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NASA NTRS2017

Transforming Satellite Data into Weather Forecasts

A NASA project spans the gap between research and operations, introducing new composites of satellite imagery to weather forecasters to prepare for the next generation of satellites. Satellite imagery has been an immense benefit to weather forecasters. With it, they can assess aviation hazards such as low clouds, monitor thunderstorms, and track the evolution of dust plumes. Satellite sensors are continually evolving to provide ever greater imaging capabilities, and researchers continue to develop advanced techniques to identify hazards in satellite imagery. However, barriers can prevent experimental products from reaching forecasters in the operational environment. A NASA project has developed an interactive process whereby weather forecasters learn to interpret the latest satellite imagery and apply it to their operations. Forecasters then provide feedback to the researchers who are developing algorithms and products to further improve future products. This effort has taken on greater importance with the anticipated launch of a new series of satellites that will provide substantially greater amounts of data than are currently available.

Emily Berndt↗

NASA NTRS2007

Preliminary Evaluation of GEOS-5 Aerosol and CO Distributions Forecast During TC4

The NASA Tropical Composition, Cloud, and Climate Coupling (TC4) Mission was based out San Jose, Costa Rica during July and August 2007. During TC4 the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) ran twice-daily 0.5 x 0.666 global 5-day forecasts of the Goddard Earth Observing System atmospheric general circulation model and data assimilation system (GEOS-5). This implementation of GEOS-5 contained an aerosol and carbon monoxide (CO) model to provide online forecast tropospheric distributions of dust, sea salt, sulfate, and carbonaceous aerosols and CO for both the planning of flights and for science. Here we provide a description of the aerosol and CO modeling system and give a preliminary evaluation of forecast tracer distributions. Our comparisons to satellite observations of aerosol and CO show qualitatively similar simulated distributions of tracers to those observed. During TC4 copious amounts of dust were observed in the Caribbean. The model generally reproduced the observations of the timing of dust events and the vertical structure in the lower atmosphere. However, the model simulations had too much aerosol at high altitudes relative to airborne Cloud Physics Lidar observations. The results were similar for biomass burning aerosol and CO tracers, where the model showed higher simulated concentrations of these tracers at aircraft flight altitude than observations.

Colarco, Peter R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Joint Assimilation of Surface, GEO, and LEO CO, NO2, and O3 In Situ and Partial Column/Profile Retrievals with WRF-Chem/DART

Low earth orbiting (LEO) satellites like OMI or TROPOMI and geostationary satellites like TEMPO (to be launched January 2023) provide ozone (O3) retrieval profiles that extend into the stratosphere. Regional models like WRF-Chem generally do not include the stratosphere and have vertical grids that end near the tropopause. This causes difficulties when assimilating O3 retrievals (both column and profile retrievals) because the respective observation forward operators require model O3 profiles that extend into the stratosphere. In this presentation, we look at results from assimilating O3 observation from surface (in situ measurements), multiple LEO (profile retrievals), and GEO (proxy profile retrievals) platforms in as regional model where we use a global chemical transport model (GCTM) to provide O3 upper boundary conditions (BCs) to enable application of the O3 observation forward operators. We will also present results from assimilating O3 retrievals together with carbon monoxide (CO) observations from surface (in situ measurements) and multiple LEO platforms (column and profile retrievals), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) observations from surface (in situ measurements), multiple LEO (column retrievals), and GEO (proxy column retrievals) platforms. Our joint assimilation experiments show that sometimes the observations complement each, e.g., when assimilating surface and satellite CO or NO2 observations, and sometimes the observations conflict with each other, e.g., when assimilating observations that are biased with respect to other observations (e.g., CO retrievals), or when the assimilation increments conflict due to their chemical interaction (e.g., surface O3 and NO2 retrievals). Results from assimilation of O3 retrieval profiles in regional model are preliminary and will also be discussed in our presentation. Our expectation is that using GCTM O3 as upper BCs in the regional model for evaluation of the O3 forward operator will improve our O3 forecasts. In summary, we will present results from jointly assimilating surface, LEO, and GEO CO, NO2, and O3 in situ and satellite observations in a regional model with dynamic emissions estimation. This study uses proxy GEO observations as a prelude to actual observations because the GEO platform will not be launched until after our presentation.

WRF-Chem/DART↗

NASA NTRS1978

A study on the utilization of advanced composites in commercial aircraft wing structure

A study was conducted to define the technology and data needed to support the introduction of advanced composite materials in the wing structure of future production aircraft. The study accomplished the following: (1) definition of acceptance factors, (2) identification of technology issues, (3) evaluation of six candidate wing structures, (4) evaluation of five program options, (5) definition of a composite wing technology development plan, (6) identification of full-scale tests, (7) estimation of program costs for the total development plan, (8) forecast of future utilization of composites in commercial transport aircraft and (9) identification of critical technologies for timely program planning.

Watts, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Limb Correction of Individual Infrared Channels Used in RGB Composite Products

This study demonstrates that limb-cooling can be removed from infrared imagery using latitudinally and seasonally dependent limb correction coefficients, which account for an increasing optical path length as scan angle increases. Furthermore, limb-corrected RGB composites provide multiple advantages over uncorrected RGB composites, including increased confidence in the interpretation of RGB features, improved situation awareness for operational forecasters, seamless transition between overlaid RGB composites, easy comparison of RGB products from different sensors, and the availability of high quality proxy products for the GOES-R era, as demonstrated by the case examples presented in Section 3. This limb correction methodology can also be applied to additional infrared channels used to create other RGB products, including those created from other satellite sensors, such as Suomi NPP Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS).

Elmer, Nicholas J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Limb Correction of Individual Infrared Channels Used in RGB Composite Products

RGB↗

NASA NTRS2020

NASA's High-Resolution GEOS Forecasting and Reanalysis Products: Support for TOLNet

Stratospheric intrusions (SIs) the introduction of ozone-rich stratospheric air into the troposphere â€“ have been the interest of decades of research for their link with surface ozone air quality exceedances, especially at the high elevations in the western USA in springtime; however, the impact of SIs in the remaining seasons and over the rest of the USA is less clear. We can expect MERRA-2 to realistically represent both atmospheric dynamics and composition. The operational GEOS weather forecasting system, GEOS-FP, has a similar ozone observing system to MERRA-2, while NASA's new global high-resolution air quality forecast system, GEOS-CF, combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12), simulating a wide range of additional air pollutants and tracers which strengthens this detailed analysis of the intrusions and the sources for the high ozone concentrations. Using a multitude of observational datasets, including lidar, air craft, ozonesondes and air quality monitoring surface sites, in combination with the GEOS forecast and reanalysis products, we aim to provide the public with tools which are available in near-real time to enhance their capability to identify the impact of stratospheric air on surface ozone concentrations separate from anthropogenic sources. In particular, improved understanding of the connections between large-scale climate variability and local-scale dynamically-driven air quality events may support improved seasonal prediction of SI events.

Knowland, K. Emma↗

NASA NTRS2016

Limb Correction of Polar-Orbiting Imagery for the Improved Interpretation of RGB Composites

Red-Green-Blue (RGB) composite imagery combines information from several spectral channels into one image to aid in the operational analysis of atmospheric processes. However, infrared channels are adversely affected by the limb effect, the result of an increase in optical path length of the absorbing atmosphere between the satellite and the earth as viewing zenith angle increases. This paper reviews a newly developed technique to quickly correct for limb effects in both clear and cloudy regions using latitudinally and seasonally varying limb correction coefficients for real-time applications. These limb correction coefficients account for the increase in optical path length in order to produce limb-corrected RGB composites. The improved utility of a limb-corrected Air Mass RGB composite from the application of this approach is demonstrated using Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery. However, the limb correction can be applied to any polar-orbiting sensor infrared channels, provided the proper limb correction coefficients are calculated. Corrected RGB composites provide multiple advantages over uncorrected RGB composites, including increased confidence in the interpretation of RGB features, improved situational awareness for operational forecasters, and the ability to use RGB composites from multiple sensors jointly to increase the temporal frequency of observations.

satellite imagery↗

NASA NTRS2009

Impact of Lake Okeechobee Sea Surface Temperatures on Numerical Predictions of Summertime Convective Systems over South Florida

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, the Florida Institute of Technology, and the NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office at Miami, FL (MFL) are collaborating on a project to investigate the impact of using high-resolution, 2-km Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea surface temperature (SST) composites within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) prediction system. The NWS MFL is currently running WRF in real-time to support daily forecast operations, using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical core within the NWS Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) software. Twenty-seven hour forecasts are run daily initialized at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC on a domain with 4-km grid spacing covering the southern half of Florida and adjacent waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. The SSTs are initialized with the NCEP Real-Time Global (RTG) analyses at 1/12deg resolution. The project objective is to determine whether more accurate specification of the lower-boundary forcing over water using the MODIS SST composites within the 4-km WRF runs will result in improved sea fluxes and hence, more accurate e\~olutiono f coastal mesoscale circulations and the associated sensible weather elements. SPoRT conducted parallel WRF EMS runs from February to August 2007 identical to the operational runs at NWS MFL except for the use of MODIS SST composites in place of the RTG product as the initial and boundary conditions over water. During the course of this evaluation, an intriguing case was examined from 6 May 2007, in which lake breezes and convection around Lake Okeechobee evolved quite differently when using the high-resolution SPoRT MODIS SST composites versus the lower-resolution RTG SSTs. This paper will analyze the differences in the 6 May simulations, as well as examine other cases from the summer 2007 in which the WRF-simulated Lake Okeechobee breezes evolved differently due to the SST initialization. The effects on wind fields and precipitation systems will be emphasized, including validation against surface mesonet observations and Stage IV precipitation grids.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Autonomous Ion Mass Spectrometer Sentry (AIMSS)

Satellite measurements of plasma density and temperature help predict the intensity of geomagnetic storms, which can impact satellites, communications, and power systems. Accurate forecasting requires knowledge of plasma composition. However, typical orbital mass spectrometers have difficulty distinguishing between nitrogen (N+) and oxygen (O+) ions due to their similar masses. This limitation makes it difficult to validate modern space weather models, which depend on accurate knowledge of ion composition in near-Earth space. N+ and O+ ions behave differently in space due to differences in their origin, transport, and loss mechanisms. Improving our ability to distinguish between these ions is critical for understanding and predicting space weather.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS1972

Evaluation of noise pollution level based upon community exposure and response data

The results and procedures are reported from an evaluation of noise pollution level as a predictor of annoyance, based on aircraft noise exposure and community response data. The measures of noise exposure presented include composite noise rating, noise exposure forecast, noise and number index. A proposed measure as a universal noise exposure measure for noise pollution level (L sub NP) is discussed.

Edmiston, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Observations of Total Lightning Associated with Severe Convection During the Wet Season in Central Florida

This paper will discuss findings of a collaborative lightning research project between National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the National Weather Service office In Melbourne Florida. In August 1996, NWS/MLB received a workstation which incorporates data from the KMLB WSR-88D, Cloud to Ground (CG) stroke data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), and 3D volumetric lightning data collected from the Kennedy Space Centers' Lightning Detection And Ranging (LDAR) lightning system. The two primary objectives of this lightning workstation, called Lightning Imaging Sensor Data Applications Display (USDAD), are to: observe how total lightning relates to severe convective storm morphology over central Florida, and compare ground based total lightning data (LDAR) to a satellite based lightning detection system. This presentation will focus on objective #1. The LISDAD system continuously displays CG and total lighting activity overlaid on top of the KMLB composite reflectivity product. This allows forecasters to monitor total lightning activity associated with convective cells occurring over the central Florida peninsula and adjacent coastal waters. The LISDAD system also keeps track of the amount of total lightning data, and associated KMLB radar products with individual convective cells occurring over the region. By clicking on an individual cell, a history table displays flash rate information (CG and total lightning) in one minute increments, along with radar parameter trends (echo tops, maximum dBz and height of maximum dBz) every 5 minutes. This history table Is updated continuously, without user intervention, as long as the cell is identified. Reviewing data collected during the 1997 wet season (21 cases) revealed that storms which produced severe weather (hall greater or = 0.75 in. or wind damage) typically showed a rapid rise In total lightning prior to the onset of severe weather. On average, flash rate increases of 25 FPM per minute over a time scale of approximately 5 minutes were common. These pulse severe storms typically reached values of 150 to 200 FPM with some cells exceeding 400 FPM. One finding which could have a direct application to the warning process is that the rapid increase in lightning typically occurred in advance of the warning issuance time. Comparisons between the ending time of the rapid rate increase and the time of when the warning was issued by NWS/MLB meteorologist exhibited a lead time of 8 minutes. It is conceivable that if close monitoring of the LISDAD system by operational meteorologist is routinely performed, warnings for pulse severe storms could be issued up to 4 to 6 minutes earlier than what is issued currently.

Sharp, D.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Ambient Performance Testing of the CubeSat Infrared Atmospheric Sounder (CIRAS)

Hyperspectral infrared measurements of Earth’s atmosphere from space have proven their value for weather forecasting, climate science and atmospheric composition. The CubeSat Infrared Atmospheric Sounder (CIRAS) instrument will demonstrate a fully functional infrared temperature, water vapor and carbon monoxide sounder in a CubeSat sized volume for at least an order of magnitude lower cost than legacy systems. Design for a CubeSat significantly reduces cost of access to space and enables flight in a constellation to reduce revisit time and enable new measurements including 3D winds. A technology demonstration of CIRAS is currently under development at JPL. The effort has completed integration and ambient testing of a high fidelity brassboard, complete with the flight configured optics assembly developed by Ball Aerospace with a JPL Immersion Grating and Black Silicon Entrance Slit. The brassboard includes a flight-configured High Operating Temperature Barrier Infrared Detector (HOT-BIRD) mounted in an Integrated Dewar Cryocooler Assembly (IDCA), enabling testing in the ambient environment. Ambient testing included radiometric testing of the system to characterize the instrument operability and NEdT. Spatial testing was performed to characterize the system line spread function (LSF) in two axes and report FWHM of the LSF. Spectral testing involved an air path test to characterize the spectral/spatial transformation matrix, and an etalon was used to measure the Spectral Response Functions (SRFs). Results of the testing show the CIRAS performs exceptionally well and meets the key performance required of the system. The end result of testing is the CIRAS instrument now meets TRL 4 with confidence in a brassboard configuration ready for thermal vacuum (TVac) testing necessary to achieve TRL 5 for the system.

Wilson, Robert C.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Market Analysis of the Subsonic Single Aft Engine (SUSAN) Transport Aircraft Concept

This paper presents a detailed market analysis of the U.S. domestic aviation market in support of the NASA subsonic single aft engine (SUSAN) regional aircraft concept. The current scoping of the SUSAN concept is intended to compete in the medium to large (160-180 seats) narrow body market, with range capabilities of up to 2,500 nautical miles, and expected fuel burn reduction up to 40% relative to conventional 2 engine aircraft. Recent historical trends suggest growth in aviation passenger demand will continue to be met by the narrow body fleet of aircraft; however, a comprehensive review is required to understand how these current fleet trends could evolve in the future. Moreover, estimating and forecasting the potential market size is the critical first step when developing a new aircraft concept to determine commercial viability. To assist in the trade space exploration of the SUSAN concept, a generalized traffic and fleet forecast of the U.S. aviation market is conducted. Using publicly available aviation data from the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics and passenger demand forecasts from FAA, a multinomial logit model is estimated to predict the composition of the future fleet by aircraft size. These fleet forecasts are then used as inputs for a fleet evolution model to provide required operational forecasts at the aircraft specific level. Forecast scenarios with and without the SUSAN concept are compared, and a breakeven analysis is performed to evaluate the commercial viability of the SUSAN aircraft from an operating cost perspective. Results from the multinomial logit fleet forecast indicate the narrow body size category of 150+ seats dominating the market, comprising 87% of the future revenue passenger miles market share in 2050 (up from 60% in 2019). Forecast scenarios with the SUSAN concept see a maximum cumulative decline in fuel cost of 20% by 2050, while a breakeven analysis shows competitive advantage of the SUSAN aircraft, due to expected fuel burn reduction, at moderate levels of increased maintenance and capital costs.

Jacob M. Wishart↗

NASA NTRS2010

Impact of High Resolution SST Data on Regional Weather Forecasts

Past studies have shown that the use of coarse resolution SST products such as from the real-time global (RTG) SST analysis[1] or other coarse resolution once-a-day products do not properly portray the diurnal variability of fluxes of heat and moisture from the ocean that drive the formation of low level clouds and precipitation over the ocean. For example, the use of high resolution MODIS SST composite [2] to initialize the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) (ARW) [3] has been shown to improve the prediction of sensible weather parameters in coastal regions [4][5}. In an extend study, [6] compared the MODIS SST composite product to the RTG SST analysis and evaluated forecast differences for a 6 month period from March through August 2007 over the Florida coastal regions. In a comparison to buoy data, they found that that the MODIS SST composites reduced the bias and standard deviation over that of the RTG data. These improvements led to significant changes in the initial and forecasted heat fluxes and the resulting surface temperature fields, wind patterns, and cloud distributions. They also showed that the MODIS composite SST product, produced for the Terra and Aqua satellite overpass times, captured a component of the diurnal cycle in SSTs not represented in the RTG or other one-a-day SST analyses. Failure to properly incorporate these effects in the WRF initialization cycle led to temperature biases in the resulting short term forecasts. The forecast impact was limited in some situations however, due to composite product inaccuracies brought about by data latency during periods of long-term cloud cover. This paper focuses on the forecast impact of an enhanced MODIS/AMSR-E composite SST product designed to reduce inaccuracies due data latency in the MODIS only composite product.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Current Usage and Future Prospects of Multispectral (RGB) Satellite Imagery in Support of NWS Forecast Offices and National Centers

What is an RGB Composite Image? (1) Current and future satellite instruments provide remote sensing at a variety of wavelengths. (2) RGB composite imagery assign individual wavelengths or channel differences to the intensities of the red, green, and blue components of a pixel color. (3) Each red, green, and blue color intensity is related to physical properties within the final composite image. (4) Final color assignments are therefore related to the characteristics of image pixels. (5) Products may simplify the interpretation of data from multiple bands by displaying information in a single image. Current Products and Usage: Collaborations between SPoRT, CIRA, and NRL have facilitated the use and evaluation of RGB products at a variety of NWS forecast offices and National Centers. These products are listed in table.

Molthan, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS1990

The utilization of satellite observed total ozone to predict tropical cyclone recurvature

The feasibility of using satellite measurements of total ozone to delineate the characteristic upper-tropospheric wave patterns conductive for tropical cyclone recurvature was investigated using measurements by the Nimbus-7 TOMS instrument measurements of total ozone fields were used to delineate the total ozone distribution for the straight-moving, left-curving, and right-curving tropical cyclones. Using these data for 12-h and 24-h forecasts, it is shown that the composite total ozone maps could be used to differentiate the recurving tropical cyclones from nonrecurving systems, suggesting that the majority of the upper-tropospheric waves delineated by total ozone distribution were deep enough to influence the motion of the storms. The left- and the right-recurving tropical cyclones observed during the 12-hr and 24-hr periods had, respectively, higher and lower upper-tropospheric heights downstream than the nonrecurving cyclones.

Rodgers, Edward B.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Performance of the IRI-2007 Model for Topside Ion Density and Composition Profiles During the 23/24 Solar Minimum

The recent solar minimum between cycles 23 and 24 was unusually extended and deep, resulting in an ionosphere that is significantly different from that expected based on previous solar minima. The ion density and composition estimates from the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) satellite are used to evaluate the performance of the IRI-2007 model between 400 and 850 kIn altitude in equatorial regions. The current model is shown to typically overestimate the expected topside density of 0+ and underestimate the density of H+ during 2008 and 2009. The overestimation of ion density by IRI-2007 is found to vary with local time and longitude.

Klenzing, J. H.↗