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Results for “Combined Uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Parton physics from a heavy-quark operator product expansion: Lattice QCD calculation of the fourth moment of the pion distribution amplitude

The pion light-cone distribution amplitude (LCDA) is an essential nonperturbative input for a range of high-energy exclusive processes in quantum chromodynamics. Building on our previous work, the continuum limit of the fourth Mellin moment of the pion LCDA is determined in quenched QCD using quark masses which correspond to a pion mass of 𝑚 𝜋 = 550 MeV. This calculation finds ⟨𝜉 2 ⟩ = 0.202⁢(8)⁢(9) and ⟨𝜉 4 ⟩ = 0.039⁢(28)⁢(11) where the first error indicates the combined statistical and systematic uncertainty from the analysis and the second indicates the uncertainty from working with Wilson coefficients computed to next-to-leading order. These results are presented in the $\overline{\textrm{MS}}$ scheme at a renormalization scale of 𝜇 = 2 GeV.

Detmold, William [Massachusetts Inst. of Technolog↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simultaneous prediction of structural properties in epitaxially–grown GaN with quantum and conventional multi–output learning algorithms

Hundreds of GaN thin film crystal plasma–assisted molecular beam epitaxy synthesis experiment records spanning two decades were organized into a dataset correlating the growth experiment design parameters with discrete, binary determinations of crystallinity and surface morphology. Conventional data science techniques as well as both quantum and classical multi–output supervised machine learning algorithms were implemented to investigate the relationships between the operating parameter data and the structural figures of merit. Correlation coefficients, decision tree nodes, p–values, and SHAP values all support substrate temperature and gallium effusion cell conditions as being statistically significant for simultaneously influencing GaN crystallinity and surface morphology. Here, a conventional deep neural network learned best from the data, followed by a quantum–classical hybrid gradient boosting algorithm. When combined with calculations of uncertainty intervals based on VennAbers predictors, machine learning predictions of both structural properties show good agreement with results reported in published experimental literature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Results from the Muon g-2 experiment at Fermilab

The goal of the Muon g-2 experiment at Fermilab is to measure the muon magnetic momentanomaly with a final accuracy of 140 parts per billion (ppb). The experiment has published tworesults based on the data collected in 2018 (Run-1) and 2019-2020 (Run-2/3), respectively. These results confirm the previous measurement performed 20 years ago at Brookhaven National Laboratory, and their combination reaches the unprecedented uncertainty of 200 ppb. This proceeding presents a brief overview of the Standard Model prediction for the muon g-2. It then summarizes the experimental measurement technique and the Run-1 and Run-2/3 measurements, detailing the improvements in their systematic and statistical uncertainties. Finally, it illustrates the comparison between theory and experiment and discusses future prospects.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Explainable and trustworthy artificial intelligence for correctable modeling in chemical sciences

Data science has primarily focused on big data, but for many physics, chemistry, and engineering applications, data are often small, correlated and, thus, low dimensional, and sourced from both computations and experiments with various levels of noise. Typical statistics and machine learning methods do not work for these cases. Expert knowledge is essential, but a systematic framework for incorporating it into physics-based models under uncertainty is lacking. Here, we develop a mathematical and computational framework for probabilistic artificial intelligence (AI)–based predictive modeling combining data, expert knowledge, multiscale models, and information theory through uncertainty quantification and probabilistic graphical models (PGMs). We apply PGMs to chemistry specifically and develop predictive guarantees for PGMs generally. Our proposed framework, combining AI and uncertainty quantification, provides explainable results leading to correctable and, eventually, trustworthy models. The proposed framework is demonstrated on a microkinetic model of the oxygen reduction reaction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Time of Emergence and Large Ensemble Intercomparison for Ocean Biogeochemical Trends

Anthropogenically forced changes in ocean biogeochemistry are underway and critical for the ocean carbon sink and marine habitat. Detecting such changes in ocean biogeochemistry will require quantification of the magnitude of the change (anthropogenic signal) and the natural variability inherent to the climate system (noise). Here we use Large Ensemble (LE) experiments from four Earth system models (ESMs) with multiple emissions scenarios to estimate Time of Emergence (ToE) and partition projection uncertainty for anthropogenic signals in five biogeochemically important upper-ocean variables. We find ToEs are robust across ESMs for sea surface temperature and the invasion of anthropogenic carbon; emergence time scales are 20–30 yr. For the biological carbon pump, and sea surface chlorophyll and salinity, emergence time scales are longer (50+ yr), less robust across the ESMs, and more sensitive to the forcing scenario considered. We find internal variability uncertainty, and model differences in the internal variability uncertainty, can be consequential sources of uncertainty for projecting regional changes in ocean biogeochemistry over the coming decades. In combining structural, scenario, and internal variability uncertainty, this study represents the most comprehensive characterization of biogeochemical emergence time scales and uncertainty to date. Our findings delineate critical spatial and duration requirements for marine observing systems to robustly detect anthropogenic change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Redshift Calibration of the MagLim++ Lens Sample

In this work, we derive and calibrate the redshift distribution of the MagLim++ lens galaxy sample used in the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 (DES Y6) 3x2pt cosmology analysis. The 3x2pt analysis combines galaxy clustering from the lens galaxy sample and weak gravitational lensing. The redshift distributions are inferred using the SOMPZ method - a Self-Organizing Map framework that combines deep-field multi-band photometry, wide-field data, and a synthetic source injection (Balrog) catalog. Key improvements over the DES Year 3 (Y3) calibration include a noise-weighted SOM metric, an expanded Balrog catalogue, and an improved scheme for propagating systematic uncertainties, which allows us to generate O($10^8$) redshift realizations that collectively span the dominant sources of uncertainty. These realizations are then combined with independent clustering-redshift measurements via importance sampling. The resulting calibration achieves typical uncertainties on the mean redshift of 1-2%, corresponding to a 20-30% average reduction relative to DES Y3. We compress the $n(z)$ uncertainties into a small number of orthogonal modes for use in cosmological inference. Marginalizing over these modes leads to only a minor degradation in cosmological constraints. This analysis establishes the MagLim++ sample as a robust lens sample for precision cosmology with DES Y6 and provides a scalable framework for future surveys.

Giannini, G. [Chicago U., Astron. Astrophys. Ctr.;↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 results: Redshift calibration of the MagLim++ lens sample

In this work, we derive and calibrate the redshift distribution of the MagLim++ lens galaxy sample used in the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 (DES Y6) 3 x 2pt cosmology analysis. The 3 x 2pt analysis combines galaxy clustering from the lens galaxy sample and weak gravitational lensing. The redshift distributions are inferred using the SOMPZ method - a Self-Organizing Map framework that combines deep-field multi-band photometry, wide-field data, and a synthetic source injection ( B alrog) catalog. Key improvements over the DES Year 3 (Y3) calibration include a noise-weighted SOM metric, an expanded Balrog catalogue, and an improved scheme for propagating systematic uncertainties, which allows us to generate O(10 8 ) redshift realizations that collectively span the dominant sources of uncertainty. These realizations are then combined with independent clustering-redshift measurements via importance sampling. The resulting calibration achieves typical uncertainties on the mean redshift of 1-2%, corresponding to a 20-30% average reduction relative to DES Y3. We compress the n(z) uncertainties into a small number of orthogonal modes for use in cosmological inference. Marginalizing over these modes leads to only a minor degradation in cosmological constraints. Here, this analysis establishes the MagLim++ sample as a robust lens sample for precision cosmology with DES Y6 and provides a scalable framework for future surveys.

dark energy↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian force fields from active learning for simulation of inter-dimensional transformation of stanene

Abstract We present a way to dramatically accelerate Gaussian process models for interatomic force fields based on many-body kernels by mapping both forces and uncertainties onto functions of low-dimensional features. This allows for automated active learning of models combining near-quantum accuracy, built-in uncertainty, and constant cost of evaluation that is comparable to classical analytical models, capable of simulating millions of atoms. Using this approach, we perform large-scale molecular dynamics simulations of the stability of the stanene monolayer. We discover an unusual phase transformation mechanism of 2D stanene, where ripples lead to nucleation of bilayer defects, densification into a disordered multilayer structure, followed by formation of bulk liquid at high temperature or nucleation and growth of the 3D bcc crystal at low temperature. The presented method opens possibilities for rapid development of fast accurate uncertainty-aware models for simulating long-time large-scale dynamics of complex materials.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of a Framework for Data Integration, Assimilation, and Learning for Geological Carbon Sequestration (DIAL-GCS) (Final Report)

This project aimed to develop and demonstrate a Data Integration, Assimilation, and Learning framework for geologic carbon sequestration projects (DIAL-GCS). DIAL-GCS is an intelligence monitoring system (IMS) for automating GCS closed-loop management by leveraging recent developments in machine learning technologies, complex event processing (CEP), and reduced-order modeling. The safe and efficient operation of GCS repositories requires integrated monitoring to track the injected CO¬2 as it moves within a storage reservoir. GCS projects are data intensive, as a result of proliferation of digital instrumentation and smart-sensing technologies. GCS projects are also resource intensive, often requiring multidisciplinary teams performing different monitoring, verification, accounting (MVA) tasks throughout the lifecycle of a project to ensure secure containment of injected CO2. The success of GCS thus depends in a large part on our ability to access, assimilate, and analyze heterogeneous data and information sources in a timely manner. This project included a number of meaningful and necessary tasks to transform the human domain knowledge into machine-interpretable rules for automating knowledge extraction and discovery in GCS. The specific technical objectives of the proposed DIAL-GCS project were to develop an ontology-driven GCS data management module for storing, querying, and exchanging GCS data (both historic and live sensor data) from multiple sources and in heterogeneous formats. Incorporate a CEP engine for detecting abnormal situations by seamlessly combining expert knowledge, rule-based reasoning, and machine learning. Enable uncertainty quantification and predictive analytics using a combination of coupled-process modeling, AI/ML methods, and reduced-order modeling, and integrate and demonstrate the system’s capabilities with both real and simulated data. As far as we know, this is one of the first projects aimed to develop intelligent monitoring systems (IMS) targeting the GCS. Under this project, the team had developed a large number of web applications and scientific algorithms that contribute the main theme of intelligent monitoring. The team has published more than a dozen peer reviewed papers and disseminated the research results at multiple technical meetings.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Neural Density Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification for ChemCam Spectra [Slides]

The ChemCam instrument of Curiosity uses laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS). It fires a laser at target and vaporizes rock surfaces, creating a plasma. Three spectrographs divide the plasma light into wavelengths for chemical analysis: ultraviolet, violet, and visible near-infrared. Regression methods (SVR, PCR, CNN) have been employed for calibration (prediction of the elemental composition of samples); however, labeled ChemCam samples are limited. Here, we focus on unsupervised learning and employ generative models from ChemCam analysis. Further, we use labels (supervised) in combination to the generative model to compute uncertainties related to predictions. We report generative modeling can be successfully applied to model real-world data. Normalizing flow models can be efficiently constructed on latent spaces for fast downstream inference. Unsupervised and supervised learning can be combined to form an uncertainty quantification framework.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explainable discrepancy checker and diagnosis for digital Twin-based supervisory control system

By virtually representing a physical object and process, a digital twin (DT) enables optimal autonomous operations by combining classical and novel frameworks in sensors, state predictions, and multi-input/multi-output systems. A DT’s values depend on how well models estimate quantities of interest and on how uncertainty is handled. Moreover, DTs often combine physics-based and data-driven models with mixed fidelities, where classical uncertainty quantification (UQ) struggles with many sources of uncertainty and real-time constraints. Here, this work presents a UQ-based discrepancy checking and diagnosis tool for a DT-based supervisory control system. The tool is developed using metadata from an automated DT development process to learn correlations between sources of uncertainties and outcomes. During operation, it compares predictions with measurements, attributes discrepancies to dominant sources, and recommends parameter and configuration updates. We verify the workflow on a synthetic temperature-control problem and deploy it on a virtual Thermal Energy Delivery System, reducing mismatch and improving control robustness.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Visual‐Analytics Bridge Complexity and Accessibility for Robust Urban Water Planning

Urban water resources planning is complicated by unprecedented uncertainty in supply and demand. Real‐world planning often simplifies the full range of uncertainty faced by a system into a limited set of deterministic scenarios to enhance accessibility for decision‐makers and the public. However, overlooking uncertainty can expose the system to failures. On the other end of the spectrum, academically developed tools for scenario analysis rigorously quantify the combined effects of multiple sources of uncertainty, but the practical application of these models is limited by the challenges of information visualization and communication of results. In short, municipal water supply planners lack access to planning frameworks that effectively integrate a rigorous treatment of uncertainty with accessible, user‐friendly visual and interactive tools to enhance user accessibility. In this work, we fill this gap by proposing Visual‐Robust Decision Making, and demonstrate an application for the city of Santa Barbara (SB), CA. Santa Barbara faces multiple uncertainties from pending state and federal regulations to changing hydrology and water demand. The city seeks to increase its water portfolio robustness by expanding its seawater desalination plant, but must decide how much capacity to add. We introduce computational tools that assess uncertainty across nine uncertain drivers identified with the help of water planners in SB. To allow public participation in the desalination expansion decision, we develop interactive visual‐analytics to aid decision‐makers and stakeholders in navigating complex scenario analysis outcomes. Our results quantify the tradeoffs between increased capacity and system robustness and aim to enhance participation and uncertainty characterization of urban water planning efforts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying subsurface parameter and transport uncertainty using surrogate modelling and environmental tracers

Here, we combine physics-based groundwater reactive transport modelling with machine-learning techniques to quantify hydrogeological model and solute transport predictive uncertainties. We train an artificial neural network (ANN) on a dataset of groundwater hydraulic heads and 3 H concentrations generated using a high-fidelity groundwater reactive transport model. Using the trained ANN as a surrogate model to reproduce the input–output response of the high-fidelity reactive transport model, we quantify the posterior distributions of hydrogeological parameters and hydraulic forcing conditions using Markov chain Monte Carlo calibration against field observations of groundwater hydraulic heads and 3 H concentrations. We demonstrate the methodology with a model application that predicts Chlorofluorocarbon-12 (CFC-12) solute transport at a contaminated field site in Wyoming, United States. Our results show that including 3 H observations in the calibration dataset reduced the uncertainty in the estimated permeability field and infiltration rates, compared to calibration against hydraulic heads alone. However, predictive uncertainty quantification shows that CFC-12 transport predictions conditioned to the parameter posterior distributions cannot reproduce the field measurements. We found that calibrating the model to hydraulic head and 3 H observations results in groundwater mean ages that are too large to explain the observed CFC-12 concentrations. The coupling of the physics-based reactive transport model with the machine-learning surrogate model allows us to efficiently quantify model parameter and predictive uncertainties, which is typically computationally intractable using reactive transport models alone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Antiproton bounds on dark matter annihilation from a combined analysis using the DRAGON2 code

Abstract Early studies of the AMS-02 antiproton ratio identified a possible excess over the expected astrophysical background that could be fit by the annihilation of a weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP). However, recent efforts have shown that uncertainties in cosmic-ray propagation, the antiproton production cross-section, and correlated systematic uncertainties in the AMS-02 data, may combine to decrease or eliminate the significance of this feature. We produce an advanced analysis using the DRAGON2 code which, for the first time, simultaneously fits the antiproton ratio along with multiple secondary cosmic-ray flux measurements to constrain astrophysical and nuclear uncertainties. Compared to previous work, our analysis benefits from a combination of: (1) recently released AMS-02 antiproton data, (2) updated nuclear fragmentation cross-section fits, (3) a rigorous Bayesian parameter space scan that constrains cosmic-ray propagation parameters.We find no statistically significant preference for a dark matter signal and set strong constraints on WIMP annihilation tobb̅, ruling out annihilation at the thermal cross-section for dark matter masses below ∼ 200 GeV. We do find a positive residual that is consistent with previous work, and can be explained by a ∼ 70 GeV WIMP annihilating below the thermal cross-section. However, our default analysis finds this excess to have a local significance of only 2.8σ, which is decreased to 1.8σwhen the look-elsewhere effect is taken into account.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-based hybrid machine learning for critical heat flux prediction with uncertainty quantification

Critical heat flux (CHF) is a key quantity in nuclear system modeling due to its impact on heat transfer, safety margins, and reactor performance. This study develops and validates an uncertainty-aware hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning with physics-based models to predict CHF in cases of dryout. The Biasi and Bowring empirical correlations were paired with three ML uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques: deep neural network (DNN) ensembles, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), and deep Gaussian processes (DGPs). A pure ML model without a base model was evaluated for comparison. Model performance was assessed under plentiful (7,350 points) and limited (9 points) training data scenarios using parity, uncertainty distributions, and calibration curves. Results show that the Biasi hybrid DNN ensemble achieved the best overall performance, with a mean absolute relative error of 1.846%, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The BNN-based hybrids showed slightly higher error (2.14%) but superior uncertainty calibration. DGP models underperformed, with over 6% error and poor uncertainty calibration. All hybrid models outperformed pure machine learning configurations, demonstrating resistance against data scarcity. These findings indicate that hybrid modeling significantly improves predictive accuracy, interpretability, and resilience to data scarcity. The integration of uncertainty awareness provides actionable confidence in CHF predictions, which is vital for safety-critical decisions in nuclear applications. This hybrid approach offers a viable pathway for deploying ML models in reactor analysis tools while preserving domain knowledge and physical consistency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

High-throughput screening tools facilitate calculation of a combined exposure-bioactivity index for chemicals with endocrine activity

High-throughput and computational tools provide a new opportunity to calculate combined bioactivity of exposure to diverse chemicals acting through a common mechanism. We used high throughput in vitro bioactivity data and exposure predictions from the U.S. EPA’s Toxicity and Exposure Forecaster (ToxCast and ExpoCast) to estimate combined estrogen receptor (ER) agonist activity of non-pharmaceutical chemical exposures for the general U.S. population. High-throughput toxicokinetic (HTTK) data provide conversion factors that relate bioactive concentrations measured in vitro (µM), to predicted population geometric mean exposure rates (mg/kg/day). These data were available for 22 chemicals with ER agonist activity and were estimated for other ER bioactive chemicals based on the geometric mean of HTTK values across chemicals. For each chemical, ER bioactivity across ToxCast assays was compared to predicted population geometric mean exposure at different levels of in vitro potency and model certainty. Dose additivity was assumed in calculating a Combined Exposure-Bioactivity Index (CEBI), the sum of exposure/bioactivity ratios. Combined estrogen bioactivity was also calculated in terms of the percent maximum bioactivity of chemical mixtures in human plasma using a concentration-addition model. Estimated CEBIs vary greatly depending on assumptions used for exposure and bioactivity. In general, CEBI values were <1 when using median of the estimated general population chemical intake rates, while CEBI were ≥1 when using the upper 95th confidence bound for those same intake rates for all chemicals. Concentration-addition model predictions of mixture bioactivity yield comparable results. Based on current in vitro bioactivity data, HTTK methods, and exposure models, combined exposure scenarios sufficient to influence estrogen bioactivity in the general population cannot be ruled out. Future improvements in screening methods and computational models could reduce uncertainty and better inform the potential combined effects of estrogenic chemicals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effects of forest degradation classification on the uncertainty of aboveground carbon estimates in the Amazon

Tropical forests are critical for the global carbon budget, yet they have been threatened by deforestation and forest degradation by fire, selective logging, and fragmentation. Existing uncertainties on land cover classification and in biomass estimates hinder accurate attribution of carbon emissions to specific forest classes. In this study, we used textural metrics derived from PlanetScope images to implement a probabilistic classification framework to identify intact, logged and burned forests in three Amazonian sites. We also estimated biomass for these forest classes using airborne lidar and compared biomass uncertainties using the lidar-derived estimates only to biomass uncertainties considering the forest degradation classification as well. Our classification approach reached overall accuracy of 0.86, with accuracy at individual sites varying from 0.69 to 0.93. Logged forests showed variable biomass changes, while burned forests showed an average carbon loss of 35%. We found that including uncertainty in forest degradation classification significantly increased uncertainty and decreased estimates of mean carbon density in two of the three test sites. Our findings indicate that the attribution of biomass changes to forest degradation classes needs to account for the uncertainty in forest degradation classification. By combining very high-resolution images with lidar data, we could attribute carbon stock changes to specific pathways of forest degradation. This approach also allows quantifying uncertainties of carbon emissions associated with forest degradation through logging and fire. Both the attribution and uncertainty quantification provide critical information for national greenhouse gas inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimal Estimation Retrievals and Their Uncertainties: What Every Atmospheric Scientist Should Know

Remote sensing instruments are heavily used to provide observations for both the operational and research communities. These sensors do not provide direct observations of the desired atmospheric variables, but instead, retrieval algorithms are necessary to convert the indirect observations into the variable of interest. It is critical to be aware of the underlying assumptions made by many retrieval algorithms, including that the retrieval problem is often ill posed and that there are various sources of uncertainty that need to be treated properly. In short, the retrieval challenge is to invert a set of noisy observations to obtain estimates of atmospheric quantities. The problem is often complicated by imperfect forward models, by imperfect prior knowledge, and by the existence of nonunique solutions. Optimal estimation (OE) is a widely used physical retrieval method that combines measurements, prior information, and the corresponding uncertainties based on Bayes’s theorem to find an optimal solution for the atmospheric state. Furthermore, OE also allows the relative contributions of the different sources of error to the uncertainty in the final retrieved atmospheric state to be understood. Here, we provide a novel Python library to illustrate the use of OE for inverse problems in the atmospheric sciences. We introduce two example problems: how to retrieve drop size distribution parameters from radar observations and how to retrieve the temperature profile from ground-based microwave sensors. Using these examples, we discuss common pitfalls, how the various error sources impact the retrieval, and how the quality of the retrieval results can be quantified.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗