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DOE OSTI2023

2023 Critical Materials Strategy

The global effort to curb carbon emissions is accelerating demand for clean energy technologies and the materials they rely on. Demand for these materials will only continue to grow, especially as some nations aim to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. While some major materials like steel, copper, and aluminum are already powering the fossil fuel economy, others are more minor materials with potential supply risks. These risks could jeopardize the ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions within the desirable timeframe to avoid significant climate change. In some cases, it may be necessary to take action to improve the resilience of material supply chains and mitigate supply risks. Understanding the importance of individual materials to clean energy and the supply risks associated with them is necessary to identify which materials may serve as potential roadblocks to a clean energy future. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) issued a series of 13 supply chain deep dive assessment reports on various energy technologies in 2022 in response to President Biden’s Executive Order on America’s Supply Chains (E.O. 14017). These reports emphasized that supply chain bottlenecks can occur at any stage of the value chain from mining and refining to component and even sub-system manufacturing. The bottlenecks are a combination of factors such as material availability, equipment availability, work force availability and quality, logistics, regulatory framework, and market conditions. These bottlenecks were worsened during the global Covid-19 pandemic. Its lingering impacts have hindered capacity expansion for material supply chains and prevented product lead-time recovery. One approach to reduce supply chain risks for the United States is to have a strong domestic manufacturing sector with a diverse set of producers. Boosting responsible domestic production would require leveraging the latest science not only in material extraction but also in developing substitutes, recycling, reuse, and remanufacturing. This report is an updated analysis of previous Critical Materials Strategy (CMS) reports published by the DOE in 2010, 2011, and 2019 based on national and global priorities, technology advancement, and technology adoption trends. Like the CMS reports, this analysis presents the results of a formal material criticality assessment to identify which materials are critical to the continued deployment of clean energy technologies globally. The analysis in this report leveraged the DOE supply chain deep dive assessments to develop the initial list of materials to evaluate. This DOE Critical Materials Assessment (CMA) is conducted independently of criticality assessments performed by other U.S. government agencies, such as that conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). This analysis complements the USGS critical minerals determination in three aspects. First, the DOE assessment is performed from a global perspective, while the USGS analysis focusses on the importance of minerals to the U.S. economy. Second, this report focuses on the importance of materials to clean energy technologies, rather than to the economy in general. Lastly, this study is forward looking to 2035 based on clean energy deployment scenarios, whereas the USGS assessment is retrospective. Materials evaluated in this report that do not appear in the USGS Critical Minerals List include copper, uranium, electrical steel, and SiC. A draft version of this report received ~80 public comments related to supporting data and methodological improvement. Those comments have been incorporated as much as possible where appropriate. Highlights of findings from this 2023 CMA include: Rare earth materials (neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium) used in magnets in electric vehicle (EV) motors and wind turbine generators continue to be critical. While dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb) are both heavy rare earth elements that serve the same function in magnets, the criticality of Tb is slightly lower than that for Dy in the short term due to the widespread use of Dy in high-grade magnets and Tb’s present role as a substitute. Similarly, praseodymium (Pr) is critical in the medium term but only near critical in the short term because it is more substitutable in magnets than neodymium (Nd); Materials used in batteries for EVs and stationary storage are now considered to be critical. While cobalt (Co) was found to be critical in this and previous reports, lithium (Li) becomes critical in the medium term due to its broader use in various battery chemistries and the rampant growth of the EV industry. Natural graphite is a new addition in this assessment and is also found to be critical; Platinum group metals used in hydrogen electrolyzers, such as platinum (Pr) and iridium (Ir), are critical due to an increased focus on hydrogen technologies to achieve net zero carbon emissions, while those used in catalytic converters, such as rhodium (Rh) and palladium (Pd), were screened out due to the decreased importance of catalytic converters in the medium term; Gallium (Ga) continues to be critical due to its use in light-emitting diodes (LEDs). In addition, the use of Ga has increased in magnet manufacturing and in semiconductor in forms such as gallium arsenide (GaAs) or gallium nitride (GaN); Major materials like Aluminum (Al), copper (Cu), nickel (Ni), and silicon (Si) move from noncritical in the short term to near critical in the medium term due to their importance in electrification; Electrical steel is near critical due to its use in transformers for the grid and electric motors in EVs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Feasibility Testing of Delayed Scintillator Screens for Indirect Digital Neutron Radiography of Irradiated Nuclear Fuel

Neutron radiography provides information about the internal condition of irradiated nuclear fuels. Traditionally, neutron radiography of highly radioactive irradiated nuclear fuels has been done with film using indirect radiography methods.[1] While indirect film neutron radiography is insensitive to gamma radiation from radioactive samples, it is a time-consuming and labor-intensive process. Digital neutron radiography requires a fraction of the time to produce a neutron radiograph compared to film-based processes. However, electronic components of digital radiography systems can easily be damaged by gamma radiation, which typically precludes use of digital systems for examination of highly radioactive objects, though recent work has demonstrated that some digital neutron radiography systems can indeed directly examine such samples.[2,3] This paper describes experiments performed using a hybrid transfer-digital method with an activated scintillator screen that can record an image that is subsequently read by a digital camera. The screens used in this study use a dysprosium neutron converter that records a latent image in the form of activation while in a neutron beam, then is physically transported away from the beam and sample to a digital camera elsewhere to record the image while the activated dysprosium decays and the adjacent scintillator produces light from interactions with the decay radiation. This approach could accelerate radiographic examination of irradiated nuclear fuels compared to the current transfer method with film. Current indirect imaging infrastructure was modified and augmented with a digital system. A digital neutron radiograph of a highly-radioactive irradiated nuclear fuel pins was produced in ~20 minutes, which is a significant improvement compared to the current process that takes almost a full day to produce a radiograph.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Magnetic separation of Dy(III) ions from homogeneous aqueous solutions

The possibility to enrich paramagnetic dysprosium(III) ions in a magnetic field gradient is proved by means of interferometry, which may open the route for a magnetic separation of rare earth ions from aqueous solutions. The separation dynamics are studied for three different concentrations of DyCl{sub 3} and compared with those found recently in a sulphate solution of the 3d ion Mn(II). In view of the similar-sized hydration spheres for Dy(III) and Mn(II), the slower separation dynamics in DyCl{sub 3} is attributed to both a higher densification coefficient and the strong impact of Brownian motion due to the absence of ion-pair clusters.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2018

Red and Yellow Luminescence of Eu{sup 3+}/Dy{sup 3+} Co-Doped Hydroxyapatite/β-Tricalcium Phosphate Single Phosphors Synthesized Using Coprecipitation Method

This paper reports the first attempt at the synthesis of single phosphors of europium (Eu{sup 3+}) and dysprosium (Dy{sup 3+}) co-doped hydroxyapatite (HA)/β-tricalcium phosphate (TCP) nanostructures providing strong red and yellow luminescence depending on annealing temperature and holding time. The morphology of the phosphors was observed to have a nanowire structure. The photoluminescence (PL) intensity of the phosphors increases with annealing temperature and time. The luminescent phosphors also showed the typical luminescence of Eu{sup 3+} centered at 610 nm and Dy{sup 3+} centered at 572 nm, which was more efficient for the annealed Eu{sup 3+}/Dy{sup 3+} co-doped HA/TCP phosphors than for as-synthesized ones. These results suggest that the Eu{sup 3+} and Dy{sup 3+} co-doped HA/TCP nanostructures can find potential application in plant cultivation as environment friendly phosphors.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Thermodynamic Investigation of the Effect of Target Compositions and Conditions of Their Magnetron Sputtering on Phase Compositions of the Resulting Films

A thermodynamic investigation of plasmochemical processes taking place in a magnetron during sputtering of the targets consisting of indium and dysprosium ions is performed, which allowed identifying the feasibility of forming under the given conditions certain amounts of the chemical compounds In{sub 2}O{sub 3}, Dy{sub 2}O{sub 3}, DyInO{sub 3}. In the thermodynamic analysis of the equilibrium compositions during magnetron sputtering of the films, a universal TERRA software program is used.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2014

Comparison of structural and luminescence properties of Dy{sub 2}O{sub 3} nanopowders synthesized by co-precipitation and green combustion routes

Highlights: • Dy{sub 2}O{sub 3} nanopowders were prepared by co-precipitation and eco-friendly green combustion route using plant latex. • Both the products show excellent chromaticity coordinates in the white region, which were quite useful for white LED’s. • Thermoluminescence response of the Dy{sub 2}O{sub 3} product prepared by green synthesis was higher when compared to co-precipitation route. • Structural parameters of Dy{sub 2}O{sub 3} were estimated using Rietveld refinement. • The development of nanosize materials using eco-friendly resources was an attractive non-hazardous chemical route. - Abstract: Dysprosium oxide (Dy{sub 2}O{sub 3}) nanopowders were prepared by co-precipitation (CP) and eco-friendly green combustion (GC) routes. SEM micrographs prepared by CP route show smooth rods with various lengths and diameters while, GC route show porous, agglomerated particles. The results were further confirmed by TEM. Thermoluminescence (TL) responses of the nanopowder prepared by both the routes were studied using γ-rays. A well resolved glow peak at 353 °C along with less intense peak at 183 °C was observed in GC route while, in CP a single glow peak at 364 °C was observed. The kinetic parameters were estimated using Chen’s glow peak route. Photoluminescence (PL) of Dy{sub 2}O{sub 3} shows peaks at 481, 577, 666 and 756 nm which were attributed to Dy{sup 3+} transitions of {sup 4}F{sub 9/2}⟶{sup 6}H{sub 15/2}, {sup 6}H{sub 13/2}, {sup 6}H{sub 11/2} and {sup 6}H{sub 9/2}, respectively. Color co-ordinate values were located in the white region as a result the product may be useful for the fabrication of WLED’S.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2014

Ultrasonic effect on the bubble nucleation and heat transfer of oscillating nanofluid

Ultrasonic sound effect on bubble nucleation, oscillating motion activated by bubble formation, and its heat transfer enhancement of nanofluid was experimentally investigated. Nanofluid consists of distilled water and dysprosium (III) oxide (Dy{sub 2}O{sub 3}) nanoparticles with an average size of 98 nm and a mass ratio of 0.5%. Visualization results demonstrate that when the nanoparticles are added in the fluid influenced by the ultrasonic sound, bubble nucleation can be significantly enhanced. The oscillating motion initiated by the bubble formation of nanofluid under the influence of ultrasonic sound can significantly enhance heat transfer of nanofluid in an interconnected capillary loop.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2014

Optimizing white light luminescence in Dy{sup 3+}-doped Lu{sub 3}Ga{sub 5}O{sub 12} nano-garnets

Trivalent dysprosium-doped Lu{sub 3}Ga{sub 5}O{sub 12} nano-garnets have been prepared by sol-gel method and characterized by X-ray powder diffraction, high-resolution transmission electron microscopy, dynamic light scattering, and laser excited spectroscopy. Under a cw 457 nm laser excitation, the white luminescence properties of Lu{sub 3}Ga{sub 5}O{sub 12} nano-garnets have been studied as a function of the optically active Dy{sup 3+} ion concentration and at low temperature. Decay curves for the {sup 4}F{sub 9/2} level of Dy{sup 3+} ion exhibit non-exponential nature for all the Dy{sup 3+} concentrations, which have been well-fitted to a generalized energy transfer model for a quadrupole-quadrupole interaction between Dy{sup 3+} ions without diffusion. From these data, a simple rate-equations model can be applied to predict that intense white luminescence could be obtained from 1.8 mol% Dy{sup 3+} ions-doped nano-garnets, which is in good agreement with experimental results. Chromaticity color coordinates and correlated color temperatures have been determined as a function of temperature and are found to be within the white light region for all Dy{sup 3+} concentrations. These results indicate that 2.0 mol% Dy{sup 3+} ions doped nano-garnet could be useful for white light emitting device applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2015

Probing on green long persistent Eu{sup 2+}/Dy{sup 3+} doped Sr{sub 3}SiAl{sub 4}O{sub 11} emerging phosphor for security applications

Herein, a novel green emitting long-persistent Sr{sub 3}SiAl{sub 4}O{sub 11}:Eu{sup 2+}/Dy{sup 3+} phosphor was synthesized in a single phase form using facile solid state reaction method under the reducing atmosphere of 10% H{sub 2} and 90% N{sub 2}. The resulting phosphor exhibits hyper-sensitive strong broad green emission, peaking at 510 nm upon 340 nm excitation wavelength, which is attributed to the 4f{sup 6}5d{sup 1}-4f{sup 7} transitions of emission center of europium (Eu{sup 2+}) ions. Moreover, the incorporation of dysprosium (Dy{sup 3+}) ions, which act as effective hole trap centers with appropriate depth, largely enhances the photoluminescence characteristics and greatly improves the persistent intense luminescence behavior of Sr{sub 3}SiAl{sub 4}O{sub 11}:Eu{sup 2+}/Dy{sup 3+} phosphor under ultraviolet (UV) excitation. In addition, with the optimum doping concentration and sufficient UV excitation time period, the as-synthesized phosphor can be persisted afterglow for time duration ∼4 h with maximum luminescence intensity. Thus, these results suggest that this phosphor could be expected as an ultimate choice for next generation advanced luminescent materials in security applications such as latent finger-marks detection, photo-masking induced phosphorescent images, and security code detection.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2015

Heavy rotation – evolution of quadrupole collectivity centred at the neutron-rich doubly mid-shell nucleus {sup 170}Dy

In this contribution the low-excitation structural properties of the doubly mid-shell nucleus {sup 170}Dy are discussed, with a special empasis on the evolution of the ground state rotational band within the dysprosium isotopic chain. Recent results from an experiment with the EURICA setup at RIKEN are shown in the context of previous measurements at the PRISMA+CLARA as well as the PRISMA+AGATA setups at Laboratori Nazionali di Legnaro. A brief outlook on future planned measurements is also given.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2015

Predictive model for ionic liquid extraction solvents for rare earth elements

The purpose of our study was to select the most effective ionic liquid extraction solvents for dysprosium (III) fluoride using a theoretical approach. Conductor-like Screening Model for Real Solvents (COSMO-RS), based on quantum chemistry and the statistical thermodynamics of predefined DyF{sub 3}-ionic liquid systems, was applied to reach the target. Chemical potentials of the salt were predicted in 4,400 different ionic liquids. On the base of these predictions set of ionic liquids’ ions, manifesting significant decrease of the chemical potentials, were selected. Considering the calculated physicochemical properties (hydrophobicity, viscosity) of the ionic liquids containing these specific ions, the most effective extraction solvents for liquid-liquid extraction of DyF{sub 3} were proposed. The obtained results indicate that the COSMO-RS approach can be applied to quickly screen the affinity of any rare earth element for a large number of ionic liquid systems, before extensive experimental tests.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2017

Electrochemical Behavior of Lanthanum in Molten LiF-NaF-KF 'Flinak' Eutectic Salt

In order to develop the Fluoride High- Temperature Reactor, an emerging Gen-IV reactor concept, a primary coolant cleanup system must be developed to allow online reprocessing of the primary molten fluoride salt. This research is focused on the determination of electrochemical properties of rare earths (REs) in molten fluoride salt related to the FHR. The FHR utilizes two fluoride salts. These fluoride salts are LiF-NaF-KF (46.5-11.5-42 mol%), melting point 454 deg. C, also known as 'Flinak', and LiFBeF{sub 2} (33-67 mol%), melting point 459 deg. C, also known as 'Flibe'. Flibe is selected as the primary coolant salt due to its low neutron cross-section (Li{sup 7}-enriched), superior heat transfer properties, and low melting point. However, due to the beryllium content in Flibe, it is highly toxic to humans and Flinak is preferred for the secondary and tertiary coolant salts. The work presented here is specifically focused on the behavior of lanthanum trifluoride (LaF{sub 3}) in molten Flinak. Furthermore, updated data and analysis regarding the electrochemical behavior of dysprosium trifluoride (DyF{sub 3}) is also presented. Previous work related to this topic was presented at the 2016 ANS winter conference. The goal of this research is to develop a contaminant cleanup system for the primary loop of the FHR.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Selective Extraction and Recovery of Nd and Dy from Nd-Fe-B Magnet Scrap by Utilizing Molten MgCl{sub 2}

Fundamental experiments are conducted with the aim of developing an efficient recycling process for rare earth elements (REEs) from neodymium-iron-boron (Nd-Fe-B) permanent magnet scrap. Molten magnesium dichloride (MgCl{sub 2}) was chosen as an extraction medium, which can selectively chlorinate and extract REEs in magnet alloys. Dysprosium-containing Nd-Fe-B magnet alloy was immersed in molten MgCl{sub 2} at 1273 K (1000 °C) for 3 to 12 hours. The results of the experiments clearly show that the REEs in the magnetic alloy were successfully extracted into the molten salt, while the Fe-B alloy remained in a solid form. The extraction ratios of Nd and Dy were at most 87 and 78 mass pct, respectively. After the extraction experiment, excess MgCl{sub 2} and Mg were removed by vacuum distillation and the rare earth chlorides were recovered. Thus, the feasibility of this method for efficient recovery of rare earths using molten MgCl{sub 2} is demonstrated.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2012

Synthesis, crystal structures and properties of lanthanide-organic frameworks based benzene carboxylates with two/three-dimensional structure

A series of lanthanide coordination polymers, {l_brace}[Dy{sub 3}(1,3-BDC){sub 4}(NO{sub 3})(phen){sub 3}]{center_dot}2H{sub 2}O{r_brace}{sub n} (1), {l_brace}[Dy{sub 2}(1,3-BDC){sub 3}(H{sub 2}O){sub 2}]{center_dot}H{sub 2}O{r_brace}{sub n} (2), {l_brace}[Ln{sub 4}(1,3-BDC){sub 6}(DMF)(H{sub 2}O){sub 4}]{center_dot}DMF{center_dot}2H{sub 2}O{r_brace}{sub n} (Ln=Tb (3), Ho (4), Er (5), 1,3-H{sub 2}BDC=1,3-benzenedicarboxylate, phen=1,10-phenanthroline, DMF=N,N-dimethylformamide), have been synthesized and characterized. In coordination polymer 1, each Dy{sup 3+} ion is connected to its neighboring Dy{sup 3+} ion through bridging carboxyl oxygen atoms of the 1,3-BDC{sup 2-} ligands to form a new three-dimensional open-framework structure which the Schlaefli symbol of {l_brace}6{sup 4}{center_dot}8{sup 2}{r_brace}{sub 2}{l_brace}6{sup 6}{r_brace}. In coordination polymer 2, center metal dysprosium ions are interlaced and connected through bridging carboxyl oxygen atoms to form an infinite helix chain. Two helix chains are linked through the 1,3-BDC{sup 2-} ligand to give rise to the two-dimensional layered structure. Coordination polymers 3-5 are isomorphous, which displays a (3,4)-connected net with the point symbol of {l_brace}4{sup 2}{center_dot}6{sup 3}{center_dot}8{r_brace}{l_brace}4{sup 2}{center_dot}6{r_brace}. The solid-state photoluminescence properties and lifetimes of the Dy (1 and 2) and Tb (3) coordination polymers have been measured at room temperature. Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Five lanthanide coordination polymers based on 1,3-H{sub 2}BDC were obtained. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The polymers were structurally characterized by single-crystal X-ray diffraction. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Coordination polymers 1-5 display different topological structures. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer They show characteristic emissions of lanthanide ions in the solid state.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2015

On the photo-luminescence properties of sol–gel derived undoped and Dy{sup 3+} ion doped nanocrystalline Scheelite type AMoO{sub 4} (A = Ca, Sr and Ba)

Nanocrystalline Scheelite type Dy doped AMoO{sub 4} [where A = Ba, Sr and Ca] samples were prepared by acrylamide assisted sol–gel process and characterized by XRD, FT-Raman, FTIR, SEM and photoluminescence (PL). PL of undoped sample shows blue/green emission in CaMoO{sub 4} and SrMoO{sub 4} but multicolour visible emission leading to near white light in BaMoO{sub 4} nanoparticles; the origin of which is explained. It was observed that on doping 0.5 mol% of Dy{sup 3+} in molybdate samples complete energy transfer takes place in case of SrMoO{sub 4} and BaMoO{sub 4}, but host contributed substantially in Dy doped BaMoO{sub 4} sample, resulting in biexponential decay. It was also observed that symmetry around Dy{sup 3+} decreases as the size of alkaline earth ion increases. Due to combined blue, yellow and red colour emission in dysprosium doped sample; all samples showed near white light emission under UV and near UV excitation.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2016

Near white light emitting ZnAl{sub 2}O{sub 4}:Dy{sup 3+} nanocrystals: Sol–gel synthesis and luminescence studies

Highlights: • ZnAl{sub 2}O{sub 4}:Dy{sup 3+} spinel synthesized using sol–gel method. • Characterized by XRD, SEM and PL spectroscopy. • Investigations of emission, excitation and lifetime properties. • Evaluation of defect centers and trap parameters of the system. • Evaluation of CIE indices of near white light emitting phosphor. - Abstract: ZnAl{sub 2}O{sub 4}:Dy{sup 3+} nanoparticles were synthesized using citrate sol–gel method and characterized systematically using X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy and photoluminescence spectroscopy. Emission spectrum of pure ZnAl{sub 2}O{sub 4} shows intense violet blue emission under ultra violet irradiation. Based on electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) results; it was attributed to presence of singly ionized oxygen vacancy centres in ZnAl{sub 2}O{sub 4}. On doping Dy{sup 3+} in ZnAl{sub 2}O{sub 4}, complete host–dopant energy transfer does not take place. Local structural investigation and lifetime measurements reveal that dysprosium ion is distributed between both Zn{sup 2+} and Al{sup 3+} sites. Near white light from ZnAl{sub 2}O{sub 4}:Dy{sup 3+} is attributed to combined host and dopant luminescence. The trap parameters such as activation energy (E) and frequency factor (s) for TSL glow peak 165 °C were determined using different heating rate method. Thermally stimulated emission showed the presence of oxygen related defect centre.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Controlled Dy-doping to nickel-rich cathode materials in high temperature aerosol synthesis

Layered nickel-rich materials are promising next-generation cathode materials for lithium ion batteries due to their high capacity and low cost. However, the poor thermal stability and longtime cycling performance hinders the commercial applications of high nickel materials. Doping with heteroatoms has been an effective approach for improving electrochemical performance of cathode materials. Controlling doping concentration and geometrical distribution is desired for optimal electrochemical performance, but it is challenging in traditional co-precipitation methods. In this work, controlled dysprosium (Dy) doping to NCM811 was studied in an aerosol synthesis method by controlling the precursor concentrations and heating parameters. The obtained materials were characterized by SEM, XRD, and XPS, and their electrochemical properties and thermal stability were evaluated. By controlling the doping concentration (1.5%), Dy-doped NCM811 was improved simultaneously in long-term cycling and high-rate performance. Here, the thermal-chemical stability of the Dy-doped cathode materials was examined in a microflow reactor with a mass spectrometer. The results showed that Dy-doping shifted the O 2 onset temperature to a higher temperature and reduced O 2 release by 80%, thus dramatically increasing the thermal-chemical stability and improving the fire safety of cathode materials. Since high temperature aerosol synthesis is a low-cost and scalable method, the findings in this work have broad implications for commercial synthesis of novel materials with controlled doping modification to achieve high electrochemical performance and safety in lithium ion batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2015

Global critical materials markets: An agent-based modeling approach

As part of efforts to position the United States as a leader in clean energy technology production, the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) issued two Critical Materials Strategy reports, which assessed 16 materials on the basis of their importance to clean energy development and their supply risk ( U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), 2010 and DOE, 2011). To understand the implications for clean energy of disruptions in supplies of critical materials, it is important to understand supply chain dynamics from mining to final product production. As a case study of critical material supply chains, we focus on the supply of two rare earth metals, neodymium (Nd) and dysprosium (Dy), for permanent magnets used in wind turbines, electric vehicles and other applications. We introduce GCMat, a dynamic agent-based model that includes interacting agents at five supply chain stages consisting of mining, metal refining, magnet production, final product production and demand. Agents throughout the supply chain make pricing, production and inventory management decisions. Deposit developers choose which deposits to develop based on market conditions and detailed data on 57 rare earth deposits. Wind turbine and electric vehicle producers choose from a set of possible production technologies that require different amounts of rare earths. We ran the model under a baseline scenario and four alternative scenarios with different demand and production technology inputs. Model results from 2010 to 2013 fit well with historical data. Projections through 2025 show a number of possible future price, demand, and supply trajectories. For each scenario, we highlight reasons for turning points under market conditions, for differences between Nd and Dy markets, and for differences between scenarios. Because GCMat can model causal dynamics and provide fine-grain representation of agents and their decisions, it provides explanations for turning points under market conditions that are not otherwise available from other modeling approaches. Our baseline projections show very different behaviors for Nd and Dy prices. Nd prices continue to drop and remain low even at the end of our simulation period as new capacity comes online and leads to a market in which production capacity outpaces demand. Dy price movements, on the other hand, change directions several times with several key turning points related to inventory behaviors of particular agents in the supply chain and asymmetric supply and demand trends. Scenario analyses show the impact of stronger demand growth for rare earths, and in particular finds that Nd price impacts are significantly delayed as compared to Dy. This is explained by the substantial excess production capacity for Nd in the early simulation years that keeps prices down. Scenarios that explore the impact of reducing the Dy content of magnets show the intricate interdependencies of these two markets as price trends for both rare earths reverse directions – reducing the Dy content of magnets reduces Dy demand, which drives down Dy prices and translates into lower magnet prices. This in turn raises the demand for magnets and therefore the demand for Nd and eventually drives up the Nd price.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗