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At least 109 records · Page 6

JANNAF Lessons Learned Panel Discussion

The difference between the AS-510 observed and predicted separation distance is attributed to a greater F-1 engine "tail off" impulse than that used in the separation distance prediction. . The F-1 thrust decay was normal and not appreciably different from previous (AS-505 through 509) flights. . Analysis indicates that with an S-IC stage having only four retro motors, failure of one retro motor to ignite would result in marginal separation distances and, in the 3-sigma case, re-contact of the two stages. . S-IC-11 and subsequent flight stages were equipped with eight retro motors rather than the planned four.

Richards, Steve↗

Pilot-in-the-Loop Analysis of Propulsive-Only Flight Control Systems

Longitudinal control system architectures are presented which directly couple flight stick motions to throttle commands for a multi-engine aircraft. This coupling enables positive attitude control with complete failure of the flight control system. The architectures chosen vary from simple feedback gains to classical lead-lag compensators with and without prefilters. Each architecture is reviewed for its appropriateness for piloted flight. The control systems are then analyzed with pilot-in-the-loop metrics related to bandwidth required for landing. Results indicate that current and proposed bandwidth requirements should be modified for throttles only flight control. Pilot ratings consistently showed better ratings than predicted by analysis. Recommendations are made for more robust design and implementation. The use of Quantitative Feedback Theory for compensator design is discussed. Although simple and effective augmented control can be achieved in a wide variety of failed configurations, a few configuration characteristics are dominant for pilot-in-the-loop control. These characteristics will be tested in a simulator study involving failed flight controls for a multi-engine aircraft.

Chou, Hwei-Lan↗

Substation Secondary Asset Health Monitoring and Management System (SSHM)

Electric Power Group, LLC (EPG) was awarded DOE OE0000850 to design, develop, and demonstrate a real-time software application for substation secondary equipment health monitoring and management at host utility American Electric Power (AEP), a cost share partner. This project addresses the need for monitoring substation equipment health and providing operators with tools to identify and take pre-emptive action to avoid catastrophic equipment failure. By monitoring synchrophasor data in real time, data anomalies that indicate potential asset failure can be detected and alerts can be sent to operators in time to take corrective actions. EPG developed two data driven algorithms to identify abnormal equipment signature patterns as well as a method using substation linear state estimation (SLSE). The software has been deployed on hardened PC’s and tested and validated for cost share partner AEP’s substations - 138kV and 765 kV. The SSHM software has been accepted by AEP and final demonstration of DOE - OE0000850 for AEP and DOE was successfully completed on March 17th, 2020. EPG developed the Substation Secondary Asset Health Monitoring (SSHM) Platform to analyze equipment failure signatures in PMU data and alert substation personnel when pre-emptive inspection, repairs and other actions are warranted to prevent potential catastrophic failures. This is the first system that automatically monitors the health of substation secondary assets and alerts users to emerging failures using synchrophasor measurements. SSHM uses high resolution PMU data from PTs, CTs, and CCVTs to analyze equipment signatures and identify anomalies that are precursor indicators of potential equipment failure. When an anomaly is detected, there is a likelihood of potential failure of monitored equipment, the system alerts the user with visual alarms including alarm trend charts and indicator lights on a oneline diagram of the substation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Method and Model to Predict Initial Failure Rates

It has long been well known that actual system reliability typically falls well short of early estimates. Failure rates are often ten or more times higher than anticipated. Many reasons have been given for this, but over-optimism is the fundamental cause of too-favorable reliability predictions. Most forecasts of reliability are essentially best-case scenarios, as are predictions of budget and schedule. Confident engineers assemble estimates bottom-up, including the known factors and ignoring problems that they hope won’t happen. Traditional reliability estimation is based on simply summing up the component failure rates. This ignores most actual failure causes. The way to reduce over-optimism is to use the historical system level failure rate from similar projects. Adjustments should not be made based purely on engineering judgment, but only if there is so logical quantitative justification. The traditional component-based reliability estimate is useful as a lower bound on the system failure rate. The difference between this lower bound component-based reliability and the historical system level reliability indicates how much of the total failure rate is due to system level problems rather than component failures.

Jones, Harry W.↗

A Method and Model to Predict Initial Failure Rates

It has long been well known that actual system reliability typically falls well short of early estimates. Failure rates are often ten or more times higher than anticipated. Many reasons have been given for this, but over-optimism is the fundamental cause of too-favorable reliability predictions. Most forecasts of reliability are essentially best-case scenarios, as are predictions of budget and schedule. Confident engineers assemble estimates bottom-up, including the known factors and ignoring problems that they hope won't happen. Traditional reliability estimation is based on simply summing up the component failure rates. This ignores most actual failure causes. The way to reduce over-optimism is to use the historical system level failure rate from similar projects. Adjustments should not be made based purely on engineering judgment, but only if there is so logical quantitative justification. The traditional component-based reliability estimate is useful as a lower bound on the system failure rate. The difference between this lower bound component-based reliability and the historical system level reliability indicates how much of the total failure rate is due to system level problems rather than component failures

Jones, Harry W.↗

Viscoplastic analysis of an experimental cylindrical thrust chamber liner

A viscoplastic stress-strain analysis of an experimental cylindrical thrust chamber is presented. A viscoelastic constitutive model incorporating a single internal state variable that represents kinematic hardening was employed to investigate whether such a viscoplastic model could predict the experimentally observed behavior of the thrust chamber. Two types of loading cycles were considered: a short cycle of 3.5-s duration that corresponded to the experiments, and an extended loading cycle of 485.1 s duration that is typical of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) operating cycle. The analysis qualitatively replicated the deformation behavior of the component as observed in experiments designed to simulate SSME operating conditions. The analysis also showed that the mode and location of failure in the component may depend on the loading cycle. The results indicate that using viscoplastic models for structural analysis can lead to a more realistic life assessment of thrust chambers.

Arya, Vinod K.↗

Applying the System Complexity Metric (SCM)

A fundamental cause of difficulty in larger engineering projects is their inherent complexity. An impression of complexity occurs if a system is simply difficult to understand, so that there is no obvious mental model that correctly predicts its behavior. Higher complexity is usually associated with higher cost and higher failure rate. Complexity is indicated by a system having more and diverse components, multiple interactions and feedback loops, transients and dynamic behavior, and often the emergence of unanticipated failure modes. Identifying and removing these signs of complexity should reduce complexity and improve performance. Here we limit complexity measurement to the number of components and their interactions. A System Complexity Metric (SCM) is defined as equal to the sum of the number of parts in a system, N, plus the sum of the one-way interconnections between them, I. SCM = N + I. The SCM is easily determined by direct inspection of system block diagrams. Previous work found that life support system cost was directly proportional to SCM and that failure rate increased faster than SCM squared. SCM can be used to compare systems or to guide their redesign to reduce cost and failure rate. Carbon dioxide removal systems will be analyzed using SCM, cost, and failure rate.

Harry W Jones↗

Improved impact-resistant boron/aluminum composites for use as turbine engine fan blades

Thin-sheet Charpy and Izod impact tests and standard full-size Charpy impact tests were conducted on unidirectional and angleply composites containing 4, 5.6 and 8 mil boron in 1100, 2024, 5052 and 6061 Al matrices. Impact failure modes of B/Al are proposed to describe the mechanisms involved and to provide insight for maximizing impact resistance. The impact strength of B/Al was significantly increased by proper selection of materials and processing. The use of more ductile matrices and larger diameter boron fibers gave the highest impact strengths by allowing matrix shear deformation and multiple fiber breakage. Pendulum impact test results of improved B/Al were higher than notched titanium and indicate sufficient foreign object damage protection to warrant consideration of B/Al for application to fan blades in aircraft gas turbine engines.

Mcdanels, D. L.↗

X-57 Cockpit Interface Control Document (ICD-CEPT-006)

The Cockpit Interface Control Document defines the hardware interfaces between the X-57 cockpit and subsystems. It provides locational and operational information in support of ground and flight operations with details on controls and displays that include Modes of Operation, Start-Up and Shut- Down Sequence diagrams and captures the current state of the MOD II Avionics Power Architecture. There is also preliminary information of the MOD III and MOD IV configurations. Microsoft PowerPoint was chosen for the document as early development required frequent meetings with multiple customers including aircraft operators (pilots), ground operations, support contractors and power, instrumentation, and human systems integration engineers and PowerPoint enabled presentations that could be quickly modified based on customer and developer interaction. One of the driving requirements for the cockpit design was to keep the left side panel as close the stock Tecnam panel as possible to reduce the failure risk of flight critical indicators. The original annunciator panel in the left side panel was modified to alert the pilot to failures in critical X-57 subsystems and an operator audio alert capability was added for these subsystems. Power-Up switches for the aircraft low voltage 13.8 VDC systems are located at the bottom of the left side panel and center panel, the same location as the stock Tecnam 13.8 VDC switches. The switches for energizing the high voltage system were located in the overhead panel to reduce the risk of inadvertently energizing the high voltage system during the low voltage power-up sequence. The Cruise Motor ARM switches were also located in the overhead panel and correspond to the same location as the stock Tecnam ignition switches. The stock Tecnam throttle levers and prop pitch levers were retained for the X-57. The throttle levers were renamed torque levers since they controlled the commanded torque to the cruise motors. The prop pitch levers provide a commanded RPM signal to an electronic prop pitch controller. X-57 specific displays, located in the right-side panel, are driven by dedicated sensors that monitor right and left side cruise motor RPM, right and left high voltage “Traction Bus” A and B (voltage, current and power) and the Avionics Bus DC converters (A and B) voltage and current. An X-57 Multi-Function Display (MFD) located in the center panel displays CAN Bus parameters. CAN Bus architecture is not certified for flight so these displays could not be used for safety critical information but were designed to be used for test point information only.

Laura Kushner↗

Saving Skylab

Initial difficulties encountered with the launch and operational deployment of the Skylab vehicle are described in terms of early indications of hardware failures, ground-based efforts at diagnosing the nature and significance of damage, and organization of improvized means and procedures for repair operations. Attention is given to heating and power-supply problems stemming from the loss of a micrometeoroid shield and a solar cell array. Systems engineering problems arising from the necessity of achieving a compromise among thermal, electrical, and stabilization requirements are explained, and repair solutions and operations in space and on the ground are described in detail.-

Schneider, W. C.↗

A model for the Space Shuttle Main Engine High Pressure Oxidizer Turbopump shaft seal system

A model of the High Pressure Oxidizer Turbopump (HPOTP) shaft seal system on the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) is described. The model predicts the fluid properties and flow rates throughout this system for a number of conditions simulating failed seals. The results agree well with qualitative expectations and redline values but cannot be verified with actual data due to the lack thereof. The results indicate that each failure mode results in a unique distribution of properties throughout the seal system and can therefore be individually identified given the proper instrumentation. Furthermore, the detection process can be built on the principle of qualitative reasoning without the use of exact fluid property values. A simplified implementation of the model which does not include the slinger/labyrinth seal combination has been developed and will be useful for inclusion in a real-time diagnostic system.

Paxson, Daniel E.↗

Hungary 908 Event - Risk Based Graded Approach to ITM

This presentation, Risk-Based, Graded Approach to Insider Threat Mitigation: Human Measures, introduces a structured framework for managing insider threat risk using internationally recognized guidance from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Nuclear Security Series No. 8-G (Rev. 1) and the Joint Statement on Mitigating Insider Threats (INFCIRC/908). The presentation emphasizes that effective insider threat mitigation (ITM) depends on both positional controls, which manage inherent risk based on access, authority, and knowledge, and human measures, which address residual risk reflected in behavior, motivation, and reliability. Using a risk-informed and graded approach, the presentation outlines methods for identifying and prioritizing high-risk positions, applying layered organizational controls, and integrating human reliability mechanisms such as the Behavior Observation Program (BOP), Fitness-for-Duty (FFD) evaluations, Employee Assistance Programs (EAP), and Nuclear Security Culture (NSC). The human-focused portion examines behavioral and organizational indicators of opportunity, vulnerability, motivation, and crisis, demonstrating how early detection, deterrence, and response can prevent insider events. The session concludes with a case review of the Millstone Nuclear Power Station incident involving engineer George Galatis. The case illustrates how weak leadership and a poor safety culture can create conditions for failure and how a comprehensive ITM framework could have altered the outcome. The objective of this presentation is to help practitioners apply a risk-based, graded philosophy to human factors and promote a culture of accountability, communication, and resilience within nuclear organizations.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Practical Application of PRA as an Integrated Design Tool for Space Systems

This paper presents the application of the first comprehensive Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) during the design phase of a joint NASA/NOAA weather satellite program, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Series R (GOES-R). GOES-R is the next generation weather satellite primarily to help understand the weather and help save human lives. PRA has been used at NASA for Human Space Flight for many years. PRA was initially adopted and implemented in the operational phase of manned space flight programs and more recently for the next generation human space systems. Since its first use at NASA, PRA has become recognized throughout the Agency as a method of assessing complex mission risks as part of an overall approach to assuring safety and mission success throughout project lifecycles. PRA is now included as a requirement during the design phase of both NASA next generation manned space vehicles as well as for high priority robotic missions. The influence of PRA on GOES-R design and operation concepts are discussed in detail. The GOES-R PRA is unique at NASA for its early implementation. It also represents a pioneering effort to integrate risks from both Spacecraft (SC) and Ground Segment (GS) to fully assess the probability of achieving mission objectives. PRA analysts were actively involved in system engineering and design engineering to ensure that a comprehensive set of technical risks were correctly identified and properly understood from a design and operations perspective. The analysis included an assessment of SC hardware and software, SC fault management system, GS hardware and software, common cause failures, human error, natural hazards, solar weather and infrastructure (such as network and telecommunications failures, fire). PRA findings directly resulted in design changes to reduce SC risk from micro-meteoroids. PRA results also led to design changes in several SC subsystems, e.g. propulsion, guidance, navigation and control (GNC), communications, mechanisms, and command and data handling (C&DH). The fault tree approach assisted in the development of the fault management system design. Human error analysis, which examined human response to failure, indicated areas where automation could reduce the overall probability of gaps in operation by half. In addition, the PRA brought to light many potential root causes of system disruptions, including earthquakes, inclement weather, solar storms, blackouts and other extreme conditions not considered in the typical reliability and availability analyses. Ultimately the PRA served to identify potential failures that, when mitigated, resulted in a more robust design, as well as to influence the program's concept of operations. The early and active integration of PRA with system and design engineering provided a well-managed approach for risk assessment that increased reliability and availability, optimized lifecyc1e costs, and unified the SC and GS developments.

Kalia, Prince↗

Understanding Microstructural Effects on Dynamic Performance Towards the Development of Shock Metamaterials

With the recent advances in additive manufacturing (AM), long-range periodic lattice assemblies are being developed for vibration and shock mitigation components in aerospace and military applications with unique geometric and topological structures. There has been extensive work in understanding the static properties associated with varying topology of these lattice architectures, but there is almost no understanding of microstructural affects in such structures under high-strain rate dynamic loading conditions. Here we report the shock behavior of lattices with varying intrinsic grain structures achieved by post process annealing. High resolution 316L stainless steel lattices were 3D printed by a laser-powder bed fusion machine and characterized by computed tomography. Subsequent annealing resulted in stress-relieved and recrystallized lattices. Overall the lattices had strong cubic texture aligning with the x-, y- and z-directions of the build with a preference outside the build direction (z). The recrystallized sample had more equiaxed polygonal grains and a layer of BCC ferrite at the surface of the structure approximately 1 grain thick. Upon dynamic compression the as-deposited lattice showed steady compaction behavior while the heat-treated lattices exhibit negative velocity behavior indicative of failure. We attribute this to the stiffer BCC ferrite in the annealed lattices becoming damaged and fragmenting during compression.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Strength and deformation properties of basaltic lava flows on planetary surfaces

Basaltic rocks are thought to constitute a volumetrically significant rock type on the Moon, Mercury, Mars, and Venus, in addition to the Earth. Spacecraft images of surfaces with known or suspected basaltic composition on these bodies, particularly on Venus, indicate that these rocks have been deformed in the brittle regime to form faults and perhaps dilatant cracks, in addition to folding and more distributed types of deformation. Predictions of brittle fracture or other types of deformation are made by comparing calculated stresses from a tectonic model to some criterion for rock strength. Common strength criteria used in the planetary science literature for near-surface deformation include a Griffith tensile-strength criterion for intact rock, a Mohr envelope for intact basalt, and a brittle strength envelope based on Byerlee's law of rock frictional resistance. However, planetary terrains of basaltic composition consist of much more than just intact basaltic rock. The aggregate basaltic material, termed the 'rock mass,' consists of both the intact rock and the associated fracture, faults, lithologic contacts, and other discontinuous surfaces. A basaltic rock mass is the relevant material for which strength properties must be defined and calculated model stresses must be compared to in order to more accurately predict brittle deformation. For example, the various strengths of a rock mass are less than that of intact material of the same composition. This means that tectonic models which compare stresses to intact failure strengths overestimate the stresses required for fracture and so underestimate the extent and magnitude of brittle deformation predicted in these models. On the other hand, rock mass shear strength can be greater than that predicted from Byerlee's law. The concept of rock mass strength is central to many engineering design studies in which calculated stresses are used to predict brittle fracture, and this experience indicates that brittle strength envelopes which assume properties for intact rock (Griffith parabolas) or sliding along a single, continuous surface (Byerlee's law) inadequately characterize the tensile, compressive, and shear strengths of rock masses. The criterion adopted here to relate stresses to rock mass fracture is based on a Griffith-type curve for tensile normal stress and a concave downward curve for compressive normal stress. It is the only available criterion that explicitly considers the weakening effects of discontinuities within the rock mass on the stress state required for fracture.

Schultz, Richard A.↗

The X-43 Fin Actuation System Problem - Reliability in Shades of Gray

Following the loss of the first X-43 during launch, the mishap investigation board indicated the Fin Actuator System (FAS) needed to have a larger torque margin. To supply this added torque, a second actuator was added. The consequences of what seemed to be a simple modification would trouble the X-43 program. Because of the second actuator, a new computer board was required. This proved to be subject to electronic noise. This resulted in the actuator latch up in ground tests of the FAS for the second launch. Such a latch up would cause the Pegasus booster to fail, as the FAS was a single string system. The problem was corrected and the second flight was successful. The same modifications were added to the FAS for flight three. When the FAS underwent ground tests, it also latched up. The failure indicated that each computer board had a different tolerance to electronic noise. The problem with the FAS was corrected. Subsequently, another failure occurred, raising questions about the design, and the probability of failure for the X-43 Mach 10 flight. This was not simply a technical issue, but illuminated the difficulties facing both managers and engineers in assessing risk, design requirements, and probabilities in cutting edge aerospace projects.

Peebles, Curtis↗

A Method for Calculating the Probability of Successfully Completing a Rocket Propulsion Ground Test

Propulsion ground test facilities face the daily challenges of scheduling multiple customers into limited facility space and successfully completing their propulsion test projects. Due to budgetary and schedule constraints, NASA and industry customers are pushing to test more components, for less money, in a shorter period of time. As these new rocket engine component test programs are undertaken, the lack of technology maturity in the test articles, combined with pushing the test facilities capabilities to their limits, tends to lead to an increase in facility breakdowns and unsuccessful tests. Over the last five years Stennis Space Center's propulsion test facilities have performed hundreds of tests, collected thousands of seconds of test data, and broken numerous test facility and test article parts. While various initiatives have been implemented to provide better propulsion test techniques and improve the quality, reliability, and maintainability of goods and parts used in the propulsion test facilities, unexpected failures during testing still occur quite regularly due to the harsh environment in which the propulsion test facilities operate. Previous attempts at modeling the lifecycle of a propulsion component test project have met with little success. Each of the attempts suffered form incomplete or inconsistent data on which to base the models. By focusing on the actual test phase of the tests project rather than the formulation, design or construction phases of the test project, the quality and quantity of available data increases dramatically. A logistic regression model has been developed form the data collected over the last five years, allowing the probability of successfully completing a rocket propulsion component test to be calculated. A logistic regression model is a mathematical modeling approach that can be used to describe the relationship of several independent predictor variables X(sub 1), X(sub 2),..,X(sub k) to a binary or dichotomous dependent variable Y, where Y can only be one of two possible outcomes, in this case Success or Failure. Logistic regression has primarily been used in the fields of epidemiology and biomedical research, but lends itself to many other applications. As indicated the use of logistic regression is not new, however, modeling propulsion ground test facilities using logistic regression is both a new and unique application of the statistical technique. Results from the models provide project managers with insight and confidence into the affectivity of rocket engine component ground test projects. The initial success in modeling rocket propulsion ground test projects clears the way for more complex models to be developed in this area.

Messer, Bradley P.↗

Testing and analysis of flat and curved panels with multiple cracks

An experimental and analytical investigation of multiple cracking in various types of test specimens is described in this paper. The testing phase is comprised of a flat unstiffened panel series and curved stiffened and unstiffened panel series. The test specimens contained various configurations for initial damage. Static loading was applied to these specimens until ultimate failure, while loads and crack propagation were recorded. This data provides the basis for developing and validating methodologies for predicting linkup of multiple cracks, progression to failure, and overall residual strength. The results from twelve flat coupon and ten full scale curved panel tests are presented. In addition, an engineering analysis procedure was developed to predict multiple crack linkup. Reasonable agreement was found between predictions and actual test results for linkup and residual strength for both flat and curved panels. The results indicate that an engineering analysis approach has the potential to quantitatively assess the effect of multiple cracks in the arrest capability of an aircraft fuselage structure.

Broek, David↗