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Lightning Variations in the Southeastern United States Related to the Winter 1997-98 EL NINO Event

Significant enhancements of wintertime (December-February) lightning in the Southeastern US and northern Gulf Of Mexico have been observed in association with the 1997-98 El Nino event. Positive rainfall anomalies have often been observed during prior warm ENSO events along the Gulf coast of the US. Based on our analysis of 10 years of reprocessed National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) data, a large area of the northern Gulf was found to have experienced its greatest number of cloud-to ground (surface) flashes during the period of record. In addition, a statistically significant increase in the number of hours with lightning was observed in contrast to the mean for the winter months. We attribute the enhancement of thunderstorm activity to the increased strength of the upper level Jet stream over the Gulf and the attendant increase in cyclogenesis within the region.

Buechler, Dennis↗

Zonal and Meridional Mass Redistribution in the Tropical Pacific During El Nino Southern Oscillation Events

This note aims at documenting the ENSO-related sea level changes for the whole tropical Pacific, and for the 1979-1996 period which covers numerous El Nino and La Nina events. For this purpose, we rely on (a) 0/450 dbar surface dynamic height anomaly (an alias for sea level) derived from XBT and TOGA-TAO measurements during 1979-1996, (b) TOPEX/Poseidon derived sea level anomaly during 1993-1996, and (c) Murtugudde et al. [1996] model sea level output during 1979-1995.

Delcroix, Thierry↗

A simple atmospheric model of relevance to El Nino

A linear, equatorial, beta-plane atmosphere model with heating parameterized in terms of SST anomalies is developed and used to simulate surface wind anomalies in the equatorial Pacific during El Nino. The model results show some similarity to observations with respect to movement of the major convergence zones, and equatorial wind anomaly patterns in the central and western Pacific. There is considerable discrepancy between the model results and observations in much of the eastern Pacific, especially in the South Pacific high and southeast trades regions. The results suggest that some additional mechanisms may be responsible for these apparently sizeable and spatially coherent fluctuations, but that a direct link between wind anomalies and SST anomalies may indeed exist in much of the equatorial Pacific.

Zebiak, S. E.↗

Observation of El Nino by the Nimbus-7 SMMR

The quality of Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) derived SST, water vapor, and windspeed are assessed, and these parameters are used to study the El Nino event of 1982-1983 in the equatorial Pacific region from 120 deg to the South American coast. The features of the anomaly fields for these parameters, and the connections between these fields, are discussed. Anomaly fields are found to be qualitatively consistent with outgoing longwave radiation anomaly fields and wind vector anomaly fields.

Hwang, P. H.↗

Evolution of Oceanic Precipitation Anomalies During El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Events of the Last Two Decades

The Global Precipitation Climatology Program (GPCP) recently released monthly global precipitation data that allowed an analysis of oceanic precipitation anomalies before, during, and after El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of the last two decades. During each ENSO event, a major positive precipitation anomaly was observed in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific, while a major negative precipitation anomaly was observed in the Western Equatorial Pacific and Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean. These precipitation anomalies co-varied strongly with sea surface temperature of the eastern equatorial Pacific, and may therefore be a good indicator of ENSO events. The precipitation anomaly pattern of 1997-98 differs significantly from previous ENSO events and calls certain aspects of current theories on ENSO into question.

Yuan, Jinchun↗

Atmospheric convergence feedback in a simple model for El Nino

A parameterization is developed for the feedback between dynamics and heating associated with moisture convergence in the tropical atmospheric boundary layer. The feedback improves the ability of a simple model to simulate observed anomalies of the tropical atmosphere during El Nino events. In particular, two features of the observations are reproduced by including the feedback process: the smaller scale of atmospheric anomalies as compared to SST anomalies, and the focusing of the anomalies in the vicinity of the mean convergence zones. The principal remaining shortcomings of the model are discussed.

Zebiak, S. E.↗

Angular momentum exchange among the solid Earth, atmosphere, and oceans: A case study of the 1982-1983 El Nino event

The 1982-1983 El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event was accompanied by the largest interannual variation in the Earth's rotation rate on record. In this study we demonstrate that atmospheric forcing was the dominant cause for this rotational anomaly, with atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) integrated from 1000 to 1 mbar (troposphere plus stratosphere) accounting for up to 92% of the interannual variance in the length of day (LOD). Winds between 100 and 1 mbar contributed nearly 20% of the variance explained, indicating that the stratosphere can play a significant role in the Earth's angular momentum budget on interannual time scales. Examination of LOD, AAM, and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) data for a 15-year span surrounding the 1982-1983 event suggests that the strong rotational response resulted from constructive interference between the low-frequency (approximately 4-6 year) and quasi-biennial (approximately 2-3 year) components of the ENSO phenomenon, as well as the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Sources of the remaining LOD discrepancy (approximately 55 and 64 microseconds rms residual for the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasting (EC) and U.S. National Meteorological Center (NMC) analyses) are explored; noise and systematic errors in the AAM data are estimated to contribute 18 and 33 microseconds, respectively, leaving a residual (rms) of 40 (52) microseconds unaccounted for by the EC (NMC) analysis. Oceanic angular momentum contributions (both moment of inertia changes associated with baroclinic waves and motion terms) are shown to be candidates in closing the interannual axial angular momentum budget.

Dickey, J. O.↗

Evolution of 1996-1999 La Nina and El Nino conditions off the western coast of South America: a remote sensing perspective

We present the evolution of oceanographic conditions off the western coast of South America between 1996 and 1999, including the cold periods of 1996 and 1998??9 and the 1997??8 El Nino, using satellite observations of sea level, winds, sea surface temperature (SST), and chlorophyll concentration. Following a period of cold SST and low sea levels in 1996, both were anomalously high between March 1997 and May 1998.

Eastern boundary currents Peru-Humbolt current rem↗

El Nino and Health Risks from Landscape Fire Emissions in Southeast Asia

Emissions from landscape fires affect both climate and air quality. Here, we combine satellite-derived fire estimates and atmospheric modelling to quantify health effects from fire emissions in southeast Asia from 1997 to 2006. This region has large interannual variability in fire activity owing to coupling between El Nino-induced droughts and anthropogenic land-use change. We show that during strong El Nino years, fires contribute up to 200 micrograms per cubic meter and 50 ppb in annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone surface concentrations near fire sources, respectively. This corresponds to a fire contribution of 200 additional days per year that exceed the World Health Organization 50 micrograms per cubic metre 24-hr PM(sub 2.5) interim target and an estimated 10,800 (6,800-14,300)-person (approximately 2 percent) annual increase in regional adult cardiovascular mortality. Our results indicate that reducing regional deforestation and degradation fires would improve public health along with widely established benefits from reducing carbon emissions, preserving biodiversity and maintaining ecosystem services.

fires↗

The 1982-1983 El Nino Atlas: Nimbus-7 microwave radiometer data

Monthly maps of sea surface temperature, atmospheric water vapor, and surface level wind speed as measured by the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on the Nimbus-7 satellite for the tropical Pacific from June 1982 to October 1983, during one of the most intense El Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO) episodes, are presented. The non-ENSO annual cycle was compiled by averaging the 1980 and 1981 data for each calendar month and was removed from monthly fields of 1982 and 1983 to reveal the anomalous distributions. The anomaly fields and part of the non-ENSO annual cycle are also presented. This study and earlier evaluations demonstrate that the Nimbus/SMMR can be used to monitor large scale and low frequency variabilities in the tropical ocean. The SMMR data support and extend conventional measurements. The variabilities of the three parameters are found to represent various aspects of ENSO related through ocean atmosphere interaction. Their simultaneous and quantitative descriptions pave the way for the derivation of ocean atmosphere latent heat exchange and further the understanding of the coupled atmospheric and oceanic thermodynamics.

Liu, W. Timothy↗

El Nino Southern Oscillation and Tuna in the Western Pacific

Nearly 70% of the world's annual tuna harvest, currently 3.2 million tonnes, comes from the Pacific Ocean. Skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) dominate the catch. Although skipjack are distributed in the surface mixed layer throughout the equatorial and subtropical Pacific, catches are highest in the western equatorial Pacific warm pool, a region characterized by low primary productivity rates that has the warmest surface waters of the world's oceans. Assessments of tuna stocks indicate that recent western Pacific skipjack catches approaching one million tonnes annually are sustainable. The warm pool, which is fundamental to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Earth's climate in general, must therefore also provide a habitat capable of supporting this highly productive tuna population. Here we show that apparent spatial shifts in the skipjack population are linked to large zonal displacements of the warm pool that occur during ENSO events. This relationship can be used to predict (several months in advance) the region of highest skipjack abundance, within a fishing ground extending over 6,000 km along the Equator.

Lehodey, P.↗

Spatial Correlations of Anomalies of Tropospheric Temperature and Water Vapor, Cloud Cover, and OLR with the El Nino Index

In this presentation, we will show AIRS Version-6 area weighted anomaly time series over the time period September 2002 through August 2014 of atmospheric temperature and water vapor profiles as a function of height. These anomaly time series show very different behaviors in the stratosphere and in the troposphere. Tropical mean stratospheric temperature anomaly time series are very strongly influenced by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) with large anomalies that propagate downward from 1 mb to 100 mb with a period of about two years. AIRS stratospheric temperature anomalies are in good agreement with those obtained by MLS over a common period. Tropical mean tropospheric temperature profile anomalies appear to be totally disconnected from those of the stratosphere and closely follow El Nino La Nina activity.

Version-6↗

Precipitation Anomalies in the Tropical Indian Ocean and Possible Links to the Initiation of El Nino

A pattern of variability in precipitation and 1000mb zonal winds for the tropical Indian Ocean during, 1979 to 1999 (AtmIO mode) is described using EOFs. The AtmIO mode consists of a cross-equatorial gradient of precipitation anomalies and equatorial wind anomalies of alternating signs on the Equator. The positive phase is defined as enhanced precipitation to the In "n south of the equator, suppressed precipitation to the north, and anomalous westerlies centered on the island of Sumatra. In September-October 1981, February-March 1990, and October-December 1996 the AtmIO mod-, was positive and there was a significant 30-60 day variability in the gradient of precipitation anomalies. These cases coincided with moderate to heavy ,activity in the Madden-Jullan Oscillation (MJO). Links between the AtmIO, MJO, and El Nino are discussed.

Curtis, Scott↗