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DOE OSTI2020

EQSIM—A multidisciplinary framework for fault-to-structure earthquake simulations on exascale computers, part II: Regional simulations of building response

The existing observational database of the regional-scale distribution of strong ground motions and measured building response for major earthquakes continues to be quite sparse. As a result, details of the regional variability and spatial distribution of ground motions, and the corresponding distribution of risk to buildings and other infrastructure, are not comprehensively understood. Utilizing high-performance computing platforms, emerging high-resolution, physics-based ground motion simulations can now resolve frequencies of engineering interest and provide detailed synthetic ground motions at high spatial density. This provides an opportunity for new insight into the distribution of infrastructure seismic demands and risk. In the work presented herein, the EQSIM fault-to-structure computational framework described in a companion paper, McCallen et al., is employed to investigate the regional-scale response of buildings to large earthquakes. A representative M = 7.0 strike-slip event is used to explore the distribution and amplitude of building demand, and comparisons are made between building response computed with fault-to-structure simulations and building response computed with existing measured near-fault earthquake records. New information on the distribution and variability of building response from high-performance parallel simulations is described and analyzed, and favorable first comparisons between building response predicted with both fault-to-structure simulations and real ground motions records are presented.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Final Seismic Shake Table Test Plan

The Spent Fuel Waste Disposition (SFWD) program is planning to conduct a full-scale seismic shake table test on the dry storage systems of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) to close the gap related to seismic loads on fuel assemblies in dry storage systems. This test will allow for quantifying the strains and accelerations on surrogate fuel assembly hardware and cladding during earthquakes of different magnitudes and frequency content. Full-scale testing is needed because a dry storage system is a complex and highly nonlinear system making it hard to predict (model) the responses to seismic excitations. The non-linearity arises from the multiple spatial gaps in the system – between fuel rods and the basket, between the basket and dry storage canister, between the dry storage canister and the storage cask (overpack), and ventilation gaps. The non-linearities pose significant limitations on the value of tests with scaled systems.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Precursory Locking Precedes Slip Events on Laboratory Fault

Earthquakes occur through repeated cycles of locking and slip. What is the relationship between transiently locked patches and the size, location, and timing of the subsequent slip events? Here we use an experimental fault made of transparent rubber to image the slip history of over 18,000 events. The soft elastic system allows for contained ruptures and thus a natural evolution of stress heterogeneity over multiple earthquake cycles. We observe a precursory locking phase preceding slip nucleation for events of all sizes. The integrated locking distance increases linearly with the moment of the eventual event. The most intense (largest slip deficit) locking events are spatially and temporally correlated with the hypocenters of the largest rupture events. These results show that the transient locking is statistically, but not deterministically, predictive of the location, timing, and size of the eventual slip event.

earthquakes↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic Distribution System Restoration Strategy for Resilience Enhancement: Preprint

In electric power distribution systems, distributed energy re-sources (DERs) can act as controllable power sources and support utility operators to minimize power outages after ex-treme weather events (e.g., hurricane, earthquake, wildfire) and thus help enhance the grid's resilience. Meanwhile, the influ-ences of extreme events and the capabilities of DERs are dy-namic and difficult to predict. Hence, the desired distribution system restoration strategy should be able to evolve according to real-time fault/disturbance information and the availabil-ity of DERs. In this paper, we propose a new dynamic distribu-tion system restoration strategy to enhance system resilience against potential hazards. An efficient reconfiguration algo-rithm is developed to eliminate the use of integer variables to relieve the computational burden. Model predictive control is implemented to adjust the system topology and DER opera-tion setpoints based on the updated fault information and DER forecasts. The effectiveness of the proposed restoration model in enhancing distribution system resilience is validated through an IEEE 123-bus test system. Simulation results also validate that the proposed restoration model can mitigate the occurrence of unexpected events and the fluctuations of DERs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

WaveDP

We developed a robust deep learning model designed to effectively reduce background noise and measure signal arrival times from seismic waveforms. This model processes a 57-second, three-component seismogram to predict the probability of Primary (P) and Secondary (S) waves for each timestamp, while also generating a denoised seismogram. Training was conducted using the benchmark STEAD dataset, which includes globally distributed earthquake signals recorded at local distances ranging from 0 to 350 kilometers.

Chai, Chengping [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning‐Assisted Microearthquake Location Workflow for Monitoring the Newberry Enhanced Geothermal System

Abstract Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) offer a sustainable energy source but face challenges in accurately locating microearthquakes induced during reservoir stimulation. Locating these microearthquakes provides reliable feedback on the stimulation progress. Current deep learning methods for locating earthquakes require extensive data sets for training, which is problematic as detected microearthquakes are often limited. To address the scarcity of training data, we propose a practical workflow using probabilistic multilayer perceptron (PMLP) which predicts microearthquake locations from cross‐correlation time lags in waveforms. Utilizing a 3D velocity model of Newberry site derived from ambient noise interferometry, we generate numerous synthetic microearthquakes and 3D acoustic waveforms for PMLP training. Accurate synthetic tests prompt us to apply the trained network to the 2012 and 2014 stimulation field waveforms. To enhance the accuracy of source localization, we carefully handpick the P‐arrival times. Predictions on the 2012 stimulation data set show major microseismic activity at depths of 0.5–1.2 km, correlating with a known casing leakage scenario. In the 2014 data set, the majority of predictions concentrate at 2.0–2.9 km depths, consistent with results obtained from conventional physics‐based inversion, and align with the presence of natural fractures from 2.0 to 2.7 km. We validate our findings by comparing the synthetic and field picks, demonstrating a satisfactory match for the first arrivals. By combining the benefits of quick inference speeds and accurate location predictions, we demonstrate the feasibility of using realistic synthetic data set to locate microseismicity for EGS monitoring.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Aftershocks of a Chemical Explosion in Granite from the Source Physics Experiment Phase I

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) is a multiphase experiment to better understand explosion source physics and thereby improve explosion monitoring. The rst phase (Phase I) examined the explosion source in a hard-rock medium and took place in a granite outcrop called the Climax Stock section of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). This series of chemical explosions are called the Wet Granite Geology (WGG) events, but are usually referred to simply as the SPE events (i.e., SPE-1, SPE-2, etc.). Event information for the chemical explosions is given in Table 1. The study of explosion aftershocks can aid in understanding of in-situ stresses and be used as a discriminant for earthquakes [Ford and Walter, 2010]. Sweeney and Harben reported no observed aftershocks for SPE-1 and -2, respectively. They calculated a minimum magnitude of observation based on the noise oor of the seismic array and predicted at least one or two events in the week after the events using the hard-rock aftershock model from Ford and Labak. Possible explanations for the null observation ranged from instrumental - poor seismometer coupling, to physical - the shallow depth of burial was unable to access the deep tectonic stress that causes some explosion aftershocks. We extend the analysis of Sweeney and Harben to the largest of the SPE Phase I chemical explosions, SPE-5, which was approximately a 5 tonne TNT-equivalent shot at 76.5 m depth. This event registered as an M L 2 on the University of Nevada, Reno seismic network and should produce a measurable aftershock sequence.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Stress Controls Rupture Extent and Maximum Magnitude of Induced Earthquakes

Abstract Seismic hazard forecasts of induced seismicity often require estimates of the maximum possible magnitude ( M max ). Empirical models suggest that maximum magnitudes, or expected number of earthquakes, are related to the volume of injected fluid. We perform a suite of 3D physics‐based earthquake simulations with rate‐ and state‐dependent friction, systematically varying the area of the pressurized region and the amplitude of the initial homogeneous or heterogeneous shear stress. Using the resulting catalog we explore the conditions that result in pressure‐controlled versus runaway ruptures that extend outside the pressurized zone. We find that proposed empirical scaling laws correctly predict M max when shear stresses are further from failure (≤90% of maximum shear stress) and for high amplitude stress fields. Runaway ruptures are observed for higher initial shear stresses and smoother stress fields. In these cases, runaway ruptures occur early after the onset of injection and rarely preceded by foreshock activity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Basin-Scale Structural Features Database

The Basin-Scale Structural Features database provides spatial datasets of faults, fractures, folds, and earthquakes compiled from public, authoritative sources (e.g., U.S. Geological Survey and State Geological Surveys) and aggregated into derivative forms to support subsurface assessments. Recognizing that characterizing basin-scale structural features requires interpreting data that are often ambiguous or lack key information, the source data were evaluated using a knowledge-data framework and geospatial fuzzy logic method (Justman et al., 2020) to represent both measured (observed) and predicted (inferred or potential) structural features as derivative datasets. This workflow employs conceptual models for known structural features and predicted structural features, incorporating geospatial data to estimate potential, even with limited data. The aim is to aid and support an understanding of basin-scale features and identify potential gaps in data and knowledge. As of 4/30/2025, the database includes resources for nine sedimentary basins: Appalachian, Denver, U.S. Gulf Coast, Illinois, Michigan, Permian, Sacramento, San Joquin and Williston. The database is organized by basin and then data category: 1) Faults, fractures, folds, 2) Earthquakes, 3) Topographic, 4) Structural contours and isopachs, 5) Geophysical, and 6) Structural feature density assessment maps.

basin scale↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the Vertical Response of an Aeroseismometer Balloon System

Aeroseismometery is a novel, cutting edge capability that involves balloon based systems for detecting and geolocating sources of infrasound. The incident infrasound from a range of sources such as volcanos, earthquakes, explosions, supersonic aircraft impinges upon the balloon system causing it to respond dynamically. The dynamic response is post-processed to locate the infrasound source. This report documents the derivation of an analytical model that predicts the balloon dynamics. Governing equations for the system are derived as well as a transfer function relating the infrasound signal to the net force on the balloon components. Experimental measurements of the infrasound signals are convolved with the transfer function and the governing equations numerically time integrated to obtain predictions of the displacement, velocity and acceleration of the balloon system. The predictions are compared to the experimental measurements with good agreement observed. The derivation focuses only on the vertical dynamics of the balloon system. Future work will develop governing equations for the swinging response of the balloon to the incident infrasound.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Characteristics and selection of near-fault simulated earthquake ground motions for nonlinear analysis of buildings

Earthquake-induced ground shaking near rupturing faults is highly sensitive to the rupture characteristics, seismic wave propagation patterns and site conditions, and field recordings of near-fault shaking are relatively sparse. These challenges complicate the assessment of the seismic performance of near-fault structures. A common approach to representing near-fault ground motion in engineering analysis is to explicitly consider and select records with strong directivity pulses (pulse records). We use three-dimensional high-resolution physics-based earthquake simulations to test this approach in the context of scenario-based ground motion record selection, and to study the important characteristics of near-fault ground shaking. We highlight the deficiencies associated with classifying near-fault simulated records as “pulse” or “non-pulse,” based on the presence of a single dominating pulse in the velocity time history. We show that this approach is inadequate for characterizing near-fault shaking on soft soils which can be dominated by both forward rupture directivity and basin amplification effects. We conduct ground motion selection experiments for the analysis of near-fault structures with and without explicit classification of the pulse features in the records, and evaluate the bias in the predicted structural demands. We find that the maximum interstory drift demands on building structures imposed by unscaled site-specific simulated ground motion records selected based on relevant spectral shape features are not sensitive to the classification of records as pulse/non-pulse. Therefore, with regard to predicting the maximum interstory drifts in near-fault buildings, we do not find justification for the binary pulse classification of near-fault records.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Rocking response of liquid-filled cylindrical tanks

The hydrodynamic response of liquid-filled storage tanks subjected to translational earthquake shaking has been the focus of studies for more than 75 years. In service, tanks experience six components of seismic input, with rocking due to support flexibility and/or rotational components of ground motion. Published theory for predicting hydrodynamic responses in rigid cylindrical tanks due to rotational seismic input is examined. Analytical solutions for pressure in the fluid and on the tank wall, and base moment are modified to account for the effects of angular displacements at the base. A finite element model of a water-filled cylindrical tank using the Arbitrary Lagrangian and Eulerian (ALE) solver in LS-DYNA is used to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed expressions for three base rocking motions. Results from the modified analytical solutions and the finite element model are in excellent agreement.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

High-Resolution Near-Surface Imaging at the Basin Scale Using Dark Fiber and Distributed Acoustic Sensing: Toward Site Effect Estimation in Urban Environments

Near-surface seismic structure, particularly the shear wave velocity (V s ), can strongly affect local site response, and should be accurately estimated for ground motion prediction during seismic hazard assessment. The Imperial Valley (California), occupying the southern end of the Salton Trough, is a seismically active basin with thick surficial lacustrine sedimentary deposits. In this study, we utilize ambient noise records and local earthquake events for high-resolution near-surface characterization and site effect estimation with an unlit fiber-optic telecommunication infrastructure (dark fiber) in Imperial Valley by using the distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) technique. We apply ambient noise interferometry to retrieve coherent surface waves from DAS records, and evaluate performances of three different surface wave methods on DAS ambient noise dispersion imaging. We develop a quality control workflow to improve the dispersion measurement of noisy portions of the DAS data set by using a data selection strategy. Using the joint inversion of both the fundamental mode and higher overtones of Rayleigh waves, a high resolution two-dimensional (2D) V s structure down to 70 m depth is obtained. We successfully achieve an improved V s 30 (the time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the top 30 m) model with higher spatial-resolution and reliability compared to the existing community model for the area. We also explore the potential for utilizing DAS earthquake events for site amplification estimation. The preliminary results reveal a clear anti-correlation between the approximated site response and the V s 30 profile. In conclusion, our results indicate the potential utility of DAS deployed on dark fiber for near-surface characterization in appropriate contexts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

An exponential build-up in seismic energy suggests a months-long nucleation of slow slip in Cascadia

Slow slip events result from the spontaneous weakening of the subduction megathrust and bear strong resemblance to earthquakes, only slower. This resemblance allows us to study fundamental aspects of nucleation that remain elusive for classic, fast earthquakes. We rely on machine learning algorithms to infer slow slip timing from statistics of seismic waveforms. We find that patterns in seismic power follow the 14-month slow slip cycle in Cascadia, arguing in favor of the predictability of slow slip rupture. Here, we show that seismic power exponentially increases as the slowly slipping portion of the subduction zone approaches failure, a behavior that shares a striking similarity with the increase in acoustic power observed prior to laboratory slow slip events. Our results suggest that the nucleation phase of Cascadia slow slip events may last from several weeks up to several months.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Coupled Investigation of Fracture Permeability Impact on Reservoir Stress and Seismic Slip Behavior

Our goal is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. We will integrate experimental and modeling approaches to reduce parameter uncertainty and better predict/mitigate seismic hazard at EGS sites. Our novel approach couples 3D physics-based earthquake simulations with THMC models (THMc+E). This capability will enable improve engineering decisions at Utah-FORGE and move EGS operations toward repeatable, robust, economically viable, and socially accepted development. For example, our THMC+E models will predict circulation scenarios and related seismic hazard for a suite of flow rates and under uncertainty, thus enabling evaluation of optimal circulation strategy. Laboratory experiments will be performed to constrain key model parameters and Bayesian techniques will provide a probabilistic evaluation of parameters used in models. THMC+E simulations will enable exploration various circumstances that may hinder EGS success and develop mitigation strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

5-2428: Fracture Permeability Impact on Seismic Slip Behavior

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Observations and seismoacoustic simulations of earthquake-generated infrasound waves in non-epicentral regions

We analysed infrasound waves associated with the Gyeongju earthquake (ML 5.8) that occurred on 2016 September 12, in the southeastern Korean Peninsula. For infrasound wave detection, the Progressive Multichannel Correlation method was applied to the infrasound data set recorded at seven arrays operating in South Korea at epicentral distances ranging from 178 to 472 km. Based on the back-projection method constrained by array-dependent celerity and azimuth deviation models, the source regions were identified in both the epicentral and non-epicentral regions. Remarkably, the non-epicentral secondary sources of this earthquake were located in regions with shallow water depths: (i) the western coastal area in the Yellow Sea and (ii) the shallow ocean basin and bank in the East Sea. The location results obtained from the earthquake could be corroborated through its foreshock (ML 5.1), yielding location results consistent with those of the main shock. The generation of infrasound waves over shallow water depths was fortuitously validated by direct recordings of dominant single-frequency (~0.3 Hz) infrasound waves at close range via temporary sensors near the ocean basin and bank. We interpreted that low-frequency infrasound signals could be generated from interactions among the ocean floor, shallow seawater and atmosphere. We performed numerical simulations of seismoacoustic fields to predict ground motions on the seafloor and acoustic transmission efficiency between the water and air interface. The simulations quantified the energy transfer through different media and clarified our observational results. We found that because this solid Earth‒water‒atmosphere coupled air wave has a relatively low frequency (~0.3 Hz), it can survive propagation over long distances compared with high-frequency infrasound waves generated in inland and mountain regions. In this study, we extend our understanding of water‒atmosphere coupling and the monitoring framework for earthquake-associated non-epicentral infrasound waves, encompassing not only inland ground shaking but also shallow sea regions located far from the epicentre.

Earthquake monitoring and test-ban treaty verifica↗

DOE OSTI2024

Making Phase-Picking Neural Networks More Consistent and Interpretable

Improving the interpretability of phase-picking neural networks remains an important task to facilitate their deployment to routine, real-time seismic monitoring. The popular phase-picking neural networks published in the literature lack interpretability because their output prediction scores do not necessarily correspond with the reliability of phase picks and can even be highly inconsistent depending on how we window the waveform data. Here, we show that systematically shifting the waveforms during training and using an antialiasing filter within the neural network architecture can substantially improve the consistency of the output prediction scores and can even make them scale with the signal-to-noise ratios of the waveforms. We demonstrate the improvements by applying these approaches to a commonly used phase-picking neural network architecture and using waveform data from the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗