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At least 109 records · Page 6

Predicting and Mitigating Outbreaks of Vector-Borne Disease Utilizing Satellite Remote Sensing Technology and Models

Satellite earth observations present a unique vantage point of the earth's environment from space which offers a wealth of health applications for the imaginative investigator. The session will present research results of the remote sensing environmental observations of earth and health applications. This session will an overview of many of the NASA public health applications using Remote Sensing Data and will also discuss opportunities to become a research collaborator with NASA.

Estes, Sue↗

Spatial Analysis of West Nile Virus: Predictive Risk Modeling of a Vector-borne Infectious Disease in Illinois by Means of NASA Earth Observation Systems

West Nile Virus is a mosquito-borne virus of the family Flaviviridae. It infects birds and various mammals, including humans, and can cause encephalitis that may prove fatal, notably among vulnerable populations. Since its identification in New York City in 1999, WNV has become established in a broad range of ecological settings throughout North America, infecting more than 25,300 people and killing 1133 as of 2008 (CDC,2009). WNV is transmitted by mosquitoes that feed on infected birds. As a result, the degree of human infection depends on local ecology and human exposure. This study hypothesizes that remote sensing and GIS can be used to analyze environmental determinants of WNV transmission, such as climate, elevation, land cover, and vegetation densities, to map areas of WNV risk for surveillance and intervention.

Renneboog, Nathan↗

Ensemble Methodologies for Astronaut Cancer Risk Assessment in the face of Large Uncertainties

A new approach to NASA space radiation risk modeling has successfully extended the current NASA probabilistic cancer risk model to an ensemble framework able to consider sub-model parameter uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in a radiation quality parameter) as well as model-form uncertainty associated with differing theoretical or empirical formalisms (e.g. combined dose-rate and radiation quality effects). Ensemble methodologies are already widely used in weather prediction, modeling of infectious disease outbreaks, and certain terrestrial radiation protection applications to better understand how uncertainty may influence risk decision-making. Applying ensemble methodologies to space radiation risk projections offers the potential to efficiently incorporate emerging research results, allow for the incorporation of future (including international) models, improve uncertainty quantification for underlying sub-models developed against sparse experimental data, and reduce the impact of subjective bias on risk projections. Moreover, risk forecasting across an ensemble of multiple predictive models can provide stakeholders additional information on risk acceptance if current health/medical standards cannot be met or the level of knowledge doesn’t permit a specific risk or exposure limit to be developed for future space exploration missions. In this work, ensemble risk projections implementing multiple sub-models of radiation quality, dose and dose-rate effectiveness factors, excess risk, and latency as ensemble members are presented. Initial consensus methods for ensemble model weights and correlations to account for individual model bias are discussed. In these analyses, the ensemble forecast compares well to results from NASA's current operational cancer risk projection model used to assess permissible exposure limits and permissible mission durations for astronauts. However, a large range of projected risk values are obtained at the upper 95th confidence level where models must extrapolate beyond available biological data sets; closer agreement is seen at the median + one sigma due to the inherent similarities in available models. Future work, including the addition of new models and methods for statistical correlation between predictive members are discussed to define alternate ways of thinking about risk and ‘acceptable’ uncertainty with respect to NASA’s current permissible exposure limits.

space radiation↗

Ensemble Cancer Risk Model for Astronaut Risk Assessment

A new approach to NASA space radiation risk modeling has successfully extended the current NASA probabilistic cancer risk model to an ensemble framework able to consider sub-model parameter uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in a radiation quality parameter) as well as model-form uncertainty associated with differing theoretical or empirical formalisms (e.g. combined dose-rate and radiation quality effects). Ensemble methodologies are already widely used in weather prediction, modeling of infectious disease outbreaks, and certain terrestrial radiation protection applications to better understand how uncertainty may influence risk decision-making. Applying ensemble methodologies to space radiation risk projections offers the potential to efficiently incorporate emerging research results, allow for the incorporation of future (including international) models, improve uncertainty quantification for underlying sub-models developed against sparse experimental data, and reduce the impact of subjective bias on risk projections. Moreover, risk forecasting across an ensemble of multiple predictive models can provide stakeholders additional information on risk acceptance if current health/medical standards cannot be met or the level of knowledge doesn’t permit a specific risk or exposure limit to be developed for future space exploration missions. In this work, ensemble risk projections implementing multiple sub-models of radiation quality, dose and dose-rate effectiveness factors, excess risk, and latency as ensemble members are presented. Initial consensus methods for ensemble model weights and correlations to account for individual model bias are discussed. In these analyses, the ensemble forecast compares well to results from NASA's current operational cancer risk projection model used to assess permissible exposure limits and permissible mission durations for astronauts. However, a large range of projected risk values are obtained at the upper 95th confidence level where models must extrapolate beyond available biological data sets; closer agreement is seen at the median + one sigma due to the inherent similarities in available models. Future work, including the addition of new models and methods for statistical correlation between predictive members are discussed to define alternate ways of thinking about risk and ‘acceptable’ uncertainty with respect to NASA’s current permissible exposure limits.

Lisa C Simonsen↗

Remote Sensing, GIS, and Vector-Borne Disease

The concept of global climate change encompasses more than merely an alteration in temperature; it also includes spatial and temporal covariations in precipitation and humidity, and more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events. The impact of these variations, which can occur at a variety of temporal and spatial scales, could have a direct impact on disease transmission through their environmental consequences for pathogen, vector, and host survival, as well as indirectly through human demographic and behavioral responses. New and future sensor systems will allow scientists to investigate the relationships between climate change and environmental risk factors at multiple spatial, temporal and spectral scales. Higher spatial resolution will provide better opportunities for mapping urban features previously only possible with high resolution aerial photography. These opportunities include housing quality (e.g., Chagas'disease, leishmaniasis) and urban mosquito habitats (e.g., dengue fever, filariasis, LaCrosse encephalitis). There are or will be many new sensors that have higher spectral resolution, enabling scientists to acquire more information about parameters such as soil moisture, soil type, better vegetation discrimination, and ocean color, to name a few. Although soil moisture content is now detectable using Landsat, the new thermal, shortwave infrared, and radar sensors will be able to provide this information at a variety of scales not achievable using Landsat. Soil moisture could become a key component in transmission risk models for Lyme disease (tick survival), helminthiases (worm habitat), malaria (vector-breeding habitat), and schistosomiasis (snail habitat).

Beck, Louisa R.↗

Sensitivity Analysis of Median Lifetime on Radiation Risks Estimates for Cancer and Circulatory Disease amongst Never-Smokers

Radiation risks are estimated in a competing risk formalism where age or time after exposure estimates of increased risks for cancer and circulatory diseases are folded with a probability to survive to a given age. The survival function, also called the life-table, changes with calendar year, gender, smoking status and other demographic variables. An outstanding problem in risk estimation is the method of risk transfer between exposed populations and a second population where risks are to be estimated. Approaches used to transfer risks are based on: 1) Multiplicative risk transfer models -proportional to background disease rates. 2) Additive risk transfer model -risks independent of background rates. In addition, a Mixture model is often considered where the multiplicative and additive transfer assumptions are given weighted contributions. We studied the influence of the survival probability on the risk of exposure induced cancer and circulatory disease morbidity and mortality in the Multiplicative transfer model and the Mixture model. Risks for never-smokers (NS) compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for NS, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity, esophagus, colon, a portion of the solid cancer remainder, and leukemia. Greater improvements in risk estimates for NS s are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

Chappell, Lori J.↗

MAPS of Cancer

Our goal was to produce an interactive visualization from a mathematical model that successfully predicts metastases from head and neck cancer. We met this goal early in the project. The visualization is available for the public to view. Our work appears to fill a need for more information about this deadly disease. The idea of this project was to make an easily interpretable visualization based on what we call "functional maps" of disease. A functional map is a graphic summary of medical data, where distances between parts of the body are determined by the probability of disease, not by anatomical distances. Functional maps often beat little resemblance to anatomical maps, but they can be used to predict the spread of disease. The idea of modeling the spread of disease in an abstract multidimensional space is difficult for many people. Our goal was to make the important predictions easy to see. NASA must face this problem frequently: how to help laypersons and professionals see important trends in abstract, complex data. We took advantage of concepts perfected in NASA's graphics libraries. As an analogy, consider a functional map of early America. Suppose we choose travel times, rather than miles, as our measures of inter-city distances. For Abraham Lincoln, travel times would have been the more meaningful measure of separation between cities. In such a map New Orleans would be close to Memphis because of the Mississippi River. St. Louis would be close to Portland because of the Oregon Trail. Oklahoma City would be far from Little Rock because of the Cheyenne. Such a map would look puzzling to those of us who have always seen physical maps, but the functional map would be more useful in predicting the probabilities of inter-site transit. Continuing the analogy, we could predict the spread of social diseases such as gambling along the rivers and cattle rustling along the trails. We could simply print the functional map of America, but it would be more interesting to show meaningful patterns of dispersal. We had previously published the functional map of the head and neck, but it was difficult to explain to either patients or surgeons because that view of our body did not resemble anatomy. This discrepancy between functional and physical maps is just a mathematical restatement of the well-known fact that some diseases, such as head and neck cancer, spread in complex patterns, not always to the next nearest site. We had discovered that a computer could re-arrange anatomy so that this particular disease spreads to the next nearest site. The functional map explains over 95% of the metastases in 1400 patients. In a sense, we had graphed what our body "looks like" to a tumor. The tumor readily travels between adjacent areas in the functional map. The functional map is a succinct visual display of trends that are not easily appreciated in tables of probabilities.

Gray, Lincoln↗

Autonomous support for microorganism research in space

A preliminary design for performing on orbit, autonomous research on microorganisms and cultured cells/tissues is presented. An understanding of gravity and its effects on cells is crucial for space exploration as well as for terrestrial applications. The payload is designed to be compatible with the Commercial Experiment Transporter (COMET) launch vehicle, an orbiter middeck locker interface, and with Space Station Freedom. Uplink/downlink capabilities and sample return through controlled reentry are available for all carriers. Autonomous testing activities are preprogrammed with in-flight reprogrammability. Sensors for monitoring temperature, pH, light, gravity levels, vibrations, and radiation are provided for environmental regulation and experimental data collection. Additional experimental data acquisition includes optical density measurement, microscopy, video, and film photography. On-board full data storage capabilities are provided. A fluid transfer mechanism is utilized for inoculation, sampling, and nutrient replenishment of experiment cultures. In addition to payload design, representative experiments were developed to ensure scientific objectives remained compatible with hardware capabilities. The project is defined to provide biological data pertinent to extended duration crewed space flight including crew health issues and development of a Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS). In addition, opportunities are opened for investigations leading to commercial applications of space, such as pharmaceutical development, modeling of terrestrial diseases, and material processing.

Fleet, Mary L.↗

Autonomous support for microorganism research in space

A preliminary design for performing on-orbit, autonomous research on microorganisms and cultured cells/tissues is presented. An understanding of gravity and its effects on cells is crucial for space exploration as well as for terrestrial applications. The payload is designed to be compatible with the COMmercial Experiment Transported (COMET) launch vehicle, an orbiter middeck locker interface, and with Space Station Freedom. Uplink/downlink capabilities and sample return through controlled reentry are available for all carriers. Autonomous testing activities are preprogrammed with inflight reprogrammability. Sensors for monitoring temperature, pH, light, gravity levels, vibration, and radiation are provided for environmental regulation and experimental data collection. Additional experiment data acquisition includes optical density measurement, microscopy, video, and file photography. Onboard full data storage capabilities are provided. A fluid transfer mechanism is utilized for inoculation, sampling, and nutrient replenishment of experiment cultures. In addition to payload design, representative experiments were developed to ensure scientific objectives remained compatible with hardware capabilities. The project is defined to provide biological data pertinent to extended duration crewed space flight including crew health issues and development of a Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS). In addition, opportunities are opened for investigations leading to commercial applications of space, such as pharmaceutical development, modeling of terrestrial diseases, and material processing.

Luttges, M. W.↗

Assimilation of SMOS Retrieved Soil Moisture into the Land Information System

Soil moisture is a crucial variable for weather prediction because of its influence on evaporation and surface heat fluxes. It is also of critical importance for drought and flood monitoring and prediction and for public health applications such as monitoring vector-borne diseases. Land surface modeling benefits greatly from regular updates with soil moisture observations via data assimilation. Satellite remote sensing is the only practical observation type for this purpose in most areas due to its worldwide coverage. The newest operational satellite sensor for soil moisture is the Microwave Imaging Radiometer using Aperture Synthesis (MIRAS) instrument aboard the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) has implemented the assimilation of SMOS soil moisture observations into the NASA Land Information System (LIS), an integrated modeling and data assimilation software platform. We present results from assimilating SMOS observations into the Noah 3.2 land surface model within LIS. The SMOS MIRAS is an L-band radiometer launched by the European Space Agency in 2009, from which we assimilate Level 2 retrievals [1] into LIS-Noah. The measurements are sensitive to soil moisture concentration in roughly the top 2.5 cm of soil. The retrievals have a target volumetric accuracy of 4% at a resolution of 35-50 km. Sensitivity is reduced where precipitation, snowcover, frozen soil, or dense vegetation is present. Due to the satellite's polar orbit, the instrument achieves global coverage twice daily at most mid- and low-latitude locations, with only small gaps between swaths.

Blankenship, Clay B.↗

Scraping Unstructured Data to Explore the Relationship between Rainfall Anomalies and Vector-Borne Disease Outbreaks

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue account for 17% of all infectious disease cases and lead to more than 700,000 deaths per year. Tracking and predicting the spread of vector-borne diseases is a vital task that could save hundreds of thousands of lives annually. Oftentimes, the first reports of vector-borne disease outbreaks occur through emails and online reporting systems long before they are officially documented. Tracking and predicting the emergence and spread of vector-borne disease outbreaks requires extracting data from these unstructured sources in combination with historical weather and climate data to understand the underlying background triggers and disease dynamics. In this work, we develop a data extraction pipeline for the online outbreak reporting website ProMED-mail that utilizes a web scraper, transformer neural network summarizer, and named entity recognizer to obtain a dataset of malaria, dengue, zika, and chikungunya outbreaks over the last 30 years. This scraped dataset was further analyzed in association with global rainfall anomalies derived from NASA’s Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM [Global Precipitation Mission] (IMERG) dataset. This preliminary analysis was to understand the effect of global rainfall patterns on the spread of vector-borne diseases. Analysis of the ProMED-mail and GPM data shows that vector-borne disease outbreaks are clustered towards the tropics and outbreaks are often amplified during the rainy seasons. Our scraped dataset can be a valuable tool in creating comprehensive georeferenced disease records for modeling and predicting future outbreaks.

Web scraping↗

Stimulated single fiber electromyography in the mouse: techniques and normative data

As the number of new transgenic mouse models of human neuromuscular disease continues to increase, the development of sophisticated electrophysiologic techniques for assessing the peripheral nervous system in these models has become important. Neuromuscular junction (NMJ) dysfunction, in particular, is often not detectable by morphologic or other techniques. To enable sensitive testing of murine NMJ function, we developed and tested a method for stimulated single fiber electromyography (S-SFEMG) in the gastrocnemius muscles of anesthetized mice. Jitter was assessed by measuring the mean consecutive latency difference (MCD) of single fiber responses to sciatic nerve stimulation at 2 HZ. Mean MCD values in normothermic mice were in the range of 6-8 micros for different strains, with no MCD values exceeding 25 micros. Reduced core temperature (to 29 degrees--30 degrees C) resulted in increased jitter, whereas intubation and mechanical ventilation of mice did not alter these values. Intraperitoneal and intravenous injection of vecuronium, however, resulted in progressively increased jitter followed by blocking in continuously monitored fibers. These observations validate the utility of S-SFEMG in mice as an index of NMJ function under a variety of physiologic conditions, and suggest that a high safety factor for neuromuscular transmission exists at mouse NMJs. Copyright 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Non-NASA Center↗

Variations in Modeled Dengue Transmission over Puerto Rico Using a Climate Driven Dynamic Model

Dengue fever is a mosquito‐borne viral disease reemerging throughout much of the tropical Americas. Dengue virus transmission is explicitly influenced by climate and the environment through its primary vector, Aedes aegypti. Temperature regulates Ae. aegypti development, survival, and replication rates as well as the incubation period of the virus within the mosquito. Precipitation provides water for many of the preferred breeding habitats of the mosquito, including buckets, old tires, and other places water can collect. Because of variations in topography, ocean influences and atmospheric processes, temperature and rainfall patterns vary across Puerto Rico and so do dengue virus transmission rates. Using NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite for precipitation input, ground‐based observations for temperature input, and laboratory confirmed dengue cases reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for parameter calibration, we modeled dengue transmission at the county level across Puerto Rico from 2010‐2013 using a dynamic dengue transmission model that includes interacting vector ecology and epidemiological components. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we performed ensembles of several thousands of model simulations for each county in order to resolve the model uncertainty arising from using different combinations of parameter values that are not well known. The top 1% of model simulations that best reproduced the reported dengue case data were then analyzed to determine the most important parameters for dengue virus transmission in each county, as well as the relative influence of climate variability on transmission. These results can be used by public health workers to implement dengue control methods that are targeted for specific locations and climate conditions.

Morin, Cory↗

Studies on disease transmission in spacecraft environments

The effects of the Skylab gas mixtures on general health and immunocompetence of mice and ferrets subjected to the Skylab space cabin environment (SCE) were initially studied in a stainless steel low pressure facility which was maintained at gas ratios of 30% nitrogen and 70% oxygen under 5 psia, and which consisted of two subchambers, that permitted mutual isolation of experimental groups and/or selective removal of animals without return of the entire cabin to ambient pressure was developed. The studies demonstrated that ferrets immunized with Brucella Strain 19 prior to being housed in SCE had decreased synthesis of IgG compared to their respective controls. The possibility of latent infections being responsible for stress-induced upper respiratory diseases of astronauts required that the role of neutralizing antibody as a function of antibody affinity/avidity be investigated. The model consisted of Aleutian disease virus (ADV) which infects ferrets and mink resulting in nonneutralized immune complexes. These studies demonstrated that early antibody to ADV had lower affinity/avidity than late antibody with respect to chronicity. These studies culminated in a description of antibody affinity, first isolation of ADV and its cultivation in vitro.

Kenyon, A. J.↗

Climate Predicts Geographic and Temporal Variation in Mosquito-Borne Disease Dynamics on Two Continents

Climate drives population dynamics through multiple mechanisms, which can lead to seemingly context-dependent effects of climate on natural populations. For climate-sensitive diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, climate appears to have opposing effects in different contexts. Here we show that a model, parameterized with laboratory measured climate-driven mosquito physiology, captures three key epidemic characteristics across ecologically and culturally distinct settings in Ecuador and Kenya: the number, timing, and duration of outbreaks. The model generates a range of disease dynamics consistent with observed Aedes aegypti abundances and laboratory-confirmed arboviral incidence with variable accuracy (28–85% for vectors, 44–88%for incidence). The model predicted vector dynamics better in sites with a smaller proportion of young children in the population, lower mean temperature, and homes with piped water and made of cement. Models with limited calibration that robustly capture climate-virus relationships can help guide intervention efforts and climate change disease projections.

Climate-change ecology↗

Metabolic Stress in Space: ROS-Induced Mutations in Mice Hint at A New Path to Cancer

Long-duration spaceflight beyond Earth's magnetosphere poses serious health risks, including muscle atrophy, bone loss, liver and kidney damage, and the Spaceflight-Associated Neuro-ocular Syndrome (SANS). RNA-seq of mice aboard the International Space Station (ISS) for 37 days revealed extraordinary hypermutation in tissue-specific genes, with guanine base conversion predominating, potentially contributing to spaceflight-associated health risks. Our results suggest that the genome-wide accelerated mutation that we measured, seemingly independent of radiation dose, was induced by oxidative damage from higher atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) levels and increased reactive oxygen species (ROS) on the ISS. This accelerated mutation, faster via RNA transcription than replication and more numerous than by radiation alone, unveils novel hotspots in the mammalian proteome. Notably, these hotspots correlate with commonly mutated genes across various human cancers, highlighting the ISS as a crucial platform for studying accelerated mutation, genome instability, and the induction of disease-causing mutations in model organisms. Our results suggest that metabolic processes can contribute to somatic mutation, and thus may play a role in the development of cancer. A metabolic link to genetic instability potentially has far-reaching implications for various diseases, with implications for human health on Earth and in space.

mice↗