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Identifying Nuclear Data Correlated Through Predicting Bias in Integral Experiments via Applying Principal Component Analysis to Random Forest
ABSTRACT Nuclear data (ND) are the input data for neutron‐transport simulations to answer questions related to nuclear technologies. Subsets of ND, here > 20,000 data points, are validated with respect to thousands of criticality experiments that represent various applications on a small scale. The aim of validation with these experiments is to find errors in ND or methods. The key challenge here is that several hundreds of ND are used to simulate one integral value. Hence, one cannot clearly identify what ND are leading to bias in criticality measurements. In fact, a mistake in one nuclear‐data observable can be compensated with an error in another, and the predicted criticality value would still be predicted in agreement with experimental data. Random forest (RF) was previously employed to predict bias in criticality measurements using sensitivities of simulated criticality experiments to ND. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) metric was then applied to attribute the importance of each ND experiment and observable to bias prediction. This, however, did not highlight what ND were jointly related to predicting bias. This is important as it could inform us about where compensating errors in ND could hide. We tackle this shortcoming here by first decomposing the ND sensitivities to integral‐experiment simulations into principal components. Then we use principal component projections to predict bias via the RF and SHAP. The SHAP values and principal components are employed to reconstruct detailed SHAP values for each ND observable. We demonstrate that these extended SHAP bias predictions are more robust, less noisy, and more efficient. In addition, we show that this approach accounts for covariance in ND sensitivities and automates the identification of where compensating errors could hide in ND.
Updated Guidance on Sensitivity/Uncertainty Methods Use for Nuclear Criticality Safety Validation
The use of sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) methods in nuclear criticality safety (NCS) was established more than 25 years ago and has been increasing ever since. Recent interest in commercial applications involving uranium enrichments above 5 wt% 235 U has increased focus on demonstrating the applicability of existing critical experiments to this enrichment range. S/U techniques can also be particularly useful in assessing the similarity of new fuel forms in relation to those documented in existing published evaluations of benchmark critical experiments. Publishing updated recommendations for the use of these methods is thus important to ensure that new S/U practitioners can benefit from the years of development and application invested in generating a set of best practices to maximize the utility of these tools.
Low-gravity experiments in critical phenomena
Studies of anomalous thermodynamic, transport, and structural phenomena in multibody systems near critical points are reviewed. The nomenclature used to describe critical points is explained; theoretical predictions of the thermodynamic properties of bulk systems are presented; and experimental tests of these predictions systems are discussed, considering equilibration and gravity effects in fluid systems and emphasizing the value of experiments conducted in a reduced-gravity environment. Several such experiments are described, and the available academic-research opportunities are briefly surveyed.
Results of critical velocity experiments with barium, strontium, and calcium releases from CRRES satellite
As part of the NASA Combined Release and Radiation Effects Satellite (CRRES) chemical release program in September 1990, two Ba and also one each Sr and Ca canisters of a boron-titanium thermite mixture, which vaporizes the element on ignition, were released near perigee after dusk in the South Pacific to study the critical velocity effect proposed by Alfven. The critical velocities of these three elements are 2.7, 3.5, and 5.4 km/s respectively, all well below the orbital velocity of 9.4 km/s. On September 10, 1990, a Sr and Ba pair (G-13, or critical ionization velocity (CIV) I) was released near Rarotonga at approximately 515 km altitude in a background electron density of 3.4 x 10(exp 6)/cu cm. On September 14, 1990, G-14 or CIV II released a Ca and Ba pair west of New Caledonia near 595 km at an electron density of 1.5 x 10(exp 6)/cu cm. Ions of all three elements were observed with low-light level imagers from two aircraft after they had transited up the magnetic field lines into the sunlight. Emissions from the spherically expanding neutral gas shells below the solar terminator, observed with cameras filtered for the Ba(+) ion line at 4554 A and also in unfiltered imagers for approximately 15 s after release, are probably due to excitation by hot electrons created in the CIV process. The ions created clearly lost much of their energy, which we now show can be explained by elastic collisions: Ba(+) + O. Inventories of the observed ions indicate yields of 0.15% and 1.84% for Ba in the first and second experiments, 0.02% for Sr and 0.27% for Ca. Ionization from all the releases continued along the satellite trajectory much longer (greater than 45 s) than expected for a CIV process. The ion production along the satellite track versus time typically shows a rapid rise to a peak in a few seconds followed by an exponential decrease to a level essentially constant rate. The characteristic distances for CIV I and II are 47 and 62 km, respectively. We interpret the early time rise and exponential fall to be due to CIV ionization, of 0.014% (CIV I) and 0.40% (CIV II) for the Ba releases. The later ions produced at a constant rate probably have origins from other such processes as stripping and associative ionization collisions with atmospheric constituents primarily O, and charge exchange with O(+), He(+), and H(+). We suggest that the much larger Ba ionization rate in CIV II than CIV I is due to the fact that the release occurred in the peak Ca density where hot electrons were already present.
Participation in and Assessment of the Second DNCSH Public Workshop
The DOE/NRC Criticality Safety for Commercial-Scale HALEU Fuel Cycle and Transportation (DNCSH) project was established through the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (H.R. 5376) to support the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and industry in addressing critical experiment validation gaps that impede the licensing basis and regulatory approval of high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) operations. An initial public workshop was held in February 2024 to address HALEU transportation validation gaps. The resulting call for proposals was released in April and resulted in funding for the execution and/or evaluation of 16 critical experiments. A second public workshop was held in August 2025 to address facility and operational validation gaps, precluding a second call for proposals. A list of attendees is provided in APPENDIX A, Table A-1. A total of 319 participants joined the meeting, which was hosted online via Microsoft Teams as well as in person. The slides from the meeting were uploaded online to the NRC’s Agencywide Documents Access and Management System (ADAMS). The meeting agenda is provided in Table 1-1. In preparation for the meeting, a study was performed to examine expected fissile forms for the fuel cycles of various fuel types at different stages of production and the apparent validation gaps. The resulting report, titled “Benchmark Gap Assessment for the Manufacturing of High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium Fuels,” provided the foundation for the discussions that took place during the workshop. The discussions and the validation gaps in the report were used to develop the second call for proposals. The present report presents the feedback received before, during, and after the second workshop. All the data presented are based on voluntarily self-reported identification, opinions from workshop participants, and survey responses and are assumed to be as accurate as practically reasonable. The discussions during the workshop and the subsequent survey responses were intended to direct attention to industry-specific areas of interest and to collect feedback on the work performed to date by the DNCSH project.
Godiva IV Simulated Radiation Field Characterization and Variance Reduction
Godiva IV is a system comprised of highly enriched uranium alloyed with molybdenum in the form of fuel plate rings. The reactor, along with its predecessors, was designed with the unique ability to satisfy interests in the super-prompt-critical reactor operation space. Originally, the reactor was part of the Los Alamos Critical Experiments Facility (LACEF) at Technical Area-18 (TA-18). The radiation field around Godiva at this facility was well characterized and understood. As a fast neutron system, the neutron spectrum in and around Godiva was close to a Watt Fission spectrum. The Kiva where Godiva IV was located at LACEF was made of thin, sheet metal walls which did not contribute significantly to the neutron spectrum. Following the transition of LACEF to the National Critical Experiments and Research Center (NCERC) in Nevada, Godiva-IV was moved from TA-18 to the Device Assembly Facility (DAF) at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). Part of this move brought renewed interest in radiation field characterization. The new facility introduced significant changes to the environment surrounding Godiva, and preliminary foil irradiation results suggested that the room contribution to the neutron spectrum was significant. Unlike at TA-18, a large thermal neutron signature was added to the fast spectrum from Godiva due to significant room return. A primary goal due to the additional complexity that the room return adds to the Godiva IV radiation emission spectrum was the development of an efficient Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) calculation capable of characterizing the neutron spectrum anywhere in the room around Godiva. A campaign of activation foil irradiations and analysis were completed to support the validation of the MCNP model. The modeling of these foils in MCNP can be easily done with a standard volumetric neutron flux tally. However, given the multitude of locations and reaction rates to be modeled, further steps must be taken to increase the efficiency of these calculations in MCNP. During this study, a benchmark model currently under development for Godiva IV was used. A qualitative assessment of the thermal neutron contributors was performed using spatial neutron distribution plots. Additional detail was added to the model based on the qualitative results showing the thermal spectrum’s large sensitivity to hydrogenous material. Neutron energy spectra was evaluated at discrete locations in the room around Godiva to quantify the relative contribution of various components. It was discovered that the concrete walls are the largest contributor to the thermal signature, with minor contributions from plastic components surrounding Godiva. Following these results, two different variance reduction techniques were implemented to improve the problem efficiency in these calculations. In the first approach, an F5 point detector tally was implemented in the standard Godiva IV criticality problem. The second approach involved a weight-window generator implementation with an F5 point detector tally in a fixed source problem. The weight window implementation reduced the runtime from 42739.55 minutes to 1803.34 minutes (computer time), compared to the F5 KCODE implementation.
IER 519 Experiment Execution Report: TEX Hanford
The TEX-Hanford experiments were performed at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) at the Device Assembly Facility (DAF) at the Nevada Nuclear Security Site (NNSS). Three configurations were measured, with the measurements occurring in December 2025 and January 2026. The Fe-14 configuration was executed in December 2025; the Fe-11 configuration began its handstack on the Planet critical assembly machine in December 2025, but was taken critical in January 2026; the Fe-16 configuration was executed entirely in January 2026. The TEX-Hanford experiments were performed on the Planet critical assembly machine utilizing using PANN (Plutonium Aluminum No Nickel) ZPPR (Zero Power Physics Reactor) plutonium plates as fuel. The configurations were moderated with varying thicknesses of HDPE and iron absorber. This document details the configurations that were measured, preliminary reactivity measurements of the measured configurations, data files from the neutron detection systems, and results from the coordinate-measuring machine (CMM) measurements of the final stack height measurements each configuration.
Optical observations on the CRIT-II Critical Ionization Velocity Experiment
A rocket borne Critical Ionization Velocity (CIV0 experiment was carried out from Wallops Island at dusk on May 4, 1989. Two barium shaped charges were released below the solar terminator (to prevent photoionization) at altitudes near 400 km. The ambient ionospheric electron density was 50,000/cu cm. The neutral barium jet was directed upward and at an angle of nominally 45 degrees to B which gives approximately 3 x 10 to the 23rd neutrals with super critical velocity. Ions created by a CIV process in the region of the neutral jet would travel up along B into sunlight where they can be detected optically. Well defined ion clouds (max. brightness 750 R) were observed in both releases. An ionization rate of 0.8 percent/sec (125 sec ionization time constant) can account for the observed ion cloud near the release field line, but the ionization rate falls off with increasing distance from the release. It is concluded that a CIV process was present in the neutral jet out to about 50 km from the release, which is significantly further than allowed by current theories.
Chlorine Validation through Critical Integral Experiments
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Skylab Earth Resource Experiment Package critical design review
An outline of the conference for reviewing the design of the EREP is presented. Systems design for review include: tape recorder, support equipment, view finder/tracking, support hardware, and control and display panel.
Chlorine Worth Study Nuclear Data
The Chlorine Worth Study (CWS) was a series of experiments that took place at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC), operated by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The focus of the experiments was to develop new integral benchmarks for the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook with high sensitivity to chlorine in the thermal neutron energy region and which match sensitivities of aqueous chloride operations at LANL. This work discusses the experiment and how the experimental and simulated results using different nuclear data libraries compare to each other.
How to Safely Build 100-plus Kilograms of Weapons-Grade Plutonium
The goal of the EUCLID (Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in Nuclear Data) project was to reduce compensating errors by utilizing machine learning to both help determine which reactions contain compensating errors as well as optimizing an experiment which can be used to maximally reduce these errors. Compensating errors can adversely impact the predictive power of application simulations, and therefore it’s useful to further constrain nuclear data and reduce these errors. The EUCLID project included building two configurations at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC). These two configurations had very different geometries (one was cube-like and one was slab-like). Previous works focus on selection of the target experiment(s), radiation transport capabilities developed in the project, the experiment optimization, and the performance of the experiments. This work will focus only on the safety aspects of performing this experiment, which utilized over 100 kg of weapons-grade plutonium.
(abstract) Modeling the Critical Velocity Ionization Experiment Interaction
Proper interpretation of critical velocity ionization experiments depends upon understanding the expected results from in-situ or remote sensors. In particular, the 1991 shuttle based CIV experiment had diagnostics.
NCERC 2024 Highlights
The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) is entrusted with ensuring the safety, security, and reliability of the nation’s nuclear weapons stockpile while advancing programs aimed at reducing global nuclear proliferation. These critical mission objectives are achieved through the expertise of a highly skilled team of professionals. The operations at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) play a vital role in developing and enhancing knowledge and expertise in advanced nuclear technologies. NCERC supports a wide range of mission areas, including nuclear criticality safety, nuclear emergency response, and nuclear nonproliferation, safeguards, and arms control. It also provides support to the Department of Homeland Security, advances stockpile stewardship science, and delivers scientific expertise to other government agencies, such as NASA and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency. NCERC conducts experiments utilizing diverse nuclear materials, from small neutron-emitting sources for testing radiation detection equipment to larger quantities of uranium and plutonium for criticality experiments. A cornerstone of NCERC's mission portfolio includes the operation of four critical mass assembly machines—Planet, Comet, Flattop, and Godiva-IV—which are instrumental in advancing nuclear science and ensuring the nation’s nuclear security objectives.
Experimental Investigations of Energy Dependent Gamma-Neutron Noise [Slides]
PFUNS was an integral experiment performed at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) by Los Alamos National Laboratory in 2024.
Investigation of Benchmark $k$ eff Sensitivity and Uncertainty for 239 Pu fission in Specific Energy Ranges
Nuclear data at intermediate energies (from 1 to 100s of keV) are evaluated based on scarce differential data and theory unable to capture physics’ expected structure. There is also a lack of integral data. This is a known deficiency and is challenging to address. Calculated effective multiplication factor, k eff , values for intermediate energy experiments are ~25× further from experiment than for fast energies and are often well outside the experimental uncertainties. The goal of the PARADIGM (PARallel Approach of Differential and InteGral Measurements) project is to significantly re duce the uncertainties of intermediate energy nuclear data for 239 Pu. To this end, PARADIGM simultaneously optimizes experiments at both the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) and National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC). The combined set of data will inform new intermediate-energy nuclear data. By execution of differential and integral experiments, establishment of new theory, and undertaking nuclear data evaluation in parallel, the timeline to deliver improved nuclear data to users will be reduced significantly that is to three years. For the PARADIGM project, it was decided to optimize an integral experiment for two neutron energy ranges, within the full intermediate energy range. The low energy range goes from 1 to 30 keV, while the higher energy range goes from 30 to 600 keV. This work focuses on nuclear data sensitivities and uncertainties for 239 Pu fission for existing experiments in the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP). When designing new experiments, it is important to understand what benchmarks currently exist. For a more traditional experiment design (in which a specific application model(s) exists), comparisons would be made between the application model(s) and existing benchmarks. For PARADIGM, there is no specific application model, but instead the specific nuclear data reaction and energy ranges of interest can be explored for existing benchmarks.
Zeno: Critical Fluid Light Scattering Experiment
The Zeno (Critical Fluid Light Scattering) experiment is the culmination of a long history of critical fluid light scattering in liquid-vapor systems. The major limitation to making accurate measurements closer to the critical point was the density stratification which occurs in these extremely compressible fluids. Zeno was to determine the critical density fluctuation decay rates at a pair of supplementary angles in the temperature range 100 mK to 100 (mu)K from T(sub c) in a sample of xenon accurately loaded to the critical density. This paper gives some highlights from operating the instrument on two flights March, 1994 on STS-62 and February, 1996 on STS-75. More detail of the experiment Science Requirements, the personnel, apparatus, and results are displayed on the Web homepage at http://www.zeno.umd.edu.