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Sandia National Laboratories Economic Impact Methodology for Pandemic Scenarios.
Abstract not provided.
The Missing Economic Risks in Assessments of Climate Change Impacts
Economic assessments of the potential future risks of climate change have been omitting or grossly underestimating many of the most serious consequences for lives and livelihoods because these risks are difficult to quantify precisely and lie outside of human experience. Political and business leaders need to understand the scale of these ‘missing risks’ because they could have drastic and potentially catastrophic impacts on citizens, communities and companies. Scientists are growing in confidence about the evidence for the largest potential impacts of climate change and the rising probability that major thresholds in the Earth’s climate system will be breached as global mean surface temperature rises, particularly if warming exceeds 2°C above the pre-industrial level. These impacts include: (1) Destabilisation of ice sheets and glaciers and consequent sea level rise. (2) Stronger tropical cyclones. (3) Extreme heat impacts. (4) More frequent and intense floods and droughts. (5) Disruptions to oceanic and atmospheric circulation. (6) Destruction of biodiversity and collapse of ecosystems. Many of these impacts will grow and occur concurrently across the world as global temperature climbs. Some of these impacts involve thresholds in the climate system beyond which major impacts accelerate, or become irreversible and unstoppable. When a threshold is breached, it might cause one or more other thresholds to be exceeded as well, leading to a cascade of impacts. Many of these impacts could exceed the capacity of human populations to adapt, and would significantly affect and disrupt the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions, if not billions, of people worldwide. These impacts would also undermine economic growth and development, exacerbate poverty and destabilise communities. Economic assessments fail to take account of the potential for large concurrent impacts across the world that would cause mass migration, displacement and conflict, with huge loss of life. Economic assessments that are expressed solely in terms of effects on output (e.g. gross domestic product), or that only extrapolate from past experience, or that use inappropriate discounting, do not provide a clear indication of the potential risks to lives and livelihoods. It is likely that there are additional risks that we are not yet anticipating simply because scientists have not yet detected their possibility, as we have entered a period of climate change that is unprecedented in human history. Some advances are being made in improving economic assessments of climate change impacts but much more progress is required if assessments are to offer reliable guidance for political and business leaders on the biggest risks. The lack of firm quantifications is not a reason to ignore these risks, and when the missing risks are taken into account, the case for strong and urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions becomes even more compelling.
International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model: Stories of Use and Impact
The International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) model is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, biopower, and geothermal energy projects around the world. This short publication outlines how the tool has been used by organizations around the world.
Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Models
The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models (https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/jedi/) are publicly available, user-friendly tools designed to estimate the economic impacts of both construction and operation of power generation and biofuel plants at a local (usually state) level. Based on project-specific and default inputs (from techno-economic analysis data and NREL's expertise), these models estimate the number of jobs and economic benefits to a region that could reasonably be supported by a particular project. Underlying these calculations is an input-output framework that models the local economy as a network of sectors buying and selling to one-another, creating a multiplier effect. Over the last decade, JEDI has been widely used by both the academic and private sectors, serving as the foundations for multiple peer-reviewed publications and impact analysis reports.
Policy impact on economic and environmental sustainability of anaerobic digestion: Industrial case study Insights
This paper thoroughly examines how policy incentives impact the economic and environmental sustainability of anaerobic digestion (AD) systems. It uses techno-economic and life cycle analyses, along with real industry data, to explore the entire AD process—from feedstock acceptance to digestate disposal. It evaluates the effects of various U.S. policy crediting programs on the economic viability of different AD pathways for treating sewage sludge and food waste. Furthermore, tipping fees are identified as the primary driver of profitability, while policy credits play a crucial role in enhancing economic feasibility, particularly for renewable natural gas production. However, future regulatory changes could reshape this economic landscape. All AD pathways are found to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, though economic outcomes are highly sensitive to digestate disposal costs and feedstock tipping fees. Co-digestion with food waste is proposed as a strategy to reduce dependence on policy credits and improve long-term economic stability.
A Collaborative Industrial Assessment Center (IAC) for Expanded Outreach within the Southeast
This GA-FL IAC had impacts on workforce development and economic impact for regional small- and medium-sized enterprises. Qualified faculty and campus staff educated and trained cohorts of students regarding state-of-the-art industrial assessments. Students gained hands-on experiences in learning about manufacturing processes, energy systems, developing assessment recommendations/calculations, and client interaction. These skills were complemented by the incorporation of IAC themes into some course curricula. As far as economic impact, the center conducted 66 assessments over 5 years primarily in Georgia and Florida. These represented hundreds of thousands of dollars in potential annual resource savings to the clients and region.
Techno-economic-environmental impacts of industrial energy assessment: Sustainable industrial motor systems of small and medium-sized enterprises
Energy assessments can provide an effective way of identifying and implementing energy efficiency measures to save energy costs and avoid emissions throughout manufacturing facilities. Consequently, it generates significant economic and environmental benefits to localities, states, and the nation. Quantifying these benefits requires a systematic techno-economic-environmental framework for capturing the interactions. This article employs methodologies to improve the energy efficiency of small and medium-size industries through their sustainable industrial motor systems. Motor systems offer large opportunities to enhance energy efficiency through adopting advanced technologies and better-informed operations. Case studies presented illuminate the potential savings and impacts from implementing sustainable motor systems and the importance of energy assessments. Here, the integrated macro-economic analysis quantifies the regional sustainability impacts of implementing the industrial energy efficiency offered by an energy auditing program in Ohio over a ten-year period. Results show that implementing all the center’s motor recommendations have directly saved $\$702$ M in energy costs, avoided 2.7 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions, and created 3,445 jobs, resulting in a total annual economic impact of $\$788$ M stemming from direct, indirect, and induced regional economic impacts. It provides policy implications for encouraging sustainable industrial motor systems.
Quantifying Socioeconomic Impacts of Electricity Generating Technologies
The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) and other cost metrics used in energy planning do not account for out-of-market impacts of the technology choice. While a decision-maker at the utility or asset owner level may compare multiple forms of electricity generating technology using LCOE, a decision-maker over energy policy or community stakeholders may be interested in considering impacts beyond those that LCOE measures. This report quantifies economic impacts such as jobs and wage growth across electricity generation technologies then develops an approach to systematically compare socioeconomic metrics across technology choices. To address additional workforce related impacts, this report also compares the typical workforce education requirements and annual income levels for multiple types of electricity generating facilities. The grid scale electricity generating technologies analyzed in this report produce power using conventional hydroelectric dams, coal, natural gas, nuclear reactors, solar PV, land-based wind turbines, geothermal heat, and woody biomass combustion. Although it doesn’t generate electricity itself, the economic impacts associated with battery storage equipment manufacturing and installation were also analyzed.
Agriculture’s Potential Regional Economic Contributions to the United States Economy When Supplying Feedstock to the Bio-Economy
The economic impact of obtaining biomass could become significant to U.S. rural economies via the establishment of a bioeconomy. In 2023, the Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory provided a road map to obtain over a billion tons of biomass for conversion to bioenergy and other products. Using information from this roadmap, this study estimates the potential positive and negative economic impacts that occur because of land use change, along with increased technological advances. This is achieved by using the input–output model, IMPLAN, and impacting 179 Bureau of Economic Analysis regions in the conterminous United States. Biomass included in the analysis comprises dedicated energy crops, crop residues, and forest residues. The analysis found that managing pastures more intensively could result in releasing land to produce dedicated energy crops on 30.8 million hectares, resulting in the production of 361 million metric tons of biomass. This, coupled with crop residues from barley, corn, oats, sorghum, and wheat (162 million metric tons), plus forest residues (41 million metric tons), provide 564 million dry metric tons of biomass. Assuming the price for biomass in 2023 dollars was USD 77 per dry metric-ton, this additional production results in an economic benefit for the nation of USD 619 billion, an increase from the Business As Is scenario (Baseline) of almost USD 100 billion per year, assuming a mature biomass industry. An additional 700,000 jobs are required to grow, harvest/collect, and transport the biomass material from the land.
Techno-Economic Analysis: Impacts of PV Module Connector Failures on Cost and Performance of Utility Scale Photovoltaic Systems
This presentation describes results of Techno-Economic Analysis: to quanitfy Impacts of PV Module Connector Failures on Cost and Performance of Utility Scale Photovoltaic Systems, with example of 100 MW Utility Scale PV System. Results indicate impact on Levelized Cost of Energy on the order of $1.22/MWh in the example.
Technical Assessment of Potential Climate Impact and Economic Viability of Biochar Technologies for Small-Scale Agriculture in the Pacific Northwest
The goal of this study is to evaluate the state of biochar technology and determine the feasibility of integrating small-scale biochar production in ways that benefit smaller, diversified producers. Because of the emergence of carbon markets, this innovative climate and agricultural solution may be financed externally, making biochar more accessible to the growers that could benefit. In this report, we review the current state of biochar technology (Section 2), methods for assessing the potential climate impacts derived from its implementation (Section 3), and the current state of carbon-offset mechanisms for biochar technology (Section 4). In Section 5, we apply this knowledge to several specific biochar technology scenarios involving combinations of different feedstocks, production methods, and economic incentives to arrive at estimates of climate-mitigation impacts and costs per carbon credit generated. We conclude with a summary in Section 6.
Strategies for Co-Processing in Refineries: Techno-Economic & Refinery Impact Analysis
Refinery LP model for refinery impact analysis, co-processing at mile hydro-cracking unit, co-processing at fluidized catalytic cracking unit and discussions and future plans.
Assessing the Impact of Operational Constraints on the Near-Term Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic Management Supported Market
An economic impact market analysis was conducted for 16 leading sectors of commercial Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) applications predicted to be enabled by 2020 through the NASA UAS Traffic Management (UTM) program. Subject matter experts from seven industries were interviewed to validate concept of operations (ConOps) and market adoption assumptions for each sector. The market analysis was used to estimate direct economic impacts for each sector including serviceable addressable market, capital investment, revenue recovery potential, and operations cost savings. The resultant economic picture distinguishes the agricultural, pipeline and railroad inspection, construction, and maritime sectors of the nascent commercial UAS industry as providing the highest potential economic value in the United States. Sensitivity studies characterized the variability of select UAS sectors economic value to key regulatory or UTM ConOps requirements such as weight, altitude, and flight over populated area constraints. Takeaways from the analysis inform the validation of UTM requirements, technologies and timetables from a commercial market need and value viewpoint. This work concluded in August 2015 and reflects the state of the UAS industry and market projections at that time.
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Electricity Resilience Projects: State of the Art and Gap Analysis
Utilities and regulators must weigh the benefits of electricity resilience projects against their costs, which would be passed on to customers. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is an appropriate method for assessing this tradeoff. Here, in this paper we review the literature on CBA of electricity resilience projects and analyze gaps in the available methods and tools. The costs of resilience projects are typically straightforward to estimate but their benefits — particularly the avoided costs of power interruptions — are complex to quantify and monetize. A common perception among practitioners is that current CBA tools are not sufficiently mature to be adopted into real-world practice. We propose an electricity resilience CBA framework consisting of several elements: risks, physical impacts, power interruptions, economic impacts, and resilience projects. While methods for some elements are well-developed, there is a need for novel approaches to value avoided power interruptions, integrate multiple risks and benefit streams, and incorporate uncertainty.
Clean Energy and Microgrid Opportunities to Make Electricity Affordable, Reliable, and Clean in New Orleans
The City of New Orleans, Louisiana, is participating in the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Communities Local Energy Action Program (LEAP) Pilot, which is supporting 24 communities across the United States in their efforts to transition to clean energy to improve energy reliability, lower energy costs, and strengthen local economies. Communities LEAP is specifically open to low-income, energy-burdened communities that are also experiencing either direct environmental justice impacts, or direct economic impacts from a shift away from historical reliance on fossil fuels.
Systems Analysis Approach to Polyethylene Terephthalate and Olefin Plastics Supply Chains in the Circular Economy: A Review of Data Sets and Models
The environmental and economic impacts of implementing a circular economy in plastic waste supply chains are not well understood. The proposed systems analysis framework assesses environmental, social, and economic impacts of plastic waste supply chains in a circular economy. The first objective of this article is to identify datasets, models and knowledge gaps associated with waste plastic supply chain processes, mainly in the U.S. Our literature review indicated that the best datasets exist for virgin plastic resin production, mechanical recycling, landfilling, and incineration, with materials recovery facility being intermediate, and with chemical recycling the lowest. The second objective of this article is to develop an illustrative application of the framework by conducting a preliminary systems analysis of PET bottles with closed-loop recycling. Here, the preliminary systems analysis of PET bottles utilized a linear programming optimization method. Our optimization model indicated that both chemical and mechanical recycling processes are needed to achieve a true circular economy of PET bottles with the least greenhouse gas emissions, specifically reductions of 24% when compared with the linear economy. Good quality and standardized life cycle assessment and techno-economic analysis studies are needed to better understand the environmental, economic, and social impacts of advanced sorting and chemical recycling technologies.
Helicopter noise regulations: An industry perspective
A review of helicopter noise measurement programs and noise reduction/economic studies of FAA is given along with a critique of a study which addresses the economic impact of noise reduction on helicopter noise. Modification of several helicopters to reduce noise and demonstrate the economic impact of the application of the current state-of-the-art technology is discussed. Specific helicopters described include Boeing Vertol 347 Helicopter, Hughes OH-6 Helicopter, and Hughes 269C Helicopter. Other topics covered include: (1) noise trends and possible noise limits; (2) accuracy of helicopter noise prediction techniques; (3) limited change possibilities of derivatives; and (4) rotor impulsive noise. The unique operational capabilities of helicopters and the implications relative to noise regulations and certification are discussed.