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DOE OSTI2020

The matrix product approximation for the dynamic cavity method

Stochastic dynamics of classical degrees of freedom, defined on vertices of locally tree-like graphs, can be studied in the framework of the dynamic cavity method which is exact for tree graphs. Such models correspond for example to spin-glass systems, Boolean networks, neural networks, and other technical, biological, and social networks. The central objects in the cavity method are edge messages—conditional probabilities of two vertex variable trajectories. In this paper, we discuss a rather pedagogical derivation for the dynamic cavity method, give a detailed account of the novel matrix product edge message (MPEM) algorithm for the solution of the dynamic cavity equation as introduced, and present optimizations and extensions. Matrix product approximations of the edge messages are constructed recursively in an iteration over time. Computation costs and precision can be tuned by controlling the matrix dimensions of the MPEM in truncations. Without truncations, the dynamics is exact. Data for Glauber–Ising dynamics shows a linear growth of computation costs in time. In contrast to Monte Carlo simulations, the approach has a much better error scaling. Hence, it gives for example access to low probability events and decaying observables like temporal correlations. Here, we discuss optimized truncation schemes and an extension that allows to capture models which have a continuum time limit.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone development classification utilizing machine learning and synoptic composites

This study evaluates the ability of machine learning algorithms to classify tropical depressions (TDs) and tropical storms (TSs) in the western region of the southwest Pacific Ocean (SWPO). Decision rules are generated to predict the environment required for a depression to fully develop into a mature storm, and the most influential predictors in the classification decision are ranked. TD and TS are discriminated based on a maximum sustained wind speed threshold (≥17 ms -1 ). Various aerosol, thermodynamic, and dynamic parameters are extracted closest to the initiation point of each non-developing and developing sample. The covariates associated with each labelled sample are used to train a decision tree and random forest model. Results using a testing dataset suggest the random forest approach more accurately distinguishes between non-developing and developing samples. The classification accuracy of the decision tree and random forest are 72% and 91%, respectively. Random forest outperformed the decision tree by providing higher accuracy in test data. The most important variables for binary classification are sea salt aerosol optical depth (AOD), 1,000 mb relative humidity, and sea surface temperature. AOD is a quantitative estimate of the aerosols presents in the air through the extinction of a ray of light as it passes through the atmosphere. Mean composite maps constructed in an unsupervised manner have been created for the most important variables identified by the random forest classifier during TD and TS events to highlight the difference in geophysical and aerosol variables' climatology during the two different classifications. This work will advance the risk management strategies for northeastern Australia and other SWPO basin islands to control their tropical cyclone related losses through prioritizing forecasting variables that are the strongest predictors of the strengthening of tropical depressions into tropical cyclones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Drought-influenced mortality of tree species with different predawn leaf water dynamics in a decade-long study of a central US forest

Using decade-long continuous observations of tree mortality and predawn leaf water potential (ψ pd ) at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) site, we studied how the mortality of important tree species varied and how such variations may be predicted. Water stress determined inter-annual variations in tree mortality with a time delay of 1 year or more, which was correlated fairly tightly with a number of quantitative predictors formulated based on ψ pd and precipitation regimes. Predictors based on temperature and vapor pressure deficit anomalies worked reasonably well, particularly for moderate droughts. The exceptional drought of the year 2012 drastically increased the mortality of all species, including drought-tolerant oaks, in the subsequent year. The drought-influenced tree mortality was related to the species position along the spectrum of ψ pd regulation capacity with those in either ends of the spectrum being associated with elevated risk of death. Regardless of species and drought intensity, the ψ pd of all species recovered rapidly after sufficiently intense rain events in all droughts. This result, together with a lack of immediate leaf and branch desiccation, suggests an absence of catastrophic hydraulic disconnection in the xylem and that tree death was caused by significant but indirect effects. Species differences in the capacity of regulating ψ pd and its temporal integral were magnified under moderate drought intensities but diminished towards wet and dry extremes. Severe droughts may overwhelm the capacity of even drought-tolerant species to maintain differential levels of water potential as the soil becomes exhausted of available water in the rooting zone, thus rendering them more susceptible to death if predisposed by other factors such as age.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Lateral Gene Transfer Dynamics in the Ancient Bacterial Genus Streptomyces

Lateral gene transfer (LGT) profoundly shapes the evolution of bacterial lineages. LGT across disparate phylogenetic groups and genome content diversity between related organisms suggest a model of bacterial evolution that views LGT as rampant and promiscuous. It has even driven the argument that species concepts and tree-based phylogenetics cannot be applied to bacteria. For this paper, we show that acquisition and retention of genes through LGT are surprisingly rare in the ubiquitous and biomedically important bacterial genus Streptomyces . Using a molecular clock, we estimate that the Streptomyces bacteria are ~380 million years old, indicating that this bacterial genus is as ancient as land vertebrates. Calibrating LGT rate to this geologic time span, we find that on average only 10 genes per million years were acquired and subsequently maintained. Over that same time span, Streptomyces accumulated thousands of point mutations. By explicitly incorporating evolutionary timescale into our analyses, we provide a dramatically different view on the dynamics of LGT and its impact on bacterial evolution.Tree-based phylogenetics and the use of species as units of diversity lie at the foundation of modern biology. In bacteria, these pillars of evolutionary theory have been called into question due to the observation of thousands of lateral gene transfer (LGT) events within and between lineages. Here, we show that acquisition and retention of genes through LGT are exceedingly rare in the bacterial genus Streptomyces , with merely one gene acquired in Streptomyces lineages every 100,000 years. These findings stand in contrast to the current assumption of rampant genetic exchange, which has become the dominant hypothesis used to explain bacterial diversity. Our results support a more nuanced understanding of genetic exchange, with LGT impacting evolution over short timescales but playing a significant role over long timescales. Deeper understanding of LGT provides new insight into the evolutionary history of life on Earth, as the vast majority of this history is microbial.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Dry-Season Greening and Water Stress in Amazonia: The Role of Modeling Leaf Phenology

Large uncertainties on the sensitivity of Amazon forests to drought exist. Even though water stress should suppress photosynthesis and enhance tree mortality, a green-up has been often observed during the dry season. This interplay between climatic forcing and forest phenology is poorly understood and inadequately represented in most of existing dynamic global vegetation models calling for an improved description of the Amazon seasonal dynamics. Recent findings on tropical leaf phenology are incorporated in the state-of-the-art eco-hydrological model Thetys & Chloris. The new model accounts for a mechanistic light-controlled leaf development, synchronized dry-season litterfall, and an age-dependent leaf photosynthetic capacity. Simulation results from 32 sites in the Amazon basin over a 15-year period successfully mimic the seasonality of gross primary productivity; evapotranspiration (ET); as well as leaf area index, leaf age, and leaf productivity. Representation of tropical leaf phenology reproduces the observed dry-season greening, reduces simulated gross primary productivity, and does not alter ET, when compared with simulations without phenology. Tolerance to dry periods, with the exception of major drought events, is simulated by the model. Deep roots rather than leaf area index regulation mechanisms control the response to short-term droughts, but legacy effects can exacerbate multiyear water stress. Our results provide a novel mechanistic approach to model leaf phenology and flux seasonality in the tropics, reconciling the generally observed dry-season greening, ET seasonality, and decreased carbon uptake during severe droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comparative transcriptomics uncovers poplar and fungal genetic determinants of ectomycorrhizal compatibility

Ectomycorrhizal symbiosis supports tree growth and is crucial for nutrient cycling and temperate and boreal ecosystems functioning. The establishment of functional ectomycorrhiza (ECM) first requires the association of compatible partners. However, host and fungal genetic determinants governing mycorrhizal compatibility are unknown. To identify such factors in poplar and its fungal associates, we mined existing and de novo tree and fungal transcriptional datasets. We identified co-expressed genes enabling ECM symbiosis at early and mature stages of the interaction. These sets of genes can be divided into general fungal-sensing and ECM-specific components. We highlight the importance of fungal modulation of plant JA-related defenses and the regulation of secretory pathways for ECM compatibility, including upregulation of key fungal small secreted proteins, the downregulation of plant secreted peroxidases, and the downregulation of plant cell wall remodeling proteins concomitantly with the upregulation of fungal glycosyl hydrolases acting on pectin. Not only gene regulation, but also its temporal scale and dynamics seem to play a crucial role for mycorrhizal compatibility. The expression profile of the host Common Symbiosis Pathway and nutrient transporters was also studied, revealing constitutive levels of expression and moderate upregulation in compatible ECM interactions. Overall, these results underscore the importance of novel biological functions during the establishment of ECM symbiosis, help us gain insights into the molecular events determining mycorrhiza compatibility, and serve as a data-rich transcriptomic resource to open new research questions in the field.

Marqués‐Gálvez, José Eduardo↗

DOE OSTI2025

Growth–Mortality Coordination Differs Among Xerophytic Versus Mesophytic Tree Species During Severe Drought

ABSTRACT Forest composition is changing, yet the consequences for terrestrial carbon cycling are unclear. In the eastern United States, water‐demanding “mesophytic” tree species are replacing “xerophytic” oaks (Quercusspp.) and hickories (Caryaspp.), raising concerns that forest productivity will become increasingly sensitive to more frequent and severe drought conditions predicted for the region. However, we have a limited understanding of the extent to which the mortality risk of xerophytes versus mesophytes is coordinated with their growth sensitivity during drought. Here, we evaluated growth and mortality dynamics for 20 abundant eastern United States tree species following a severe drought in the summer of 2012. We synthesized data from ~4500 forest inventory plots and used an approach that quantified relative drought responses between co‐located trees to minimize impacts from environmental heterogeneity. We found that mesophytes were just as likely to perish as co‐occurring xerophytes but were more sensitive to drought in terms of diminished growth. These findings suggest that xerophytic decline is likely to lead to reduced carbon uptake during drought and that management efforts to conserve oak‐hickory stands will be decisive to sustain the carbon mitigation potential of these forests. However, we also found that growth‐mortality relationships differed between functional groups. Among xerophytes, growth and survival during drought were decoupled. Among mesophytes, there was a high degree of coordination, where species that experienced greater mortality also experienced greater growth reductions. Therefore, mesophytes with high growth sensitivity to water deficits are likely to be the most vulnerable to drought‐driven die‐off events moving forward.

Biodiversity & Conservation↗

DOE OSTI2017

Operational performance risk assessment in support of a supervisory control system - 251

A supervisory control system is being developed for multiunit advanced small modular reactors to minimize human interventions during normal and abnormal operations. In the supervisory control system, control action decisions are made based on a probabilistic risk assessment that employs event trees and fault trees. Although traditional probabilistic risk assessment tools are implemented, their scope is extended to normal operations, and the application is reversed to assess the success of non-safety related systems and to enable continued operation of the plant. This extended probabilistic risk assessment approach is called operational performance risk assessment (OPRA). OPRA helps to identify available paths, combine control actions for maintaining plant conditions within operational limits, and to quantify the likelihood of success of these operational trajectories to optimize the selection of alternative actions without activating reactor protection system. In this paper, a case study of OPRA in a supervisory control system is demonstrated for the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor (ALMR) Power Reactor Inherently Safe Module (PRISM) design, specifically the power conversion system. The scenario investigated involved a condition in which the feedwater control valve that was observed to be drifting to the closed position. Alternative plant configurations that would allow the plant to continue to operate at full or reduced power were identified using OPRA. Dynamic analyses were performed with a thermal-hydraulic model of the ALMR PRISM system using Modelica to evaluate the magnitude of safety margins. Successful recovery paths for the selected scenario were identified and quantified using the supervisory control system. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Extended magnetohydrodynamics with embedded particle-in-cell simulation of Ganymede's magnetosphere

Here, we have recently developed a new modeling capability to embed the implicit particle–in–cell (PIC) model iPIC3D into the Block–Adaptive–Tree–Solarwind–Roe–Upwind–Scheme magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model. The MHD with embedded PIC domains (MHD–EPIC) algorithm is a two–way coupled kinetic–fluid model. As one of the very first applications of the MHD–EPIC algorithm, we simulate the interaction between Jupiter's magnetospheric plasma and Ganymede's magnetosphere. We compare the MHD–EPIC simulations with pure Hall MHD simulations and compare both model results with Galileo observations to assess the importance of kinetic effects in controlling the configuration and dynamics of Ganymede's magnetosphere. We find that the Hall MHD and MHD–EPIC solutions are qualitatively similar, but there are significant quantitative differences. In particular, the density and pressure inside the magnetosphere show different distributions. For our baseline grid resolution the PIC solution is more dynamic than the Hall MHD simulation and it compares significantly better with the Galileo magnetic measurements than the Hall MHD solution. The power spectra of the observed and simulated magnetic field fluctuations agree extremely well for the MHD–EPIC model. The MHD–EPIC simulation also produced a few flux transfer events (FTEs) that have magnetic signatures very similar to an observed event. The simulation shows that the FTEs often exhibit complex 3–D structures with their orientations changing substantially between the equatorial plane and the Galileo trajectory, which explains the magnetic signatures observed during the magnetopause crossings. The computational cost of the MHD–EPIC simulation was only about 4 times more than that of the Hall MHD simulation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Cosmological simulations of early black hole formation: halo mergers, tidal disruption, and the conditions for direct collapse

Gravitational collapse of a massive primordial gas cloud is thought to be a promising path for the formation of supermassive black holes in the early universe. We study conditions for the so-called direct collapse (DC) black hole formation in a fully cosmological context. We combine a semianalytic model of early galaxy formation with halo merger trees constructed from dark matter N-body simulations. We locate a total of 68 possible DC sites in a volume of 20 h{sup −1} Mpc on a side. We then perform hydrodynamics simulations for 42 selected halos to study in detail the evolution of the massive clouds within them. We find only two successful cases where the gas clouds rapidly collapse to form stars. In the other cases, gravitational collapse is prevented by the tidal force exerted by a nearby massive halo, which otherwise should serve as a radiation source necessary for DC. Ram pressure stripping disturbs the cloud approaching the source. In many cases, a DC halo and its nearby light source halo merge before the onset of cloud collapse. When the DC halo is assembled through major mergers, the gas density increases rapidly to trigger gravitational instability. Based on our cosmological simulations, we conclude that the event rate of DC is an order of magnitude smaller than reported in previous studies, although the absolute rate is still poorly constrained. It is necessary to follow the dynamical evolution of a DC cloud and its nearby halo(s) in order to determine the critical radiation flux for DC.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Cumulative effects of fire and drought in Mediterranean ecosystems

Here, the occurrence of multiple disturbances can jointly affect the recovery capacity of ecosystems, potentially leading to changes in vegetation dynamics or loss of resilience. The effects of interacting disturbances on ecosystems are, however, not well understood. We use a model system based on Mediterraneantype ecosystems (MTEs) to examine how the interplay between vegetation regeneration traits and compound, stochastic disturbances modulate ecosystem dynamics. We developed a state-and-transition simulation model including two tree species with contrasting regeneration strategies (seeder vs. resprouter) and a shrubland formation. We aim to assess potential compositional switches under contrasted scenarios of compound fire-drought regimes, and to characterize the cumulative effects of fire-drought (synergism vs. antagonism) relative to the effects of individual disturbance regimes. Our simulation results indicate that interaction between moderate fire and sporadic drought recurrence-as opposed to chronic dryness-can act as a strong mechanism generating highly heterogeneous landscapes in which different regeneration types coexist, as observed in MTEs. Resprouters dominated under individual, moderate disturbance regimes of fire or drought, whereas the interaction of the two disturbances promoted the longterm coexistence of both tree regeneration strategies. However, shrubland expansion and persistence at the expanse of forests was favored by increases in drought recurrence and associated fire-drought interactions, highlighting the potential for important vegetation changes in MTEs under climate change. Overall, the cumulative effects of fire and drought can lead to distinct landscape configurations under moderate disturbance regimes that are otherwise only attained under high frequency of individual disturbances. At the ecosystem level, however, we suggest that disturbance-induced vegetation dynamics can modify vegetation sensitivity and resilience to further disturbances precluding the prevalence of synergistic effects of the two disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Reliability Assessment of Safety-Critical Network Communication in a Digitalized Nuclear Power Plant

In analog instrumentation and control (I and C) systems for nuclear power plants (NPPs), most connections are comprised of hardwired point-to-point types. Since they are based on analog technologies, they are fragile to noise and require analog-to-digital conversion time. Therefore, many NPPs have adopted communication network for the exchange of safety-critical data between programmable logic controllers (PLCs) in digital I and C systems to effectively accommodate a huge number of field controllers. However, the primary issue of digital network communication in a safety-critical system involves potential hazards, such as partial or total loss of communication between PLCs, which may result in a failure of safety critical signal generation when it is needed. Therefore, the probability that a safety-critical system in digitalized NPP becomes unsafe due to a network failure must be evaluated to quantify the risk of digital I and C system. In Korea, the Engineered Safety Feature-Component Control System (ESF-CCS) was developed as one of the digital safety-critical system in Advanced Power Reactor- 1400 (APR-1400). The function of a digital engineered safety feature (ESF) actuation system and field actuator controllers of conventional NPPs are performed by the ESF-CCS. In this system, safety-critical network, High Reliable- Safety Data Network (HR-SDN), was employed for the safety-critical data transmission from group controllers (GCs) to loop controllers (LCs). In this study, a framework for assessing the reliability of a HR-SDN network communication between GCs and LCs in the ESF-CCS in addition to a fault-tree model for ESF components considering network failure between GCs and LCs were developed to assess the plant risk effect of a newly developed digitalized ESF-CCS. Based on the case studies and cut set analysis, the risk effect of network failure on plant risk and the important risk contributors of network failure were quantitatively addressed. A framework for identifying the potential hazardous states of network communication in the ESFCCS was proposed. In addition, a fault-tree model for network communication failure was developed to estimate the risk effects of network failure between the GCs and LCs on ESF-CCS signal failure. The developed fault-tree model was then applied to several case studies. The fault-tree model of ESF-CCS signal failure for ESF components required for various mitigation actions regarding NPP DBAs was designed by considering the identified hazardous states of network failure that would result in a failure to provide input signals to the corresponding LC. As a sensitivity study, three case studies were performed based on the periodic test methods for hardware components in HR-SDN module and their test intervals in this study. The quantitative results for three case studies demonstrated that the probability of overall network communication failure, which was calculated as the sum of the failure probability associated with each failure cause, contributed up to 1.58% on the Small-LOCA CD frequency. The results also revealed the important basic events related to network failure in the case studies which included CCF of hardware and software in HR-SDN module. This study is expected to provide insight into the development of the fault-tree model for the network failure in digital I and C system and into the quantification of the risk effect of network failure for safety-critical data transmission in NPPs. As a further study, the risk effects of network failure in the ESF-CCS on the plant risk can be estimated in a more detailed manner by analyzing the failure modes and causes in a sub-component level and the fault detection coverage of the fault tolerance techniques for network failure implemented in ESF-CCS after the detailed configuration of ESF-CCS is decided. In terms of the failure of manual ESF actuation, the relationship among the human action failures must be investigated to consider multiple human error condition since ESF-CCS provides multiple manual actuation to assure the diversity of the system. Since the conventional HEP method cannot accommodate the multiple conditions in a fault tree, condition-based human reliability assessment (CBHRA) method or the dynamic human reliability modeling approach can be applied to include a complex relationship among the automated safety signal generation and the human operator's manual actuation, avoiding the optimistic estimation of HEP of the human action failure.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

AI-Guided Reasoning-Based Operator Support System for the Nuclear Power Plant Management

The Decision-making process in the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) control room faces some challenges: operator incomplete knowledge, insufficient time for responding to the highly dynamic events, and a large number of indicators to monitor. Because of the complexity of the NPP system, it is hard to pre-plan all the failures/mitigative actions. An intelligent operator support system is vital to mitigate these shortcomings. In this paper, an AI declarative approach (Answer Set Programming (ASP)) is employed to represent our knowledge of the nuclear power plant in the form of logic rules. This represented knowledge is structured to form a reasoning-based operator support system. When an incident occurs, this ASP-based reasoning support system is demonstrated to be capable of fault identification (diagnosis), informing the operator of different scenarios and consequences, and generating the control options (decision making).

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multi-agent motion planning with sporadic communications for collision avoidance

Here, a novel multi-vehicle motion planning and collision avoidance algorithm is proposed and analyzed. The algorithm aims to reduce the amount of onboard calculations and inter-agent communications needed for each vehicle to successfully navigate through an environment with static obstacles and reach their goals. To this end, each agent first calculates a path to the goal by means of an asymptotically optimal rapidly-exploring random tree (RRT*) with respect to the static obstacles. Then, other agents are treated as dynamic obstacles and potential collisions are determined by means of collision cones. Collision cones depend on the position and velocity from other agents and are grown conservatively between inter-agent communications. Based on the available information, each agent determines if a deconfliction maneuver is needed, if it can continue along its current path, or if communication is needed to make a decision about a conflict. With probability one, our algorithm guarantees that the agents keep from colliding with each other. Under an assumption on the existence of a solution for a vehicle to its goal, this algorithm also solves the planning problem with probability one. Simulations illustrate a group of agents successfully reaching their goal configurations and examine how the uncertainty affects the communication frequency of the multi-agent system.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Comparison of tree transpiration under wet and dry canopy conditions in a Costa Rican premontane tropical forest

Spatial and temporal variation in wet canopy conditions following precipitation events can influence processes such as transpiration and photosynthesis, which can be additionally enhanced as upper canopy leaves dry more rapidly than the understory following each event. As part of a larger study aimed at improving land surface modelling of evapotranspiration processes in wet tropical forests, we compared transpiration among trees with exposed and shaded crowns under both wet and dry canopy conditions in central Costa Rica, which has an average 420 mm annual rainfall. Transpiration was estimated for 5 months using 43 sap flux sensors in eight dominant, ten midstory and eight suppressed trees in a mature forest stand surrounding a 40-m tower equipped with micrometeorological sensors. Dominant trees were 13% of the plot's trees and contributed around 76% to total transpiration at this site, whereas midstory and suppressed trees contributed 18 and 5%, respectively. After accounting for vapour pressure deficit and solar radiation, leaf wetness was a significant driver of sap flux, reducing it by as much as 28%. Under dry conditions, sap flux rates (J s ) of dominant trees were similar to midstory trees and were almost double that of suppressed trees. On wet days, all trees had similarly low J s . As expected, semi-dry conditions (dry upper canopy) led to higher J s in dominant trees than midstory, which had wetter leaves, but semi-dry conditions only reduced total stand transpiration slightly and did not change the relative proportion of transpiration from dominant and midstory. Thus, models that better capture forest stand wet–dry canopy dynamics and individual tree water use strategies are needed to improve accuracy of predictions of water recycling over tropical forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Drivers and ecological impacts of a wildfire outbreak in the southern Appalachian Mountains after decades of fire exclusion

During one of the warmest and driest droughts of the last century, the southern Appalachian Mountains experienced a regional outbreak of over a dozen large wildfires in late fall of 2016. We provide a synthesis of long-term forest changes leading up to the 2016 wildfires, examine the climatic setting and patterns of burn severity in relationship to topography, and discuss the ecological and management implications of these and future fires. During the pre- and post-European settlement periods, frequent low- and mixed-severity wildfires interacted with complex topographic gradients and maintained heterogenous landscapes dominated by several species of oak (Quercus spp.), pine (Pinus spp.), and the American chestnut (Castanea dentata). Land-use changes associated with European settlement, loss of the American chestnut, and 20th century fire exclusion resulted in large scale shifts towards mesic, fire-intolerant species (i.e. mesophication). Wildfire activity began increasing in the early 1980s, but most fires in the region are small (<1,000 ha). In Fall of 2016, deciduous tree leaf fall occurred concurrently with a period of anomalously dry and warm weather, creating ideal conditions for fire ignition and spread. Thousands of ignitions across the region strained suppression resources and eight fires grew to greater than 5,000 ha. The 2016 fires were larger and burned more area than in the previous three decades combined. In one unique landscape setting, the Chimney Tops 2 Fire, a synoptic wind event drove extreme fire behavior and burned large, high-severity patches resulting in devastating effects in the wildland urban interface. However, immediate post-fire burn severity mosaics for other fires were composed primarily of low- (73 %) and moderate-severity (21 %) fire effects. High-severity fire comprised only 6 % of the area burned, and occurred mostly on steep upper slopes and ridges on south-facing aspects, reflecting the importance of bottom-up topographic drivers in this region. Although the fires will likely enhance biodiversity by restoring fire-dependent species and creating early seral habitat, invasions of non-native plant species, delayed mortality of mature pines and oaks, and rapid re-sprouting of pyrophyllic shrubs pose significant management challenges. Although similar large fire outbreaks may become more common under future climatic conditions, they are unlikely to reverse the effects of mesophication and significantly alter forest dynamics at broad spatial scales. Furthermore, the 2016 fires exposed the vulnerability of the region to wildfire during acute fall drought and demonstrate the potential ecological effects of future wildfires in mixed pine-hardwood landscapes of the southern Appalachians.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Increased Occurrence of Large–Scale Windthrows Across the Amazon Basin

Convective storms with strong downdrafts create windthrows: snapped and uprooted trees that locally alter the structure, composition, and carbon balance of forests. Comparing Landsat imagery from subsequent years, we documented temporal and spatial variation in the occurrence of large (≥30 ha) windthrows across the Amazon basin from 1985 to 2020. Over 33 individual years, we detected 3179 large windthrows. Windthrow density was greatest in the central and western Amazon regions, with ~33% of all events occurring in ~3% of the monitored area. Return intervals for large windthrows in the same location of these “hotspot” regions are centuries to millennia, while over the rest of the Amazon they are >10,000 years. Our data demonstrate a nearly 4–fold increase in windthrow number and affected area between 1985 (78 windthrows and 6,900 ha) and 2020 (264 events and 32,170 ha), with more events of >500 ha size since 1990. Such extremely large events (>500 ha up to 2,543 ha) are responsible for interannual variation in the overall median (84 ± 5.2 ha; ±95% CI) and mean (147 ± 13 ha) windthrow area, but we did not find significant temporal trends in the size distribution of windthrows with time. Our results document increased damage from convective storms over the past 40 years in the Amazon, filling a gap in temporal records for tropical regions. Our publicly accessible large windthrow database provides a valuable tool for exploring dynamic conditions leading to damaging storms and their ecological impact on Amazon forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic subcanopy leaf traits drive resistance of net primary production across a disturbance severity gradient

Across the globe, the forest carbon sink is increasingly vulnerable to an expanding array of low- to moderate-severity disturbances. However, some forest ecosystems exhibit functional resistance (i.e., the capacity of ecosystems to continue functioning as usual) following disturbances such as extreme weather events and insect or fungal pathogen outbreaks. Unlike severe disturbances (e.g., stand-replacing wildfires), moderate severity disturbances do not always result in near-term declines in forest production because of the potential for compensatory growth, including enhanced subcanopy production. Community-wide shifts in subcanopy plant functional traits, prompted by disturbance-driven environmental change, may play a key mechanistic role in resisting declines in net primary production (NPP) up to thresholds of canopy loss. However, the temporal dynamics of these shifts, as well as the upper limits of disturbance for which subcanopy production can compensate, remain poorly characterized. In this study, we leverage a 4-year dataset from an experimental forest disturbance in northern Michigan to assess subcanopy community trait shifts as well as their utility in predicting ecosystem NPP resistance across a wide range of implemented disturbance severities. Through mechanical girdling of stems, we achieved a gradient of severity from 0% (i.e., control) to 45, 65, and 85% targeted gross canopy defoliation, replicated across four landscape ecosystems broadly representative of the Upper Great Lakes ecoregion. We found that three of four examined subcanopy community weighted mean (CWM) traits including leaf photosynthetic rate (p = 0.04), stomatal conductance (p = 0.07), and the red edge normalized difference vegetation index (p < 0.0001) shifted rapidly following disturbance but before widespread changes in subcanopy light environment triggered by canopy tree mortality. Surprisingly, stimulated subcanopy production fully compensated for upper canopy losses across our gradient of experimental severities, achieving complete resistance (i.e., no significant interannual differences from control) of whole ecosystem NPP even in the 85% disturbance treatment. Additionally, we identified a probable mechanistic switch from nutrient-driven to light-driven trait shifts as disturbance progressed. Our findings suggest that remotely sensed traits such as the red edge normalized difference vegetation index (reNDVI) could be particularly sensitive and robust predictors of production response to disturbance, even across compositionally diverse forests. The potential of leaf spectral indices to predict post-disturbance functional resistance is promising given the capabilities of airborne to satellite remote sensing. We conclude that dynamic functional trait shifts following disturbance can be used to predict production response across a wide range of disturbance severities.

resistance↗