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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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106 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Increasing risk of cascading hazards in the central Himalayas

Cascading hazards are becoming more prevalent in the central Himalayas. Primary hazards (e.g., earthquakes, avalanches, and landslides) often trigger secondary hazards (e.g., landslide dam, debris flow, and flooding), compounding the risks to human settlements, infrastructures, and ecosystems. Risk management strategies are commonly tailored to a single hazard, leaving human and natural systems vulnerable to cascading hazards. In this commentary, we characterize diverse natural hazards in the central Himalayas, including their cascading mechanisms and potential impacts. A scientifically sound understanding of the cascading hazards, underlying mechanisms, and appropriate tools to account for the compounding risks are crucial to informing the design of risk management strategies. Here, we also discuss the need for an integrated modeling framework, reliable prediction and early warning system, and sustainable disaster mitigation and adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Clustering earthquake signals and background noises in continuous seismic data with unsupervised deep learning

The continuously growing amount of seismic data collected worldwide is outpacing our abilities for analysis, since to date, such datasets have been analyzed in a human-expert intensive, supervised fashion. Moreover, analyses that are conducted can be strongly biased by the standard models employed by seismologists. In response to both of these challenges, we develop a new unsupervised machine learning framework for detecting and clustering seismic signals in continuous seismic records. Our approach combines a deep scattering network and a Gaussian mixture model to cluster seismic signal segments and detect novel structures. To illustrate the power of the framework, we analyze seismic data acquired during the June 2017 Nuugaatsiaq, Greenland landslide. We demonstrate the blind detection and recovery of the repeating precursory seismicity that was recorded before the main landslide rupture, which suggests that our approach could lead to more informative forecasting of the seismic activity in seismogenic areas.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimation of the orientation of stress in the Earth’s crust without earthquake or borehole data

Abstract Mechanical stress acting in the Earth’s crust is a fundamental property that is important for a wide range of scientific and engineering applications. The orientation of maximum horizontal compressive stress can be estimated by inverting earthquake source mechanisms and measured directly from borehole-based measurements, but large regions of the continents have few or no observations. Here we present an approach to determine the orientation of maximum horizontal compressive stress by measuring stress-induced anisotropy of nonlinear susceptibility, which is the derivative of elastic modulus with respect to strain. Laboratory and Earth experiments show that nonlinear susceptibility is azimuthally dependent in an anisotropic stress field and is maximum in the orientation of maximum horizontal compressive stress. We observe this behavior in the Earth—in Oklahoma and New Mexico, U.S.A, where maximum nonlinear susceptibility coincides with the orientation of maximum horizontal compressive stress measured using traditional methods. Our measurements use empirical Green’s functions and solid-earth tides and can be applied at different temporal and spatial scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The influence of alloying on slip intermittency and the implications for dwell fatigue in titanium

Dwell fatigue, the reduction in fatigue life experienced by titanium alloys due to holds at stresses as low as 60% of yield, has been implicated in several uncontained jet engine failures. Dislocation slip has long been observed to be an intermittent, scale-bridging phenomenon, similar to that seen in earthquakes but at the nanoscale, leading to the speculation that large stress bursts might promote the initial opening of a crack. Here we observe such stress bursts at the scale of individual grains in situ, using high energy X-ray diffraction microscopy in Ti–7Al–O alloys. This shows that the detrimental effect of precipitation of ordered Ti 3 Al is to increase the magnitude of rare pri $\langle$a$\rangle$ and bas $\langle$a$\rangle$ slip bursts associated with slip localisation. By contrast, the addition of trace O interstitials is beneficial, reducing the magnitude of slip bursts and promoting a higher frequency of smaller events. This is further evidence that the formation of long paths for easy basal plane slip localisation should be avoided when engineering titanium alloys against dwell fatigue.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Flow and arrest in stressed granular materials

Flowing granular materials often abruptly arrest if not driven by sufficient applied stresses. Such abrupt cessation of motion can be economically expensive in industrial materials handling and processing, and is significantly consequential in intermittent geophysical phenomena such as landslides and earthquakes. Using discrete element simulations, we calculate states of steady flow and arrest for granular materials under the conditions of constant applied pressure and shear stress, which are also most relevant in practice. Here the material can dilate or compact, and flow or arrest, in response to the applied stress. Our simulations highlight that under external stress, the intrinsic response of granular materials is characterized by uniquely-defined steady states of flow or arrest, which are highly sensitive to interparticle friction. While the flowing states can be equivalently characterized by volume fraction, coordination number or internal stress ratio, to characterize the states of shear arrest, one needs to also consider the structural anisotropy in the contact network. Here, we highlight the role of dilation in the flow-arrest transition, and discuss our findings in the context of rheological transitions in granular materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Forecasting induced seismicity in Oklahoma using machine learning methods

Oklahoma earthquakes in the past decade have been mostly associated with wastewater injection. Here we use a machine learning technique—the Random Forest to forecast induced seismicity rate in Oklahoma based on injection-related parameters. We split the data into training (2011.01–2015.05) and test (2015.06–2020.12) periods. The model forecasts seismicity rate during the test period based on input features, including operational parameters (injection rate and pressure), geological information (depth to basement), and modeled pore pressure and poroelastic stress. The results show overall good match with observed seismicity rate (adjusted R 2 of 0.75). The model shows that pore pressure rate and poroelastic stressing rates are the two most important features in forecasting. The absolute values of pore pressure and poroelastic stress, and the injection rate itself, are less important than the stressing rates. These findings further emphasize that temporal changes of stressing rates would lead to significant changes in seismicity rates.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Observations of extreme wave runup events on the US Pacific Northwest coast

Extreme, tsunami-like wave runup events in the absence of earthquakes or landslides have been attributed to trapped waves over shallow bathymetry, long waves created by atmospheric disturbances, and long waves generated by abrupt breaking. These runup events are associated with inland excursions of hundreds of meters and periods of minutes. While the theory of radiation stress implies that nearshore energy transfer from the carrier waves to the infragravity waves can also lead to very large runup, there have not been observations of runup events induced by this process with magnitudes and periods comparable to the other three mechanisms. This work presents observations of several runup events in the US Pacific Northwest that are comparable to extreme runup events related to the other three mechanisms. It also discusses possible generation mechanisms and shows that energy transfer from carrier waves to bound infragravity waves is a plausible generation mechanism. In addition, a method to predict and forecast extreme runup events with similar characteristics is presented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Determining Stress Orientation in Rock Valley, Nevada, Using Ambient Seismic Noise

The stress field and the mechanical properties of rocks are important to consider for nuclear explosion monitoring due to their effect on seismic wave radiation from earthquakes and explosions. At the Rock Valley Direct Comparison site, the regional orientation of the maximum horizontal compressive stress (SH max ) is well constrained, but it is unknown whether there are local heterogeneities. Here, I show that stress-induced anisotropy in nonlinear elasticity can be used to estimate the orientation of SH max . Rocks have compliant internal contacts, such as fractures and mineral grain boundaries, that respond to applied strains more strongly than individual mineral crystals. This strain response is asymmetric between compressive and dilatational strains and is affected by anisotropy in the ambient stress field. Traditional seismic velocity measurements are of strain-averaged velocity, which is less sensitive than nonlinear elasticity to the behavior of compliant internal contacts and therefore the stress field and fracture behavior. My results show that the orientation of SH max measured using ambient seismic noise aligns with regional estimates, with some heterogeneity that can also be explained by the limitations of the seismic array. I demonstrate the potential of a passive technique for monitoring the stress field in places that currently lack local measurements.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Structural modeling and dynamic analysis of condensate storage tanks in nuclear power plants

Condensate storage tanks (CSTs) in nuclear power plants (NPPs) are classified as critical equipment capable of surviving strong shaking in a design basis earthquake to assure the ability to subsequently provide cooling water. Structural modeling and dynamic analysis of CSTs are complicated due to fluid-structure interaction (FSI) and coupling issues, which could have significant effects on seismic response. The capability of a number of approximate models to capture seismic response is investigated using dynamic analysis results from detailed finite element models. Modal analyses and time history analyses are carried out using both 2D and 3D models to predict the dynamic behavior of CSTs as a function of ground motion intensity. Although 2D simplified models can be used to quickly evaluate the dynamic response of CSTs when there is substantial margin to failure, a detailed 3D model is required when it is necessary to examine a limit state associated with the failure mode of the tank. The findings show good agreement between the natural frequencies of convective modes determined from the 2D and 3D CST models. The difference between the frequencies of impulsive modes were found to be equal to or less than 25%.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Seismic tomography of compressional wave velocity and attenuation structure for Makushin Volcano, Alaska

Located in the central portion of the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone, Makushin Volcano is among the most active volcanoes in the United States and has been classified as a very high threat by the National Volcano Early Warning System based on its eruptive history and proximity to the City of Unalaska and international air routes. In 2015, five standalone seismic stations and three mini seismic arrays of 15 stations each were deployed on Unalaska Island to supplement the Alaska Volcano Observatory permanent seismic network. This temporary array was operational for one year. Taking advantage of the increased azimuthal coverage and the array's increased earthquake detection capability, we developed body-wave Vp and Vp/Vs seismic images of the velocity structure beneath the volcano. Our results show a complex structure with the upper 4 km of the crust. The shallow high-Vp features possibly delineate remnant magma pathways or conduits. Low-Vp regions are found east of the caldera at approximately 4–8 km depth. This is in agreement with previous seismic tomographic work and InSAR-based geodetic models, which had identified this region as a possible long-term source of magma. A three-dimensional compressional wave attenuation model complemented the velocity models. In general, we observe regions of corresponding low P-wave velocity and high attenuation east of the summit caldera between 5 and 7 km depth, supporting the presence of a melt-rich zone. The absolute Vp values (5.5–6.0 km/s) in this region are consistent with the presence of a magma body with a mafic signature. Here, we suggest that a triggering mechanism that involves mafic injections into a more evolved shallow magma chamber is representative of the current magmatic system below the volcano, similarly to what petrological studies have inferred for past eruptions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mid-height seismic isolation of equipment in nuclear power plants: Numerical simulations and design recommendations

Seismic isolation can mitigate earthquake demands on safety-class equipment and is being considered for application to some advanced nuclear reactors. For tall, slender vessels that could represent an advanced reactor, a steam generator or a heat exchanger, mid-height seismic isolation has been shown to be beneficial and practical. Here, this paper focuses on numerical modeling of a mid-height isolated tall, slender vessel with two primary goals 1) investigate and quantify the benefits of mid-height seismic isolation for a range of support structure stiffnesses, isolation systems, and seismic inputs, and 2) provide analysis and design recommendations for isolation of safety-class equipment. Results of response-history analysis were in good agreement with experimental measurements and demonstrated that mid-height isolation can substantially reduce seismic demands on tall, slender vessels for a range of support structure stiffnesses, isolation systems, and seismic inputs. Importantly, the reductions in horizontal spectral accelerations in the mid-height isolated vessel from the non-isolated condition were not affected by the stiffness of the support structure. Recommendations are made for analysis and design of isolated equipment and testing of isolators used for equipment protection in nuclear facilities, which are also applicable to other industries.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Framework for Quantitative Evaluation of Resilience Solutions: An Approach to Determine the Value of Resilience for a Particular Site

The paper provides the approach to providing a benefit cost analysis of energy and water alternatives to provide resilience to extreme events. The approach estimates the costs and returns of providing greater resilience of water and energy infrastructure. Extreme events are defined as high impact, low-frequency events such as, but not limited to, hurricanes, floods, storm surges and earthquakes. The provides justification for hardening water and energy infrastructure. Resilience is defined as “the ability to prepare for and to withstand an extreme event with little or no damage, or to recover more quickly from an extreme event.” The approach can be summarized as follows. The approach requires the development of a baseline with which to compare alternatives. The baseline is used to evaluate the baseline’s resilience to hazards through the probability of the hazard(s), the likelihood of damage from that the hazard through a vulnerability analysis, and the consequence to calculate a cost of the damage. The approach then evaluates proposed mitigation alternatives that would improve the resilience of the system. Each alternative is evaluated based on probability of the hazard, probability of vulnerability and consequence to determine the reduced damage that each alternative presents. The approach includes any monetary and non-monetary benefits that can quantified for each of the alternatives. Non-quantifiable benefits are evaluated based on the relative importance of each alternative to the criteria used to determine how well the alternative meets the goals and objectives of the site/facility. Then, a life cycle cost analysis should be conducted for the baseline and alternatives. Finally, the results of the life cycle analysis should be presented in a decision matrix with cost, net present value, benefit/cost ratios, and any non-monetary criteria ranked to show how well the alternatives met the criteria, weighted with the decision maker’s weights and the results presented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The 10 September 2025 M w 4.1 Earthquake in Northeastern Utah, United States: An Archetypal Continental Mantle Event

The 10 September 2025 M w 4.1 earthquake in northeastern Utah, United States, had a focal depth 68 km beneath sea level, which is ∼20–25 km greater than estimates of local crustal thickness, making it a rare example of a continental mantle earthquake (CME). The focal depth is well resolved from arrival-time inversion (nearest station ∼13 km away) and moment tensor inversion of regional waveforms. Similar to other CMEs in the Intermountain West, there were no obvious aftershocks or foreshocks, and the waveforms were enriched in high-frequency energy. Spectral modeling gives a stress drop of ∼80 MPa and a radiation efficiency of ∼0.08, albeit with large uncertainties. The high stress drop and low radiation efficiency are consistent with a dissipative source process such as thermal runaway. Also similar to previous Intermountain West CMEs, the event occurred along the boundary of the Archean Wyoming craton, where pressure–temperature conditions favor ductile deformation. We hypothesize that edge-driven or regional-scale mantle convection produces increased strain rates near the craton boundary that make either conventional brittle failure or thermal runaway feasible at relatively high pressure–temperature conditions. High conductivity inferred around the edge of the craton may suggest that fluids also contribute to CME occurrence.

Koper, Keith D. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT↗
DOE OSTI2025

Insights into Slip-Rate Time Functions, Rupture Parameter Correlations, and Ground Motions from Validated Multicycle Earthquake Ruptures

Earthquake strong-motion predictions using kinematic source modeling require knowledge of the slip-rate functions (SRFs) along the rupture and their distinct characteristics in asperities, background (off-asperity) areas and near the surface. Here, in this study we analyzed SRFs from well-validated, self-consistent, and fully dynamic rupture models from earthquake cycles obeying a rate-and-state friction law, from our companion study (Galvez et al., 2021). The shapes of SRFs in asperities are well described by the regularized Yoffe function (RYF), which has only two parameters: rise time T r and smoothing time T s , which control the generation of long- and short-period ground motions, respectively. In background areas, we demonstrate that, in addition to the primary rupture, multiple secondary ruptures may also nucleate from rupture heterogeneities related to asperities, resulting in SRFs with multiple peaks. Because it is impossible to fit a multiple-peak SRF by the single-peak RYF, we describe SRFs in background areas in an effective way by fitting their amplitude spectra with the RYF spectra. Such spectrally effective RYFs capture salient aspects of seismic-wave generation and can be used in rupture generators for strong motion prediction. We found that small T s values correlate with small characteristic weakening distances, large peak slip rates (PSRs), and large rupture velocities. T r values are larger in background areas and smaller in asperities. Within the shallow aseismic zone, T s values approximately quadruple whereas T r values approximately double. Because of this dominant T s increase, PSR values decrease in the near-surface zone. These features indicate that the generation of strong motions by the near-surface portions of the rupture is negligible in the studied scenarios.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

Seismology in the Cloud: A New Streaming Workflow

Data-intensive research in seismology is experiencing a recent boom, driven in part by large volumes of available data and advances in the growing field of data science. However, there are significant barriers to processing large data volumes, such as long retrieval times from data repositories, complex data management, and limited computational resources. New tools and platforms have reduced the barriers to entry for scientific cluster computing, including the maturation of the commercial cloud as an accessible instrument for research. Here, we build a customized research cluster in the cloud to test a new workflow for large-scale seismic analysis, in which data are processed as a stream (retrieved on-the-fly and acted upon without storing), with data from the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology Data Management Center. We use this workflow to deploy a spectral peak detection algorithm over 5.6 TB of compressed continuous seismic data from 2074 stations of the USArray Transportable Array EarthScope network. Using a 50-node cluster in the cloud, we completed the noise survey in 80 hr, with an average data throughput of 1.7 GB per minute. By varying cluster sizes, we find the scaling of our analysis to be sublinear, due to a combination of algorithmic limitations and data center response times. The cloud-based streaming workflow represents an order-of-magnitude increase in acquisition and processing speed compared to a traditional download-store-process workflow, and offers the additional benefits of employing a flexible, accessible, and widely used computing architecture. It is limited, however, due to its reliance on Internet transfer speeds and data center service capacity, and may not work well for repeated analyses or those for which even higher data throughputs are needed. These research applications will require a new class of cloud-native approaches in which both data and analysis are in the cloud.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geomechanical characterization of Rock Valley carbonates

In Rock Valley, Nevada, the USA, past earthquake sequences and shallow faulting in Paleozoic carbonates remain poorly understood. Carbonates are typically more ductile rocks that do not experience large stress drops or fracture coalescence, which contradicts previous observations in the region. As part of the Source Physics Experiment, an effort has been made to experimentally characterize the petrophysical and geomechanical properties of carbonates from Rock Valley. Well core and outcrop samples were used to determine the difference between shallow-buried Tertiary limestones and deeply buried Paleozoic limestones and dolostones. The carbonates possessed porosities between 3 and 9%, with V P and V S in the Tertiary carbonates around 2700 and 1800 m/s, respectively, and 6000 and 3100 m/s, respectively, in the Paleozoic carbonates. Microstructural characterization revealed that the Paleozoic carbonates contained significantly more pre-existing damage and alteration than the Tertiary carbonates, though the deformation varies from localized to diffuse. Unconfined Brazilian tests and triaxial tests with confining pressures between 0 and 50 MPa showed that, although samples all experienced failure, the dolostones typically failed at greater stresses and possessed greater E/ν ratios than the limestones. Furthermore, the Hoek–Brown failure criterion was used to construct failure envelopes with the compressive and tensile failure tests. Velocity, density, and porosity measurements were used to construct a hypothetical velocity-depth profile and compare the results with the theoretical petrophysical measurements. Using brittleness analysis, the likely failure conditions were determined to be low-porosity dolomitic rock for fault nucleation in the Paleozoic basement.

Brittleness↗