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NASA NTRS2023

Wildfire Adaptation in the Russian Arctic: A Systematic Policy Review

A scientific consensus acknowledges that climate change has increased wildfire activity in the Russian Arctic, a trend projected to continue in response to further warming. Regional governments across Russia have started to design and develop adaptation policies and plans (i.e. outputs) to this end. Our comprehensive understanding on the state of wildfire adaptation in policy is limited. In this article we systematically review policies and plans developed to adapt to wildfires in the Russian Arctic. Using systematic approaches, we identify 12 wildfire adaptation outputs adopted between 2008 and 2020. Our findings indicate that wildfire adaptation outputs are aimed at reducing the risk of wildfires and improve wildland fire response, implemented through legislative and regulatory mechanisms, developed at the regional level, adopted in response to national mandates, and mainstreamed into existing forest management policies. Although there is evidence of wildfire adaptation planning occurring in the Russian Arctic, we find that the nature and extent of wildfire adaptation outputs are not sufficient to address the seriousness and severity of climate change, with key shortcomings found in relation to the scientific, human, and management characteristics. We argue that expanding the profile of climate change research in the Russian Arctic and improving the dialogue among researchers, local and Indigenous peoples, and decision-makers are critical for providing useful recommendations for policy makers to accelerate wildfire adaptation in the Russian Arctic.

Wildfire↗
NASA NTRS2014

The AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP): Methods and Protocols

Climate change is expected to alter a multitude of factors important to agricultural systems, including pests, diseases, weeds, extreme climate events, water resources, soil degradation, and socio-economic pressures. Changes to carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water (CTW) will be the primary drivers of change in crop growth and agricultural systems. Therefore, establishing the CTW-change sensitivity of crop yields is an urgent research need and warrants diverse methods of investigation. Crop models provide a biophysical, process-based tool to investigate crop responses across varying environmental conditions and farm management techniques, and have been applied in climate impact assessment by using a variety of methods (White et al., 2011, and references therein). However, there is a significant amount of divergence between various crop models' responses to CTW changes (Rotter et al., 2011). While the application of a site-based crop model is relatively simple, the coordination of such agricultural impact assessments on larger scales requires consistent and timely contributions from a large number of crop modelers, each time a new global climate model (GCM) scenario or downscaling technique is created. A coordinated, global effort to rapidly examine CTW sensitivity across multiple crops, crop models, and sites is needed to aid model development and enhance the assessment of climate impacts (Deser et al., 2012). To fulfill this need, the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP) (Ruane et al., 2014) was initiated within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; Rosenzweig et al., 2013). The submitted results from C3MP Phase 1 (February 15, 2013-December 31, 2013) are currently being analyzed. This chapter serves to present and update the C3MP protocols, discuss the initial participation and general findings, comment on needed adjustments, and describe continued and future development. AgMIP aims to improve substantially the climate, crop, and economic simulation tools that are used to characterize the agricultural sector, to assess future world food security under changing climate conditions, and to enhance adaptation capacity both globally and regionally. To understand better and improve the modeled crop responses, AgMIP has conducted detailed crop model intercomparisons at closely observed field sites for wheat (Asseng et al., 2013), rice (Li et al., in review), maize (Bassu et al., 2014), and sugarcane (Singels et al., 2013). A coordinated modeling exercise was one of the original motivations for AgMIP, and C3MP provides rapid estimation of crop responses to CO2, water, and temperature (CTW) changes, adding dimension and insight into the crop model intercomparisons, while facilitating interactions within the global community of modelers. C3MP also contributes a fast-track, multi-model climate sensitivity assessment for the AgMIP climate and crop modeling teams on Research Track 2 (Fig. 1), which seeks to understand the impact of projected climatic changes on crop production and food security (Rosenzweig et al., 2013; Ruane et al., 2014).

agriculture↗
NASA NTRS2019

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 2: New Methods for Assessing Extreme Temperatures, Heavy Downpours, and Drought

This New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC3) chapter builds on the projections developed by the second New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC2) (Horton et al., 2015). It confirms NPCC2 projections as those of record for the City of New York, presents new methodology related to climate extremes, and describes new methods for developing the next generation of climate projections for the New York metropolitan region. These may be used by the City of New York as it continues to develop flexible adaptation pathways to cope with climate change. The main topics of the climate science chapter are: (1) Comparison of observed temperature and precipitation trends to NPCC2 2015 projections. (2) New methodology for analysis of historical and future projections of heatwaves, humidity, and cold snaps. (3) Improved characterization of observed heavy downpours. (4) Characterization of observed drought using paleoclimate data. (5) Suggested methods for next generation climate risk information.

Gonzalez, Jorge E.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Real Options Analysis for Valuation of Climate Adaptation Pathways With Application to Transit Infrastructure

Climate change and sea level rise (SLR) are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of coastal flood events, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructure. While regional climate adaptation investments can provide substantive flood protection, existing plans often neglect uncertainty in future climate conditions and adaptation performance, consequently neglecting the option value of flexibly implementing proposed projects. Addressing this gap, we develop and employ a generalizable real options analysis (ROA) valuation framework that considers how uncertainty in adaptation project costs, SLR, flood severity, and flood losses inform the full range of adaptation performance outcomes. We further propose and apply a novel, computationally efficient flood loss sampling algorithm to estimate the consequences of randomly arriving coastal flood events. We apply this ROA framework to assess the option value of flexibly timing adaptation investments over time, investigating an adaptation pathway proposed by the City of Boston from the perspective of the regional transit system manager. Our results suggest that flexible implementation can provide significant option value in the near-to mid-term(>30 years), with highest option values under low-probability, high consequence scenarios. Our results also suggest adaptation pathway performance in the latter half of the 21stcenturyis most sensitive to uncertainty in sea level rise, flood loss estimates, and flood frequency, underscoring the importance of uncertainty quantification in the long-term valuation of adaptation investments.

Michael V. Martello↗
NASA NTRS2011

NASA Water Resources Program

With increasing population pressure and water usage coupled with climate variability and change, water issues are being reported by numerous groups as the most critical environmental problems facing us in the 21st century. Competitive uses and the prevalence of river basins and aquifers that extend across boundaries engender political tensions between communities, stakeholders and countries. In addition to the numerous water availability issues, water quality related problems are seriously affecting human health and our environment. The potential crises and conflicts especially arise when water is competed among multiple uses. For example, urban areas, environmental and recreational uses, agriculture, and energy production compete for scarce resources, not only in the Western U.S. but throughout much of the U.S. and also in numerous parts of the world. Mitigating these conflicts and meeting water demands and needs requires using existing water resources more efficiently. The NASA Water Resources Program Element works to use NASA products and technology to address these critical water issues. The primary goal of the Water Resources is to facilitate application of NASA Earth science products as a routine use in integrated water resources management for the sustainable use of water. This also includes the extreme events of drought and floods and the adaptation to the impacts from climate change. NASA satellite and Earth system observations of water and related data provide a huge volume of valuable data in both near-real-time and extended back nearly 50 years about the Earth's land surface conditions such as precipitation, snow, soil moisture, water levels, land cover type, vegetation type, and health. NASA Water Resources Program works closely to use NASA and Earth science data with other U.S. government agencies, universities, and non-profit and private sector organizations both domestically and internationally. The NASA Water Resources Program organizes its projects under five functional themes. I) Streamflow and Flood Forecasting 2) Water Supply and Irrigation (includes evapotranspiration) 3) Drought 4) Water Quality 5) Climate and Water Resources. To maximize this activity NASA Water Resources Program works closely with other government agencies (e.g., the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA); the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), USAID, the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA)), universities, non-profit national and international organizations, and the private sector. The NASA Water Resources program currently is funding 21 active projects under the functional themes (http://wmp.gsfc.nasa.gov & http://science.nasa.gov/earth-science/applied-sciences/).

Toll, David L.↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project: Phase I Activities by a Global Community of Science

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) was founded in 2010. Its mission is to improve substantially the characterization of world food security as affected by climate variability and change, and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. The objectives of AgMIP are to: Incorporate state-of-the-art climate, crop/livestock, and agricultural economic model improvements into coordinated multi-model regional and global assessments of future climate impacts and adaptation and other key aspects of the food system. Utilize multiple models, scenarios, locations, crops/livestock, and participants to explore uncertainty and the impact of data and methodological choices. Collaborate with regional experts in agronomy, animal sciences, economics, and climate to build a strong basis for model applications, addressing key climate related questions and sustainable intensification farming systems. Improve scientific and adaptive capacity in modeling for major agricultural regions in the developing and developed world, with a focus on vulnerable regions. Improve agricultural data and enhance data-sharing based on their intercomparison and evaluation using best scientific practices. Develop modeling frameworks to identify and evaluate promising adaptation technologies and policies and to prioritize strategies.

farm crops↗
NASA NTRS2014

Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities

Heat is among the deadliest weather-related phenomena in the United States, and the number of heat-related deaths may increase under a changing climate, particularly in urban areas. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. This study presents an assessment of the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in 12 cities using 16 global climate models, driven by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Although the magnitude of the projected heat effects was found to differ across time, cities, climate models and greenhouse pollution emissions scenarios, climate change was projected to result in increases in heat-related fatalities over time throughout the 21st century in all of the 12 cities included in this study. The increase was more substantial under the high emission pathway, highlighting the potential benefits to public health of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 200,000 heat-related deaths are projected to occur in the 12 cities by the end of the century due to climate warming, over 22,000 of which could be avoided if we follow a low GHG emission pathway. The presented estimates can be of value to local decision makers and stakeholders interested in developing strategies to reduce these impacts and building climate change resilience.

heat-related mortality↗
NASA NTRS2008

Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

This slide presentation reviews some of the effects that global change has on urban areas in the United States and how the growth of urban areas will affect the environment. It presents the elements of our Synthesis and Assessment Report (SAP) report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e.g. public health, urban planning for mitigation strategies) on how cities can cope and adapt to climate change and variability. This latter point parallels the concepts and ideas presented in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Survey report on "Earth Science Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond" wherein the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability, human health, and land use change are listed as key areas for development of future Earth observing remote sensing systems.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Space Technologies for Enhancing the Resilience and Sustainability of Indigenous Reindeer Husbandry in the Russian Arctic

To adapt successfully to the major changes - climate, environment, economic, social and industrial - which have taken place across the Arctic. in recent years, indigenous communities such as reindeer herders must become increasingly empowered with the best available technologies to add to their storehouse of traditional knowledge. Remotely-sensed data and observations are providing increased capabilities for monitoring, risk mapping, and surveillance of parameters critical to the characterization of pasture quality and migratory routes, such as vegetation distribution, snow cover, infrastructure development, and pasture damages due to fires. This paper describes a series of remote sensing capabilities, which are useful to reindeer husbandry, and gives the results of the first year of a project, "Reindeer Mapper", which is a remote sensing and GIs-based system to bring together space technologies with indigenous knowledge for sustainable reindeer husbandry in the Russian Arctic. In this project, reindeer herders and scientists are joining together to utilize technologies to create a system for collecting and sharing space-based and indigenous knowledge in the Russian Arctic. The "Reindeer Mapper" system will help make technologies more readily available to the herder community for observing, data collection and analysis, monitoring, sharing, communications, and dissemination of information - to be integrated with traditional, local knowledge. This paper describes some of the technologies which comprise the system including an intranet system to enable to the team members to work together and share information electronically, remote sensing data for monitoring environmental parameters important to reindeer husbandry (e.g., SAR, Landsat, AVHRR, MODIS), indigenous knowledge about important environmental parameters, acquisition of ground- based measurements, and the integration of all useful data sets for more informed decision-making.

Maynard, Nancy G.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Action Pathways for Transforming Cities

Transformation is required for cities to fulfil their leadership potential on climate change. Five action pathways can guide them: integrate mitigation and adaptation; coordinate risk reduction and climate adaptation; cogenerate risk information; focus on disadvantaged populations; and improve governance and knowledge networks.

Civil engineering↗
NASA NTRS2017

Towards a New Food System Assessment: AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of Climate Change

Agricultural stakeholders need more credible information on which to base adaptation and mitigation policy decisions. In order to provide this, we must improve the rigor of agricultural modelling. Ensemble approaches can be used to address scale issues and integrated teams can overcome disciplinary silos. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of Climate Change and Food Security (CGRA) has the goal to link agricultural systems models using common protocols and scenarios to significantly improve understanding of climate effects on crops, livestock and livelihoods across multiple scales. The AgMIP CGRA assessment brings together experts in climate, crop, livestock, economics, and food security to develop Protocols to guide the process throughout the assessment. Scenarios are designed to consistently combine elements of intertwined storylines of future society including, socioeconomic development, greenhouse gas concentrations, and specific pathways of agricultural sector development. Through these approaches, AgMIP partners around the world are providing an evidence base for their stakeholders as they make decisions and investments.

Ensembles↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AgMIP Local, National and Global Assessments of Food System Challenges in A Changing Climate

Food systems connect a diverse network of stakeholders around the world, with complex dynamics governing production, processing, transportation, trade and consumption of food products. Extreme conditions can disrupt multiple components of the food system, with systemic connections providing structure that can both buffer and exacerbate risks. Climate change is shifting current practices in agricultural production and the broader food system, encouraging shifts toward more diverse value chains capable of drawing from multiple food producing regions to reduce the chance that an entire value chain be subject to simultaneous impacts. The IPCC Working Group I report assessed that heat waves, fires, floods and severe storms are becoming more pronounced and widespread with each degree of global warming, increasing food system risk. Food system disruptions can also come from outside the climate system, including from viral outbreaks, geopolitical conflict and socioeconomic changes. This presentation will highlight how the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) develops modeling approaches that connect climate, biophysical and socioeconomic models in order to capture complex responses of the food system and potential interventions by diverse stakeholders in the public and private sectors. Models are applied on a range of scales that match decision contexts. These include households in specific agricultural production regions (e.g., within a country), national-level policymakers considering policies, sustainability and development priorities for a country’s agricultural sector, and global food market models that balance production and consumption around the world with competition for land, water, energy and sustainability priorities. Models are capable of capturing many important responses, but further development is needed to represent key systemic risks and the possibility for additional interventions beyond the farm gate. Improved food system models will provide important insights into our society’s ability to cope with climate change, as well as our ability to identify agricultural adaptation and mitigation opportunities to reduce overall risk.

Food systems↗
NASA NTRS2011

Applying Geospatial Technologies for International Development and Public Health: The USAID/NASA SERVIR Program

Background: SERVIR -- the Regional Visualization and Monitoring System -- helps people use Earth observations and predictive models based on data from orbiting satellites to make timely decisions that benefit society. SERVIR operates through a network of regional hubs in Mesoamerica, East Africa, and the Hindu Kush-Himalayas. USAID and NASA support SERVIR, with the long-term goal of transferring SERVIR capabilities to the host countries. Objective/Purpose: The purpose of this presentation is to describe how the SERVIR system helps the SERVIR regions cope with eight areas of societal benefit identified by the Group on Earth Observations (GEO): health, disasters, ecosystems, biodiversity, weather, water, climate, and agriculture. This presentation will describe environmental health applications of data in the SERVIR system, as well as ongoing and future efforts to incorporate additional health applications into the SERVIR system. Methods: This presentation will discuss how the SERVIR Program makes environmental data available for use in environmental health applications. SERVIR accomplishes its mission by providing member nations with access to geospatial data and predictive models, information visualization, training and capacity building, and partnership development. SERVIR conducts needs assessments in partner regions, develops custom applications of Earth observation data, and makes NASA and partner data available through an online geospatial data portal at SERVIRglobal.net. Results: Decision makers use SERVIR to improve their ability to monitor air quality, extreme weather, biodiversity, and changes in land cover. In past several years, the system has been used over 50 times to respond to environmental threats such as wildfires, floods, landslides, and harmful algal blooms. Given that the SERVIR regions are experiencing increased stress under larger climate variability than historic observations, SERVIR provides information to support the development of adaptation strategies for nations affected by climate change. Conclusions: SERVIR is a platform for collaboration and cross-agency coordination, international partnerships, and delivery of web-based geospatial information services and applications. SERVIR makes a variety of geospatial data available for use in studies of environmental health outcomes.

Hemmings, Sarah↗
NASA NTRS2019

Global Crop Production: Adaptation to Temperature Increase Is Possible by Maintaining the Current Growing Periods

Increasing temperature trends are expected to impact yields of major field crops by affecting various plant processes, such as phenology and growth. However, future projections, especially at the global scale, do not consider any agronomic adaptation in farming practices. We use an ensemble of seven Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs) contributing to the AgMIP-Gridded project to quantify the impacts and adaptation potential of field crops under increasing temperature. We study how uniform warming scenarios up to 6 K affect the productivity and growing period duration of five major crops. The design of the experiment aims at understanding adaptation measures targeted to temperature-driven impacts and therefore leaves out changes in any other climate variable. We find that, without adaptation the dominant effect of temperature increase is to shorten the growing period and to reduce yields and production, consistently across crops and regions. We then test the potential of two agronomic measures to contrast warming-induced yield reduction, assuming that (i) cultivars with adjusted phenology would be used to regain the reference growing period duration; (ii) rainfed systems would be converted to irrigated. Despite substantial uncertainties in model parametrization and little agreement in spatial patterns, at the global aggregation, model results are robust. We find that up to 3 K of temperature increase, production losses could be fully compensated by maintaining the original crop growing period. Irrigation would also compensate production losses, but would not reduce the temperature impacts. Across regions, the model ensemble estimates larger adaptation potentials from unchanged growing periods in continental and temperate regions, than in tropical and arid regions, where also irrigation has respectively little effects and availability.

Irrigation↗
NASA NTRS2023

Unalakleet Climate: Analyzing Permafrost Degradation and Drainage Networks in Unalakleet, Alaska

The coastal community of Unalakleet is currently the 8th most at-risk community in Alaska due to the adverse effects of climate change that include permafrost degradation, severe coastal erosion, and sea-level rise-induced flood inundation caused by increasingly frequent storm surges. In response, the community has started a managed relocation with support from the Native Village of Unalakleet (NVU) and the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL)’s Alaska campus in Fairbanks. The Unalakleet Climate NASA DEVELOP team partnered with NREL to provide remote sensing support and analysis for resilience planning in Unalakleet, supporting their ongoing relocation efforts and guiding future expansion. The team utilized Sentinel-1 C-Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), WorldView-2, and WorldView-3 datasets from 2017 – 2023 to analyze seasonal summer subsidence and utilized a 2014 Ancillary USGS 5 m Alaska DEM to conduct drainage network analyses that included watershed delineation and Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND) analysis. The team also used high-resolution WorldView images to locate stable reference points that served as quality control for the team’s analyses. The team’s end products included maps containing subsidence and drainage zones information at and surrounding the relocation site. The team’s products provide NREL with valuable data that enables them to better assist Unalakleet’s managed relocation and assists Unalakleet with adapting to the catastrophic effects of climate change and build resilience in a community on the front lines of climate change.

Ian Lee↗
NASA NTRS2014

Assessing Agricultural Risks of Climate Change in the 21st Century in a Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison

Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

agriculture↗
NASA NTRS2014

Identification of Flights for Cost-Efficient Climate Impact Reduction

The aircraft-induced climate impact has drawn attention in recent years. Aviation operations affect the environment mainly through the release of carbon-dioxide, nitrogen-oxides, and by the formation of contrails. Recent research has shown that altering trajectories can reduce aviation environmental cost by reducing Absolute Global Temperature Change Potential, a climate assessment metric that adapts a linear system for modeling the global temperature response to aviation emissions and contrails. However, these methods will increase fuel consumption that leads to higher fuel costs imposed on airlines. The goal of this work is to identify ights for which the environmental cost of climate impact reduction outweighs the increase in operational cost on an individual aircraft basis. Environmental cost is quanti ed using the monetary social cost of carbon. The increase in operational cost is considering cost of additional fuel usage only. For this paper, an algorithm has been developed that modi es the trajectories of ights to evaluate the e ect of environ- mental cost and operational cost of ights in the United States National Airspace System. The algorithm identi es ights for which the environmental cost of climate impact can be reduced and modi es their trajectories to achieve maximum environmental net bene t, which is the di erence between reduction in environmental cost and additional operational cost. The result shows on a selected day, 16% of the ights among eight major airlines, or 2,043 ights, can achieve environmental net bene t using weather forecast data, resulting in net bene t of around $500,000. The result also suggests that the long-haul ights would be better candidates for cost-ecient climate impact reduction than the short haul ights. The algorithm will help to identify the characteristics of ights that are capable of applying cost-ecient climate impact reduction strategy.

climate impact reduction↗