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Linking classical PRA models to a dynamic PRA

Here, this paper presents a series of methods designed to incorporate classical Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) models such as Event Trees (ETs) and Fault Trees (FTs) into dynamic PRA. In contrast to classical PRA, dynamic PRA couples stochastic methods with system simulators to determine the risks associated with complex systems such as nuclear power plants. Compared with classical PRA methods, they can evaluate with higher resolution the safety impact of timing and sequencing of events on the progression of the accident. As part of a dynamic PRA analysis, it is not uncommon that parts of the system to be analyzed might not require a computationally expensive simulation model. These parts could be in fact modeled by employing classical PRA models (e.g., a FT). Here, we present a set of methods and tools that can be used to link the most common classical PRA models (ETs, FTs, reliability block diagrams and Markov models) to simulation codes such as RELAP5-3D: creating a “hybrid PRA.” In order to show the potential of such an hybrid PRA we employ this method to verify ET modeling assumptions (e.g., success criteria) using a large break loss of coolant accident initiating event as a test case. In this respect, we link a set of FTs from the original PRA to the RELAP5-3D code and perform a hybrid PRA. The FTs are employed to model the control logic of several safety systems and to propagate component failures throughout the system. Provided the generated dynamic PRA data, we show how conservative assumptions in the original PRA can be identified and how such original PRA can be modified by updating success criteria captured by the set of RELAP5-3D simulation runs.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Prospective Impact Analysis of Novel Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 Degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics. The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Additionally we compare our results by linking two other prospective models with LiAISON - GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) and ReEDS (Regional Energy Deployment System) to analyze the effect of changing background scenarios using varying predictions in life cycle analysis.

decarbonizing↗

Towards Prospective LCA Using Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) Framework for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 Degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Additionally we compare our results by linking two other prospective models with LiAISON - GCAM(Global Change Assessment Model) and ReEDS (Regional Energy Deployment System) to analyze the effect of changing background scenarios using varying predictions in life cycle analysis.

emissions↗

Link statistics of dislocation network during strain hardening

Dislocations are line defects in crystals that multiply and self-organize into a complex network during strain hardening. The length of dislocation links, connecting neighboring nodes within this network, contains crucial information about the evolving dislocation microstructure. By analyzing data from Discrete Dislocation Dynamics (DDD) simulations in face-centered cubic (fcc) Cu, we characterize the statistical distribution of link lengths of dislocation networks during strain hardening on individual slip systems. Here, our analysis reveals that link lengths on active slip systems follow a double-exponential distribution, while those on inactive slip systems conform to a single-exponential distribution. The distinctive long tail observed in the double-exponential distribution is attributed to the stress-induced bowing out of long links on active slip systems, a feature that disappears upon removal of the applied stress. We further demonstrate that both observed link length distributions can be explained by extending a one-dimensional Poisson process to include different growth functions. Specifically, the double-exponential distribution emerges when the growth rate for links exceeding a critical length becomes super-linear, which aligns with the physical phenomenon of long links bowing out under stress. This work advances our understanding of dislocation microstructure evolution during strain hardening and elucidates the underlying physical mechanisms governing its formation.

Crystal plasticity↗

Probabilistic Assessment of Structural Integrity

A probability-based approach, combining deterministic and probabilistic methods, was developed for analyzing building and component failures, which are especially crucial for complex structures like nuclear power plants. This method links finite element and probabilistic software to assess structural integrity under static and dynamic loads. This study uses NEPTUNE software, which is validated, for a deterministic transient analysis and ProFES software for probabilistic models. In a case study, deterministic analyses with varied random variables were transferred to ProFES for probabilistic analyses of piping failure and wall damage. A Monte Carlo Simulation, First-Order Reliability Method, and combined methods were employed for probabilistic analyses under severe transient loading, focusing on a postulated accident at the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant. The study considered uncertainties in material properties, component geometry, and loads. The results showed the Monte Carlo Simulation method to be conservative for high failure probabilities but less so for low probabilities. The Response Surface/Monte Carlo Simulation method explored the impact load–failure probability relationship. Given the uncertainties in material properties and loads in complex structures, a deterministic analysis alone is insufficient. Probabilistic analysis is imperative for extreme loading events and credible structural safety evaluations.

Mathematics↗

Simulation-Based Recovery Action Analysis Using the EMRALD Dynamic Risk Assessment Tool

Recovery human action is defined as the action that prevents deviant conditions from producing unwanted effects. Analyzing recovery actions has been a critical part in human reliability analysis (HRA). However, there are a couple of limitations to treating recovery actions using only the current HRA methods available. Representatively, the existing recovery analysis does not specifically consider recovery actions as they have occurred in actual nuclear power plants (NPPs). To handle the challenges in the existing recovery analyses, this study suggests a way to analyze recovery actions under a dynamic HRA method, the Procedure-based Risk Investigation MEthod-Human Reliability Analysis (PRIME-HRA) method. The PRIME-HRA method suggests a way on how to develop dynamic simulation models using dynamic risk assessment tools such as the Event Modeling Risk Assessment Using Linked Diagram (EMRALD) [1] and the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) [2]. EMRALD and HUNTER are the dynamic probabilistic risk assessment and HRA tools developed at Idaho National Laboratory. In this paper, differences on analyzing recovery actions in the Technique for Human Error-Rate Prediction (THERP), the Cause-Based Decision Tree (CBDT) and the Korean Standard HRA (K-HRA) and challenges of these approaches are introduced. How we have developed the PRIME-HRA is also introduced in this paper. Then, the proposed approach to analyzing recovery human actions in dynamic context is partially discussed with an example.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Microwave analog fiber-optic link for use in the deep space network

A novel fiber-optic system with dynamic range of up to 150 dB-Hz for transmission of microwave analog signals is described. The design, analysis, and laboratory evaluations of this system are reported, and potential applications in the NASA/JPL Deep Space Network are discussed.

Logan, R. T., Jr.↗

Broadly cross-reactive human antibodies that inhibit genogroup I and II noroviruses

The rational development of norovirus vaccine candidates requires a deep understanding of the antigenic diversity and mechanisms of neutralization of the virus. Here, we isolate and characterize a panel of broadly cross-reactive naturally occurring human monoclonal IgMs, IgAs and IgGs reactive with human norovirus (HuNoV) genogroup I or II (GI or GII). We note three binding patterns and identify monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) that neutralize at least one GI or GII HuNoV strain when using a histo-blood group antigen (HBGA) blocking assay. The HBGA blocking assay and a virus neutralization assay using human intestinal enteroids reveal that the GII-specific mAb NORO-320, mediates HBGA blocking and neutralization of multiple GII genotypes. The Fab form of NORO-320 neutralizes GII.4 infection more potently than the mAb, however, does not block HBGA binding. The crystal structure of NORO-320 Fab in complex with GII.4 P-domain shows that the antibody recognizes a highly conserved region in the P-domain distant from the HBGA binding site. Dynamic light scattering analysis of GII.4 virus-like particles with mAb NORO-320 shows severe aggregation, suggesting neutralization is by steric hindrance caused by multivalent cross-linking. Aggregation was not observed with the Fab form of NORO-320, suggesting that this clone also has additional inhibitory features.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The HUNTER Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis Tool: Coupling an External Plant Code

The Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) is a framework to support dynamic human reliability analysis (HRA) with the aim to develop standalone software to perform the dynamic HRA calculations. Within the HRA, human actions in nuclear power plants (NPPs) are predicated by plant states, and human actions influence the plant. In other words, plant operations are necessarily recursive, and it becomes challenging to model complex human-plant interactions. Consequently, we have linked two software simulations that complement those shortcomings. RELAP5-3D—the Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program (RELAP; Aumiller, Tomlinson, and Bauer 2001) is the foundational thermal-hydraulic software used to model nuclear systems. Using RELAP5-3D, we have simulated the plant operations proceeding according to procedures developed to address emergent situations in NPPs. Plant operations include various actions such as the operator checking plant parameters, as well as actions that are continuously performed over time until a specific parameter reaches certain criteria. That means that HUNTER and RELAP5-3D exchange information with each other and should be carried out simultaneously over time. To simulate plant operations, which represent the actual operator checks of plant parameters and corresponding manual control actions, changes in plant status are identified through simulation and performed according to the criteria and order of the procedure. Thus, the goal of coupling HUNTER with RELAP5-3D is to facilitate synchronous coupling, where human and plant models provide iterative feedback loops that drive the course of actions. The advantage of coupling with RELAP5-3D to serve as the external environment module in HUNTER is the ability to customize the plant model and streamline for particular model applications. In this paper, we will address the key features of the coupling and the coupling structure built to perform the feedback loops.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

X-33 Integrated Test facility, Extended Range Simulation

In support of the X-33 Single Stage To Orbit program, NASA Dryden Flight Research Center was selected to provide continuous communications coverage of the X-33 vehicle from launch, through landing at Malmstrom Air Force Base, Montana and Michaels Army Air Field, Utah. An extensive real-time range simulation capability is being developed to ensure successful communications with the autonomous X-33 vehicle. This paper will provide an overview of the various levels of simulation being developed to support the X-33 extended range subsystems. These subsystems include the Flight Termination System, L-Band command uplink subsystem and the S-Band telemetry downlink subsystem. In addition, the radar model developed provides continuous azimuth, elevation and range information based on the flight trajectory. The Dynamic Ground Station Analysis model developed by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, calculate the received signal strength at each ground station. This model takes into consideration Radio Frequency (RF) link parameters such as frequency, antenna gain, space loss, plasma effects and the vehicle's position and attitude at any point in time during the flight path. All three RF links are then attenuated based on this calculated level and the RF signals are sent into telemetry receivers to emulate remote sites, or the power incident on the vehicle from uplinked signals. The best source received telemetry data is then passed back to the Launch and Mission Control Monitoring System (LMCMS) resident in the Operations Control Center. The LMCMS also provides the range simulation system the uplink command combined with differential GPS corrections. Later stages will require the progressive integration of actual range hardware with this simulation effort, leading to communication between telemetry, uplink and FTS antennas at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center, with vehicle antennas mounted on the Walter C. Williams Research Aircraft Integration Facility (RAIF). Decommutated Pulse Code Modulated (PCM) data is displayed on one of the four monitors that comprise the Range Safety Officer's (RSO) station. Also displayed are instantaneous impact prediction models, and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) data for notification of other traffic in the area. Aside from initiating the flight termination command and validating communication links, the RSO station with the range simulation will be used to provide both range control and range safety officers training. The training is necessary to perform their respective functions with greater levels of confidence prior to first flight.

Sharma, Ashley↗

Integrated Simulation Design Challenges to Support TPS Repair Operations

During the Orbiter Repair Maneuver (ORM) operations planned for Return to Flight (RTF), the Shuttle Remote Manipulator System (SRMS) must grapple the International Space Station (ISS), undock the Orbiter, maneuver it through a long duration trajectory, and orient it to an EVA crewman poised at the end of the Space Station Remote Manipulator System (SSRMS) to facilitate the repair of the Thermal Protection System (TPS). Once repair has been completed and confirmed, then the SRMS proceeds back through the trajectory to dock the Orbiter to the Orbiter Docking System. In order to support analysis of the complex dynamic interactions of the integrated system formed by the Orbiter, ISS, SRMS, and SSMS during the ORM, simulation tools used for previous ‘nominal’ mission support required substantial enhancements. These upgrades were necessary to provide analysts with the capabilities needed to study integrated system performance. Prevalent throughout this ORM operation is a dynamically varying topology. In other words, the ORM starts with the SRMS grappled to the mated Shuttle/ISS stack (closed loop topology), moves to an open loop chain topology consisting of the Shuttle, SRMS, and ISS, and then, at the repair configuration, extends the chain topology to one consisting of the Shuttle, SMS, ISS, and SSRMS/EVA crewman. The resulting long dynamic chain of vehicles and manipulators may exhibit significant motion between the Shuttle worksite and the EVA crewman due to the system flexibility throughout the topology (particularly within the SRMS/SSRMS joints and links). Since the attachment points of both manipulators span the flexible structure of the ISS, simulation analysis may also need to take that into consideration. Moreover, due to the lengthy time duration associated with the maneuver and repair, orbital effects become a factor and require the ISS vehicle control system to maintain active attitude control. Several facets of the ORM operation make the associated analytical efforts different from previous mission support, including: (1) the magnitude of the SRMS handled payload (Le., Orbiter class), (2) the orbital effects induced on the integrated system consisting of the large Shuttle and ISS masses connected by a light flexible SRMS, (3) long duration environmental consequences due to the lengthy operational times associated with the maneuver and repair of the TPS, (4) active attitude control (as opposed to free drift) interacting with the SRMS and SSRMS manipulators (also due to the length of the maneuver and repair), (5) relative dynamics between the EVA crewman and thc worksite influenced by the extended flexible topology. In order to meet these analysis challenges, an ORM simulation architecture was developed leveraging upon numerous pre-existing simulation elements to analyze the various subsystems individually. For example, core manipulator subsystem simulations for both the SRMS and SSRMS were originally combined to provide the dual-arm dynamics topology simulation (in the absence of orbital dynamics and vehicle control). This capability was later merged with the simulation used to analyze SRMS loading with a heavy payload in the orbital environment with an active payload control system (in this case, the ISS Attitude Control System (ACS)), configured for the ORM. The resulting worksite dynamics simulation, based off of the modified ORM simulation, provided the extended topological chain of vehicles and manipulators, while taking into account the orbital effects of both the Shuttle and ISS (as well as its ACS). Verification and validation (V&V) of these integrated simulations became a challenge in itself. A systematic approach needed to be developed such that integration simulation results could be tested against previous constituent simulations upon which these simulations were built. General V&V categories included: (1) core orbital state propagation, (2), stand-alone SRMS, (3) stand-alone SSRMS, (4) stand-alone ISS ACS, (5) integrated Shuttle, SRMS, ISS (with active ACS) in the orbital environment, and (5) dual-arm SRMS/SSRMS dynamics topology. Integrated simulation V&V run suites were created and correlated to verification runs from subsystem simulations, in order to establish the validity of the results. This paper discusses the simulation design challenges encountered while developing simulation capabilities to mirror the ORM operations. The paper also describes the incremental build approach that was utilized, starting with the subsystem simulation elements and integration into increasing more complex simulations until the resulting ORM worksite dynamics simulation had been assembled. Furthermore, the paper presents an overall integrated simulation V&V methodology based upon a subsystem level testing, integrated comparisons, and phased checkout.

Thermal Protection System↗

Application and use of Multi Body Dynamic Simulations for In Space Mechanisms

The Thermal and Mechanical Analysis Branch of the Space System Department (ES22) is actively growing and expanding a new mechanical analysis capability. In recent years, there has been an increase in the demand for Multi Body Dynamics (MBD) analysis to support small ESPA ring size spacecraft, cubesats, lunar surface operations and large spacecraft with complex operations or deployables. Requirements can be balanced for both needs to ensure mechanism is verified for launch. Multi-body dynamics is the study of multiple rigid or flexible bodies that are linked together or are in contact and the associated kinematics and dynamics of the system. The typical outputs include performance information, loads, and deflections of mechanical systems. They routinely support the development of robotic mechanisms, deployment mechanisms, landing simulations, control systems, and conops planning.

Multi Body Dynamics Analysis↗

Advanced Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification for Flight Dynamics; Interim Results and Challenges

As part of the NASA Vehicle Systems Safety Technologies (VSST), Assuring Safe and Effective Aircraft Control Under Hazardous Conditions (Technical Challenge #3), an effort is underway within Boeing Research and Technology (BR&T) to address Advanced Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification for Flight Dynamics (VSST1-7). The scope of the effort is to develop and evaluate advanced multidisciplinary flight dynamics modeling techniques, including integrated uncertainties, to facilitate higher fidelity response characterization of current and future aircraft configurations approaching and during loss-of-control conditions. This approach is to incorporate multiple flight dynamics modeling methods for aerodynamics, structures, and propulsion, including experimental, computational, and analytical. Also to be included are techniques for data integration and uncertainty characterization and quantification. This research shall introduce new and updated multidisciplinary modeling and simulation technologies designed to improve the ability to characterize airplane response in off-nominal flight conditions. The research shall also introduce new techniques for uncertainty modeling that will provide a unified database model comprised of multiple sources, as well as an uncertainty bounds database for each data source such that a full vehicle uncertainty analysis is possible even when approaching or beyond Loss of Control boundaries. Methodologies developed as part of this research shall be instrumental in predicting and mitigating loss of control precursors and events directly linked to causal and contributing factors, such as stall, failures, damage, or icing. The tasks will include utilizing the BR&T Water Tunnel to collect static and dynamic data to be compared to the GTM extended WT database, characterizing flight dynamics in off-nominal conditions, developing tools for structural load estimation under dynamic conditions, devising methods for integrating various modeling elements into a real-time simulation capability, generating techniques for uncertainty modeling that draw data from multiple modeling sources, and providing a unified database model that includes nominal plus increments for each flight condition. This paper presents status of testing in the BR&T water tunnel and analysis of the resulting data and efforts to characterize these data using alternative modeling methods. Program challenges and issues are also presented.

Hyde, David C.↗

Interfaces for high-speed fiber-optic links - Analysis and experiment

An analysis of directly and externally modulated fiberoptic links is presented. The theoretical analysis is based on the signal flow diagram of the interface circuits to the laser diode, Mach-Zehnder electro-optic modulator, and p-i-n photodiode. System parameters such as gain, noise figure, two-tone intermodulation distortion, and spurious free and compression dynamic range are expressed as a function of frequency and operating point of the laser and external modulator. Two directly and externally modulated fiber-optic links were designed and fabricated to verify the analytical models. The direct modulation FO link was developed at the Ku-band (11.6-12.4 GHz), whereas the external modulation link was at L-band (875-925 MHz). Spurious-free dynamic ranges of 95.8 dB-Hz exp 2/3 and 113 dB-Hz exp 2/3, respectively, were achieved. The predictions based on the analytical models match the measured results.

Daryoush, Afshin S.↗

Segmental Dynamics and Vitrification in Associating Copolymer Melts: Role of Cluster Formation, Microdomains, and Cross-Linking

A microscopic statistical mechanical theory of the structure, self-assembly, and activated segmental relaxation is employed to study associating copolymer melts with high attractive sticker fractions, local clustering, and disordered microphase ordering. The stickers are dynamically pinned in a manner that does not affect equilibrium structure which mimics the much slower physical bond breaking process or postassembly cross-linking of sticky monomers. Local sticker clustering and microdomain spatial correlations significantly modify the activated relaxation of nonstickers and glass transition temperature, T g . A re-entrant glass-melting feature is predicted as sticker attraction strength is initially increased corresponding to a speed up of segmental relaxation, and hence reduction of T g relative to the cross-linked homopolymer network. A mechanistic analysis reveals three competing effects: a purely kinetic slowing down of nonstickers down due to cross-linking, disordering of the nonsticker local cage and weakening of effective forces they experience due to sticker physical clustering, and a longer range impact of microdomain scale correlations that results in nonmonotonic dynamical effects. At high enough attraction strength, a qualitative change emerges corresponding to a sticker fraction dependent elevation of T g , which eventually surpasses that of the cross-linked homopolymer network. Dynamically, the new physics arises from a complex evolution of the amplitude of the collective elastic field that dresses the large amplitude mobile segment hopping within a coupled local-nonlocal description of the alpha relaxation. Furthermore, the results are qualitatively consistent with recent experiments on associating PDMS and PPG telechelics of fixed sticker fraction but with chemically different end groups of variable attraction strengths. Finally, possible tests using simulation and the influence of material or model specific interaction potentials and other real world complications are discussed.

Copolymers↗

Low-abundance populations distinguish microbiome performance in plant cell wall deconstruction

Abstract Background Plant cell walls are interwoven structures recalcitrant to degradation. Native and adapted microbiomes can be particularly effective at plant cell wall deconstruction. Although most understanding of biological cell wall deconstruction has been obtained from isolates, cultivated microbiomes that break down cell walls have emerged as new sources for biotechnologically relevant microbes and enzymes. These microbiomes provide a unique resource to identify key interacting functional microbial groups and to guide the design of specialized synthetic microbial communities. Results To establish a system assessing comparative microbiome performance, parallel microbiomes were cultivated on sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) from compost inocula. Biomass loss and biochemical assays indicated that these microbiomes diverged in their ability to deconstruct biomass. Network reconstructions from gene expression dynamics identified key groups and potential interactions within the adapted sorghum-degrading communities, including Actinotalea , Filomicrobium , and Gemmatimonadetes populations. Functional analysis demonstrated that the microbiomes proceeded through successive stages that are linked to enzymes that deconstruct plant cell wall polymers. The combination of network and functional analysis highlighted the importance of cellulose-degrading Actinobacteria in differentiating the performance of these microbiomes. Conclusions The two-tier cultivation of compost-derived microbiomes on sorghum led to the establishment of microbiomes for which community structure and performance could be assessed. The work reinforces the observation that subtle differences in community composition and the genomic content of strains may lead to significant differences in community performance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Atmospheric Transport and Photochemistry of Ozone Over Central Southern Africa During the Southern Africa Fire-Atmosphere Research Initiative

Vertically integrated back and forward trajectories for the 300-200, 700-500 and surface-800 hPa levels are calculated using Pretoria as point of origin for the Southern Africa Fire-Atmosphere Research Initiative (SAFARI) period September-October 1992. The transport fields are then combined to show both horizontal and vertical transport of air to and from Pretoria at the different levels. Air transport patterns in the vertical are linked to the occurrence of absolutely stable layers which are also evident in the 16 ozonesonde profiles recorded at Pretoria during SAFARI. The coherence of the stratification based on dynamical and ozone analysis permits the use of mean ozone profiles with air volume fluxes to interpret the ozone in terms of photochemistry and transport within stable layers. Extensive recirculation across the meridional plane at Pretoria implies that advection of ozone is slow and that photochemistry is responsible for the observed vertical structure over central southern Africa in September and October 1992. Requisite ozone formation rates are supported by model analysis of ozone and ozone precursors measured from SAFARI and Transport and Atmospheric Research Chemistry near the Equator-Atlantic aircraft.

Tyson, P. D.↗

Development and Implementation of Dynamic Scripts to Execute Cycled GSI/WRF Forecasts

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction (NWP) model and Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation (DA) are the operational systems that make up the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model and the NAM Data Assimilation System (NDAS) analysis used by National Weather Service forecasters. The Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) manages and distributes the code for the WRF and GSI, but it is up to individual researchers to link the systems together and write scripts to run the systems, which can take considerable time for those not familiar with the code. The objective of this project is to develop and disseminate a set of dynamic scripts that mimic the unique cycling configuration of the operational NAM to enable researchers to develop new modeling and data assimilation techniques that can be easily transferred to operations. The current version of the SPoRT GSI/WRF Scripts (v3.0.1) is compatible with WRF v3.3 and GSI v3.0.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗