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At least 109 records · Page 6

Conflict Detection Performance Analysis for Function Allocation Using Time-Shifted Recorded Traffic Data

The performance of the conflict detection function in a separation assurance system is dependent on the content and quality of the data available to perform that function. Specifically, data quality and data content available to the conflict detection function have a direct impact on the accuracy of the prediction of an aircraft's future state or trajectory, which, in turn, impacts the ability to successfully anticipate potential losses of separation (detect future conflicts). Consequently, other separation assurance functions that rely on the conflict detection function - namely, conflict resolution - are prone to negative performance impacts. The many possible allocations and implementations of the conflict detection function between centralized and distributed systems drive the need to understand the key relationships that impact conflict detection performance, with respect to differences in data available. This paper presents the preliminary results of an analysis technique developed to investigate the impacts of data quality and data content on conflict detection performance. Flight track data recorded from a day of the National Airspace System is time-shifted to create conflicts not present in the un-shifted data. A methodology is used to smooth and filter the recorded data to eliminate sensor fusion noise, data drop-outs and other anomalies in the data. The metrics used to characterize conflict detection performance are presented and a set of preliminary results is discussed.

Guerreiro, Nelson M.↗

Investigation of Alert Zone and Display Concepts for Free Flight

To better understand the potential benefits and drawbacks of utilizing a probability-based method, a number of alternative approaches to the collision avoidance problem were examined and summarized in the paper "Survey of Conflict Detection and Resolution Modeling Methods" which was presented in August 1997 at the AIAA Guidance, Navigation, and Control Conference. The paper provides a summary and comparative evaluation of the many different approaches that have been used in the past to perform conflict analysis. Each method is categorized in its dynamic modeling approach and method of handling conflict detection and conflict resolution. For example, one category included the extrapolation method used to predict future trajectories of which 3 were defined: nominal, probabilistic, and worst-case. Another category listed the metrics and parameters used by each method to make conflict decisions (i.e. estimated time to closest point of approach, miss distance, current separation, expected maneuvering cost, probability of conflict). Other useful information such as the ability to handle multi-aircraft conflicts and cooperative and non-cooperative maneuvering is also included.

Yang, Lee C.↗

Development and Demonstration of a Prototype Free Flight Cockpit Display of Traffic Information

Two versions of a prototype Free Flight cockpit situational display (Basic and Enhanced) were examined in a simulation at the NASA Ames Research Center. Both displays presented a display of traffic out to a range of 120 NM, and an alert when the automation detected a substantial danger of losing separation with another aircraft. The task for the crews was to detect and resolve threats to separation posed by intruder aircraft. An Enhanced version of the display was also examined. It incorporated two additional conflict alerting levels and tools to aid in trajectory prediction and path planning. Ten crews from a major airline participated in the study. Performance analyses and pilot debriefings showed that the Enhanced display was preferred, and that minimal separation between the intruder and the ownship was larger with the Enhanced display. In addition, the additional information on the Enhanced display did not lead crews to engage in more maneuvering. Instead an opposite trend was indicated. Finally, crews using the Enhanced display responded more proactively, tending to resolve alerts earlier.

Johnson, Walter W.↗

In-situ High-energy X-ray Diffraction Study of the Local Structure of Supercooled Liquid Si

While changes in the coordination number for liquid silicon upon supercooling, signaling an underlying liquid-liquid phase transition, have been predicted, x-ray and neutron measurements have produced conflicting reports. In particular some studies have found an increase in the first shell coordination as temperature decreases in the supercooled regime, while others have reported increases in the coordination number with decreasing temperature. Employing the technique of electrostatic levitation coupled with high energy x-ray diffraction (125 keV), and rapid data acquisition (100ms collection times) using an area detector, we have obtained high quality structural data more deeply into the supercooled regime than has been possible before. No change in coordination number is observed in this temperature region, calling into question previous experimental claims of structural evidence for the existence of a liquid-liquid phase transition.

Lee, G. W.↗

PIV Measurements of the CEV Hot Abort Motor Plume for CFD Validation

NASA s next manned launch platform for missions to the moon and Mars are the Orion and Ares systems. Many critical aspects of the launch system performance are being verified using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) predictions. The Orion Launch Abort Vehicle (LAV) consists of a tower mounted tractor rocket tasked with carrying the Crew Module (CM) safely away from the launch vehicle in the event of a catastrophic failure during the vehicle s ascent. Some of the predictions involving the launch abort system flow fields produced conflicting results, which required further investigation through ground test experiments. Ground tests were performed to acquire data from a hot supersonic jet in cross-flow for the purpose of validating CFD turbulence modeling relevant to the Orion Launch Abort Vehicle (LAV). Both 2-component axial plane Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) and 3-component cross-stream Stereo Particle Image Velocimetry (SPIV) measurements were obtained on a model of an Abort Motor (AM). Actual flight conditions could not be simulated on the ground, so the highest temperature and pressure conditions that could be safely used in the test facility (nozzle pressure ratio 28.5 and a nozzle temperature ratio of 3) were used for the validation tests. These conditions are significantly different from those of the flight vehicle, but were sufficiently high enough to begin addressing turbulence modeling issues that predicated the need for the validation tests.

Wernet, Mark↗

Machine Learning for Predicting Team Functioning in HERA Missions

Team functioning is integral to success in future long term space exploration missions. Proactively detecting declines in team functioning can mitigate conflict and ensure mission success. This project developed a speech-based artificial intelligence (AI) system that unobtrusively predicts degradation in team functioning, including performance and cohesion, in the Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) Campaigns 4 and 5. The AI system conducted automated analysis of the prosodic (tone of voice) and linguistic (language content) components of speech, modeling interpersonal dynamics at both the turn-taking and day-wide levels. We investigated team functioning via observing structured interactions (i.e., multi-mission space exploration vehicle-extra vehicular activity [MMSEV-EVA], team interaction battery [TIB]) and unstructured interactions before the MMSEV-EVA task. We developed machine learning models to predict team functioning (objective task accuracy, self reported team efficacy and self reported team cohesion) by analyzing OpenSmile acoustic features, linguistic descriptors extracted via the linguistic inquiry and word count (LIWC) dictionary, and semantic embeddings. In the TIB, static models using logistic regression and random forests were not able to predict task accuracy, but predicted team efficacy and cohesion during both the decision making and relational tasks to a moderate level (60-70%). Majority voting on the individual turns to predict day long team efficacy further increased accuracies (70-80%). Finally, long short-term memory (LSTM) models showed the best performance across all variables (80-91%), including task performance. In the MMSEV-EVA, static models achieved an accuracy of 60% with majority voting, which increased to 80% through the incorporation of mission day as a variable, accounting for the learning effect. A key finding across both tasks was the "team-dependent" nature of these interactions; models achieved much higher accuracy when trained on prior days of the same team's data rather than attempting to generalize across entirely different teams, with even 1-2 days of prior data per team achieving 5-15% improvement over team-independent models. In addition, the incorporation of pre-task data from the same team also improves model performance, e.g., incorporating data from the decision-making task of the TIB, which preceded the relational task, improved the prediction of team efficacy and cohesion during the latter. We compared model performance when trained on machine-generated data compared to data that had been further corrected by human annotators. Overall, models trained on human-corrected data exhibited a modest improvement in performance, particularly when acoustic features were used. We found no significant correlation between word error rate (WER) and model accuracy (r(55) = -0.08, p = 0.51), but model’s accuracy was significantly higher for medium/high quality transcription (0.74 (SD = 0.48)) compared to the low-quality group (0.64 (SD = 0.36)) (t(63)=2.82, p = 0.006). Based on these, several design recommendation emerge, that could inform Standards at NASA. Models predicting team functioning should incorporate at least one to two days of historical interaction data, include brief pre-task discussions, and explicitly model temporal learning effects, especially for longer operational tasks. Minimum quality standards for automated speech-processing pipelines are needed, given the performance gains observed with manually corrected acoustic data. Finally, systems should leverage both acoustic features and language embeddings in complementary ways, with modality choices and fusion strategies tailored to mission context, task demands, and data quality requirements.

Shrivatsa Mishra↗

On Convergence of Development Costs and Cost Models for Complex Spaceflight Instrument Electronics

Development costs of a few recent spaceflight instrument electrical and electronics subsystems have diverged from respective heritage cost model predictions. The cost models used are Grass Roots, Price-H and Parametric Model. These cost models originated in the military and industry around 1970 and were successfully adopted and patched by NASA on a mission-by-mission basis for years. However, the complexity of new instruments recently changed rapidly by orders of magnitude. This is most obvious in the complexity of representative spaceflight instrument electronics' data system. It is now required to perform intermediate processing of digitized data apart from conventional processing of science phenomenon signals from multiple detectors. This involves on-board instrument formatting of computational operands from row data for example, images), multi-million operations per second on large volumes of data in reconfigurable hardware (in addition to processing on a general purpose imbedded or standalone instrument flight computer), as well as making decisions for on-board system adaptation and resource reconfiguration. The instrument data system is now tasked to perform more functions, such as forming packets and instrument-level data compression of more than one data stream, which are traditionally performed by the spacecraft command and data handling system. It is furthermore required that the electronics box for new complex instruments is developed for one-digit watt power consumption, small size and that it is light-weight, and delivers super-computing capabilities. The conflict between the actual development cost of newer complex instruments and its electronics components' heritage cost model predictions seems to be irreconcilable. This conflict and an approach to its resolution are addressed in this paper by determining the complexity parameters, complexity index, and their use in enhanced cost model.

Kizhner, Semion↗

Computational Models of Human Performance: Validation of Memory and Procedural Representation in Advanced Air/Ground Simulation

The Man-Machine Interaction Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) under joint U.S. Army and NASA cooperative is intended to assist designers of complex human/automation systems in successfully incorporating human performance capabilities and limitations into decision and action support systems. MIDAS is a computational representation of multiple human operators, selected perceptual, cognitive, and physical functions of those operators, and the physical/functional representation of the equipment with which they operate. MIDAS has been used as an integrated predictive framework for the investigation of human/machine systems, particularly in situations with high demands on the operators. We have extended the human performance models to include representation of both human operators and intelligent aiding systems in flight management, and air traffic service. The focus of this development is to predict human performance in response to aiding system developed to identify aircraft conflict and to assist in the shared authority for resolution. The demands of this application requires representation of many intelligent agents sharing world-models, coordinating action/intention, and cooperative scheduling of goals and action in an somewhat unpredictable world of operations. In recent applications to airborne systems development, MIDAS has demonstrated an ability to predict flight crew decision-making and procedural behavior when interacting with automated flight management systems and Air Traffic Control. In this paper, we describe two enhancements to MIDAS. The first involves the addition of working memory in the form of an articulatory buffer for verbal communication protocols and a visuo-spatial buffer for communications via digital datalink. The second enhancement is a representation of multiple operators working as a team. This enhanced model was used to predict the performance of human flight crews and their level of compliance with commercial aviation communication procedures. We show how the data produced by MIDAS compares with flight crew performance data from full mission simulations. Finally, we discuss the use of these features to study communication issues connected with aircraft-based separation assurance.

Corker, Kevin M.↗

SEQ-GEN: A comprehensive multimission sequencing system

SEQ-GEN is a user-interactive computer program used to plan and generate a sequence of commands for spacecraft. Desired activities are specified by the user of SEQ-GEN; SEQ-GEN in turn expands these activities, deriving the spacecraft commands necessary to accomplish the desired activities. SEQ-GEN models the effects on the spacecraft of the commands, predicting the state as a function of time, flagging any conflicts and rule violations. These states, conflicts, and violations are viewable both graphically and textually at the user's request. SEQ-GEN also displays the entire sequence graphically, showing each requested activity as a bar on its graphical timeline. SEQ-GEN immediately revalidates the sequence, updating its models and calculations along with its displays based on these changes. Because it has the ability to recalculate spacecraft states immediately, the user is able to perform 'what-if' sessions easily. SEQ-GEN, a multimission tool, is adaptable to any flight project. A flight project writes its adaptation files containing project unique information including in its simplest form, only spacecraft commands. For more involved projects the adaptation files may also contain flight and mission rules, description of the spacecraft and ground models, and the definition of activities. SEQ-GEN operates at whatever level of detail the adaptation files imply. Simple adaptations are straight forward to do. There is, however, no limit to the complexity of activity definitions or of spacecraft models: both may involve unlimited logical decision points. Commands and activities may involve any number of parameters of a wide variety of data types, including integer, float, time, boolean, and character strings. SEQ-GEN will be used by the Mars Pathfinder, Cassini, and VIM (Voyager Interstellar Mission) project in an effort to speed up adaptation time and to keep sequence generation costs down. SEQ-GEN is hosted on UNIX workstations. It uses MOTIF and X for windowing, and was designed and coded in an object-oriented style in the language C++.

Salcedo, Jose↗

Processing bottlenecks in dual-task performance: structural limitation or strategic postponement?

Recent evidence indicates that a central bottleneck causes much of the slowing that occurs when two tasks are performed at the same time. This bottleneck might reflect a structural limitation inherent in the cognitive architecture. Alternatively, the bottleneck might reflect strategic (i.e., voluntary) postponement, induced by instructions to emphasize one task over the other. To distinguish structural limitations from strategic postponement, we examine a new paradigm in which subjects are told to place equal emphasis on both tasks and to emit both responses at about the same time. An experiment using this paradigm demonstrated patterns of interference that cannot easily be attributed to strategic postponement, preparation effects, or conflicts in response production. The data conform closely to the predictions of structural central bottleneck models.

Attention↗

Flight effects on exhaust noise for turbojet and turbofan engines - Comparison of experimental data with prediction

Recent experiments on the effects of flight on jet engine exhaust noise have produced apparently conflicting results. Some of these results do not agree with projections based on classical jet noise theories nor with experimental results from model jet simulated flight tests. It has been shown that in some of the cases reported, the proper corrections were not made to account for the distributed nature of the jet noise sources. It is shown herein that the remaining discrepancies can be reconciled by considering the combined effects of jet-mixing noise, internally-generated engine exhaust noise, and shock noise. This paper demonstrates that static and in-flight jet engine exhaust noise can be predicted with reasonable accuracy when the multiple-source nature of the problem is taken into account. Jet-mixing noise is predicted from an improved version of the NASA interim prediction method. Provisional methods of estimating internally-generated noise and shock noise flight effects are used, based partly on existing prediction methods and partly on recently reported engine data.

Stone, J. R.↗

Assessing time-dependent temperature profile predictions using reduced transport models for high performing NSTX plasmas

Time-dependent, predictive simulations were performed with the 1.5D tokamak integrated modeling code TRANSP on a large set of well-analyzed, high performing discharges from the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) in order to evaluate how well modern reduced transport models can reproduce experimentally observed temperature profiles in spherical tokamaks. Overall, it is found that simulations using the Multi-Mode Model (MMM) more consistently agree with the NSTX observations than those using the Trapped Gyro-Landau Fluid (TGLF) model, despite TGLF requiring orders of magnitude greater computational cost. When considering all examined discharges, MMM has median overpredictions of electron temperature (T e ) and ion temperature (T i ) profiles of 28% and 27%, respectively, relative to the experiment. TGLF overpredicts T e by 46%, with much larger variance than MMM, and underpredicts T i by 25%. As the ratio of kinetic to magnetic field pressure (β) is increased across NSTX discharges, TGLF predicts lower T e and significant flattening of the T i profile, conflicting with NSTX observations. When using an electrostatic version of TGLF, both T e and T i are substantially overpredicted, underscoring the importance of electromagnetic turbulence in the high β spherical tokamak regime. Additionally, calculations with neural net surrogate models for TGLF were performed outside of TRANSP with a time slice flux matching transport solver, finding better agreement with experiment than the TRANSP simulations, highlighting the impact of different transport solvers and simulation techniques. Furthermore, the reasonable agreement with experiment of temperature profiles predicted by MMM motivates a more detailed examination of the sensitivities of the TRANSP simulations with MMM to different NSTX plasma regimes in a companion paper (Lestz et al Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 67 105030), in preparation for self-consistent, time-dependent predictive modeling of NSTX-U scenarios.

Lestz, J. B. [General Atomics, San Diego, CA (Unit↗

Intent Modeling and Conflict Probability Calculation for Operations in Upper Class E Airspace

This work presents a probabilistic operational intent model for vehicles operating in upper Class E airspace. A hybrid method is developed to calculate the intent conflict probability leveraging and extending past works on probabilistic conflict computation. Simulation results verify that the probabilistic intent model can accurately encompass the uncertain positions of each vehicle type, that are a result of wind prediction errors and vehicle performance. A comparison with past methods showed that the proposed hybrid method captures the intent conflict probability with better accuracy, especially for a larger look-ahead horizon, and computational time is reasonable for real-time applications. An example is presented to illustrate the use of the intent conflict probability in strategic planning applications.

Air traffic management↗

Intent Modeling and Conflict Probability Calculation for Operations in Upper Class E Airspace

This work presents a probabilistic operational intent model for vehicles operating in upper Class E airspace. A hybrid method is developed to calculate the intent conflict probability leveraging and extending past works on probabilistic conflict computation. Simulation results verify that the probabilistic intent model can accurately encompass the uncertain positions of each vehicle type, that are a result of wind prediction errors and vehicle performance. A comparison with past methods showed that the proposed hybrid method captures the intent conflict probability with better accuracy, especially for a larger look-ahead horizon, and computational time is reasonable for real-time applications. An example is presented to illustrate the use of the intent conflict probability in strategic planning applications.

Air traffic management, operational intent, confli↗

A Near-Term Concept for Trajectory Based Operations with Air/Ground Data Link Communication

An operating concept and required system components for trajectory-based operations with air/ground data link for today's en route and transition airspace is proposed. Controllers are fully responsible for separation as they are today, and no new aircraft equipage is required. Trajectory automation computes integrated solutions to problems like metering, weather avoidance, traffic conflicts and the desire to find and fly more time/fuel efficient flight trajectories. A common ground-based system supports all levels of aircraft equipage and performance including those equipped and not equipped for data link. User interface functions for the radar controller's display make trajectory-based clearance advisories easy to visualize, modify if necessary, and implement. Laboratory simulations (without human operators) were conducted to test integrated operation of selected system components with uncertainty modeling. Results are based on 102 hours of Fort Worth Center traffic recordings involving over 37,000 individual flights. The presence of uncertainty had a marginal effect (5%) on minimum-delay conflict resolution performance, and windfavorable routes had no effect on detection and resolution metrics. Flight plan amendments and clearances were substantially reduced compared to today s operations. Top-of-descent prediction errors are the largest cause of failure indicating that better descent predictions are needed to reliably achieve fuel-efficient descent profiles in medium to heavy traffic. Improved conflict detections for climbing flights could enable substantially more continuous climbs to cruise altitude. Unlike today s Conflict Alert, tactical automation must alert when an altitude amendment is entered, but before the aircraft starts the maneuver. In every other failure case tactical automation prevented losses of separation. A real-time prototype trajectory trajectory-automation system is running now and could be made ready for operational testing at an en route Center in 1-2 years.

McNally, David↗

A Holding Function for Conflict Probe Appiications

Conflict Alerts for aircraft in holding patterns are often missed or in error due to fact that holding trajectories are not modeled in Conflict Alert or Conflict Probe logic. In addition, a controller in one sector may not know when aircraft are holding in a neighboring sector. These factors can lead to an increased potential for loss of separation while aircraft are flying in holding patterns. A holding function for conflict probe applications has been developed and tested with air traffic data from Fort Worth Center. The holding function automatically determines when an aircraft enters a holding pattern, builds a holding region around the pattern and then probes the region for conflict with other traffic. The operational concept of use assumes that air traffic controllers are very busy during periods when aircraft are in holding and therefore don't have time to manually enter information which defines a holding pattern and activates conflict probing. For this reason, it is important the holding function automatically detect aircraft in holding and compute a holding region for conflict analysis. The controller is then alerted if other aircraft are predicted to fly through the holding region at the holding altitude.

McNally, Dave↗

A User Guide for Smoothing Air Traffic Radar Data

Matlab software was written to provide smoothing of radar tracking data to simulate ADS-B (Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast) data in order to test a tactical conflict probe. The probe, called TSAFE (Tactical Separation-Assured Flight Environment), is designed to handle air-traffic conflicts left undetected or unresolved when loss-of-separation is predicted to occur within approximately two minutes. The data stream that is down-linked from an aircraft equipped with an ADS-B system would include accurate GPS-derived position and velocity information at sample rates of 1 Hz. Nation-wide ADS-B equipage (mandated by 2020) should improve surveillance accuracy and TSAFE performance. Currently, position data are provided by Center radar (nominal 12-sec samples) and Terminal radar (nominal 4.8-sec samples). Aircraft ground speed and ground track are estimated using real-time filtering, causing lags up to 60 sec, compromising performance of a tactical resolution tool. Offline smoothing of radar data reduces wild-point errors, provides a sample rate as high as 1 Hz, and yields more accurate and lag-free estimates of ground speed, ground track, and climb rate. Until full ADS-B implementation is available, smoothed radar data should provide reasonable track estimates for testing TSAFE in an ADS-B-like environment. An example illustrates the smoothing of radar data and shows a comparison of smoothed-radar and ADS-B tracking. This document is intended to serve as a guide for using the smoothing software.

Center/Tracon Radar↗

Air traffic management evaluation tool

Method and system for evaluating and implementing air traffic management tools and approaches for managing and avoiding an air traffic incident before the incident occurs. The invention provides flight plan routing and direct routing or wind optimal routing, using great circle navigation and spherical Earth geometry. The invention provides for aircraft dynamics effects, such as wind effects at each altitude, altitude changes, airspeed changes and aircraft turns to provide predictions of aircraft trajectory (and, optionally, aircraft fuel use). A second system provides several aviation applications using the first system. These applications include conflict detection and resolution, miles-in trail or minutes-in-trail aircraft separation, flight arrival management, flight re-routing, weather prediction and analysis and interpolation of weather variables based upon sparse measurements.

Sridhar, Banavar↗