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DOE OSTI2020

The role of geography in the complex diffusion of innovations

The urban–rural divide is increasing in modern societies calling for geographical extensions of social influence modelling. Improved understanding of innovation diffusion across locations and through social connections can provide us with new insights into the spread of information, technological progress and economic development. In this work, we analyze the spatial adoption dynamics of iWiW, an Online Social Network (OSN) in Hungary and uncover empirical features about the spatial adoption in social networks. During its entire life cycle from 2002 to 2012, iWiW reached up to 300 million friendship ties of 3 million users. We find that the number of adopters as a function of town population follows a scaling law that reveals a strongly concentrated early adoption in large towns and a less concentrated late adoption. We also discover a strengthening distance decay of spread over the life-cycle indicating high fraction of distant diffusion in early stages but the dominance of local diffusion in late stages. The spreading process is modelled within the Bass diffusion framework that enables us to compare the differential equation version with an agent-based version of the model run on the empirical network. Although both model versions can capture the macro trend of adoption, they have limited capacity to describe the observed trends of urban scaling and distance decay. We find, however that incorporating adoption thresholds, defined by the fraction of social connections that adopt a technology before the individual adopts, improves the network model fit to the urban scaling of early adopters. Controlling for the threshold distribution enables us to eliminate the bias induced by local network structure on predicting local adoption peaks. Finally, we show that geographical features such as distance from the innovation origin and town size influence prediction of adoption peak at local scales in all model specifications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Microwave Debinding of Ceramics Produced by Additive Manufacturing

Microwave-assisted debinding offers an innovative approach to processing 3D-printed engineering ceramics. Ceramic parts produced with photopolymer-based additive manufacturing techniques require thermal debinding to remove polymers that bind ceramic particles during the printing process. Microwave-assisted debinding significantly reduces processing times and offers energy savings over conventional thermal treatments due to higher heating rates and more uniform heating. Finite-element modeling of the debinding process allows for the optimization and prediction of temperature distribution, stress development, and potential defects, leading to improved process control and material quality.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

A synthetic building operation dataset

Abstract This paper presents a synthetic building operation dataset which includes HVAC, lighting, miscellaneous electric loads (MELs) system operating conditions, occupant counts, environmental parameters, end-use and whole-building energy consumptions at 10-minute intervals. The data is created with 1395 annual simulations using the U.S. DOE detailed medium-sized reference office building, and 30 years’ historical weather data in three typical climates including Miami, San Francisco, and Chicago. Three energy efficiency levels of the building and systems are considered. Assumptions regarding occupant movements, occupants’ diverse temperature preferences, lighting, and MELs are adopted to reflect realistic building operations. A semantic building metadata schema - BRICK, is used to store the building metadata. The dataset is saved in a 1.2 TB of compressed HDF5 file. This dataset can be used in various applications, including building energy and load shape benchmarking, energy model calibration, evaluation of occupant and weather variability and their influences on building performance, algorithm development and testing for thermal and energy load prediction, model predictive control, policy development for reinforcement learning based building controls.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

LLM-Based Adaptive Distribution Voltage Regulation Under Frequent Topology Changes: An In-Context MPC Framework

This paper proposes a large language model (LLM) based adaptive inverter control for distribution voltage regulation under frequent topology changes. We leverage the ability of the LLM to perform in-context learning and create a topology-adaptive surrogate model for power flow calculation. The surrogate model is then integrated with a long short-term memory-based load forecaster and a model predictive control (MPC) scheme to achieve the optimal inverter control that adapts to frequent topology changes. Unlike many existing works that assume fixed-topology grids or require the knowledge of all possible topologies when training a model, the proposed in-context MPC method tackles the distribution voltage control problem under various topologies and adapts to unknown topologies with limited data requirement for fine-tuning. The effectiveness of our method is demonstrated on a modified IEEE 123-bus test system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2019

Thermal Transport and Fracture Behavior of Sintered Fuel Pellets: Experimental Validation of NEAMS Tool MARMOT

The project targets at experimental validation of NEAMS tool MARMOT for predicting thermal transport and fuel fracture. The key components of the project include: (1) sintering UO 2 samples with well-controlled microstructures (grain size, pore, fission bubble, porosity and pore distribution either in intra- or inter-granular pores); (2) thermal conductivity measurements of these wellcharacterized polycrystalline samples; (3) indentation testing of sintered UO 2 with various grain size, porosity and stoichiometry to obtain fracture and crack propagation mechanisms (inter or intragranular fracture); and (4) validation and uncertainty quantification of the MARMOT thermal transport and fracture models. The high quality experimental data will be used to validate the predictions of MARMOT for thermal transport and fracture, using average data and local microstructure information. In this work, UO 2 fuels with controlled microstructure (grain size, pore size/structure and fuel chemistry) were successfully prepared by high energy ball milling of the hyper-stoichiometric UO 2+x powders purchased commercially, and consolidated by spark plasma sintering. Dense nano-sized UO 2 fuel pellets with controlled stoichiometry were sintered by SPS. The effects of different SPS sintering parameters on the pore size and distribution were investigated, and the correlation among the SPS parameter – microstructure control – stoichiometry/defect structure was established. To further control the pore structure and fuel chemistry, systematic thermal annealing of the sintered fuels with the controlled pore structure was performed in a reduced. The controlled microstructure and fuel chemistry enable the investigation of the separate effects of pore structure and fuel chemistry on thermal transport behavior. The mechanical properties of the sintered UO 2 fuels were tested by nanoindentation and microindentation testing at different temperatures. The fracture behavior of the sintered fuels as functions of grain structure and temperature was investigated. Nanocrystalline UO 2 display higher hardness than microcrystalline counterpart, consistent with the Hall-Petch strengthening mechanism. Greater Young’s modulus and fracture toughness are also identified for the nanocrystalline UO 2 , and hardness and Young’s modulus decrease with temperature, suggesting better ductility of oxide fuels at greater temperature at small length scale. Hyper-stoichiometric UO 2 specimen displays higher hardness and fracture toughness than stoichiometric UO 2 , due to the impediment of the crack propagation by the oxygen interstitial atoms. These results are useful in understanding the mechanical properties of the high burn-up structure (HBS) formed in nuclear fuels during reactor operation, and also provide critical experimental data as the input for the development and validation of the MARMOT fracture model of nuclear fuels. The thermal properties of the sintered UO 2 fuel pellets with controlled grain structure, fuel chemistry and pore structures are measured by laser flash and the impact of the microstructure characteristics on the thermal transport properties is elucidated. Through a close collaboration with the MARMOT team at Idaho National Laboratory, the thermal properties of the sintered oxide fuel pellets with controlled microstructures are measured experimentally, and modeled using the developed MARMOT thermal transport models for a joint effort of demonstrating high spatial resolution measurements at the microstructural level on as-fabricated nuclear fuels and materials and obtain critical experimental data for model validation and properties predictions. In this work, we also conducted sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification (UQ) on a mesoscale simulation that has been applied to understand the effective thermal conductivity of UO 2 reactor fuel using the MARMOT tool. We also conduced UQ on mechanistic macroscale models that have been developed to predict the effective thermal conductivity. The most sensitive parameter is the thermal conductivity of bulk UO 2 for the thermal conductivity models. In the future, the predicted simulation distributions need to be compared to experimental data for validation of the models.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling of the TRIGA IPR-R1 research reactor with the Serpent2/RINNOVO Nodal core analysis package

The Serpent2/RINNOVO nodal core analysis code system, a dedicated tool for modeling research reactors, has the capability to accurately predict important core physics parameters involved in the safety of reactor operation, such as various reactivity coefficients, control rod and bank worths including the shutdown margin, power distributions as well as local neutron flux predictions at various core locations of high importance, e.g., at irradiation rigs. In this work, a hexagonal model of the unrodded initial core of the Brazilian IPR-R1 Mark I type TRIGA nuclear reactor has been created using the Serpent2/RINNOVO code system. The choice of employing a hexagonal core geometry representation has mainly been made to facilitate subsequent fuel shuffling operations and core follow calculations of this reactor. Numerical results in terms of the core eigenvalue and the assembly power distribution have then been compared against corresponding full core Serpent2 results to prove feasibility of using the Serpent2/RINNOVO code system for modeling small and highly heterogeneous TRIGA reactors. Overall, RINNOVO predicts the power distribution very accurately but the eigenvalue error still remains quite large. In light of being the very first evaluation of a TRIGA reactor with the RINNOVO nodal core simulator, these results are also considered to be very preliminary. Improved accuracy is expected by incorporating a proper methodology in the current code system for computing discontinuity factors for multi-assembly configurations. Furthermore, improved results are expected by increasing the number of energy groups used by RINNOVO in these core calculations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Model Predictive Fault-Tolerant Tracking Control for PDF Control Systems With Packet Losses

In this article, a fault-tolerant tracking control strategy is investigated for nonlinear probability density function (PDF) control systems with the actuator fault, uncertainties, unknown disturbance, and random packet losses. The control input signal dropout and measurement signal dropouts are described as the independent Bernoulli distribution. An adaptive fault diagnosis (FD) observer based on the Lyapunov function is given to simultaneously estimate the fault, disturbance, and state with packet losses. Furthermore, different from the traditional robust fault-tolerant control (FTC), a new active fault-tolerant tracking controller is designed based on the model predictive control framework, which has better adaptive fault-tolerant performance. Finally, the validity of the proposed FTC method has been proved by a simulation study of a papermaking process.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of Supervisory Control System for Thermal Energy Distribution System

The integrated energy system (IES) refers to the combination of nuclear energy generation with other energy sources to enable the efficiency and reliability of power generations. To create technologically viable and economically competitive systems, supervisory control strategies are critical for optimizing performance and ensuring stability across different energy generation, transportation, and utilization. This work focuses on the control strategies for the thermal energy distribution system (TEDS), which is a cornerstone of the Dynamic Energy Transport and Integration Laboratory at Idaho National Laboratory. TEDS currently relies on operators to coordinate across different components to manage energy storage and ensure efficiency. This work demonstrates the use of model predictive control (MPC) with surrogate models in determining optimal setpoints for major TEDS components. The capability of MPC-based supervisory control system is evaluated by autonomously matching the power outputs from a Dymola-based TEDS with target heat demands.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Model Predictive Control to Improve Grid Resilience

The following article details a model predictive control (MPC) to improve grid resilience when faced with variable generation resources. This topic is of significant interest to utility power systems where distributed intermittent energy sources will increase significantly and be relied on for electric grid ancillary services. Previous work on MPCs has focused on narrowly targeted control applications such as improving electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure or reducing the cost of integrating Energy Storage Systems (ESSs) into the grid. In contrast, this article develops a comprehensive treatment of the construction of an MPC tailored to electric grids and then applies it integration of intermittent energy resources. To accomplish this, the following article includes a description of a reduced order model (ROM) of an electric power grid based on a circuit model, an optimization formulation that describes the MPC, a collocation method for solving linear time-dependent differential algebraic equations (DAEs) that result from the ROM, and an overall strategy for iteratively refining the behavior of the MPC. Next, the algorithm is validated using two separate numerical experiments. First, the algorithm is compared to an existing MPC code and the results are verified by a numerically precise simulation. It is shown that this algorithm produces a control comparable to existing algorithms and the behavior of the control carefully respects the bounds specified. Second, the MPC is applied to a small nine bus system that contains a mix of turbine-spinning-machine-based and intermittent generation in order to demonstrate the algorithm’s utility for resource planning and control of intermittent resources. This study demonstrates how the MPC can be tuned to change the behavior of the control, which can then assist with the integration of intermittent resources into the grid. The emphasis throughout the paper is to provide systematic treatment of the topic and produce a novel nonlinear control compatible design framework applicable to electric grids and the control of variable resources. This differs from the more targeted application-based focus in most presentations.

microgrid↗

DOE OSTI2020

Network-cognizant voltage droop control

The present disclosure provides techniques for network-cognizant droop control in power systems, such as a power distribution system. An example device includes a processor configured to determine, based on (i) a model representing a structure of a power system that includes a plurality of energy resources and (ii) an indication of predicted uncontrollable power injections in the power system, for each controllable energy resource in the plurality of energy resources, a respective value of a first droop coefficient and a respective value of a second droop coefficient. The processor may be further configured to cause at least one controllable energy resource in the plurality of energy resources to modify an output power of the at least one energy resource based on the respective value of the first droop coefficient and the respective value of the second droop coefficient.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic-Phasor Model of Transformer Inrush Simulation for Unbalanced Distribution System

Abstract— Power system stability is a critical concern, with respect to the increasing distributed energy resources, microgrids, and emphasis on enhancing resiliency. For stability analysis and evaluation, modeling and simulation capabilities are important. In this paper, the authors’ previous work on modeling transformer inrush dynamics is improved with a new formulation of the key equation that converts the dynamic-phasor into real-time value. Simulation results in an electromechanical time-scale are compared with PSCAD results in an electromagnetic time-scale to demonstrate the improvement. The impact of simulation step size is discussed. A bug in PSCAD transformer setting that leads to incorrect magnetizing flux and current under Delta winding type is identified and reported. In addition, explanations and analysis are provided on two modeling techniques utilized since the previous work. This work is being incorporated into the next release of GridLAB-D. The improved transformer inrush calculation enables more accurate predictions of current amplitudes for analyzing the dynamics of distribution operation and control.

power transformers, power system simulation, satur↗

DOE OSTI2020

The age distribution of global soil carbon inferred from radiocarbon measurements

Soils contain more carbon than the atmosphere and vegetation combined. An increased flow of carbon from the atmosphere into soil pools could help mitigate anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and climate change. Yet we do not know how quickly soils might respond because the age distribution of soil carbon is uncertain. Here we used 789 radiocarbon (Δ 14 C) profiles, along with other geospatial information, to create globally gridded datasets of mineral soil Δ 14 C and mean age. We found that soil depth is a primary driver of Δ 14 C, whereas climate (for example, mean annual temperature) is a major control on the spatial pattern of Δ 14 C in surface soil. Integrated to a depth of 1m, global soil carbon has a mean age of 4,830 ± 1,730 yr, with older carbon in deeper layers and permafrost regions. In contrast, vertically resolved land models simulate Δ 14 C values that imply younger carbon ages and a more rapid carbon turnover. Overall, our data-derived estimates of older mean soil carbon age suggest that soils will accumulate less carbon than predicted by current Earth system models over the twenty-first century. Reconciling these models with the global distribution of soil radiocarbon will require a better representation of the mechanisms that control carbon persistence in soils.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A dynamic volumetric heat source model for laser additive manufacturing

Melt pool scale models of laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) offer insights into the process-structure-property relationships in additive manufacturing (AM). These models often neglect physical phenomena such as vapor cavity formation and fluid mechanics to reduce computational demands. Instead, volumetric heat source models are used to represent the effects that these phenomena have on the predicted melt pool dimensions. Generally, the dimensions and effective absorption of the volumetric heat source are calibrated to reproduce melt pool dimensions observed in metallographic cross sections taken from single-track experiments on bare plate. However, the transient nature of LPBF often deviates the melt pool dimensions from the assumed steady-state conditions of single-track experiments, motivating the need for a volumetric heat source model that more generally considers the dynamic relationship between melt pool shape and laser-material interactions. Here, we introduce a two-parameter volumetric heat source model that integrates several existing models into a generalized mathematical expression, providing independent control over the radial heat distribution via the parameter k and the volumetric shape of the heat source via the parameter m. This parameterization enables the calibration of melt pool shape predictions through simultaneous adjustment of these parameters, while keeping the radial heat source dimensions consistent with the experimental spot size (D4σ) and constraining the heat source depth and absorption to physically derived expressions for cavities. Consequently, the proposed volumetric heat source model adapts to changes in the local melt pool conditions due to scanning strategy and part geometry by dynamically adjusting the heat source depth and absorption. We demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed model through comparisons with a collection of experiments from the Additive Manufacturing Benchmark (AMBench).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

A neural-network-enhanced parameter-varying framework for multi-objective model predictive control applied to buildings

Management of the electrical grid is becoming more complex due to the increased penetration of alternative energy generation technologies and a broadening diversity of electric loads. This complexity creates challenges in balancing demand and generation that can increase the potential for grid instabilities. One effective way to address this issue is to leverage previously unexploited demand flexibility through advanced control strategies. In this work, we propose an advanced control method, called adaptive neural parameter-varying model predictive control (ANPV-MPC), to control the temperature and energy consumption of a building via its Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning system. ANPV-MPC combines key ideas in parameter-varying control, adaptive control, and online learning strategies to bridge the gap between computationally efficient linear model predictive control and more accurate nonlinear model predictive control. The novelty in ANPV-MPC is the use of a physics-inspired Bayesian neural network to estimate the coefficients of the parameter-varying linear control model. The Bayesian neural network additionally provides uncertainty estimates, triggering online training to capture evolving building system conditions. We show that ANPV-MPC can approximate the building system dynamics with a 28.39% higher accuracy than traditional linear model predictive control, resulting in 36.23% better control performance without increasing complexity of the optimal control problem. ANPV-MPC also adapts in real time to previously unseen conditions using online learning, further improving its performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

How good are learning-based control v.s. model-based control for load shifting? Investigations on a single zone building energy system

Both model predictive control (MPC) and deep reinforcement learning control (DRL) have been presented as a way to approximate the true optimality of a dynamic programming problem, and these two have shown significant operational cost saving potentials for building energy systems. Furthermore, there is still a lack of in-depth quantitative studies on their approximation levels to the true optimality, especially in the building energy domain. To fill in the gap, this paper provides a numerical framework that enables the evaluation of the optimality levels of different controllers for building energy systems. This framework is then used to comprehensively compare the optimal control performance of both MPC and DRL controllers with given computation budgets for a single zone fan coil unit system. Note the optimality is estimated based on a user-specific selection of trade-off weights among energy costs, thermal comfort and control slew rates. Compared with the best optimality we can find through expensive optimization simulations, the best DRL agent can maximally approximate the optimality by 96.54%, which outperforms the best MPC whose optimality level is 90.11%. However, due to the stochasticity, the DRL agent is only expected to approximate the optimality by 90.42%, which is almost equivalent to the best MPC. Except for Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), all DRL agents can have a better approximation to the optimality than the best MPC, and are expected to have better approximation than the MPC with a prediction horizon of 32 steps (15 min per step). In terms of reducing energy cost and thermal discomfort, MPC can outperform the rule-based control (RBC) by 18.47%–25.44%. DRL can be expected to outperform RBC by 18.95%–25.65% ,and the best DRL control policy can outperform RBC by 20.29%–29.72%. Although the comparison of the optimality level is performed in a perfect setting, e.g., MPC assumes perfect models, and DRL assumes a perfect offline training process and online deployment process, this can shed insight on their capabilities of approximating to the original dynamic programming problem.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

HHL algorithm with mapping function and enhanced sampling for model predictive control in microgrids

Here, this paper presents a refined quantum Harrow Hassidim Lloyd (HHL) algorithm for microgrid control. The first novelty of the developed method is that a mapping shift function enables the original HHL algorithm to handle general linear equations with non-singular and indefinite matrix. Second, a method of Matrix Extension for Amplifying Sampling Probabilities of Intended Solution (ME-ASPI) is proposed to design the reformulated linear algebraic equations, allowing for improved sampling efficiency of the quantum tomography in the refined HHL algorithm. Then, we applied the method to solve the model predictive control (MPC) problem in nonlinear dynamical microgrids. Specifically, with the ME-ASPI method, the refined HHL algorithm can effectively obtain the intended partial optimal control inputs for MPC. The optimization of quadratic programming problem in each time step of MPC is transformed into a linear system problem, which is addressed by the proposed quantum solver through using only partial information, with the time complexity improved from $\mathscr{O}(\mathscr{N}^{2.37286})$ classically to $\mathscr{O}(\mathscr{N}^{2} log \mathscr{N}$ x $p$ log $p)$ in quantum. Numerical examples have validated the effectiveness of the refined HHL algorithm with the proposed mapping function and the ME-ASPI method. By leveraging quantum properties, the proposed method provides a hybrid quantum–classical framework for microgrid control. This generic method can also potentially tackle many other challenges in analyzing and controlling general complex engineered systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2019

Cloud Influence on ERA5 and AMPS Surface Downwelling Longwave Radiation Biases in West Antarctica

The surface downwelling longwave radiation component (LW?) is crucial for the determination of the surface energy budget and has significant implications for the resilience of ice surfaces in the polar regions. Accurate model evaluation of this radiation component requires knowledge about the phase, vertical distribution, and associated temperature of water in the atmosphere, all of which control the LW? signal measured at the surface. In this study, we examine the LW? model errors found in the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) operational forecast model and the ERA5 reanalysis model relative to observations from the AWARE campaign at McMurdo Station and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide. The errors are calculated separately for observed clear sky conditions, ice cloud occurrences, and liquid-bearing cloud layer (LBCL) occurrences. The analysis results show a tendency (in both models at each site) to underestimate the LW? during clear sky conditions, high error variability (standard deviations > 20 W/m2) during any type of cloud occurrence, and negative LW? biases when LBCLs are observed (bias magnitudes > 15 W/m2 in tenuous LBCL cases; > 43 W/m2 in optically thick/opaque LBCLs instances). We suggest that a generally dry and liquid water-deficient atmosphere responsible for the identified LW? biases in both models is the result of excessive ice formation and growth, which could stem from model initial and lateral boundary conditions, microphysics scheme, aerosol representation, and/or limited vertical resolution.

Silber, Israel↗

DOE OSTI2020

Diagnosis of convective organization and cold pools using ARM datasets and evaluation of a unified convection parameterization (UNICON)

Tropical thunderstorms often cluster together. Studies have suggested that the degree to which the tropical thunderstorms are clustered impacts Earth's energy balance and water cycle, as well as extreme precipitation events. However, the processes controlling the spatial distribution of the thunderstorms are poorly understood and are not properly represented in most computer models for weather and climate prediction. Under the goals of better understanding how convection organizes at the mesoscale and advancing the representation of mesoscale convective organization in global climate models, we i) objectively quantified the degrees of convective organization and diagnosed cold pool processes using ARM field campaign observations, ii) examined the organization processes in storm-resolving model simulations, and iii) evaluated the impacts of mesoscale convective organization in global model simulations. The project yielded a firm reference against which the global model representation of mesoscale convective organization and cold pools can be evaluated against and shed new light into the role of parameterized convective organization in the global model simulation of the basic state and variability. Our results revealed two distinct phases of convective clustering during the two-day rain episodes (Cheng et al. 2018) and a new mechanism through which vertical wind shear in the low-troposphere can aid convective organization over tropical oceans (Cheng et al. 2020). It was demonstrated that the interactive representation of cold pools and mesoscale convective organization is key for global models to successfully simulate both the mean state and intraseasonal variability in the tropics (Ahn et al. 2019; 2020).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗