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At least 109 records · Page 6

Global Crop Production: Adaptation to Temperature Increase Is Possible by Maintaining the Current Growing Periods

Increasing temperature trends are expected to impact yields of major field crops by affecting various plant processes, such as phenology and growth. However, future projections, especially at the global scale, do not consider any agronomic adaptation in farming practices. We use an ensemble of seven Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs) contributing to the AgMIP-Gridded project to quantify the impacts and adaptation potential of field crops under increasing temperature. We study how uniform warming scenarios up to 6 K affect the productivity and growing period duration of five major crops. The design of the experiment aims at understanding adaptation measures targeted to temperature-driven impacts and therefore leaves out changes in any other climate variable. We find that, without adaptation the dominant effect of temperature increase is to shorten the growing period and to reduce yields and production, consistently across crops and regions. We then test the potential of two agronomic measures to contrast warming-induced yield reduction, assuming that (i) cultivars with adjusted phenology would be used to regain the reference growing period duration; (ii) rainfed systems would be converted to irrigated. Despite substantial uncertainties in model parametrization and little agreement in spatial patterns, at the global aggregation, model results are robust. We find that up to 3 K of temperature increase, production losses could be fully compensated by maintaining the original crop growing period. Irrigation would also compensate production losses, but would not reduce the temperature impacts. Across regions, the model ensemble estimates larger adaptation potentials from unchanged growing periods in continental and temperate regions, than in tropical and arid regions, where also irrigation has respectively little effects and availability.

Irrigation↗

The Effects of Plasma Application on Radish Seeds with Implications for Space Crop Production

In extended space missions, the astronaut diet will consist mostly of prepackaged foods. This could result in nutritional deficiencies due to the gradual breakdown of certain vitamins. To address this deficiency, fresh produce must be grown from seed during spaceflight. Stored seeds, however, can be vulnerable to microbial contamination which could jeopardize plant health and crop food safety. To alleviate this concern, the current practice is to sanitize seeds on the ground before spaceflight to the International Space Station (ISS). Methods of seed sanitization include alcohol soaking and chlorine gas fumigation, which have harmful effects on the environment and human health. Plasma application is a new sanitization approach that avoids these negative side effects while potentially elevating germination rate and improving growth rate; yet plasma application requires specific exposure time, power, and pressure to achieve these benefits. In the present study, Raphanus sativus ‘Cherry Belle’ radish seeds were exposed to either low pressure (Diener) plasma or atmospheric pressure plasma for varying increments of time (30s-1200s). Data collected includes immediate germination rate (viability) and microbial log reduction. Additionally, seeds were stored for later germination rate testing. Microbial assay controls have highlighted variability in initial microbial load between individual seeds, and further work is being performed to determine the standard microbial load of an untreated seed. In some samples, a negative log reduction was observed after plasma treatment encouraging further study to determine if the plasma is perforating the seed coat and releasing endophytic microbes. Treatment with Diener plasma shows promising microbial log reduction, but lower viability. In contrast, treatment with atmospheric pressure plasma offers high viability, but poor microbial log reduction. Further study will aim at determining whether plasma treatment is effective at not only sanitization, but sterilization. This research was funded by a NASA grant at the Kennedy Space Center.

Plasma↗

The Effects of Plasma Application on Radish Seeds with Implications for Space Crop Production

In extended space missions, the astronaut diet will consist mostly of prepackaged foods. This could result in nutritional deficiencies due to the gradual breakdown of certain vitamins. To address this deficiency, fresh produce must be grown from seed during spaceflight. Stored seeds, however, can be vulnerable to microbial contamination which could jeopardize plant health and crop food safety. To alleviate this concern, the current practice is to sanitize seeds on the ground before spaceflight to the International Space Station (ISS). Methods of seed sanitization include alcohol soaking and chlorine gas fumigation, which have harmful effects on the environment and human health. Plasma application is a new sanitization approach that avoids these negative side effects while potentially elevating germination rate and improving growth rate; yet plasma application requires specific exposure time, power, and pressure to achieve these benefits. In the present study, Raphanus sativus ‘Cherry Belle’ radish seeds were exposed to either low pressure (Diener) plasma or atmospheric pressure plasma for varying increments of time (30s-1200s). Data collected includes immediate germination rate (viability) and microbial log reduction. Additionally, seeds were stored for later germination rate testing. Microbial assay controls have highlighted variability in initial microbial load between individual seeds, and further work is being performed to determine the standard microbial load of an untreated seed. In some samples, a negative log reduction was observed after plasma treatment encouraging further study to determine if the plasma is perforating the seed coat and releasing endophytic microbes. Treatment with Diener plasma shows promising microbial log reduction, but lower viability. In contrast, treatment with atmospheric pressure plasma offers high viability, but poor microbial log reduction. Further study will aim at determining whether plasma treatment is effective at not only sanitization, but sterilization. This research was funded by a NASA grant at the Kennedy Space Center.

Space Crop Production↗

The limits of crop productivity

The component processes that govern yield limits in food crops are reviewed and how each process can be individually measured is described. The processes considered include absorption of photosynthetic radiation by green tissue, carbon-fixation efficiency in photosynthesis, carbon use efficiency in respiration, biomass allocation to edible products, and efficiency of photosynthesis and respiration. The factors limiting yields in optimal environments are considered.

Bugbee, Bruce↗

Local Food Crop Production can Fulfil Demand for Less than One-Third of the Population

The distance between the origin and end-point of food supply chains, and the ‘localness’ of food systems, are key considerations of many narratives associated with sustainability. Yet, information on the minimum distance to food crops is still scarce at the global level. Using an optimization model based on ‘foodsheds’ (that is, self-sufficient areas with internal dependencies), we calculate the potential minimum distance between food production and consumption for six crop types around the world. We show that only 11–28% of the global population can fulfil their demand for specific crops within a 100-km radius, with substantial variation between different regions and crops. For 26–64% of the population, that distance is greater than 1,000 km. Even if transnational foodsheds were in place, large parts of the globe would still depend on trade to feed themselves. Although yield gap closure and food loss reductions could favour more local food systems, particularly in Africa and Asia, global supply chains would still be needed to ensure an adequate and stable food supply.

Crop production↗

Space Crop Production

A presentation to and discussion with a team of scientists and engineers associated with DLR. These are excerpts from previously presented public presentations from the three presenters to discuss these challenges with a group of researchers focused on ventilation and water in the atmosphere.

Veggie↗

Pick-and-Eat Space Crop Production Flight Testing on the International Space Station

Fresh, nutritious, palatable produce for crew consumption on long-duration spaceflight missions may provide health-promoting, bioavailable nutrients and enhance the dietary experience. VEG-04A and VEG-04B explored growing leafy greens on the International Space Station using the Veggie Vegetable Production System. Two flight tests with ground controls were conducted in 2019 growing mizuna mustard, where Veggie chambers were set to different red-to-blue-to-green light formulations. Light quality affects plant growth, nutrition, microbiology, and organoleptic characteristics on Earth, and we examined how these vary in microgravity and under different harvest scenarios. Astronauts harvested and weighed mizuna and completed organoleptic evaluations. Flight samples were returned to Earth for nutritional quality and microbial food safety analyses. Yield and chemistry differed between ground and flight samples and light treatments, and bacterial and fungal counts were lower in ground than in flight samples. This research helps increase our understanding of the requirements for growing high-quality crops in spaceflight.

Food Safety, International Space Station, Nutritio↗

VEG-04 Pick-and-Eat Crop Production and Human Research on the International Space Station

Growing fresh, nutritious, palatable produce for crew consumption during spaceflight may provide health-promoting, bioavailable nutrients and enhance the astronaut dietary experience as we move toward longer-duration missions. Tending plants may also serve as a countermeasure for crew psychological stresses associated with spaceflight. However, requirements to support consistent growth of a variety of nutritious crops under spaceflight environmental conditions remain unclear. This study explores the potential to grow crops for consumption on the International Space Station (ISS) using the Veggie vegetable-production system. VEG-04A and B were two flight tests conducted in 2019 with the leafy green crop Mizuna mustard. Mizuna was grown in two Veggie chambers simultaneously, with the chambers set to different red-to-blue light formulations; one Veggie was programmed as “red-rich” and the second as “blue-rich.” Light quality is known to impact plant growth, nutrition, microbiology, and organoleptic characteristics on Earth, and the Veggie flight tests examined how these impacts might differ in microgravity. VEG-04A was a 35-day growth test with a single harvest. VEG-04B, a 58-day test with harvests at four, six, and eight weeks from the same plants, assessed sustained productivity. Challenges with the watering program occurred early during VEG-04A, and several plants failed to survive in both the flight and ground control operations. Thus, prior to VEG-04B, an extra test was conducted to tailor water timing and volumes. This test allowed a fine tuning of methods for VEG-04B, and generally plant survival was better in that experiment. At each harvest, the astronauts froze half of the edible plant tissue to return to Earth and weighed the remaining half using the ISS Mass Measurement Device (MMD). Weighed samples were then cleaned with produce-sanitizing wipes, and consenting crew members participated in organoleptic evaluation of the fresh produce. Organoleptic evaluations were conducted on the Mizuna crops grown in both light treatments, and data from these tests are compared to ground data collected at JSC. The remaining sanitized produce was available for crew consumption as desired. Frozen flight samples were returned for microbial and chemical analyses to assess food safety and nutritional quality. Microbial assessments included culturing and identifying aerobic bacteria, yeasts, and molds, and screening for specific human pathogens. Chemical nutrient analyses included assessing elements, antioxidants, and phenolics in plant tissues. Crew members involved in plant operations completed behavioral health surveys pre-flight, in-flight associated with plant growth and harvest activities, and post-flight. Surveys captured the amount of time spent on different plant-related operations, enjoyment of the different activities, engagement with Veggie, experience interacting with Veggie, and sensory stimulation associated with growing plants in Veggie.

Veggie↗

VEG-04 PICK-AND-EAT CROP PRODUCTION AND HUMAN RESEARCH ON THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION

Growing fresh, nutritious, palatable produce for crew consumption during spaceflight may provide health-promoting, bioavailable nutrients and enhance the astronaut dietary experience as we move toward longer-duration missions. Tending plants may also serve as a countermeasure for crew psychological stresses associated with spaceflight. However, requirements to support consistent growth of a variety of nutritious crops under spaceflight environmental conditions remain unclear. This study explores the potential to grow crops for consumption on the International Space Station (ISS) using the Veggie vegetable-production system. VEG-04A and B were two flight tests conducted in 2019 with the leafy green crop Mizuna mustard. Mizuna was grown in two Veggie chambers simultaneously, with the chambers set to different red-to-blue light formulations; one Veggie was programmed as “red-rich” and the second as “blue-rich.” Light quality is known to impact plant growth, nutrition, microbiology, and organoleptic characteristics on Earth, and the Veggie flight tests examined how these impacts might differ in microgravity. VEG-04A was a 35-day growth test with a single harvest. VEG-04B, a 58-day test with harvests at four, six, and eight weeks from the same plants, assessed sustained productivity. Challenges with the watering program occurred early during VEG-04A, and several plants failed to survive in both the flight and ground control operations. Thus, prior to VEG-04B, an extra test was conducted to tailor water timing and volumes. This test allowed a fine tuning of methods for VEG-04B, and generally plant survival was better in that experiment. At each harvest, the astronauts froze half of the edible plant tissue to return to Earth and weighed the remaining half using the ISS Mass Measurement Device (MMD). Weighed samples were then cleaned with produce-sanitizing wipes, and consenting crew members participated in organoleptic evaluation of the fresh produce. Organoleptic evaluations were conducted on the Mizuna crops grown in both light treatments, and data from these tests are compared to ground data collected at JSC. The remaining sanitized produce was available for crew consumption as desired. Frozen flight samples were returned for microbial and chemical analyses to assess food safety and nutritional quality. Microbial assessments included culturing and identifying aerobic bacteria, yeasts, and molds, and screening for specific human pathogens. Chemical nutrient analyses included assessing elements, antioxidants, and phenolics in plant tissues. Crew members involved in plant operations completed behavioral health surveys pre-flight, in-flight associated with plant growth and harvest activities, and post-flight. Surveys captured the amount of time spent on different plant-related operations, enjoyment of the different activities, engagement with Veggie, experience interacting with Veggie, and sensory stimulation associated with growing plants in Veggie. Within each study, plant growth did not differ across light treatment or location (flight versus ground). In general, more biomass was produced in most treatments during the longer study, but growth of this crop declined over time with the repeated harvests. On average, bacterial and fungal counts were significantly lower on ground control samples than flight samples, and microbial counts increased with repeated harvests. Light treatment did not influence any elements in tissues tested; however, the growth duration did impact levels of several elements. Organoleptic scores were generally higher in flight, and ground tasters considered samples more bitter. Amount of interaction and responses to Veggie varied widely by individual. Enjoyable tasks had higher impact than non-enjoyable tasks and interacting with Veggie was generally viewed as positive. These tests on ISS are helping to mitigate the risk of an inadequate food supply for long-duration missions by adding fresh vegetables and key nutrients to the crew diet, and indicating which plant care activities are providing behavioral health benefits for the crew. This research was co-funded by the Human Research Program and Space Biology (MTL#1075) in the ILSRA 2015 NRA call. Videos due Jan. 25th.

Veggie↗

A distribution benefits model for improved information on worldwide crop production. Volume 1: Model structure and application to wheat

The improved model is suitable for the study of benefits of worldwide information on a variety of crops. Application to the previously studied case of worldwide wheat production shows that about $108 million per year of distribution benefits to the United States would be achieved by a satellite-based wheat information system meeting the goals of LACIE. The model also indicates that improved information alone will not change world stock levels unless production itself is stabilized. The United States benefits mentioned above are associated with the reduction of price fluctuations within the year and the more effective use of international trade to balance supply and demand. Price fluctuations from year to year would be reduced only if production variability were itself reduced.

Andrews, J.↗

PLANNING FOR VEG-05 TOMATO CROP PRODUCTION ON THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION

Growing fresh, nutritious, palatable produce for crew consumption during spaceflight may provide health-promoting, bioavailable nutrients and enhance the astronaut dietary experience as we move toward longer-duration missions. Tending plants may also serve as a countermeasure for crew psychological stresses associated with spaceflight. However, requirements to support consistent growth of a variety of nutritious crops under spaceflight environmental conditions remain unclear. This study explores the potential to grow crops for consumption on the International Space Station (ISS) using the Veggie vegetable-production system. Mizuna mustard was grown during VEG-04 studies in 2019, and human and plant data from those tests continue to be analyzed. Tomato plants will be grown for the VEG-05 experiment, and preflight definition studies are underway to ascertain the best hardware and operations for growing this fruiting crop. The variety of tomato selected for this study is ‘Red Robin’, a compact cherry tomato. Plants will be grown under two different red: blue lighting treatments using the Veggie units on ISS, and the impact of spectral quality on plant growth and yield, nutrient content, organoleptic acceptability, and microbial composition of the tomatoes will be assessed. Preliminary testing with this crop helped to identify responses to different analog types of growth hardware including both plant pillows and Passive Orbital Nutrient Delivery System (PONDS) units, and current testing is focusing on flight-like versions of this hardware. Challenges with fertilizer salts leaching out into the plant wicks and burning the stems of tomato were observed in earlier tests, so amended fertilizer and wick configurations have been developed. Crew procedures including plant thinning, watering, height adjustment with respect to lighting, and pollination are being validated. VEG-05 will be the first test of tomato fruit production on ISS. Lessons learned during preparation and implementation of the VEG-04 mizuna test for watering, and a separate ISS investigation with peppers (PH-04) in the Advanced Plant Habitat (APH) in terms of fertilizer, plant wicks, and pollination, will be adapted for this experiment. This research was co-funded by the Human Research Program and Space Biology (MTL#1075) in the ILSRA 2015 NRA call.

Veggie↗

Planning for VEG-05 Tomato Crop Production on the International Space Station

Growing fresh, nutritious, palatable produce for crew consumption during spaceflight may provide health-promoting, bioavailable nutrients and enhance the astronaut dietary experience as we move toward longer-duration missions. Tending plants may also serve as a countermeasure for crew psychological stresses associated with spaceflight. However, requirements to support consistent growth of a variety of nutritious crops under spaceflight environmental conditions remain unclear. This study explores the potential to grow crops for consumption on the International Space Station (ISS) using the Veggie vegetable-production system. Mizuna mustard was grown during VEG-04 studies in 2019, and human and plant data from those tests continue to be analyzed. Tomato plants will be grown for the VEG-05 experiment, and preflight definition studies are underway to ascertain the best hardware and operations for growing this fruiting crop. The variety of tomato selected for this study is ‘Red Robin’, a compact cherry tomato. Plants will be grown under two different red: blue lighting treatments using the Veggie units on ISS, and the impact of spectral quality on plant growth and yield, nutrient content, organoleptic acceptability, and microbial composition of the tomatoes will be assessed. Preliminary testing with this crop helped to identify responses to different analog types of growth hardware including both plant pillows and Passive Orbital Nutrient Delivery System (PONDS) units, and current testing is focusing on flight-like versions of this hardware. Challenges with fertilizer salts leaching out into the plant wicks and burning the stems of tomato were observed in earlier tests, so amended fertilizer and wick configurations have been developed. Crew procedures including plant thinning, watering, height adjustment with respect to lighting, and pollination are being validated. VEG-05 will be the first test of tomato fruit production on ISS. Lessons learned during preparation and implementation of the VEG-04 mizuna test for watering, and a separate ISS investigation with peppers (PH-04) in the Advanced Plant Habitat (APH) in terms of fertilizer, plant wicks, and pollination, will be adapted for this experiment. This research was co-funded by the Human Research Program and Space Biology (MTL#1075) in the ILSRA 2015 NRA call. Note: Presentation is a video formatted mp4 with a run time of 3 mins. 24 secs.

Veggie↗

Exploring the limits of crop productivity. I. Photosynthetic efficiency of wheat in high irradiance environments

The long-term vegetative and reproductive growth rates of a wheat crop (Triticum aestivum L.) were determined in three separate studies (24, 45, and 79 days) in response to a wide range of photosynthetic photon fluxes (PPF, 400-2080 micromoles per square meter per second; 22-150 moles per square meter per day; 16-20 hour photoperiod) in a near-optimum, controlled-environment. The CO2 concentration was elevated to 1200 micromoles per mole, and water and nutrients were supplied by liquid hydroponic culture. An unusually high plant density (2000 plants per square meter) was used to obtain high yields. Crop growth rate and grain yield reached 138 and 60 grams per square meter per day, respectively; both continued to increase up to the highest integrated daily PPF level, which was three times greater than a typical daily flux in the field. The conversion efficiency of photosynthesis (energy in biomass/energy in photosynthetic photons) was over 10% at low PPF but decreased to 7% as PPF increased. Harvest index increased from 41 to 44% as PPF increased. Yield components for primary, secondary, and tertiary culms were analyzed separately. Tillering produced up to 7000 heads per square meter at the highest PPF level. Primary and secondary culms were 10% more efficient (higher harvest index) than tertiary culms; hence cultural, environmental, or genetic changes that increase the percentage of primary and secondary culms might increase harvest index and thus grain yield. Wheat is physiologically and genetically capable of much higher productivity and photosynthetic efficiency than has been recorded in a field environment.

NASA Discipline Number 61-10↗

Pick-and-Eat Salad-Crop Productivity, Nutritional Value, and Acceptability to Supplement the ISS Food System

The capability to grow nutritious, palatable food for crew consumption during spaceflight has the potential to provide health-promoting, bioavailable nutrients, enhance the dietary experience, and reduce launch mass as we move toward longer-duration missions. However, studies of edible produce during spaceflight have been limited, leaving a significant knowledge gap in the methods required to grow safe, acceptable, nutritious crops for consumption in space. Researchers from Kennedy Space Center, Johnson Space Center, Purdue University and ORBITEC have teamed up to explore the potential for plant growth and food production on the International Space Station (ISS) and future exploration missions. KSC, Purdue, and ORBITEC bring a history of plant and plant-microbial interaction research for ISS and for future bioregenerative life support systems. JSC brings expertise in Advanced Food Technology (AFT), Behavioral Health and Performance (BHP), and statistics. The Veggie vegetable-production system on the ISS offers an opportunity to develop a pick-and-eat fresh vegetable component to the ISS food system as a first step to bioregenerative supplemental food production. We propose growing salad plants in the Veggie unit during spaceflight, focusing on the impact of light quality and fertilizer formulation on crop morphology, edible biomass yield, microbial food safety, organoleptic acceptability, nutritional value, and behavioral health benefits of the fresh produce. The first phase of the project will involve flight tests using leafy greens, with a small Chinese cabbage variety, Tokyo bekana, previously down selected through a series of research tests as a suitable candidate. The second phase will focus on dwarf tomato. Down selection of candidate varieties have been performed, and the dwarf cultivar Red Robin has been selected as the test crop. Four light treatments and three fertilizer treatments will be tested for each crop on the ground, to down select to two light treatments and one fertilizer treatment to test on ISS. Our work will help define light colors, levels, and horticultural best practices to achieve high yields of safe, nutritious leafy greens and tomatoes to supplement a space diet of prepackaged food. Our final deliverable will be the development of growth protocols for these crops in a spaceflight vegetable production system. With this work, and potentially with other pending joint projects, we will continue the synergistic research to help close gaps in the human research roadmap, and enable humans to venture to Mars and beyond. This research was co-funded by the Human Research Program and Space Biology (MTL1075) in the ILSRA 2015 NRA call.

Behavioral Health↗

Pick-and-Eat Space Crop Production Flight Testing on the International Space Station

Growing fresh, nutritious, palatable produce for crew consumption during spaceflight may provide health-promoting, bioavailable nutrients and enhance the astronaut dietary experience as we move toward longer-duration missions. However, requirements to support consistent growth of a variety of high-quality crops under spaceflight environmental conditions remain unclear. This study explores the potential to grow crops for consumption on the International Space Station (ISS) using Veggie, NASA’s vegetable production chamber system. VEG-04A and VEG-04B were two flight tests with ground components conducted with the leafy green crop mizuna mustard. In each location, mizuna was grown in two Veggie units simultaneously, with the chambers set to different red-to-blue-to-green light formulations. Preflight verification testing with various lighting treatments was conducted to down-select two treatments that contributed to the best desirable growth and sensory qualities in mizuna mustard. For the flight tests, one Veggie was programmed as “red-rich” with an average of 270 μmol m-2 s-1 of 630 nm red light, 30 μmol m-2 s-1 of 455 nm blue light, and 30 μmol m-2 s-1 of 530 nm green light. The second Veggie was “blue-rich” with an average of 150 µmol m-2 s-1 of 630 nm red light, 150 µmol m-2 s-1 of 455 nm blue light, and 30 µmol m-2 s-1 of 530 nm green light. Light quality is known to impact plant growth, nutrition, microbiology, and sensory characteristics on Earth, and the Veggie flight tests examined how these impacts might differ in microgravity. VEG-04A, a 35-day growth test with a single harvest, was initiated in June and harvested in July 2019. VEG-04B, a 56-day test with three harvests from the same plants, assessed sustained productivity. Preflight testing for VEG-04B was conducted after the VEG-04A flight test to improve the operations, approaches, and watering requirements, which resulted in better crop establishment in the VEG-04B flight test. VEG-04B was initiated in October 2019 with harvests at four, six, and eight weeks after initiation. At all of the harvests, the astronauts froze half of the edible plant tissue to return to Earth and weighed the remaining half using the Mass Measurement Device (MMD). Weighed samples were then cleaned with produce-sanitizing wipes, and consenting crew members participated in sensory evaluations of the fresh produce. The remaining sanitized produce was available for crew consumption as desired. Frozen flight samples were returned to Earth for chemical and microbial analyses to assess nutritional quality and food safety. Flight-grown mizuna was generally more acceptable to the crew and had higher nutrient levels, although mizuna grown in the ground control performed better in terms of higher yield and lower microbial load. This presentation will focus on results from the nutritional and sensory analyses, including how nutrients identified as key for supplementing the crew diet varied across lighting treatments, harvest approaches, and spaceflight versus ground conditions. It is our hope that these tests on the ISS will help mitigate the risk of an inadequate food supply for long-duration missions by adding fresh vegetables to the crew diet. This study was supported by NASA’s Human Research and Space Biology Programs through the HERO NNJ13ZSA002N-ILSRA grant solicitation.

Jess Bunchek↗

Heat Stress to Jeopardize Crop Production in the US Corn Belt Based on Downscaled CMIP5 Projections

CONTEXT Global food security faces increasing challenges from the changing climate. Changes of agricultural output from some of the most productive regions such as the US Corn Belt can largely affect the world's food market. Developing predictive understanding of the agricultural risk of climate change and potential mitigation strategies is critical for the global food security. OBJECTIVE The objective of this study is to assess the responses of maize and soybean yield to projected climate changes in the Corn Belt, identify the shifting environment stressors on crop yield, and tackle potential climate adaptation strategies. METHODS We drive a process-based model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, with high-resolution statistically downscaled and bias-corrected historical and future climates from ten CMIP5 models in the MACA-2 database. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS The multi-model ensemble mean suggests a 12% decrease of maize yield by mid-century and 40% by late century, with a high degree of model consensus in the direction of changes; for individual models, the projected decrease of maize yield by late century ranges from <5% to over 80%, with the worst crop outcome corresponding to the most sensitive climate models. Soybean yield is projected to increase by midcentury with a high degree of model consensus, but such consensus is lost by late century as some projections shift to significant decreases. Crop yield in the Corn Belt is currently limited by water stress, but is projected to be increasingly limited by heat stress as well after the midcentury. The mounting heat stress will drive the most productive zone for maize to shift from central to northern part of the Corn Belt, but the projected increase in the northern states cannot fully compensate for the decrease in the south, causing the total production to decrease if agricultural practice stays the same. Earlier planting can alleviate only a small fraction of the heat-induced crop loss in a warmer climate. Climate change will (at least partially) offset the yield boost caused by agricultural technology and intensification. SIGNIFICANCE This study advances our predictive understanding of crop yield responses to climate change, and suggests that a multitude of strategies will be needed to address the climate change challenges for the U.S. agriculture.

Crop yield↗

An Application of the Phosphorus Consistent Rule for Environmentally Acceptable Cost-Efficient Management of Broiler Litter in Crop Production

We calculated the profitability of using broiler litter as a source of plant nutrients using the phosphorus consistent litter application rule. The cost saving by using litter is 37% over the use of chemical fertilizer-only option to meet the nutrient needs of major crops grown in Alabama. In the optimal solution, only a few routes of all the possible routes developed were used for inter- and intra- county litter hauling. If litter is not adopted as the sole source of crop nutrients, the best environmental policy may be to pair the phosphorus consistent rule with taxes, marketable permits, and subsidies.flaws

Paudel, Krishna P.↗