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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6

Embracing fine-root system complexity in terrestrial ecosystem modeling

Projecting the dynamics and functioning of the biosphere requires a holistic consideration of whole-ecosystem processes. However, biases toward leaf, canopy, and soil modeling since the 1970s have constantly left fine-root systems being rudimentarily treated. As accelerated empirical advances in the last two decades establish clearly functional differentiation conferred by the hierarchical structure of fine-root orders and associations with mycorrhizal fungi, a need emerges to embrace this complexity to bridge the data-model gap in still extremely uncertain models. In this work, we propose a three-pool structure comprising transport and absorptive fine roots with mycorrhizal fungi (TAM) to model vertically resolved fine-root systems across organizational and spatial–temporal scales. Emerging from a conceptual shift away from arbitrary homogenization, TAM builds upon theoretical and empirical foundations as an effective and efficient approximation that balances realism and simplicity. A proof-of-concept demonstration of TAM in a big-leaf model both conservatively and radically shows robust impacts of differentiation within fine-root systems on simulating carbon cycling in temperate forests. Theoretical and quantitative support warrants exploiting its rich potentials across ecosystems and models to confront uncertainties and challenges for a predictive understanding of the biosphere. Echoing a broad trend of embracing ecological complexity in integrative ecosystem modeling, TAM may offer a consistent framework where modelers and empiricists can work together toward this grand goal.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Reliability analysis of large, complex systems using ASSIST

The SURE reliability analysis program is discussed as well as the ASSIST model generation program. It is found that semi-Markov modeling using model reduction strategies with the ASSIST program can be used to accurately solve problems at least as complex as other reliability analysis tools can solve. Moreover, semi-Markov analysis provides the flexibility needed for modeling realistic fault-tolerant systems.

Johnson, Sally C.↗

A Comparison of Geographic Information Systems, Complex Networks, and Other Models for Analyzing Transportation Network Topologies

This report reviews six classes of models that are used for studying transportation network topologies. The report is motivated by two main questions. First, what can the "new science" of complex networks (scale-free, small-world networks) contribute to our understanding of transport network structure, compared to more traditional methods? Second, how can geographic information systems (GIS) contribute to studying transport networks? The report defines terms that can be used to classify different kinds of models by their function, composition, mechanism, spatial and temporal dimensions, certainty, linearity, and resolution. Six broad classes of models for analyzing transport network topologies are then explored: GIS; static graph theory; complex networks; mathematical programming; simulation; and agent-based modeling. Each class of models is defined and classified according to the attributes introduced earlier. The paper identifies some typical types of research questions about network structure that have been addressed by each class of model in the literature.

Alexandrov, Natalia↗

Space Launch System Complex Decision-Making Process

The Space Shuttle program has ended and elements of the Constellation Program have either been cancelled or transitioned to new NASA exploration endeavors. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has worked diligently to select an optimum configuration for the Space Launch System (SLS), a heavy lift vehicle that will provide the foundation for future beyond low earth orbit (LEO) large-scale missions for the next several decades. From Fall 2010 until Spring 2011, an SLS decision-making framework was formulated, tested, fully documented, and applied to multiple SLS vehicle concepts at NASA from previous exploration architecture studies. This was a multistep process that involved performing figure of merit (FOM)-based assessments, creating Pass/Fail gates based on draft threshold requirements, performing a margin-based assessment with supporting statistical analyses, and performing sensitivity analysis on each. This paper focuses on the various steps and methods of this process (rather than specific data) that allowed for competing concepts to be compared across a variety of launch vehicle metrics in support of the successful completion of the SLS Mission Concept Review (MCR) milestone.

Lyles, Garry↗

Simplified Worst-Case Analysis of Complex Systems

Statistical method avoids excessive computer time. Technique involves simplified Monte Carlo simulation of system with randomly chosen parameters and comparison of tolerance extremes of several of worst-case situations found. Resulting combination of tolerance extremes then used in detailed analysis - one that makes use of full complex nonlinear model capable of accurate simulations.

Pond, C. L.↗

Modeling and Performance Considerations for Automated Fault Isolation in Complex Systems

The purpose of this paper is to document the modeling considerations and performance metrics that were examined in the development of a large-scale Fault Detection, Isolation and Recovery (FDIR) system. The FDIR system is envisioned to perform health management functions for both a launch vehicle and the ground systems that support the vehicle during checkout and launch countdown by using suite of complimentary software tools that alert operators to anomalies and failures in real-time. The FDIR team members developed a set of operational requirements for the models that would be used for fault isolation and worked closely with the vendor of the software tools selected for fault isolation to ensure that the software was able to meet the requirements. Once the requirements were established, example models of sufficient complexity were used to test the performance of the software. The results of the performance testing demonstrated the need for enhancements to the software in order to meet the demands of the full-scale ground and vehicle FDIR system. The paper highlights the importance of the development of operational requirements and preliminary performance testing as a strategy for identifying deficiencies in highly scalable systems and rectifying those deficiencies before they imperil the success of the project

Ferrell, Bob↗

De Nive Quinquangula: Pentagonal Snowflake Metal Nanocrystals as an Example of Emergence Phenomenon in Nanotechnology Complex Systems

The formation of snowflakes (SFL) is one of the most captivating phenomena in nature. The fabrication of multimetallic gold (Au) nanoparticles containing copper (Cu) and iron (Fe) is reported, which adopt snowflake-like morphology after nanoparticle aggregation. The synthesis of these snowflake-like Au microcrystals occurs mainly by kinetic control. In this process, a surfactant-assisted salt reduction method is employed on a heated substrate. Here, the metal salts react within seconds to form nanoparticles. This process results in a hierarchical structure with pseudo-pentagonal symmetry and chiroptical activity. We discuss how large superstructures emerge from nanoparticle aggregation, resembling natural snowflakes. However, unlike ice snowflakes, which exhibit hexagonal symmetry, the Au snowflakes display pentagonal symmetry. It is proposed that the formation of these snowflake-like microcrystals is the result of the complexity involved in the crystal growth process and represents an example of the phenomenon of emergence, which has become very significant in several fields of modern science, including physics, biology, chemistry, economics, philosophy, and poetry. The term emergent is used to evoke the collective behavior of a large number of microscopic constituents that is qualitatively different than the behaviors of the individual constituents.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An iterative learning and inference approach to managing dynamic cyber-vulnerabilities of complex systems

As modern systems become increasingly reliant on cyber-technologies and continue to be integrated with physical systems, managing risks from deliberate and non-deliberate sources is a significant research challenge. Unlike strictly physical systems, cyber-enabled physical systems are influenced by dynamic and evolving technologies, environments, and attack mechanisms. As a result, vulnerabilities are rapidly changing and difficult to detect and manage. While there is recent interest in the dynamic properties of performance through resilience analysis, limited research addresses the dynamic nature of cyber-system vulnerability. This paper presents a dynamic iterative learning approach to evaluate the state of health for systems as related to cyber-vulnerabilities. These time-varying system health characteristics may not be visible, but can be inferred using observable characteristics. The approach recognizes that multiple types of vulnerabilities need to be included in a holistic system health assessment. The methods are applied to the Common Vulnerability Scoring System database containing over 100,000 documented cybersecurity vulnerabilities. This work is the first to acknowledge the dynamic properties of cyber-vulnerability, while also inferring system health using observable data and hidden states of system health. This work will be of interest to managers of large-scale cyber-enabled physical systems who are seeking to prioritize system health investments.

Chatterjee, Samrat↗

Nonequilibrium statistical mechanics and optimal prediction of partially-observed complex systems

Abstract Only a subset of degrees of freedom are typically accessible or measurable in real-world systems. As a consequence, the proper setting for empirical modeling is that of partially-observed systems. Notably, data-driven models consistently outperform physics-based models for systems with few observable degrees of freedom; e.g. hydrological systems. Here, we provide an operator-theoretic explanation for this empirical success. To predict a partially-observed system’s future behavior with physics-based models, the missing degrees of freedom must be explicitly accounted for using data assimilation and model parametrization. Data-driven models, in contrast, employ delay-coordinate embeddings and their evolution under the Koopman operator to implicitly model the effects of the missing degrees of freedom. We describe in detail the statistical physics of partial observations underlying data-driven models using novel maximum entropy and maximum caliber measures. The resulting nonequilibrium Wiener projections applied to the Mori–Zwanzig formalism reveal how data-driven models may converge to the true dynamics of the observable degrees of freedom. Additionally, this framework shows how data-driven models infer the effects of unobserved degrees of freedom implicitly, in much the same way that physics models infer the effects explicitly. This provides a unified implicit-explicit modeling framework for predicting partially-observed systems, with hybrid physics-informed machine learning methods combining both implicit and explicit aspects.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗