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DOE OSTI2022

Feedstock to Function (F2F) v1

The Feedstock to Function (F2F) tool was designed to help scientists and companies explore viable biofuels and bioproducts early in the R&D cycle to support more productive experimentation, while reducing early-stage exploration from months/years to days/weeks (feedstock-to-function.lbl.gov). The tool focuses on using machine learning to predict biomass-derived molecule properties, while evaluating the cost, benefits, and risks of promising molecules for sustainable aviation fuels. The tool successfully predicts (within 15% of experimental values) high-throughput aviation properties for over 10,000 molecules while enabling users to explore new possibilities and opportunities rapidly and effortlessly. It also links to lightweight life-cycle analysis and techno-economic tools for cost and emissions analyses. Predicted molecule properties include melting point, boiling point, flash point, yield sooting index, and heat of combustion. To date, F2F is more expansive and outperforms several other molecule property prediction models while enabling users (scientists, companies, and policy makers) to explore new possibilities and opportunities rapidly and effortlessly. F2F provides the foundation for developing an adaptive computational tool that predicts properties, cost, benefits, and risk of promising new and uncertified alternative jet fuel pathways and their blending effects.

Rapp, Vi↗

DOE OSTI2022

Adversarial Sampling-Based Motion Planning

In this report there are many scenarios in which a mobile agent may not want its path to be predictable. Examples include preserving privacy or confusing an adversary. However, this desire for deception can conflict with the need for a low path cost. Optimal plans such as those produced by RRT* may have low path cost, but their optimality makes them predictable. Similarly, a deceptive path that features numerous zig-zags may take too long to reach the goal. We address this trade-off by drawing inspiration from adversarial machine learning. We propose a new planning algorithm, which we title Adversarial RRT*. Adversarial RRT* attempts to deceive machine learning classifiers by incorporating a predicted measure of deception into the planner cost function. Adversarial RRT* considers both path cost and a measure of predicted deceptiveness in order to produce a trajectory with low path cost that still has deceptive properties. We demonstrate the performance of Adversarial RRT*, with two measures of deception, using a simulated Dubins vehicle. We show how Adversarial RRT* can decrease cumulative RNN accuracy across paths to 10%, compared to 46% cumulative accuracy on near-optimal RRT* paths, while keeping path length within 16% of optimal. We also present an example demonstration where the Adversarial RRT* planner attempts to safely deliver a high value package while an adversary observes the path and tries to intercept the package.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Tula: Optimizing Time, Cost, and Generalization in Distributed Large-Batch Training

Distributed training increases the number of batches processed per iteration either by scaling-out (adding more nodes) or scaling-up (increasing the batch-size). However, the largest configuration does not necessarily yield the best performance. Horizontal scaling introduces additional communication overhead, while vertical scaling is constrained by computation cost and device memory limits. Thus, simply increasing the batch-size leads to diminishing returns: training time and cost decrease initially but eventually plateaus, creating a knee-point in the time/cost vs. batch-size pareto curve. The optimal batch-size therefore depends on the underlying model, data and available compute resources. Large batches also suffer from worse model quality due to the well-known “generalization gap”. In this paper, we present Tula, an online service that automatically optimizes time, cost, and convergence quality for large-batch training of convolutional models. It combines parallel-systems modeling with statistical performance prediction to identify the optimal batchsize. Tula predicts training time and cost within 7.5−14% error across multiple models, and achieves up to 20× overall speedup and improves test accuracy by ≈9% on average over standard large-batch training on various vision tasks, thus successfully mitigating the generalization gap and accelerating training at the same time.

Tyagi, Sahil [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000783144745)↗

DOE OSTI2023

QES-Plume v1.0: a Lagrangian dispersion model

Low-cost simulations providing accurate predictions of transport of airborne material in urban areas, vegetative canopies, and complex terrain are demanding because of the small-scale heterogeneity of the features influencing the mean flow and turbulence fields. Common models used to predict turbulent transport of passive scalars are based on the Lagrangian stochastic dispersion model. The Quick Environmental Simulation (QES) tool is a low-computational-cost framework developed to provide high-resolution wind and concentration fields in a variety of complex atmospheric-boundary-layer environments. Part of the framework, QES-Plume, is a Lagrangian dispersion code that uses a time-implicit integration scheme to solve the generalized Langevin equations which require mean flow and turbulence fields. Here, QES-Plume is driven by QES-Winds, a 3D fast-response model that computes mass-consistent wind fields around buildings, vegetation, and hills using empirical parameterizations, and QES-Turb, a local-mixing-length turbulence model. In this paper, the particle dispersion model is presented and validated against analytical solutions to examine QES-Plume’s performance under idealized conditions. In particular, QES-Plume is evaluated against a classical Gaussian plume model for an elevated continuous point-source release in uniform flow, the Lagrangian scaling of dispersion in isotropic turbulence, and a non-Gaussian plume model for an elevated continuous point-source release in a power-law boundary-layer flow. In these cases, QES-Plume yields a maximum relative error below 6 % when compared with analytical solutions. In addition, the model is tested against wind-tunnel data for a uniform array of cubical buildings. QES-Plume exhibits good agreement with the experiment with 99 % of matched zeros and 59 % of the predicted concentrations falling within a factor of 2 of the experimental concentrations. Furthermore, results also emphasize the importance of using high-quality turbulence models for particle dispersion in complex environments. Finally, QES-Plume demonstrates excellent computational performance.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Accurate prediction of core-level spectra of radicals at density functional theory cost via square gradient minimization and recoupling of mixed configurations

State-specific orbital optimized approaches are more accurate at predicting core-level spectra than traditional linear-response protocols, but their utility had been restricted due to the risk of "variational collapse" down to the ground state. We employ the recently developed square gradient minimization algorithm to reliably avoid variational collapse and study the effectiveness of orbital optimized density functional theory (DFT) at predicting second period element 1s core-level spectra of open-shell systems. Several density functionals (including SCAN, B3LYP, and ωB97X-D3) are found to predict excitation energies from the core to singly occupied levels with high accuracy (≤0.3 eV RMS error) against available experimental data. Higher excited states are, however, more challenging by virtue of being intrinsically multiconfigurational. We thus present a configuration interaction inspired route to self-consistently recouple single determinant mixed configurations obtained from DFT, in order to obtain approximate doublet states. This recoupling scheme is used to predict the C K-edge spectra of the allyl radical, the O K-edge spectra of CO + , and the N K-edge of NO 2 with high accuracy relative to experiment, indicating substantial promise in using this approach for the computation of core-level spectra for doublet species [vs more traditional time dependent DFT, equation of motion coupled cluster singles and doubles (EOM-CCSD), or using unrecoupled mixed configurations]. Finally, we also present general guidelines for computing core-excited states from orbital optimized DFT.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Integrated Dynamic Facade Control with an Agent-based Architecture for Commercial Buildings

Dynamic façades have significant technical potential to minimize heating, cooling, and lighting energy use and peak electric demand in the perimeter zone of commercial buildings, but the performance of these systems is reliant on being able to balance complex trade-offs between solar control, daylight admission, comfort, and view over the life of the installation. As the context for controllable energy-efficiency technologies grows more complex with the increased use of intermittent renewable energy resources on the grid, it has become increasingly important to look ahead towards more advanced approaches to integrated systems control in order to achieve optimum life-cycle performance at a lower cost. This study examines the feasibility of a model predictive control system for low-cost autonomous dynamic façades. A system architecture designed around lightweight, simple agents is proposed. The architecture accommodates whole building and grid level demands through its modular, hierarchical approach. Automatically-generated models for computing window heat gains, daylight illuminance, and discomfort glare are described. The open source Modelica and JModelica software tools were used to determine the optimum state of control given inputs of window heat gains and lighting loads for a 24-hour optimization horizon. Penalty functions for glare and view/ daylight quality were implemented as constraints. The control system was tested on a low-power controller (1.4 GHz single core with 2 GB of RAM) to evaluate feasibility. The target platform is a low-cost ($35/unit) embedded controller with 1.2 GHz dual-core cpu and 1 GB of RAM. Configuration and commissioning of the curtainwall unit was designed to be largely plug and play with minimal inputs required by the manufacturer through a web-based user interface. An example application was used to demonstrate optimal control of a three-zone electrochromic window for a south-facing zone. The overall approach was deemed to be promising. Further engineering is required to enable scalable, turnkey solutions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Materials Research Pathway Technical Program Plan

The Materials Research (MR) Pathway within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program is charged with performing the research and development (R&D) to develop the scientific basis for understanding and predicting long-term environmental degradation behavior of materials in nuclear reactors. Furthermore, it is essential to use the mechanistic understanding of degradation phenomena in materials to develop mitigation, repair, and new material alternatives for existing components. The work will provide data and methods to assess performance of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) essential to safe and sustained reactor operations. The R&D products developed from the LWRS Program will be used by utilities, industry groups, and regulators to inform operational and regulatory requirements for materials in reactor SSCs subjected to long-term operation conditions, providing key input to both regulators and industry. The intent of this research is to help in reducing the operating costs, which may be in the form of offset maintenance costs due to better predictive models for component lifetimes, improved analysis of materials through nondestructive evaluation, reduced costs for repairs, or extended performance of plants through the selection of improved replacement materials. To best achieve this, industry experience and guidance are important as is their role in coordinated or collaborative research projects. The objectives of this report are to describe the motivation and organization of the MR Pathway within the LWRS Program, provide details on the individual research tasks within the MR Pathway, describe the outcomes and deliverables of the MR Pathway, including recent technical highlights and progress, and list the requirements for performing the research.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Direct Prediction of Phonon Density of States With Euclidean Neural Networks

Abstract Machine learning has demonstrated great power in materials design, discovery, and property prediction. However, despite the success of machine learning in predicting discrete properties, challenges remain for continuous property prediction. The challenge is aggravated in crystalline solids due to crystallographic symmetry considerations and data scarcity. Here, the direct prediction of phonon density‐of‐states (DOS) is demonstrated using only atomic species and positions as input. Euclidean neural networks are applied, which by construction are equivariant to 3D rotations, translations, and inversion and thereby capture full crystal symmetry, and achieve high‐quality prediction using a small training set of examples with over 64 atom types. The predictive model reproduces key features of experimental data and even generalizes to materials with unseen elements, and is naturally suited to efficiently predict alloy systems without additional computational cost. The potential of the network is demonstrated by predicting a broad number of high phononic specific heat capacity materials. The work indicates an efficient approach to explore materials' phonon structure, and can further enable rapid screening for high‐performance thermal storage materials and phonon‐mediated superconductors.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Light Water Reactor Sustainability: Program Materials Research Pathway (FY22 Technical Program Plan)

The Materials Research (MR) Pathway within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program is charged with performing R&D to develop the scientific basis for understanding and predicting the long-term environmental degradation behavior of materials in nuclear reactors. Furthermore, the mechanistic understanding of degradation phenomena in materials must be leveraged to develop mitigation and repair strategies and new material alternatives for existing components. This research will provide data and methods to assess the performance of systems, structures, and components essential to safe and sustained reactor operations. The R&D products developed from the LWRS program will be used by stakeholders—including utilities, industry groups, and regulators—to inform operational and regulatory requirements for materials in reactor systems, structures, and components subjected to long-term operation conditions, providing key inputs to regulators and industry. Therefore, the intent of this research is to provide options to reduce the operating costs, which may be in the form of offset maintenance costs due to better predictive models for component lifetimes, improved analyses of materials through nondestructive evaluation, reduced costs for repairs, or extended performance of plants through the selection of improved replacement materials. To provide the best options, industry experience and guidance are important because of their role in coordinated or collaborative research projects. The objectives of this report are to describe the motivation and organization of the MR Pathway within the LWRS program; provide details on the individual research tasks within the MR Pathway; describe the outcomes and deliverables of the MR Pathway, including recent technical highlights and progress; and describe the requirements for performing this critically important research.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

An accelerated framework for predicting creep rupture lifetimes in engineering alloys

Confidently predicting high-temperature deformation, including creep and creep rupture, is paramount for the design and commercialization of candidate materials for advanced nuclear energy systems. To accelerate creep quantification, we introduce a framework that enables rapid, cost-effective, and reliable prediction of creep rupture lifetimes, minimizing reliance on time-intensive bulk creep testing. Unlike conventional creep analysis, which requires extensive time and resources, our method leverages a maximum of four short-term bulk creep tests as training data for prediction. This framework combines high-throughput nanoindentation up to 700 °C with these targeted bulk tests to inform our creep rupture model in order to predict rupture lifetimes. The strong agreement between our predictions and conventional experimental data demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach for accelerated creep analysis and lifetime prediction of structural components in high-temperature applications. Our multi-pronged approach motivates further integration of computational tools and advanced instrumentation to establish a universal framework for understanding high-temperature material responses.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cryogenic Carbon Capture™ (CCC) Status Report

The Cryogenic Carbon Capture™ (CCC) process separates CO2 from light gases in essentially any continuous process. CCC cools the gases to the frost or desublimation point of CO2 (-100 to -135 °C), separates and pressurizes the solids, and warms all streams to produce a CO2-depleted stream at ambient pressure and a pure (99+%) pressurized liquid CO2 stream typically to about 150 bar, both at ambient temperature. The process also recovers all gas moisture and most gas impurities less volatile than CO2 (NOx, SOx, Hg, PM, UHC, CCC, etc.) in separable streams. CCC nearly eliminates refrigeration energy for sensible temperature changes through heat integration. CCC does require energy to change the CO2 phase from a mixed vapor to a pressurized fluid, which represents the minimum energy required of any process for this separation. CCC uses additional energy for turbomachinery inefficiencies, heat losses, moisture removal and overall process pressure drop. Aside from these real-world energy demands, CCC operates near the minimum energy required to perform this gas separation by minimizing stream recycling. CCC compresses CO2 as a liquid, which is one of several reasons it costs about about half as much and consumes about half as much energy as an amine process when using flue gases with about 15% CO2. The process also has several major additional advantages, including (a) it is a bolt-on retrofit technology that does not need steam or any modification of existing equipment, (b) it recovers water and nearly all pollutants in addition to CO2 from the flue gas, (c) it enables highly efficient and cost effective energy storage at grid scale and on time scales of minutes, (d) it enables NG storage if the energy storage option is used, and (d) it has a small footprint and is minimally disruptive to existing plants, requiring only electrical power and a gas source to operate. Sustainable Energy Solutions (SES) has scaled this technology through several levels, the largest of which captures nominally 1 tonne of CO2/day and is called the skid system. Skid system field tests include utility-scale power plants, cement plants, heating plants, and other utility or industrial sites that burn natural gas, biomass, coal, shredded tires, municipal waste, and combinations of these fuels. These field tests produced 95-99% CO2 capture with CO2 purities of 99+% and initial CO2 contents that range from 4 to 28%. SES currently seeks to scale the system to merchant scale (10-80 tonnes of CO2 per day). In the process of doing so, SES has demonstrated the potential for CCC to contribute to energy storage and direct air capture in innovative and cost-effective ways. This presentation discusses the overall process and highlights results from field and in-house tests. These include (a) measured CO2 capture rates and operating conditions from in-house and field tests, and (b) predicted utility-scale costs and energy demands. This discussion also includes the application of the CCC technology to energy storage and direct air capture.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Exploring the Structural, Dynamic, and Functional Properties of Metal–Organic Frameworks through Molecular Modeling

This review spotlights the role of atomic-level modeling in research on metal-organic frameworks (MOFs), especially the key methodologies of density functional theory (DFT), Monte Carlo (MC) simulations, and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. The discussion focuses on how periodic and cluster-based DFT calculations can provide novel insights into MOF properties, with a focus on predicting structural transformations, understanding thermodynamic properties and catalysis, and providing information or properties that are fed into classical simulations such as force field parameters or partial charges. Classical simulation methods, highlighting force field selection, databases of MOFs for high-throughput screening, and the synergistic nature of MC and MD simulations, are described. By predicting equilibrium thermodynamic and dynamic properties, these methods offer a wide perspective on MOF behavior and mechanisms. Additionally, the incorporation of machine learning (ML) techniques into quantum and classical simulations is discussed. These methods can enhance accuracy, expedite simulation setup, reduce computational costs, as well as predict key parameters, optimize geometries, and estimate MOF stability. By charting the growth and promise of computational research in the MOF field, the aim is to provide insights and recommendations to facilitate the incorporation of computational modeling more broadly into MOF research.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Integration of discrete-event dynamics and machining dynamics for machine tool: Modeling, analysis and algorithms

Machining dynamics research lays a solid foundation for machining operations by providing stable combinations of spindle speed and depth of cut. Furthermore, machine learning has been applied to predict tool life as a function of cutting speed. However, the existing research does not consider the discrete-event dynamics in machine shop, i.e., the machine tool needs to process a series of parts in queue under various practical production requirements. This paper addresses the integration of discrete-event dynamics and machining dynamics to achieve cost savings in machining. A learning-based cost function is first proposed for the studied integrated optimization problem of machine tool. The proposed cost function utilizes the predicted tool life under different stable cutting speeds for further optimizing speed selection of machine tool to deal with the discrete-event dynamics in machine shop. Then, according to the practical production requirements, effective mathematical optimization models are developed for the related integrated optimization problems with the consideration of cost, makespan and due date, respectively. Numerical results show the effectiveness of our proposed methods and also the potential to be used in practice.

Ma, Mason↗

DOE OSTI2022

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) Fiscal Years 2019-2021(Final Report)

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is the leading public source of high-resolution solar resource data in the United States, with more than 166,000 users annually. This database represents the state of the art in satellite-based estimation of solar resource information and uses a unique physics-based modeling approach that enables improvements in accuracy with the deployment of the next-generation geostationary satellites. Making the highest quality, state-of-the-art, regularly updated data sets available on a timely basis for users reduces costs of solar deployment by providing accurate information for siting studies and system output prediction, and thereby reduces levelized cost of energy. Also, high-resolution information from the NSRDB enables moving beyond levelized cost of energy when valuing the impact of renewables on the grid. Additionally, the NSRDB enables the integration of large amounts of solar on the grid by providing critical information about solar availability and variability that is used to enhance grid reliability and power quality.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Anisotropic yield models for lattice unit cell structures exploiting orthotropic symmetry

We report numerical homogenization enables efficient computational analysis and design of multiscale structures made of micro-architected materials including lattice unit cells. However, predicting yield is nontrivial because it requires accurate and efficient predictions of the maximum stress inside the homogenized unit cells. To address this challenge, we develop a macroscale anisotropic yield function for micro-architected materials. The yield function depends on the three-dimensional macroscale stress state and the parameters describing a family of micro-architectures, such as the radii of the struts in a lattice unit cell. To ensure accuracy, we determine the maximum stress using three-dimensional continuum finite-element analysis. To ensure efficiency, we construct surrogate models from the aforementioned high-fidelity results for yield prediction. To reduce simulation costs and surrogate modeling complexity, we leverage orthotropic symmetry commonly found in lattice unit cells. In this paper, we provide a thorough presentation of group representations and the systematic procedure to exploit orthotropic domain symmetry in homogenization and surrogate modeling. We illustrate the use of linear homogenization results to predict yield in specific unit cells without further simulations. We furthermore show that surrogate modeling presents a viable option for anisotropic yield prediction in a continuously parametrized family of micro-architectures. More specifically, despite the dimensionality and degree of nonlinearity in the maximum micro von Mises stress within the unit cell, the surrogate models can predict it with less than 5% error at least 90% of the time. Moreover, the largest under-prediction error, which is more critical than the over-prediction error, is typically less than 10%.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Efficient data-driven models for prediction and optimization of geothermal power plant operations

Increasing the capacity of geothermal energy as a renewable resource calls for development and deployment of efficient control and optimization technologies for geothermal power plants. A data-driven prediction and optimization model is presented as a cost-effective and efficient alternative to physics-based approach. The model predicts power output and operational cost by propagating the influence of control and disturbance variables within an artificial neural network (ANN). Numerical experiments with simulated and field data from a real geothermal power plant are first used to demonstrate the prediction performance of the ANN model. The model is then adopted to maximize the net predicted power production by automatically adjusting the working fluid circulation rate. The optimization performance of the model in evaluated using a thermodynamic flowsheet simulation model. The workflow is applied to model and control the effect of ambient temperature on an air-cooled binary cycle power plant, which is complex and costly to perform using a physics-based predictive model. As a result, the performance of the method is demonstrated by applying it to both simulated and field datasets from a binary cycle geothermal power plant.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Imitating the “breeder's eye”: Predicting grain yield from measurements of non‐yield traits

Abstract Plant breeding relies on information gathered from field trials to select promising new crop varieties for release to farmers and to develop genomic prediction models that can enhance the efficiency of genetic improvement in future breeding cycles. However, generating the genetic marker data required to apply genomic prediction at the early stages of a breeding program remains costly for many public‐sector breeding programs as well as for many plant breeders operating in developing countries. As the pace of climate change intensifies, the time lag of developing and deploying new crop varieties requires plant breeders to make selection decisions without knowing the future environments those crop varieties will encounter in farmers’ fields. Therefore, both lower cost and higher accuracy methods for prediction of crop performance are essential for creating and maintaining resilient agricultural systems in the latter half of the 21 st century. To address this challenge, we conducted linked yield trials of 752 public maize ( Zea mays ) genotypes in two distinct environments. We developed and trained a phenotypic prediction model to predict yield from manually scored plant traits. The phenotypic prediction approach we employed outperformed genomic prediction in predicting yields in a second environment, with 8.7%–63% higher R 2 and 4%–13% less root mean square error than the genomic prediction. The phenotypic prediction has the potential to be applied to a wider range of breeding programs, including those that lack the resources to genotype large populations, such as programs in the developing world, breeding programs for specialty crops, and public sector programs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Model Predictive Control-Based Dual-Mode Operation of an Energy-Stored Quasi-Z-Source Photovoltaic Power System

The energy-stored quasi-Z-source inverter (ES-qZSI) has attracted much attention for photovoltaic (PV) power generations, due to its capability to stabilize the PV power fluctuations with simple structure and other advantages of Z-source inverter. The improved dual-mode (DM) ES-qZSI is able to support all-weather operation even at night or cloudy days when PV power is extremely low. However, the traditional proportional–integral (PI) based control suffers from complicated controller design and poor dynamic response during mode transition, due to two sets of PI control required for the daytime and night operation modes. In order to overcome that, here in this article, we propose a model predictive control strategy for the DM-ES-qZSI PV power system. The system predictive models in both day and night operating modes are derived. The control strategy is disclosed to ensure high performance of the system, through calling the predictive models and defined cost functions of the two modes within a single control loop. Simulation and experiment are carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗