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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Do Better Satellite Precipitation Algorithms Improve Landslide Hazard Assessment?

Satellites make it possible to estimate precipitation in near real time. Given the challenges of achieving global coverage by other means, these data are used widely. However, few systems for landslide hazard assessment rely on satellite precipitation estimates. This could be due in part to perceptions of accuracy, although latency, spatial resolution, and other factors may also be important. We test whether recent changes to data streams from the Global Precipitation Measurement mission (GPM) have improved its potential for use in landslide prediction. Specifically, we examine data produced by the Integrated Multi-satellitERetrievals for the GPM (IMERG) algorithm, which was upgraded to version 7 this year. IMERG relies upon other algorithms, including the Goddard Profiling Algorithm (GPROF) and the GPM Combined Radar-Radiometer Algorithm (CORRA). Many changes have been made during the switch from IMERG version 6 to version 7. These include upgrading CORRA and GPROF to version 7, to improve the accuracy of precipitation in frozen, mountainous, and coastal areas. The measured intensity of some storms has been enhanced with a new algorithm, the Scheme for Histogram Adjustment with Ranked Precipitation Estimates in the Neighborhood. Combined with many others, these changes to IMERG should improve its utility for landslide hazard assessment in a variety of contexts. To test this idea, we retrain the global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model twice—first with data from IMERG version 6B and second with 7B. Since current daily rainfall is the most important variable in determining outcomes predicted by LHASA, it should reflect changes made to that input. First, we grid the landslides at a daily, thirty-arcsecond resolution. This serves as the response variable. At each of these sites current and antecedent rainfall are extracted, along with antecedent snow mass and soil moisture, slope, and PGA. In addition, one million grid cells are selected at random points to represent conditions under which landslides (probably) do not occur. After merging these data, we hold back 20% of the dataset for validation purposes and train a machine-learning model with the rest. We assess both the model’s overall ability to identify landslides and its ability to predict specific large landslide disasters.

Thomas A Stanley↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Informing Wildfire Needs: The Expanded User Interface of NASA's Fire Information for Resource Management System (Firms)

As the global community continues to experience, and respond to, living in a changing environment, access to tools, technologies, and timely data utilized by an increasingly diverse set of stakeholders is increasing. This year, 2023, has thus far seen an unprecedented number of extreme events, increasingly driven by changes in the climate and a strong 2023 ENSO pattern. In Canada, a record number of wildfires, and associated weather events, evacuations, and infrastructure and habitat destruction has taken place, and is ongoing. Large swaths of Greece have experienced similar wildfire destruction. Most recently, Maui has experienced destructive wildfires, and early 2023 saw massive wildfires in Chile. NASA's Fire Information for Resource Management System, or FIRMS, has a fifteen-year history of providing timely and comprehensive data and information on wildfires to stakeholders. FIRMS was initially developed in 2007 by the University of Maryland, with funds from NASA's Applied Sciences Program and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (UN FAO), to provide near real-time active fire Locations to natural resource managers that faced challenges obtaining timely satellite-derived fire information. FIRMS has consistently evolved to address the needs of stakeholders Living in a changing environment; in 2012 it transitioned to NASA LANCE and in 2021 through a partnership between NASA and the US Forest Service, an updated version of FIRMS was released for the US and Canada. As NASA and other federal agencies continue to accelerate Open Science through integrated efforts such as the Year of Open Science, the provision of readily discoverable, findable, accessible, interoperable, reusable data represents a major focus to facilitate equitable outcomes. FIRMS supports this acceleration in Open Science by continuing to provision data and information for its traditional user base, while addressing the novel user needs of an increasingly diverse set of stakeholders seeking robust, reliable, transparently generated data and information. Increasingly, FIRMS is utilized by citizen scientists and individuals directly affected by wildfires - through evacuations, risks to structures/homes, poor air quality. etc. FIRMS has also been Leveraged to detect and assess the impacts resulting from ongoing conflicts. This further highlights the multi-faceted impacts of wildfires and other events. In the Fall of 2023, FIRMS will release an expanded User Interface (UI). This interface captures and reflects the needs of, and input from, a multitude of users. These users range from federal agency representatives to non-government organizations to the private sector to citizen science entities. To respond to this expansive and diverse user need base, the updated FIRMS UI will capture a range of features to support those beginning to explore the range of data and tools available to inform wildfire awareness and knowledge. These users are supported through a Basic Mode interface, furnishing access to a light set of functionalities that provision straight-forward, readily usable information and data, and ingestible knowledge. The Advanced Mode interface supports those stakeholder groups already proficient in navigating FIRMS. These stakeholders, representing fire managers and others, perform active fire management and tactical wildfire response activities. For these stakeholders, additional datasets have been included which require in-depth knowledge of both the utility as well as the caveats of such datasets. Additional functionalities have also been embedded to aid specific user queries. The expanded UI will introduce a new Experimental Mode. The focus of this UI will be to support the provision of emerging and innovative datasets that are in development for review and comment by the user community Examples include post-fire products generated by NASA's Earth Information System (EIS) Fire. This presentation will provide an overview of the expanded FIRMS UI. We will discuss how this UI is designed to be scalable and support the unique needs of an expanding and diverse user base. We will highlight key features, elements, and datasets, and describe how user needs have informed and guided the design of the UI. We will also share recent use cases to convey, and increase awareness, among conference participants. As the global community faces more extreme wildfires, due to climate variability and change, there is an increased need for reliable data to inform, manage, and mitigate the impacts of these events. Through this work, NASA FIRMS is striving to level the playing field, by making information accessible to all; from policy makers to the private sector to historically marginalized communities. In doing so, NASA is promoting the all-hands-on-deck response needed to minimize the impacts of wildfires and harness the strengths of open science to address the greatest environmental challenge faced.

Jenny Hewson↗
DOE OSTI2026

Superstructure Optimization of Waste Plastic Pyrolysis, Integrating Thermal, Catalytic, and Plasma Technologies with Machine Learning

Global plastic waste generation exceeds 430 million tonnes per year, yet fewer than 9% are recycled in the United States. Pyrolysis offers a chemical recycling route at scale, but existing techno-economic and life cycle assessments fix product yields to single pure polymers, producing economic and environmental outputs that break down when the feed composition changes. Here, we present a superstructure optimization framework that addresses this by embedding a composition-aware random forest yield predictor, trained on 566 pyrolysis experiments, within a full-scale process simulation. Product distributions update automatically as feed allocation shifts across four reactor chemistries: conventional thermal, catalytic (HZSM-5), thermal oxo-degradation, and nonequilibrium CO2 plasma. The optimal superstructure achieves minimum selling prices of −0.56 to −0.76/kg feed and global warming potentials of −0.276 to −0.322 kg CO2-eq/kg feed across four commodity price scenarios, confirming profitable, carbon-negative operation without tipping fees. Carbon abatement costs of $\$$0.46 to $\$$1.25/kg CO2-eq are competitive with direct air capture. Sensitivity analysis shows that the catalytic-plasma split fraction is the single largest driver of both economic and climate performance, while hydrocracking allocation in the wax upgrading stage is emission-neutral across the full variable range. Mixed plastic waste streams, evaluated as composition-variable feedstocks rather than pure resins, are profitable and carbon-negative across realistic market conditions. These results give a quantitative basis for reactor selection, circular economy investment, and policy design targeting chemical recycling on a large scale.

Life cycle assessment↗
NASA NTRS2012

Communicating the Needs of Climate Change Policy Makers to Scientists

This chapter will describe the challenges that earth scientists face in developing science data products relevant to decision maker and policy needs, and will describe strategies that can improve the two-way communication between the scientist and the policy maker. Climate change policy and decision making happens at a variety of scales - from local government implementing solar homes policies to international negotiations through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Scientists can work to provide data at these different scales, but if they are not aware of the needs of decision makers or understand what challenges the policy maker is facing, they are likely to be less successful in influencing policy makers as they wished. This is because the science questions they are addressing may be compelling, but not relevant to the challenges that are at the forefront of policy concerns. In this chapter we examine case studies of science-policy partnerships, and the strategies each partnership uses to engage the scientist at a variety of scales. We examine three case studies: the global Carbon Monitoring System pilot project developed by NASA, a forest biomass mapping effort for Silvacarbon project, and a forest canopy cover project being conducted for forest management in Maryland. In each of these case studies, relationships between scientists and policy makers were critical for ensuring the focus of the science as well as the success of the decision-making.

Brown, Molly E.↗
NASA NTRS2018

The NASA-Rio de Janeiro Partnership

In Dec. 2015, NASA and the city of Rio de Janeiro signed an agreement to support innovative efforts to better understand, anticipate, and monitor hazards, including heavy rainfall, sea level rise, and landslides in and around the city. This collaboration will leverage the unique attributes of NASA's satellite data and Rio de Janeiro's management and monitoring capabilities to improve awareness of how the city of Rio may be inpacted by hazards and affected by climate change.

applications↗
NASA NTRS2019

Initial TASAR Operations Onboard Alaska Airlines

NASA and Alaska Airlines jointly conducted an operational evaluation of NASA’s Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Request (TASAR) concept. Featuring a NASA-developed cockpit automation tool, the Traffic Aware Planner (TAP), and leveraging the emerging “connected aircraft” architecture, TASAR enables pilots to identify route changes compatible with nearby traffic and airspace constraints that improve flight efficiency and are more likely to receive Air Traffic Control approval. TASAR was developed in anticipation of saving fuel and flight time, thereby providing immediate and pervasive benefits to the aircraft operator. Following a previously reported, extensive program of integration and preliminary in-flight testing, the operational evaluation of TASAR in revenue service by Alaska Airlines took place from July 2018 to April 2019. This paper describes the operational evaluation, the methodology for quantifying operational benefits, preliminary benefit results, and other unexpected impacts of TASAR operations during revenue flights. Based on the subset of data available at publication, preliminary estimated benefits averaged about $92 per flight across all flights including those without benefit. Identified factors indicate the estimated benefit per flight was likely a conservative estimate. Benefit categories including home runs, cumulative small gains, and plan validation benefits are illustrated with specific examples observed during the operational evaluation.

Wing, David J.↗
DOE OSTI2026

CAHS: Context-Aware Homology Search

Protein homology search is foundational to bioinformatics: it supports annotation transfer, structure/function inference, and evolutionary analysis over rapidly expanding sequence repositories (e.g., UniProtKB). Profile hidden Markov models (pHMMs), as implemented in HMMER, remain the most widely trusted approach because they provide statistically calibrated E-values; however, their gap behavior is fixed once a profile is trained, despite biological evidence that insertion/deletion tolerance varies across flexible loops and intrinsically disordered regions. We present CAHS (Context-Aware Homology Search), a lightweight query-time adapter for pHMM search that incorporates learned and biologically motivated signals without changing HMMER's downstream search pipeline or its calibrated E-value reporting. Given a query sequence, CAHS computes per-residue representations from a protein language model and a disorder predictor, maps these to profile coordinates, and modulates only match-state transition rows (gap-open and gap-extension probabilities) while preserving Plan7 constraints. We comprehensively evaluate CAHS across six structurally diverse protein families and multi-domain architectures against a 570k-sequence target corpus. CAHS expands detection capability, retrieving thousands of additional remote homologs at relaxed thresholds by maintaining alignment quality through flexible regions. For multi-domain proteins, context-aware modulation resolves 94% of fragmented alignments. Crucially, CAHS preserves hit-set invariance at stringent operating points (E<10-10), demonstrating increased statistical confidence without inflating false positives. Furthermore, sharper statistical distinction between homologs and background noise during early filter stages yields up to a 3.87× acceleration in end-to-end wall-clock time on high-performance computing clusters. Overall, CAHS illustrates a practical AI-for-science design pattern: augmenting a trusted probabilistic model with query-specific learned signals to improve interpretable, reproducible inference in data-rich biology.

Bhattaram, Swethasree [Georgia Institute of Techno↗
NASA NTRS1975

Historical aspects of technology assessment

The historical developments which have brought about changes in the way technology is viewed are discussed. These include: (1) the broadening through the centuries of the social context for technological change and assessment; (2) the growing need since the Industrial Revolution for assessment; (3) the recent deepening awareness of the impacts of technology; (4) the development of social and communal responsibility for technology, and (5) the current growth in the assessment capability.

Kranzberg, M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Space Weather Status for Exploration Radiation Protection

Management of crew exposure to radiation is a major concern for manned spaceflight and will be even more important for the modern concept of longer-duration exploration. The inherent protection afforded to astronauts by the magnetic field of the Earth in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) makes operations on the space shuttle or space station very different from operations during an exploration mission. In order to experience significant radiation-derived Loss of Mission (LOM) or Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for LEO operations, one is almost driven to dictate extreme duration or to dictate an extreme sequence of solar activity. Outside of the geo-magnetosphere, however, this scenario changes dramatically. Exposures to the same event on the ISS and in free space, for example, may differ by orders of magnitude. This change in magnitude, coupled with the logistical constraints present in implementing any practical operational mitigation make situational awareness with regard to space weather a limiting factor for the ability to conduct exploration operations. We present a current status of developing operational concepts for manned exploration and expectations for asset viability and available predictive and characterization toolsets.

Fry, Dan J.↗
NASA NTRS1988

A schema-based model of situation awareness: Implications for measuring situation awareness

Measures of pilot situation awareness (SA) are needed in order to know whether new concepts in display design help pilots keep track of rapidly changing tactical situations. In order to measure SA, a theory of situation assessment is needed. Such a theory is summarized, encompassing both a definition of SA and a model of situation assessment. SA is defined as the pilot's knowledge about a zone of interest at a given level of abstraction. Pilots develop this knowledge by sampling data from the environment and matching the sampled data to knowledge structures stored in long-term memory. Matched knowledge structures then provide the pilot's assessment of the situation and serve to guide his attention. A number of cognitive biases that result from the knowledge matching process are discussed, as are implications for partial report measures of situation awareness.

Fracker, Martin L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Significant issues in proof testing: A critical appraisal

Issues which impact on the interpretation and quantification of proof test benefits are reviewed. The importance of each issue in contributing to the extra quality assurance conferred by proof testing components is discussed, particularly with respect to the application of advanced fracture mechanics concepts to enhance the flaw screening capability of a proof test analysis. Items covered include the role in proof testing of elastic-plastic fracture mechanics, ductile instability analysis, deterministic versus probabilistic analysis, single versus multiple cycle proof testing, and non-destructive examination (NDE). The effects of proof testing on subsequent service life are reviewed, particularly with regard to stress redistribution and changes in fracture behavior resulting from the overload. The importance of proof test conditions are also addressed, covering aspects related to test temperature, simulation of service environments, test media and the application of real-time NDE. The role of each issue in a proof test methodology is assessed with respect to its ability to: promote proof test practice to a state-of-the-art; aid optimization of proof test design; and increase awareness and understanding of outstanding issues.

Chell, G. G.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Supporting Hazard Analysis for Wildfire Response Using fmdtools and MIKA

The System Wide Safety (SWS) Safety Demonstrator (SD) Series drives development of an increasingly capable In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) focusing on humanitarian applications, starting with wildfire response (SD-1). The goals of this report are to (1) provide an early hazard analysis and mitigation evaluation of wildfire response to support these efforts and (2) provide a demonstration of capabilities of the Fault Model Design Tools (fmdtools) and Manager for Intelligent Knowledge Access (MIKA) tools. fmdtools provides a modeling, simulation, and resiliency analysis framework in which a wildfire response model, the System Modeling and Analysis of Resiliency in Scalable Traffic Management for Emergency Response Operations (SMARt-STEReO), is built. MIKA is an intelligent knowledge manager with several capabilities, including assisting in hazard analysis by extracting and analyzing hazards from historical incident reports. The following topics are covered in the report: Understanding Wildfire Hazard Dynamics. We provide a description and simulated examples of how hazards occur in the SMARt-STEReO model of wildfire response and their effect on its outcome. This provides a common mental model and focuses the analysis presented in the remainder of the report. Wildfire Hazard Identification. MIKA identifies wildfire hazards from three relevant datasets: the ICS-209-PLUS, SAFECOM, and SAFENET. Hazards are manually organized into a taxonomy and MIKA analyzes each hazard’s effects, likelihood, severity, and risk. Evaluating Mitigation Strategies. The SMARt-STEReO wildfire response model built in fmdtools evaluates a subset of identified hazards. Specifically, we simulate the effect of communications faults and equipment faults on operator safety, the effect of changing winds and flammability, and a scenario with multiple ignition points and heavy smoke. Tool Limitations and Usage Considerations. We provide a discussion of appropriate tool use cases as well as limitations and considerations for usage. The tool findings are used to synthesize recommendations for wildfire response operations, which can be captured as part of an IASMS. Key recommendations are as follows: Hazards are identified from a broad spectrum of sources including aircraft subsystems, operational sources, and ground crew operations. Highest risk operational environment hazards identified are Evacuations. The highest risk manned aerial operations hazard categorized is Jumper Operations Mishap. Ground crew hazards that are highest risk are Burns, Cargo Operations Overhead, Dehydration, Entrapment, Falling Objects, Heart Attacks, Heat Exhaustion, Inadequate Training or Certification, Vehicle Breakdown, and Vehicle Collision. Modelled containment failures arise from a mismatch between the difficulty of the firefighting scenario and the capacity (e.g., speed, effectiveness, awareness) of the response. In firefighting scenarios where containment is possible (e.g., because the fire does not spread too quickly), these mismatches can occur because of a change in environmental conditions (e.g., wind, flammability, etc) or because of planning, equipment, or communications faults. Improvements to communications increase the capacity of the firefighting response by reducing the time needed to respond to the fire. While surveillance does not increase this capacity by itself, it increases operator safety by increasing state awareness, enabling firefighters to evade approaching fires. Increasing both has a synergistic effect. In general, these performance and resilience increases generalize over fault scenarios as well as unforeseen changes to circumstances (i.e., wind, aridity, etc.). However, these improvements need to be designed so as not to make the system prone to persistent large-scale communications outages, which can reduce performance.

Hazard analysis↗
DOE OSTI2026

Southern Hemisphere Polar Infrared Radiation Experiment (SHIRE) Field Campaign Report

An extended-range atmospheric emitted radiance interferometer (AERI) instrument to be deployed to Scott Base (78 S, 166 E) in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica for the purpose of synergizing with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Polar Radiant Energy in the Far-InfraRed Experiment (PREFIRE) satellite mission (https://prefire.ssec.wisc.edu/), examining the closure of atmospheric thermal emission, and providing validation for PREFIRE. The PREFIRE mission is the first satellite mission to map Earth’s spectrally resolved thermal emission, from 5 to 50 microns, over seasonal to annual timescales. These new observations represent the beginning of an intensive examination of the nature of thermal emission from Earth (emission from both the surface and atmosphere). A primary requirement of the PREFIRE mission is to provide validation of the retrieved variables. Numerous field sites in the Arctic (such as the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) North Slope of Alaska observatory and Summit Station, Greenland) have existing instrumentation to facilitate validation, leaving an observational gap in Antarctica. Through SHIRE, we propose to establish a temporary, intensive measurement site in Antarctica to ensure that both poles are suitably represented, and benefit from this state-of-the art science. This will also allow Arctic and Antarctic atmospheric radiative states to be compared and contrasted. For SHIRE specifically, we also propose further objectives to examine the spectrally resolved thermal radiative closure of the polar atmosphere and the historical changes in Antarctic radiative forcing, using previous Antarctic field campaigns, such as the ARM West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Conundrum of Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization and the Urban Heat Island Effect

The twenty-first century is the first urban century according to the United Nations Development Program. The focus on cities reflects awareness of the growing percentage of the world's population that lives in urban areas. In 2000, approximately 3 billion people representing about 40% of the global population resided in urban areas. The United Nations estimates that by 2025, 60% of the world s population will live in urban areas. As a consequence, the number of megacities (those cities with populations of 10 million inhabitants or more) will increase by 100 by 2025. Thus, there is a critical need to understand the spatial growth of urban areas and what the impacts are on the environment. Moreover, there is a critical need to assess how under global climate change, cities will affect the local, regional, and even global climate. As urban areas increase in size, it is anticipated there will be a concomitant growth of the Urban Heat Island effect (UHI), and the attributes that are related to its spatial and temporal dynamics. Therefore, how climate change, including the dynamics of the UHI, will affect the urban environment, must be explored to help mitigate potential impacts on the environment (e.g., air quality, heat stress, vectorborne disease) and on human health and well being, to develop adaptation schemes to cope with these impacts.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Best Practices for Evaluating Flight Deck Interfaces for Transport Category Aircraft with Particular Relevance to Issues of Attention, Awareness, and Understanding CAST SE-210 Output 2 Report 6 of 6

Attention, awareness, and understanding of the flight crew are a critical contributor to safety and the flight deck plays a critical role in supporting these cognitive functions. Changes to the flight deck need to be evaluated for whether the changed device provides adequate support for these functions. This report describes a set of diverse evaluation methods. The report recommends designing the interface-evaluation to span the phases of the device development, from early to late, and it provides methods appropriate at each phase. It describes the various ways in which an interface or interface component can fail to support awareness as potential issues to be assessed in evaluation. It summarizes appropriate methods to evaluate different issues concerning inadequate support for these functions, throughout the phases of development.

Billman, Dorrit O.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Four Generations of Maintenance Resource Management Programs in the United States: An Analysis of the Past, Present, and Future

This paper analyzes four generations of Maintenance Resource Management (MRM) programs implemented by aviation maintenance organizations in the United States. Data collected from over ten years of survey research and field observations are used for this analysis; they are presented in a case-study format. The first three generations of MRM programs were episodic efforts to increase safety through teamwork, focus group discussions, and awareness courses, respectively. Now, the fourth generation programs, characterized by a commitment to long-term communication and behavioral changes in maintenance, are set to build on those earlier generations, toward a culture of mutual trust between mechanics, their managers, and regulators.

Taylor, James C.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Operational Improvements From the In-Trail Procedure in the North Atlantic Organized Track System

This paper explains the computerized batch processing experiment examining the operational impacts of the introduction of Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) equipment and the In-Trail Procedure (ITP) to the North Atlantic Organized Track System (NATOTS). This experiment was conducted using the Traffic Manager (TMX), a desktop simulation capable of simulating airspace environments and aircraft operations. ADS-B equipment can enable the use of new ground and airborne procedures, such as the ITP. The ITP is among the first of these new procedures, which will make use of improved situation awareness in the local surrounding airspace of ADS-B equipped aircraft to enable more efficient oceanic flight level changes. The data collected were analyzed with respect to multiple operationally relevant parameters including fuel burn, request approval rates, and the distribution of fuel savings. This experiment showed that through the use of ADS-B or ADS-B and the ITP that operational improvements and benefits could be achieved.

Chartrand, Ryan C.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Operational Improvements From Using the In-Trail Procedure in the North Atlantic Organized Track System

This paper explains the computerized batch processing experiment examining the operational impacts of the introduction of Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) equipment and the In-Trail Procedure (ITP) to the North Atlantic Organized Track System. This experiment was conducted using the Traffic Manager (TMX), a desktop simulation capable of simulating airspace environments and aircraft operations. ADS-B equipment can enable the use of new ground and airborne procedures, such as the ITP. ITP is among the first of these new procedures, which will make use of improved situation awareness in the local surrounding airspace of ADS-B equipped aircraft to enable more efficient oceanic flight level changes. The collected data were analyzed with respect to multiple operationally relevant parameters including fuel burn, request approval rates, and the distribution of fuel savings. This experiment showed that through the use of ADS-B or ADS-B and the ITP that operational improvements and benefits could be achieved.

Chartrand, Ryan C.↗