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Postseismic Deformation after the 1964 Great Alaskan Earthquake: Collaborative Research with Goddard Space Flight Center

The purpose of this project was to carry out GPS observations on the Kenai Peninsula, southern Alaska, in order to study the postseismic and contemporary deformation following the 1964 Alaska earthquake. All of the research supported in this grant was carried out in collaboration with Dr. Steven Cohen of Goddard Space Flight Center. The research funding from this grant primarily supported GPS fieldwork, along with the acquisition of computer equipment to allow analysis and modeling of the GPS data. A minor amount of salary support was provided by the PI, but the great majority of the salary support was provided by the Geophysical Institute. After the expiration of this grant, additional funding was obtained from the National Science Foundation to continue the work. This grant supported GPS field campaigns in August 1995, June 1996, May-June and September 1997, and May-June 1998. We initially began the work by surveying leveling benchmarks on the Kenai peninsula that had been surveyed after the 1964 earthquake. Changes in height from the 1964 leveling data to the 1995+ GPS data, corrected for the geoid-ellipsoid separation, give the total elevation change since the earthquake. Beginning in 1995, we also identified or established sites that were suitable for long-term surveying using GPS. In the subsequent annual GPS campaigns, we made regular measurements at these GPS marks, and steadily enhanced our set of points for which cumulative postseismic uplift data were available. From 4 years of Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements, we find significant spatial variations in present-day deformation between the eastern and western Kenai peninsula, Alaska. Sites in the eastern Kenai peninsula and Prince William Sound move to the NNW relative to North America, in the direction of Pacific-North America relative plate motion. Velocities decrease in magnitude from nearly the full plate rate in southern Prince William Sound to about 30 mm/yr at Seward and to about 5 mm/yr near Anchorage. In contrast, sites in the western Kenai peninsula move to the SW, in a nearly trenchward direction, with a velocity of about 20 mm/yr. The data are consistent with the shallow plate interface offshore and beneath the eastern Kenai and Prince William Sound being completely locked or nearly so, with elastic strain accumulation resulting in rapid motion in the direction of relative plate motion of sites in the overriding plate. The velocities of sites in the western Kenai, along strike to the southwest, are opposite in sign with those predicted from elastic strain accumulation. These data are incompatible with a significant locked region in this segment of the plate boundary. Trenchward velocities are found also for some sites in the Anchorage area. We interpret the trenchward velocities as being caused by a continuing postseismic transient from the 1964 great Alaska earthquake.

Freymueller, Jeffrey T.↗

A double Benioff zone beneath the central Aleutians - An unbending of the lithosphere

Seismicity located using the Adak seismograph network shows the Benioff zone below a depth of 100 km consists of two thin zones of earthquakes about 25 km apart that merge at a depth of 175 km. Focal mechanisms in the upper zone are consistently down-dip compression, while those of the lower zone are down-dip tension. An elastic-plastic model of the lithosphere predicts that these two zones reflect the stresses in the elastic core of the lithosphere due to unbending.

Engdahl, E. R.↗

Dislocation model for aseismic crustal deformation at Hollister, California

A model of crustal deformation during the interseismic phase is developed and applied (using the improved Bayesian inversion algorithm described by Jackson and Matsu'ura, 1985) to trilateration data for the USGS Hollister (CA) network. In the model, rigid blocks in motion relative to each other experience friction only in a brittle upper zone, while their ductile lower zones slide freely; the Hollister model comprises five blocks and nine rectangular fault patches. The data and results are presented in tables, graphs, and maps and characterized in detail. The model predicts steady block motion on time scales between 10 yr and 1 Myr, with net motion across the San Andreas/Calaveras fault system 38 + or - 3 mm/yr and brittle/ductile transition depths ranging from 0.4 to 11 km. Two San Andreas segments with higher probabilities of moderate-to-large earthquakes are identified.

Matsuura, Mitsuhiro↗

Crustal deformation and earthquakes

The manner in which the Earth's surface deforms during the cycle of stress accumulation and release along major faults is investigated. In an investigation of the crustal deformation associated with a thin channel asthenosphere displacements are reduced from those computed for a half space asthenosphere. A previous finding by other workers that displacements are enhanced when flow is confined to a thin channel is based on several invalid approximations. The major predictions of the finite element model are that the near field postseismic displacements and strain rates are less than those for a half space asthenosphere and that the postseismic strain rates at intermediate distances are greater (in magnitude). The finite width of the asthenosphere ceases to have a significant impact on the crustal deformation pattern when its magnitude exceeds about three lithosphere thicknesses.

Cohen, S. C.↗

Multiple-Boundary-Condition Vibration Tests

Multiple-boundary-condition testing method technique to improve analysis of vibrations in large structures. Conceived for vibrational testing, in terrestrial environment, of large, complicated three-dimensional structures intended for use in outer space. Objective of such testing, to identify parameters of mathematical models used to predict vibrations of such structures in absence of gravitation and air. Structure supported and/or restrained at several positions; excited at desired vibrational frequencies, and vibrations measured to determine characteristics of vibrational modes. Potential terrestrial uses in testing and evaluation of dynamics of towers and offshore structures and safety of large buildings in Earthquakes.

Kuo, Chin-Po↗

Strong earthquakes, novae and cosmic ray environment

Observations about the relationship between seismic activity and astronomical phenomena are discussed. First, after investigating the seismic data (magnitude 7.0 and over) with the method of superposed epochs it is found that world seismicity evidently increased after the occurring of novae with apparent magnitude brighter than 2.2. Second, a great many earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 and over occurred in the 13th month after two of the largest ground level solar cosmic ray events (GLEs). The causes of three high level phenomena of global seismic activity in 1918-1965 can be related to these, and it is suggested that according to the information of large GLE or bright nova predictions of the times of global intense seismic activity can be made.

Yu, Z. D.↗

Geodetic Measurement of Deformation East of the San Andreas Fault in Central California

Triangulation and trilateration data from two geodetic networks located between the western edge of the Great Valley and the San Andreas fault have been used to calculate shear strain rates in the Diablo Range and to estimate the slip rate along the Calaveras and Paicines faults in Central California. Within the Diablo Range the average shear strain rate was determined for the time period between 1962 and 1982 to be 0.15 + or - 0.08 microrad/yr, with the orientation of the most compressive strain at N 16 deg E + or - 14 deg. The orientation of the principal compressive strain predicted from the azimuth of the major structures in the region is N 25 deg E. It is inferred that the measured strain is due to compression across the folds of this area: the average shear straining corresponds to a relative shortening rate of 4.5 + or - 2.4 mm/yr. From an examination of wellbore breakout orientations and the azimuths of P-axes from earthquake focal mechanisms the inferred orientation of maximum compressive stress was found to be similar to the direction of maximum compressive strain implied by the trend of local fold structures. Results do not support the hypothesis of uniform fault-normal compression within the Coast Ranges. From trilateration measurements made between 1972 and 1987 on lines that are within 10 km of the San Andreas fault, a slip rate of 10 to 12 mm/yr was calculated for the Calaveras-Paicines fault south of Hollister. The slip rate of the Paicines fault decreases to 4 mm/yr near Bitter.

Sauber, Jeanne M.↗

Ionospheric Signature of Surface Mine Blasts from Global Positioning System Measurements

Sources such as atmospheric or buried explosions and shallow earthquakes are known to produce infrasonic pressure waves in the atmosphere. Because of the coupling between neutral particles and electrons at ionospheric altitudes, these acoustic and gravity waves induce variations of the ionospheric electron density. The Global Positioning System (GPS) provides a way of directly measuring the total electron content in the ionosphere and, therefore, of detecting such perturbations in the upper atmosphere. In July and August 1996, three large surface mine blasts (1.5 Kt each) were detonated at the Black Thunder coal mine in eastern Wyoming. As part of a seismic and acoustic monitoring- experiment, we deployed five dual-frequency GPS receivers at distances ranging from 50 to 200 km from the mine and were able to detect the ionospheric perturbation caused by the blasts. The perturbation starts 10 to 15 min after the blast, lasts for about 30 min, and propagates with an apparent horizontal velocity of 1200 meters per second. Its amplitude reaches 3 x 10 (exp 14) el per square meters in the 7-3 min period band, a value close to the ionospheric perturbation caused by the M = 6.7 Northridge earthquake. The small signal-to-noise ratio of the perturbation can be improved by slant-stacking the electron content time-series recorded by the different GPS receivers taking into account the horizontal propagation of the perturbation. The energy of the perturbation is concentrated in the 200 to 300 second period band, a result consistent with previous observations and numerical model predictions. The 300 second band probably corresponds to gravity modes and shorter periods to acoustic modes, respectively. Using a 1-D stratified velocity model of the atmosphere we show that linear acoustic ray tracing fits arrival times at all GPS receivers. We interpret the perturbation as a direct acoustic wave caused by the explosion itself. This study shows that even relatively small subsurface events can produce ionospheric perturbations that are above the detection threshold of the GPS technique. By sensing derivative signals, which can be detected over a relatively broad region, it appears that GPS might be particularly useful for source characterization within the first acoustic quiet zone where infrasound would probably be ineffective. This suggests that dual-frequency GPS monitoring could contribute to Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty verification.

Calais, Eric↗

A Unique Perspective from Space on our Planet: Science, Technologies and Applications

The study of Planet earth is a very complex problem. It has many non-linear and chaotic systems operating in parallel and have interdependencies. In reality, these systems/phenomena s are not well understood or mathematically modeled because of our lack of knowledge of such intricate processes. However, in order to further the subject of Earth as an integrated system, space provides excellent vantage points to look at these processes in multidimensional framework. For example, we can make strives to understand the global water cycle, carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, biomass changes, oceans and solid Earth variations by making multitude of global measurements such as soil moisture, precipitation, tropospheric and stratospheric gases, aerosols, tropospheric winds, ocean salinity, ocean color, vegetation cover, crustal dynamics and many more. Such suites of measurements derive the coupled models so we may predict the changes due to natural and anthropogenic forcing. NASA along with other international space agencies have made tremendous investments in recent years in developing and flying remote sensing space borne sensors to enable these measurements. These science measurements and products are further used to address pressing issues such as coastal zone erosion, air quality, severe weather, water availability and quality, public health, fires, earthquakes, land slides and others for societal benefits. This presentation provides a comprehensive overview of NASA s science investigations, related technologies and satellites/sensors and applications.

Habib, Shaid↗

A new method for monitoring global volcanic activity

The ERTS Data Collection System makes it feasible for the first time to monitor the level of activity at widely separated volcanoes and to relay these data rapidly to one central office for analysis. While prediction of specific eruptions is still an evasive goal, early warning of a reawakening of quiescent volcanoes is now a distinct possibility. A prototypical global volcano surveillance system was established under the ERTS program. Instruments were installed in cooperation with local scientists on 15 volcanoes in Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, California, Iceland, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. The sensors include 19 seismic event counters that count four different sizes of earthquakes and six biaxial borehole tiltmeters that measure ground tilt with a resolution of 1 microradian. Only seismic and tilt data are collected because these have been shown in the past to indicate most reliably the level of volcano activity at many different volcanoes. Furthermore, these parameters can be measured relatively easily with new instrumentation.

Ward, P. L.↗

Excitation study of the Lageos-derived Chandler wobble

Euler (1765) has deduced that any nonspherical rigid body which is rotating about some axis that is not its principal moment of inertia axis will experience a wobble as it rotates. The earth's wobble predicted by Euler was actually detected by Chandler (1891). The present paper is concerned with this wobble which is now known as the Chandler wobble. The Chandler wobble has now been under observation for more than 80 years. During part of this time, the amplitude of the wobble has actually been seen to grow. It follows that there must be some mechanisms operating to maintain (or excite) the Chandler wobble preventing it from decaying. Possible excitation mechanisms considered include earthquakes and meteorological variations. In this paper, an analysis is conducted of Lageos polar motion data for the period 1977-1983 to find out what can be learned from these data about the excitation mechanisms.

Gross, R. S.↗

Industrial Productivity

NASTRAN is an offshoot of the computer-design technique used in construction of airplanes and spacecraft. [n this technique engineers create a mathematical model of the aeronautical or space vehicle and "fly" it on the ground by means of computer simulation. The technique enables them to study performance and structural behavior of a number of different designs before settling on the final configuration and proceeding with construction. From this base of aerospace experience, NASA-Goddard developed the NASTRAN general purpose computer program, which offers an exceptionally wide range of analytic capability with regard to structures. NASTRAN has been applied to autos, trucks, railroad cars, ships, nuclear power reactors, steam turbines, bridges, and office buildings. NASA-Langley provides program maintenance services regarded as vital by many NASTRAN users. NASTRAN is essentially a predictive tool. It takes an electronic look at a computerire$.dedgn and reports how the structure will react under a great many different conditions. It can, for example, note areas where high stress levels will occur-potential failure points that need strengthening. Conversely, it can identify over-designed areas where weight and material might be saved safely. NASTRAN can tell how pipes stand up under strong fluid flow, how metals are affected by high temperatures, how a building will fare in an earthquake or how powerful winds will cause a bridge to oscillate. NASTRAN analysis is quick and inexpensive. It minimizes trial-and-error in the design process and makes possible better, safe, lighter structures affording large-scale savings in development time and materials. Some examples of the broad utility NASTRAN is finding among industrial firms are shown on these pages.

Source record↗

Present-day plate motions

A data set comprising 110 spreading rates, 78 transform fault azimuths and 142 earthquake slip vectors was inverted to yield a new instantaneous plate motion model, designated RM2. The mean averaging interval for the relative motion data was reduced to less than 3 My. A detailed comparison of RM2 with angular velocity vectors which best fit the data along individual plate boundaries indicates that RM2 performs close to optimally in most regions, with several notable exceptions. On the other hand, a previous estimate (RM1) failed to satisfy an extensive set of new data collected in the South Atlantic Ocean. It is shown that RM1 incorrectly predicts the plate kinematics in the South Atlantic because the presently available data are inconsistent with the plate geometry assumed in deriving RM1. It is demonstrated that this inconsistency can be remedied by postulating the existence of internal deformation with the Indian plate, although alternate explanations are possible.

Minster, J. B.↗

Comparison of GPS surveys with historical triangulation surveys in the southern California borderland

Global plate models predict about 56 mm/yr of motion between the North American and Pacific plates along the plate boundary in southern California, while geodetic and Holocene geological data suggest only 34 mm/yr on the San Andreas fault. Deformation in the Great Basin does not explain this discrepancy, and it has been suggested that faulting in the offshore of southern California could account for some of the discrepancy. Evidence of deformation in the offshore region of southern California is most abundant in the Santa Barbara Channel. Geological investigations of folding and faulting in this region, as well as earthquake investigations, indicate north-south shortening across the channel on the order of 10 to 20 mm/yr. The most rapid rates occur to the east of the channel in the Ventura Basin. South of the Santa Barbara Channel, though, evidence for deformation is limited to seismicity studies which are sparse. Seismic events are abundant in this area, but their implication for the amount of deformation in the offshore is unclear. GPS measurements made between June 1986 and May 1988 have been used to obtain vector positions for several stations at which historical first order triangulation observations were performed between the late 1800's and the mid 1900's between the coast of southern California and the nearby offshore islands. By comparing the spheroidal angles obtained from the GPS positions with the the previously observed triangulation data, shear strain rates can be calculated for the region using Frank's method. These results seem to suggest that shear strain deformation occurs in the offshore of southern California as a result of north to north-west shortening. That deformation is most active in the Santa Barbara Channel region and least active between Catalina and San Nicholas islands. Just how much of the missing plate motion can be accounted for by this deformation is not known at this time and will have to await further analysis.

Webb, Frank H.↗

Oblique convergence and deformation along the Kuril and Japan trenches

The hypothesis that present-day deformation within the southern Kuril forearc is driven by oblique subduction of the Pacific plate is tested using 397 horizontal slip directions derived from shallow-thrust earthquakes from the Kuril and Japan trenches for the period 1963-1991. A simple two-plate model fits the 397 slip vectors significantly worse than a model that permits strike-slip motion of the southern Kuril forearc relative to the overlying plate. Weighted, mean slip directions along the southern Kuril trench are systematically rotated toward the direction orthogonal to the trench, which implies that the net convergence is partitioned into less oblique subduction and trench-parallel displacement of the southern Kuril forearc. The angular discrepancy between the observed slip direction and the direction predicted by the NUVEL-1 Pacific-North America Euler vector implies that the southern Kuril forearc translates 6-11 mm/yr to the southwest relative to the overlying North American plate. These results are consistent with geologically, geodetically, and seismologically observed convergence at the leading edge of the forearc sliver in southern Kokkaido and with previously inferred extension at the trailing edge of the sliver, which is located at the Bussol Strait at 46 deg N.

Demets, Charles↗

Mechanics of distributed fault and block rotation

Paleomagnetic data, structural geology, and rock mechanics are used to explore the validity and significance of the block rotation concept. The analysis is based on data from Northern Israel, where fault slip and spacing are used to predict block rotation; the Mojave Desert, with well documented strike-slip sets; the Lake Mead, Nevada fault system with well-defined sets of strike-slip faults; and the San Gabriel Mountains domain with a multiple set of strike-slip faults. The results of the analysis indicate that block rotations can have a profound influence on the interpretation of geodetic measurments and the inversion of geodetic data. Furthermore, the block rotations and domain boundaries may be involved in creating the heterogeneities along active fault systems which may be responsible for the initiation and termination of earthquake rupture.

Nur, A.↗

Supporting Disaster Assessment and Response with the VIIRS Day-Night Band

When meteorological or man‐made disasters occur, first responders often focus on impacts to the affected population and other human activities. Often, these disasters result in significant impacts to local infrastructure and power, resulting in widespread power outages. For minor events, these power outages are often short-lived, but major disasters often include long‐term outages that have a significant impact on wellness, safety, and recovery efforts within the affected areas. Staff at NASA's Short‐term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center have been investigating the use of the VIIRS day‐night band for monitoring power outages that result from significant disasters, and developing techniques to identify damaged areas in near real‐time following events. In addition to immediate assessment, the VIIRS DNB can be used to monitor and assess ongoing recovery efforts. In this presentation, we will highlight previous applications of the VIIRS DNB following Superstorm Sandy in 2012, and other applications of the VIIRS DNB to more recent disaster events, including detection of outages following the Moore, Oklahoma tornado of May 2013 and the Chilean earthquake of April 2014. Examples of current products will be shown, along with future work and other goals for supporting disaster assessment and response with VIIRS capabilities.

Schultz, Lori A.↗

Geodetic measurement of deformation in the central Mojave Desert, California

Data from triangulation and trilateration surveys made during 1934-1982 are used to calculate shear strain rates in the central Mojave Desert of California. For the region between the Helendale and Camp Rock faults the shear strain rate was determined to be 0.16 + or - 0.03 microstrain/yr, with maximum right-lateral shear strain occurring on a plane oriented N41 deg W + or - 5 deg. If this deformation is due to right-lateral motion across the northwest trending local faults, the average shear straining corresponds to a relative displacement of 6.7 + or - 1.3 mm/yr across this portion of the network, accounting for about 12 percent of the predicted 56 mm/yr of relative motion between the North Atlantic and Pacific plates. From the Camp Rock fault eastward across the network there is a transition from significant to very low strain rates. Examination of nine focal mechanisms and their relation to the local geology and the strain data suggests that most of the long-term displacement occurs on the major northwest trending faults oriented nearly along the direction of relative motion between the North American and Pacific plates. Secondary faulting, controlled by a Coulomb-Anderson failure mechanism or by slip on preexisting faults can account for the occurrence of earthquakes on faults of other orientations.

Sauber, Jeanne↗