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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2022

BASIN-3D: A brokering framework to integrate diverse environmental data

Diverse observational and simulation datasets are needed to understand and predict complex ecosystem behavior over seasonal to decadal and century time-scales. Integration of these datasets poses a major barrier towards advancing environmental science, particularly due to differences in the structure and formats of data provided by various sources. Here, we describe BASIN-3D (Broker for Assimilation, Synthesis and Integration of eNvironmental Diverse, Distributed Datasets), a data integration framework designed to dynamically retrieve and transform heterogeneous data from different sources into a common format to provide an integrated view. BASIN-3D enables users to adopt a standardized approach for data retrieval and avoid customizations for the data type or source. We demonstrate the value of BASIN-3D with two use cases that require integration of data from regional to watershed spatial scales. The first application uses the BASIN-3D Python library to integrate time-series hydrological and meteorological data to provide standardized inputs to analytical and machine learning codes in order to predict the impacts of hydrological disturbances on large river corridors of the United States. The second application uses the BASIN-3D Django framework to integrate diverse time-series data in a mountainous watershed in East River, Colorado, United States to enable scientific researchers to explore and download data through an interactive web portal. Thus, BASIN-3D can be used to support data integration for both web-based tools, as well as data analytics using Python scripting and extensions like Jupyter notebooks. The framework is expected to be transferable to and useful for many other field and modeling studies.

Varadharajan, C↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty-Aware Machine Learning for Small-Angle X-ray Scattering Analysis in Autonomous Experimentation

Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) is a powerful high-throughput characterization tool for probing nanoscale structure in native sample environments, providing real-time morphological information such as nanoparticle size and shape during synthesis. However, automated SAXS data analysis for extracting meaningful structural parameters is non-trivial and remains a bottleneck in closed-loop experimentation towards autonomous materials discovery, which demands fast, reliable, and uncertainty-aware data analysis. Here, we develop a machine-learning approach for automated SAXS analysis tailored to closed-loop nanoparticle synthesis. A Random Forest (RF) regression model is trained on 100,000 synthetic SAXS curves generated from polydisperse spherical nanoparticles with realistic background contributions. Using normalized one-dimensional SAXS intensity profiles as input, the RF model directly predicts nanoparticle radius, size polydispersity, and background parameters, while the ensemble standard deviation across trees provides built-in uncertainty quantification (UQ). On synthetic data, we show that combining fit-quality metrics (R 2 , MAE) with thresholds on prediction uncertainty reliably identifies accurate parameter estimates without access to ground truth. We then apply the trained model to 365 experimental SAXS profiles of citrate-reduced gold nanoparticles synthesized using an automated droplet-flow microreactor with in situ SAXS at a synchrotron beamline, classifying the results into high- and low-confidence subsets based on UQ metrics. Finally, we integrate RF-based SAXS analysis into a simulated closed-loop optimization campaign using Gaussian process Bayesian optimization to minimize nanoparticle polydispersity, benchmarking against conventional automated Levenberg–Marquardt fitting. The RF-guided campaign exhibits substantially faster convergence and lower relative opportunity cost (∼0.07 vs ∼0.3), demonstrating that uncertainty-aware machine-learning SAXS analysis significantly enhances the efficiency and robustness of autonomous nanomaterials synthesis workflows.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2023

Unlocking the potential of DNA-based tagging: current market solutions and expanding horizons

The commercialization of DNA tagging is a growing trend that demonstrates the increasing practicality of this novel approach. This interdisciplinary technology is based on the distinctive characteristics of DNA as a molecule that can remain stable in varying environmental conditions and store data following appropriate preparation. Moreover, newly developed technologies could simplify DNA synthesis and the encoding of data within DNA. The implementation of DNA tagging presents distinctive benefits in comparison to conventional labelling techniques, including universal product code (UPC) barcoding, radio-frequency identification (RFID), quick response (QR) codes, and Bluetooth technologies, by surmounting the limitations encountered by these systems. The discourse pertains to extant DNA-tagging mechanisms along with prospective implementations in a wide range of domains, including but not limited to art, the metaverse, forensics, wildlife monitoring, and the military. The potential of DNA labelling in various contexts underscores the importance of continued research and development in this rapidly evolving field.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Structural elucidation of the cis -prenyltransferase NgBR/DHDDS complex reveals insights in regulation of protein glycosylation

Cis-prenyltransferase (cis-PTase) catalyzes the rate-limiting step in the synthesis of glycosyl carrier lipids required for protein glycosylation in the lumen of endoplasmic reticulum. Here, we report the crystal structure of the human NgBR/DHDDS complex, which represents an atomic resolution structure for any heterodimeric cis-PTase. The crystal structure sheds light on how NgBR stabilizes DHDDS through dimerization, participates in the enzyme’s active site through its C-terminal -RXG- motif, and how phospholipids markedly stimulate cis-PTase activity. Comparison of NgBR/DHDDS with homodimeric cis-PTase structures leads to a model where the elongating isoprene chain extends beyond the enzyme’s active site tunnel, and an insert within the α3 helix helps to stabilize this energetically unfavorable state to enable long-chain synthesis to occur. These data provide unique insights into how heterodimeric cis-PTases have evolved from their ancestral, homodimeric forms to fulfill their function in long-chain polyprenol synthesis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A reporting format for field measurements of soil respiration

Field observations of the soil-to-atmosphere CO2 flux–soil respiration, RS–are a prime example of ‘long tail’ data that historically have had neither centralized databases nor an agreed-upon reporting format. This has hindered scientific transparency, analytical reproducibility, and novel syntheses with respect to this globally-important component of the carbon cycle. Here we propose a new data and metadata reporting format for RS data, based on engagement with a wide range of researchers in the field as well as expert advisory panels. Our goal was a reporting format that would be relevant and useful for synthesis activities, and optimizing data discoverability and usability while not placing an undue burden on data contributors. We describe previous RS data collection efforts, lessons learned from related databases and data-oriented networks (e.g. FLUXNET) in earth and ecological sciences, and the process of community consultation. The proposed reporting format focuses on chamber-level data and metadata, specifying measurement conditions and, for a given measurement period defined by beginning and ending timestamps, a mean RS flux (or CO2 concentration) and associated ancillary measurements. Fundamentally, this format aims to enable findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable data, while providing ‘future-proofing’ capabilities to support reanalyses using as yet unknown algorithms or approaches. Finally, this proposed RS reporting format is available online, and is intended to be a dynamic document, subject to further community feedback and/or change in the future.

Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin↗
DOE OSTI2020

Active Learning-driven Quantitative Synthesis-Structure-Property Relations for Improving Performance and Revealing Active Sites of Nitrogen-Doped Carbon for the Hydrogen Evolution Reaction

While quantitative structure-properties relations (QSPRs) have been developed successfully in multiple fields, catalyst synthesis affects structure and in turn performance, making simple QSPRs inadequate. Furthermore, catalysts often have multiple active sites preventing one from obtaining insights into structure-property relations. Here, we develop a data-driven quantitative synthesis-structure-property relation (QS2PRs) methodology to elucidate correlations between catalyst synthesis conditions, structural properties as well as observed performance and to provide fundamental insights into active sites and a systematic way to optimize practical catalysts. Here, we demonstrate the approach to the synthesis of nitrogen-doped catalysts (NDC) made via pyrolysis for the performance of the electrochemical hydrogen evolution reaction (HER), quantified by the onset potential and the current density. We determine crystallinity, nitrogen species type and fraction, surface area, and pore structure of the NDC’s using XRD, XPS, and BET characterization. We demonstrated that an active learning-based optimization combined with various elementary machine learning tools (regression, principal component analysis, partial least squares) can efficiently identify optimum pyrolysis conditions to tune structural characteristics and performance with concomitant savings in materials and experimental time. Unlike previous reports on the importance of pyridinic or graphitic nitrogen, we discover that the electrochemical performance is not driven by a single catalyst property; rather, it arises from a multivariate influence of nitrogen dopants, pore structure and disorder in the NDC materials. Identification of active sites can help mechanistic understanding and further catalyst improvement.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing dynamic vegetation model parameter uncertainty across Alaskan arctic tundra plant communities

Abstract As the Arctic region moves into uncharted territory under a warming climate, it is important to refine the terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) that help us understand and predict change. One fundamental uncertainty in TBMs relates to model parameters, configuration variables internal to the model whose value can be estimated from data. We incorporate a version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) developed for arctic ecosystems into the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) framework. PEcAn treats model parameters as probability distributions, estimates parameters based on a synthesis of available field data, and then quantifies both model sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter or suite of parameters. We examined how variation in 21 parameters in the equation for gross primary production influenced model sensitivity and uncertainty in terms of two carbon fluxes (net primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration) and two carbon (C) pools (vegetation C and soil C). We set up different parameterizations of TEM across a range of tundra types (tussock tundra, heath tundra, wet sedge tundra, and shrub tundra) in northern Alaska, along a latitudinal transect extending from the coastal plain near Utqiaġvik to the southern foothills of the Brooks Range, to the Seward Peninsula. TEM was most sensitive to parameters related to the temperature regulation of photosynthesis. Model uncertainty was mostly due to parameters related to leaf area, temperature regulation of photosynthesis, and the stomatal responses to ambient light conditions. Our analysis also showed that sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter varied spatially. At some sites, model sensitivity and uncertainty tended to be connected to a wider range of parameters, underlining the importance of assessing tundra community processes across environmental gradients or geographic locations. Generally, across sites, the flux of net primary productivity (NPP) and pool of vegetation C had about equal uncertainty, while heterotrophic respiration had higher uncertainty than the pool of soil C. Our study illustrates the complexity inherent in evaluating parameter uncertainty across highly heterogeneous arctic tundra plant communities. It also provides a framework for iteratively testing how newly collected field data related to key parameters may result in more effective forecasting of Arctic change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

MacroSheds: A synthesis of long-term biogeochemical, hydroclimatic, and geospatial data from small watershed ecosystem studies

The US Federal Government supports hundreds of watershed monitoring efforts from which solute fluxes can be calculated. Although instrumentation and methods vary between studies, the data collected and their motivating questions are remarkably similar. Nevertheless, little effort toward their compilation has previously been made. The MacroSheds project has developed a future-friendly system for harmonizing daily time series of streamflow, precipitation, and solute chemistry from 169+ watersheds, and supplementing each with watershed attributes. Here, we describe the breadth of MacroSheds data, and detail the steps involved in rendering each data product. We provide recommendations for usage and discuss when other datasets might be more suitable. The MacroSheds dataset is an unprecedented resource for watershed science, and for hydrology, as a small-watershed supplement to existing collections of streamflow predictors, like CAMELS and GAGES-II. The MacroSheds platform includes a web dashboard for visualization and an R package for data access and analysis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Case Study of Multimodal, Multi-institutional Data Management for the Combinatorial Materials Science Community

Although the convergence of high-performance computing, automation, and machine learning has significantly altered the materials design timeline, transformative advances in functional materials and acceleration of their design will require addressing the deficiencies that currently exist in materials informatics, particularly a lack of standardized experimental data management. The challenges associated with experimental data management are especially true for combinatorial materials science, where advancements in automation of experimental workflows have produced datasets that are often too large and too complex for human reasoning. The data management challenge is further compounded by the multimodal and multi-institutional nature of these datasets, as they tend to be distributed across multiple institutions and can vary substantially in format, size, and content. Furthermore, modern materials engineering requires the tuning of not only composition but also of phase and microstructure to elucidate processing–structure–property–performance relationships. To adequately map a materials design space from such datasets, an ideal materials data infrastructure would contain data and metadata describing (i) synthesis and processing conditions, (ii) characterization results, and (iii) property and performance measurements. In this work, we present a case study for the low-barrier development of such a dashboard that enables standardized organization, analysis, and visualization of a large data lake consisting of combinatorial datasets of synthesis and processing conditions, X-ray diffraction patterns, and materials property measurements generated at several different institutions. While this dashboard was developed specifically for data-driven thermoelectric materials discovery, we envision the adaptation of this prototype to other materials applications, and, more ambitiously, future integration into an all-encompassing materials data management infrastructure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bi-fidelity variational auto-encoder for uncertainty quantification

Quantifying the uncertainty of quantities of interest (QoIs) from physical systems is a primary objective in model validation. However, achieving this goal entails balancing the need for computational efficiency with the requirement for numerical accuracy. To address this trade-off, we propose a novel bi-fidelity formulation of variational auto-encoders (BF-VAE) designed to estimate the uncertainty associated with a QoI from low-fidelity (LF) and high-fidelity (HF) samples of the QoI. Here, this model allows for the approximation of the statistics of the HF QoI by leveraging information derived from its LF counterpart. Specifically, we design a bi-fidelity auto-regressive model in the latent space which is integrated within the VAE’s probabilistic encoder–decoder structure. An effective algorithm is proposed to maximize the variational lower bound of the HF log-likelihood in the presence of limited HF data, resulting in the synthesis of HF realizations with a reduced computational cost. Additionally, we introduce the concept of the bi-fidelity information bottleneck (BF-IB) to provide an information-theoretic interpretation of the proposed BF-VAE model. Our numerical results demonstrate that the BF-VAE leads to considerably improved accuracy, as compared to a VAE trained using only HF data, when limited HF data is available.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Aqueous spray-drying synthesis of alluaudite Na 2+2x Fe 2–x (SO 4 ) 3 sodium insertion material: studies of electrochemical activity, thermodynamic stability, and humidity-induced phase transition

In pursuit of high-energy density sodium insertion materials, polyanionic frameworks can be designed with tuneable high-voltage operation stemming from inductive effect. Alluaudite Na 2 Fe 2 (SO 4 ) 3 polysulfate forms one such earth-abundant compound registering the highest Fe 3+ /Fe 2+ redox potential (ca. 3.8 V vs. Na/Na + ). While this SO 4 -based system exhibits high voltage operation, it is prone to thermal decomposition and moisture attack leading to hydrated derivatives, making its synthesis cumbersome. Also, the Na–Fe–S–O quaternary system is rich with (anhydrous to hydrated) phase transitions. Herein, we demonstrate scalable aqueous-based spray drying synthesis of alluaudite Na 2+2x Fe 2–x (SO 4 ) 3 sodium insertion material involving the formation of bloedite Na 2 Fe(SO 4 ) 2 ·4H 2 O as an intermediate phase. Moreover, a reversible phase transition from alluaudite to bloedite under controlled conditions of temperature and relative humidity is reported for the first time. Thermochemistry measurements revealed the enthalpies of formation (ΔH° f ) of alluaudite and bloedite are exothermic. Hydrated bloedite (ΔH° f = –117.16 ± 1.10 kJ/mol) was found to be significantly more energetically stable than anhydrous alluaudite (ΔH° f = –11.76 ± 1.25 kJ/mol). The calorimetric data support the observed synthesis and transformation (hydration-dehydration) pathways. Spray drying route led to spherical morphology delivering capacity ~80 mAh/g. Spray drying can be extended for rapid economic synthesis of sulfate class of battery materials.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the state-of-the-art in remote volcanic eruption characterization Part II: Ulawun volcano, Papua New Guinea

Retrospective eruption characterization is valuable for advancing our understanding of volcanic systems and evaluating our observational capabilities, especially with remote technologies (defined here as a space-borne system or non-local, ground-based instrumentation which include regional and remote infrasound sensors). In June 2019, the open-system Ulawun volcano, Papua New Guinea, produced a VEI 4 eruption. We combined data from satellites (including Sentinel-2, TROPOMI, MODIS, Himawari-8), the International Monitoring System infrasound network, and GLD360 globally detected lightning with information from the local authorities and social media to characterize the pre-, syn- and post-eruptive behaviour. The Rabaul Volcano Observatory recorded ~24 h of seismicity and detected SO 2 emissions ~16 h before the visually-documented start of the Plinian phase on 26 June at 04:20 UTC. Infrasound and SO2 detections suggest the eruption started during the night on 24 June 2019 at 10:39 UTC ~38 h before ash detections with a gas-dominated jetting phase. Local reports and infrasound detections show that the second phase of the eruption started on 25 June 19:28 UTC with ~6 h of jetting. The first detected lightning occurred on 26 June 00:14 UTC, and ash emissions were first detected by Himawari-8 at 01:00 UTC. Post-eruptive satellite imagery indicates new flow deposits to the south and north of the edifice and ash fall to the west and southwest. In particular, regional infrasound data provided novel insight into eruption onset and syn-eruptive changes in intensity. We conclude that, while remote observations are sufficient for detection and tracking of syn-eruptive changes, key challenges in data latency, acquisition, and synthesis must be addressed to improve future near-real-time characterization of eruptions at minimally-monitored or unmonitored volcanoes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Examination of Replicate Syntheses of Metal Organic Frameworks as a Window into Reproducibility in Materials Chemistry

Replicate experiments are a useful tool in understanding the repeatability of scientific measurements. In 2019, a systematic search for replicate syntheses of a collection of 130 metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) found that 89% of these materials had no reported replicate syntheses apart from the original publications identifying the material (Agrawal, M. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 2020, 117, 877−88210.1073/pnas.1918484117). A potential weakness of that search was that only 5–11 years had elapsed since the original publication of each material. Here, this analysis is extended to all publications 11–17 years after the original publication. Although this extended time period identifies more repeat syntheses, 83% of the materials still have no reported replicate syntheses. We also consider how appropriately selected Density Functional Theory (DFT) calculations can provide corroboration for the experimentally reported crystal structures. By using data from previous high-throughput DFT studies, corroborating evidence from DFT was available for 17% of the 130 structures for which no replicate syntheses are available. In total, approximately 1/3 of the 130 MOFs have data associated with replicate synthesis experiments and/or directly corroborating DFT calculations.

Sholl, David S. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying Key Environmental Factors Explaining Temporal Patterns of DOC Export From Watersheds in the Conterminous United States

The export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from a watershed is a key component of the terrestrial biosphere carbon cycle. There is a need to improve our understanding of how and by how much various environmental factors are driving the temporal patterns of DOC export in order to accurately model and evaluate terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes. In this synthesis, we compiled observational data sets from 14 watersheds in the conterminous United States spanning the time period from 1981 to 2017. We used these data sets to examine the relative impacts of various climate, atmospheric deposition, and land cover factors on the temporal patterns of DOC export across watersheds of different sizes and landscape conditions, as well as the time-series autocorrelation of DOC export. Overall, our results suggest that the dominant factor on an annual scale was the amount of precipitation, which had a positive correlation with DOC export from a watershed. Overall increasing nitrogen deposition was coincident with increasing DOC export, and increasing sulfur deposition was coincident with declining DOC export. The seasonal pattern of DOC export was strongly regulated by air temperature, the long-term trend was negatively influenced by increasing sulfur deposition, and no obvious autocorrelation was detected in DOC export. In addition, higher rates of DOC export were positively correlated with greater area of wetlands within a watershed, but was not found to be strongly related to any of the other land cover types.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

An alternate route for cellulose microfibril biosynthesis in plants

Similar to cellulose synthases (CESAs), cellulose synthase–like D (CSLD) proteins synthesize β-1,4-glucan in plants. CSLDs are important for tip growth and cytokinesis, but it was unknown whether they form membrane complexes in vivo or produce microfibrillar cellulose. We produced viable CESA-deficient mutants of the moss Physcomitrium patens to investigate CSLD function without interfering CESA activity. Microscopy and spectroscopy showed that CESA-deficient mutants synthesize cellulose microfibrils that are indistinguishable from those in vascular plants. Correspondingly, freeze-fracture electron microscopy revealed rosette-shaped particle assemblies in the plasma membrane that are indistinguishable from CESA-containing rosette cellulose synthesis complexes (CSCs). Our data show that proteins other than CESAs, most likely CSLDs, produce cellulose microfibrils in P. patens protonemal filaments. The data suggest that the specialized roles of CSLDs in cytokinesis and tip growth are based on differential expression and different interactions with microtubules and possibly Ca 2+ , rather than structural differences in the microfibrils they produce.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Arctic Shrub Expansion, Plant Functional Trait Variation, and Effects on Belowground Carbon Cycling (Final Technical Report)

Terrestrial ecosystems are undergoing dramatic changes in response to climate warming, and these changes are expected to feedback to the atmosphere, potentially altering the trajectory of future climate change. Feedbacks from Arctic ecosystems are a major concern because the Arctic is projected to warm significantly in the 21 st century and because >50% of global belowground organic carbon is stored in permafrost and overlying soils. Warming-driven release of this carbon could drastically increase atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and accelerate climate warming. Plant communities are also responding to warming, as evidenced by the widely documented increase in woody-shrub growth and “greening” across much of the Arctic tundra biome. This vegetation shift may offset or amplify warming by altering carbon cycling. The direction and magnitude of shrub effects remain highly uncertain, however, due to limited understanding of the consequences of shrub expansion for belowground carbon cycling and simplification of these relationships in models. The major shrubs expanding in the Arctic (Betula, Salix, and Alnus) vary widely with respect to aboveground and belowground traits (e.g., tissue production and chemistry, rooting depth, microbial symbionts), and may also exhibit substantial intraspecific variation in these traits in response to environmental conditions. Such variation is likely to have profound implications for soil carbon cycling. The overarching goal of this project was to improve process-based understanding of the influence of shrub expansion on carbon cycling to enable improved representation of carbon dynamics in ecosystem and Earth system models. We investigated how plant functional traits vary among shrub genera, respond to environmental conditions, and affect belowground carbon and nutrient cycling by quantifying relationships among functional traits and biogeochemical cycling along edaphic gradients nested within a climate gradient in the Alaskan tundra. We found consistent differences in leaf and root traits among shrub genera and between shrubs and a widespread sedge species, indicating diverse nutrient acquisition strategies and belowground impacts among different arctic shrubs. We also found striking differences in trait values among individuals within the same species or genera within sites. Soil parameters were more important than climate parameters for predicting size and leaf trait variation, and root trait responses were less dependent on climate overall. For all but one root trait, including parameters representing aboveground traits improved the predictive ability of models. These results demonstrate that tundra shrub traits vary considerably at local scales and soil factors drive this variation, especially belowground. Furthermore, leveraging information about aboveground traits and soil conditions can improve predictions of how belowground traits will respond to climate change. Despite these differences, soil carbon and nitrogen pools in the active layer did not vary among plots dominated by different shrub or sedge genera. Instead, pool sizes generally decreased from warmer to colder sites, consistent with a productivity gradient. Patterns of isotopic N composition indicate that shrubs tighten nitrogen cycling via nitrogen resorption or immobilization of shrub litter. Overall, these results suggest that further identifying the specific shrub genera in the tundra landscape will ultimately provide better predictions of belowground dynamics across the changing arctic. We also performed simulation experiments with the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) incorporated in the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) framework, treats model parameters as probability distributions, estimates parameters based on a synthesis of available field data, and then quantifies both model sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter or suite of parameters. We performed simulations across different types of tundra, including shrub tundra. One key finding was that both model sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter could vary within the same type of tundra, but in a different geographical location, such as over the climate gradient of shrub tundra described above. We organized a special session at the annual meeting of the Ecological Society of America in August 2019 to disseminate our results, refine recommendations for model improvement, and initiate collaborations to implement these recommendations in existing models of tundra carbon dynamics at ecosystem to Earth system scales. Our results support DOE near-term priorities by providing mechanistic insights into the role of vegetation change in the terrestrial carbon cycle in a region that is inadequately represented in Earth system models. Current models reduce the complexity of Arctic vegetation to a small number of plant functional types (PFTs). This approach implicitly assumes that each PFT represents the average ecological function of its constituent species, thus ignoring the effects of trait variation on biogeochemical cycling and potentially leading to large uncertainty in the sign and magnitude of ecosystem feedbacks to climate. By quantifying variation of plant functional traits across broad gradients of climatic and edaphic conditions and elucidating the linkages of such variation with carbon and nutrient cycling, our results illustrate the need and create a foundation for further developing trait-based modeling approaches that allow the traits of PFTs to vary as a function of environmental conditions. These approaches should improve the capacity of simulation models to offer insights into ecosystem carbon dynamics associated with novel plant communities in a rapidly changing Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗