SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Contour method”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

108 records · Page 6

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

Accelerating cosmological inference with Gaussian processes and neural networks – an application to LSST Y1 weak lensing and galaxy clustering

ABSTRACT Studying the impact of systematic effects, optimizing survey strategies, assessing tensions between different probes and exploring synergies of different data sets require a large number of simulated likelihood analyses, each of which cost thousands of CPU hours. In this paper, we present a method to accelerate cosmological inference using emulators based on Gaussian process regression and neural networks. We iteratively acquire training samples in regions of high posterior probability which enables accurate emulation of data vectors even in high dimensional parameter spaces. We showcase the performance of our emulator with a simulated 3×2 point analysis of LSST-Y1 with realistic theoretical and systematics modelling. We show that our emulator leads to high-fidelity posterior contours, with an order of magnitude speed-up. Most importantly, the trained emulator can be re-used for extremely fast impact and optimization studies. We demonstrate this feature by studying baryonic physics effects in LSST-Y1 3×2 point analyses where each one of our MCMC runs takes approximately 5 min. This technique enables future cosmological analyses to map out the science return as a function of analysis choices and survey strategy.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Fractal dimension of optical cirrus in Stripe82

ABSTRACT The geometric characteristics of dust clouds provide important information on the physical processes that structure such clouds. One of such characteristics is the 2D fractal dimension D of a cloud projected on to the sky plane. In previous studies, which were mostly based on infrared (IR) data, the fractal dimension of individual clouds was found to be in a range from 1.1 to 1.7 with a preferred value of 1.2–1.4. In this work, we use data from Stripe82 of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey to measure the fractal dimension of the cirrus clouds. This is done here for the first time for optical data with significantly better resolution as compared to IR data. To determine the fractal dimension, the perimeter-area method is employed. We also consider IR (IRAS and Herschel) counterparts of the corresponding optical fields to compare the results between the optical and IR. We find that the averaged fractal dimension across all clouds in the optical is $\langle D \rangle =1.69^{+0.05}_{-0.05}$ which is significantly larger than the fractal dimension of its IR counterparts $\langle D\rangle =1.38^{+0.07}_{-0.06}$. We examine several reasons for this discrepancy (choice of masking and minimal contour level, image and angular resolution, etc.) and find that for approximately half of our fields the different angular resolution (point spread function) of the optical and IR data can explain the difference between the corresponding fractal dimensions. For the other half of the fields, the fractal dimensions of the IR and visual data remain inconsistent, which can be associated with physical properties of the clouds, but further physical simulations are required to prove it.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Optimal toolpath generation system and method for additively manufactured composite materials

The present disclosure relates to a system for optimizing an additive manufacturing (AM) process. The system may use a printing component for using a material to form a component in a layer-by-layer process. An electronic controller may control movement of one of the printing component or a substrate on which the component is being formed, in a manner to optimize a toolpath for the printing component as each layer of the component is formed. Optimization operations are performed using an optimization subsystem which enables manufacturability constraints, as well as optimized toolpaths for each layer of the component, to be defined using contours of a level-set function. The level-set function may be used to define the optimized toolpaths within a fixed, predetermined grid, and the optimized toolpaths then used to generate suitable code for controlling movement of the printing component relative to the substrate to create the part or structure in a layer-by-layer process, using the optimized toolpaths.

Lewicki, James↗

DOE OSTI2024

Level-set topology optimization with PDE generated conformal meshes

This paper presents a level-set topology optimization approach that uses conformal meshes for the analysis of the displacement field. The structure’s boundary is represented by the iso-contour of a level-set field discretized on a fixed background design mesh. The conformal mesh is updated for each design iteration via a PDE based mesh morphing process that identifies the set of facets in the background mesh that are homeomorphic to the boundary and relaxes the homeomorphic mesh to conform to the structure’s boundary and ensure high element quality. The conformal mesh allows for a more accurate computation of the response versus density and some level-set based methods which interpolate material properties using the volume fraction. Numerical examples illustrate the proposed approach by optimizing linear-elastic two- and three-dimensional structures, wherein insight into the performance of the mesh morphing process is provided. The examples also highlight the scalability of the approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Energetic particle optimization of quasi-axisymmetric stellarator equilibria

Abstract An important goal of stellarator optimization is to achieve good confinement of energetic particles such as, in the case of a reactor, alphas created by deuterium–tritium fusion. In this work, a fixed-boundary stellarator equilibrium was re-optimized for energetic particle confinement via a two-step process: first, by minimizing deviations from quasi-axisymmetry (QA) on a single flux surface near the mid-radius, and secondly by maintaining this improved QA while minimizing the analytical quantity Γ C , which represents the angle between magnetic flux surfaces and contours of J | | , the second adiabatic invariant. This was performed multiple times, resulting in a group of equilibria with significantly reduced energetic particle losses, as evaluated by Monte Carlo simulations of alpha particles in scaled-up versions of the equilibria. This is the first time that energetic particle losses in a QA stellarator have successfully been reduced by optimizing Γ C . The relationship between energetic particle losses and metrics such as QA error ( E q a ) and Γ C in this set of equilibria were examined via statistical methods and a nearly linear relationship between volume-averaged Γ C and prompt particle losses was found.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

A semblance measure for model comparison

Algorithmic and computational advances have made it possible that geophysical survey and earth model design can be aided by many systematic trial inverse-modelling runs with synthetic data. Such may, for example, come up in machine-learning approaches. Automated image appraisal pertaining to such applications will involve common statistical tests for goodness-of-data fit as a primary evaluation method. However, solution non-uniqueness may render multiple images equivalent in terms of their data fit, requiring secondary categorizers. A logical choice for classifying synthetic-imaging results quantifies the goodness of model fit where a known reference model replaces the observational input. The task of model intercomparison in terms of measuring the resemblance to the reference model poses challenges to common distance-based metrics like root mean square error and mean absolute error. First, distance-based metrics can introduce spurious contributions when smooth models with fuzzy target contours are to be compared against a sharp reference. Second, large differences due to parameter-estimation overshoots can dominate distance metrics. Here, we propose a remedy that is referred to as semblance and is based on the idea of logistic functions, where a binary-dependent variable adds non-zero or zero accumulation terms for the, respectively, passing or failing of preset target thresholds. This classifying approach is amenable to an objective where model feature recognition is primary. Numerical comparisons to distance-based metrics provide evidence for the advantages of the semblance in view of this objective. Geophysical imaging in conjunction with machine-learning is seen as a benefitting upcoming application area.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Remote Radiation Sensing Using Aerial and Ground Platforms

Remote sensing of ionizing radiation has a significant role in waste management, nuclear material management and nonproliferation, and radiation safety. Robotic platforms can surpass the number of tasks that are achieved by humans. With this technique, the operator's radiation exposure can be decreased. Remote sensing allows for the evaluation and monitoring of radiological contamination. Gamma-ray and neutron sensors were integrated onto the robotic platforms. This approach allows for the radiation sensor data to be dynamically tracked and mapped thus enabling further analysis of the radiation flux in temporal and spatial domains. The goal is to complete scheduled tasks while the robot is being irradiated. To achieve this, electronic components must be shielded and radiation hardened. CZT Detector: Cadmium Zinc Telluride (CZT) detector technology has been a promising solution for gamma-ray and x-ray measurements. Detector data is transferred to the Odroid minicomputer that controls and powers the module via the USB. Robot Operating System (ROS) was utilized for data acquisition and data fusion. The Mariscotti method was employed for the spectrum analysis. A function was programmed in ROS for the automatic identification of photopeaks. CLYC Detector: A Cs{sub 2}LiYCl{sub 6}:Ce{sup 3+} (CLYC) detector was used for simultaneous medium-resolution gamma-ray measurements and neutron counting. A 2.54 cm diameter photomultiplier tube (PMT) was equipped with a high voltage supply and a miniature digitizer. Gamma-ray excitation: fast core-to-valence luminescence (CVL) with 1 ns decay constant, and prompt Ce{sup 3+} emission with 50 ns decay constant. Neutron excitation: slow cerium self-trapped excitation (Ce{sup 3+} STE), 1000 ns decay constant. Radiation Source Localization: Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and gradient-based methods were used to locate the position of a radiation source based on measured radiation intensities. Multi-Particle Transport Code FLUKA: Estimation of radiation damage of the electronic components is important in order to optimize the robot's operational time while it is irradiated. Displacement per atom (DPA) represents the radiation damage in materials exposed to the ionizing radiation. Various shielding layers of different thickness t were analyzed (< 5% statistical error). The model of the controller of the UAS was designed in FLUKA. Conclusion: CZT and CLYC detectors were integrated onto the robotic platforms. Radiation source localization and contour mapping using robotic platforms were studied. Functions for data analysis and fusion were developed in ROS. FLUKA code was utilized to analyze DPA values. Layers of low-density and high-density materials were used to shield the UAS electronics.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Basin-Scale Structural Features Database

The Basin-Scale Structural Features database provides spatial datasets of faults, fractures, folds, and earthquakes compiled from public, authoritative sources (e.g., U.S. Geological Survey and State Geological Surveys) and aggregated into derivative forms to support subsurface assessments. Recognizing that characterizing basin-scale structural features requires interpreting data that are often ambiguous or lack key information, the source data were evaluated using a knowledge-data framework and geospatial fuzzy logic method (Justman et al., 2020) to represent both measured (observed) and predicted (inferred or potential) structural features as derivative datasets. This workflow employs conceptual models for known structural features and predicted structural features, incorporating geospatial data to estimate potential, even with limited data. The aim is to aid and support an understanding of basin-scale features and identify potential gaps in data and knowledge. As of 4/30/2025, the database includes resources for nine sedimentary basins: Appalachian, Denver, U.S. Gulf Coast, Illinois, Michigan, Permian, Sacramento, San Joquin and Williston. The database is organized by basin and then data category: 1) Faults, fractures, folds, 2) Earthquakes, 3) Topographic, 4) Structural contours and isopachs, 5) Geophysical, and 6) Structural feature density assessment maps.

basin scale↗

DOE OSTI2020

Interlayer coupling induced quasiparticles

In this work, we present an exact treatment of layered many-body electronic systems in the presence of interlayer coupling within the Schwinger functional derivative approach on the Keldysh contour. Our transparent approach allows us to clarify the definition of interlayer coupling by showing the independent roles hybridization and interactions play in generating new electronic and magnetic excitations. We find interlayer coupling to induce a variety of plasmons, magnons, and excitons, residing within a layer, traversing between layers, or propagating along the interface. Moreover, we predict interfacial excitations, including an electron-hole pairing pathway, facilitated by previously ignored layer nonconserving interactions. Finally, we briefly explore the consequence of interlayer coupling on a bilayer square lattice system.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

System and method for large-scale PCB production including continuous selective adhesion

A method for the large-scale production of PCBs including a continuous selective adhesion process for creating printed circuit traces providing input to a production line. A roll of printed circuit traces is produced using rolls of flexible substrate, conductive layer, and conductive layer support by applying adhesive between the rolls of flexible substrate and conductive layer, bringing the rolls together, transferring a circuit pattern onto the flexible substrate, curing the adhesive through non-opaque areas of the circuit pattern, and separating the non-bonded areas. The resulting printed circuit traces are applied from the roll to mounts, and circuit components are applied from a roll to the traces as the mounts move along the line. Additional rolls of printed circuit traces and circuit components may be incorporated, and multi-layer PCBs may be produced. As part of the production line, the finished PCBs may be applied to flat or contoured products.

Hatch, Jonathan Douglas↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dose Rate Analysis of the WCS Consolidated Interim Storage Facility

This report describes a confirmatory calculation for a proposed consolidated interim storage facility (CISF) to support the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s review of the license application submitted by the Interim Storage Partners. The scope of this report is limited to an assessment of the annual dose from direct radiation associated with Phase 1 of the Waste Control Specialists (WCS) CISF and the determination of the minimum controlled area boundary based on the 10 CFR 72.104 limit of 25 mrem annual dose to the whole body. The confirmatory dose rate calculations used the source term and shielding calculation capabilities of the SCALE 6.2.3 computer code system. The calculation method employed in the confirmatory calculations uses a detailed Monte Carlo radiation transport simulation from source to dose rate. This method differs from the two-step method used in the safety analysis report (SAR), which requires determination of the photon and neutron energy and angular distributions on the cask external surface and then the use of this surface source in a new radiation transport calculation to determine dose rate as a function of distance from the storage facility. A simulation was made using the complete site geometry (all casks present) but with only one cask containing source, and a total of 467 independent calculations were performed to obtain the dose rate maps produced by each storage cask. Basic input data and assumptions used in the SAR (e.g., cask design parameters and design basis assembly characteristics) were used in this confirmatory calculation for consistency with the SAR. Local atmospheric conditions for skyshine calculations were simulated using US standard atmosphere data, which describe average air temperature, pressure, and density as a function of altitude. The determined minimum required distances from the WCS Phase 1 CISF to a contour defined by the 25 mrem annual dose limit were approximately 623 m (0.387 miles) in the N-NE direction, 594 m (0.369 miles) in the SSW direction, and 533 m (0.331 miles) in the E-SE direction and the W-NW direction. The annual dose results of the confirmatory calculation are in relatively good agreement with the annual dose values presented in the WCS SAR. The annual dose produced by the Phase 1 CISF at the nearest site boundary, 0.75 miles away from the CISF, was estimated by this study to be approximately 6.02E-02 ± 2.0E-04 mrem, which is significantly smaller than the 25 mrem annual dose limit provided in 10 CFR 72.104. The SAR annual dose rate value for the nearest site boundary was 7.52E-2 mrem, which included 7.73E-03 mrem due to postulated leakage of the FO-, FC-, and FF-canisters. A comparison with the dose rate values reported in the SAR for 16 detector locations, D1 through D16, on the protected area boundary is also included in this report. This comparison shows that the SAR determined higher annual dose values for detectors D1 through D14 by 12% to 45% and lower annual dose values for detectors D15 and D16 by 18% and 8%, respectively, as compared with this ORNL confirmatory calculation. Sensitivity studies have been performed to support a comprehensive review of the application. In these studies, the effects on dose rate of the modeled air volume, density, and humidity were analyzed. The sensitivity calculations showed that the air volume used in the Monte Carlo simulations was adequate and that a larger air volume would not further increase the dose rate due to skyshine contributions. The sensitivity analysis showed that simulation of local atmospheric conditions is important for the accuracy of dose rate estimates at large distances from the facility. Air humidity was demonstrated to have negligible effects on dose rate values for the simulated local atmospheric conditions.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-Resolution Sampling of a River Plume Front with Uncrewed Underwater and Aerial Vehicles

Sampling fast-propagating oceanic features is inherently challenging and demands versatile instrumentation and innovative strategies. This paper introduces a novel sampling strategy designed to capture such phenomena, exemplified by a river plume front. Our method revolves around modifying the preprogrammed pathway of an uncrewed underwater vehicle (UUV) to dynamically track and three-dimensionally sample the evolution of the front. To enable the UUV to follow the feature, we adapt the use of a drifting gateway buoy to be positioned and trapped at the front’s convergence zone, allowing underway navigation relative to the buoy. In our demonstration, we showcase the effectiveness of this strategy by successfully conducting over 30 crossings of a river plume front within a 6-h window. The UUV sensors allowed a comprehensive assessment of key front characteristics, including density, velocity, and turbulence. Supplemental drone footage contributed to the overall picture and facilitated the transformation of the dataset into a front-following reference frame. This article provides an in-depth description of the deployment strategy and required postcollection data processing, including frontal crossing detection, the assessment of the frontal orientation from drone footage, and defining the plume bottom boundaries using backscatter intensity contours.

autonomous observations↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deformations, relaxation, and broken symmetries in liquids, solids, and glasses: A unified topological field theory

Here, we combine hydrodynamic and field theoretic methods to develop a general theory of phonons as Goldstone bosons in crystals, glasses, and liquids based on nonaffine displacements and the consequent Goldstone phase relaxation. We relate the conservation, or lack thereof, of specific higher-form currents with properties of the underlying deformation field—nonaffinity—which dictates how molecules move under an applied stress or deformation. In particular, the single-valuedness of the deformation field is associated with conservation of higher-form charges that count the number of topological defects. Our formalism predicts, from first principles, the presence of propagating shear waves above a critical wave vector in liquids, thus giving a formal derivation of the phenomenon in terms of fundamental symmetries. The same picture provides also a theoretical explanation of the corresponding “positive sound dispersion” phenomenon for longitudinal sound. Importantly, accordingly to our theory, the main collective relaxation timescale of a liquid or a glass (known as the α relaxation for the latter) is given by the phase relaxation time, which is not necessarily related to the Maxwell time. Finally, we build a nonequilibrium effective action using the in-in formalism defined on the Schwinger-Keldysh contour, that further supports the emerging picture. In summary, our work suggests that the fundamental difference between solids, fluids, and glasses has to be identified with the associated generalized higher-form global symmetries and their topological structure, and that the Burgers vector for the displacement fields serves as a suitable topological order parameter distinguishing the solid (ordered) phase and the amorphous ones (fluids, glasses).

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Superconductivity from Luttinger surfaces: Emergent Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev physics with infinite-body interactions

The pairing of two electrons on a Fermi surface due to an infinitesimal attraction between them always results in a superconducting instability at zero temperature (T = 0). The equivalent question of pairing instability on a Luttinger surface (LS)—190a contour of zeros of the propagator—instead leads to a quantum critical point (QCP) that separates a non-Fermi liquid and superconductor. A surprising and little understood aspect of pair fluctuations at this QCP is that their thermodynamics maps to that of the Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev (SYK) model in the strong coupling limit. Here, we offer a simple justification for this mapping by demonstrating that (i) LS models share the reparametrization symmetry of the q → ∞ SYK model with q-body interactions close to the LS, and (ii) the enforcement of gauge invariance results in a $\frac{1}{√τ}$ (τ ~ T -1 ) behavior of the fluctuation propagator near the QCP, as is the feature of SYK conformal Green functions, but leaves the overall form of the free energy map robust.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analyzing the Validity of Brazilian Testing Using Digital Image Correlation and Numerical Simulation Techniques

Characterizing the mechanical behavior of rocks plays a crucial role to optimize the fracturing process in unconventional reservoirs. However, due to the intrinsic anisotropy and heterogeneity in unconventional resources, fracture process prediction remains the most significant challenge for sustainable and economic hydrocarbon production. During the deformation tracking under compression, deploying conventional methods (strain gauge, extensometer, etc.) is insufficient to measure the deformation since the physical attachment of the device is restricted to the size of the sample, monitoring limited point-wise deformation, producing difficulties in data retrieval, and a tendency to lose track in failure points, etc. Where conventional methods are limited, the application of digital image correlation (DIC) provides detailed and additional information of strain evolution and fracture patterns under loading. DIC is an image-based optical method that records an object with a camera and monitors the random contrast speckle pattern painted on the facing surface of the specimen. To overcome the existing limitations, this paper presents numerical modeling of Brazilian disc tests under quasi-static conditions to understand the full-field deformation behaviors and finally, it is validated by DIC. As the direct tensile test has limitations in sample preparation and test execution, the Brazilian testing principle is commonly used to evaluate indirectly the tensile strength of rocks. The two-dimensional numerical model was built to predict the stress distribution and full-field deformation on Brazilian disc under compression based on the assumptions of a homogenous, isotropic and linear elastic material. The uniaxial compression test was conducted using the DIC technique to determine the elastic properties of Spider Berea sandstone, which were used as inputs for the simulation model. The model was verified by the analytical solution and compared with the digital image correlation. The numerical simulation results showed that the solutions matched reasonably with the analytical solutions where the maximum deviation of stress distribution was obtained as 14.59%. The strain evolution (normal and shear strains) and displacements along the central horizontal and vertical planes were investigated in three distinguishable percentages of peak loads (20%, 40%, and 90%) to understand the deformation behaviors in rock. The simulation results demonstrated that the strain evolution contours consistently matched with DIC generated contours with a reasonable agreement. The changes in displacement along the central horizontal and vertical planes showed that numerical simulation and DIC generated experimental results were repeatable and matched closely. In terms of validation, Brazilian testing to measure the indirect tensile strength of rocks is still an issue of debate. The numerical model of fracture propagation supported by digital image correlation from this study can be used to explain the fracturing process in the homogeneous material and can be extended to non-homogeneous cases by incorporating heterogeneity, which is essential for rock mechanics field applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Proton and neutron density distributions at supranormal density in low- and medium-energy heavy-ion collisions. II. Central Pb + Pb collisions

This paper represents a continuation of our investigation into the limitations on total, proton, and neutron particle number densities, as well as the asymmetry of proton and neutron density distributions achievable in central heavy-ion collisions. We explore these aspects at low and medium energies within the framework of the Boltzmann-Uhlenbeck-Uehling (pBUU) transport and time-dependent Hartree-Fock (TDHF) models. Previous studies, focusing on symmetric and asymmetric collisions of Ca and Sn nuclei [1], and initial results on Pb-nuclei collisions [2], emphasized the role of the Coulomb interaction in these events. Our findings indicated that: (i) the highest total densities predicted at 𝐸 beam = 800 MeV/nucleon were on the order of ≈ 2.5⁢𝜌 0 (𝜌 0 = 0.16 fm −3 ), (ii) the proton-neutron asymmetry for maximal densities, 𝛿=(𝜌$^{max}_{n}$− 𝜌$^{max}_{p}$)/(𝜌$^{max}_{n}$+𝜌$^{max}_{p}$), did not generally exceed the asymmetry in the initial state of the collision at all beam energies and tended to decrease during the reaction, and (iii) a significant portion of this asymmetry had its microscopic origin in Coulomb forces, masking the pure nuclear contribution. These new findings, particularly relevant in the astrophysical context, are further examined in this work, focusing on the heaviest target-projectile combination 212,208 Pb accessible in an experiment. We introduce the SkT3 Skyrme force model, not previously used for the Pb system, and compare it to the SV-bas and SV-sym34 models to explore the symmetry-energy dependence of the results. Contour plots of nucleonic densities are presented, contrasting the time evolution of the density distributions in low (TDHF) and high (pBUU) models. We also present the evolution of normalized maximal proton, neutron, and total nucleon number density with increasing beam energy in the full pBUU model and the Vlasov approximation, aiming to explore the impact of correlations in the reaction. The time evolution of the proton and neutron density distributions in the plane transverse to the beam direction is illustrated at both low and high beam energy. In conclusion, our detailed examination of the Pb system in this work provides further essential evidence that the aforementioned findings (i)–(iii) are only weakly dependent on system size and a symmetry-energy model, and thus, they are of more general importance.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian Approach to Estimation of Water Table Elevations Using Historical Rasters as Prior Information 2019 - 20430

In cases of complex but only partially known geology and a lack of spatial control in observation well locations, water table elevation estimation is very challenging. In some cases, auxiliary information, such as observations of the movement of tracers, operation of injection and extraction wells, and calibration of groundwater models against the historical elevation data, can be combined with expert judgement to estimate flow directions in areas of sparse data and to aid in the production of more reliable contour maps (and associated rasters) than could be produced by relying on sparse well elevation data alone. Given a historical sequence of these raster maps, the question arises how to automate, to the extent possible, the process of producing new raster maps to reflect data from previous times, the current data and the operation of expert judgement. One solution is to adopt a Bayesian point of view and to regard the historical well elevation data, auxiliary information and historical raster maps as prior information. The well elevations for water table wells, as well as those for injection/extraction wells and the data associated with other relevant variables, can be viewed as predictors for the raster surface. From this prior information, we can, conditional on the values of these predictors for a new time period, compute an expected value map and a standard deviation map for the new raster. These then can be taken to specify a prior predictive distribution for the pixels in the new raster map. Then we condition the pixels, corresponding to water level observation wells within the raster, on the observed values in those wells (which in general will differ from the regression estimate) for the new time period. Given the smoothness of the water table surface, we then smooth the surface of deviations from the mean surface, based on the variograms of the historical rasters, and add this smoothed surface to the regression mean surface. The error structure of the produced raster map is defined by the regression error structure and the error due to smoothing based on the estimated variograms. This methodology has been developed and is being further refined for groundwater monitoring and remediation at LANL. It is a very flexible method that can also be applied with a variety of other predictors applied to model the water level wells in the area of interest over the historical record. The smoothness of the spatial process and its possible evolution over time can then be estimated from the residuals from this regression. This can be augmented by expert hydrogeological opinion based on site topography and hydrogeology. (authors)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

IceCat-1: The IceCube Event Catalog of Alert Tracks

We present a catalog of likely astrophysical neutrino track-like events from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. IceCube began reporting likely astrophysical neutrinos in 2016, and this system was updated in 2019. The catalog presented here includes events that were reported in real time since 2019, as well as events identified in archival data samples starting from 2011. We report 275 neutrino events from two selection channels as the first entries in the catalog, the IceCube Event Catalog of Alert Tracks, which will see ongoing extensions with additional alerts. The Gold and Bronze alert channels respectively provide neutrino candidates with a 50% and 30% probability of being astrophysical, on average assuming an astrophysical neutrino power-law energy spectral index of 2.19. For each neutrino alert, we provide the reconstructed energy, direction, false-alarm rate, probability of being astrophysical in origin, and likelihood contours describing the spatial uncertainty in the alert's reconstructed location. We also investigate a directional correlation of these neutrino events with gamma-ray and X-ray catalogs, including 4FGL, 3HWC, TeVCat, and Swift-BAT.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗