An Overview of the Atmospheric Component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Lateral Gene Transfer Drives Metabolic Flexibility in the Anaerobic Methane-Oxidizing Archaeal Family Methanoperedenaceae
AOM by microorganisms limits the atmospheric release of the potent greenhouse gas methane and has consequent importance for the global carbon cycle and climate change modeling. While the oxidation of methane coupled to sulfate by consortia of anaerobic methanotrophic (ANME) archaea and bacteria is well documented, several other potential electron acceptors have also been reported to support AOM. In this study, we identify a number of novel respiratory strategies that appear to have been laterally acquired by members of the Methanoperedenaceae , as they are absent from related archaea and other ANME lineages. Expanding the known metabolic potential for members of the Methanoperedenaceae provides important insight into their ecology and suggests their role in linking methane oxidation to several global biogeochemical cycles.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Vertically Resolved Retrievals of Aerosol Concentrations and Effective Radii from the DOE Combined HSRL and Raman lidar Measurement Study (CHARMS) Merged High-Spectral-Resolution Lidar-Raman Lidar Data Set
The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility is a key component of DOE’s research strategy to address global climate change. The objective of the ARM Facility is to provide an experimental testbed for studying important atmospheric effects, particularly cloud and aerosol processes, and testing parameterizations of these processes for use in climate change models. ARM observational sites include a broad array of instruments to characterize cloud and aerosol properties, atmospheric state variables, and incoming and outgoing radiation. Advanced lidar systems provide valuable and unique information about the atmospheric column. We examine the potential for providing vertically resolved information about aerosol size and concentration with a combination of two such lidar systems, the Raman lidar and the High-Spectral-Resolution Lidar (HSRL). Currently ARM has a limited ability to remotely measure profiles of aerosol optical and microphysical properties on an operational basis. Although the Southern Great Plains (SGP), Eastern North Atlantic (ENA), and North Slope of Alaska (NSA, Oliktok Point location only) Raman lidars provide profiles of aerosol backscatter and extinction at 355 nm, additional information is required to better characterize the impacts of aerosols on radiation and clouds. Recent advances in lidar retrieval theory and algorithm development (Müller et al. 1999, 2014; Chemyakin et al. 2014) demonstrate that multi-wavelength lidar retrieval algorithms that use measurements of aerosol extinction at both 355 and 532 nm and backscatter at 355, 532, and 1064 nm have the potential to constrain both the aerosol optical (e.g., complex index of refraction, scattering, etc.) and microphysical properties (e.g., effective radius, concentration). This advancement greatly increases the utility of the remote-sensed aerosol observations. Based on this work, the HSRL group at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)’s Langley Research Center (LaRC) developed automated algorithms for retrieving aerosol optical and microphysical properties, demonstrated these retrievals using data from the unique NASA/LaRC airborne multi-wavelength HSRL-2 system, and validated these retrievals using coincident airborne in situ data (Müller et al. 2014; Sawamura et al. 2017). We report here on the use of ARM instrumentation to gather a multi-wavelength ground-based lidar data set to test such retrievals. Continuous (24/7) operation of the co-located SGP Raman lidar and University of Wisconsin (UW) HSRL during the 10-week Combined HSRL and Raman lidar Measurement Study (CHARMS) (mid-July through September 2015) allowed the acquisition of a unique, multi-wavelength ground-based lidar data set. The ARM SGP Raman lidar (RLID) measured profiles of aerosol backscatter, extinction, and depolarization at 355 nm and profiles of water vapor mixing ratio and temperature. The UW HSRL simultaneously measured profiles of aerosol backscatter, extinction and depolarization at 532 nm and aerosol backscatter at 1064 nm. This RLID+HSRL combination provided a test data set to investigate these more advanced aerosol retrieval techniques with the potential to greatly improve aerosol characterization in the lower atmosphere.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Sequence Capture to Monitor Functional Potential of Microbial Communities
Microorganisms play key roles in environmental functioning and understanding their responses to environmental perturbation is critical to developing accurate climate change models, a need highlighted by the DOE. However, their phylogenetic and functional diversity, abundance in the environment, and lack of cultured status make microorganisms challenging to study. While there are several molecular methods available that have been extremely important in advancing our knowledge of microbial ecology, there are serious drawbacks to each of the available methods. In Phase I of this project, we tested the use of a sequence capture method on microbial communities using mock microbial communities and capture probes for 3 different genes (nifH, nirK, and dsrA). We optimized library preparation steps and then tested mock communities with different proportions of members and different hybridization conditions. Our Phase I work demonstrated the feasibility of using this technology for capturing and enriching specific functional genes from microbial communities.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Porewater Geochemical Assessment of Seismic Indications for Gas Hydrate Presence and Absence: Mahia Slope, East of New Zealand’s North Island
We compare sediment vertical methane flux off the Mahia Peninsula, on the Hikurangi Margin, east of New Zealand’s North Island, with a combination of geochemical, multichannel seismic and sub-bottom profiler data. Stable carbon isotope data provided an overview of methane contributions to shallow sediment carbon pools. Methane varied considerably in concentration and vertical flux across stations in close proximities. At two Mahia transects, methane profiles correlated well with integrated seismic and TOPAS data for predicting vertical methane migration rates from deep to shallow sediment. However, at our “control site”, where no seismic blanking or indications of vertical gas migration were observed, geochemical data were similar to the two Mahia transect lines. This apparent mismatch between seismic and geochemistry data suggests a potential to underestimate gas hydrate volumes based on standard seismic data interpretations. To accurately assess global gas hydrate deposits, multiple approaches for initial assessment, e.g., seismic data interpretation, heatflow profiling and controlled-source electromagnetics, should be compared to geochemical sediment and porewater profiles. A more thorough data matrix will provide better accuracy in gas hydrate volume for modeling climate change and potential available energy content.
03 NATURAL GAS↗
Improving Subtropical Boundary Layer Cloudiness in the 2011 NCEP GFS
The current operational version of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecasting System (GFS) shows significant low cloud bias. These biases also appear in the Coupled Forecast System (CFS), which is developed from the GFS. These low cloud biases degrade seasonal and longer climate forecasts, particularly of short-wave cloud radiative forcing, and affect predicted sea surface temperature. Reducing this bias in the GFS will aid the development of future CFS versions and contributes to NCEP's goal of unified weather and climate modelling. Changes are made to the shallow convection and planetary boundary layer parameterisations to make them more consistent with current knowledge of these processes and to reduce the low cloud bias. These changes are tested in a single-column version of GFS and in global simulations with GFS coupled to a dynamical ocean model. In the single-column model, we focus on changing parameters that set the following: the strength of shallow cumulus lateral entrainment, the conversion of updraught liquid water to precipitation and grid-scale condensate, shallow cumulus cloud top, and the effect of shallow convection in stratocumulus environments. Results show that these changes improve the single-column simulations when compared to large eddy simulations, in particular through decreasing the precipitation efficiency of boundary layer clouds. These changes, combined with a few other model improvements, also reduce boundary layer cloud and albedo biases in global coupled simulations.
Fletcher, J. K.↗
Environmental benefits of chemical propulsion
This paper identifies the necessity of chemical propulsion to satellite usage and some of the benefits accrued through monitoring global resources and patterns, including the Global Climate Change Model (GCM). The paper also summarized how the satellite observations are used to affect national and international policies. Chemical propulsion, like all environmentally conscious industries, does provide limited, controlled pollutant sources through its manufacture and usage. However, chemical propulsion is the sole source which enables mankind to launch spacecraft and monitor the Earth. The information provided by remote sensing directly affects national and international policies designed to protect the environment and enhance the overall quality of life on Earth. The resultant of chemical propulsion is the capability to reduce overall pollutant emissions to the benefit of mankind.
Hayes, Joyce A.↗
Measurements of thermal infrared spectral reflectance of frost, snow, and ice
Because much of Earth's surface is covered by frost, snow, and ice, the spectral emissivities of these materials are a significant input to radiation balance calculations in global atmospheric circulation and climate change models. Until now, however, spectral emissivities of frost and snow have been calculated from the optical constants of ice. We have measured directional hemispherical reflectance spectra of frost, snow, and ice from which emissivities can be predicted using Kirchhoff's law (e = 1-R). These measured spectra show that contrary to conclusions about the emissivity of snow drawn from previously calculated spectra, snow emissivity departs significantly from blackbody behavior in the 8-14 micrometer region of the spectrum; snow emissivity decreases with both increasing particle size and increasing density due to packing or grain welding; while snow emissivity increases due to the presence of meltwater.
Salisbury, John W.↗
Multi-Spectral Cloud Retrievals from Moderate Image Spectrometer (MODIS)
MODIS observations from the NASA EOS Terra spacecraft (1030 local time equatorial sun-synchronous crossing) launched in December 1999 have provided a unique set of Earth observation data. With the launch of the NASA EOS Aqua spacecraft (1330 local time crossing! in May 2002: two MODIS daytime (sunlit) and nighttime observations are now available in a 24-hour period allowing some measure of diurnal variability. A comprehensive set of remote sensing algorithms for cloud masking and the retrieval of cloud physical and optical properties has been developed by members of the MODIS atmosphere science team. The archived products from these algorithms have applications in climate modeling, climate change studies, numerical weather prediction, as well as fundamental atmospheric research. In addition to an extensive cloud mask, products include cloud-top properties (temperature, pressure, effective emissivity), cloud thermodynamic phase, cloud optical and microphysical parameters (optical thickness, effective particle radius, water path), as well as derived statistics. An overview of the instrument and cloud algorithms will be presented along with various examples, including an initial analysis of several operational global gridded (Level-3) cloud products from the two platforms. Statistics of cloud optical and microphysical properties as a function of latitude for land and Ocean regions will be shown. Current algorithm research efforts will also be discussed.
Platnick, Steven↗
Far Infrared Measurements of Cirrus
Improved techniques for remote sensing of cirrus are needed to obtain global data for assessing the effect of cirrus in climate change models. Model calculations show that the far infrared/sub-millimeter spectral region is well suited for retrieving cirrus Ice Water Path and particle size parameters. Especially useful cirrus information is obtained at frequencies below 60 cm-1 where single particle scattering dominates over thermal emission for ice particles larger than about 50 m. Earth radiance spectra have been obtained for a range of cloud conditions using an aircraft-based Fourier transform spectrometer. The Far InfraRed Sensor for Cirrus (FIRSC) is a Martin-Puplett interferometer which incorporates a polarizer for the beamsplitter and can be operated in either intensity or linear polarization measurement mode. Two detector channels span 10 to 140 cm-1 with a spectral resolution of 0.1 cm-1; achieving a Noise Equivalent Temperature of approximately 1K at 30 cm-1 in a 4 sec scan. Examples are shown of measured and modeled Earth radiance for a range of cloud conditions from 1998 and 1999 flights.
Nolt, I. G.↗
Improving Climate Projections Using "Intelligent" Ensembles
Recent changes in the climate system have led to growing concern, especially in communities which are highly vulnerable to resource shortages and weather extremes. There is an urgent need for better climate information to develop solutions and strategies for adapting to a changing climate. Climate models provide excellent tools for studying the current state of climate and making future projections. However, these models are subject to biases created by structural uncertainties. Performance metrics-or the systematic determination of model biases-succinctly quantify aspects of climate model behavior. Efforts to standardize climate model experiments and collect simulation data-such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-provide the means to directly compare and assess model performance. Performance metrics have been used to show that some models reproduce present-day climate better than others. Simulation data from multiple models are often used to add value to projections by creating a consensus projection from the model ensemble, in which each model is given an equal weight. It has been shown that the ensemble mean generally outperforms any single model. It is possible to use unequal weights to produce ensemble means, in which models are weighted based on performance (called "intelligent" ensembles). Can performance metrics be used to improve climate projections? Previous work introduced a framework for comparing the utility of model performance metrics, showing that the best metrics are related to the variance of top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation. These metrics improve present-day climate simulations of Earth's energy budget using the "intelligent" ensemble method. The current project identifies several approaches for testing whether performance metrics can be applied to future simulations to create "intelligent" ensemble-mean climate projections. It is shown that certain performance metrics test key climate processes in the models, and that these metrics can be used to evaluate model quality in both current and future climate states. This information will be used to produce new consensus projections and provide communities with improved climate projections for urgent decision-making.
Baker, Noel C.↗
Improving Climate Projections Using "Intelligent" Ensembles
Recent changes in the climate system have led to growing concern, especially in communities which are highly vulnerable to resource shortages and weather extremes. There is an urgent need for better climate information to develop solutions and strategies for adapting to a changing climate. Climate models provide excellent tools for studying the current state of climate and making future projections. However, these models are subject to biases created by structural uncertainties. Performance metrics-or the systematic determination of model biases-succinctly quantify aspects of climate model behavior. Efforts to standardize climate model experiments and collect simulation data-such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-provide the means to directly compare and assess model performance. Performance metrics have been used to show that some models reproduce present-day climate better than others. Simulation data from multiple models are often used to add value to projections by creating a consensus projection from the model ensemble, in which each model is given an equal weight. It has been shown that the ensemble mean generally outperforms any single model. It is possible to use unequal weights to produce ensemble means, in which models are weighted based on performance (called "intelligent" ensembles). Can performance metrics be used to improve climate projections? Previous work introduced a framework for comparing the utility of model performance metrics, showing that the best metrics are related to the variance of top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation. These metrics improve present-day climate simulations of Earth's energy budget using the "intelligent" ensemble method. The current project identifies several approaches for testing whether performance metrics can be applied to future simulations to create "intelligent" ensemble-mean climate projections. It is shown that certain performance metrics test key climate processes in the models, and that these metrics can be used to evaluate model quality in both current and future climate states. This information will be used to produce new consensus projections and provide communities with improved climate projections for urgent decision-making.
Baker, Noel C.↗
Low-Level Jets and the Convergence of Mars Data Assimilation Algorithms
Data assimilation is an increasingly popular technique in Mars atmospheric science, but its effect on the mean states of the underlying atmosphere models has not been thoroughly examined. The robustness of results to the choice of model and assimilation algorithm also warrants further study. We investigate these issues using two Mars general circulation models (MGCMs), with particular emphasis on zonal wind and temperature fields. When temperature retrievals from the Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) are assimilated into the U.K.-Laboratoire de M ́et ́eorologie Dynamique (UK-LMD) MGCM to create the Mars Analysis Correction Data Assimilation (MACDA) reanalysis, low-level zonal jets in the winter northern hemisphere shift equatorward and weaken relative to a free-running control simulation from the same MGCM. The Ensemble Mars Atmosphere Reanalysis System (EMARS) reanalysis, which is also based on TES temperature retrievals, also shows jet weakening (but less if any shifting) relative to a control simulation performed with the underlying Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) MGCM. Examining higher levels of the atmosphere, monthly mean three-dimensional temperature and zonal wind fields are in generally better agreement between the two reanalyses than between the two control simulations. In conjunction with information about the MGCMs’ physical parametrizations, intercomparisons between the various reanalyses and control simulations suggest that overall the EMARS control run is plausibly less biased (relative to the true state of the Martian atmosphere) than the MACDA control run. Implications for future observational studies are discussed. Plain Language Summary An increasingly popular way to study Martian weather and climate is to combine atmospheric temperature observations with a computer model (specifically, a global climate model). The process of combining model and observations is called “data assimilation”, and the resulting merged data set is called a “reanalysis”. One advantage of reanalyses is that they include variables (such as wind) that are not directly observed. For scientific and practical applications we want these variables to be reasonably accurate— however, it is not clear how well data assimilation algorithms compute them. Our study investigates this issue using two Mars reanalyses and two model simulations that do not assimilate temperature data. We focus on slowly-varying atmospheric phenomena (timescales from 10 Mars days to a season). Assimilating temperature data into two different global climate models changes the strength and/or spatial pattern of east-west winds at low altitudes. Furthermore, monthly mean three-dimensional temperature and east-west wind fields agree better between reanalyses than between non-assimilating model simulations. This suggests that the data assimilation process is basically successful. One non-assimilating model simulation has less realistic representations of atmospheric physical processes than the other—we argue that this plausibly gives it larger biases relative to the true state of the atmosphere.
Todd A Mooring↗
Orbital Trade Study for the PREFIRE Mission
The Polar Radiant Energy in the Far-Infrared Experiment (PREFIRE) is a low-cost cubesat-based Earth Science mission selected for rapid implementation through NASAs Earth Ventures-Instrument program. Two cubesats carrying thermal infrared spectrometers (TIRS) in polar orbits will test long-held assumptions regarding radiative balance at long wavelengths where the cold-dry Arctic and Antarctic surfaces expel significant amounts of the earth's radiant energy. Thermal radiometry with better than one micron sampling at wavelengths beyond 15 microns will provide critical observational bounds for inputs into glacier melt and climate change models through improvements in surface emissivities, longwave greenhouse effect parameterizations, and cloud presence/types. Additional information on potential far-infrared surface/atmosphere feedbacks during rapid melt processes may be captured with sub-diurnal revisits of targeted areas. A baseline mission with two cubesats in different orbits provides a means for optimization of sub-diurnal sampling for science purposes. In this presentation we provide details of orbit studies that inform expected sampling metrics. Candidate orbits are modeled in SGP and then TIRS sampling is projected into surface footprints with appropriate geo-location. Matching algorithms then compile statistics for time-delayed revisits between and within the two orbits. Binning of results by latitude allows for abstraction of precession issues as well as for correlations with surface types as defined by radiometric classification schemes. Multiple acceptable pairs of science-driven orbits were found that optimize sampling in areas known to experience rapid melt events. The final choice of PREFIRE orbital parameters includes the systems trade-space, particularly the power budget, as well as the availability of launch opportunities.
"L'Ecuyer, Tristan"↗
Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region: Modeled Productivity in Permafrost Regions
Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246 ± 6 g C m -2 yr -1 ), most models produced higher NPP (309 ± 12 g C m -2 yr -1 ) over the permafrost region during 2000–2009. By comparing the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) with a flux tower-based database, we found that although mean GPP among the models was only overestimated by 10% over 1982–2009, there was a twofold discrepancy among models (380 to 800 g C m -2 yr -1 ), which mainly resulted from differences in simulated maximum monthly GPP (GPP max ). Most models overestimated C use efficiency (CUE) as compared to observations at both regional and site levels. Further analysis shows that model variability of GPP and CUE are nonlinearly correlated to variability in specific leaf area and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25°C (Vc max_25 ), respectively. The models also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO 2 concentration. In conclusion, these results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPP max as well as their sensitivity to climate change.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Changes in Spatiotemporal Precipitation Patterns in Changing Climate Conditions
Climate models robustly imply that some significant change in precipitation patterns will occur. Models consistently project that the intensity of individual precipitation events increases by approximately 6-7%/K, following the increase in atmospheric water content, but that total precipitation increases by a lesser amount (2-3%/K in the global average). Some other aspect of precipitation events must then change to compensate for this difference. We develop here a new methodology for identifying individual rainstorms and studying their physical characteristics - including starting location, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and trajectory - that allows identifying that compensating mechanism. We apply this technique to precipitation over the contiguous U.S. from both radar-based data products and high-resolution model runs simulating 100 years of business-as-usual warming. In model studies, we find that the dominant compensating mechanism is a reduction of storm size. In summer, rainstorms become more intense but smaller; in winter, rainstorm shrinkage still dominates, but storms also become less numerous and shorter duration. These results imply that flood impacts from climate change will be less severe than would be expected from changes in precipitation intensity alone. We show also that projected changes are smaller than model-observation biases, implying that the best means of incorporating them into impact assessments is via "data-driven simulations" that apply model-projected changes to observational data. We therefore develop a simulation algorithm that statistically describes model changes in precipitation characteristics and adjusts data accordingly, and show that, especially for summertime precipitation, it outperforms simulation approaches that do not include spatial information.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Reducing Model Uncertainty of Climate Change Impacts on High Latitude Carbon Assimilation
The Arctic Boreal Region (ABR) has a large impact on global vegetation-atmosphere interactions and is experiencing markedly greater warming than the rest of the planet, a trend that is projected to continue with anticipated future emissions of CO 2 . The ABR is a significant source of uncertainty in estimates of carbon uptake in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) such that reducing this uncertainty is critical for more accurately estimating global carbon cycling and understanding the response of the region to global change. Process representation and parameterization associated with gross primary productivity (GPP) drives a large amount of this model uncertainty, particularly within the next 50 years, where the response of existing vegetation to climate change will dominate estimates of GPP for the region. Furthermore, we review our current understanding and model representation of GPP in northern latitudes, focusing on vegetation composition, phenology and physiology, and consider how climate change alters these three components. We highlight challenges in the ABR for predicting GPP, but also focus on the unique opportunities for advancing knowledge and model representation, particularly through the combination of remote sensing and traditional boots-on-the-ground science.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Integrated modeling for assessing climate change impacts on water resources and hydropower potential in the Himalayas
Regional hydroclimatic variability and change can affect water resources and hydropower generation. It is essential to assess hydropower potential under current and future climatic conditions to inform the design and operation of hydropower infrastructures. Here, we employ an integrated modeling framework to assess the impact of projected hydroclimatic conditions on water resource systems and hydropower generation. The integrated framework samples climate model outputs under different scenarios to force a hydrologic model and produces streamflow projections. The projected streamflows are inputs for the future hydropower potential assessment. We implement the framework in the central Himalayan river basin. Our results demonstrate substantial spatiotemporal variability in different water balance components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, and water yield) under current and future climatic conditions. For the Himalayan Tila river basin, the annual average energy production is expected to increase under future hydroclimatic conditions (up to 39% in Tila-2 hydropower project, suggested by ensemble mean). Furthermore, this increase in energy is driven mainly by the increased streamflow projections, particularly during the dry season and in the late century. Our results highlight the impacts of hydroclimatic variability in hydropower productions and are of practical use to provide decision-relevant information for designing and operating hydropower infrastructures. The integrated modeling framework presented here is region-specific; however, the approach is reproducible, and the overall insights are generalizable across the Himalayan region.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗