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DOE OSTI2026

Toward an AI-Powered Software Pipeline for Real-Time Tracking and Analysis of Wildfire and Smoke

Real-time tracking of wildfires and smoke is crucial for effective response, minimizing damage, protecting lives, and efficiently managing resources during fire emergencies. We develop a web-based AI-powered pipeline that detects wildfires in aerial video and estimates deployment-relevant behavior metrics, including cumulative burned area, burned-area growth rate, fire spread direction, and smoke dispersion. The system combines a YOLO-based detector with YCbCr-based fire segmentation, HSV-based smoke segmentation, Farneback optical flow, and centroid-based spatiotemporal tracking. Using ground sampling distance (GSD), pixel-level fire masks are converted to physical burned-area measurements by correlating fire pixel counts with camera altitude and tilt angle. We benchmark YOLO variants and non-YOLO baselines (GoogLeNet, CNN, DBN, Autoencoder, U-Net, and AlexNet) on the IEEE FLAME dataset and a newly created aerial frame dataset, Wildfire-DB. Cross-dataset evaluation uses a strict threshold-transfer protocol: decision thresholds are selected on FLAME validation and transferred unchanged to Wildfire-DB to quantify generalization under domain shift. YOLOv6 achieves the strongest cross-dataset frame-level fire detection on Wildfire-DB (ROC-AUC 0.8200, PR-AUC 0.8044, and transferred-threshold F1 0.7596). For tracking-oriented deployment requiring oriented localization, YOLO11-OBB provides the most reliable cross-dataset behavior among OBB-capable models while remaining computationally feasible. To analyze the feasibility of UAV deployment, we further measure inference efficiency using synchronized GPU and CPU power logs on a fixed workload of 1569 frames. YOLO-family models process the video in 5.73–12.47 seconds with net energy of 1247.28–1775.39 J, substantially lower latency and energy than heavier classification and reconstruction baselines. Overall, model optimality depends on operational objectives: YOLOv6 is best for cross-dataset detection robustness, whereas YOL...

Color segmentation↗

DOE OSTI2026

Catalytic disproportionation on carbon superstructures enables long-life, high-loading Li–S batteries

Electrocatalysis has been widely explored as an effective strategy to accelerate polysulfide (PS) conversion and suppress the shuttle effect in lithium–sulfur (Li–S) batteries. However, the underlying mechanisms remain elusive, and electrocatalytic reactions are inactive during cell resting. In this work, we reveal and quantitatively analyze a previously unrecognized sulfur reduction route (SRR) driven by catalytic disproportionation at the carbon cathode surface—fundamentally distinct from conventional electrocatalysis. Unlike conventional stepwise pathways, this SRR enables high-order polysulfides (Sₓ²⁻, x = 5–8) to directly convert into S₈ and Li₂S₂, bypassing low-order intermediates. This sulfur-reduction shortcut is systematically elucidated through high-performance liquid chromatography, revealing the intrinsic catalytic contribution of carbon frameworks and the dynamic evolution of PS species. We demonstrate that carbon superstructures (CSS-0.5), assembled from nanosheet subunits with abundant N/O functionalities and interconnected charge-migration channels, synergistically promote this catalytic process. Benefiting from these features, CSS-0.5 delivers superior electrochemical performance under practical conditions, enabling high sulfur loading (6.0 mg cm⁻²) pouch cells with 80.5% capacity retention over 210 cycles. This study provides the first quantitative evidence of electrocatalytic disproportionation in Li–S batteries, offering mechanistic insights and design principles for advanced sulfur cathodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Conditional diffusion machine-learning framework for mapping valence electron distribution from convergent beam electron diffraction

Quantitative convergent beam electron diffraction (CBED) enables determination of aspherical valence electron distributions through refinement of low-order structure factors, which are highly sensitive to chemical bonding and charge density variations. However, conventional quantitative CBED (QCBED) requires solving a highly nonlinear inverse problem with many coupled parameters, and computationally intensive dynamical diffraction calculations, making it time-consuming and difficult to apply to complex systems. More broadly, reconstructing charge density and orbital electron distribution from diffraction data has long been a central challenge in both x-ray and electron crystallography. Here, in this study, we introduce an artificial-intelligence (AI)-based framework that replaces traditional refinement with a data-driven inverse solver. Using a large synthetic CBED dataset generated by Bloch-wave simulations, we train a conditional diffusion model to directly infer crystal structural parameters and multipole density formalism parameters, and hence valence electron distributions, from CBED patterns alone. By learning from forward simulations across realistic parameter space, the model effectively solves the inverse problem. Compared with direct regression approaches, the diffusion-based framework provides posterior parameter distributions for rigorous uncertainty quantification while preserving quantitative fidelity and reducing analysis time by orders of magnitude. By eliminating the need for external single-crystal x-ray diffraction data and complex nonlinear refinement, this approach enables practical, high-throughput, and in situ quantitative CBED, enabling real-time mapping of valence electron distributions and their correlation with functional responses in quantum and energy materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2026

Future Projection of Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Troughs and Implications for Tropical Cyclone Activity

Summertime tropical upper-tropospheric troughs (TUTTs) provide a unified framework to better understand how extratropical and tropical forcings jointly modulate basin-scale tropical cyclone (TC) activity. In this study, we examine future changes in TUTTs and their implications for TC activity. Multimodel ensemble-mean projections from 45 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models suggest a contraction of the Pacific TUTT and an expansion of the Atlantic TUTT as the climate warms. Consistently, future changes in environment-based TC indices indicate that the large-scale conditions will become more favorable for TC genesis and intensification over the central North Pacific but less favorable over the tropical North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Utilizing a TC-permitting large-ensemble dataset [i.e., the Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF)] that adequately captures the observed interannual TUTT–TC relationships, we further confirm the impacts of projected TUTT changes on the TC activity in a warmer climate. In contrast, the TUTT–TC relationship is poorly represented in most CMIP6 High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) models; such deficiencies call for caution when assessing future TC risk based on explicitly tracked TCs in these models. Additionally, CMIP6 projections show large intermodel spread in TUTT changes, implying uncertainty in projected TC activity, especially over the central-to-eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic. This intermodel spread is associated with interhemispheric sea surface temperature warming asymmetry, which leads to a meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the simultaneous weakening or strengthening of TUTTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The potential contributions of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and oceanic circulation to this interhemispheric warming asymmetry are briefly examined.

Climate Change↗

DOE OSTI2026

SENTRA: A Modular Computational Graph Framework for Critical Mineral and Materials Supply Chains: Part I: Network Construction Latent-Quantity Estimation, and Temporal Graph Forecasting

Global supply chains for critical minerals and materials are complex, evolving networks of countries, products, production stages, and trade relationships. Existing analytical approaches are limited by fragmented data and static network representations that do not capture the dynamic production dependencies linking raw materials, intermediate products, and final goods across multiple countries. Trade and production statistics provide only a partial view of domestic production, inventories, and material flows, making it difficult to identify indirect sourcing pathways, hidden dependencies, and embedded foreign exposures. This paper introduces the Supply Chain Exposure Network Tracking and Risk Assessment (SENTRA) framework, a modular graph-based computational framework for constructing, analyzing, and forecasting dynamic supply chain networks. As the first paper in a three-part methodological series, it establishes the computational foundation of SENTRA by constructing a temporal attributed multi-relational graph whose nodes represent product–country pairs and whose edges encode observed trade and within-country value-chain relationships. Statistical estimation and constrained optimization recover latent production, final demand, and product input dependency coefficients while enforcing economic accounting constraints. Graph-derived exposure measures quantify direct, transshipment, value-chain, and multi-hop supply chain dependencies independently of the forecasting model. A temporal graph forecasting architecture based on a relational graph neural network then forecasts the evolution of the graph under mass-balance constraints with distribution-free conformal uncertainty quantification. Validation on the global aluminum supply chain shows that the learned graph representations recover economically meaningful supply chain structure, accurately forecast out-of-sample trade relationships, and produce well-calibrated prediction intervals. Subsequent papers apply this computational foundation to exposure assessment, disruption analysis, and scenario-based policy analysis, and extend the framework to multimaterial supply chain modeling and decision support.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Selective solid-state isolation of NMR circuit elements using back-to-back field effect transistors

Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) electronics that employ selective solid-state isolation of circuit elements can include solid-state switches, such as back-to-back Field Effect Transistor (FET) pairs, and isolated gate drive electronics adapted to operate the solid-state switches in order to selectively decouple induction coils from receive electronics. The solid-state switches can be placed in series to achieve higher standoff voltages, and can be configured for low on resistance and short switching times. The gate drive electronics can include electrical isolation components adapted to enhance standoff voltages and reduce electrical noise at the selectively isolated receive electronics.

Walsh, David O.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Theory of stimulated and spontaneous axion scattering.

We present a theory for nonlinear, resonant excitation of dynamical axions by counterpropagating electromagnetic waves in materials that break both 𝒫 and 𝒯 symmetries. We show that dynamical axions can mediate an exponential growth in the amplitude of the lower frequency (Stokes) beam. We also discuss spontaneous generation of a counterpropagating Stokes mode, enabled by resonant amplification of quantum and thermal fluctuations in the presence of a single pump laser. Remarkably, the amplification can be orders of magnitude larger than that obtained via stimulated Brillouin and Raman scattering processes, and can be modulated with the application of external magnetic fields, making stimulated axion scattering promising for optoelectronics applications.

Smith, M.↗

DOE OSTI2026

BISON analyses of TRISO fuel performance, its dependence on time-at-temperature, and possible implications for fuel design and qualification

The Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification (AGR) program has established a substantial technical foundation to support private entry into the U.S. high-temperature gas-cooled reactor market. However, emerging tristructural isotropic (TRISO)-fueled reactor applications include small modular reactors and microreactors with longer fuel residence times, which may expose fuels to higher time-at-temperature (TAT) values than were explored by the AGR program. Increased TAT could affect diffusive and thermomechanical behaviors such as Pd penetration, fission gas release, creep, and fission product transport. In this work, we applied multiscale best-estimate BISON fuel performance modeling to assess these effects within a representative design space based on the AGR-5/6/7 experiment and analyzed trends in predicted particle and compact fuel performance metrics with possible implications for near-term fuel design and qualification. BISON unambiguously predicted that TRISO fuel performance is sensitive to TAT. Increasing TAT was not predicted to increase the magnitude of failure-inducing tangential stresses in particle coating layers. Predictions obtained using a mechanistic model for Pd penetration indicated that penetration depth does not depend strongly on TAT. While these observations suggest that AGR testing provides a conservative upper bound for the steady-state operation of TRISO particles at lower powers and higher residence times, BISON also predicted that the release of poorly retained Ag would increase with TAT. Because these analyses applied models to extrapolate beyond the available experimental data, the authors recommend performing targeted experiments to confirm these predictions. Nevertheless, these predictions may provide reactor developers with enough confidence to make near-term design decisions associated with the potential fuel performance trade-offs of increasing TAT.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Systems Engineering and Analysis in Support of a US Federal Staging Facility for UNF

The US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Office of Spent Fuel and High-Level Waste Disposition is examining a set of system options and conducting supporting analyses to inform the development of an integrated waste management system, which may include one or more federal staging facilities (FSFs) for used nuclear fuel (UNF ) sited using a collaborative siting process. This paper focuses on the ongoing activities in two systems engineering and analysis work areas: (1) data and tools development, validation, and maintenance and (2) systems engineering execution. Within the first work area, the STANDARDS 5.0 UNF data and analysis tool, formerly known as UNF-ST&DARDS, is being developed as a foundational resource to assist in the management of UNF data. It has the key capability to model UNF throughout the entire back end of the fuel cycle. STANDARDS also includes several compatible analysis tools for the time-dependent characterization of UNF and related systems by interfacing with the SCALE code system for nuclear analysis and COBRA-SFS for thermal analysis. Also, within the data and tools area is the Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM), which is an agent-based simulation software tool expressly designed to be capable of modeling the waste management system, including the transportation of UNF to and from a FSF. NGSAM has been developed to enable informed decision-making by providing the capability to analyze various potential system options for the management of UNF and high-level radioactive waste. Finally, in the systems engineering execution area, the team has begun to apply a disciplined systems engineering approach at the system level along with supporting analysis to guide the development of the FSF project requirements (including associated transportation infrastructure). Systems engineering principles and practices and their adaptation/application to design and development activities will ensure that the waste management system is effectively implemented as work proceeds. Other activities include investigating the implications of changes in various assumptions and parameters related to waste management systems, such as UNF acceptance rates, receipt logic, facility capacities and capabilities, use of standardized canisters, and different assumed facility operation start dates. Keywords: federal staging facility (FSF), used nuclear fuel (UNF), integrated waste management (IWM) system, Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM), STANDARDS, systems engineering

Joseph, Robert↗

DOE OSTI2026

Metal–bicarbonate ion pairing in alkaline aqueous solutions from multilevel embedded correlated wavefunction theory and molecular dynamics

In this work, we examine ion-pairing mechanisms of bicarbonates in alkaline aqueous solutions with the divalent metal ions most abundantly present in seawater, namely, Ca 2+ and Mg 2+ . We employ a rare-event enhanced sampling approach within first-principles molecular dynamics to explore regions of phase space spanning solvent-shared to contact ion pairs. Second-order Møller–Plesset perturbation theory (MP2) corrections are subsequently applied in an embedding framework (EMB) to refine the electronic structure of stationary states and associated reaction barriers along the free-energy profiles while retaining the extended solvent effects at the density functional theory (DFT) level. Ca 2+ –HCO 3 − was previously hypothesized to exist in a solvent-shared ion pair (SSHIP) by DFT studies with an endergonic contact ion pair (CIP) formation; however, our EMB-MP2 refinement of the DFT ion-pairing pathways reveals that Ca 2+ and HCO 3 − form a virtually barrier-free CIP in alkaline solutions, with even more energetic ease than the widely studied Ca–CO 3 ion pair. We find qualitative agreement between DFT and EMB-MP2 for Mg 2+ —unlike Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ refuses to shed its strong hydration shell, thereby preferring a SSHIP state with a significant activation barrier to crossover to the CIP forms—a trait reminiscent of ion pairing in Mg–CO 3 and closely related to the kinetic limitations underlying the famous subject of the dolomite problem. Our study highlights the importance of improved electronic structure descriptions of liquids, modeled as a condensed phase of matter lacking in long-range crystalline order. It also strongly suggests that Ca 2+ –HCO 3 − CIPs are likely precursors involved in prenucleation of CaCO 3 mineral formation in seawater.

Sharma, Vidushi [Princeton Plasma Physics Laborato↗

DOE OSTI2026

Effect of Thermodynamic and Environmental Factors on Crystallization of DNA‐Origami Superlattices

The directed self‐assembly of nanoscale materials into ordered superlattices presents a powerful strategy for creating next‐generation materials with programmable mechanical, optical, and photonic properties. Deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) origami has emerged as a versatile scaffold for encoding nanoscale geometry and guiding the crystallization of complex 3D architectures. However, a systematic understanding of the parameters that govern the efficiency and quality of superlattice formation remains limited. In this study, we utilize octahedral DNA nanoscale frames as a model system to investigate the relative influence of key factors, including buffer composition, ionic strength, frame concentration, and thermal annealing protocols, on the size, order, and reproducibility of the resulting superlattices. Our findings provide a quantitative framework to rationally optimize DNA‐based assembly pathways. Structural characterization via small‐angle x‐ray scattering (SAXS), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and optical microscopy validates the quality and fidelity of the assembled lattices. Moreover, by templating these DNA frameworks into inorganic replicas, we establish general design principles that extend beyond biomolecular systems, providing a foundation for the synthesis of programmable materials in broader nanofabrication contexts.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2008

Vehicle Technologies Program: Energy Storage R&D (2008 Annual Progress Report)

One of the primary objectives of the Energy Storage effort is the development of durable and affordable advanced batteries (and ultracapacitors) for use in a full range of vehicle applications, from start/stop to full-power HEVs, EVs, and PHEVs. The battery technology development activity spans three areas: system development of full battery systems; benchmark testing of emerging technologies in order to remain abreast of the latest industry developments; and Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) to fund early-stage R&D for small businesses/entrepreneurs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Thermodynamically informed priors for uncertainty propagation in first-principles statistical mechanics

Here, this work demonstrates how first-principles statistical mechanics approaches within a Bayesian framework can quantify and propagate uncertainties to downstream thermodynamic calculations. To address the issue of Bayesian prior selection, knowledge of 0 K ground states in the material system of interest is incorporated into the prior. The effectiveness of this framework is shown by creating a phase diagram for the fcc zirconium nitride system, including confidence intervals on order-disorder transition temperatures.

Bayesian methods↗

DOE OSTI2026

Explainable machine learning reveals that local structural motifs encode the thermodynamic state across the CuZr metallic glass-forming range

Metallic glasses derive their properties from the statistics of local atomic motifs rather than from long-range order, yet a quantitative, chemistry-specific link between motif populations and the underlying glassy state has remained elusive. In this work we combine large-scale molecular dynamics, Voronoi tessellation, deep neural networks, and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to identify which local structural motifs define the glassy state of Cu—Zr metallic glasses. A dataset of 17,180 atomistic configurations spanning ten compositions (Cu 20 Zr 80 –Cu 80 Zr 20 ) and four quench rates (10 9 –10 12 K/s) is used to train a feed-forward neural network that regresses temperature across the 50–2000 K liquid–supercooled–glass range, achieving a mean absolute error of 19.89 K and R 2 = 0.9974, confirming that the local structural state is faithfully encoded in motif-level structure. SHAP analysis then reveals that a tightly coupled near-icosahedral family of motifs (coordination numbers (CN) 11–13, including the full icosahedron 001200 and its single-atom-perturbation sibling 10930) collectively encodes the thermodynamic state of the system across the full glass-forming range. The CN = 11–13 ordered members carry negative SHAP values at high populations, tracking the most deeply-quenched configurations, while 10930 shows the reversed signature consistent with its role as a soft-spot host whose population shrinks as the icosahedral network deepens. The analysis demonstrates that explainable machine learning can isolate the minimal motif vocabulary defining the glassy state and recovers the near-icosahedral building blocks previously identified by data-driven analyses of Cu—Zr. The approach provides a general, chemistry-specific route for characterizing the structural state of disordered materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Scan‐Path‐ and Initial‐State‐Dependent Superdomain Switching in (111)‐Oriented PZT

Polarization switching in ferroelectric materials arises from the collective evolution of complex domain hierarchies, yet deterministic control over these processes remains challenging. Here, we investigate scan-path- and initial-state-dependent switching in epitaxial (111)-oriented PbZr 0.2 Ti 0.8 O 3 thin films using automated AFM-based writing combined with quantitative 3D piezoresponse force microscopy. We show that the scan trajectory acts as an experimentally accessible control parameter for superdomain formation. Box-in-box raster scans reproducibly stabilize ordered stripe superdomains with a reduced subset of symmetry-allowed variants, whereas spiral trajectories generate frustrated mixed-variant states with a broader distribution of final microstructures. Automated pulsing experiments further show that the local superdomain configuration at the nucleation site strongly influences the final written morphology. Phase-field modeling qualitatively reproduces the contrast between representative initial-state geometries and supports the role of compatibility constraints among competing ferroelastic pathways. These findings establish scan-path and initial-state engineering as practical handles to program ferroic order in hierarchical ferroelectric domain structures.

Vasudevan, Rama K. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Disorder-induced spin-cluster magnetism in a doped kagome spin liquid candidate

The search for new quantum spin liquid materials relies on systems with strong frustration such as spins on an ideal kagome lattice. However, lattice imperfections can have substantial effects which are as yet not well understood. In recent work, the two-dimensional kagome system YCu 3 ⁢(OH) 6 ⁢[(Cl 𝑥 ⁢Br (1−𝑥) ) 3−𝑦 ⁢(OH) 𝑦 ] has emerged as a leading candidate hosting a Dirac spin liquid which appears to survive at least for 𝑥 < 0.4, associated with alternating-bond-hexagon (ABH) disorder. Here in magnetic samples with 𝑥 = 0.58, 𝑦 = 0.1 we report unusual in-plane ferromagnetic canting (FM) of the in-plane antiferromagnet (AFM), with an unusually wide regime of short-ranged order, and propose theoretical models to explain this behavior. First, we show that Kitaev-type exchanges naturally arise on the kagome lattice to second order in the known Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya exchanges, and that these interactions can produce the unusual in-plane FM canting from antichiral AFM. Second, we propose a phenomenological model of weakly FM-canted spin clusters to describe the short-ranged regime and analyze quantum fluctuations in an ABH toy model to show how ABH disorder can stabilize this regime. Here, the combination of experimental observation and theory suggests that kagome-Kitaev interactions and ABH disorder are necessary for describing the magnetic fluctuations in this family of materials, with potential implications for the proposed proximate spin liquid phase.

Seth, Arnab [Georgia Institute of Technology, Atla↗

DOE OSTI2026

Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS) v0.8 Model Documentation

The Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite, or PRAS, is a software package for studying power system resource adequacy. It allows the user to simulate power system operations under a wide range of operating conditions, in order to study the system's risk of failing to meet demand due to a resource shortfall, and identify the time periods and regions in which that risk occurs. This reports documents version 0.8 of the tool.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Large moiré superstructure of stacked incommensurate charge density waves

This article reports how two different charge density waves with slightly different wavevectors can exist in the same crystal and create moiré superstructure. Advances in heterostructure fabrication have opened new frontiers in moiré physics. Here we extend moiré engineering from artificially assembled thin flakes with mismatched lattice parameters to materials that host incommensurate orders, presenting a long-period moiré superlattice in a layered charge-density-wave compound, EuTe 4 . Using high-momentum-resolution X-ray diffraction, we found two coexisting incommensurate charge density waves with slightly mismatched in-plane wavevectors. The interaction between these two charge density waves leads to joint commensuration with the lattice and a moiré superstructure with a period of ~13.6 nm, offering key insights into the unique properties of EuTe4, such as the temperature-invariant incommensurate wavevectors and unconventional in-gap states. Owing to interlayer phase shifts, the moiré superstructure exhibits a clear thermal hysteresis, accounting for the large hysteresis in electrical resistivity and numerous metastable states. Our findings open new directions for moiré engineering based on incommensurate lattices and highlight the important role of interlayer ordering in stacked structures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗