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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6

Machine-Learning for Battery Health Diagnosis

Battery health diagnosis often requires time-consuming measurements in laboratory conditions, but these types of measurements are unsuitable for use in real-world application such as electric vehicles. Instead, rapid measurements that can be conducted at varying environmental conditions need to be used to monitor battery health. Machine-learning techniques can then be utilized to connect these rapid measurements to health diagnostic information recorded in the lab. This presentation is a part of a tutorial on using machine-learning methods to analyze and predict battery state.

battery↗

An Application of ASP in Nuclear Engineering: Explaining the Three Mile Island Nuclear Accident Scenario

Abstract The paper describes an ongoing effort in developing a declarative system for supporting operators in the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) control room. The focus is on two modules: diagnosis and explanation of events that happened in NPPs. We describe an Answer Set Programming (ASP) representation of an NPP, which consists of declarations of state variables, components, their connections, and rules encoding the plant behavior. We then show how the ASP program can be used to explain the series of events that occurred in the Three Mile Island, Unit 2 (TMI-2) NPP accident, the most severe accident in the USA nuclear power plant operating history. We also describe an explanation module aimed at addressing answers to questions such as “why an event occurs?” or “what should be done?” given the collected data.

Computer Science↗

A propagation-based fault detection and discrimination method and the optimization of sensor deployment

Industrial processes can be affected by faults having a serious impact on operation when not promptly detected and diagnosed. Here in this paper, a propagation-based fault detection and discrimination(PFDD) method is proposed to develop a strategy for fault diagnosis while in the design phase of a system. The PFDD method constructs the system model using the Integrated System Fault Analysis(ISFA) technique. Based on the system model, the propagation of hardware and software faults are simulated qualitatively. Given the results of the simulation, the process by which a fault propagates can be characterized using the qualitative features of system variables including the deviation of the system variables from their expected values, the variation of the system variables over time, and the order in which each variable is influenced during the propagation of the fault. The strategy by which a fault can be detected and discriminated is defined using those features. The PFDD method supports the detection and discrimination of faults in both steady states and transient states. Based on the PFDD method, the optimization of sensor deployment in a system is discussed. A brute force algorithm is developed to examine the system’s capability at diagnosing faults and the cost of sensor deployment for all possible configurations of sensors. The optimal sensor deployment strategy can be derived accordingly. However, the brute force method is only applicable to small-scale systems due to its high computational cost. A genetic algorithm is used to optimize sensor deployment in large-scale systems. The PFDD and sensor deployment optimization methods are applied to the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) for verification.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Wall heating by subcritical energetic electrons generated by the runaway electron avalanche source *

Abstract Subcritical energetic electrons (SEEs) produced by the runaway electron (RE) avalanche source at energies below the runaway threshold are found to be the primary contributor to surface heating of plasma-facing components (PFCs) during final loss events. This finding is supported by theoretical analysis, computational modeling with the Kinetic Orbit Runaway electrons Code (KORC), and qualitative agreement with DIII-D experimental observations. The avalanche source generates significantly more secondary electrons below the runaway threshold, which thermalize rapidly when well-confined. However, during a final loss event, the RE beam impacts the first wall, and SEEs are deconfined before they can thermalize. Additionally, because the energy deposition length decreases faster than energy, the deposited energy density, and thus the maximum PFC surface temperature change, is larger for SEEs than REs. KORC simulations employ an analytic first wall to model particle deconfinement onto a non-axisymmetric wall composed of individual tiles. PFC surface heating is calculated using a 1D model extended to include an energy-dependent deposition length scale. Simulations of DIII-D qualitatively agree with infrared (IR) imaging only when SEEs from the avalanche source are included. These results demonstrate that SEEs are the dominant contributor to PFC surface heating and indicate that the avalanche source plays a critical role in the PFC damage caused during final loss events. The prominence of SEEs also has important implications for interpreting IR imaging, one of the primary diagnostics for RE-wall interaction diagnosis, despite REs dominating the energy and current density. This result improves predictions of wall damage due to post-disruption REs to estimate material lifetime and design RE mitigation systems for ITER and future reactors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Validating deep learning inference during chest X-ray classification for COVID-19 screening

Abstract The new coronavirus unleashed a worldwide pandemic in early 2020, and a fatality rate several times that of the flu. As the number of infections soared, and capabilities for testing lagged behind, chest X-ray (CXR) imaging became more relevant in the early diagnosis and treatment planning for patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 infection. In a few weeks, proposed new methods for lung screening using deep learning rapidly appeared, while quality assurance discussions lagged behind. This paper proposes a set of protocols to validate deep learning algorithms, including our ROI Hide-and-Seek protocol, which emphasizes or hides key regions of interest from CXR data. Our protocol allows assessing the classification performance for anomaly detection and its correlation to radiological signatures, an important issue overlooked in several deep learning approaches proposed so far. By running a set of systematic tests over CXR representations using public image datasets, we demonstrate the weaknesses of current techniques and offer perspectives on the advantages and limitations of automated radiography analysis when using heterogeneous data sources.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DDxNet: a deep learning model for automatic interpretation of electronic health records, electrocardiograms and electroencephalograms

Effective patient care mandates rapid, yet accurate, diagnosis. With the abundance of non-invasive diagnostic measurements and electronic health records (EHR), manual interpretation for differential diagnosis has become time-consuming and challenging. This has led to wide-spread adoption of AI-powered tools, in pursuit of improving accuracy and efficiency of this process. While the unique challenges presented by each modality and clinical task demand customized tools, the cumbersome process of making problem-specific choices has triggered the critical need for a generic solution to enable rapid development of models in practice. In this spirit, we develop DDxNet, a deep architecture for time-varying clinical data, which we demonstrate to be well-suited for diagnostic tasks involving different modalities (ECG/EEG/EHR), required level of characterization (abnormality detection/phenotyping) and data fidelity (single-lead ECG/22-channel EEG). Using multiple benchmark problems, we show that DDxNet produces high-fidelity predictive models, and sometimes even provides significant performance gains over problem-specific solutions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Deep learning uncertainty quantification for clinical text classification

Machine learning algorithms are expected to work side-by-side with humans in decision-making pipelines. Thus, the ability of classifiers to make reliable decisions is of paramount importance. Deep neural networks (DNNs) represent the state-of-the-art models to address real-world classification. Although the strength of activation in DNNs is often correlated with the network’s confidence, in-depth analyses are needed to establish whether they are well calibrated. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of DNN-based classification tools to benefit cancer registries by automating information extraction of disease at diagnosis and at surgery from electronic text pathology reports from the US National Cancer Institute (NCI) Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) population-based cancer registries. In particular, we introduce multiple methods for selective classification to achieve a target level of accuracy on multiple classification tasks while minimizing the rejection amount—that is, the number of electronic pathology reports for which the model’s predictions are unreliable. We evaluate the proposed methods by comparing our approach with the current in-house deep learning-based abstaining classifier. Overall, all the proposed selective classification methods effectively allow for achieving the targeted level of accuracy or higher in a trade-off analysis aimed to minimize the rejection rate. On in-distribution validation and holdout test data, with all the proposed methods, we achieve on all tasks the required target level of accuracy with a lower rejection rate than the deep abstaining classifier (DAC). Interpreting the results for the out-of-distribution test data is more complex; nevertheless, in this case as well, the rejection rate from the best among the proposed methods achieving 97% accuracy or higher is lower than the rejection rate based on the DAC. We show that although both approaches can flag those samples that should be manually reviewed and labeled by human annotators, the newly proposed methods retain a larger fraction and do so without retraining—thus offering a reduced computational cost compared with the in-house deep learning-based abstaining classifier.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Testing and validating SMDS algorithms implemented in the cloud

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) provided technical assistance to NorthWrite Inc. under the Small Business Vouchers (SBV) Pilot. NorthWrite delivered services to owners of small commercial buildings, using a cloud-based service to monitor, control, and optimize building operations, saving energy and reducing operating costs for the owners while ensuring that occupant comfort needs were consistently met. NorthWrite had a longstanding desire to add a new suite of diagnostic capabilities to their service offering and had been trying, without success, to incorporate several diagnostic algorithms published by PNNL. These algorithms arise from research previously supported by BTO. Through the SBV awarded to NorthWrite, PNNL made available technical knowledge regarding the derivation and application of the following sets of algorithms for use in the NorthWrite Cloud-based service delivery system: • algorithms for monitoring rooftop packaged air conditioners and heat pumps (often referred to as rooftop units or RTUs) and diagnosing faults in these units, • advanced algorithms for automated fault detection and diagnosis of other equipment found in small buildings, and • algorithms for identifying, prioritizing, and assessing the economic effectiveness of implementing energy saving measures in small commercial buildings based on sensed data. The PNNL researchers involved were the original developers of these algorithms, had a unique understanding of the derivation of the algorithms, and had the source data used for this derivation. Further, the PNNL researchers had extensive experience using these algorithms in the laboratory, unique experience applying these algorithms in real-world small commercial buildings and could solve a number of key problems that NorthWrite and other users faced in using these algorithms at scale. In addition, PNNL had recently installed a pair of RTUs in a laboratory setting that were instrumented and connected with data acquisition systems that provided a unique test rig for validating the algorithms before NorthWrite began to deploy their new services in the field.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Design of a multi-detector, single line-of-sight, time-of-flight system to measure time-resolved neutron energy spectra

In the dynamic environment of burning, thermonuclear deuterium–tritium plasmas, diagnosing the time-resolved neutron energy spectrum is of critical importance. Strategies exist for this diagnosis in magnetic confinement fusion plasmas, which presently have a lifetime of ~10 12 longer than inertial confinement fusion (ICF) plasmas. In this work, we present a novel concept for a simple, precise, and scale-able diagnostic to measure time-resolved neutron spectra in ICF plasmas. The concept leverages general tomographic reconstruction techniques adapted to time-of-flight parameter space, and then employs an updated Monte Carlo algorithm and National Ignition Facility-relevant constraints to reconstruct the time-evolving neutron energy spectrum. Reconstructed spectra of the primary 14.028 MeV n DT peak are in good agreement with the exact synthetic spectra. The technique is also used to reconstruct the time-evolving downscattered spectrum, although the present implementation shows significantly more error.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Integrated End-to-end Performance Prediction and Diagnosis for Extreme Scientific Workflows (IPPD) (Final Report)

This report details the accomplishments from the ASCR funded project “Integrated End-to-end Performance Prediction and Diagnosis for Extreme Scientific Workflows” under the award numbers FWP-66406 and DE-SC0012630, with a focus on the UC San Diego (Award No. DE-SC0012630) part of the accomplishments. We refer to the project as IPPD. The main activities of IPPD were centered on the development and integration of provenance information to capture empirically workflow information and identify the sources of bottlenecks as well as variability, and modeling and simulation to provide insights and predictively explore multiple scenarios for development of advanced techniques for optimization of resources and workflow execution. After a Phase I of the project, a Phase II effort focused on three major aspects: a) observe how data is generated, distributed, and used; b) analyze how data is (repeatedly) consumed with a focus both on repeated patterns and anomalies; and c) explore how to optimize data motion. The project leveraged and extended our existing tools with new research and demonstrated our work on the Belle II workflow suite as well as on workflows from NSLS-II.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Improving Seasonal Forecast Using Probabilistic Deep Learning

The path toward realizing the potential of seasonal forecasting and its socioeconomic benefits relies on improving general circulation model (GCM) based dynamical forecast systems. To improve dynamical seasonal forecasts, it is crucial to set up forecast benchmarks, and clarify forecast limitations posed by model initialization errors, formulation deficiencies, and internal climate variability. With huge costs in generating large forecast ensembles, and limited observations for forecast verification, the seasonal forecast benchmarking and diagnosing task proves challenging. Here, we develop a probabilistic deep learning-based statistical forecast methodology, drawing on a wealth of climate simulations to enhance seasonal forecast capability and forecast diagnosis. By explicitly modeling the internal climate variability and GCM formulation differences, the proposed Conditional Generative Forecasting (CGF) methodology enables bypassing crucial barriers in dynamical forecast, and offers a top-down viewpoint to examine how complicated GCMs encode the seasonal predictability information. We apply the CGF methodology for global seasonal forecast of precipitation and 2 m air temperature, based on a unique data set consisting 52,201 years of climate simulation. Results show that the CGF methodology can faithfully represent the seasonal predictability information encoded in GCMs. We successfully apply this learned relationship in real-world seasonal forecast, achieving competitive performance compared to dynamical forecasts. Using this CGF as benchmark, we reveal the impact of insufficient forecast spread sampling that limits the skill of the considered dynamical forecast system. Finally, we introduce different strategies for composing ensembles using the CGF methodology, highlighting the potential for leveraging the strengths of multiple GCMs to achieve advantgeous seasonal forecast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine learning prediction of incidence of Alzheimer’s disease using large-scale administrative health data

Nationwide population-based cohort provides a new opportunity to build an automated risk prediction model based on individuals’ history of health and healthcare beyond existing risk prediction models. We tested the possibility of machine learning models to predict future incidence of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) using large-scale administrative health data. From the Korean National Health Insurance Service database between 2002 and 2010, we obtained de-identified health data in elders above 65 years (N = 40,736) containing 4,894 unique clinical features including ICD-10 codes, medication codes, laboratory values, history of personal and family illness and socio-demographics. To define incident AD we considered two operational definitions: “definite AD” with diagnostic codes and dementia medication (n = 614) and “probable AD” with only diagnosis (n = 2026). We trained and validated random forest, support vector machine and logistic regression to predict incident AD in 1, 2, 3, and 4 subsequent years. For predicting future incidence of AD in balanced samples (bootstrapping), the machine learning models showed reasonable performance in 1-year prediction with AUC of 0.775 and 0.759, based on “definite AD” and “probable AD” outcomes, respectively; in 2-year, 0.730 and 0.693; in 3-year, 0.677 and 0.644; in 4-year, 0.725 and 0.683. The results were similar when the entire (unbalanced) samples were used. Important clinical features selected in logistic regression included hemoglobin level, age and urine protein level. This study may shed a light on the utility of the data-driven machine learning model based on large-scale administrative health data in AD risk prediction, which may enable better selection of individuals at risk for AD in clinical trials or early detection in clinical settings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Polysulfide-incompatible additive suppresses spatial reaction heterogeneity of Li-S batteries

Rational electrolyte engineering for practical pouch cells remains elusive because the correlation between the cathode/solid-electrolyte interphase layer and cell-level reaction behavior is poorly understood. Here, by combining multiscale characterization and computational modeling, we show that—counter to the conventional perception of polysulfide-incompatible additives—the spontaneous reaction of sparingly solvated polysulfides with Lewis acid additives (LAAs) can induce in situ formation of a homogeneous interphase on thick and tortuous S cathode. Multiscale synchrotron X-ray characterization consistently affirms that such interface design could effectively eliminate the notorious problems of polysulfide shuttle and lithium corrosion and, more importantly, provide an interconnected “ion transport highway” to alleviate the uneven ion transport within the tortuous S cathode. Hence, this design dramatically reduces the reaction heterogeneity of lithium-sulfur (Li-S) pouch cells under lean electrolyte conditions. Further, this work resolves controversy around the role of polysulfide-incompatible additives in high-energy Li-S pouch cells and highlights the importance of suppressing reaction heterogeneity for practical batteries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

TracKlinic: Diagnosis of Challenge Factors in Visual Tracking

Generic visual object tracking is difficult due to many challenge factors (e.g., occlusion, blur, etc.). Each of these factors may cause serious problems for a tracker, and when they work together can make things even more complicated. Despite a great amount of efforts devoted to understanding the behavior of trackers, reliable and quantifiable ways for studying the per factor tracking behavior remain barely available. Addressing this issue, in this paper we contribute to the community a tracking diagnosis toolkit, TracKlinic, for diagnosis of challenge factors of tracking algorithms. TracKlinic consists of two novel components focusing on the data and analysis aspects, respectively. For the data component, we carefully prepare a set of 2,390 annotated videos, each involving one and only one major challenge factor. When analyzing an algorithm for a specific challenge factor, such one-factor-per-sequence rule greatly inhibits the disturbance from other factors and consequently leads to more faithful analysis. For the analysis component, given the tracking results on all sequences, it investigates the behavior of the tracker under each individual factor and generates the report automatically. With TracKlinic, a thorough study is conducted on ten state-of-the-art trackers on nine challenge factors (including two compound ones). The results suggest that, heavy shape variation and occlusion are the two most challenging factors faced by most trackers. Besides, out-of-view, though does not happen frequently, is often fatal. By sharing TracKlinic1, we expect to make it much easier for diagnosing tracking algorithms, and to thus facilitate developing better ones.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Numerical Simulations of Orographic Convection across Multiple Gray Zones

Idealized simulations are used to determine the sensitivity of moist orographic convection to horizontal grid spacing Δ h . In simulated mechanically (MECH) and thermally (THERM) forced convection over an isolated ridge, Δ h is varied systematically over both the deep-convection (Δ h ~ 10 –1 km) and turbulence (Δ h ~ 1 km–100 m) gray zones. To aid physical interpretation, a new parcel-based bulk entrainment/detrainment diagnosis for horizontally heterogeneous flows is developed. Within the deep-convection gray zone, the Δ h sensitivity is dominated by differences in parameterized versus explicit convection; the former initiates convection too far upstream of the ridge (MECH) and too early in the diurnal heating cycle (THERM). These errors stem in part from a large underprediction of parameterized entrainment and detrainment. Within the turbulence gray zone, sensitivities to Δh arise from the representation of both subcloud- and cloud-layer turbulence. As Δ h is decreased, MECH exhibits stronger cloud-layer entrainment to enhance the convective mass flux M co , while THERM exhibits stronger detrainment to suppress Mco and delay convection initiation. The latter is reinforced by increased subcloud turbulence at smaller Δ h , which leads to drying and diffusion of the central updraft responsible for initiating moist convection. Numerical convergence to a robust solution occurs only in THERM, which develops a fully turbulent flow with a resolved inertial subrange (for Δ h ≤ 250 m). In MECH, by contrast, turbulent transition occurs within the orographic cloud, the details of which depend on both physical location and Δ h .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

ProZES: the methodology and software tool for assessment of assigned share of radiation in probability of cancer occurrence

ProZES is a software tool for estimating the probability that a given cancer was caused by preceding exposure to ionising radiation. ProZES calculates this probability, the assigned share, for solid cancers and hematopoietic malignant diseases, in cases of exposures to low-LET radiation, and for lung cancer in cases of exposure to radon. User-specified inputs include birth year, sex, type of diagnosed cancer, age at diagnosis, radiation exposure history and characteristics, and smoking behaviour for lung cancer. Cancer risk models are an essential part of ProZES. Linking disease and exposure to radiation involves several methodological aspects, and assessment of uncertainties received particular attention. ProZES systematically uses the principle of multi-model inference. Models of radiation risk were either newly developed or critically re-evaluated for ProZES, including dedicated models for frequent types of cancer and, for less common diseases, models for groups of functionally similar cancer sites. The low-LET models originate mostly from the study of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Risks predicted by these models are adjusted to be applicable to the population of Germany and to different time periods. Adjustment factors for low dose rates and for a reduced risk during the minimum latency time between exposure and cancer are also applied. The development of the methodology and software was initiated and supported by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) taking up advice by the German Commission on Radiological Protection (SSK, Strahlenschutzkommission). These provide the scientific basis to support decision making on compensation claims regarding malignancies following occupational exposure to radiation in Germany.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Securing Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings (GEB) through Cyber Defense and Resilient System (CYDRES)

The DOE CYDRES project is driven by the urgent need to address critical research gaps in the domain of cyber-physical security of smart buildings, including Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings (GEBs). CYDRES, a real-time advanced building resilient platform, aims to enhance the cyber-attack-immune capabilities of buildings through multi-layered prevention, detection, and adaptation mechanisms. CYDRES consists of five key modules: a multi-layer network analyzer, an Automatic Fault Detection, Diagnosis, and Prognosis (AFDDP) framework, an intelligent mode selector, a cyber-resilient control framework, and a situation awareness platform. The Network Analyzer employs a data-driven framework that includes a protocol state learning tool and a CRF (Conditional Random Field) command validator. In Hardware-In-the-Loop (HIL) testbeds, it achieved 100% detection accuracy with a false alarm rate of 3%, validating its efficacy in identifying selected cyber-attacks. The AFDDP framework leverages pattern matching, PCA (Principal Component Analysis)-based strategies, and a DBN (Dynamic Bayesian Network)-based fault diagnosis approach to pinpoint the causes of physical system abnormalities using Building Automation System (BAS) data. In HIL experiments, the AFDDP module attained a detection accuracy of over 95% with a false alarm rate below 7%. Additionally, the fault detector utilized machine learning (Random Forest) and deep learning (Multi-Layer Perceptron) methods with acoustic sensor data to achieve a 100% fault detection accuracy in Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) equipment. The Mode Selector offered real-time impact analysis, allowing immediate actions to protect BASs in the face of emerging threats. The cyber-resilient control framework included an adaptive Model Predictive Control (MPC) and a measurement compensator, reducing temperature violations by up to 94% and improving the total demand flexibility by up to 70% in HIL experiments. Such HIL experiments covered a cyber-attack case and a physical fault case, showcasing CYDRES’ efficiency in maintaining operational continuity during threats. The situation awareness platform in Grafana enhanced real-time threat detection and response visualization, augmenting the operational awareness for building operators. CYDRES demonstrated high technical effectiveness in various test scenarios, particularly in HIL environments. The project's phased development approach ensured efficient use of resources, highlighting its practical feasibility and readiness for commercialization. By enhancing the security and resilience of building operations, CYDRES represents a significant advance in mitigating risks associated with cyber-physical systems, thereby enhancing public confidence in the safety of modern building infrastructure. Future directions for the project include expanding testing protocols, refining AFDDP methodologies, exploring more comprehensive resilient control strategies, and testing in real commercial buildings.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Monarch Initiative in 2024: an analytic platform integrating phenotypes, genes and diseases across species

Abstract Bridging the gap between genetic variations, environmental determinants, and phenotypic outcomes is critical for supporting clinical diagnosis and understanding mechanisms of diseases. It requires integrating open data at a global scale. The Monarch Initiative advances these goals by developing open ontologies, semantic data models, and knowledge graphs for translational research. The Monarch App is an integrated platform combining data about genes, phenotypes, and diseases across species. Monarch's APIs enable access to carefully curated datasets and advanced analysis tools that support the understanding and diagnosis of disease for diverse applications such as variant prioritization, deep phenotyping, and patient profile-matching. We have migrated our system into a scalable, cloud-based infrastructure; simplified Monarch's data ingestion and knowledge graph integration systems; enhanced data mapping and integration standards; and developed a new user interface with novel search and graph navigation features. Furthermore, we advanced Monarch's analytic tools by developing a customized plugin for OpenAI’s ChatGPT to increase the reliability of its responses about phenotypic data, allowing us to interrogate the knowledge in the Monarch graph using state-of-the-art Large Language Models. The resources of the Monarch Initiative can be found at monarchinitiative.org and its corresponding code repository at github.com/monarch-initiative/monarch-app.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗