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Mathematical Models of Energy Storage Technologies Used with Coal FIRST Power Generators on IDAES
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Multiscale Optimization of Integrated Energy Systems Using Machine Learning Models for Market Interactions
The presentation was delivered at the 2022 American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AIChE) annual meeting.
Deriving Simulation Parameters for Storage-Type Water Heaters Using Ratings Data Produced from the Uniform Energy Factor Test Procedure: Preprint
Building energy modeling (BEM) is commonly used to estimate the energy usage of residential buildings. Uses for BEM include calculating home energy ratings, demonstrating compliance with performance-based energy codes, and establishing whether designs meet voluntary program requirements, such as ENERGY STAR® qualified homes. BEM requires simulating subsystems within the building, including storage-type water heaters. To properly simulate the in-situ performance of residential storage water heaters, it is necessary to determine key water heater parameters, including the overall heat loss coefficient (UA) and conversion efficiency (?c) of the water heater, based on the rated efficiency of the water heater. The testing procedure and rating standard for residential water heaters have recently changed: the new rating standard provides a Uniform Energy Factor (UEF) rather than the Energy Factor (EF) used previously. This paper discusses how to derive the necessary model parameters from the ratings data produced from the latest test procedure.
Automatic and rapid calibration of urban building energy models by learning from energy performance database
Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) is attracting increasing attention in the energy modeling filed. Unlike modeling a single building using detailed building systems information, UBEM generally uses limited high-level building stock data to infer default assumptions about building characteristics and operations. Additionally, this practice inherently brings uncertainty to UBEM. This study introduced a novel method of automatic and rapid calibration of UBEM based on the annual electricity and natural gas energy use data by learning the correlations between crucial model input parameters and the building energy use from the reference building models. A case study was presented to calibrate 72 large office buildings built before 1978 in San Francisco. Seventeen model parameters were selected and Monte Carlo sampling was used to create 1000 samples that reasonably represent the parameter space. Then 1000 simulations were performed for the reference building model to create an energy performance database. The results showed that by learning from the energy performance database, it took less than four simulation runs on average to calibrate a building model. After the calibration, the distributions of each parameter were obtained to replace their single predefined default values. For example, the default lighting power density of 21.39 W/m 2 was calibrated to be 7.50 W/m 2 on average. The case study successfully demonstrated the effectiveness of the novel calibration method for UBEM in the mild climate. The method will be further tested in future for other climate zones and other building types.
Day-ahead continuous double auction-based peer-to-peer energy trading platform incorporating trading losses and network utilisation fee
Integration of distributed energy resources, such as photovoltaic solar (PV), introduces new opportunities to establish local energy market frameworks to improve renewable energy utilisation in residential sectors. Such peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading refers to a local market structure where customers (and prosumers) interact to share excess PV generation to enhance the individual and community social welfare. In this work, a day-ahead continuous double auction (CDA)-based P2P market structure considering network losses and network utilisation fees was designed. Day-ahead PV energy is modelled using fractional integral polynomials and the output is forecasted using an autoregressive integrated moving average model for each market interval. Based on the customer load and excess PV energy, the CDA market is cleared using a bid/ask matching mechanism. The performance of the P2P market was evaluated by computing different welfare metrics while analysing the effect of network constraints. The results show that the designed CDA-based P2P market structure increases the social welfare of all participants by an average of 17.75% compared to the baseline for the presented cases. Moreover, the impact of the forecasting error between the day-ahead and real-time market was also quantified.
Towards universal unfolding of detector effects in high-energy physics using denoising diffusion probabilistic models
Correcting for detector effects in experimental data, particularly through unfolding, is critical for enabling precision measurements in high-energy physics. However, traditional unfolding methods face challenges in scalability, flexibility, and dependence on simulations. We introduce a novel approach to multidimensional object-wise unfolding using conditional Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (cDDPM). Our method utilizes the cDDPM for a non-iterative, flexible posterior sampling approach, incorporating distribution moments as conditioning information, which exhibits a strong inductive bias that allows it to generalize to unseen physics processes without explicitly assuming the underlying distribution. Our results highlight the potential of this method as a step towards a "universal" unfolding tool that reduces dependence on truth-level assumptions, while enabling the unfolding of a wide range of measured distributions with improved adaptability and accuracy.
Subsurface hydrological controls on the short-term effects of hurricanes on nitrate–nitrogen runoff loading: a case study of Hurricane Ida using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (v2.1)
When the nutrient level in the soil surpasses vegetation demand, nutrient losses due to surface runoff and subsurface leaching are the major reasons for the deterioration of water quality. The lower Mississippi River basin (LMRB) is one of the sub-basins that deliver the highest nitrogen loads to the Gulf of Mexico. Potential changes in episodic events induced by hurricanes may exacerbate water quality issue in the future. However, uncertainties in modeling the hydrologic response to hurricanes may limit the modeling of nutrient losses during such events. Using a machine learning approach, we calibrated the land component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), or ELM, version 2.1, based on the water table depth (WTD) of a calibrated 3D subsurface hydrology model. While the overall performance of the calibrated ELM is satisfactory, some discrepancies in WTD remain in slope areas with low precipitation due to the missing lateral flow process in ELM. Simulations including biogeochemistry performed using ELM with and without model calibration showed important influences of soil hydrology, precipitation intensity, and runoff parameterization on the magnitude of nitrogen runoff loss and the leaching pathway. Despite such sensitivities, both ELM simulations produced reduced WTD and increased runoff and accelerated nitrate–nitrogen runoff loading during Hurricane Ida in August 2021, consistent with the observations. With observations suggesting more pronounced effects of Hurricane Ida on nitrogen runoff than the simulations, we identified factors for model improvement to provide a useful tool for studying hurricane-induced nutrient losses in the LMRB region.
SCUC-DER Integration Report: Integrating Distributed Energy Resources (DER) Using Advanced Unit Commitment Models and DER Aggregation Methodologies
Distributed energy resources (DERs) are continuing to grow due to regulatory, policy, and market shifts, and it needs to be ensured that small DERs are given a level playing field with traditional resources. Legacy market processes such as unit-commitment problems were designed for a power grid consisting largely of centralized power plants. In contrast, DERs consist of many small devices with distinct operating characteristics that may or may not be connected at the transmission interconnection points, limiting their visibility to the independent system operators (ISOs) who operate wholesale electricity markets. This report details the development and initial results from a simulation platform that integrates state-of-the-art security-constrained unit commitment software, detailed feeder models, and a DER aggregator model to quantify potential DER integration issues. Quantitative results to date illustrate potential infeasible scheduling solutions from SCUC when the DERA includes aggregations of energy-limited energy storage resources. Likewise, if aggregations are not penalized for dispatch deviations, they may have incentives to deviate from the SCUC-determined resource schedules. Assumptions about the amount of aggregated demand response resources (DRRs) and the ability of DERAs to follow profit incentives have an important impact – DRRs have significant flexibility and can typically feasibly meet their SCUC schedule, but on the other hand, their profit incentives can cause unscheduled increases in load before and after DRR dispatch. Computation time results on the SCUC solver and simulation platform only show a modest increase in SCUC solution time as the number of DERAs is increased, but results to date only reflect the RTS-GMLC test system; results may show more significant solver slowdown in larger transmission systems. The largest contribution to simulation time is attributed to the DERA offer generation method, which is suggested for future improvements.
Optimization-Based Model Reduction Scheme for Renewable Energy Power Plants Using Standardized Testing Scenarios
This paper presents an optimization-based model reduction scheme for renewable energy (RE) power plants consisting of inverter-based resources (IBRs) operating in grid-following (GFL) or grid-forming (GFM) modes. More importantly, the datasets feeding the optimization-based model reduction scheme are generated and re-used through the standardized grid-interactive testing scenarios. Particularly, the proposed scheme makes use of the power plant point of common coupling (PCC) measurements of various quantities specified by standardized tests (e.g., voltage and frequency ride through) as per IEEE 2800, to estimate the parameters of the reduced-order model such that its dynamic performance aligns with the original detailed power plant model. The proposed model reduction approach does not require the parameters of individual IBRs and using standardized test data as input to the formulated optimization problem simplifies the reduced-order modelling scheme. Extensive case studies following standardized test scenarios verified the remarkable accuracy of the proposed approach.
Comparison of Optimal Energy Management Strategies Using Dynamic Programming, Model Predictive Control, and Constant Velocity Prediction
Due to the recent advancements in autonomous vehicle technology, future vehicle velocity predictions are becoming more robust which allows fuel economy (FE) improvements in hybrid electric vehicles through optimal energy management strategies (EMS). A realworld highway drive cycle (DC) and a controls-oriented 2017 Toyota Prius Prime model are used to study potential FE improvements. We proposed three important metrics for comparison: (1) perfect full drive cycle prediction using dynamic programming, (2) 10-second prediction horizon model predictive control (MPC), and (3) 10-second constant velocity prediction. These different velocity predictions are put into an optimal EMS derivation algorithm to derive optimal engine torque and engine speed. The results show that the constant velocity prediction algorithm outperformed the baseline control strategy but underperformed the MPC strategy with an average 1.58% and 2.45% of FE improvement with highway and city-highway DC. Also, using a 10-second prediction window MPC strategy provided FE improvement results close to the full drive cycle prediction case. MPC has the potential to achieve 60%-65% and 70% - 80% of global FE improvement over highway and city-highway DC respectively.
Comparison of Optimal Energy Management Strategies Using Dynamic Programming, Model Predictive Control, and Constant Velocity Prediction
Due to the recent advancements in autonomous vehicle technology, future vehicle velocity predictions are becoming more robust which allows fuel economy (FE) improvements in hybrid electric vehicles through optimal energy management strategies (EMS). A real- world highway drive cycle (DC) and a controls-oriented 2017 Toyota Prius Prime model are used to study potential FE improvements. We proposed three important metrics for comparison: (1) perfect full drive cycle prediction using dynamic programming, (2) 10-second prediction horizon model predictive control (MPC), and (3) 10-second constant velocity prediction. These different velocity predictions are put into an optimal EMS derivation algorithm to derive optimal engine torque and engine speed. The results show that the constant velocity prediction algorithm outperformed the baseline control strategy but underperformed the MPC strategy with an average 1.58% and 2.45% of FE improvement with highway and city-highway DC. Also, using a 10-second prediction window MPC strategy provided FE improvement results close to the full drive cycle prediction case. MPC has the potential to achieve 60%-65% and 70% - 80% of global FE improvement over highway and city-highway DC respectively.
Wind Turbine Maintenance Costs: Assessing the Potential of Gear Oil Improvements
Wind turbine operations & maintenance (O&M) costs constitute a sizable portion of total energy cost for wind power. There are many components in a utility-scale wind turbine that need to be lubricated with either oil or grease. This study uses gearbox oil as an example and assesses how lubricant technology improvements may impact wind turbine power production and levelized cost of energy. Using the modeling tools (i.e., WOMBAT, reV, and SAM) developed at National Renewable Energy Laboratory and lubrication oil technology scenarios defined based on inputs provided by ExxonMobil and industry stakeholders, we quantify the potential for increasing energy production and reducing maintenance costs across the current and future U.S. fleet of wind turbines as a result of improvements in lubrication technologies. The modeled improvements reduce the median levelized cost of energy by 1-2% across the U.S. fleet. Cumulative saving from gear oil technology improvements in 2050 for U.S. fleet is estimated to be approximately $6 billion. Extending the lubricant replacement interval has a larger impact on total cost and energy production than reducing lubricant cost.
OSEII (Open-Source Energy Intensity Indicators)
Energy Intensity Indicators provides a framework to quantify how energy efficiency may or may not be affecting energy use relative to other economic trends. The model enables the decomposition of energy use for economic sectors through the use of a Log Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model. The LMDI methodology decomposes energy use into three main categories: activity, structure and intensity (i.e. energy efficiency). A user can thus explain changes to overall energy use in a sector through changes to sector output (activity), structural shifts within sectors (e.g. across transportation modes), and efficiency of energy use in that sector.
Optimizing DER Deployment for Climate, Health, Resilience, and Energy Bill Benefits Using the REopt Model
Climate change, public health, and resilience to power outages are of critical concern to local governments, federal agencies, and the private sector, and are increasingly motivating investments in distributed energy resources (DERs). However, designing a solar-plus-storage system to co-optimize for climate, health, resilience, and energy bill benefits requires complex trade-offs. To address this need, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory has integrated climate and health impacts of grid-purchased electricity and on-site fuel consumption into the publicly-available REopt web tool and API - a techno-economic model that determines the cost-optimal DER system sizes and dispatch strategy. This presentation will provide an overview of the tool's methodology, datasets, and capabilities, including costing emissions into system sizing and dispatch and setting emissions reductions targets. Results of previous work will demonstrate the use of new emissions accounting capabilities by quantifying the impact of including climate and health costs on the optimal resilient microgrid configurations for a hospital, school, and warehouse across 14 U.S. cities.
Electron-beam energy reconstruction for neutrino oscillation measurements
Neutrinos exist in one of three types or ‘flavours’—electron, muon and tau neutrinos—and oscillate from one flavour to another when propagating through space. This phenomena is one of the few that cannot be described using the standard model of particle physics (reviewed in ref. 1), and so its experimental study can provide new insight into the nature of our Universe (reviewed in ref. 2). Neutrinos oscillate as a function of their propagation distance (L) divided by their energy (E). Therefore, experiments extract oscillation parameters by measuring their energy distribution at different locations. As accelerator-based oscillation experiments cannot directly measure E, the interpretation of these experiments relies heavily on phenomenological models of neutrino–nucleus interactions to infer E. Here we exploit the similarity of electron–nucleus and neutrino–nucleus interactions, and use electron scattering data with known beam energies to test energy reconstruction methods and interaction models. We find that even in simple interactions where no pions are detected, only a small fraction of events reconstruct to the correct incident energy. More importantly, widely used interaction models reproduce the reconstructed energy distribution only qualitatively and the quality of the reproduction varies strongly with beam energy. This shows both the need and the pathway to improve current models to meet the requirements of next-generation, high-precision experiments such as Hyper-Kamiokande (Japan) and DUNE (USA).
Predicting industrial building energy consumption with statistical and machine-learning models informed by physical system parameters
The industrial sector consumes about one-third of global energy, making them a frequent target for energy use reduction. Variation in energy usage is observed with weather conditions, as space conditioning needs to change seasonally, and with production, energy-using equipment is directly tied to production rate. Previous models were based on engineering analyses of equipment and relied on site-specific details. Others consisted of single-variable regressors that did not capture all contributions to energy consumption. Further, new modeling techniques could be applied to rectify these weaknesses. Applying data from 45 different manufacturing plants obtained from industrial energy audits, a supervised machine-learning model is developed to create a general predictor for industrial building energy consumption. The model uses features of air enthalpy, solar radiation, and wind speed to predict weather-dependency; motor, steam, and compressed air system parameters to capture support equipment contributions; and operating schedule, production rate, number of employees, and floor area to determine production-dependency. Results showed that a model that used a linear regressor over a transformed feature space could outperform a support vector machine and utilize features more representative of physical systems. Using informed parameters to build a reliable predictor will more accurately characterize a manufacturing facility's energy savings opportunities.
Climate change impacts on the energy system: a model comparison
Increasing renewable energy use is an essential strategy for mitigating climate change. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of renewable energy to climatic conditions means that the energy system’s vulnerability to climate change can also become larger. In this research, we used two integrated assessment models and data from four climate models to analyse climate change impacts on primary energy use at a global and regional scale under a low-level (RCP2.6) and a medium-level (RCP6.0) climate change scenario. The impacts are analysed on the energy system focusing on four renewable sources (wind, solar, hydropower, and biomass). Globally, small climate impacts on renewable primary energy use are found in both models (5% for RCP2.6 and 6% for RCP6.0). These impacts lead to a decrease in the use of fossil sources for most regions, especially for North America and Europe under the RCP60 scenario. Overall, IMAGE and GCAM provide a similar signal impact response for most regions. E.g. in Asia (excluding China and India), climate change induces an increase in wind and hydropower use under the RCP6.0 scenarios; however, for India, a decrease in solar energy use can be expected under both scenarios and models.