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NASA NTRS1988

Use of VAS data to diagnose the mesoscale environment of convective storms

The utility of VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) retrieval datasets for mesoscale analysis is explored. A detailed mesoscale air mass analysis method is presented in which VAS soundings, satellite imagery, and conventional surface data are used to diagnose mesoscale differences in air mass character. Comparisons are made with radiosonde observations of the same air mass differences. A mesoscale air mass analysis is presented with a discussion of the role that the various air masses play in subsequent convective development. In a second technique, several VAS-derived thermodynamic parameters, such as positive and negative buoyant energy, are shown to be well suited to operational forecasting of convective storm development and evolution. The derivation of these parameters and their applications in forecasting are illustrated.

Zehr, Raymond M.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The Role of Crack Formation in Chevron-Notched Four-Point Bend Specimens

The failure sequence following crack formation in a chevron-notched four-point bend 1 specimen is examined in a parametric study using the Bluhm slice synthesis model. Premature failure resulting from crack formation forces which exceed those required to propagate a crack beyond alpha (min) is examined together with the critical crack length and critical crack front length. An energy based approach is used to establish factors which forecast the tendency of such premature failure due to crack formation for any selected chevron-notched geometry. A comparative study reveals that, for constant values of alpha (1) and alpha (0), the dimensionless beam compliance and stress intensity factor are essentially independent of specimen width and thickness. The chevron tip position, alpha (0) has its primary effect on the force required to initiate a sharp crack. Small values for alpha (0) maximize the stable region length, however, the premature failure tendency is also high for smaller alpha (0) values. Improvements in premature failure resistance can be realized for larger values of alpha (0) with only a minor reduction in the stable region length. The stable region length is also maximized for larger chevron based positions, alpha (1) but the chance for premature failure is also raised. Smaller base positions improve the premature failure resistance with only minor decreases in the stable region length. Chevron geometries having a good balance of premature failure resistance, stable region length, and crack front length are 0.20 less than or equal to alpha (0) is less than or equal to 0.30 and 0.70 is less than or equal to alpha (1) is less than or equal to 0.80.

Calomino, Anthony M.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Calibration Plans for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM)

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) is an international effort led by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) of the U.S.A. and the National Space Development Agency of Japan (NASDA) for the purpose of improving research into the global water and energy cycle. GPM will improve climate, weather, and hydrological forecasts through more frequent and more accurate measurement of precipitation world-wide. Comprised of U.S. domestic and international partners, GPM will incorporate and assimilate data streams from many spacecraft with varied orbital characteristics and instrument capabilities. Two of the satellites will be provided directly by GPM, the core satellite and a constellation member. The core satellite, at the heart of GPM, is scheduled for launch in November 2007. The core will carry a conical scanning microwave radiometer, the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI), and a two-frequency cross-track-scanning radar, the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR). The passive microwave channels and the two radar frequencies of the core are carefully chosen for investigating the varying character of precipitation over ocean and land, and from the tropics to the high-latitudes. The DPR will enable microphysical characterization and three-dimensional profiling of precipitation. The GPM-provided constellation spacecraft will carry a GMI radiometer identical to that on the core spacecraft. This paper presents calibration plans for the GPM, including on-board instrument calibration, external calibration methods, and the role of ground validation. Particular emphasis is on plans for inter-satellite calibration of the GPM constellation. With its Unique instrument capabilities, the core spacecraft will serve as a calibration transfer standard to the GPM constellation. In particular the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar aboard the core will check the accuracy of retrievals from the GMI radiometer and will enable improvement of the radiometer retrievals. Observational intersections of the core with the constellation spacecraft are essential in applying this technique to the member satellites. Information from core spacecraft retrievals during intersection events will be transferred to the constellation radiometer instruments in the form of improved calibration and, with experience, improved radiometric algorithms. In preparation for the transfer standard technique, comparisons using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) with sun-synchronous radiometers have been conducted. Ongoing research involves study of critical variables in the inter-comparison, such as correlation with spatial-temporal separation of intersection events, frequency of intersection events, variable azimuth look angles, and variable resolution cells for the various sensors.

Bidwell, S. W.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Challenges of cloud-prone and rainy areas remote sensing

Provide, from space, the first global survey of cloud profiles (height, thickness) and cloud physical properties (water, ice, precipitation) needed to evaluate and improve the way clouds, moisture and energy are represented in global models used for weather forecasts and climate prediction.

remote sensing↗

NASA NTRS2014

Automating the SMAP Ground Data System to Support Lights-Out Operations

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Mission is a first tier mission in NASA's Earth Science Decadal Survey. SMAP will provide a global mapping of soil moisture and its freeze/thaw states. This mapping will be used to enhance the understanding of processes that link the terrestrial water, energy, and carbon cycles, and to enhance weather and forecast capabilities. NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory has been selected as the lead center for the development and operation of SMAP. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has an extensive history of successful deep space exploration. JPL missions have typically been large scale Class A missions with significant budget and staffing. SMAP represents a new area of JPL focus towards low cost Earth science missions. Success in this new area requires changes to the way that JPL has traditionally provided the Mission Operations System (MOS)/Ground Data System (GDS) functions. The operation of SMAP requires more routine operations activities and support for higher data rates and data volumes than have been achieved in the past. These activities must be addressed by a reduced operations team and support staff. To meet this challenge, the SMAP ground data system provides automation that will perform unattended operations, including automated commanding of the SMAP spacecraft.

GDS↗

NASA NTRS2017

Utilizing the Precessing Orbit of TRMM to Produce Hourly Corrections of Geostationary Infrared Imager Data with the VIRS Sensor

Accurate characterization of the Earth's radiant energy is critical for many climate monitoring and weather forecasting applications. For example, groups at the NASA Langley Research Center rely on stable visible- and infrared-channel calibrations in order to understand the temporal/spatial distribution of hazardous storms, as determined from an automated overshooting convective top detection algorithm. Therefore, in order to facilitate reliable, climate-quality retrievals, it is important that consistent calibration coefficients across satellite platforms are made available to the remote sensing community, and that calibration anomalies are recognized and mitigated. One such anomaly is the infrared imager brightness temperature (BT) drift that occurs for some Geostationary Earth Orbit satellite (GEOsat) instruments near local midnight. Currently the Global Space-Based Inter-Calibration System (GSICS) community uses the hyperspectral Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) sensor as a common reference to uniformly calibrate GEOsat IR imagers. However, the combination of IASI, which has a 21:30 local equator crossing time (LECT), and hyperspectral Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS; 01:30 LECT) observations are unable to completely resolve the GEOsat midnight BT bias. The precessing orbit of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS), however, allows sampling of all local hours every 46 days. Thus, VIRS has the capability to quantify the BT midnight effect observed in concurrent GEOsat imagers. First, the VIRS IR measurements are evaluated for long-term temporal stability between 2002 and 2012 by inter-calibrating with Aqua-MODIS. Second, the VIRS IR measurements are assessed for diurnal stability by inter-calibrating with Meteosat-9 (Met-9), a spin-stabilized GEOsat imager that does not manifest any diurnal dependency. In this case, the Met-9 IR imager is first adjusted with the official GSICS calibration coefficients. Then VIRS is used as a diurnal calibration reference transfer to produce hourly corrections of GEOsat IR imager BT. For the 9 three-axis stabilized GEO imagers concurrent with VIRS, the midnight effect increased the BT on average by 0.5 K (11 microns) and 0.4 K (12 microns), with a peak at approx.01:00 local time. As expected, the spin-stabilized GEOsats revealed a smaller diurnal temperature cycle (mostly < 0.2 K) with inconsistent peak hours.

Scarino, Benjamin↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Changes in Lightning Flash Size and Energy during the Intensification of Hurricanes Florence (2018) and Laura (2020)

Lightning is a useful tool in forecasting and understanding the behavior of tropical cyclones (TCs). The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) aboard the GOES-16 geostationary satellite measures a multitude of lightning parameters, such as flash extent density (FED), average flash area (AFA) and optical energy for most of North America, South America, and the Pacific Ocean. GLM has brought about an era of spaceborne measurements to track storms many miles off the coasts and has allowed for the study of lightning throughout a TCs entire lifespan. FED has been found to be indicative of strength and intensification in TCs, but optical energy is a relatively new parameter that has not been studied intensively. This presentation analyzes the relationship between rapid intensification (RI) and GLM optical energy, AFA, and FED in Hurricanes Florence (2018) and Laura (2020). Using a 24-hour time interval in which each storm underwent RI, optical energy was analyzed from the innermost 100 kilometers of the eye and then was averaged for each minute to determine if there was a relationship between optical energy, AFA, FED, and intensification. Optical energy, FED, and AFA spiked just before RI began and then fell as the storms intensified more rapidly. These parameters increased again as intensification slowed slightly, while the optical energy peaks much lower in Hurricane Laura and much higher in Hurricane Florence. While these results show a pattern in lightning in these two TCs, further investigation of parameters like updraft strength and charge separation from microwave imagery during these secondary peaks in which optical energy behaves differently than the first peak may provide further insight as to the behavior of these TCs during RI.

Kiahna Mollette↗

NASA NTRS1976

Analysis of information systems for hydropower operations: Executive summary

An analysis was performed of the operations of hydropower systems, with emphasis on water resource management, to determine how aerospace derived information system technologies can effectively increase energy output. Better utilization of water resources was sought through improved reservoir inflow forecasting based on use of hydrometeorologic information systems with new or improved sensors, satellite data relay systems, and use of advanced scheduling techniques for water release. Specific mechanisms for increased energy output were determined, principally the use of more timely and accurate short term (0-7 days) inflow information to reduce spillage caused by unanticipated dynamic high inflow events. The hydrometeorologic models used in predicting inflows were examined in detail to determine the sensitivity of inflow prediction accuracy to the many variables employed in the models, and the results were used to establish information system requirements. Sensor and data handling system capabilities were reviewed and compared to the requirements, and an improved information system concept was outlined.

Sohn, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Analysis of information systems for hydropower operations

The operations of hydropower systems were analyzed with emphasis on water resource management, to determine how aerospace derived information system technologies can increase energy output. Better utilization of water resources was sought through improved reservoir inflow forecasting based on use of hydrometeorologic information systems with new or improved sensors, satellite data relay systems, and use of advanced scheduling techniques for water release. Specific mechanisms for increased energy output were determined, principally the use of more timely and accurate short term (0-7 days) inflow information to reduce spillage caused by unanticipated dynamic high inflow events. The hydrometeorologic models used in predicting inflows were examined to determine the sensitivity of inflow prediction accuracy to the many variables employed in the models, and the results used to establish information system requirements. Sensor and data handling system capabilities were reviewed and compared to the requirements, and an improved information system concept outlined.

Sohn, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Energy Budget of the Polar Atmosphere in MERRA

Components of the atmospheric energy budget from the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) are evaluated in polar regions for the period 1979-2005 and compared with previous estimates, in situ observations, and contemporary reanalyses. Closure of the energy budget is reflected by the analysis increments term, which results from virtual enthalpy and latent heating contributions and averages -11 W/sq m over the north polar cap and -22 W/sq m over the south polar cap. Total energy tendency and energy convergence terms from MERRA agree closely with previous study for northern high latitudes but convergence exceeds previous estimates for the south polar cap by 46 percent. Discrepancies with the Southern Hemisphere transport are largest in autumn and may be related to differences in topography with earlier reanalyses. For the Arctic, differences between MERRA and other sources in TOA and surface radiative fluxes maximize in May. These differences are concurrent with the largest discrepancies between MERRA parameterized and observed surface albedo. For May, in situ observations of the upwelling shortwave flux in the Arctic are 80 W/sq m larger than MERRA, while the MERRA downwelling longwave flux is underestimated by 12 W/sq m throughout the year. Over grounded ice sheets, the annual mean net surface energy flux in MERRA is erroneously non-zero. Contemporary reanalyses from the Climate Forecast Center (CFSR) and the Interim Re-Analyses of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-I) are found to have better surface parameterizations, however these collections are also found to have significant discrepancies with observed surface and TOA energy fluxes. Discrepancies among available reanalyses underscore the challenge of reproducing credible estimates of the atmospheric energy budget in polar regions.

Cullather, Richard I.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Impacts of the Mount Pinatubo eruption on ENSO in the GEOS seasonal-to-subseasonal forecasting system

The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 introduced a perturbation of the Earth's global energy budget by increasing the stratospheric aerosol loading by an order of magnitude, with effects on the global climate. In this presentation we analyze the effects of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption on the seasonal forecast performed with Goddard Earth Observing System Seasonal-to Subseasonal (GEOS-S2S) system, an Earth System Model that includes an interactive ocean and a bulk aerosol model coupled to radiation. We performed 10-member ensembles for the year after the eruption (June 1991-May 1992) at ~0.5 horizontal resolution, with and without the inclusion of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. In GEOS-S2S, the eruption leads to ta strengthening of El Nino peaking in January 1992. The strengthening is mainly due to the weakening of the trade winds, which is caused by a attening of the temperature gradient across the Pacic due to a differential response to the volcanic forcing between the central and eastern Pacic (ocean-dynamical thermostat). This response largely depends on the assumed size for the volcanic aerosols. Indeed, we performed simulations assuming a volcanic aerosol effective radius of 0.35 m (similar to tropospheric aerosol, and the default in GEOS) and 0.6 m (closer to observations of volcanic aerosol from Pinatubo-sized eruptions). We nd that in the latter case the tropical radiative forcing is lower, since smaller aerosols scatter shortwave radiation more eciently than larger ones. Accordingly, the impact on ENSO is not statistically signicant when a larger and more realistic particle radius is assumed.

Aquila, Valentina↗

NASA NTRS2020

Windows of Opportunity for Skillful Forecasts Subseasonal to Seasonal and Beyond

There is high demand and a growing expectation for predictions of environmental conditions that go beyond 0–14-day weather forecasts with outlooks extending to one or more seasons and beyond. This is driven by the needs of the energy, water management, and agriculture sectors, to name a few. There is an increasing realization that, unlike weather forecasts, prediction skill on longer time scales can leverage specific climate phenomena or conditions for a predictable signal above the weather noise. Currently, it is understood that these conditions are intermittent in time and have spatially heterogeneous impacts on skill, hence providing strategic windows of opportunity for skillful forecasts. Research points to such windows of opportunity, including El Niño or La Niña events, active periods of the Madden–Julian oscillation, disruptions of the stratospheric polar vortex, when certain large-scale atmospheric regimes are in place, or when persistent anomalies occur in the ocean or land surface. Gains could be obtained by increasingly developing prediction tools and metrics that strategically target these specific windows of opportunity. Across the globe, reevaluating forecasts in this manner could find value in forecasts previously discarded as not skillful. Users’ expectations for prediction skill could be more adequately met, as they are better aware of when and where to expect skill and if the prediction is actionable. Given that there is still untapped potential, in terms of process understanding and prediction methodologies, it is safe to expect that in the future forecast opportunities will expand. Process research and the development of innovative methodologies will aid such progress.

Annarita Mariotti↗

NASA NTRS1975

Air transportation energy consumption - Yesterday, today, and tomorrow

The energy consumption by aviation is reviewed and projections of its growth are discussed. Forecasts of domestic passenger demand are presented, and the effect of restricted fuel supply and increased fuel prices is considered. The most promising sources for aircraft fuels, their availability and cost, and possible alternative fuels are reviewed. The energy consumption by various air and surface transportation modes is identified and compared on typical portal-to-portal trips. A measure of the indirect energy consumed by ground and air modes is defined. Historical trends in aircraft energy intensities are presented and the potential fuel savings with new technologies are discussed.

Mascy, A. C.↗

NASA NTRS2015

SMOS Soil Moisture Data Assimilation in the NASA Land Information System: Impact on LSM Initialization and NWP Forecasts

Land surface models are important components of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, partitioning incoming energy into latent and sensitive heat fluxes that affect boundary layer growth and destabilization. During warm-season months, diurnal heating and convective initiation depend strongly on evapotranspiration and available boundary layer moisture, which are substantially affected by soil moisture content. Therefore, to properly simulate warm-season processes in NWP models, an accurate initialization of the land surface state is important for accurately depicting the exchange of heat and moisture between the surface and boundary layer. In this study, soil moisture retrievals from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite radiometer are assimilated into the Noah Land Surface Model via an Ensemble Kalman Filter embedded within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) software framework. The output from LIS-Noah is subsequently used to initialize runs of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) NWP model. The impact of assimilating SMOS retrievals is assessed by initializing the WRF model with LIS-Noah output obtained with and without SMOS data assimilation. The southeastern United States is used as the domain for a preliminary case study. During the summer months, there is extensive irrigation in the lower Mississippi Valley for rice and other crops. The irrigation is not represented in the meteorological forcing used to drive the LIS-Noah integration, but the irrigated areas show up clearly in the SMOS soil moisture retrievals, resulting in a case with a large difference in initial soil moisture conditions. The impact of SMOS data assimilation on both Noah soil moisture fields and on short-term (0-48 hour) WRF weather forecasts will be presented.

Blankenship, Clay↗

NASA NTRS1995

Thermal barrier coatings issues in advanced land-based gas turbines

The Department of Energy's Advanced Turbine System (ATS) program is aimed at forecasting the development of a new generation of land-based gas turbine systems with overall efficiencies significantly beyond those of current state-of-the-art machines, as well as greatly increased times between inspection and refurbishment, improved environmental impact, and decreased cost. The proposed duty cycle of ATS turbines will require the use of different criteria in the design of the materials for the critical hot gas path components. In particular, thermal barrier coatings will be an essential feature of the hot gas path components in these machines. While such coatings are routinely used in high-performance aircraft engines and are becoming established in land-based turbines, the requirements of the ATS turbine application are sufficiently different that significant improvements in thermal barrier coating technology will be necessary. In particular, it appears that thermal barrier coatings will have to function on all airfoil sections of the first stage vanes and blades to provide the significant temperature reduction required. In contrast, such coatings applied to the blades and vances of advanced aircraft engines are intended primarily to reduce air cooling requirements and extend component lifetime; failure of those coatings can be tolerated without jeopardizing mechanical or corrosion performance. A major difference is that in ATS turbines these components will be totally reliant on thermal barrier coatings which will, therefore, need to be highly reliable even over the leading edges of first stage blades. Obviously, the ATS program provides a very challenging opportunity for TBC's, and involves some significant opportunities to extend this technology.

Parks, W. P.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Meteoroid Environment Modeling: the Meteoroid Engineering Model and Shower Forecasting

The meteoroid environment is often divided conceptually into meteor showers plus a sporadic background component. The sporadic complex poses the bulk of the risk to spacecraft, but showers can produce significant short-term enhancements of the meteoroid flux. The Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) has produced two environment models to handle these cases: the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) and an annual meteor shower forecast. Both MEM and the forecast are used by multiple manned spaceflight projects in their meteoroid risk evaluation, and both tools are being revised to incorporate recent meteor velocity, density, and timing measurements. MEM describes the sporadic meteoroid complex and calculates the flux, speed, and directionality of the meteoroid environment relative to a user-supplied spacecraft trajectory, taking the spacecraft's motion into account. MEM is valid in the inner solar system and offers near-Earth and cis-lunar environments. While the current version of MEM offers a nominal meteoroid environment corresponding to a single meteoroid bulk density, the next version of MEMR3 will offer both flux uncertainties and a density distribution in addition to a revised near-Earth environment. We have updated the near-Earth meteor speed distribution and have made the first determination of uncertainty in this distribution. We have also derived a meteor density distribution from the work of Kikwaya et al. (2011). The annual meteor shower forecast takes the form of a report and data tables that can be used in conjunction with an existing MEM assessment. Fluxes are typically quoted to a constant limiting kinetic energy in order to comport with commonly used ballistic limit equations. For the 2017 annual forecast, the MEO substantially revised the list of showers and their characteristics using 14 years of meteor flux measurements from the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR). Defunct or insignificant showers were removed and the temporal profiles of many showers were improved. In 2016 the MEO also adapted the forecast to the cislunar environment for the first time. We plan to make additional improvements to the model in the next two years using optical meteor flux measurements and mass indices.

Moorhead, Althea V.↗

NASA NTRS2016

MISTiC Winds, a Micro-Satellite Constellation Approach to High Resolution Observations of the Atmosphere Using Infrared Sounding and 3D Winds Measurements

MISTiC(TM) Winds is an approach to improve short-term weather forecasting based on a miniature high resolution, wide field, thermal emission spectrometry instrument that will provide global tropospheric vertical profiles of atmospheric temperature and humidity at high (3-4 km) horizontal and vertical ( 1 km) spatial resolution. MISTiCs extraordinarily small size, payload mass of less than 15 kg, and minimal cooling requirements can be accommodated aboard a 27U-class CubeSat or an ESPA-Class micro-satellite. Low fabrication and launch costs enable a LEO sunsynchronous sounding constellation that would collectively provide frequent IR vertical profiles and vertically resolved atmospheric motion vector wind observations in the troposphere. These observations are highly complementary to present and emerging environmental observing systems, and would provide a combination of high vertical and horizontal resolution not provided by any other environmental observing system currently in operation. The spectral measurements that would be provided by MISTiC Winds are similar to those of NASA's AIRS that was built by BAE Systems and operates aboard the AQUA satellite. These new observations, when assimilated into high resolution numerical weather models, would revolutionize short-term and severe weather forecasting, save lives, and support key economic decisions in the energy, air transport, and agriculture arenasat much lower cost than providing these observations from geostationary orbit. In addition, this observation capability would be a critical tool for the study of transport processes for water vapor, clouds, pollution, and aerosols. Key remaining technical risks are being reduced through laboratory and airborne testing under NASA's Instrument Incubator Program.

Maschhoff, K. R.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Meteoroid Environment Modeling: the Meteoroid Engineering Model and Shower Forecasting

Moorhead, Althea V.↗