungi

Stomatal closure during drought inhibits carbon uptake and may reduce a tree's defensive capacity. Limited carbon availability during drought may increase a tree's mortality risk, particularly if drought constrains trees' capacity to rapidly produce defenses during biotic attack. We parameterized a new model of conifer defense using physiological data on carbon reserves and chemical defenses before and after a simulated bark beetle attack in mature Pinus edulis under experimental drought. Attack was simulated using inoculations with a consistent bluestain fungus (Ophiostoma sp.) of Ips confusus, the main bark beetle colonizing this tree, to induce a defensive response. Trees with more carbon reserves produced more defenses but measured phloem carbon reserves only accounted for c. 23% of the induced defensive response. Our model predicted universal mortality if local reserves alone supported defense production, suggesting substantial remobilization and transport of stored resin or carbon reserves to the inoculation site. Our results show that de novo terpene synthesis represents only a fraction of the total measured phloem terpenes in P. edulis following fungal inoculation. Without direct attribution of phloem terpene concentrations to available carbon, many studies may be overestimating the scale and importance of de novo terpene synthesis in a tree's induced defense response.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A GEO Hyperspectral Mission For Continental-Scale Carbon Cycle Observations

For both terrestrial and ocean carbon cycle science objectives, a hyperspectral geostationary sensor should enable the development of new remote sensing measurements for important but as yet unobservable variables, and with the overall goal of linking both terrestrial and ocean carbon cycle processes to climate variability. For terrestrial research, accurate estimates of carbon, water and energy (CWE) exchange between the terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere are needed to identify the geographical locations of carbon sources/sinks and to improve regional climate models and global climate change assessments. It is an enormous challenge to estimate CWE exchange from the infrequent temporal coverage provided by most polar-orbiting satellites, and without benefit of spectral indices that capture vegetation responses to stress conditions that down-regulate photosynthesis. Physiological status can be better assessed with spectral indices based on continuous, narrow (5 nm) bands, as can seasonal and annual terrestrial productivity. For coastal and ocean constituents, narrow-band observations in the ultraviolet and visible are essential to investigate the variability, dynamics and biogeochemical cycles of the world s coastal and open ocean regions, which will in turn help in measuring ocean productivity and predicting the variability of Ocean carbon uptake and its role in climate change scenarios. The GSFC Carbon Team has been pursuing a geostationary hyperspectral instrument, which would revolutionize our knowledge of biological processes on land, in the ocean, and along the coast by providing multiple, diurnal coverage. Preliminary studies in Goddard's Instrument Synthesis and Analysis Laboratory (ISAL) indicate that we can meet many of our science requirements: full spectral coverage (360-1000 nm); narrow bandwidths (5-10 nm); adequate ground resolution (100-200 m); and continental-scale coverage 4-6 times per day; all the while achieving a signal to noise ratio of between 500 and 1000 to 1. However, an innovative and bold focal plane design and a large mirror (1.8 meter diameter) would be required. The development of our science requirements and the results of the initial design study will be presented as well as our most recent technological developments.

Gervin, Janette C.↗

Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS): Final Report of the ASCENDS Ad Hoc Science Definition Team

Improved remote sensing observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are critically needed to quantify, monitor, and understand the Earth's carbon cycle and its evolution in a changing climate. The processes governing ocean and terrestrial carbon uptake remain poorly understood,especially in dynamic regions with large carbon stocks and strong vulnerability to climate change,for example, the tropical land biosphere, the northern hemisphere high latitudes, and the Southern Ocean. Because the passive spectrometers used by GOSAT (Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite) and OCO-2 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2) require sunlit and cloud-free conditions,current observations over these regions remain infrequent and are subject to biases. These short comings limit our ability to understand and predict the processes controlling the carbon cycle on regional to global scales.In contrast, active CO2 remote-sensing techniques allow accurate measurements to be taken day and night, over ocean and land surfaces, in the presence of thin or scattered clouds, and at all times of year. Because of these benefits, the National Research Council recommended the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights,Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) mission in the 2007 report Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond. The ability of ASCENDS to collect low-bias observations in these key regions is expected to address important gaps in our knowledge of the contemporary carbon cycle.The ASCENDS ad hoc Science Definition Team (SDT), comprised of carbon cycle modeling and active remote sensing instrument teams throughout the United States (US), worked to develop the mission's requirements and advance its readiness from 2008 through 2018. Numerous scientific investigations were carried out to identify the benefit and feasibility of active CO2 remote sensing measurements for improving our understanding of CO2 sources and sinks. This report summarizes their findings and recommendations based on mission modeling studies, analysis of ancillary meteorological data products, development and demonstration of candidate technologies, anddesign studies of the ASCENDS mission concept.

Kawa, S. Randolph↗