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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2006

Efficient Agent-Based Cluster Ensembles

Numerous domains ranging from distributed data acquisition to knowledge reuse need to solve the cluster ensemble problem of combining multiple clusterings into a single unified clustering. Unfortunately current non-agent-based cluster combining methods do not work in a distributed environment, are not robust to corrupted clusterings and require centralized access to all original clusterings. Overcoming these issues will allow cluster ensembles to be used in fundamentally distributed and failure-prone domains such as data acquisition from satellite constellations, in addition to domains demanding confidentiality such as combining clusterings of user profiles. This paper proposes an efficient, distributed, agent-based clustering ensemble method that addresses these issues. In this approach each agent is assigned a small subset of the data and votes on which final cluster its data points should belong to. The final clustering is then evaluated by a global utility, computed in a distributed way. This clustering is also evaluated using an agent-specific utility that is shown to be easier for the agents to maximize. Results show that agents using the agent-specific utility can achieve better performance than traditional non-agent based methods and are effective even when up to 50% of the agents fail.

Agogino, Adrian↗
DOE OSTI2025

Joint state-parameter estimation for the reduced fracture model via the united filter

Here, in this paper, we introduce an effective United Filter method for jointly estimating the solution state and physical parameters in flow and transport problems within fractured porous media. Fluid flow and transport in fractured porous media are critical in subsurface hydrology, geophysics, and reservoir geomechanics. Reduced fracture models, which represent fractures as lower-dimensional interfaces, enable efficient multi-scale simulations. However, reduced fracture models also face accuracy challenges due to modeling errors and uncertainties in physical parameters such as permeability and fracture geometry. To address these challenges, we propose a United Filter method, which integrates the Ensemble Score Filter (EnSF) for state estimation with the Direct Filter for parameter estimation. EnSF, based on a score-based diffusion model framework, produces ensemble representations of the state distribution without deep learning. Meanwhile, the Direct Filter, a recursive Bayesian inference method, estimates parameters directly from state observations. The United Filter combines these methods iteratively: EnSF estimates are used to refine parameter values, which are then fed back to improve state estimation. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the United Filter method surpasses the state-of-the-art Augmented Ensemble Kalman Filter, delivering more accurate state and parameter estimation for reduced fracture models. This framework also provides a robust and efficient solution for PDE-constrained inverse problems with uncertainties and sparse observations.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2026

Active operator learning with predictive uncertainty quantification for partial differential equations

With the increased prevalence of neural operators being used to provide rapid solutions to partial differential equations (PDEs), understanding the accuracy of model predictions and the associated error levels is necessary for deploying reliable surrogate models in scientific applications. Existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) frameworks employ ensembles or Bayesian methods, which can incur substantial computational costs during both training and inference. Here, we propose a lightweight predictive UQ method tailored for Deep operator networks (DeepONets) that also generalizes to other operator networks. Numerical experiments on linear and nonlinear PDEs demonstrate that the framework’s uncertainty estimates are unbiased and provide accurate out-of-distribution uncertainty predictions with a sufficiently large training dataset. Our framework provides fast inference and uncertainty estimates that can efficiently drive outer-loop analyses that would be prohibitively expensive with conventional solvers. We demonstrate how predictive uncertainties can be used in the context of Bayesian optimization and active learning problems to yield improvements in accuracy and data-efficiency for outer-loop optimization procedures. In the active learning setup, we extend the framework to Fourier Neural Operators (FNO) and describe a generalized method for other operator networks. To enable real-time deployment, we introduce an inference strategy based on precomputed trunk outputs and a sparse placement matrix, reducing evaluation time by more than a factor of five. Our method provides a practical route to uncertainty-aware operator learning in time-sensitive settings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Earth System Reanalysis in Support of Climate Model Improvements

Recent climate model developments, established through increased model resolution, have led to substantial improvements in model simulations of the time-evolving, coupled Earth system and its subcomponents. However, regardless of resolution, climate models will always produce climate features and variability that differ from the real world and will be prone to biases. This is due to many remaining uncertainties, such as in parametric and structural model uncertainty, in the initial conditions prescribed, and in the prescribed (scenario) forcing which varies on decadal to centennial timescales. Further model improvements are expected to arise specifically from improved representation of physical processes realized through model-data fusion. This will create an unprecedented opportunity to better exploit a large array of Earth observations, from in situ measurements to weather radars and satellite observations, as the resolved scales of the models approach those of the observations. For this, climate DA will be the central tool to bring models and observations into consistency, by improving initial conditions, inferring uncertain model parameters and structure, and quantifying uncertainty. Generally, there will be advantages and complementarities of adjoint-based smoother approaches, ensemble-based filter approaches, or new ML-inspired approaches. Yet, the ever-increasing model resolution will present growing challenges arising from computational cost, calling for new ways of performing data assimilation and model optimization. Using the complementarity in a hybrid approach, blending tools and concepts from variational, ensemble and ML methods might be what is required in the future. In this context ML could be important to handle non-linear responses, and to better approximate non-Gaussian distributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advanced Semi-Supervised Learning with Uncertainty Estimation for Phase Identification in Distribution Systems

The integration of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) into power distribution networks generates valuable data for tasks such as phase identification; however, the limited and unreliable availability of labeled data in the form of customer phase connectivity presents challenges. To address this issue, we propose a semi-supervised learning (SSL) framework that effectively leverages labeled and unlabeled data. Our approach incorporates self-training, label spreading, and Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) to enhance phase identification with AMI data. Our method uses an ensemble of multilayer perceptron classifiers in a self-training setup, iteratively adding high-confidence pseudo-labels to improve robustness. We also apply label spread to propagate labels based on data similarity, which enhances generalization across diverse distributions. In addition, we employ a BNNs with uncertainty estimation, boosting confidence in predictions and reducing phase identification errors. In our case study, we achieved approximately 98% +/- 0.08 accuracy with uncertainty using minimal and unreliable labeled data from a real U.S. utility, Duquesne Light Company. Our SSL approach, combined with uncertainty estimation, provides an efficient solution for phase identification in AMI data, ultimately improving the reliability of smart grid applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advanced Semi-Supervised Learning With Uncertainty Estimation for Phase Identification in Distribution Systems

The integration of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) into power distribution networks generates valuable data for tasks such as phase identification; however, the limited and unreliable availability of labeled data in the form of customer phase connectivity presents challenges. To address this issue, we propose a semi-supervised learning (SSL) framework that effectively leverages labeled and unlabeled data. Our approach incorporates self-training, label spreading, and Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) to enhance phase identification with AMI data. Our method uses an ensemble of multilayer perceptron classifiers in a self-training setup, iteratively adding high-confidence pseudo-labels to improve robustness. We also apply label spread to propagate labels based on data similarity, which enhances generalization across diverse distributions. In addition, we employ a BNNs with uncertainty estimation, boosting confidence in predictions and reducing phase identification errors. In our case study, we achieved approximately 98% +/- 0.08 accuracy with uncertainty using minimal and unreliable labeled data from a real U.S. utility, Duquesne Light Company. Our SSL approach, combined with uncertainty estimation, provides an efficient solution for phase identification in AMI data, ultimately improving the reliability of smart grid applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1990

Ensemble Monte Carlo characterization of graded Al(x)Ga(1-x)As heterojunction barriers

The current-voltage characteristics of graded Al(x)Ga(1-x)As heterojunction barriers were investigated using a self-consistent ensemble Monte Carlo method. Results are presented for barriers with two doping levels (10 to the 15th/cu cm and 10 to the 17th/cu cm) and two barrier heights (100 and 265 meV). It was found that the lower barrier structure exhibited little rectification at room temperature at both doping levels, while the higher barrier exhibited considerable rectification. The structures with the lower doping value exhibited a smaller current in both forward and reverse regions, due to space-charge effect. The results of studies of the energy and momentum distribution functions along the barrier indicate that the assumption of drifted Maxwellian distribution used in energy-momentum models is not justified for Gamma valley electrons.

Kamoua, R.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Aerosol Measurements of the Fine and Ultrafine Particle Content of Lunar Regolith

We report the first quantitative measurements of the ultrafine (20 to 100 nm) and fine (100 nm to 20 m) particulate components of Lunar surface regolith. The measurements were performed by gas-phase dispersal of the samples, and analysis using aerosol diagnostic techniques. This approach makes no a priori assumptions about the particle size distribution function as required by ensemble optical scattering methods, and is independent of refractive index and density. The method provides direct evaluation of effective transport diameters, in contrast to indirect scattering techniques or size information derived from two-dimensional projections of high magnification-images. The results demonstrate considerable populations in these size regimes. In light of the numerous difficulties attributed to dust exposure during the Apollo program, this outcome is of significant importance to the design of mitigation technologies for future Lunar exploration.

Greenberg, Paul S.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Use of an OSSE to Evaluate Background Error Covariances Estimated by the 'NMC Method'

The NMC method has proven utility for prescribing approximate background-error covariances required by variational data assimilation systems. Here, untunedNMCmethod estimates are compared with explicitly determined error covariances produced within an OSSE context by exploiting availability of the true simulated states. Such a comparison provides insights into what kind of rescaling is required to render the NMC method estimates usable. It is shown that rescaling of variances and directional correlation lengths depends greatly on both pressure and latitude. In particular, some scaling coefficients appropriate in the Tropics are the reciprocal of those in the Extratropics. Also, the degree of dynamic balance is grossly overestimated by the NMC method. These results agree with previous examinations of the NMC method which used ensembles as an alternative for estimating background-error statistics.

Data Assimilation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Wind-Tunnel and Flight Unsteady Pressure Environments for the Ares I-X Flight Test Vehicle

Wind-tunnel testing of highly-instrumented rigid models is the current standard for the estimation of unsteady environments acting on a launch vehicle during ascent. However, uncertainties are present in how well these constant condition wind-tunnel data model the unsteady environments for a full-scale launch vehicle during accelerating flight. The Ares I-X wind-tunnel and flight tests provided rich data sets for comparative analysis that have been used to develop answers to the question of tunnel-to-flight validity and uncertainty. In this paper, additional comparisons are presented for the unsteady pressure data acquired during wind-tunnel and flight testing to describe current methods that are used to evaluate preflight predictions. Utilizing these methods to generate ensembles of flight-comparable realizations from wind-tunnel data is shown to yield fluctuating magnitudes and spectra that compare well with flight data for the Ares I-X flight test vehicle throughout the transonic flight regime.

buffet↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Wind-Tunnel and Flight Unsteady Pressure Environments for the Ares I-X Flight Test Vehicle

Wind-tunnel testing of highly-instrumented rigid models is the current standard for the estimation of unsteady environments acting on a launch vehicle during ascent. However, uncertainties are present in how well these constant condition wind-tunnel data model the unsteady environments for a full-scale launch vehicle during accelerating flight. The Ares I-X wind-tunnel and flight tests provided rich data sets for comparative analysis that have been used to develop answers to the question of tunnel-to-flight validity and uncertainty. In this paper, additional comparisons are presented for the unsteady pressure data acquired during wind-tunnel and flight testing to describe current methods that are used to evaluate preflight predictions. Utilizing these methods to generate ensembles of flight-comparable realizations from wind-tunnel data is shown to yield fluctuating magnitudes and spectra that compare well with flight data for the Ares I-X flight test vehicle throughout the transonic flight regime.

buffet↗
NASA NTRS1980

Project FIRES - Firefighters Integrated Response Equipment System. Volume 3: Protective Ensemble Design and Procurement Specification, Phase 1B

Each of the subsystems comprising the protective ensemble for firefighters is described. These include: (1) the garment system which includes turnout gear, helmets, faceshields, coats, pants, gloves, and boots; (2) the self-contained breathing system; (3) the lighting system; and (4) the communication system. The design selection rationale is discussed and the drawings used to fabricate the prototype ensemble are provided. The specifications presented were developed using the requirements and test method of the protective ensemble standard. Approximate retail prices are listed.

Abeles, F. J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Avoiding pitfalls in molecular simulation of vapor sorption: Example of propane and isobutane in metal–organic frameworks for adsorption cooling applications

This study introduces recommendations for conducting molecular simulations of vapor adsorption, with an emphasis on enhancing the accuracy, reproducibility, and comparability of results. The first aspect we address is consistency in the implementation of some details of typical molecular models, including tail corrections and cutoff distances, due to their significant influence on generated data. We highlight the importance of explicitly calculating the saturation pressures at relevant temperatures using methods such as Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo simulations and illustrate some pitfalls in extrapolating saturation pressures using this method. For grand canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) simulations, the input fugacity is usually calculated using an equation of state, which often requires the critical parameters of the fluid. We show the importance of using critical parameters derived from the simulation with the same model to ensure internal consistency between the simulated explicit adsorbate phase and the implicit bulk phase in GCMC. We show the advantages of presenting isotherms on a relative pressure scale to facilitate easier comparison among models and with experiment. Extending these guidelines to a practical case study, we evaluate the performance of various isoreticular metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) in adsorption cooling applications. This includes examining the advantages of using propane and isobutane as working fluids and identifying MOFs with a superior performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Resolving local ordering and structure in Mn x Ge 1- x Te alloys through thermodynamic ensembles of pair distribution functions

Characterizing local bonding environments in complex materials is essential for understanding and optimizing their properties. Equally as important is the ability to predict local motifs as a function of synthesis conditions, enhancing chemists’ ability to design properties into materials. In this study, we present an approach to leverage statistical mechanics to generate temperature- and energy-informed ensemble averaged pair distribution functions (PDFs). This method, which we have named Thermodynamic Ensemble Averages of PDFs for Ordering and Transformations (TEAPOT), utilizes density functional theory (DFT) to relax supercells while incorporating energetic penalties for local order, enabling accurate and computationally efficient analysis of local structure. We apply this method to the neutron PDF measurements of the pseudobinary MnTe–GeTe (MGT) alloy, demonstrating its capability to resolve complex local distortions and chemical ordering. Our results reveal detailed insights into phase transformations and local distortions driven by Mn substitution. For compositions that globally present as rock salt, our analysis reveals that Ge coordination geometry is heavily impacted by synthesis temperature. We propose that high temperature synthesis conditions promote a lowered Ge polyhedra distortion, promoting high charge carrier mobility due to the alignment of local and global structure. Incorporating statistical mechanics and computation into experimental analysis thus guides synthesis of tailored local structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bundling measures for food systems transformation: a global, multimodel assessment

Background Current food systems leave one in ten individuals at risk of hunger while driving unsustainable environmental impacts. Inaction risks further exacerbating negative impacts on both human and planetary health. These challenges emerge from complex system interactions, requiring approaches that engage with this complexity and consider how transformation measures interact across food systems. We aimed to quantify the magnitude and uncertainty of the impacts of key food systems transformation measures both individually and in a bundle using an ensemble of global economic models. Methods In this global multimodel assessment, we applied an ensemble of ten state-of-the-art global economic models to evaluate the potential of four key measures in transforming food systems: increasing agricultural productivity, halving food loss and waste, shifting towards healthier diets, and economy-wide climate mitigation policies aligned with limiting warming to 1·5°C. The scenarios used a middle-of-the-road shared socioeconomic pathway for population and gross domestic product growth, climate impact data from Jägermeyr and colleagues, Thornton and colleagues, and Nelson and colleagues, and dietary targets based on the EAT–Lancet healthy reference diet, with model simulations conducted from 2020 to 2050. We then assessed the effect of these measures in isolation and in combination in a bundled scenario. To further understand the interactions between these measures, we conducted a decomposition analysis that distinguishes between the individual effects of a measure (effect when implemented alone), total effects (its contribution within the bundle), and interaction effects (the difference between total and individual effects). This approach aimed to show complementarities and trade-offs that emerge when multiple measures are implemented simultaneously. Findings Our analysis showed that individual measures in isolation are insufficient to achieve high-level environmental objectives and might generate unintended consequences. In contrast, bundling measures produces co-benefits: avoiding 50% of projected agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and almost 20% of anticipated land conversion, while moderating food price increases associated with ambitious climate change mitigation policies. Our decomposition analysis further shows that measures can have varying effects across different dimensions. Although dietary shifts and climate mitigation policies are the largest drivers of environmental benefits (each contributing to a median decline of >10 percentage points in non-CO 2 emissions and 5 percentage points in agricultural land use globally), productivity improvements and reducing food loss and waste play essential roles in moderating price increases (each contributing to a median decline of >5 percentage points in average prices). Interpretation This study highlights the importance of implementing coordinated approaches to food system transformation and climate change mitigation rather than relying on isolated interventions. Comprehensive transformation requires understanding how supply-side and demand-side changes can interact with climate mitigation policies, enabling policy makers to design intervention packages that maximise benefits while minimising trade-offs across environmental, economic, and social dimensions.

Sundiang, Marina [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (Unite↗
DOE OSTI2025

Learning and discovering multiple solutions using physics-informed neural networks with random initialization and deep ensemble

In this work we explore the capability of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) to discover multiple solutions. Many real-world phenomena governed by nonlinear differential equations (DEs), such as fluid flow, exhibit multiple solutions under the same conditions, yet capturing this solution multiplicity remains a significant challenge. A key difficulty lies in providing appropriate initial conditions or guesses, as widely used time-marching schemes and Newton’s method are highly sensitive to these choices when solving complex computational problems. While machine learning models, particularly PINNs, have shown promise in solving DEs, their ability to capture multiple solutions remains underexplored. In this work, we propose a simple and practical approach using PINNs to learn and discover multiple solutions. We first demonstrate that PINNs, when combined with random initialization and deep ensemble method—originally developed for uncertainty quantification—can effectively uncover multiple solutions to nonlinear ordinary and partial DEs. Although training large ensembles of PINNs may appear computationally demanding, this can be done efficiently using vectorization techniques supported by modern deep learning frameworks, allowing many networks to be trained simultaneously. Our approach highlights the critical role of initialization in shaping solution diversity, addressing an often-overlooked aspect of machine learning for scientific computing. Furthermore, we propose utilizing PINN-generated solutions as initial conditions or initial guesses for conventional numerical solvers to enhance accuracy and efficiency in capturing multiple solutions. Extensive numerical experiments, including the Allen–Cahn equation and cavity flow, where our approach successfully identifies both stable and unstable solutions, validate the effectiveness of our method. These findings establish a general and efficient framework for addressing solution multiplicity in nonlinear DEs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimators and Fusers for Fiber Delay Estimation Using Environmental Measurements

The properties of deployed network fiber are affected by environmental factors due to their exposure to the elements. Particularly for quantum networks, the resultant delay variations may have significant impacts due to the extreme sensitivity of synchronization, coincidence counting, and other critical operations. In this paper, the delays of 15 km aerial-inground fiber connections are measured, and effects due to temperature, humidity and wind speed are analyzed over multiple periods spanning four seasons of a year. Machine learning methods are first utilized to reveal surprisingly pronounced effects of humidity on the delay, in addition to the expected temperature and its seasonal variations. Estimator and fusion methods are developed to estimate the delay using temperature, humidity and wind speed measurements, by utilizing smooth Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and nonsmooth Ensemble of Trees (EOT) methods. Measurements from winter and summer periods are temporally fused using twelve different methods, and eight methods provide estimates for the delay throughout the year with median test errors under 1.28%. The results reveal distinct temperature-humidity trends across the seasons, and the ability of estimator and temporal fusion methods to exploit them for estimating the delay. These results constitute a case study of machine learning analytical results, wherein generalization equations explain the performance of various estimator and fuser methods.

Rao, Nageswara [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000234085941)↗