Planning for the evolution of the electric grid with a long-run marginal emission rate
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Abstract Climate change poses significant risks to large-scale infrastructure systems and brings considerable uncertainties that challenge historical planning approaches. Here we focus on how climate awareness might be better incorporated into planning and decision-making in the electric power sector. To do so, we consider lessons from decision science literature where researchers have specifically focused on how to make better decisions under uncertainty. We perform a three-part review: of decision science literature on best practices for decision-making under uncertainty, of industry practice documents to understand how new uncertainties may affect the types of decisions electric utilities are making today, and of literature on electricity sector planning under climate change to assess how lessons from decision science might fit into sector-specific analyses. We discuss how characterizations of uncertainty from the decision science literature might guide approaches in the electricity sector to appropriately capture climate-related uncertainties. We also distill three key ideas from the decision science literature that can be incorporated into electricity sector planning to manage these new uncertainties: robustness, adaptive planning, and multi-stakeholder engagement. We offer example recommendations for how these key ideas might be incorporated into one essential type of planning activity, capacity expansion.
Despite its significant advantages as a baseload, low-carbon energy source, the U.S. nuclear power industry has faced increasing difficulties in maintaining economic competitiveness in a rapidly evolving energy market. The economic conditions faced by the current fleet of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the U.S. deregulated electricity market require a concerted effort to mitigate specific cost factors. Many units are struggling to stay competitive, and some premature shutdowns have occurred. Besides, in response to the large penetration of renewable energy sources, the role of nuclear power plants as pure baseload units needs to be reconsidered. Based on these experiences, operational flexibility is considered a fundamental requirement for the next generation of nuclear reactors to be competitive in the future energy market. The deployment of advanced reactors capable of operating within a new power grid paradigm, known as the Integrated Energy System (IES) was investigated. This approach combines new reactor designs with Thermal Energy Storage (TES) technologies, allowing the nuclear reactor to maintain a steady power output without the need for constant adjustments in response to load demand fluctuations. With this configuration, the reactor operates as a baseload unit, experiencing only very gradual power transients, while the energy storage facility within the power conversion cycle acts as a peaking unit.
Scheduled maintenance is likely to be lengthy and therefore consequential for the economics of fusion power plants. The maintenance strategy that maximizes the economic value of a plant depends on internal factors such as the cost and durability of the replaceable components, the frequency and duration of the maintenance blocks, and the external factors of the electricity system in which the plant operates. Here, this paper examines the value of fusion power plants with various maintenance properties in a decarbonized United States Eastern Interconnection circa 2050. Seasonal variations in electricity supply and demand mean that certain times of year, particularly spring to early summer, are best for scheduled maintenance. Seasonality has two important consequences. First, the value of a plant can be 15% higher than what one would naively expect if value were directly proportional to its availability. Second, in some cases, replacing fractions of a component in shorter maintenance blocks spread over multiple years is better than replacing it all at once during a longer outage, even through the overall availability of the plant is lower in the former scenario.
The report “America’s Strategy to Secure the Supply Chain for a Robust Clean Energy Transition” lays out the challenges and opportunities faced by the United States in the energy supply chain as well as the federal government plans to address these challenges and opportunities. It is accompanied by several issue-specific deep dive assessments, including this one, in response to Executive Order 14017 “America’s Supply Chains,” which directs the Secretary of Energy to submit a report on supply chains for the energy sector industrial base. The Executive Order is helping the federal government to build more secure and diverse U.S. supply chains, including energy supply chains. The need to modernize and increase the capacity of the U.S. power grid is increasing due to growing population, aging infrastructure, grid resilience requirements, operational flexibility needs, and a growing portfolio of renewable energy. As part of the Paris Climate Agreement the United States has committed to reducing its net greenhouse gas emissions by 50 to 52 percent below 2005 levels in 2030 and has set a goal of 100 percent carbon pollution free electricity by 2035 (The United States of America Nationally Determined Contribution, 2021). Meeting these targets will require a significant expansion of the power system to integrate a large amount of new renewable resources (United States Department of State & United States Executive Office of the President, 2021). However, many critical components supporting the power grid have limited to no domestic manufacturing capacity and face complex challenges in supporting a rapid expansion of the grid to meet multiple objectives, including decarbonization goals. This report focuses on two key grid components: large power transformers (LPTs) and high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission.
This study developed a market-based coordination framework that allows for exchanging information on gas off-takes as well as constraints between a power sector model. This includes unit commitment, economic dispatch, and a dynamic gas network simulation model. The framework was then tested using real power- and gas-system data from Colorado.
The power sector is the largest water withdrawer in the U.S., and water availability can drive both its investment and operating decisions. Given a range of uncertain trends in the power sector, it's important to consider how water demands might evolve from both generation and load change and how the cost and availability of water might impact water source decisions. Doing so requires a detailed consideration of technology-specific water needs, water availability characterization, and scenario exploration. This presentation describes capabilities to do so in unprecedented detail and some preliminary findings about how water constraints could influence power sector expansion.
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This paper describes early experiences and example use cases applying multi-disciplinary design analysis and optimization (MDO) to the integrated design of power grids. Adapted from aerospace, MDO enables combining multiple existing tools into a coordinated optimization. Here we use MDO to simultaneously capture integrated transmission-distribution and investment-engineering trade-offs in an automated framework. Example use cases showcase prototype interactions among existing grid models using MDO and hint at the types of integrated analyses enabled by this approach. In addition, we share experiences and thoughts on grid-specific challenges and opportunities to help advance further work in this area.
This paper explores cost-optimal pathways to 100% renewable power systems for the U.S. building stock. We show that long-duration misalignments of supply and demand, spanning from multi-day to seasonal timescales, present a dominant challenge that must be addressed to meet real-time 100% renewable targets. While long-duration misalignments can be addressed through energy storage, we show that alternative and readily available solutions that are more cost-effective should be considered first. Through a techno-economic analysis, we identify cost-optimal, region-dependent, supply-side, and demand-side strategies that reduce, and in some U.S. regions eliminate, the otherwise substantial capacities and associated costs of long-duration energy storage. Investigated supply-side strategies include optimal mixes of renewable portfolios and oversized generation capacities. Considered demand-side strategies include building load flexibility and building energy efficiency investments. Our results reveal that building energy efficiency measures can reduce long-duration storage requirements at minimum total investment costs. In addition, oversizing and diversifying renewable generation can play a critical role in reducing storage requirements, remaining cost effective even when accounting for curtailed generation. We identify regionally dependent storage cost targets and show that for emerging long-duration energy storage innovations to achieve broad adoption, their costs will need to compete with the decreasing cost of renewables. The findings of this research are particularly important given that most long-duration storage technologies are currently either uneconomical, geologically constrained, or still underdeveloped.
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The world of IoT (internet of things) is spawning new control options and decision making that has not been available before. This is providing a wealth of opportunities for transactive type controls and systems that can negotiate for a common goal. This paper discusses a transactive residential neighborhood with optimization at the home level utilizing a system of agents. The real-time optimization utilizes information and modeling to optimize heat pump water heater operation in occupied homes. Data is presented showing the performance of the optimization and conclusions are drawn on next steps for development.