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Sensor enabled data-driven predictive analytics for modeling and control with high penetration of DERs in distribution systems
The electric power grid is undergoing a tremendous transformation due to the increasing penetration of renewable energy resources beginning with wind and more recently with the distributed energy resources (DERs) such as solar and battery storage. DERs have dramatically changed the role of the distribution systems in the overall power grid, and they are expected to contribute a significant portion of power generation in the future. If current trends for DERs continue, system operation and control will need to change dramatically for improved grid reliability and resiliency. As renewable resources increase in penetration, new and challenging operational, planning, and design problems are expected to emerge. Some of the key challenges that arise in the planning and operation of the future grid are: 1) Quantifying the impact of high DER penetration in distribution systems on bulk grid behavior over multiple time scales. 2) Identifying whether a particular DER configuration/settings have a large impact on the overall grid behavior. These challenges can be addressed in an offline manner using detailed T&D grid models and they can also be addressed in an online manner using sensor measurements. In particular, the advancement and planned growth in sensor technology in power grid over various voltage levels provide us with a unique opportunity to tackle these challenges from a data analytic perspective without needing detailed T&D grid models. A few questions that naturally arise when addressing the challenges from DERs using sensor data are: 1) How can we use limited sensor measurements to monitor & control voltage stability and small signal stability of the bulk system? 2) How can we ensure that the developed data analytic methods are robust to data availability and quality issues? 3) How can we compute the developed analytics in a scalable manner using streaming measurements? In this project, we addressed the aforementioned challenges arising from DERs and answered the questions raised above on how to effectively use the sensor measurements to enhance the reliability and performance of the electric grid. Thus, the overarching goal of this project is to develop effective reduced/representative system models from data that make the computational complexity sufficiently manageable so as to be useful to simulate, analyze, and even control complex non-linear power systems dynamics with large penetrations of DERs. In order to achieve the objective, the project team established a four-fold technical approach 1) Formulated a combined transmission-distribution co-simulation framework for data generation and validation, 2) Derived reduced/representative models of power systems based on data-driven methods for efficient computation and appropriate representation of system behavior, 3) Developed data driven characterization of power system behavior based on transfer operator theory, machine learning and optimization for model estimation, 4) Incorporated a scalable data management and processing architecture using distributed Kafka streaming applications that coordinate input data streams to the developed data analytics. The key accomplishments of the project are: 1) Development of a scalable multi-timescale T&D co-simulation framework (both for steady state and for dynamic co-simulation) using commercial solvers (PSSE and GridLAB-D). The steady-state T&D co-simulation interface is shared with our industry partner (PJM). 2) A structured reduced order dynamic model of distribution systems that can represent partial motor stalling along with a systematic procedure to derive the model parameters. 3) A PMU based online method to monitor, localize and mitigate fault-induced delayed voltage recovery using DER reactive support and load control in distribution systems. 4) Development of linear operator based robust methodologies for dynamic state estimation, uncertainty quantification, system identification and trajectory prediction for power system dynamics. 5) An adaptive damping control for utilizing wind energy resources to provide oscillation damping and system stability. 6) Implementation of Kafka-based framework for efficient processing of streaming data using Linux-based local virtual environment.
Modeling Distributed Generation in California
In support of analysis for the biennial Integrated Energy Policy Report, the California Energy Commission and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory have partnered to study the growth of distributed energy resources in California. This study involves the use of National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Distributed Generation Market Demand model, available at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/dgen/, to project statewide adoption of distributed photovoltaics and paired storage. Key outcomes of the collaboration include: • Improved representation of California building stock, load profiles, historical adoption, and tariffs, including the net billing tariff, in the dGen model; • Trained CEC staff members to use and adapt the dGen model for their specific needs; • Developed a methodology for representing emerging consumer segments to potentially adopt distributed energy resources, including low-income, multifamily, and renter-occupied buildings; • Forecasted solar photovoltaic and paired storage growth in California using a common set of modeling parameters. This report describes the multiyear effort, which includes a discussion of: • Methodology and data employed in adapting the Distributed Generation Market Demand model for California to forecast solar photovoltaic and storage statewide through 2040; • Steps taken to modify the base model to forecast solar photovoltaic adoption in emerging market segments such as multifamily or renter-occupied homes or both; • Future enhancements of the model.
An IEEE 1451.1 Architecture for ISHM Applications
The IEEE 1451.1 Standard for a Smart Transducer Interface defines a common network information model for connecting and managing smart elements in control and data acquisition networks using network-capable application processors (NCAPs). The Standard is a network-neutral design model that is easily ported across operating systems and physical networks for implementing complex acquisition and control applications by simply plugging in the appropriate network level drivers. To simplify configuration and tracking of transducer and actuator details, the family of 1451 standards defines a Transducer Electronic Data Sheet (TEDS) that is associated with each physical element. The TEDS contains all of the pertinent information about the physical operations of a transducer (such as operating regions, calibration tables, and manufacturer information), which the NCAP uses to configure the system to support a specific transducer. The Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) group at NASA's John C. Stennis Space Center (SSC) has been developing an ISHM architecture that utilizes IEEE 1451.1 as the primary configuration and data acquisition mechanism for managing and collecting information from a network of distributed intelligent sensing elements. This work has involved collaboration with other NASA centers, universities and aerospace industries to develop IEEE 1451.1 compliant sensors and interfaces tailored to support health assessment of complex systems. This paper and presentation describe the development and implementation of an interface for the configuration, management and communication of data, information and knowledge generated by a distributed system of IEEE 1451.1 intelligent elements monitoring a rocket engine test system. In this context, an intelligent element is defined as one incorporating support for the IEEE 1451.x standards and additional ISHM functions. Our implementation supports real-time collection of both measurement data (raw ADC counts and converted engineering units) and health statistics produced by each intelligent element. The handling of configuration, calibration and health information is automated by using the TEDS in combination with other electronic data sheets extensions to convey health parameters. By integrating the IEEE 1451.1 Standard for a Smart Transducer Interface with ISHM technologies, each element within a complex system becomes a highly flexible computation engine capable of self-validation and performing other measures of the quality of information it is producing.
Generating realistic building electrical load profiles through the Generative Adversarial Network (GAN)
Building electrical load profiles can improve understanding of building energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and building-grid interactions. Current approaches to generating load profiles are time-consuming and not capable of reflecting the dynamic and stochastic behaviors of real buildings; some approaches also trigger data privacy concerns. In this study, we proposed a novel approach for generating realistic electrical load profiles of buildings through the Generative Adversarial Network (GAN), a machine learning technique that is capable of revealing an unknown probability distribution purely from data. The proposed approach has three main steps: (1) normalizing the daily 24-hour load profiles, (2) clustering the daily load profiles with the k-means algorithm, and (3) using GAN to generate daily load profiles for each cluster. The approach was tested with an open-source database – the Building Data Genome Project. We validated the proposed method by comparing the mean, standard deviation, and distribution of key parameters of the generated load profiles with those of the real ones. The KL divergence of the generated and real load profiles are within 0.3 for majority of parameters and clusters. Additionally, results showed the load profiles generated by GAN can capture not only the general trend but also the random variations of the actual electrical loads in buildings. We report the proposed GAN approach can be used to generate building electrical load profiles, verify other load profile generation models, detect changes to load profiles, and more importantly, anonymize smart meter data for sharing, to support research and applications of grid-interactive efficient buildings.
A Novel Technique for Distributed Measuring of Strain in the Vadose Zone
Characterizing water content and pressure changes in the vadose zone is important to understanding a variety of geologic processes, ranging from permeability, to evapotranspiration, and aquifer recharge. Changes in water content, or pressure, cause strain in the solid porous medium of the vadose zone, and it is possible that measuring those strains could be used a characterization tool. The Coherence-length-gated Microwave Photonics Interferometry (CMPI) technique measures strain at high resolution along many intervals defined by pairs of reflectors distributed along an optical fiber. This technique has recently been developed at Clemson University, and it has the spatial, and temporal resolution to characterize the strains that are expected to occur with hydrologic changes in the vadose zone. However, the technique has never been used to measure strain in porous media, so its capabilities remain uncertain. The objective of this thesis is to evaluate the ability of using CMPI to measure strain changes in the vadose zone. The research approach consists of conducting laboratory tests using a column filled with sand that was subjected to changes in water content and pressure. An optical fiber with CMPI reflectors was deployed in a high surface area ribbon and used to measure strain along the axis of the column. The column was made from 8-inch, Schedule 40 PVC pipe (75 cm tall, 20 cm inner diameter) and filled with medium-grained sand (K = 2.5x10-6 m/s, porosity = 0.28, Coefficient of Uniformity = 2, van Genuchten (n = 4.34 and = 0.00039 m-1), Young’s Modulus = 18 – 47 MPa). Five pressure and four temperature sensors attached to probes inserted into the wall. The optical fiber includes five reflectors spaced 10 cm apart on the inside and outside of the column along the vertical axis. Strain measurements are made between pairs of reflectors. The reflectors are created in 250-micron-diameter acrylate-coated single mode Corning SMF28e+ optical fiber using a femtosecond laser. The optical fiber was laminated between two pieces of polyester film creating a large surface area to transfer strain from the porous media to the optical fiber. The experiments were conducted by filling the column from the bottom or infiltrating water from the top. The water was allowed to equilibrate to room temperature prior to each test in order to limit thermoelastic strain. Five injection tests with a rate of 250 ml/min and three infiltration tests at varying rates were conducted, and the results show patterns of strain and pressure are generally similar. Hydrologic conditions define three zones based on the pressure magnitude and distribution. 1.) Ambient Zone where the pressure heads are quasi-static and the pressure gradient is roughly unity (head gradient of zero). This is the uppermost zone and is characterized by negative pressures. 2.) Transition Zone where the pressures increase from ambient to zero, are changing relatively rapidly and the pressure gradient is relatively steep (pressure head gradients of 2). The Transition zone is 10 to 15 cm thick. 3.) Positive Pressure Zone where the pressure is positive, the rate of change is slower than in the transition zone and the gradient is flatter (pressure head gradient 1.1 to 1.2). This is the lowest zone in the column. Injection of water causes the pressure to increase and the three zones to move upward. The Transition zone moves at a rate of approximately 0.0002 m/s +/- .00005, according to analyses of pressure profiles. This is the same as the average velocity of the water calculated as volumetric flux/effective porosity =5.4x10-5 m/s/0.28. Strain signals in the range of 10s were observed with a noise level of generally less than 0.1 (signal to noise ratio of greater than 100) during injection and drainage. The spatial and temporal distributions of strain caused by injection depend on the location of the moving pressure zones. The locations of the different pressure zones were determined from pressure profiles at different times and these data were transferred to strain time series. This showed that strain in the Ambient pressure zone is either unchanged or slightly compressive, whereas strain in Transition zone is tensile and roughly proportional to the pressure change, and strain ranges from tensile to compressive in the Positive Pressure zone. In general, the strain is variable at the top of the Positive Pressure zone, but it appears to be consistently tensile lower in the zone. The spatial distribution of strain causes three distinct stages in the strain times series measured between pairs of CMPI reflectors. The strain is unchanged or slightly compressive during Stage 1, it increases (positive strain is tensile) approximately linearly at a rate of 0.02 to 0.03 μ/s during the Stage 2, and then flattens out in Stage 3. The strain increases again during Stage 4 of the time series. The pressure also changes in stages. It is unchanged during Stage 1 and then increases relatively rapidly at a rate of between 4 and 10 Pa/s during Stage 2 and continues to increase during Stages 3 and 4, but at a rate slightly slower than during Stage 2 (from 2.5 to 3.5 Pa/s). The rates of pressure and strain change are consistent with basic analyses. The rate of pressurization is similar to the calculated velocity of flow in the saturated zone, and this is similar to the measured velocity of the strain increase. The ratio of the pressurization rate and strain rate during Stage 2 (2.5 (Pa/s) /0.03 (μ/s)) is 80 MPa, which is approximately equal to the upper range expected considering the uniaxial compression and the Young’s Modulus of the sand. An interesting effect occurs when the upper surface of the sand becomes saturated. Significant compression (several 10s of ) occurs as the pressure and saturation increase at the upper surface. Compression occurs throughout the column, but the effect is greatest at the top of the column. The rate of compression is fastest slightly before ponding occurs, but it slows markedly and nearly stops when water starts to accumulate at the surface (ponding). This effect reverses when the surface of the sand is drained, resulting in tension throughout the column. The compression caused by this effect can be as large or larger than the tensile strain that accumulated during filling. This effect was unexpected because increasing pressure is normally associated with tensile strain. Nevertheless, this effect was observed consistently in all tests where the pressure changes at the upper surface, including tests where water was injected from below or infiltrated from above. This effect behaves as if the pore pressure at the upper surface of the sand exerts a normal force on the boundary (increasing pore pressure exerts a downward compression on the boundary). The results of these laboratory experiments indicate that CMPI can measure strain caused by fluid pressure changes in the vadose zone with a signal to noise ratio of 100 or more. Injection and drainage cause a strain signal that is complex, but repeatable. The magnitudes of the strain signal are consistent with magnitudes that are expected based on poroelastic calculations using independently measured properties of the sand. These results indicate that the CMPI technique with an optical fiber laminated in a polyester ribbon generates data that represent the strain distribution during hydrologic processes of imbibition and drainage in variably saturated sand. This suggests that distributed strain measurements using CMPI could be a viable approach for evaluating processes in the vadose zone, laying the groundwork for future field implementation.
In situ multi-tier auto-ignition detection applied to dual-fuel combustion simulations
Here we use an anomaly detection methodology that is centered on analyzing fourth-order joint moments (co-kurtosis), particularly focusing on its application in auto-ignition of combustion problems with large numbers of species. Unsupervised anomaly detection is challenging to generalize across problem types and domains. A recent technique, centered on analyzing information in the fourth-order joint moment co-kurtosis, has shown promise, especially for high-dimensional scientific data. In this work we present developments to the co-kurtosis based anomaly detection method needed to make it effective and scalable for large-scale distributed scientific data, such as those generated by massively parallel simulations. An in situ co-kurtosis algorithm is employed as the anomaly detection method for identifying ignition kernels in simulations of turbulent combustion. Here, we extend an existing methodology which identifies regions of the domain where anomalies are present, and add another tier of anomaly detection where the individual samples contributing to the anomaly are identified. We apply this algorithm on-the-fly to a variety of turbulent reacting flow problems and compare it to the widely used (but significantly more expensive) chemical explosive mode analysis (CEMA). We demonstrate the ability of the method to detect and identify the onset of low and high temperature ignition which can be used for computational steering, as chemical and combustion anomalies occur intermittently at spatio-temporal locations unknown a priori. Finally, we apply our lightweight in situ algorithm to an exascale high-fidelity simulation with a total of 2.4 Trillion degrees of freedom, performed using an adaptive mesh refinement solver. Furthermore, through a scalability analysis, we show that the relative computational cost of this in-situ anomaly detection algorithm compared to an iteration of the reacting flow solver is negligible.
Electricity Baseline 2022
The Electricity Baseline (2022) is a regionalized life cycle inventory model of U.S. electricity generation, consumption, and distribution using standardized facility and generation data and was created using the ElectricityLCI v2 Python package (https://github.com/USEPA/ElectricityLCI/tree/v2.0). The Python package used the "ELCI_2022" model configuration to set the facility and generation data sources and years that were used to create this life cycle inventory, which were taken from publicly accessible datasets and automatically curated into a local data store. An archive of the data stores used in this model is available online: https://doi.org/10.18141/2569193. This model is presented in GreenDelta's openLCA schema v2 JSON-LD format (https://greendelta.github.io/olca-schema/).
Electricity Baseline 2021
The Electricity Baseline (2021) is a regionalized life cycle inventory model of U.S. electricity generation, consumption, and distribution using standardized facility and generation data and was created using the ElectricityLCI v2 Python package (https://github.com/USEPA/ElectricityLCI/tree/v2.0). The Python package used the "ELCI_2021" model configuration to set the facility and generation data sources and years that were used to create this life cycle inventory, which were taken from publicly accessible datasets and automatically curated into a local data store. An archive of the data stores used in this model is available online: https://doi.org/10.18141/2569576. This model is presented in GreenDelta's openLCA schema v2 JSON-LD format (https://greendelta.github.io/olca-schema/).
Electricity Baseline 2020
The Electricity Baseline (2020) is a regionalized life cycle inventory model of U.S. electricity generation, consumption, and distribution using standardized facility and generation data and was created using the ElectricityLCI v2 Python package (https://github.com/USEPA/ElectricityLCI/tree/v2.0). The Python package used the "ELCI_2020" model configuration to set the facility and generation data sources and years that were used to create this life cycle inventory, which were taken from publicly accessible datasets and automatically curated into a local data store. An archive of the data stores used in this model is available online: https://doi.org/10.18141/2569605. This model is presented in GreenDelta's openLCA schema v2 JSON-LD format (https://greendelta.github.io/olca-schema/).
ElectricityLCI
The ElectricityLCI is a Python package for creating regionalized life cycle inventory models of U.S. electricity generation, consumption, and distribution using standardized facility and generation data for use with open-source LCA software.
Uniform Beam Simulation Technique for Beam Scans and Machine Learning Studies at Fermilab
Fermilab's neutrino facilities, including NuMI and the upcoming LBNF, use proton beams to produce positively and negatively charged pions and kaons. Detailed simulations are necessary to study particle interactions and beam propagation. To efficiently analyze beam scan effects, we propose a technique to generate multiple simulation samples with high statistics. These samples can be used to develop beamline simulation based machine learning applications. In this technique, we generate a uniformly distributed single simulation data sample. We calculate Gaussian weights for each beam configurations and apply them to post-processing measurements. In this poster, we demonstrate the proposed simulation technique. This technique reduces simulation time and computing resources significantly.
Accelerated Assessment of Critical Infrastructure in Aiding Recovery Efforts During Natural and Human-made Disaster
Relief and recovery from disasters (both natural and human-made) require a coordinated approach across several federal and state government agencies. In order to achieve optimal resource allocation and deployment of first responders, accurate and timely assessment of the impact and extent of destruction are the cornerstones to any recovery effort. Ideally, this knowledge should be gathered and shared within the first 0-24 hours (termed as "Acute Phase" by the U.S. CDC guideline) for informed decision-making. But achieving this poses significant challenges for the data collection and data harmonization processes, particularly when voluminous data are being generated from diverse and distributed sources during the disaster responses. To this end, this work developed a scalable and efficient workflow to dynamically collect and harmonize crowd-sourced geographic multi-modal data, and then assess critical infrastructure (CI) damaged during disaster events. We demonstrate the application of our framework with two real-world experiences in addressing post-disaster recovery efforts - for the Bahamas (Natural - due to Hurricane Dorian, 2019) and Beirut (Human-made - due to explosion caused by the ammonium nitrate stored in a warehouse, 2020). We have illustrated that a coordinated effort is needed for planning as well as for execution to achieve informed decision making.
Three Generations of Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) Spacecraft
The current Tracking and Data Relay Satellite configuration consists of nine in-orbit satellites (four first generation, three second generation and two third generation satellites) globally distributed in geosynchronous orbit to provide near continuous data relay service to missions like Hubble Space Telescope and the International Space Station. The 1st generation spacecraft were designed by TRW/Northrop Grumman with their launches of the five spacecraft ranging from 1983 through 1995. The 2nd and 3rd generation spacecraft were designed by Boeing with their launches ranging 2000 - 2002 and 2013 - 2017 respectively. TDRS-3 is now 27 years on orbit, continues to be a capable asset for the TDRS constellation. Lack of need for inclination control combined with large fuel reserves and redundancy on critical elements provides spacecraft that operate well past design life, all of which contributes to expanded TDRS constellation support capabilities. All spacecraft generations have issues. Significant issues will be summarized with the focus on the Boeing related problems. Degradations and failures are continually assessed and provide the foundation for yearly updates to spacecraft reliability models, constellation service projections and deorbit plans (in order to meet NASAs mandate of limiting orbital debris). Even when accounting for degradations and failures, the life expectancy for the Boeing delivered 2nd generation TDRS-8, 9 10 TDRS are anticipated to be 25+ years.
Long–short-term memory encoder–decoder with regularized hidden dynamics for fault detection in industrial processes
The ability of recurrent neural networks (RNN) to model nonlinear dynamics of high dimensional process data has enabled data-driven RNN-based fault detection algorithms. Previous studies have focused on detecting faults by identifying the discrepancies in data distribution between the faulty and normal data, as reflected in prediction errors generated by RNN models. However, in industrial processes, variations in data distribution can also result from changes in normal control setpoints and compensatory control adjustments in response to disturbances, making it hard to differentiate between normal and faulty conditions. This paper proposes a fault detection method utilizing a long short-term memory (LSTM) encoder–decoder structure with regularized hidden dynamics and reversible instance normalization (RevIN) to compactly represent high-dimensional measurements for effective monitoring. During training, the hidden states of the model are regularized to form a low-dimensional latent space representation of the original multivariate time series data. As a result, the prediction errors of the latent states can be used to monitor the abnormal dynamic variations, while the reconstruction errors of the measured variables are used to monitor the abnormal static variations. Furthermore, the proposed indices can reflect operating conditions, even when the distribution of test data changes, which helps distinguish faults from normal adjustments and disturbances that controllers can settle. Here, data from numerical simulation and the Tennessee Eastman process are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed fault detection method.
Automatic generation of efficient array redistribution routines for distributed memory multicomputers
Appropriate data distribution has been found to be critical for obtaining good performance on Distributed Memory Multicomputers like the CM-5, Intel Paragon and IBM SP-1. It has also been found that some programs need to change their distributions during execution for better performance (redistribution). This work focuses on automatically generating efficient routines for redistribution. We present a new mathematical representation for regular distributions called PITFALLS and then discuss algorithms for redistribution based on this representation. One of the significant contributions of this work is being able to handle arbitrary source and target processor sets while performing redistribution. Another important contribution is the ability to handle an arbitrary number of dimensions for the array involved in the redistribution in a scalable manner. Our implementation of these techniques is based on an MPI-like communication library. The results presented show the low overheads for our redistribution algorithm as compared to naive runtime methods.
Resource selection functions based on hierarchical generalized additive models provide new insights into individual animal variation and species distributions
Habitat selection studies are designed to generate predictions of species distributions or inference regarding general habitat associations and individual variation in habitat use. Such studies frequently involve either individually indexed locations gathered across limited spatial extents and analyzed using resource selection functions (RSFs) or spatially extensive locational data without individual resolution typically analyzed using species distribution models. Both analytical methodologies have certain desirable features, but analyses that combine individual- and population-level inference with flexible non-linear functions may provide improved predictions while accounting for individual variation. Here, we describe how RSFs can be fit using hierarchical generalized additive models (HGAMs) using widely available software, providing a means to explore individual variation in habitat associations and to generate species distribution maps. We used GPS tracking data from golden eagles Aquila chrysaetos from across eastern North America with four environmental predictors to generate monthly distribution models. We considered three model structures that assumed different amounts of individual variation in the functional relationship between predictors and habitat use and used k-fold cross-validation to compare model performance. Models accounting for individual variability in shape and smoothness of functional responses performed best. Eagles exhibited the least amount of individual variation in response to land cover variables during winter months, with most individuals more closely adhering to the population-level trend. During the summer months, eagles exhibited more substantial individual variation in shape and smoothness of the functional relationships, suggesting some need to account for individual variation in eagle habitat use for both inferential and predictive purposes, during this time of year. Because they allow users to blend flexible functions with random effects structures and are well-supported by a variety of software platforms, we believe that HGAMs provide a useful addition to the suite of analyses used for modeling habitat associations or predicting species distributions.
Record magnetic field generation by short-pulse laser-driven capacitor-coil targets
Magnetic fields generated by capacitor-coil targets driven by intense short-pulse lasers have been characterized using ultrafast proton radiography. A 1-kJ, 15-ps laser at a center wavelength of 1053 nm irradiated the back plate of the capacitor with an intensity of ∼8.3 × 10 18 W/cm 2 , creating ultra large currents in the connecting coils. High-quality proton data obtained in the axial probing geometry show definitive signatures of magnetic field generation, allowing precision measurement of the field distribution and strength. The data show a coil current of 120 ± 10 kA producing 200 ± 20 Tesla magnetic fields at the coil center at 1.127 ns after the laser drive. In conclusion, this sets a record for magnetic field generation by the short-pulse-powered capacitor-coil targets.