The future of pandemic modeling in support of decision making: lessons learned from COVID-19
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This revision was prepared to document changes to the data-collection activities. Specifically, the drilling and completion of the wells have been revised, and enhancements to the surface geophysics measurements have been included. Corrective action is needed because underground radioactive contamination exists in these areas resulting from historic underground nuclear testing. The PM CAUs are located in the northwestern portion of the Nevada National Security Site and comprise 82 corrective action sites. A total of 85 underground nuclear detonations took place within the area covered by the PM CAUs between 1965 and 1992 and resulted in the release of radionuclides in the subsurface in the vicinity of the test cavities.
This article describes a series of spreadsheet-based tools to help farmers estimate costs, revenues, and yields from agricultural production under different configurations of agrivoltaic installations for field and perennial crops. Crop-specific log books allow farmers to project changes in activity-level costs from the field due to agrivoltaic installations. The whole-farm tool helps farmers aggregate activity-level net returns up to the farm level to calculate projections of trade-offs between crop production with or without agrivoltaic installations. We present tools for lettuce and cranberries, but the tools are comprehensive and inclusive and so can be modified for other perennial and field crops.
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Unlike the power sector—which can transmit electricity over long distances via established grids—the industrial sector poses a unique challenge due to its geographically concentrated large-scale heat processes. Enhancing energy security in such industrial parks provides a dual benefit: reduced exposure to volatile fossil fuel prices and improved economic viability, largely driven by economies of scale in energy supply and distribution. This study presents a comprehensive technoeconomic analysis of a nuclear energy hub, employing a mechanism-focused approach to evaluate uncertainties in operational strategies and capacity optimization. Load profiles from three major energy intesive industries—chemical, refinery, and steelmaking—are examined, each presenting unique challenges and opportunities for nuclear energy integration. We adopt a multi-objective optimization framework, converting multiple objectives into a single objective function through the e-constraint method. The findings highlight clear trade-offs between system conditions and varying levels of energy independence. Overall, this analysis is granular enough to address industry-specific concerns yet sufficiently generalizable to provide actionable insights into the feasibility of nuclear-based clean heat solutions for the industrial sector.
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Large language models (LLMs) show promise in supporting differential diagnosis, but their performance is challenging to evaluate due to the unstructured nature of their responses, and their accuracy compared to existing diagnostic tools is not well characterized. To assess the current capabilities of LLMs to diagnose genetic diseases, we benchmarked these models on 5213 previously published case reports using the Phenopacket Schema, the Human Phenotype Ontology and Mondo disease ontology. Prompts generated from each phenopacket were sent to seven LLMs, including four generalist models and three LLMs specialized for medical applications. The same phenopackets were used as input to a widely used diagnostic tool, Exomiser, in phenotype-only mode. The best LLM ranked the correct diagnosis first in 23.6% of cases, whereas Exomiser did so in 35.5% of cases. While the performance of LLMs for supporting differential diagnosis has been improving, it has not reached the level of commonly used traditional bioinformatics tools. Future research is needed to determine the best approach to incorporate LLMs into diagnostic pipelines.
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The renewable energy transition is leading to increased electricity trade between the United States and Canada, with Canadian hydropower providing firm lower-carbon power and buffering variability of wind and solar generation in the U.S. However, long-term power purchase agreements and transborder transmission projects are controversial, with two of four proposed transmission lines between Quebec, Canada and the northeast U.S. cancelled since 2018. Here, we argue that controversies are exacerbated by a lack of open-source data and tools to understand tradeoffs of new hydropower generation and transmission infrastructure in comparison to alternatives. This gap includes impacts that incremental transmission and generation projects have on the economics of the entire system, for example, how new transmission projects affect exports to existing markets or incentivize new generation. We identify priority areas for data synthesis and model development, such as integrating linked hydropower and hydrologic interactions in energy system models and openly releasing (by utilities) or back-calculating (by researchers) hydropower generation and operational parameters. Publicly available environmental (e.g. streamflow, precipitation) and techno-economic (e.g. costs, reservoir size,) data can be used to parameterize freely usable and extensible models. Existing models have been calibrated with operational data from Canadian utilities that are not publicly available, limiting the range of scientific and commercial questions these tools have been used to answer and the range of parties that have been involved. Studies conducted using highly resolved, national-scale public data exist in other countries, notably, the United States, and demonstrate how greater transparency and extensibility can drive industry action. Improved data availability in Canada could facilitate approaches that (1) increase participation in decarbonization planning by a broader range of actors; (2) allow independent characterizations of environmental, health, and economic outcomes of interest to the public; and (3) identify decarbonization pathways consistent with community values.
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This research proposes a sensitivity-based framework for selecting the optimal prescribed loading path for a biaxial cruciform specimen. Optimality here is determined by the direction and magnitude of the prescribed displacement that minimizes the influence of random noise on the material model parameter identification. Using simulated experimental data based on finite element simulation, in this work, we identify the material model parameters of a Ludwik hardening model and plane stress implementation of the Hill-48 yield criterion using finite element model updating (FEMU). Our analysis reveals that the identification (or estimator) uncertainty of model parameters depends on the displacement boundary conditions (i.e., loading sequence) and the ground-truth value of the individual parameters. Optimal experimental design (OED) criteria based on the Fisher information matrix were investigated to mitigate indecision in the choice of optimal load path when the identification uncertainty of different material model parameters optimized at different load paths. The determinant of the Fisher information matrix was chosen here as the more useful metric due to its ability to capture uncertainty of the most influential material model parameters. The proposed framework demonstrates potential for real-time automated load step selection using scalar criteria derived prior to mechanical loading. The framework can be generalized to other geometries, boundary conditions and material models, allowing this procedure to be utilized for different experimental configurations and materials.
Abstract This study addressed the cognitive impacts of providing correct and incorrect machine learning (ML) outputs in support of an object detection task. The study consisted of five experiments that manipulated the accuracy and importance of mock ML outputs. In each of the experiments, participants were given the T and L task with T-shaped targets and L-shaped distractors. They were tasked with categorizing each image as target present or target absent. In Experiment 1, they performed this task without the aid of ML outputs. In Experiments 2–5, they were shown images with bounding boxes, representing the output of an ML model. The outputs could be correct (hits and correct rejections), or they could be erroneous (false alarms and misses). Experiment 2 manipulated the overall accuracy of these mock ML outputs. Experiment 3 manipulated the proportion of different types of errors. Experiments 4 and 5 manipulated the importance of specific types of stimuli or model errors, as well as the framing of the task in terms of human or model performance. These experiments showed that model misses were consistently harder for participants to detect than model false alarms. In general, as the model’s performance increased, human performance increased as well, but in many cases the participants were more likely to overlook model errors when the model had high accuracy overall. Warning participants to be on the lookout for specific types of model errors had very little impact on their performance. Overall, our results emphasize the importance of considering human cognition when determining what level of model performance and types of model errors are acceptable for a given task.